Steve Janus - 5* Missouri Valey Bookie Beatdown ***8-2 NCAAB RUN***

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Matt Fargo - Fargo’s **10** NBA ENFORCER (AWESOME 14-7 NBA RUN)

Matt is coming off a tough overtime loss with Portland but is still on an AWESOME 14-7 NBA run and his streak going back to last year remains RED HOT as he is a COMMANDING 48-28-1 (63.2%) L77! He is back with a HUGE REPORT Tuesday and it is a BEAUTY that results in an EASY COVER! His EPIC 102-59-4 (63.4%) 2012 Rampage rolls on! Do not even think about missing this!

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Featured Free NBA Pick: Steve Janus

Utah Jazz +9

Pick Analysis:

The Jazz really put forth a disappointing effort against the short-handed Knicks last night. Utah has now lost three of their last four overall. The Jazz will be extremely motivated to win this game, and they are definitely talented enough to keep the final score under double-digits. A lot of people will be quick to jump on Indiana because the Jazz are playing their second game of a back-to-back road set, but I don’t think they used much energy at all last night.

The Pacers scored a season-low 81-points in a rare home loss to the Magic on Saturday. The Pacers have been inconsistent all season offensively. Utah doesn’t feature a great defense, but they do have a strong presence in the paint, which will force Indiana to shoot a lot of outside shots.

Utah is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record while Indiana is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. BET THE JAZZ!

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We are in phase two right now, conference play. Conference play is unique in that schools are not traveling as much. A few years ago, North Carolina opened the season at Santa Clara, meaning a team from the southeast was traveling all the way across the country. After which the Tar Heels took on teams from the Big 10, Mountain West, the SEC and the Pac 10. That is a lot of travel time as well as facing teams they had never seen before. This makes matchups often difficult and upsets more likely (North Carolina lost 77-66 at Santa Clara as a 13-point favorite).

Conference play means playing teams in your region, which cuts down significantly on travel time. It also means players are facing other players they’ve seen last year, probably several times, and playing in facilities they have seen before. Home/road play is certainly a key element for handicappers to pay attention to, but with shorter distances and familiar places to go to, it can be less a factor with certain teams because they’ve been to the opposition’s gym before.

I recall one season Buffalo off the MAC came off an impressive win over Eastern Michigan, followed by a close 84-82 loss in overtime at a very good Northern Illinois squad. Buffalo got the cover in both games. The Bulls were experienced and not caught off guard by these teams, because Buffalo had beaten both a year ago. In fact, the prior season Buffalo beat Northern Illinois twice, 86-80 at home and again in the MAC tournament, 73-66. That’s three games against each other in less than a year. Familiarity may breed contempt in some social circles, but it helps in preparation in college basketball.

As conference play continues this month, it’s important to look back at how these teams did in recent years, especially with teams loaded with seniors. Another example could be a team with a significant rebounding advantage in the frontcourt taking on a team with a small frontcourt. Again, go back and look at recent games. Did they own the glass the last meeting? How about the last three meetings? Conference play offers many opportunities to do this, especially with teams facing each other two and even three times a year ago.

This also ties into emotion, which is much more apart of college athletics than the pros. Simply put, a home team has more chances to get fired up and play hard in front of the screaming home fans than on the road. At home, even bad teams can look like World champs for 48 minutes.

Another reason is confidence. Pro athletes are usually in their mid to late twenties or thirties, when confidence is most often developed. But college athletes are aged 18-21, when young players are still learning the game and – just as important – young minds are still learning about confidence. And when a college road team, for example, gets behind by ten points, psychologically a team can lose confidence or “pack it in” with the thinking, “Well, it’s just not our night. We’ll play better next time when we’re at home.”

Professional handicappers take careful note of rosters and identify which teams have an excess of youth and ones that have experience. You’ll often find new coaches who are trying to build a winning program will first try and get their young players to learn to win at home and to build confidence and excite the fan base. Once they’ve developed that, the next step is to teach them how to win away from home. Sports bettors take note: This is a slow process that can take years to develop – but sometimes never does.

Smart handicappers pay close attention to this and it takes knowledge, experience and hours of study to begin to identify when these young teams might be beginning to blossom. From a bettor’s perspective, for example, this offers opportunities “to play on” a young team at home and “go against them” when traveling.

Another reason for the home/road disparity is comfort. That is, players will practice at their own gym for a home game, where they know the layout of a building, a place where the temperature and even lighting conditions are always the same. If a guard shoots one-hundred jump shots at practice and gets in a groove, he knows the next day he’ll be taking those same jump shots in the same building from the same place on the floor he just hit, say, 75% in practice. But, on the road, a player’s comfort level can be very different. Players are taking bus rides, sleeping in airports or on planes, and even changing time zones. The comfort level is tweaked, and then they have to practice and play in unfamiliar surroundings, all of which contributes to the athletes not being at the same comfort level as when they’re home.

With big-name college programs, history and mystique can also play a role. Visiting teams walking into the home arena of Duke, Indiana, North Carolina or Kentucky can be awed by the championship banners hanging overhead and the huge crowds rooting against them. Athletes won’t admit that they’re “nervous” about playing those schools, but deep in their minds they can be thinking, “We have no shot here. Let’s just play this thing and get out of here. We’ll get them later in the season – at our place!”

Sometimes schools have longer road trips than others, too. The Denver Pioneers happen to be in the Sun Belt conference (go figure), where they have to face mostly teams from the southeast, such as Arkansas State, Florida International, Arkansas Little Rock and Western Kentucky. Denver has to cross time zones to play its road games in conference play, just as their opponents have to when traveling to Denver.

Many teams can look like world-beaters at home, and then go on the road the next game and look as sloppy as a kindergarten pick-up game. Sometimes a combination of factors can provide good go-against spots. And it’s not just the big-name schools where this takes place, either. College basketball offers great opportunities for handicappers as there are so many games and extreme home/road disparities like this. You can find excellent betting edges in college hoops by looking at large conferences like the ACC, Big East and Pac 10, as well as smaller conferences such as the MAC, Sun Belt or WAC.

Also, when tournament time rolls around, you’ll find teams playing on a neutral court. I examine the road records of both schools to see how each played away from home that season in an attempt to find edges. Some teams will be playing in their home state and may have a more fans in the stands than their opponents, which creates a “near home court edge,” which can sometimes mean making an adjustment in the number, though it’s usually not as prominent as the normal home court edge.

So make sure you break down home/road stats in college hoops for teams and even individual players. If you see what you perceive to be a soft line, look carefully at how each team scores and defends at home and on the road. Just as miners and archeologists till the soil to unearth hidden gems, successful sports handicappers dig through stats and situations to find bad lines and winning plays.

You’ll hear professional and college athletes say things like this all year, be it in basketball’s post or regular season. College basketball teams often play twice against conference opponents during the regular season, with each team splitting a game between their home court and the opponent’s. Other times, teams can meet on a neutral court during tournament play and sometimes teams meet a third time in February and March during tourney time.

What’s important to understand is that the site that a basketball game is played is extremely important, especially from a bettor’s point of view. Spend some time going through the records – straight up and against the spread – of your favorite college and pro hoops’ teams and you’ll be amazed at some of the differences.

Some teams will shoot lights out at home, averaging 78 points per game. Yet, the same players can turn into certified masons on the road averaging 59 points per game. It’s not uncommon to find college basketball teams with an overall record of 11-10. But if you dig deeper, you may find that team is 10-1 straight up at home, but 1-9 on the road. Some teams aren’t so extreme, but you’ll find many that are. Clearly, something (actually, a combination of many things) is taking place. For serious sports bettors, it’s important to identify these valuable wagering facets, apply meaning, and incorporate into your handicapping.

It’s not relegated to college hoops, either. Examine some of the home/road records of NBA teams over the years. One of the best examples I ever found was the Denver Nuggets in 2000-01. That season, the Nuggets were an average team with a 40-42 overall record. But going a step further and breaking it down, something remarkable takes shape: Denver had a winning spread record at home where they were 29-12 straight up, yet on the road, a completely different team showed up, where the Nuggets were 11-30 straight up and 16-25 against the spread! All of a sudden, that’s far from a near-.500 team, isn’t it? The Nuggets were one of the best teams in the NBA at home, and one of the worst on the road – both straight up and against the number!

Differences like this take place every basketball season, both in college and the pros. There are many reasons as to why this takes place. One is pride, which I mentioned at the beginning with the quote, “We’ll get ‘em on our court.” College basketball players at home have ten to fifteen thousand fans screaming behind them to play well, while booing the other team the entire game. In addition, professional basketball players know that at home the fans in the stands are paying their salaries, so it’s more likely pros will put forth a one-hundred percent effort to try and get a win for the home fans. It doesn’t make a lot of financial sense for players to give a lackadaisical effort and send the fans home unhappy, especially when fans are paying anywhere from $20-$200 for a ticket. That’s like someone buying a brand new car, then having it fall apart on the drive home from the dealership. That automobile company would lose its fan base – and its business – fast.

When teams go on the road they are not always inclined to give 100%, especially weak teams. Psychologically players can be thinking, “We’re not supposed to win here, so let’s just get this over with and head home.” This is why good coaches are so rare. Good ones have the capacity to motivate players to give it their all, whether they’re at home or not.

Since then I’ve made basketball betting lines for one of the top offshore sports books, and documented by the Sports Monitor several times one of the Top 3 in combined college and pro basketball selections.

It’s not easy. However, oddsmakers do make errors on lines, and there are many situational angles that can one can use to identify winning edges in hoops. Many bettors are overwhelmed by the amount of basketball games each season that it can sometimes get discouraging. I look at it very differently: So many games in both the colleges and the pros provide more opportunities for peaks, hot streaks and bad lines to pounce on each week. You just have to know how, and where, to look.

College basketball scheduling is very important. One angle I look at is road favorites playing their first game in a back-to-back situation. What you have here is a potential play on the home dog for several reasons. Coaches of road favorites in that situation often look to rest players in the second half for two reasons. One is that if they get a big lead early, as a road favorite is expected to, then they start thinking about the next game, which is tomorrow night. Coaches will look to rest starters more than normal in that situation because he knows he has to play the next night.

The second part of that is: What happens if the road favorite finds itself trailing instead of leading? If they are way behind on the road, a coach can do the same strategy, bench his best players late. Not because he has a lead, of course, but because he’s writing the game off, in a sense, to save his best for a better effort the next night. The home dog has several edges taking on a team playing the first game of a back-to-back spot.

Don’t get discouraged! It’s not easy, but winning at basketball is very possible. And don’t take my word for it: Ask some of my competitors, or examine my record. There’s an old saying, “Take your job seriously but not yourself.” I would have to admit I’m guilty of both!

Many things happen over the course of a long season. Some teams play great basketball in December and January, only to break down from injuries or run out of steam down the stretch. Villanova is a good example, winning 16 of 17 to start the season, then breaking down with injuries and poor play, finishing 3-10 SU, 1-12 ATS. Four years ago Clemson started 17-0, then failed to even make the Big Dance after a 4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS run. Kansas may have won the title three years ago, but six years ago it was a very different story: The Jayhawks started 20-1, only to go 3-6 straight up and 1-8 against the spread the last nine games. They never made it to the Final Four because of a 64-63 loss to Bucknell as a 13½-point favorite.

Other times an easy early season schedule, youth, bad coaching, untimely injuries, bad luck, poor team chemistry or a combination of these can cut down a potentially great team. Youth and a loss of its best players certainly fell Florida after winning back-to-back titles and prevented a North Carolina repeat in 2010.

No. 1 seed Pitt saw its hopes crushed in a loss to Butler, 71-70. This is nothing new. A few years ago No. 2 seed Georgetown took itself out of the tournament, blowing a 46-29 lead by trying to stall against Davidson with far too much time left.

Four years ago Wisconsin was a No. 2 seed, but suffered a key late season loss in 6-11 Brian Butch, their leading rebounder and third-leading scorer. They weren’t the same group, getting smacked by Ohio State in the Big 10 tourney and an upset loss to UNLV in the Big Dance.

It is very easy for sports bettors to look into trends to try and predict the future. Trends can be helpful if there are reasons to support it. For example, from a betting perspective, what stands out about the last nine Finals Fours?

Score – Line

2010

Butler 52 – 1.5

Michigan State 50 – 125

West Virginia 57 – 130

Duke 78 – -2.5

2009:

Michigan State 82 – 135

UConn 73 – 4

North Carolina 83 – 7.5

Villanova 69 – 160

2008:

Kansas 84 – 158

North Carolina 66 – 3

UCLA 63 – 135

Memphis 78 – 3

2007:

Georgetown 60 – 1

Ohio St. 67 – 130

UCLA 66 – 131

Florida 76 – 3

2006:

G. Mason 58 – 132

Florida 73 – -6

LSU 45 – -2

UCLA 59 – 123

2005:

Louisville 57 – 144

Illiniois 72 – -3

Michigan St. 71 – 153

North Carolina 87 – -2

2004:

Georgia Tech 67 – 139

Oklahoma St. 65 – -4

UConn 79 – -2

Duke 78 – 144

2003:

Marquette 61 – -4½

Kansas 94 – 153½

Syracuse 95 – 153

Texas 84 – -3

2002:

Indiana 73 – 134

Oklahoma 64 -6½

Maryland 97 – 168

Kansas 88 – -1½

What stands out is that it has been the day of the dog. The underdog is 10-7 against the number, with nine dogs winning straight up. In addition, the games have gone 10-8 “over” the total, although the “under” is 6-4 the last five years. You can even make an argument that this would be the right time of the college hoops’ season to take a shot with the dog on the money-line. However, this is where one needs patience, because trends can also be a fool’s paradise. The last six years the favorites are 8-4 ATS. So if you had used that dog strategy the last two years you would have gone 4-8.

If you go back to the previous three Final Fours before that survey, 1999-01, we find Duke topping Maryland 95-84, Arizona blowing out Michigan State 80-61, Michigan State beating Wisconsin 53-41, Florida topping North Carolina 71-59, UConn beating Ohio State 64-58 and Duke surviving Michigan State 68-62. What stands out is that the favorite won and covered in five of six, for a hefty 5-1 spread record.

Even looking at totals, a similar pattern emerges. The last nine years the “over” has gone 10-8 in the Final Four. The three years before that the “under” prevailed at a 5-1 clip. That’s just 13-11 under the last 12 years. All of a sudden, those who look solely at trends as the key to the sports betting kingdom are stuck at close to a .500 winning percentage ATS.

For the record, going back the last 14 years, there have been 18 “unders” and 14 “overs” in the Final Four, with 16 dogs covering while 16 favorites have gotten the money. Again, trends are worth examining, but there needs to be reasons behind them if you’re serious about putting down hard earned money on a side. Perhaps the most significant stat that stands out is that 13 of the 16 dogs that covered ended up winning the game outright, which shows how competitive and relatively evenly matched the games become when teams get this far in the season.

Upsets happen a lot in March and will continue. Sometimes it’s matchups, but other times it is interest and motivation. That explains the demise of Tennessee, pulling a no-show against Michigan knowing that their coach is likely gone.

The No. 8-seeded Wolverines built on a 33-29 halftime lead by opening the second half on a 19-2 run to put the game away. The Vols failed to close back within single figures thereafter due in large part to 18 turnovers and numerous missed shots and defensive breakdowns. “We unraveled,” Bruce Pearl said.

Michigan became the first team in NCAA tournament history to win a game without making a free throw; the Wolverines missed their only free-throw attempt. The margin of defeat was the largest in Pearl’s six seasons with the Vols.

Motivation is huge this time of the year, not just for the Big Dance but all these other tournaments going on. Who wants to be here?

Who really cares about playing? Some teams look at invitations to the NIT or CBI as a reward for an overachieving season, while others look at it as a snub as they had their hopes set on the Big Dance.

Missouri was a great example a few years ago of a team in turmoil just packing it in, and it wasn’t a surprise to see them exit the Big 12 tourney fast, failing to cover in their only game. That put the Tigers 2-11 SU, 2-10-1 ATS the last 13 games! Like Tennessee might have now, they had a coach leaving the program and gave up on the season weeks ago.

Motivation is important to bring up. Some teams underachieved during the regular season, but now have a second chance in this third season to make amends. Pay just as much attention to this next week, too, because you can identify teams that are delighted to make the NCAA tourney and others that are disappointed to have to settle for an NIT bid. The NIT offers excellent examples of teams that really don’t want to be there.

It’s more important to look at how a team is performing over the last few weeks, rather than the whole season. This gives a much clearer picture of where the team is. Indiana was a good example a few years ago. The Hoosiers weren’t a bad team, they ended the regular season 17-10. They just stumbled in January and early February, losing 7 of 8, before regrouping. What made their situation appear even worse was the controversy surrounding then-head coach Mike Davis. The appearance was of a team in total chaos and collapse, but they then regrouped and won 5 in a row, even upsetting Michigan State late in the regular season.

Coaching is another factor to look at. Old timers like John Wooden, Dean Smith and Red Auerbach were masterful at finding ways, day in and day out, to keep teams focused and motivated. Roy Williams, Bill Self, Mark Few and Coach K are current day master motivators. Their teams can be beat, but they are rarely outhustled.

When examining whether you think a team might be packing in the season or disappointed in an NIT bid, check the head coach of that team. Look at other places that coach has been. Did his teams win? Did they pull upsets regularly? Did they play defense? Did they excel in tournament play, or fall flat too often? Coaching, motivation and interest make major differences in how a team plays on the court and ultimately against the number.

Even in the NIT or College Insider Tournament, there will be unusual matchups of teams from different conferences and different styles of play. This is why looking back on regular season meetings can be helpful. You know what a team’s style of play by this point is. 

Coaches, for example, can change what had been a slow, defensive-oriented team from a year ago into a wide-open, run-and-gun style. This is evident in team scoring averages and can even be noticeable in over/unders from season to season.

Early regular season games feature a lot of non-conference action. This can provide good box scores to judge how a school from a smaller conference did when stepping up in competition against the big boys. However, you must remember that those games often took place last November — a long time ago. Teams can get significantly better or worse since then. So examine the starting five and the bench for those games.

There are all kinds of factors to carefully examine. While the big man is so important to winning championships in the NBA, college basketball tournaments find more of a premium on strong guard play. The sparkplug guard handles the ball, controls the tempo, and can go on a hot run from three-point land at any moment. Remember that the college three-point shot is closer to the basket than the NBA trey. In addition, poor guard play can result in too many turnovers, which can be a killer to a team’s momentum and hopes of advancing.

Here are some points to keep in mind when looking back on box scores from earlier this season to see how it might be relevant during tourney play:

1. Importance: Did a team play a tough schedule? Look back at some of the key conference games they played or early non-conference action that featured marquee or step-up games. Did the game give it their all or even pull some upsets? Did they play tough defense, or give up defensively, knowing they were supposed to lose? How teams played in those step-up games can give you a clue in March to their toughness and confidence.

2. Familiarity: Teams will face their conference opponents two and three times a season. From season to season, players and coaches get a much better understanding of their opponents’ tendencies and strategies – and how to take advantage. When teams meet up in March that haven’t played one another, examine their schedule to see who they did play. More to the point, did they play teams with similar styles? And how did they do? A slow, defensive-oriented Big 10 school, for instance, may have struggled against an uptempo Pac 10 or SEC squad. That should jump off the page.

3. History: An advantage for sports bettors is to examine the recent history of the teams if they meet again in the Big Dance. In the ACC, you can see how Duke and North Carolina have fared against each other the last few years. Is there a distinct home/road differential? Does one team “own” another? Is this a revenge situation? Carefully eyeing the past can reveal clues about the present and future.

Also, has a team from smaller conferences made it this far into the tourney before? Some schools can be wide-eyed about being here, especially ones with few juniors and seniors. Plus, does a coach have a track record in March? Does he have a good track record, or a bad one?

4. Defense: Late in the season, if two teams are battling each other for the lead in the conference, a head to head matchup can bring out the best in their defenses. March tournament play has even greater importance — win or go home! Defense can be more intense this time of the season, which is important if you are a totals player. There’s nothing sweeter than cashing a totals ticket in the second half so you don’t have to sweat the final frantic minutes!

Big name schools often end up playing for the title. Florida of the SEC took home back to back national championships by beating UCLA and Ohio State in 2006 and ’07. Then it was Kansas, North Carolina and Duke winning titles again the last three years.

In 2005, Illinois, North Carolina, Louisville and Michigan State met in the Final Four, and in recent years we’ve seen Texas, Syracuse, Indiana, Oklahoma, Duke, Arizona and Maryland. Big names, all of them, with no surprise schools like Pacific, Winthrop, Ohio or Stony Brook ever sneaking in. Large, high profile schools have big athletic budgets and enough scholarships to attract some of the top basketball talent, which is a key to their success.

However, this doesn’t mean smaller, lesser-known schools can’t compete with the big boys at times, especially when you look at one 40-minute game. There are countless examples for sports bettors, including last season. Who did Duke beat for the national title? Butler. This is the time of year for upsets and surprises.

Think for a moment: You don’t remember seeing Duke much in the Big Dance the previous three years ago, did you? That’s because the Blue Devils got upset in the first round, losing to VCU, 79-77. Three years ago they nipped Belmont, 71-70, then lost to West Virginia, and in 2009 Duke survived two games before Villanova blew them out, 77-54.

In 2007, UNLV upset Georgia Tech and Wisconsin on its way to the Sweet 16. Five years ago the big story was George Mason out of the Colonial Athletic Association. The Patriots made it to the Final Four by knocking off Michigan State, North Carolina and UConn. They were 5, 6 and 8 point dogs in those games. Six years ago in the first round alone, Wisconsin-Milwaukee upset Alabama 83-73, UConn squeaked by Central Florida 77-71 as a 19-point favorite, Bucknell stunned Kansas 64-63, and Vermont took Syracuse to overtime and won 60-57.

Did you forget all those surprises? With so many games in March and the big names that usually end up in the Final Four, it is easy to forget the early rounds. How about tiny Holy Cross few years ago? The Crusaders had to face Dwyane Wade and Marquette in the tournament opener and as a 10-point dog, Holy Cross covered in a 72-68 game. Holy Cross also gave mighty Kansas, with Drew Gooden and Nick Collison, a run for their money. At first glance, some of the games look like mismatches, but a good handicapper is skilled in the art of careful analysis and patience. Every year one or two little known teams make memorable runs.

Butler was the big story a year ago but the Bulldogs were no stranger to pulling surprises. A few years ago, Butler topped Mississippi State 47-46 and then upset Louisville, 79-71. Which brings up a good point for serious sports bettors: It is not wise to take big favorites on the money-line. The payoff is poor, and successful sports wagering is as much about money management as it is picking winners. Taking a shot with a big dog who you think might be able to hang in there is much smarter than wagering $900 to win $100, for example, on a minus-900 favorite. Surprising upsets happen all the time.

Several things are happening. One is the old NFL axiom, “On any given Sunday” one team can beat another, regardless of record or talent. Sometimes the better team simply has a bad night shooting the basketball, or the big underdog can’t miss. One of the most memorable upsets came in the 1985 NCAA Finals when Villanova, a +10 dog, upset mighty Georgetown, 66-64. The Wildcats hit 22-of-28 field goals, a sizzling 78%. It would be tough to beat ANY underdog that shoots 78%!

Another reason is that some smaller schools happen to have NBA-caliber talent. Miami of Ohio made a memorable run in 1999 with future NBA talent Wally Szczerbiak. Miami went 24-8 SU/17-14 ATS that season and upset Washington in the NCAA tournament, 59-58 as a +2 dog, beat Utah 66-58 as a +8 dog before falling to Kentucky as a +10 dog. You never know: schools like St. Peter’s, Old Dominion and Wofford just might be showcasing future NBA talent this month.

Other times a small school has a great coach or a collection of talented kids who play tough defense and believe in themselves enough to upset traditional powers. You may recall a March tourney where the Detroit Titans upset UCLA 56-53 and Weber State beat mighty North Carolina 76-74 as a +14 dog. Teams are generally motivated to play in the NCAA tournament, but this isn’t always the case with the NIT. Some teams that were hoping to get to the Big Dance are disappointed at being selected for lower-seeded tournies and aren’t always focused for their best effort.

Sometimes there are look-ahead spots, where a high-seeded team might be looking past an opponent it might not take seriously. That’s what appeared to happen in the game I mentioned earlier, Kansas against Holy Cross. Kansas needed a second half push to top the Crusaders 70-59 as a 29-point favorite. It also wouldn’t have been the first time a small school upset a big-name program. Don’t take big favorites on the money-line and don’t simply lay the points on the more famous conference or school without doing your homework, because tourney time is loaded with surprises.

Michigan – I’m a massive Michigan fan, so there is some clear bias involved with having this team here. That being said, you would be making a mistake to ignore this squad.

They are likely to be a 10 or 11 seed — assuming they can stay off the bubble like they are right now — so they are in a good position to do some damage as a lower seed.

This is a team with a whole lot of heart. They started conference play at 1-6. Most teams would have quit, but they fought back and finished up 9-9, including a sweep of hated rivals Michigan State.

Considering they have little older leadership — there are no seniors on the squad — that’s impressive. Also impressive s how tough they played some good teams — they lost to Syracuse by just three, took Kansas to overtime, played Ohio State tough, and only lost to Wisconsin thanks to an impossible three pointer at the buzzer from the Badgers.

They really raise their game when the stakes are the highest, and that bodes very well for tournament time. On top of it all, they have two players that have proven to be special, and who are only getting better with experience. Sophomore Darius Morris has been a revelation, and freshman Tim Hardaway Jr. would have been conference Rookie of the Year if it weren’t for the freak of nature that is Jared Sullinger.

This is just the kind of team that can win a couple of tournament games, led by a coach that knows how to get a lot out of not very much when the chips are down.

San Diego State – Continuing with the Michigan connection you have to take a good look at the Aztecs and former Wolverines Coach Steve Fisher. Remember, Fisher is the guy who took over Michigan in 1989 in the final week of the season as an interim coach and led them to a national title. He obviously knows how to prepare a good team for the dance.

It’s hard to consider a team ranked No. 6 in the country a surprise, but after the second loss to BYU it seems like the Aztecs are an afterthought. While the losses to BYU weren’t good — especially the second one — you have to remember that those are the only games they lost all year. They have a top-level talent in Kawhi Leonard, and a very nice supporting cast.

After the misstep against the Cougars this team could be poised to be media darlings all over again in the tournament.

Belmont – Belmont would only be a surprise if you aren’t paying a lot of attention to mid-majors this year. They are getting a lot of buzz from people who follow the smaller leagues, and they have all year.

The Bears have a whole lot going for them that they will need to pull of some big wins.

Experience- – check. This is their fourth tournament appearance in six years, and they have come close to making a big splash more than once.

Depth — check. They can go 11 deep effectively, and can mix up size and speed depending on who is on the court, so matchups can be tough. What they look like at any time bears little resemblance to what they will look like later in the game, so game planning is tough, and teams will be frustrated.

Shooting — check. They can make the three pointers rain down.

Success this year — check. They have already won 30 games and their conference championship this year. If they get the right matchups in the tournament these guys have the chance to wreck more than a few brackets.

Arizona – For much of Lute Olsen’s time at Arizona this team was a real tournament force. Unfortunately, things turned into a soap opera in Olsen’s later years with the program, and they have been climbing out of a big hole.

They hired the right guy in Sean Miller, and after some growing pains last year and early this year he has this team right on track. They are coming out of the Pac-10, and that conference gets as much respect as it deserves right now — not much — so people won’t be giving them a lot of credit.

Miller is a master at tournament preparation, though, and he has his team playing well right now. Miller has an elite player in Derrick Williams, and a back court that is very deep and potent from beyond the arc.

That’s a lot for him to work with, and more than enough for him to make some noise.

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