Cotton Bowl (Fri., Jan., 6): The all-running team against the all-passing one…and a pair of dynamite scoring offenses. Kansas State (10-2 SU, 9-2 ATS) is not flashy, with a ground game carrying the offense (33.1 points, 193.7 yards rushing), as the poor passing game is 109th in the nation behind 6-foot-5 junior QB Collin Klein (12 TDs, 5 INTs, 1,745 yards), a better runner. He leads the team with 1,099 yards rushing and 26 TDs, along with 5-7 sophomore RB John Hubert (933 yards, 5.0 ypc). They have overachieved for Coach Bill Snyder. K-State is on a 15-6 run over the total. The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.

Arkansas (10-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) has a wide open passing game for coach Bobby Petrino behind junior Tyler Wilson (22 TDs, 6 INTs, 3,422 yards), averaging 37.4 points and 307.8 yards passing (13th in the nation). He has experienced targets to throw to in senior WRs Joe Adams (630 yards) and 6-3 WR Jarius Wright (1,029 yards). Arkansas is on a 14-4 run over the total and 16-2 SU/12-5 ATS its last 17 games. The under is 8-0 in Razorbacks last 8 bowl games.

BCS Championship Game (Mon., Jan., 9): Here they go again! The SEC has won the last 5 national titles and will win again. Defense is the story (and revenge), with Bama No. 1 in points allowed (8.8) and LSU No. 2 (10.5). Alabama (11-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) has junior RB Trent Richardson (1,583 yds, 6.0 ypc), along with sophomore RB Eddie Lacy (631, 7.5 ypc) on another powerhouse team for Nick Saban. Sophomore QBs A.J. McCarron (16 TDs, 5 INTs) runs this balanced attack averaging 36 points, 213.6 yards passing, 219.8 yards rushing. The defense is sensational, yet they botched their first showdown at home with No. 1 LSU, a stunning 9-6 OT defeat. 3 missed field goals, 2 crushing turnovers and countless missed opportunities and poor execution cost them. They held LSU to 234 total yards and forced 2 turnovers. Bama is 21-10-1 under the total in their last 31 conference games.

No. 1 LSU (13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS) has a ton of talent, especially on defense. Senior QB Jarrett Lee (14 TDs, 3 INTs) has been very good, though the ground game leads the way behind soph RBs Spencer Ware (700 yds, 4.0 ypc) and Mike Ford (755, 6.1 ypc), a dynamic one-two backfield punch, averaging 38 ppg, 209 yards rushing and 167 passing. 6-4 junior WR Rueben Randle (904 yards) can stretch defenses averaging 18.1 yards per catch (though he caught only 2 passes in the first meeting against Bama). The Tigers are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

As 2010 draws to a close, we find ourselves smack in the middle of the bowls. You shouldn’t be bowled-out, either, as they build to the crescendo that is the LSU/Alabama showdown for the national title.

Belk Bowl (Tues., Dec. 27): A pair of teams that started slow and finished strong. Louisville rebounded from a 2-4 start to finish 7-5 under second-year coach Charlie Strong. The Louisville (7-5 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) offense (21.8 ppg) puts up few points, and averages just 206 yards passing and 122 rushing, but the defense has been great. Strong ran the defenses at Florida and has improved the Cardinals, allowing 19.4 ppg last season and 19.2 ppg this year. The offense started with junior QB Wayne Stein (5 TDs, 1 INTs), but after a shoulder injury turned to freshman QB Teddy Bridgewater (12 TDs, 9 INTs). The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.

NC State needed to win both of its final games to become bowl eligible and did so, topping Clemson (37-13) and Maryland (56-41). NC State (7-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) has a good offense behind junior QB Mike Glennon (28 TDs, 11 INTs, 2,790 yards) that is averaging 28 points and 238 yards passing. So you like passing offenses or tough defenses this time of the year?

Military Bowl (Wed., Dec. 28): A fun bowl featuring a great running team against a great passing and running team. Air Force (7-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) is fast on offense averaging 34.4 points and 320 yards rushing (2nd in the nation) behind senior QB Tim Jefferson (12 TDs, 6 INTs), senior QB Conner Dietz and tailback Asher Clark (1,096 yds, 7.3 ypc). This defense (27.3 ppg allowed) has struggled, especially in the secondary. Passing teams have picked apart the secondary, like when Notre Dame bombed them, 59-33, as did SDSU (41-27 loss). The Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. They are on a 9-3 run over the total.

Toledo has a transition taking place as football coach Tim Beckman announced that he had accepted the head coaching position at Illinois. OC Matt Campbell will run the show. Toledo (8-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) has a great offense because of two returning QBs, junior Austin Dantin (15 TDs, 3 INTs), sophomore QB Terrance Owens (15 TDs, 3 INTs) plus senior WR Eric Page (1,123 yards). They are averaging 42.3 points, 272 yards passing, 221 yards rushing. Northern Illinois had a wild 63-60 victory over Toledo in regulation! They had 589 yards (264 rushing), but allowed 532 (267 rushing). Then came a carbon copy, with Toledo beating Western Michigan 66-63 with 804 yards (419 rushing) while allowing 635 yards (548 passing). So, yes, they are ALL OFFENSE and no defense, allowing 30.9 ppg.

Champs Sports Bowl (Thurs., Dec. 29): Florida State (8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) and 2nd-year Coach Jimbo Fisher have a solid all around team despite 4 losses by a total of 18 points. They have a mostly passing offense, averaging 31.7 points, 118 yards rushing and 257.7 yards passing behind senior QB E.J. Manuel (16 TDs, 8 INTs) with young receivers 6-6 junior Rodney Smith (527 yds) and freshman WR Rashad Greene (497 yds). The defense (15.2 ppg allowed, 4th in the nation) is talented under defensive coordinator Mark Stoop, led by DB Xavier Rhodes and defensive end Brandon Jenkins (13.5 sacks in 2010). The Over is 5-2 in the Seminoles last 7 bowl games.

Notre Dame (8-4 SU/6-6 ATS) loves to throw under coach Brian Kelly, adding an uptempo attack (30.5 ppg, 258 yds passing, 156 rushing) to South Bend. They lost their first two games but are 8-2 since. Sophomore QB Tommy Rees (19 TDs, 11 INTs) is 12-3 as a starter. The ground game has junior RB Cierre Wood (1,043 yards, 5.2 ypc). Senior Jonas Gray (791 yds) hurt his knee and is done for the year. Gray’s injury was a huge loss for the Irish, who went 4-0 after he was inserted into the starting lineup. The Under is 18-8-1 in Fighting Irish last 26 road games.

Pinstripe Bowl (Fri., Dec. 30): An outdoor b-b-b-b-bowl game from frigid Yankee Stadium finds a pair of overachieving teams that weren’t expected to make a bowl. And it’s a clash of styles, as Rutgers has the dynamite passing game, Iowa State has the power ground attack. Iowa State (6-5 SU/7-4 ATS) plays hard for Coach Paul Rhoads and has two signature wins, a stunning 37-31 double overtime victory at home over No. 2 Oklahoma State changing the national title picture and a 41-7 rout of then No. 20 Texas Tech. The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Rutgers (8-4 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) has a great group of wide receivers in juniors Mark Harrison (274 yards) and Mohamed Sanu (1,144 yards), plus 6-6 sophomore WR Brandon Coleman (466 yards) who averages 29 yards per reception! New offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti (from Pitt) runs a pro-style attack better fits sophomore QB Chas Dodd (9 TDs, 7 INTs, 1,398 yards) and freshman QB Gary Nova (11 TDs, 9 INTs, 1,533 yards) averaging 26.3 points, 245 yards passing, 91.5 yards rushing. The Scarlet Knights are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Rose Bowl (Mon., Jan. 2): Two of the most potent offenses in the nation. Mighty Wisconsin (11-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) has a stacked offense with sophomore RB James White (683 yards, 5.1 ypc), junior Montee Ball (1,759 yards, 6.4 ypc) and speedy 6-3 senior WR Nick Toon (822 yds) and sophomore WR Jared Abbrederis (814 yards), great weapons for new QB Russell Wilson (31 TDs, 3 INTs, 2,879 yards, 72.5%). The Badgers are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall and on an 8-2 run over the total.

Pac 12 champ Oregon (11-2 SU/7-5 ATS) is tearing it up offensively under Chip Kelly, spreading the field, running the no-huddle and burning up defenses. They average 46.2 points with 219.5 yards passing and 295.7 yards rushing per contest behind junior QB Darron Thomas (30 TDs, 6 INTs, 2,493 yards) and junior RB LaMichael James (1,646 yards, 7.4 ypc). Oregon is on a 22-9 run over the total overall, 30-12-2 over the total in their last 44 games as a favorite.

Stanford: While the Stanford Cardinals are an offensive minded team primarily due to  their quarterback Andrew Luck, it is their rushing game {ranked 22^nd in the country} is the key to this offense. In Stanford’s first 8 games, helmsman Andrew Luck was brilliant throwing 24 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. However, in his last 4 match-ups Luck has not been himself at all tossing 12 touchdowns with an alarming 5 interceptions. At best he has looked average. Defensively, in their first 7 outings this unit only allowed 80 points, but in their last 5 encounters they gave up 146 points. Even though their scoring defense is ranked 23^rd, the Cardinals’ passing defense ranked 78^th should be their demise to the Cowboys pass happy offense.

Oklahoma State: The Oklahoma State Cowboys are coming in here on a major roll on both sides of the ball outscoring their opponent 141 to 53 in the last 3 outings. They are second in the country in scoring {49} and passing offense {386}, and 3^rd in total offense accumulating 557 yards per game. Quarterback Brandon Weeden is fourth in the nation in total offense producing 352 yards per game. The Cowboys have 3 defensive players in the top 25 with interceptions and the Cowboys are second in turnover margin.

The Bottom Line: The Oklahoma State Cowboys definitely have too much firepower for Cardinals’ passing defense ranked 78^th. State’s defensive will look for a few picks from Stanford’s Andrew Luck, who in this writer’s opinion is way overrated!

Selection: Oklahoma State -3.5

BOWL GAME HISTORIES FOR BOTH TEAMS

Average score: Stanford  16.5 - Opponents  17.9

Overall: Bowl game record: (13-8)

Average score: Oklahoma St  27.3 - Opponents  22.1

As 2011 draws to a close, we find ourselves smack in the middle of the bowls. You shouldn’t be bowled-out, either, as the bowls slowly build to the crescendo that is the Alabama/LSU showdown.

Poinsettia Bowl (Wed., Dec. 21): A pair of teams with great passing offenses – but only one plays defense. Louisiana Tech (8-4 SU, 7-3 ATS) is on a tear, a 7-game win streak that got them a surprise WAC title. They have a great passing offense for coach Sonny Dykes, averaging 30.6 points and 247 yards passing, 150 rushing, behind freshman QB Nick Isham (8 TDs, 7 INTs) and junior QB Colby Cameron (11 TDs, 2 INTs, 1,403 yards). They also lost just 35-34 to powerhouse Houston and 19-17 to Southern Miss. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games.

TCU, even with two losses, came close to earning a berth to its third-straight BCS bowl. But the Horned Frogs are headed to the Poinsettia Bowl to face Louisiana Tech, the WAC champion. TCU (10-2 SU/6-5 ATS) has sophomore QB Casey Paschall (24 TDs, 6 INTs) and a strong ground game behind junior RB Matthew Tucker (684 yds) and sophomore Waymon James (824 yards, 7.7 ypc), averaging 41.7 points, 210 yards rushing and 233.8 passing. They are 8-3 over the total this season. The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.

Las Vegas Bowl (Thurs., Dec. 22): Arizona State (6-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) has a lot of talent on a strong offense that averages 33.9 points and 310 yards passing behind 6-8 junior QB Brock Osweiler (24 TDs, 12 INTs) and 6-foot-4 senior WR Gerell Robinson (1,156 yds).

However, they were huge disappointments, losing their final 4 games that cost Coach Dennis Erickson his job. The defense is a problem, allowing 26.3 ppg, and they were terrible in close games, losing 29-28 to UCLA, 17-14 to Illinois and 31-27 to rival Arizona. Throw in a 47-38 no-show home loss to Cal in the finale and you can see why they coach was axed. The Sun Devils are on an 18-6 run over the total.

Boise State (10-1 SU/4-7 ATS) has a super-talented team led by senior QB Kellen Moore (41 TDs, 7 INTs). The Broncos average 43 points, 183 yards rushing and 297 passing. Moore has a strong offensive line behind senior offensive tackle Nate Potte. However, the Broncos lost 36-35 at home to TCU, allowing a TD pass with a minute left. The usually great defense got smoked for 506 yards (473 passing). Another run to a BCS bowl game, gone. It was Boise State’s first home loss in nearly six years. The Broncos are 41-17-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Hawaii Bowl (Sat., Dec. 24): The running team against the all-passing one! Nevada (7-5) is tough to defend with that Pistol/Option attack for Coach Chris Ault, averaging 32.9 points, 271 yards passing and 251 yards rushing (8th in the nation) behind redshirt freshman QBs Tyler Lantrip (10 TDs, 6 INTs) and Cody Fajardo (6 TDs, 5 INTs), both excellent runners. Junior RB Mike Ball (704 yds, 5.2 ypc) and senior RB Mark Lampford (728 yds, 5.6 ypc) have carried the load in the backfield. The defense allows 25.3 ppg. They lost to Oregon (69-20), Texas Tech (35-34) and Boise (30-10). The Wolf Pack is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games.

Southern Miss (11-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) is off a terrific 49-28 upset of Houston in the Conference USA title game. Coach Larry Fedora runs a wide-open spread offense he helped run at Oklahoma State. The Golden Eagles average 37.8 points, 263 yards passing and 207.8 rushing behind senior QB Austin Davis (28 TDs, 11 INTs, 3,331 yards) plus speedy senior WR Ryan Balentime (742 yds) and freshman RB Jamaal Woodyard (683 yards, 6.4 ypc). The defense is allowing 21.1 ppg and hasn’t faced many strong offenses. They also held on for a 30-24 victory against Virginia.

Independence Bowl (Mon., Dec. 26): Missouri (7-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) is playing well on offense behind sophomore QB James Franklin (20 TDs, 10 INTs), averaging 32 points, 225 yards rushing and 233 yard passing, though they recently lost dynamic soph RB Henry Joseph (knee, out for the season). He ran for 1,168 yards, a sizzling 8.1 yards per carry! QB Franklin is their second leading rusher with 839 yards. This defense was No. 6 in the country last season allowing 16.1 ppg, but worse this year, especially in the secondary, allowing 23.5 ppg. Baylor had a 42-39 victory over Missouri with 697 yards (291 rushing). The Under is 9-3 in the Tigers last 12 non-conference games.

North Carolina (7-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) returned 10 starters on offense, 5 on defense for Everett Withers, the new head coach (former defensive coordinator). They started fast (5-1) but finished losing 4 of their last 6 games. Sophomore QB Bryn Renner (23 TDs, 12 INTs, 2,769 yards) runs the offense that has good balance, 28.3 points, 147.4 yards rushing and 249.2 passing. He has talented sidekicks in freshman RB Giovani Bernard (1,222 yds, 5.4 ypc, 13 TDs) and senior WR Dwight Jones (1,119 yds). The Tar Heels are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as a dog; the under is 9-4 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.

Team History In Bowl Match-Ups:

Temple’s Record: 1 And 2

December 29, 2009 EagleBank Bowl-UCLA 30, Temple 21

December 15, 1979 Garden State Bowl-Temple 28, California 17

January 1, 1935 Sugar Bowl-Tulane 20, Temple 14

Wyoming’s Record: 6 And 6

December19, 2009 New Mexico Bowl-Wyoming 35, Fresno St. 28, 2OT

December 3, 2004 Las Vegas Bowl-Wyoming 24, UCLA 21

December 9, 1993 Copper Bowl-Kansas State 52, Wyoming 17

December 31, 1990 Copper Bowl-California 17, Wyoming 15

December 30, 1988 Holiday Bowl-Oklahoma St. 62, Wyoming 14

December 30, 1987 Holiday Bowl-Iowa 20, Wyoming 19

December 25, 1976 Fiesta Bowl-Oklahoma 41, Wyoming 7

January 1, 1968 Sugar Bowl-Louisiana 20, Wyoming 13

December 24, 1966 Sun Bowl-Wyoming 28, Florida St. 20

December 31, 1958 Sun Bowl-Wyoming 14, Hardin-Simmons 6

January 2, 1956 Sun Bowl-Wyoming 21, Texas Tech 14

January 1, 1951 Gator Bowl-Wyoming 20, Washington & Lee 7

Game Analysis:

The Temple Owls are flying into this Bowl game on a 3 game winning streak outscoring their opponents 100 to 51. On offense Temple’s forte is their 7tth nationally ranked running game accumulating 256 yards per contest averaging 5.26 yards per carry and 35 touchdowns on the ground. What make this rushing attack very difficult to defend are their triple running backs spearheaded by Bernard Pierce who is sixth in the country in rushing. Defensively, they are 1^st in the Mid-American Conference in scoring defense containing the opposition to 13.83 points per outing. They average 26.61 yards per return, which is 4^th in the nation.

The Cowboys of Wyoming come in here with below average statistics almost across the board. There are only 3 categories out of 18 Wyoming stands out in and there are: Turnover Margin and they are ranked 4^th in the country, Punt returns which they are 13^th, Rushing Offense as they ranked 32^nd. Ironically their worse category is their Rushing Defense which is nationally ranked 115^th allowing 230 yards a game.

The Bottom Line:

The Temple Owls rushed for a combine 829 yards on 132 carries averaging 7.1 yards per tote along with ten touchdowns in their last three games of the regular season, while their held their opposition to 549 rushing yards and only four total during this period of time.  Versus Nebraska, Utah State & TCU, Wyoming’s defense surrendered 12 {4 each} touchdowns and pathetically 1,026 rushing yards in those particular match-ups combine. Common sense tells you, Temple’s trio of running backs should have a field day and make Wyoming’s defense extremely tired by the end of the third quarter.

Selection: Temple -6.5

Injuries are to be expected in football, being such a violent, physical game. That’s why depth is so important, not just as at quarterback spot but skill positions and both lines. A year ago Northwestern went to a bowl, but the game that clinched a bowl, against Iowa, dynamic QB Dan Persa got injured. It was their last win, too, as freshman Even Watkins was forced in the next game and wasn’t sharp in a 48-27 loss to Illinois as a +7 dog. The Wildcats lost their final three games, including the bowl.

The Texas Longhorns are back in a bowl after taking last year off. They’ve used three quarterbacks this season. Starter Garrett Gabbert got injured in September, but backup QBs freshman David Ash and sophomore Case McCoy played better and improved the offense. Big name programs have an edge over small schools with the ability to stockpile depth, particularly behind center.
Oregon has had a great run the last few years. Because of injuries in 2010, Oregon had to use backup QB Nate Cost in the middle of the season, and he played well in a win over UCLA. Three years ago, Oregon had to use four QBs, including main starters Jeremiah Masoli and Justin Roper, but still managed to have one of the top offenses in the nation. In 2008 their four QBs combined for 19 TDs, 11 picks.

Contrast that with programs like Syracuse, UConn, Purdue, San Diego State, Miami of Ohio, Buffalo, who will be lucky enough to find one competent QB. Even a program like South Carolina had to dismiss starting QB Stephen Garcia in mid-season, starting over in many ways with freshman QB Conner Shaw. Shaw has been pretty good, but the offense, combined with the loss of star RB Marcus Lattimore, hasn’t been as potent as last season. Remember in 2007 when Georgia seemingly lost all its running backs? That paved the way for freshman Knowshon Moreno to explode out of nowhere.

In the NFL, the Eagles have had a bad run of injuries. QB Mike Vick has been in and out of the lineup with various ailments, forcing Vince Young in, a significant dropoff in production. Now team has had more injuries than the first place Houston Texans and they have to navigate the second half of the season with Matt Leinart replacing Matt Schaub.

Is the value of QB depth more pronounced than in Indianapolis? Without Peyton Manning, the Colts have fallen off a cliff, from Super Bowl contender to top pick in the draft! A few years ago the Tennessee Titans lost starting QB Vince Young in Week 1, but they had a capable veteran backup available in Kerry Collins during their 13-4 SU/12-5 ATS start. That same season the Patriots went 11-5 when they lost Tom Brady, as backup QB Matt Cassell played well.
Good college coaches and pro general managers will build their teams with the understanding that they will lose some players during the season. This is very different from a GM who takes the attitude that we should be a good team IF we don’t have any key injuries.

Four years ago LSU needed to beat Tennessee in the SEC title game, but was without its starting QB as senior Matt Flynn had a shoulder injury. Many schools would have been set back, but the Tigers trotted out strong-armed sophomore QB Ryan Perrilloux, who was outstanding in the 21-14 win. Having a capable backup signal caller turned out to be huge as they went on to top Ohio State for the national title.

Speaking of champions, look at the Pittsburgh Steelers the last few years. Eight years ago the Steelers had a starting quarterback in Tommy Maddox, but when Ben Roethlisberger fell to them in the first round (11th pick) of the draft they were delighted. They thought he would go higher. Understand what their thinking was: A player they had rated high dropped in their laps so they took him. They placed and emphasis on drafting talent before need.

The Steelers were stockpiling depth and talent at the most important position. They didn’t anticipate Maddox getting hurt in Week 2, but were prepared with Roethlisberger stepping in, winning 15 in a row as a rookie and a pair of Super Bowl titles since. The main reason for depth is one of the most important components of football: Injuries. Football is a violent game and injuries are commonplace.

Stockpiling depth, while managing a salary cap, is essential when injuries strike. It’s not just at quarterback. The Ravens played great defensively last week when star MLB Ray Lewis sat out with an injury. The Patriots have had a ton of injuries this year on defense, but are playing better now than when they were healthy back in September with a string of backups stepping in.

Part of it is luck, as it’s tough to lose such a pivotal figure as a star quarterback. On the other hand, part of it is smart coaching and management if they prepare properly with depth. It’s not the job of a pro football general manager to be praying every Sunday for players not to get injured. Rather, the smart teams evaluate and upgrade depth, as injuries are to be expected.

This is one of the basics when it comes to winning football. And speaking of basics, if you can’t stop the run, the opponent doesn’t need to pass. This is something that was evident when Nebraska and Oklahoma dominated the Big 8 and Big 12 during the 1970s and 80s. Those teams had powerful running games under Barry Switzer and Tom Osborne, and many times they’d face teams that simply couldn’t stop the run.

While we don’t find this kind of extreme disparity in the NFL, examining run defense is still an important angle when attempting to identify strengths, weaknesses and mismatches. After five weeks of one recent NFL season, which were the worst two teams defensively against the run? Cincinnati ranked 32nd allowing 165 rushing yards a game while Carolina (which may surprise you) ranked 31st allowing 159 yards per game. While the Panthers poor defense may be a shock, it’s no surprise that those teams have been giving up a ton of points. What also stood out was their spread records: The Bengals started 0-5 against the number and Carolina was 0-3 ATS on the road.

This season the biggest NFL surprise might be the Cincy defense, which has been outstanding. The Bengals can collapse the pocket with a good young D-line, led by DE Jonathan Fanene, who consistently beats double teams, and tackle Geno Atkins. Speaking of defense, the under is 11-3 in the Bengals last 14 games as a home favorite. Stopping the run has been a huge part of their surprising start.
Simply put, teams that can’t stop the run are most likely to give up a lot of points. And the only way they can then be effective at winning (SU and ATS) is to have a terrific offense that can mask that deficiency. This happened with the 2003 Chiefs, who allowed more yards per carry than any other team in the NFL (over 5 yards per pop), yet they were able to make the playoffs with an explosive offense. At least until the Colts ripped them in the playoffs, winning as a road dog.

Speaking of the Chiefs, they began the next season ranked 25th defensively against the run, allowing 135 yards and 4.5 yards per carry each game. That translated into a 1-4 SU/ATS start. The Saints had a lot of problems on defense for years, and that season New Orleans ranked 27th at stopping the run (143 yards allowed pg) during their 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS start. When they improved the run defense, they got much better, including a Super Bowl title in the 2009 campaign.

By now you get the point: It’s tougher to cover the number when you struggle against the run. Before winning the title last season, the Packers were another great example a few years ago. After an opening day win over Carolina, Green Bay suffered key defensive injuries and went 0-4 SU/ATS, allowing 32 points per game. The run defense is giving up a whopping 149 yards and 4.9 ypc.
Here’s another way to slice it: There were only four NFL teams that season allowing over 5 yards per rushing attempt, the Titans, Packers, Rams and Bengals. Their combined spread record: 6-16 ATS! You have to keep track of teams on a daily basis to determine if injuries or defensive adjustments are taking place. These things can influence a team’s effectiveness against the run. The 2003 Patriots were average against the run early, until Ted

Washington (leg problems) and other defensive players got healthy and New England improved dramatically against the run the second half of last season. But if you’ve found a team that can’t stop the run consistently, make sure this is not a weakness the opponent can exploit if you plan on backing them. Otherwise, you can find it profitable to bet against teams that can’t stop the run.

With October upon us, there already have been many NFL surprises. The good surprises have been the winning records of the Redskins, Lions, 49ers and Bills. The bad surprises have been even more plentiful, with the performances of the Eagles, Vikings, Cardinals and Colts. This leaves situations each Sunday where teams HAVE to play better and win.

I call a few years ago in the NFL when the Bills had a must-win game after an 0-2 start. It was also a good spot, as the team was home off a bye week and going up against the defending champs. Buffalo played hard, but mistakes and a fired-up will to win still weren’t enough to keep them from going 0-3 in a 31-17 loss. Tampa Bay, too, was in a similar boat that same week. Lacking offense, the Bucs had the misfortune to face a terrific Denver defense. Again, the home crowd wasn’t enough to keep them winless. They didn’t even get the cover, instead squeezing out a push.

That same season the Chiefs came home to face Carolina in a battle of 0-2 teams. Kansas City was a big home favorite, despite having a defense that appears just as bad as last season. As a 6-point home favorite, they couldn’t win or cover in a 24-21 loss to the Panthers. That, too, was a “must win” game for KC.
But just because a team “has to win” doesn’t mean they have the personnel to win or cover. Other times, the opponent is able to exploit a weakness by the “must win” team, like the Broncos did last week at Tennessee, throwing the football 100 times, in seems, on the way to an upset victory.

“Needing to win” didn’t help the NY Mets a few years ago when they flopped in late September, blowing the pennant, along with the Red Sox last month. Nor did it help the Dallas Cowboys three years ago in Week 17, when they needed to win at Philly – and lost 44-6! It’s smarter to look for on-field matchups or other emotional factors, such as revenge, than “must win” spots. Overall, successful handicappers don’t get swayed by talk about “must win” situations.

Last season in college football, Utah bombed overmatched San Jose in the first half, leading 35-3. From 38 first half points there were only 21 total second half points. Coaches that have a game in hand at the half are likely to run the football, if they are good at it, as not to show anything on offense that opponents watching game film can prepare for. Also, visiting teams can be inclined to pack it in, as if to say, “We’ll get ‘m next week. Let’s just get out of this one without any injuries.”

I recall a game a few years ago when Penn State and Ohio State hooked up. In that matchup, you had two strong defensive teams and two banged up offenses. Those things, alone, make bettors want to take a serious look at the entire game going under the total.

What happened was that Ohio State jumped out to a 21-7 halftime lead – certainly not the kind of defensive game oddsmakers were expecting, as the total on the contest was 34. However, this was a perfect spot for the second half to be very low scoring. For one thing, the home team -–Ohio State – had a two touchdown lead. Many football coaches prefer to go conservative to protect a lead like that, so they will be looking to control the ball and the clock in the second half. Ohio State was the perfect type of team to do that, too, with a strong defense and a run-oriented offense. There was no need for the Buckeyes to open up the offense in the second half with a 21-7 lead. Rather, the game plan was simple – no mistakes, go to the running game, play the field position battle and use one of its strengths – defense – to keep the lead and ice the win.

Despite the high scoring first half, the game still went under the low total in Ohio State’s 21-10 win. This strategy is exactly what the Buckeyes did. Understand that the second half total was 17½ and it sailed under with only 3 second half points. The old rule is if the home team is up by two touchdowns or more, take a serious look at the under for the second half. It helps if the home team has a strong defense and a decent running game. Ohio State filled the bill perfectly on all the criteria.

This was evident, too, that same season in the UCLA/Stanford game. The Bruins had a powerful running game, like the do this season, and led 14-0 over Stanford. UCLA turned the ball over to the ground game in the second half in its 21-0 win. Again, the game went way under the total, but the second half was an even easier under. In that game, the Bruins ended up with 246 rushing yards, with two backs gaining over 86 yards with Maurice Drew’s 105 and Manuel White’s 87.

This happens in the NFL, too, especially with conservative coaches who have reliable running games and above-average defenses. Teams that currently fit this paradigm, if at home with a big first half lead, would be the Ravens, Dolphins, Vikings, Bengals, Steelers, 49ers and Titans. Yes, we all look for games and point spreads to beat, but don’t ignore halftime wagering, either, because there are all kinds of methods to build your betting bankroll.

One thing that has stood out is that the offenses are much improved across the NFL. Part of the reason is rule changes over the last seven years (enforcing the 5-yard rule on defensive backs, the Tom Brady to protect the QBs) have favored the offenses. Another part if that teams that had lousy quarterback play last season (Bills, Cardinals, Panthers, Titans) have improved remarkably. The Redskins have a much better offensive line which is helping the offense, while the Lions have QB Matthew Stafford healthy. All in all, it’s become a passing league and scoreboard operators have been busy. Having a potent offense can help underdogs.

In the colleges, the Auburn defense struggled against Utah State in the opener, Ohio State has struggled because of all their changes/suspensions, while Notre Dame started 0-2 SU/ATS as a favorite each time because of turnovers.

September is a fascinating time for handicappers to follow college football partly because of surprises. Two years ago Oklahoma was anticipated by many to return to the national title game, but couldn’t even get a win in Week 1, losing as a 23-point favorite to BYU, 14-13. Wasn’t it just a few years ago the Sooners were upset by TCU as a 24-point favorite? Yes, and that took place in September, too.

The 2009 upset was because of an injury to QB Sam Bradford and six years ago it was because of a lack of quarterback experience as well as an underrated TCU defense. That’s the thing with early season football: Injuries can mar the best laid championship plans, while team weaknesses can get exposed and taken advantage of by opposing coaches.

Notre Dame has already lost their starting QB in junior Dayne Crist, who threw 15 TDs, 7 INTs last year. He got injured in the 23-20 loss to South Florida as a 10-point favorite. The Irish are better equipped than most teams in that regard as sophomore QB Tommy Rees got time last year and started 5-1 as their starting signal caller.

But most teams aren’t as fortunate. Florida State has problems with QB E.J. Manuel and Arizona has lost senior All-Pac-10 wide receiver Juron Criner to an appendectomy. Last year at this time a home dog in college that won was UCLA, pounding Houston. You had to feel bad for the Cougars losing two quarterbacks in that game, the most devastating was Case Keenum. Just like that, the Cougars went from No. 23 in the nation to a team that will have to forge a new identity. Instead of a Heisman contender, Houston had to turn to QBs true freshmen Terrance Broadway and David Piland.

It’s also important not to read too much into major surprises, either, providing there are not significant injuries to key players. Sometimes a team pulls a huge upset not so much because it is so much more improved, but because the opponent is overvalued. Duke just won at Boston College as a +7 dog, but the Eagles have been terrible offensively with QB problems going back to last season. When you see a team that can score as a significant favorite, be careful. This was the case with TCU back in 2005, which dominated Oklahoma, then went out the next week and lost to SMU, 21-10 as a 13½ point favorite. Were the SMU Mustangs that much improved? No, as the next week SMU lost 66-8 at Texas A&M.

Early season football also features significant shifts and changes, not only because of injuries but because of ineffective play. The Chiefs have been terrible in the NFL because of a rash of injuries to key players. In college, Michigan and Pitt have new looks offensively with coaches bringing in completely different styles from last season. Michigan Coach Brady Hoke has brought in a pro-style attack while Pitt Coach Todd Graham has introduced his no-huddle, spread attack to the formerly conservative Panthers. Florida has a new look, well, junking the Urban Meyer Triple Option for Charlie Weis’ pro-style offense.

Coaches select new starters based on scrimmages before the season, but there is a huge difference between practice and real-game situations. Subtle things reveal themselves in games, such as leadership, decision-making, performance and even pressure. Some players, quarterbacks in particular, have weaknesses in those areas that don’t fully reveal themselves until game-day competition. As a result, that can throw off preseason prognostications of fans, media and the team’s coaching staff.

A great example in 2008 was Tennessee. Expectations were high for the Volunteers with a lot of returning talent. But QB Jonathan Crompton and a new offensive coordinator never were able to get things rolling and it was a disastrous season. There were new changes for last season under Coach Derek Dooley and the Vols are playing well with their passing game, though they just suffered some key wide receiver injuries.

A big early upset two years ago was USC losing at Washington in a 16-13 stunner that sent shockwaves through the Top 10. Washington had just ended a 15-game losing streak that month and had a 56-0 loss to the Trojans the previous season. The difference? It was not the same Washington team from 2008. QB Jake Locker missed most of that season, plus the Huskies had a new playbook and attitude under Coach Steve Sarkasian – the former USC offensive coordinator.

Maybe this will cheer up Notre Dame and Ohio State fans: In 2003, LSU debuted at No. 12 in the first BCS standings and rallied to win the national title. Understand that preseason expectations are not set in stone, and don’t overvalue teams simply based on one impressive game. Handicappers know that big dogs often bark in September, but that doesn’t mean they will continue to bark the rest of the season.