Correlating Factors: Run Defense & ATS Success

Good handicappers know how to make lines based on power ratings, home field and public perception. Other numbers, however, that are easier to identify mustn’t be overlooked, either, when analyzing games and point spreads each week. Here’s one anyone can utilize: Run defense. This is one of the basics when it comes to winning football. And speaking of basics, if you can’t stop the run, the opponent doesn’t need to pass. This is something that was evident when Nebraska and Oklahoma... 

Winning Football: “D” Comes Before “O”

by Jim Feist So what do you prefer: offense or defense? Most casual bettors examining NFL picks like offense, which is why Monday night football games often take more action on the over. There have been some terrific offensive football teams that last few years, such as USC and Texas in 2005, and pro passing attacks like the Rams, Colts, Dick Vermeil’s Chiefs, the 2007 Patriots and this year’s Saints, Chargers, Packers, Pats and even the surprising Bills. However, name the last few Super... 

NFL Week 7 Player Props and Betting Predictions

In my Week 6 player props story, there weren’t too many immediate results for us to look back on – in other words I tackled a few season-ending totals for NFL players, such as 50-yard field goals for Oakland’s Sebastian Janikowski (he was two-yards shy of adding one in Week 6), sacks for Minnesota’s Jared Allen (he added No. 9.5 against the Bears on Sunday) or total starts for Denver’s Tim Tebow (he makes No. 1 this week at putrid Miami). The only Week 6 specific prop I addressed was on... 

The Must-Win Game Myth

The pressure’s on every Saturday and Sunday! With football season in full swing, you’ll hear media prognosticators proclaim with regularity, “This team doesn’t want to start 0-4. Therefore, this is a must-win game that they have to win!” All right, so be it. That’s as superficial a statement as one can find, which is often the case with newspaper, radio and TV “experts.” But is it true? Of course not. Teams want to win every game, of course, but we... 

Texas Two Step. The 2011 World Series Preview

In this Piece Rob will examine the 2011 World series from a historical, statistical and tactical point of view. In the 2011 regular season, St. Louis finished six games behind Texas. From 1905 through the 2011 MLB League Championship round, when MLB teams trailed their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by six regular-season games, they have posted a 4-7 (.364) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. The St. Louis Cardinals in general have a 2-2 best-of-7 MLB playoff series... 

NFL Betting: Turnovers Can Turn the Tide

Last week the Baltimore Ravens had just 267 total yards in a Sunday night showdown with the Jets and were a measly 6 of 18 on third down. In addition, they averaged 2.8 yards per rush. What a terrible offensive performance! Oh, and by the way the Ravens won the game, 34-17. Say what? The difference was turnovers, with the Jets coughing it up 4 times (3 fumbles, 1 pick). “The best defensive effort I thought I had ever seen or the most amazing defensive performance I thought I’d ever seen... 

Anticipating Low Scoring Second Halves

Handicappers are always looking for angles to replicate week after week in an attempt to cull profit from the books. Here’s a tried and true oldie: Look at second halves to go under the total if the home team has a big lead. We’ve already seen it this season. In Week 3, the Ravens blitzed the Rams and led 27-0 at the half. They played it conservative in the second half, relied on their defense, and finished up with 17 total points scored in the second half. The biggest halftime deficit this season... 

2011-12 Winnipeg Jets Predictions

If you have ever met a Winnipeger — and they are everywhere because it seems like everyone leaves the city when they are old enough to do so — you have heard about the Jets. A Winnipeg native is incapable of speaking for more than two minutes without mentioning the Jets. It’s a law. The town was obsessed with their team when the Jets were first there, obsessed with their loss when they left for Phoenix, and obsessed with the possibility of a new team coming to the city — something that seemed... 

NFL Handicapping: Beware of Early Season Phonies!

So…are we all set for the Lions/Bills Super Bowl? Because after three weeks, those were two of the remaining three undefeated teams in the NFL, along with the Packers. To put that in perspective, before the season started the Lions were 40-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, the Packers 5-to-1 and the Bills, fresh off a 4-12 season, were 100-to-1. Yet, there they were at the end of September among the NFL elite in the standings. I bring this up to emphasis the importance of patience. A hot start is nice... 

2011-12 NHL Predictions: Buffalo Sabres & Chicago Blackhawks

Jeff’s 2011-12 Eastern Conference Spotlight team: Buffalo Sabres The Buffalo Sabres finished 7th in the Eastern Conference (3rd in Northeast) last season and for a Lindy Ruff coached team it was considered a down year. Ruff, the longest-tenured coach in the NHL, is entering his 14th year behind the Sabres bench. The guy is one of the best head coaches in all of Hockey. With a career record of 526-390-78, reaching the playoffs 8 out of the previous 13 seasons, a Stanley Cup Finals appearance,...