In the 2011 regular season, St. Louis finished six games behind Texas. From 1905 through the 2011 MLB League Championship round, when MLB teams trailed their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by six regular-season games, they have posted a 4-7 (.364) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents.

The St. Louis Cardinals in general have a 2-2 best-of-7 MLB playoff series record against opponents whom they trailed by six regular-season games losing to the 1928 MLB Finals to the New York Yankees and winning the 1964 MLB Finals over the New York Yankees they then lost the 1968 MLB Finals to the Detroit Tigers, Then winning, the just finished 2011 National League Championship Series over the Milwaukee Brewers.

For Texas this is the fourth best-of-7 playoff series, and the 27th for St. Louis. In best-of-7 playoff series, Texas has a 2-1 series record, a 0-1 Finals series record, and a 1-2 Game 1 record, while St. Louis has a 15-11 series record, a 10-7 Finals series record, and a 9-17 Game 1 record. This Series is the first best-of-7 match up between the Texas Rangers and the St. Louis Cardinals.

So now that we have a nice historical point of view, lets get to the on field criteria. This is the second straight appearance for Texas. Last season they ran into the San Francisco Giants and were unable to get past what was a solid Giants pitching staff that was led By Tim Lincecum and a Giants bullpen that had the lowest earned run average in the Majors. This year they will not face nearly the same type of pitching as after they face Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter its gets tough for the Cardinals to navigate through the potent Texas lineup. This years Rangers staff is without star lefty Cliff Lee. However, with the emergence of CJ Wilson as the ace of the staff and some gutsy performances by C. Lewis and D. Holland the Rangers were able to surprise folks and make it back here.

In the hitting department both teams have explosive offenses capable of big innings. In fact The 39 total runs by the Texas Rangers in the 2011 ALCS are the most ever in a best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series requiring six games, surpassing the previous high of 38 runs also set by the Texas Rangers, in the 2010 ALCS. Those 39 total runs by Texas are the third-most in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series. The 30 total runs in Milwaukee by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2011 NLCS sets a new record for most road runs scored in a best-of-7 MLB Semifinals series, beating the previous record of 29 total road runs set by the Florida Marlins in the 2003 National League Championship Series. Texas is led by Josh Hamilton and N. Cruz, and has a lineup that can hurt you from top to bottom with no easy outs. The Cardinals have Albert Pujols who at one point was hitting an incredible .646 in the NLCS. The Cardinals lineup, while not as talented statistically as Texas can also cause problems with their timely hitting and unselfish play, when it comes to Tony Larussa and his small ball mentality.

He may have an edge particularly at home over Texas manager Washington is this department. Larussa will have to use his wits here in this series to try and offset what looks to be an overall talent edge by Texas. There’s no surprise here that even with home field the Vegas oddmakers have made the Cardinals the underdog. In closing this should be a very entertaining series. While most series are controlled by Pitching, this one seems to be more of a whose at the plate last type of series.

Look for Texas to shed the grief of last years World series loss and emerge 2011 World Series Champions. I hope you enjoyed this preview. Enjoy the World Series and best of luck on all your Selections this season.

Rob Vinciletti is one of the nations leading analysysts year in and year out using his cutting edge Power systems. Rob enjoyed his third straight winning season in combined College and Pro football in 2010, finishing 24 games over .500. In NFL he is 25 games over .500 the past 2+ seasons. You can listen to Rob and get a solid free selection, weekly on his sports talk radio segment on Monday nights at 7:05 eastern. Listen online at 88.9 wsia.fm. Best of luck and Enjoy the Series. RV

The Yanks have won five straight games to take a 2.5-game lead over Boston in the AL East, including their thrilling 11-10 win over Baltimore in the series opener on Monday.

New York smacked four home runs and got two long balls from recently called-up DH Jesus Montero and they will likely need to score their fair share of runs again tonight with right-handed starter Phil Hughes (4-5, 6.75 ERA) posting a uninspiring 1-1 record over his last three starts with a high 7.31 ERA during the stretch. Hughes has been pounded for six earned runs in each of his L/2 starts.

Luckily, they’ll be facing Baltimore right-hander Tommy Hunter (3-2, 5.26 ERA) and he hasn’t been much better in going, 1-0 with a 6.98 ERA over his last trio of starts.

Hunter battled a stomach virus the last time out and could be ripe for the taking if he isn’t back to 100 percent, which I suspect will be the case tonight sportscapping baseball bettors.

With New York being huge home favorites in this one, I say avoid playing the Yanks at a whopping -250 and go for the Over play in this matchup between two struggling starters.

Yes, I know the O/U is a bit high at 10.5 runs, but the Over is 7-1 in New York’s L/8 home games as a favorite and 7-0 in their last seven games as a favorite of more than -201. The Over is 20-6 in Phil Hughes’ L/26 home starts and 5-0 in Tommy Hunter’s L/5 starts overall.

Keep it simple and play the Over in this matchup diamond bettors!

Pitcher Home/Away Performance: The home/road breakdowns on pitchers are especially fascinating, offering not only insight into what makes certain pitchers tick, but even where oddsmakers come up with some of their numbers, both sides and totals. That was the only way to handicap someone like Curt Schilling when he was healthy.

From 2004-07, Big Schill went 26-6 at Fenway park but 24-17 on the road. His overall stats are similar, but it’s clear the offense scores more runs for him at home where he pitches better. The point is, if you have a chance to back Schilling at a reasonable price at home, he’s worth a look. But often a name-pitcher like that is a big favorite, in which case you’d find better value going against him on the road than at home.

Another one was former Tampa Bay lefty Scott Kazmir. In three straight seasons Kazmir was much stronger at home with a 2.97 ERA, but a 4.41 ERA on the road. His home runs allowed during that stretch: 27 on the road, 12 at home. Sometimes there are reasons for this, such as the guy throws in a tough pitcher’s park at home and is not comfortable. Other times it’s less obvious, such as pressure a guy puts on himself in front of the home fans. Regardless, you can’t ignore when stark numbers come up like this. Putting the odds in your favor is what turning a profit in sports wagering is all about.

When 50-50 Turns Into a Big Dog: Sometimes after doing all the research and compiling data, I find that a game seems to be rated evenly. For instance, the pitchers are comparable, the visiting team is able to score consistently on the road, both teams have been playing well over the last week. Yet, in what should be roughly a pick ‘em game, the home team is a considerable favorite. Naturally, this would be the time to back the dog, as there is value. In short, if a game is rated evenly and either team has a 50-50 chance, in my judgment, of winning, then I’m getting extra value with +145 or +170 road dog. You won’t hit all of these, of course, but even hitting 40% turns a profit when you’re getting +150 or +160 value.

East Coast, West Coast Trip: Long road trips are common over the course of 162 games. Visiting teams that are favored despite flying a long way can offer good go-against spots. During one recent May, the Red Sox had a 7-game home stand and won all 7 games, then they flew all the way to the West Coast and got swept at Oakland. That started a 1-5 skid, all on the road.

This is nothing new. In 2007 the Red Sox played the Yankees in a 3-game weekend series, with the final game being the Sunday night ESPN telecast. After the game, which ended around midnight on the East Coast, the Sox had to hop on a plane and play Oakland the next night. Despite being a favorite in 3 of the 4 games in Oakland, the Red Sox lost three scoring 7 runs in 4 games. The only game they won was 1-0.

The travel-factor can give a significant edge to the home dog. Remember four years ago when the Yankees opened this season on the West Coast? They lost 4 of their first 5 games. Keep tabs on how many time zones a team may be crossing and if they are playing in a back-to-back spot.

If A Pitcher is Hot: This appears obvious, though it is a sometimes overlooked area. A pitcher may have a poor overall ERA, but I look at his last three or four starts to see if he’s as consistently bad as his overall numbers suggest. Many times, particularly with young pitchers, you find hurlers who are getting significantly better.

One year Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano started 1-4, giving up 21 runs in 27 innings in his first 5 starts. Zambrano may be a name pitcher, but he wasn’t throwing like an ace. It was his contract year, which might have been on his mind.

Another factor could be an injury that a pitcher is not letting on about. That appeared to be the case last season with Boston righty Josh Beckett, who was battling back spasms and had a poor start. Look at recent stats to see how a pitcher is throwing and don’t be afraid to draw your own conclusions.

After an 11-19 start, they made some adjustments, benching aging Bernie Williams, moving speedy Tony Womack higher in the order and bringing up the rookie Robinson Cano to play second base. The offense and defense improved culminating in a 15-2 run. After a struggling start the 2008 season, the LA Angels got hot because of adjustments to the offense. Reggie Willits came up from Triple-A and took over the leadoff spot, Chone Figgins got healthy and newcomer Gary Matthews Jr and Vlad Guerrero continued to drive them in. Teamed with a strong pitching staff, the Angels took over first place by ripping off a 17-5 run. Last season, the Arizona Diamondbacks started 5-3 before going in the tank. A good handicapper tracks individual players as well as team batting averages daily. Other times, teams will bench guys who haven’t been productive and give bench players or Triple A kids a shot. You have to be on top of your game at all times to beat the bookies.

Home/Away Play: This requires breaking down teams and players by how they perform both home and away. I’ve mentioned this many times, but it’s worth repeating: One team can perform very well on a regular basis at home and appear to be a completely different team on the road. If I see the Oakland A’s as a home dog, for example, I look carefully at the game – is it worth a play? If I see the A’s as a road dog, I’m much less likely to play them because they have a recent history of playing very poorly away from home.

Many teams can fall into that home/road disparity. In 2009 the Angels and Phillies were excellent both home and away, but teams like the Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jays were very good at home but lousy on the road. I recall in 2008 the Angels started as a .500 road team, but sensational at home, starting 24-9. The same situation developed with the Indians, who started a sizzling 21-7 at Jacobs Field. Last season the Mets, Braves, Dodgers, Rangers and A’s have had extreme home/road disparities. Again, do your homework daily to keep up on these teams (and players), and you can find spots where the dog offers value, both home and away.

Runs Scored on the Road: Often I find that some teams simply can’t hit or score runs on the road. They are often road dogs, and one must be careful when preparing to back them. However, some teams have just as productive an offense on the road as they do at home. This is very significant. Some teams rely on their home park to help them score runs, so they can be a liability on the road. You can find out by simply examining their average runs scored home and away. If a team is just as good offensively on the road as at home, you can find good spots to back them as a road dog, providing they are a competitive road team. Oakland has been a good of late, scoring significantly more runs on the road than in their cavernous home park. Teams like the Astros, Reds, Rays, Red Sox and Rockies have a recent history of playing significantly better offensively at home, taking advantage of their hitter-friendly parks, so they can be worth a play as a home dog, or a go-against on the road.

Certainly Colorado and Philly pitchers have to be looked at differently. Most pitchers on those staffs give up hits and home runs because they play in hitter-friendly parks, which is why it’s important to break down home/road starts for their pitchers. In particular, a quality start in Coors Field is a pitcher who can go 6-7 innings without walking many batters. This is true in other homer-happy parks, too, such as Milwaukee, Fenway, Toronto and Cincinnati.

A few years ago I recall retread starters like Dave Burba and John Burkett not having pretty overall numbers, but they pitched better when you examined each start – and their team got more wins – than you might at first think. Some starters will have one or two really bad starts that inflate their ERA, but have a whole string of quality starts.

The Twins are interesting in that their pitchers lead the majors in fewest walks allowed. It’s part of their organizational philosophy, which is smart. A lot of their pitchers may allow a lot more hits than usual, but notice how few walks they allow. When examining the Twins’ pitchers, it’s important to look at base runners allowed, rather than hits allowed.

Boston starter Josh Beckett had an unusual start to his American League career in 2006, with some quality starts and some real bad ones. He was too erratic while trying to get accustomed to the new league. Being a name pitcher, he didn’t offer any value, either. But in 2007 he was under-the-radar a bit because of his somewhat disappointing 2006 season and all the fanfare surrounding teammates Curt Schilling (his walk season) and newcomer Daisuke Matzusaka. Beckett quietly had a brilliant season, loaded with quality starts, and finished as the only 20-game winner. He was 18-to-1 to lead the majors in wins that season.

Of course, Beckett is a name pitcher and it’s smarter from a betting perspective to look for quality starts by lesser known guys. Cleveland’s then 23-year old righty Fausto Carmona fit that bill in 2007 when the Indians threw him into the rotation. Starting on April 24th, the Indians went 8-1 in his nine starts, with 8 quality starts. He pitched 6 innings or more in every one of them and at least 7 innings in 7 of them.

Last season, the Padres have impressed with a slew of relatively unknown young arms, as have the Blue Jays and the Twins, getting a bounce back season from Francisco Liriano. I’m more interested in the more recent starts where a guy is throwing well, as opposed to earlier games in the season where he might have struggled.

Even the great pitchers have bad games where they get knocked around, and you can’t predict when those clunkers will happen. Which is why it’s more important to look at the mixture of overall quality starts to bad starts when deciding to wager on or against a starter. And there are plenty of quality starts by little known starting pitchers than you might think.

Mariners: You can make the argument that pitching is the key to a sustained second half run. If so, the Mariners could be a fun team to watch. Who wouldn’t want a rotation anchored by Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Jason Vargas and Eric Bedard? Pineda is just 22 years old and flew through their system with ace potential – and has been just as dominant at the big league level.

The offense, however, has been feeble, with little power. They are best playing National League-style ball, being aggressive on the base paths with Ichiro Suzuki. Getting Chone Figgins out of a funk would help the Mariners improve in steals. Would you deal one of their great arms for a big bat?

Tigers: Detroit was a disappointment much of the first half before making a June run, with a team ERA near the bottom of the league and an offense that scores runs but has not been able to manufacture any because of the slump of speedy centerfielder Austin Jackson. The 24-year old is only in his second year, so there are growing pains (he hit .293 with 27 steals last season).

However, there is plenty to like about this team, starting with: Austin Jackson! He could get hot in the second half, which happened a year ago when he hit .314 in July, his best month. Plus there is plenty of pop on offense with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta. The starting staff has a rare ace in Justin Verlander. They would like some consistency out of righties Max Scherzer and veteran Brad Penny, otherwise the Tigers might be shopping for an arm before the trade deadline in what looks like a wide-open AL Central.

Giants: Speaking of wide-open races, the NL West is. The Giants were the early season pick to run away with it, but the Rockies and surprising Diamondbacks are all in the mix, plus the San Francisco offense has been worse than last season. There are four reasons to believe the Giants won’t go away, though: Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner. San Francisco has an NL foursome to rival the Phillies which keeps away losing skids. While most teams will be shopping for pitching before the trade deadline, the Giants will be looking for bats and have arms to deal.

Red Sox: Boston spent much of the first month of the season trying to get out of fourth place in the AL East because of a horrible 2-10 start. However, they began to turn it around in May as the offense played up to its talent and the return of former staff ace Josh Beckett. Beckett is off consecutive lost seasons because of injuries, but has been healthy and sensational in 2011.

Teamed with young aces Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, this rotation is built for October. The offense has balance, with star power, on-base percentage and speed with Jacoby Ellsbury and newcomer Carl Crawford. The defense is outstanding, especially in the outfield, which also helps the pitching staff. They had an injury-prone June, however, and struggled on the road.

Rockies: Speaking of aces, when is Colorado going to get something out of the 27-year old arm of Ubaldo Jimenez? A year ago at this time he was the ultimate stopper, anchoring the rotation, but he’s lost command this summer. This is a fascinating starting staff with 23-year old Jhoulys Chacin and 30-year old Jorge De La Rosa and Jason Hammel.

De La Rosa is off Tommy John surgery while Hammel started off hot and cooled off. This offense should be much better with Todd Helton, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitski, the latter two who have been streaky.  They could be in the market for a bat or arm before the trade deadline. This could be a wild NL West race to the finish.

Rays: Everyone lamented all the talent (Matt Garza, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena) they lost over the winter, but Tampa Bay has hung in there with speed, defense and pitching. That’s why their road record has been so impressive. This rotation of David Price, Wade Davis, James Shields and potential young ace Jeremy Hellickson is as good as any in the AL. Would you like to face that in October? If they can get there, that is.

The players dislike putting forth that much effort in one day. Managers cringe at the thought of having to burn their bullpens. Umpires loathe having to sit out there for a double-dip, especially the guys that have to work the plate in one game and the field in another. The vendors and ballpark employees essentially pull a double-shift with little to nothing to show for it. And studies show that attendance in either game a doubleheader is less than the average for a regular home game, which is enough to drive management crazy.

So, again, I’m sure that 99.9 percent of people in baseball would probably agree that doubleheaders suck.

The Powers That Be in Major League Baseball have done everything they can to ensure the doubleheader’s extinction. Or at the very least ensure its permanent place on the endangered species list. Back in 1945 doubleheaders accounted for a whopping 48 percent of all MLB games played and from 1926 to 1967 at least 20 percent of the total games were played as part of doubleheaders. However, since 1986 doubleheaders have made up less than five percent of all games and currently they represent slightly less than two percent of all games.

But as a gambler, put me in that 0.1 percent that loves MLB doubleheaders. And if you are a savvy MLB bettor you should appreciate and anticipate them as much as I do.

Why should a gambler lust after a doubleheader? Well, how about the fact that by following a very rudimentary MLB betting system you can show a 10 percent return on your investment year-in and year-out just by betting doubleheaders?

Doubleheaders provide a perfect chase opportunity. If you are not familiar with chase betting it is a method of progressive wagering where you increase the size of your wager following a loss so that a single win during any of the “chase” would result in a profit. You can read more about it here.

For instance, with betting a doubleheader as part of a chase you would bet $100 on a team to win Game 1. If your team wins, the chase is over, and congrats on your $100. If your team loses then you come back and bet $200 on Game 2. If your team wins the second game you earn a profit on the day. If your team gets swept then, well, grab a bottle and start counting the days until the next double-dip.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only 26.2 percent of doubleheaders end in a sweep. That means that if you were to just blindly pick a team and work a chase on them you would win money in three of four doubleheaders. There aren’t many systems in any sport where you can use “close your eyes and pick a team” and win 75 percent of the time. But, according to our friends at Elias, that’s the case with MLB doubleheaders.

The problem is, that statistic is likely an “all-time” stat. And over the last half-decade we have seen a much, much greater incidence of doubleheader sweeps than the statistical norm.

Since 2006 there have been 125 doubleheaders. However, 60 of them have ended in a sweep. That 48 percent sweep rate is nearly double the historical trends. It also completely negates our very remedial “blind chase” theory.

So let’s refine our chase approach to doubleheaders. Let’s say that we are going to work a chase on the home team when betting a doubleheader. It stands to reason that, given the overall success rate of home teams in baseball that the likelihood of a team getting swept at home is pretty slim. They have several built in advantages – familiarity of the area, emotional boost from the home crowd, and the last ups in both games – so I think it is fair to expect the home team to take one of two in a doubleheader.

Not surprisingly, of the 60 doubleheader sweeps since 2006 only 26 of them have come from road teams. That means that the home team wins at least one game of a doubleheader in roughly four of every five occurrences (99 of 125).

Just about any system with a 79.2 percent success rate is going to yield a profit and betting on home teams in doubleheaders is no exception. However, I feel like we can refine this system even further to increase our overall profit margin.

Of those 26 road sweeps over the last six years there were eight situations where the road team was clearly dominant and where you likely wouldn’t have bet against them. That includes a series where the Yankees travelled to Baltimore, for example, or where the Angels (in 2007) travelled to Kansas City. There were eight clear road sweeps, but there were also three instances where the home underdog, surprisingly, swept the road favorite. (One of those occurrences was this year, when Washington swept Milwaukee as a big underdog back in April.)

So, you could increase your winning percentage even further by adding a filter: chase on home teams in doubleheaders EXCEPT when the home team is an underdog in both games. That filter would have eliminated the eight doubleheaders where the road team dominated and we would have lost, as well as the three instances where the home dogs managed a win. However, that is more than a fair trade off because the three wins, even at underdog prices, would have only been worth around $500 in profit because we would have called off the “chase” after the Game 1 win. But the eight losing series would have cost us $300 apiece, for a $2400 bankroll hitoverall.

By adding this filter we now have a way to bet doubleheaders that would yield an 84.2 success rate (96 of 114).

Now, every one of those series would have had a unique set of moneylines. But for the sake of argument, let’s assume that every winning series would have banked us $100 and every losing series would cost us $350. Again, we’re only considering the series that met our filter. And over the last six years our 96 doubleheader wins would have grossed $9,600 while the 18 losses would have cost $6,300. That leaves a net doubleheader profit of $3,300 during that span.

I know that a six-year profit of $3,300 for a $100 bettor doesn’t seem very sexy. But if we assume that we bet an average of, say, $300 per doubleheader for 114 doubleheaders then our profit represents a robust 9.6 percent rate of return. Those are pretty conservative estimates (if you consider the Game 1 wins there is no way you would have to bet $300 on each DH) but they are still impressive. I mean, try finding that ROI in the stock market these days.

Also, because these situations only presentthemselves around 25 times per season that would allow even a relatively modest gambler to play it for $1,000 per game. So if you have a few thousand dollars in your account and you don’t like the daily grind of MLB betting, but you still want an opportunity to pad your stack between the end of basketball and the start of football, then betting on doubleheaders is a surefire way to achieve your goals.

Using our estimates ($100 for a series win and $350 for a series loss) here are the returns for the last six years:

2011:13 qualifying doubleheaders and two road sweeps. That has net $400 in profit ($1100 in winnings and $700 in losses) so far this year.

2010:15 qualifying doubleheaders and two road sweeps. That would have net $600 in profit ($1300 in winnings minus $700 in losses).

2009:21 qualifying doubleheaders and three road sweeps. That would have net $750 in profit ($1800 in winnings minus $1050 in losses).

2008:22 qualifying doubleheaders and four road sweeps. That would have net $400 in profit ($1800 in winnings minus $1400 in losses).

2007:20 qualifying doubleheaders and three road sweeps. That would have net $650 in profit ($1700 in winnings minus $1050 in losses).

2006:23 qualifying doubleheaders and four road sweeps. That would have net $500 in profit ($1900 in winnings minus $1400 in losses).

As you can see, this chase method is an extremely consistent method of betting MLB doubleheaders.

There are eight doubleheaders left on the schedule for the 2011 season, subject to change, depending on any rainouts the rest of the way. The next scheduled doubleheader comes on July 16 with the Los Angeles Angels at Oakland. This game could be filtered out – the Angels could be favored in both games depending on the pitching matchups – but if it isn’t I know I’ll have my money on the A’s that day.

Speed isn’t simply stolen bases, although that’s one part of the equation. Speed is also the ability of a player to go from first to third, or turning a single into a double. And defense in the outfield. And speed is a huge asset, along with on base percentage, with respects to one of the rarest and most important facets of a successful team – a good leadoff hitter.

The Tampa Bay Rays had a terrific season last year, with the best record on the road. Many looked at their pitching, which was a factor, but less credit was given to their speed, tops in the AL in stolen bases. When a team with speed plays on the road, they don’t have to adjust their game to the size of the park. Small parks like Tampa, Fenway and Yankee Stadium may be easy to hit home runs in, but big parks like in Oakland and Washington are tough for hitters. However, if you have speed on the bases, none of that matters, as the bases are all the same distance from each other.
A few years ago I recall the NY Mets struggling badly as they got off to an embarrassing start despite a ton of money dished out for stars like Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. The Mets had Jose Reyes as a leadoff hitter. Despite a decent batting average, in his first 14 at bats to the year he had zero walks. The previous season, in 220 plate appearances for the Mets he had 5 walks! That’s ridiculous. I don’t care if this guy is faster than Vince Coleman and Willie McGee combined, his on base percentage was a joke and he didn’t belong anywhere near the top of the order. You need to have guys get on base at the top of the order, more so than speed. A lack of on base capability will choke your offense. By contrast, a good on base percentage player WITH speed is the best of all leadoff hitters, such as Ichiru.

The Red Sox have won two World Series the last six years with excellent speed/on base percentage leadoff hitters like Johnny Damon and Jacoby Ellsbury, and got even faster this season with the addition of Carl Crawford. A good leadoff batter is an extremely valuable part of the makeup of a team. Look at the Cubs, a team that has fizzled the last few years despite great pitching and powerful home run lineups. One season their leadoff batter was Corey Patterson, a guy with power, but lousy at getting on base.

Speed also enhances defense in the outfield, something that is often overlooked. A speedy outfielder will run down fly balls that might otherwise be hits, which decreases the amount of pitchers a hurler has to throw. A quick one, two, three inning versus a 39-pitch inning is a huge difference for a pitcher – not just one game, but the next few.

Defense and speed helps the starting and relief staff as well as the offense. Be careful wagering on teams with flawed leadoff hitters or a lack of speed/defense in the outfield, especially if they’re a favorite playing in a big park. Speed can be a very important, and often overlooked, part of the makeup of a team.

After all, it is not the hot teams in May and June that win the World Series, it is the team hottest in October. The 2002 and 2003 Angels and Marlins were great examples, along with the 2004 Red Sox and 2006 Cardinals. One year ago this week the San Francisco Giants were in third place in the NL West, five games over .500 with a losing road mark. All those teams were less than stellar in the first half of the season before catching fire down the stretch and winning the World Series.

Last summer the Giants (19 to 1 to win the World Series) really made their first move in July, starting 15-4 after the All Star break. After a so-so August San Francisco was three games out of first place on Labor Day until a sizzling September got them into the postseason. At the end of the first month of the 2002 season, the Angels were 11-14 and no one was talking about them as challengers in October. A year later, on June 1, 2003, the Florida Marlins were 26-32, looking up at the Braves, Phillies and Expos in the NL East. They were just one-game out of last place in the division and 100-to-1 shots to win the World Series. In October, they did.

Many times a roster a team currently has will not be the one they will be using in October, or even July. Managers are still tinkering with lineups, or practicing patience with slumping players hoping they will bust out of it. General Managers are reviewing team needs and plotting trades to upgrade positions and even minor leaguers can come up to help out.

This season, many talented teams have been waiting for key players to return from injuries or trying some new talent. The Red Sox are giving 26-year old lefty Andrew Miller a shot in the rotation because of the loss of starter Daisuka Matsuzaka. It’s an interesting move, as Miller was a Top 10 draft pick but flamed out with the Marlins and Tigers, who gave up on him. His first start with Boston last week was impressive, though it was against the light-hitting Padres.

The Cardinals have to wait another month to get star slugger Albert Pujols back. The Yankees have a pair of injured pitchers, veteran Bartolo Colon and young righty Phil Hughes, who they hope to get back soon to bolster their shaky rotation. How they return will influence whether they are players in the trading deadline next month for a starting pitcher.

Speaking of the trade deadline, Seattle has had a terrific surge the last month to put them in a pennant race with Texas. The Mariners are doing it with an incredible starting rotation of Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Doug Fister and young phenom Michael Pineda. It’s a bit reminiscent of the San Francisco team of a year ago, great pitching on a below average offensive team (and we saw how that turned out). But if the Mariners suddenly go into a tailspin and drop out of it, does management dangle any of those arms for some future bats? Any one of those dazzling Seattle arms could influence the pennant races if they get traded.

The Giants are in the market for a catcher following the loss of star Buster Posey. The Angels have been hit hard by injuries this season but have been competitive because of their starting pitching, second in the AL in team ERA, seventh overall. If they can ever get their offense healthy, Mike Scioscia’s troops could go on a run.

Another factor is the minor leagues, with teams sometimes able to bring up rookie talent to plug into holes. Sometimes they can be key contributors in the second half, and other times it will be done to showcase the young talent because they want to use the kids as trade bait for an established player. Minor league surprised and getting injured players back can be as important as a trade.

Indians: Cleveland was projected to be a last place team, then shot out of the gate like Secretariat with a 30-15 start in late May. Then this young team came back to earth, struggling on the road as the offense slipped considerably, which results in their batting coach being fired. Indians outfielder Shin-Soo Choo has a broken left thumb and will miss two month, as manager Manny Acta has been creative with lineups because of injuries and slumping players.
Despite the erratic offense, the pitching staff has been the glue behind their surprising season, ranked 13th in team ERA. The bullpen has been outstanding and the staff allows the third fewest walks in baseball. The under is 15-4-2 in Indians last 21 on grass. All eyes will be on the Cleveland management this month: Spend some bucks to bring in a quality bat or frontline starter? Or become sellers in the market, which would be a huge let down to their fans.

Phillies: The Phillies were expected to be the dominant team after the acquisition of free agent Cliff Lee in the winter. They have been, with the top record in baseball and tops in pitching ERA behind Roy Halladay, Lee and Cole Hamels. However, there are concerns. Starter Roy Oswalt has back problems and has been on and off the DL and the offense hasn’t been as good as expected.
After ranking seventh in runs and homers last season, Philadelphia has dipped to the middle of the pack in 2011 in both categories. They had been a dominant road team in recent years, but have been close to .500 away from home this season. There is some age, both with the staff and the offense, something to keep an eye on in the second half of the season. By the way, the under is 11-4 in Lee’s last 15 starts as a favorite.

Brewers: What a fascinating young team. No National League duo has more than the combined 37 homers and 127 RBI than Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. They’re both hitting better than .300 and are leading MVP candidates. The pitching staff might not be as deep as the Phillies, but what an outstanding trio of starters in Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum, the latter two new to the team this season. The Brewers are 15-7 in their last 22 against a team with a winning record, though they took it on the chin in the Bronx last week. Their weakness are poor road play and a below average bullpen, so look for this team to go heavy for any quality relief pitching available this month.

Cardinals: After a fast start the Cardinals have faded due to injuries. The offensive talent on this team is sensational, one of the top teams in baseball in runs, batting average, on base percentage and slugging. The over is 35-16-2 in the Cardinals last 53 road games. The Cards are built on two strengths, their starting pitching and the Albert Pujols/Matt Holliday combination in the middle of their batting order. Ace Adam Wainwright had Tommy John elbow surgery in late February, gone for the year, and Pujols is out a month with a recent wrist injury. Throw in a slew of other injuries and you wonder if 2011 just isn’t the Cardinals year. Is there help from the minors? Their farm system ranks 24th in the majors by Baseball America.

Diamondbacks: The young team that won’t go away! The Diamondbacks were supposed to be rebuilding under new manager Kirk Gibson, but this no-name group has been surprising good. The offense talent doesn’t really impress, outside of the only thing that matters: results. They are in the Top 7 in runs scored in baseball and winning despite a team ERA in the bottom 12. They’ve assembled a starting staff by stealing from other teams, with a rotation of Daniel Hudson (White Sox), Joe Saunders (Angels), Ian Kennedy (Yankees), Zach Duke (Pirates) and Armando Gallaraga (Tigers). This is a tough week for Arizona, a 10-game road trip leading to the break. The Diamondbacks are 21-10 in their last 31 games versus a right-handed starter.

Gaming Today, July 12, 2011 (Tuesday)

Baseball: Second Half Surges
by Jim Feist
The first half of the 2011 baseball season is in the books. There were surprising winners, such as the Indians, Marlins, Reds and Brewers, a lack of hitting league-wide, and some surprises such as the defending champion Giants playing close to .500 baseball. With the surprises out of the way, here’s a look at some teams that might be active at the trading deadline and primed to make a second half surge.

Mariners: You can make the argument that pitching is the key to a sustained second half run. If so, the Mariners could be a fun team to watch. Who wouldn’t want a rotation anchored by Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Jason Vargas and Eric Bedard? Pineda is just 22 years old and flew through their system with ace potential – and has been just as dominant at the big league level.
The offense, however, has been feeble, with little power. They are best playing National League-style ball, being aggressive on the base paths with Ichiro Suzuki. Getting Chone Figgins out of a funk would help the Mariners improve in steals. Would you deal one of their great arms for a big bat?

Tigers: Detroit was a disappointment much of the first half before making a June run, with a team ERA near the bottom of the league and an offense that scores runs but has not been able to manufacture any because of the slump of speedy centerfielder Austin Jackson. The 24-year old is only in his second year, so there are growing pains (he hit .293 with 27 steals last season).
However, there is plenty to like about this team, starting with: Austin Jackson! He could get hot in the second half, which happened a year ago when he hit .314 in July, his best month. Plus there is plenty of pop on offense with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta. The starting staff has a rare ace in Justin Verlander. They would like some consistency out of righties Max Scherzer and veteran Brad Penny, otherwise the Tigers might be shopping for an arm before the trade deadline in what looks like a wide-open AL Central.

Giants: Speaking of wide-open races, the NL West is. The Giants were the early season pick to run away with it, but the Rockies and surprising Diamondbacks are all in the mix, plus the San Francisco offense has been worse than last season. There are four reasons to believe the Giants won’t go away, though: Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner. San Francisco has an NL foursome to rival the Phillies which keeps away losing skids. While most teams will be shopping for pitching before the trade deadline, the Giants will be looking for bats and have arms to deal.

Red Sox: Boston spent much of the first month of the season trying to get out of fourth place in the AL East because of a horrible 2-10 start. However, they began to turn it around in May as the offense played up to its talent and the return of former staff ace Josh Beckett. Beckett is off consecutive lost seasons because of injuries, but has been healthy and sensational in 2011.
Teamed with young aces Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, this rotation is built for October. The offense has balance, with star power, on-base percentage and speed with Jacoby Ellsbury and newcomer Carl Crawford. The defense is outstanding, especially in the outfield, which also helps the pitching staff. They had an injury-prone June, however, and struggled on the road.

Rockies: Speaking of aces, when is Colorado going to get something out of the 27-year old arm of Ubaldo Jimenez? A year ago at this time he was the ultimate stopper, anchoring the rotation, but he’s lost command this summer. This is a fascinating starting staff with 23-year old Jhoulys Chacin and 30-year old Jorge De La Rosa and Jason Hammel.
De La Rosa is off Tommy John surgery while Hammel started off hot and cooled off. This offense should be much better with Todd Helton, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitski, the latter two who have been streaky. They could be in the market for a bat or arm before the trade deadline. This could be a wild NL West race to the finish.

Rays: Everyone lamented all the talent (Matt Garza, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena) they lost over the winter, but Tampa Bay has hung in there with speed, defense and pitching. That’s why their road record has been so impressive. This rotation of David Price, Wade Davis, James Shields and potential young ace Jeremy Hellickson is as good as any in the AL. Would you like to face that in October? If they can get there, that is.