2. Pittsburgh – Panthers return just 10 starters. Can’t see them starting 10-0 like last season. That being said, we will see how good this team is early. They have a road game vs Utah on September 2nd followed by a visit from ex-Big East foe Miami Florida. If this team is 4-0 heading into their October 9th matchup vs Notre Dame, then we can talk Pitt as a legit BCS team. Can’t Miss Trend… Pitt just 3-9 ATS last 12 November games

3. South Florida – New HC Skip Holtz takes over a talented Bulls team. This team has underachieved the past couple years. I have chased good money after bad on several occasions thinking that So.Fla finally was turning a corner. Holtz won B2B C-USA Titles while at ECU and this team is better than any he had there. Can’t Miss Trend…South Florida is 0-5 ATS last 5 vs Cincy

4. Cincinatti – These guys are B2B Big East Champs! New HC Butch Jones takes over just as he did for Brian Kelly at Central Michigan. Tough to ask them to go undefeated again in Big East play. But the offense is loaded and the defense sound. Can’t Miss Trend… Cincy is 3-14-1 L18 vs West Va SU

5. UConn Huskies- We find out what this Huskies team is all about when they face Michigan this week. HC Randy Edsall has the talent to compete for the Big East Title this year. With 8 starters returning on both sides of the ball, this team is a veteran bunch. Can’t Miss Trend…Uconn is 6-1 ATS last 7 vs Rutgers

6. Rutgers – Last year has to be looked at as a disappointment for Rutgers. This year they have a tougher schedule and have to replace some key components on both sides of the ball. They do have returning QB Tom Savage, but this team will face some struggles. Can’t Miss Trend…Rutgers is 5-1 ATS last 6 games at Pitt

7. Syracuse – HC Doug Marrone is in year 2 and should at least equal last year’s conference win total of 1. Look for a bit of overachieving from the Orange as the coach promises a more aggressive defense and some no-huddle offense. With 1,000 rusher back and their entire O-line, the Orange should score. The defense returns 10 starters and should improve on this side of the ball as well. Can’t Miss Trend…SU is 8-3 ATS last 11 September road games

8. Louisville – This team is terrible. New HC Charlie Strong inherits a team that needs a monumental face lift. With just 12 returning starters, and new schemes being used under the new coaching staff, this is clearly a rebuilding year. Can’t Miss Trend… UL is 0-5 ATS last 5 vs Syracuse

2. Iowa Hawkeyes – Now with all eyes on the Buckeyes, look for the value with this bruising Big 10 squad. QB Ricky Stanzi will have a great senior season. They get OSU, Penn State and Wisconsin all at home.  This team will be favored in every game this year, including at home vs the Buckeyes. A legit BCS team. Can’t Miss Trend… Iowa 4-1 ATS last 5 at home vs Wisconsin

3. Wisconsin – Badgers look to build on their bowl win over the Hurricanes. A tough schedule as they get Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State all on the road, plus the Buckeyes at home. Badgers do bring back 16 starters and should have their usual power run game offense and solid defense. This team can easily go 10-2 losing just to Iowa and Ohio State. Can’t Miss Trend.. Wiscy is 1-7 ATS last 8 vs Iowa

4. Penn State- Joe Pa is back and will have a tough go in 2010. They face both Iowa and Ohio State plus grab Alabama as an out of conference game. PSU lost its QB and has just 13 returning starters. Five of those starters are on defensive so needless to say, they have some holes to fill. Can’t Miss Trend.. Penn State was 1-7 ATS at home last year

5.Michigan State- I really like HC Mark Dantonio. He is just one of those coaches who gets the most out of all his teams. This year, he has one of his better ones. With 7 starters on both sides of the ball and junior QB Kirk Cousins looking to improve on his 19/9 last year, this team is poised to make some noise. As long as this team plays a little better defense, they should make a bowl. Can’t Miss Trend… Spartans are 7-1 ATS last 8 vs Illinois

6. Michigan – Oh RichRod that seat must be on fire by now. What a mistake this is looking like for the Wolverines. After a 5-2 start the Wolverines dropped 5 in a row. RichRod is now in his 3^rd year here and should have most of ‘his players’ contributing. Look for an improved  year with 15 returning starters and QB Nate Forcier growing in the role. The defense must improve more if this team is to return to a premier bowl.  Can’t Miss Trend…  Michigan is 3-1 ATS last 4 vs Iowa at home

7. Northwestern – The bottom of the Big 10 can go any which way in my opinion. Northwestern loses its QB and other key cogs on both sides of the ball. Can’t Miss Trend … Northwestern 8-2 ATS last 10 vs Illinois

8.  Purdue – Another team lacking depth to really compete with the big dogs of the league.  HC Danny Hope will need a lot of it to improve in year 2. Their front 7 should be good with 6 players back, but losing the entire secondary will be tough. Can’t Miss Trend.. Purdue is 9-3 ATS last 12 vs Minnesota

9. Illinois – HC Ron Zook has to be on the hot seat. I mean, this guy can recruit players but he hasn’t gotten any real results. With 8 starters back on defense, they will be respectable. But the offense leaves a lot to be desired. Can’t Miss Trend ….  Illini are 6-3 ATS last 9 vs Ohio State

10.Indiana Hoosiers – With just 4 starters back on defense, this can be an ugly year for HC Bill Lynch. The offense promises to show some flashes of brilliance as it returns 8 starters. This school can really use a bowl to ease some pain for Coach Lynch.  Can’t Miss Trend… OVER has cashed in 8 of the last 9 vs Iowa

11. Minnesota – Oh this team is that bad and they have a tough schedule. Southern Cal, Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State all come calling. HC Tim Brewster can at least say his group is battle tested.  With just 2 returning starters on defense, it will be a long year in Minny. Can’t Miss Trend…  Minnesota is 7-3 ATS last 10 vs Northwestern

2. Miami Hurricanes – Here is a trendy pick for many people this year. Canes look to bring back the swagger that the 80’s and early 90s ‘U’ teams had. With 8 starters back on defense and 6 on defense, this team is ready to take off. QB Jacory Harris has emerged as a solid arm. Before we get all warm and fuzzy inside, this Miami schedule is a rough one. A tough 3 game road trip vs Ohio State September 11th , Pittsburgh the 23rd and then vs ACC rival Clemson October 2nd will show us where this team belongs. Can’t Miss Trend Miami is 0-3 ATS its last 3 vs Clemson

3. North Carolina Tar Heels – Can Butch Davis get this team over the hump. The defense is stacked. But the question is if QB TJ Yates can do anything with the ball. This team does have the most returning starters (19) of any ACC team. The defense alone makes this team a threat. Can’t Miss Trend… NC is 1-9 last 10 vs Florida State

4. Georgia Tech – The defending ACC Champs. Big losses for Tech as running threats Jonathan Dwyer and Demaryius Thomas are gone. QB Josh Nesbitt is back and should get some help with RB Anthony Allen stepping into HC Paul Johnson’s offensive machine. New DC Al Groh is bringing a new 3-4 scheme to Atlanta so look for a step back from the Yellow Jackets. Can’t Miss Trend G-Tech is 3-1 ATS last 4 vs Virginia Tech

5. Duke Blue Devils – Duke did win 3 ACC games last year after going 7-73 the previous 10 years. But with the teams listed above them here, they still have a long way to go. They avoided last place last season and with a new regime in Virginia, should end up 5th once again. Can’t Miss Trend… UNDER has gone 11-4 in Duke’s last 15 road game

6. Virginia Cavaliers – New HC Mike London takes the reigns after being at Richmond. With new schemes on both sides of the ball, new coaches everywhere and with a league low 12 returning starters, it is clearly a rebuilding year in Charlottesville. Can’t Miss Trend … Virginia is 11-1 ATS last 12 vs North Carolina

2. Clemson Tigers – HC Dabo Sweeney loses the explosive CJ Spiller, but Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper should provide some relief in the rushing attack. QB situation leaves a little to be desired. But the defense is a solid bunch with a playmaker in safety DeAndrea McDaniel who picked off 8 passes last year. Can’t Miss Trend…. Clemson is 2-8 ATS last 10 vs Maryland

3. Boston College – This team finished 8-5 last year and could be better. HC Frank Spaziani has a talented bunch on both sides of the ball. This team is defined by its defense. Look for them to jump out fast with games vs Weber State and Kent State before taking on Va Tech September 25th. Can’t Miss Trend.. Boston College is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 road games

4. Maryland Terps – The Terps off a terrible 2-10 season. HC Ralph Friedgen is on a bit of a hot seat. The offensive line gets 3 starters back and 9 of its top 10 receivers. They are healthy in the backfield. Terps also have a favorable schedule. They only get Miami out of the Coastal Division and miss Va Tech, North Carolina and Georgia Tech. With a year under DC Don Brown’s plays under their belt, the defensive should also improve. Can’t Miss Trend … 8 of last 9 vs Clemson have gone UNDER the total

5. NC State – Last year was not the way HC Tom O’Brien wanted things to go. But with a talented bunch of WRs around QB Russell Wilson, things should improve. The defense can’t be any worse then last years bunch that allowed 31ppg. Can’t Miss Trend… NC State has gone OVER in 5 straight at home

6. Wake Forest- With the loss of 4 year starting QB Riley Skinner, Wake is clearly rebuilding this season. HC Jim Grobe will rely more on the run in his Spread attack breaking in a new QB. The defense which gave up 164ypg on the ground will be as bad as the DL is young. Can’t Miss Trend… Wake is 1-5 ATS last 6 home games vs Duke

How this works is I compile information from a wide variety of sources to determine who the best players are going to be in each conference, difference-makers if you will. The reason for using conferences is this is how teams make it to BCS games or bowl tie-ins. How well does this work? From the handicapping point of view it works on futures wagers, to build foundation as to how to perceive teams throughout the year. That is not to say this 100 percent accurate, because nothing is.

The basic point is talent wins games week after week. Granted, motivation and other factors play into betting on college football from week to week, nevertheless, ask any successful coach what is the lifeblood of the program and he’ll tell you it is players that have ability. Even if teams lack focus for a half versus inferior opponent, once they start playing up to capabilities, the more talented team can still win and cover spreads.

Undoubtedly, other aspects come into play like scheduling, when you play teams or injuries. Nonetheless, this is a great tool to blend with others for the upcoming season.

As an added bonus, Impact Football Solutions went thru every preseason publication and website that had preseason predictions and we list in parenthesis how each team is expected to finish based on ranking them all.

ACC – Atlantic

1)    Boston College (2) -21 points

2)    Florida State (1) -16.5 points

3)    Clemson (3) -15 points

4)    Maryland (6) – 9 points

5)    N.C. State (4) -6 points

6)    Wake Forest (5) -1 point

ACC-Coastal

1)    North Carolina (3) -28 points

2)    Miami-Fl. (2)-16.5 points

3)    Virginia Tech (1)-11.5 points

4)    Georgia Tech (4)-9 points

5)    Virginia (6)- 6.5 points

6)    Duke (5) -4 points

ACC Notes- Finding Boston College and North Carolina at the top of any ACC poll would be a shock to most football observers. The Eagles are strong in usual areas like offensive and defensive lines and if Mark Herzlich can make it all the way back from cancer; the Boston College bond on defense will be that much stronger. The Tar Heels on paper are the most complete defensive team in the country. The only weakness is if Butch Davis’ defenders become too satisfied with pressing clipping and tweets about how good they are or if the offense does nothing to help them and keeps them in negative field position continually. Florida State is expected to dominate their division, with the other teams having many holes to be plugged. The U at Miami is liked by many experts, however the offensive line is in flux after allowing 35 sacks and Game 2-5 (at Ohio State, at Pittsburgh, at Clemson and Florida State) might have the Hurricanes mentally and physically worn for a time. Virginia Tech should be very good offensively, but defense is rebuilding. New Virginia head coach Mike London has to fix offense that was 118^th in the FBS last season.

Big East

1)    Pittsburgh (1)-30 points

2)    Cincinnati (4)-28.5 points

3)    West Virginia (2) -27 points

4)    Rutgers (5)-15.5 points

5)    Connecticut (3)-15 points

6)    South Florida (6)-11 points

7)    Syracuse (7)-8 points

8)    Louisville (8)-4.5 points

Big East Notes – After a nice run of being the surprise conference in college football, the Big East could take a step backward. Pittsburgh might have been the best team in the league last year, but couldn’t hold on to 31-10 lead at home to Cincinnati to give the Bearcats the Big East crown. The Panthers did suffer fairly heavy personnel losses on both sides of the ball, but still have the greatest amount of star power. Rival West Virginia would seem to pose the greatest challenge and has 16 starters back; however Coach Bill (smiley) Stewart is not a positive. Cincy has many parts back from title team, but can head man Butch Jones duplicate his predecessor’s success again? One club to watch is Connecticut. The defense wasn’t up to typical Huskies standards, however they should be improved. UConn finally has a legit offense and the five losses that were suffered last season were by 15 total points. South Florida was forced to go different direction after Jim Leavitt was fired. Skip Holtz takes over and will want to improve 7-13 (8-12 ATS) close to the season the past three years.

Mountain West

1)    TCU (1)-38 points

2)    Utah (2)-25.5 points

3)    BYU (3)-16 points

4)    Air Force (4) -14.5 points

5)    Wyoming (5)-13 points

6)    San Diego State (6)-11 points

7)    New Mexico (9)-10 points

8)    Colorado State (7)-7.5 points

9)    UNLV (8) -6 points

Mountain West Notes –The upper part of this conference should hold little mystery. TCU is hands down the best squad in Mountain West, maybe being a little better offensively and dropping a notch on defense from last year. Utah will have the Horned Frogs at home in early November, yet at this time it does not appear they have the horses on defense to run with TCU. The BYU talent is definitely down this year, taking them out of true contender range. Air Force and Wyoming both have a chance to go bowling again and each could be good underdogs if they can stay healthy. San Diego State has a capacious number of starters back, nevertheless, until they prove they can at least compete with the MWC big boys, plus win and cover as favorites, honestly, difficult to take seriously. The Aztecs conceded 30 or more points last season and were 0-6 and 1-5 ATS. Why does everyone think UNLV is the sleeping giant of the conference? In a town that has been built on losers, the football Rebels fit right in.

C-USA -East

1)  Central Florida (1) -22.5 points

2) Southern Miss (2) – 22 points

3) Marshall (3) -14.5 points

4) UAB (5) – 10.5 points

5) East Carolina (4)-7.5 points

6) Memphis (6) -6 points

C-USA –West

1)    Houston (1) -20.5 points

2)    Rice (5) -13 points

3)    UTEP (4) -11 points

4)    Tulsa (3) – 10 points

5)    SMU (2) -6.5 points

6)    Tulane (6) -1 point

C-USA Notes – This league is presumed to have one constant and drastic change at the same time. Houston is the overwhelming favorite to win another West division title, but it might not as simple as it looks. Rice, Tulsa and SMU (1-11 to 8-5 was biggest turnaround in FBS) are all believed to be vastly improved, providing more competition than meets the eye. Each has the feel of being able to cover the backdoor or have front door covers on unsuspecting opponents. The East is a different matter. East Carolina lost 30 letterman (most of the 120 FBS teams) and will need brick and mortar to rebuild. That swings open the door for Central Florida and Southern Mississippi to charge thru. The Knights bring back 15 starters from 2009 and are slight favorites over the Golden Eagles. Brett Favre’s alma mater might actually have more naturally gifted players than UCF; nonetheless the offense has to sort out matters before being the anointed team. UAB coach Neil Callaway must really like his handpicked coaching staff. With 11-25 (16-17-1 ATS) record after three years, every assistant for the Blazers starts their fourth year. Hmm.

Big 12 –North

1)    Missouri (2)-19.5 points

2)    Nebraska (1) -18 points

3)    Colorado (4) -10.5 points

4)    Kansas State (6) – 6.5 points

5)    Kansas (3) -5 points

6)    Iowa State (5) – 2.5 points

Big 12 –South

1)    Oklahoma (1) -27 points

2)    Texas (2) -24.5 points

3)    Texas A&M (3) -17.5 points

4)    Texas Tech (4) -8.5 points

5)    Oklahoma State (5) -6.5 points

6)    Baylor (6) -2 points

Big 12 Notes – Oklahoma and Nebraska are expected to meet for the Big 12 title, having the most talent up and down their rosters. Neither is a sure thing as both Missouri (five straight winning seasons, longest since 1978-82) and Texas have playmakers that could alter the outcome of the league. Texas A&M, at least offensively can overtake Texas Tech as the third best team in the South. With nine starters back for coach Mike Sherman, he’s counting on big improvement from the Big 12’s worst defense a year ago. Despite large sums of money spent by T. Boone Pickens to upgrade the facilities to make Oklahoma State a better destination for a high school recruit, coach Mike Gundy lost a ton of starters (only eight return, 4-O and 4-D) and the replacements are not nearly as good, halting any progress made. The rest of the Big 12 looks like others competing for scraps after the big dogs have eaten.

Big Ten

1)    Ohio State (1) -37.5 points

2)    Wisconsin (3) -27 points

3)    Iowa (2) -22 points

4)    Penn State (4) -15 points

5)    Michigan State (5) -14.5 points

6)    Purdue (7) -10 points

7)    Michigan (6) -6.5 points

8)    Northwestern (8) -5.5 points

9)    Illinois (10) – 3.5 points

10)Indiana (9) -2.5 points

11)Minnesota (11) -2 points

Big Ten Notes – The league should be called “The Big One and the little 10”, as Ohio State is absolutely superior to the rest of the conference. That doesn’t mean the rest of the teams won’t have an interesting season. Wisconsin could well return to 10-2 regular season with what coach Bret Bielema has on hand. Iowa will again be a factor with rugged defense and potentially improved offense. Penn State in recent years has matched the play of their quarterback and Kevin Newsome is expected first year starter. The rest of the conference looks like rush hour in downtown Chicago. A number of squads have possibilities to get ahead of the pack or they could be caught in traffic with the rest. Two coaches that need their teams to surpass expectations are Rich Rodriguez (Michigan permitted 30 or more points in six of eight Big Ten contests in 2009) and Ron Zook. If the preseason prognosticators are correct, both might add to the almost 10 percent national unemployment ranks. Minnesota is out to avoid last year’s conference trifecta in which they finished last in scoring, total offense and rushing offense.

SEC –East

1)    Florida (1) -21 points

2)    Georgia (2) -16 points

3)    South Carolina (3) -9 points

4)    Kentucky (5) -4.5 points

5)    Tennessee (4) -3 points

6)    Vanderbilt (6) -2.5 points

SEC –West

1)    Alabama (1) -32.5 points

2)    Arkansas (2) -13.5 points

3)    LSU (4) -13 points

4)    Auburn (3) -9.5 points

5)    Mississippi (5) -7.5 points

6)    Miss. State (6) – 7 points

SEC Notes- The biggest non-surprise since the end of last year’s regular season was Urban Meyer back officially as head coach. The Gator-monster he helped create even got the best of him, carrying the heavy burden of anticipation. Florida still has what it takes to at least win the SEC East, without all the hype. Over in Tuscaloosa, Nick Saban will have a strong offense, but has to replace nine starters on defense. The stop troops are there to continue another strong campaign, they just need seasoning. The rest of the West division is several notches below, with Arkansas having the most upside with QB Ryan Mallet leading high scoring offense. Georgia has the best chance to surpass Florida, but is still in need of defensive answers after permitting 34 or more points 10 times the last two years. The first seven years under coach Mark Richt, this occurred five times.   Joker Phillips has big shoes to fill as coach, as Kentucky has won seven or more games four straight years, the last time that happened was 1909-1912.

Pac-10

1)    Oregon (2) -23 points

2)    USC (1) -22.5 points

3)    Oregon State (3) -22 points

4)    Washington (4) -18.5 points

5)    Arizona (5) -16.5 points

6)    California (7)-14.5 points

7)    Stanford (6) -13 points

8)    UCLA (8) -9 points

9)    Arizona State (9)-7.5 points

10)Washington State (10)–zero points

Pac-10 Notes – In essence, this is the beginning of a new era for the Pac-10. New members will be joining the league in the not too distant future and they have aggressive new approach from commissioner Larry Scott. Things have also changed in football, with USC no longer guaranteed the top spot in the conference with the departure of Pete Carroll and the probation the university is faced with. There is still ample talent left on the Trojans campus, but not the automatic reload of the past several seasons. Oregon will try and return to Rose Bowl as Pac-10 champions and would have been the odds on favorite except for former Ducks QB Jeremiah Masoli could not avoid problems with the law again. Will this be the year Oregon State finally breaks thru and becomes conference champion? With 60 returning lettermen, the Beavers are as experienced as any team in the country and only USC has more conference wins (27) than OSU (25) since the league went to nine-game format. The middle of the pack could go any which way, with Washington and coach Steve Sarkisian creating the most buzz. It’s time for UCLA to show real progress with Rick Neuheisel not living up to promises thus far.

MAC -East

1)    Temple (1) -32.5 points

2)    Kent State (3) -22 points

3)    Ohio U. (2) -15.5 points

4)    Buffalo (5) -10.5 points

5)    Miami-O (7) -9 points

6)    Akron (6) -8 points

7)    Bowling Green (4) – 1.5 points

MAC –West

1)    Cent. Michigan (4) -14 points

2)    NIU (1) – 9.5 points

3)    Toledo (3) -9 points

4)    W. Michigan (2) -7.5 points

5)    Ball State (5)-7.5 points

6)    E. Michigan (6) -1.5 points

MAC Notes – With football history dating back to 1894, Temple’s years of failure got them expelled from the Big East in 2004 after just 14 years in the conference. This ushered in the (Al) Golden era in 2005 and the former Virginia defensive coordinator has turned the program completely around, as Temple enjoyed first winning season last year since 1990. Now the Owls are believed to be the best team in the MAC and are predicted to end Central Michigan’s mini-dynasty. However, only one of coach Golden’s 19 wins has come against a winning team. The Chippewas actually do have productive players returning to Mt. Pleasant, especially on defense, yet without Dan LeFevour and third new coach in five years, CMU should tumble. This sets the table for Northern Illinois or Western Michigan to break thru, with the Huskies thought to be the top choice. Kent State might be the best defensive squad in the MAC and could go bowling for the first time since 1972 if offense clicks.

WAC

1)    Boise State (1) -45 points

2)    Nevada (2) -22.5 points

3)    Fresno State (3) -21 points

4)    Louisiana Tech (4) -13 points

5)    Utah State (7) -9 points

6)    Idaho (5) -9 points

7)    N. Mexico State (8) – 7.5 points

8)    Hawaii (6)-6.5 points

9)    San Jose St. (9) -6 points

WAC Notes – In horse racing terms it is known as walk-over. This is where the favorite is believed to be so dogmatic; the field literally has no chance. This is the case in the WAC, where the purest thoroughbred is the Broncos of Boise State. Chris Peterson is 49-4 and 30-19 ATS as the head coach, having a non-BCS team being given serious consideration for national championship. The battle for second place or historical upset, centers on Nevada and Fresno State. Both should be very competent offensively, trying to find ways to shore defensive holes. Louisiana Tech, Idaho and Utah State are attempting to reach the next level in the conference and have to fix weaknesses to leap forward. New Mexico State won three games last year, by a total of nine points, not exactly a team on the come.

Sun Belt

1)    Mid. Tenn. State (1) -26.5 points

2)    Troy (2) -20.5 points

3)    North Texas (7) -20 points

4)    Arkansas State (4) -17 points

5)    Florida Atlantic (3) -16 points

6)    Louisiana- Laf. (5) -14.5 points

7)    UL-Monroe (6)-14 points

8)    Florida Int. (8) -13 points

9)    West. Kentucky (9) – 4.5 points

Sun Belt Notes – The Sun Belt could see a changing of the guard with Middle Tennessee State breaking Troy’s stranglehold on the conference in 2010. The Blue Raiders have 14 starters in the fold from last year New Orleans Bowl winner and most importantly, QB Dwight Dasher. Troy probably still has the best roster of athletes in the SBC; nevertheless, they have a great deal of inexperience. The biggest mystery team in the league is North Texas, who is markedly more talented than when coach Todd Dodge took over three years ago, however can this team do an about face after five years of 10-49? Other than Western Kentucky (20 consecutive losses), execution and lucky breaks will fill out the rest of the league standings.

Independents

1)   Notre Dame -12 points

2)   Navy -10 points

3)   Army -2 points

Independent Notes – This area is more challenging and more subjective. What is done is compare roster of starters to closest leagues where they reside. Notre Dame matches up in the Big Ten and would be strictly run of the mill in that league. I placed Navy and Army in the Big East for point of comparison, though they maybe more than any other two teams in the country are more about maxing ability and effort.

Be sure to see all of Doug Upstone’s Top Plays at SportsCapping.com

Florida State Seminoles 9-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 7-4 O/U

Summary: Florida St.’s return to glory seems to be getting closer. The Seminoles finished with nine wins last season for the first time since 2004 and that included a very solid bowl win over Wisconsin by 29 points. They home to carry that over into this season and it had better work as they will be playing a brutal schedule this season. The offense brings back eight starters including junior quarterback Christian Ponder who was very average last season. The offensive line is back as well as a stout running game so that should help him settle in. The defense regained its toughness last season but only five starters are back this season. In his last season before retirement, defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will get the most out of his unit.

Schedule: The schedule will determine how far along Florida St. really is in its comeback attempt. Every opponent it faces in the ACC went to a bowl game last season and three of its four non-conference opponents also made it to the postseason. The Seminoles have to play three Atlantic road games and none are easy. They also have to travel to BYU and Florida so the entire slate is extremely tough.

Bottom Line: It looks as though every other team in the Atlantic Division is taking a small step back so the Seminoles get the top spot by default. I think they deserve it anyway as talent-wise, no one is in the same class. It all depends on how focused they are because that has been an issue in the past, as have the off-the-field incidents that have taken place. With this schedule, matching the nine wins from 2008 will be tough.

Betting Forecast: Florida St. was above .500 against the number for the first time since 2003. The Seminoles are a very public team so that winning likely won’t continue.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 8-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U

Summary: Head coach Jim Grobe has done an amazing job in turning around the Wake Forest football program. He inherited a 2-9 team in 2001 and put together a winning season in his first year at the helm and over the last three years, the Deacons have won a combined 28 games. This season will be a challenging one as the defense does not look as strong as it has been in the past as only four starters are back on the unit. Offensively, Wake Forest finished 101st in the nation last season but nine starters are back including four-year starting quarterback Riley Skinner so it should improve immensely. The Deacons are getting no respect once again as they received no votes in the AP Preseason poll which is amazing to me. They have a shot at another Atlantic Division title.

Schedule: The schedule sets up very well for Wake Forest. Five of the first six games are at home including two of the first three ACC contests all three of which are winnable. The first one is at Boston College who looks to be rebuilding. The Deacons have to play at Clemson and at Georgia Tech but they catch both Miami and Florida St. at home. They close the season at Duke.

Bottom Line: The defense, which finished 16th in the nation overall and in scoring last season, is the only thing holding Wake Forest back the top raking in the division. The Deacons are young and not deep but the team speed could be the best ever. It should not be a problem for Wake Forest to make it to a fourth straight bowl game but it has higher aspirations and that is making it to the ACC Championship.

Betting Forecast: Wake Forest is a disappointing 8-19-1 ATS as a home favorite under Grobe. I expect that to reverse this season as the Deacons fly under the radar again.

Clemson Tigers 7-6 SU, 4-7 ATS, 3-8 O/U

Summary: Despite playing in four straight bowl games, Clemson has to be one of the biggest disappointments of the decade. There has been so much talent here but the Tigers have underachieved numerous times. Head coach Tommy Bowden was fired midway through last season after the administration had finally seen enough. Dabo Sweeney took over and led Clemson to three straight wins to end the season and earn a bowl bid where it lost to Nebraska. The offense is led by running back C.J. Spiller, one of the top backs in the ACC but there is a big issue at quarterback where Kyle Parker and Willy Korn are battling it out for the starting job. The defense will be stout again and will be asked to carry the team from the start.

Schedule: Clemson has a favorable schedule but that has been the case for years and it has somehow managed to mess it up. The Tigers have seven home games including a tough non-conference game against TCU. Why they would schedule Coastal Carolina for homecoming is beyond me. The ACC schedule is manageable as it gets Boston College, Wake Forest and Florida St. all at home.

Bottom Line: The defense, which finished 18th overall and 13th in scoring in the country last season, is in fact good enough to carry Clemson to a winning record and a bowl game. If the Tigers want to have any realistic shot at the division title and an upper-tier bowl game, the offense needs to pick it up. Finding a quarterback is the first challenge and if they can do that, the Tigers could be the team to beat.

Betting Forecast: Despite going 44-16 at home since 2000, Clemson is just 17-24 ATS as a home chalk. Tread lightly when laying points with this overvalued team.

NC State Wolfpack 6-7 SU, 9-2-1 ATS, 6-6 O/U

Summary: It looked like it was going to be three straight losing seasons for NC State but it responded after a 2-6 start by winning its final four games and making its first bowl appearance since 2005. The Wolfpack did lose to Rutgers in the bowl game to finish 6-7 overall but it was still a successful season and something to build on. Head coach Tom O’Brien is in his third season so now is the time to find out what he is accomplishing. NC State finished 88th in total offense and 83rd in total defense last year so making it to a bowl game was a big accomplishment with those rankings. They get 14 starters back including quarterback Russell Wilson who finished with 17 touchdowns and just one interception and he is one of the best young quarterbacks in the country. But can he repeat that performance?

Schedule: The Wolfpack have the advantage of eight home games this season but includes difficult games against South Carolina, Pittsburgh, Clemson and North Carolina. The game against the Gamecocks opens the season on Thursday and that is the first of four straight at Carter-Finley Stadium. The four road games are at Wake Forest, Boston College, Florida St. and Virginia Tech, all of which can be lost.

Bottom Line: Wilson will do his best to lead the offense but the sophomore jinx could come into play as there is no way he can match his 2008 season. The running game will be adequate after losing Andre Brown and the offensive line returns three massive bodies. The defense came on strong at the end of last season, allowing 20.2 ppg over the final five but a major push forward will need to happen for the Wolfpack to contend.

Betting Forecast: The Wolfpack went 8-0 ATS in the ACC last season after a combined 10-20 ATS in the previous four years. Look for a regression this year.

Boston College Eagles 9-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 O/U

Summary: The head coach for Boston College has been a revolving door the past three years at Tom O’Brien left for NC State and Jeff Jagodzinski was fired after two years after interviewing for an NFL position. Frank Spaziani, who is in his 13th season with the program, takes over so the transition should be smooth. Now, the Eagles just need to find a starting quarterback to run the offense, an offense that will be switching schemes once again. Boston College had a stellar defense last season, finishing 5th in the country including 7th against the run. The problem this year is that the interior line needs to be replaced. In total seven starters are back including three from the secondary which was last year’s weak spot. It should be the strength this year.

Schedule: Boston College starts the season with two relatively easy home games against Northeastern and Kent St. Then the real fun begins as the Eagles play four straight ACC games, none of which are easy. They are at Clemson then at home against Wake Forest and Florida St. and then on the road at Virginia Tech. The final two non-conference games are at Notre Dame and at home against Central Michigan.

Bottom Line: The bowl run of 10 straight trips could continue this year if the Eagles can survive that difficult early ACC stretch. If they put up a goose egg in those four games, it will be tough to come back. This is far from the most talented team at the Heights so a bowl game could be a big accomplishment and the reason it will happen is because of Spaziani. The Eagles are lucky he stayed at O’Brien left.

Betting Forecast: After going on a 3-14 ATS run as a home chalk, the Wildcats rebounded with a 4-1 ATS mark last season. Look for that to continue again in 2009.

Maryland Terrapins 8-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U

Summary: When Ralph Friedgen burst upon the College Park campus, he led the Terrapins to a 31-8 record in his first three seasons. He has just 33 victories in the five years since then including just two winning seasons. This year will be tough to achieve back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2002-2003 because this team is extremely young. The Fridge did a great job last season in getting his team to overachieve so that should keep his job safe if this year results in another losing campaign. Maryland returns just nine starters overall and there are only 11 seniors that dot the 44-man two-deep chart. That is great news for the future but for 2009, it could mean a pretty long season.

Schedule: The season starts at California where the Bears will be out for revenge following last seasons loss at Maryland. The Terrapins then return home for four straight games with Rutgers and Clemson being the toughest of the bunch. The rest of the ACC schedule is not overly tough with the exception of games at Wake Forest and at Florida St. The Terrapins miss both Miami and Georgia Tech.

Bottom Line: Five road games definitely help the cause for Maryland but it still may not be enough. The last time the Terrapins returned so few starters came in 2004 and 2005 when they returned nine and ten respectively and finished both seasons 5-6. A rebuilding season is almost inevitable but an experienced offensive backfield could make for a couple upset bids.

Betting Forecast: Maryland is 0-4 ATS as a road favorite the last three seasons and while it will be rare, avoid that bet at all costs and take a long look at the home dog.