Steve Janus - 5* Missouri Valey Bookie Beatdown ***8-2 NCAAB RUN***

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Matt Fargo - Fargo’s **10** NBA ENFORCER (AWESOME 14-7 NBA RUN)

Matt is coming off a tough overtime loss with Portland but is still on an AWESOME 14-7 NBA run and his streak going back to last year remains RED HOT as he is a COMMANDING 48-28-1 (63.2%) L77! He is back with a HUGE REPORT Tuesday and it is a BEAUTY that results in an EASY COVER! His EPIC 102-59-4 (63.4%) 2012 Rampage rolls on! Do not even think about missing this!

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Featured Free NBA Pick: Steve Janus

Utah Jazz +9

Pick Analysis:

The Jazz really put forth a disappointing effort against the short-handed Knicks last night. Utah has now lost three of their last four overall. The Jazz will be extremely motivated to win this game, and they are definitely talented enough to keep the final score under double-digits. A lot of people will be quick to jump on Indiana because the Jazz are playing their second game of a back-to-back road set, but I don’t think they used much energy at all last night.

The Pacers scored a season-low 81-points in a rare home loss to the Magic on Saturday. The Pacers have been inconsistent all season offensively. Utah doesn’t feature a great defense, but they do have a strong presence in the paint, which will force Indiana to shoot a lot of outside shots.

Utah is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record while Indiana is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. BET THE JAZZ!

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You’ll hear professional and college athletes say things like this all year, be it in basketball’s post or regular season. College basketball teams often play twice against conference opponents during the regular season, with each team splitting a game between their home court and the opponent’s. Other times, teams can meet on a neutral court during tournament play and sometimes teams meet a third time in February and March during tourney time.

What’s important to understand is that the site that a basketball game is played is extremely important, especially from a bettor’s point of view. Spend some time going through the records – straight up and against the spread – of your favorite college and pro hoops’ teams and you’ll be amazed at some of the differences.

Some teams will shoot lights out at home, averaging 78 points per game. Yet, the same players can turn into certified masons on the road averaging 59 points per game. It’s not uncommon to find college basketball teams with an overall record of 11-10. But if you dig deeper, you may find that team is 10-1 straight up at home, but 1-9 on the road. Some teams aren’t so extreme, but you’ll find many that are. Clearly, something (actually, a combination of many things) is taking place. For serious sports bettors, it’s important to identify these valuable wagering facets, apply meaning, and incorporate into your handicapping.

It’s not relegated to college hoops, either. Examine some of the home/road records of NBA teams over the years. One of the best examples I ever found was the Denver Nuggets in 2000-01. That season, the Nuggets were an average team with a 40-42 overall record. But going a step further and breaking it down, something remarkable takes shape: Denver had a winning spread record at home where they were 29-12 straight up, yet on the road, a completely different team showed up, where the Nuggets were 11-30 straight up and 16-25 against the spread! All of a sudden, that’s far from a near-.500 team, isn’t it? The Nuggets were one of the best teams in the NBA at home, and one of the worst on the road – both straight up and against the number!

Differences like this take place every basketball season, both in college and the pros. There are many reasons as to why this takes place. One is pride, which I mentioned at the beginning with the quote, “We’ll get ‘em on our court.” College basketball players at home have ten to fifteen thousand fans screaming behind them to play well, while booing the other team the entire game. In addition, professional basketball players know that at home the fans in the stands are paying their salaries, so it’s more likely pros will put forth a one-hundred percent effort to try and get a win for the home fans. It doesn’t make a lot of financial sense for players to give a lackadaisical effort and send the fans home unhappy, especially when fans are paying anywhere from $20-$200 for a ticket. That’s like someone buying a brand new car, then having it fall apart on the drive home from the dealership. That automobile company would lose its fan base – and its business – fast.

When teams go on the road they are not always inclined to give 100%, especially weak teams. Psychologically players can be thinking, “We’re not supposed to win here, so let’s just get this over with and head home.” This is why good coaches are so rare. Good ones have the capacity to motivate players to give it their all, whether they’re at home or not.

We start off the day at noon (ET) with Eastern Conference Atlantic Division foes Boston and New York squaring off at Madison Square Garden. The much anticipated finals rematch will follow before the Chicago Bulls and reigning NBA MVP Derrick Rose square off against the Lakers in Los Angeles at 5pm (ET).

At 8pm (ET), the Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Orlando Magic and the nightcap will take place in Oakland with the Golden State Warriors welcoming the Blake Griffin-led Los Angeles Clippers starting at 10:30pm (ET).

Because of the shortened season teams will be required to play at least one stretch of back-to-back-to- back games. Handicapping the NBA will be a little different this season as older teams like the Boston Celtics will have a tougher time playing up to five games a week as opposed to younger teams like the OKC Thunder.

We must also consider big trades as two superstars in Chris Paul and Dwight Howard are on the trading block along with a few other top notch players.

My preseason power ranking have the top five teams as the Miami Heat, L.A. Lakers, OKC Thunder, Chicago Bulls and the Dallas Mavs.

I do feel the Miami Heat will be even better this season and will learn how to put it all together for another championship run. I have Miami winning the East and the L.A. Lakers who are still trying to get their pieces together, winning the West to meet up in this seasons final.

Nevada Sportsbooks would have lost a good percentage of their business if the NBA did indeed cancel the season but directors around town are telling me they are getting good action on the Christmas Day games that are now posted at some books.

As bettors here in Las Vegas we will be watching very carefully how the oddsmakers adjust the early NBA season numbers and try to find value.

I will be posting two to three NBA games for Christmas Day so look for my winning selections.

The regular season will conclude April 26, with the postseason set to begin two days later.

The last possible day of the NBA Finals will be on June 26.

Having a dominant low post player is a rare commodity, much like having an ace pitcher in baseball. The 2011 NBA Finals will be interesting as Miami has 6-11 Chris Bosh and 6-8 Udonis Haslem. Bosh is more finesse, a bit on the skinny side at 235-pounds, while Haslem is hard working but undersized. They got the job done against the Bulls, after getting killed on the glass in Game 1, but the Dallas Mavericks present a very different challenge.

The Mavs have three 7-footers in Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and Brandon Haywood to throw at the Miami frontcourt. That’s going to put more pressure on LeBron and Dwyane Wade to score, which they’ve been able to do well this far.

It’s also a rematch of the 2006 NBA Finals, a series Dallas was up 2-0 and should have won, but Miami won four close games in a row. Jason Terry and Nowitzki are the only holdovers from the 2006 Mavericks; Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem are the only guys remaining on the Heat. Both teams have changed coaches and playing styles, too. The Mavericks are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog and 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 road games.

The Heat is not nearly as deep as the Mavericks, and the depth that the Mavericks have is a bit better to the Heat’s. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Joel Anthony and Mario Chalmers haven’t been very productive, Mike Bibby has been marginal. Mike Miller is a nice three-point threat, but is only playing 10 minutes a game in the postseason and averaging 2.2 points. It’s clear Miami intends to ride the Big 3. The Heat is 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games playing on 3 or more days rest, which will be the case for Game 1, while the road team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings between these teams.

So many bettors look strictly at stats for everything. While stats can indeed tell us a lot, there is far more to the wagering puzzle. Stats can tells us how many points an NBA team allows during the regular season, but can that accurately project how many they will then give up in the playoffs? Many teams clamp down much harder in the playoffs with so much at stake. Matchups, too, make a difference, which will be fascinating for the Finals. Who will guard Dirk? Who will guard LeBron. Whoever it is, good luck!

Experience is another intangible that is difficult to quantify statistically. The Celtics and Lakers have been loaded with experience the last four years, winning three titles between them and having two other teams that got to the Finals and lost.

For 2011, both the Heat and Mavericks have a lot of experienced players. The Heat won the Eastern Conference finals on Thursday at United Center with an 83-80 victory against the Bulls, a fierce defensive effort. The Heat shot just 33.3 percent in the third quarter but managed to outscore Chicago 19-17, then won it with a late charge. The same kind of late charge Dallas has had several times in the playoffs. Dallas can play defense, 10th in the NBA in points allowed during the regular season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them push the pace with their depth and offensive ability. That would be a change, too, after Miami just played two slow-down series against Boston and Chicago. And they have gone 8-3 over the total in the last 11 meetings in Miami. Enjoy the Finals (and it’s about time!)

Miami is 70-27 SU, 50-46-1 ATS, 100.6 Points For, 93.6 Points Against.

Dallas is 69-28 SU, 56-38-3 ATS, 100.2 Points For, 95.5 Points Against.

The Game 1 line is currently Miami -4 ½ and a Total of 187 ½. The Money Line on Game 1 is: Miami -210, Dallas +175

1st Half Wagering: Miami -2 ½ Total 94.

The Series Price: Miami -190, Dallas +165

Odds To Win The Series In Exact Number Of Games:

Mav’s 4-0 14/1

Mav’s 4-1 6/1

Mav’s 4-2 6/1

Mav’s 4-3 5/1

Heat 4-0 9/1

Heat 4-1 7/1

Heat 4-2 3/1

Heat 4-3 2/1

Props:

Total Points Scored By Mav’s Game 1; 91 ½. Over -115. Under -115.

Total Points scored By Heat Game 1; 95 ½. Over -115. Under -115.

Total Points By LeBron James Game 1. 26 ½. Over -125. Under -105.

Total Points By Dwyane Wade Game 1. 24 ½. Over -115. Under -115.

Total Points By Chris Bosh Game 1. 18 ½. Over -110. Under -120.

Totals Assists By James Game1. 6 ½. Over -105. Under -125.

Total Rebounds By Bosh Game 1. 8 ½. Over -120. Under -110.

Total 3 Point FG’s By Both Teams Game 1. 13. Over -115. Under -115.

1st Team to Score 20 Or More Points Game1. Heat -140. Mavs +110.

Total Points Scored By Dirk Nowitzki Game 1. 25 ½. Over -130. Under Even.

Total Points Scored By Shawn Marion Game 1. 11 ½. Over -110. Under -120.

Total Points Scored By Jason Kidd Game 1. 8 ½. Over -105. Under -125.

Total Assists By Jason Kidd Game 1. 7 ½. Over -125. Under -105.

Total Rebounds By Tyson Chandler Game 1. 9 ½. Over -115. Under -115.

There you have it, sports fans. Good Luck. Joe D’Amico.

Unless you’re a Dallas Mavericks fan. The thirty-something Mavericks, a No. 3 seed, pulled some surprises of their own to advance to the NBA Finals. Despite the site of 26-year old Jose Barea running all over the place, this is an older, veteran Dallas Mavericks team. You have 32-year old Dirk Nowitzki (who turns 33 in June), 33-year old Shawn Marion, Jason Terry and Peja Stojakovic (both 33) and 38-year old Jason Kidd.

While the NBA is more of an athletic game, primed for young legs, the experience of the Mavericks certainly has helped them. They were poised in their upset series win over the defending champion Lakers, even when trailing on the road, then watched Oklahoma City fall apart at key stretches while the veteran Mavs executed so well at crunch time.

There really haven’t been many youthful teams winning the NBA title lately. The Celtics and Lakers were veteran teams that clashed in the Finals in 2008 and last year. The experienced Lakers topped the young Orlando Magic in 2009, blowing out the kids in Game 1, 100-75. Prior to that veteran teams like the Spurs, Pistons and 2006 Miami Heat won titles.

Ahh, the Miami Heat, and here they are again. They really aren’t that youthful, with LeBron James the only kid at age 26, and even he’s been in the league eight years. He’s also been in the NBA Finals in 2007 with Cleveland. Dwyane Wade (age 29) already has a ring with the 2006 Heat, a veteran team that also had Shaq, Antoine Walker, Udonis Haslem and Gary Payton.

You will be seeing two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, which shouldn’t surprise: Miami was sixth in points allowed during the regular season, Dallas was 10th; Miami was second in field goal defense (.434%), while Dallas was 8th (.450%). The over is 13-6-1 in the Mavericks last 20 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, while Miami is 9-4 over the total in their last 13 games as a road underdog.
Both teams had some difficulties in the first half of the season, but came on like gang busters down the stretch. You know the old saying: It’s not who starts the race hot, it’s who finishes first.

Dallas won both regular season meetings, though those were back in November and December. The Mavericks won 106-95 at home in the first meeting in a contest that sailed over the total of 189. Miami was 9-8 at the time and had just called a players only meeting the previous game. The Mavericks outscored the Heat 48-26 in the paint and held Miami to 41% shooting. Miami had a big edge at the free throw line (35 attempts to 22), but Dallas was 7 of 17 from long range.

Dallas has won 14 consecutive regular season games over Miami since March 2004, and 17 of 18. That doesn’t include the 2006 NBA Finals, when the Heat won in six games after losing the first two. The Mavericks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game and 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games following a straight up win.

In the most recent meeting, December 20th at Miami, the Mavericks won again, 98-96, as a +7 dog. The game went over the total of 189. The Mavericks held LeBron James scoreless in the first half on the way to ending Miami’s 12-game winning streak as Miami shot just .406%. Dallas was again strong from long range, hitting 8 of 21 three points (38%), while Miami was 11 of 31 (35%).

Keep in mind the Mavericks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, while the Heat is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games playing on one day’s rest. Terry has spoken often about how losing to Miami in the 2006 NBA finals still upsets him. He gets his chance this week to do more than talk about it!

SU: 2-0 (6.5)
ATS: 2-0-0 (8.5) avg line: 2.0
O/U: 2-0-0 (7.5) avg total: 190.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
Team: 24.5 22.5 26.5 28.5 102.0
Opp: 24.0 22.5 20.5 28.5 95.5

Field Goals Threes Free Throws Blocks O Rbnds Rbnds Fouls Assists TrnOvrs
Team: 36.5-80.5 (45.3%) 7.5-19.0 (39.6%) 21.5-25.0 (86.0%) 2.0 11.5 47.0 23.0 22.0 12.0
Opp: 32.5-79.5 (40.9%) 8.0-23.0 (34.4%) 22.5-30.0 (74.0%) 5.5 13.0 43.5 22.0 17.5 13.0

Date Team Opp Site Final Rest FG% Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
20101127 DAL MIA H 106-95 0&0 45-41 -2′ +188′ 11 8.5 12.5 10.5 2.0 W W O
20101220 DAL MIA A 98-96 2&1 44-40 +6′ +191′ 2 8.5 2.5 5.5 -3.0 W W O

The Mavericks have not lost to Miami since that finals ending loss in 2006. They have won 10 straight games in the series, including both games this season by a combined 102-95 score. In the 2 games this season, Dallas had the better shooting numbers 45% to 40% and shot 12% better from the free throw line. They also won the rebounding battle and had more assists and less turnovers. Miami had their biggest edge in blocked shots. Miami has 3 bona fide stars on their team in James, Wade and Bosh. However their bench does not have the depth or versatility that the Dallas bench has. Miami was able to contain D. Rose of Chicago with various double teams and solid defense from Lebron James late in the fourth quarter of their series. Dallas has Nowitzki and while he will be hard to stop he will have the added benefit of having other players on his team to pick up the scoring, such as J. Terry and S. Marion. Down low T. Chandler will be clogging the middle which could make it difficult for C. Bosh to enjoy the success he’s had in the last 2 rounds, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Dallas in general plays much better defense than they have in previous years. Unfortunately they are under rated defensively. Going into the OK. City series they were holding everyone to under 100 points. They have proved to be the type of team that could win in a low scoring game as well as a high scoring game. Miami will tighten the defense on them and the key to the series will be how open, and how much time Dallas has to get open looks. That’s where veteran point guard J. Kidd may play the largest role. He is a proven leader with big game experience and should be able to move the ball around and do enough in defense to be a big factor in this series. Miami and Dallas should be a great series, one that may very well go the 7 game distance. Dallas has handled South East Divison teams to a 9-1 tune this season and have covered in 13 of their last 15 games. Our Selection here is to Take the Dallas Mavericks to win this series at plus money.

Rob Finished the 2010-11 NBA Regular Season 15 games over .500 and was 24 games over .500 in both NFL and College Football Combined. In 2010 Rob Had a solid Baseball season with the Arrival of his all new Diamond Cutter MLB Systems, which release plays through systems that win by 3 or more runs per game. As a result MLB Was a solid 21 games over .500 on the season. Rob also does a weekly sports talk radio segment on Monday nights at 8:05 eastern. Listen online at 88.9 wsia.fm At the end of the segment Rob shares a solid free pick. RV

Let’s get back to the business at hand. The 2011 NBA Final’s has the Dallas Maverick’s competing with the Miami Heat for the title. Five years after Miami won its first and only NBA Championship over Dallas, the two squads meet again. Miami became just the third team in NBA history to win the Championship after being down 2-0.

The Heat was the 2^nd seed in the East and shredded through the 76er’s, Celtic’s and Bull’s. The Maverick’s were the West’s 3^rd seed and trampled over the Blazer’s, Laker’s, and Thunder. Miami ran through Philadelphia in 5 games, Boston in 5, and Chicago in 5. Dallas needed 6 games to beat Portland, just 4 with Los Angeles, and 5 to take Oklahoma City. Both squads mirrored one another in each of their Conference’s Championship series’. Both had some troubles early in their series and early in each game with their opponents. But post-season experience helped Miami over Chicago as well as Dallas over Oklahoma City.

The “Dream team” of Miami has surely progressed in the past few months. Wade, James, and Bosh are playing like they have been together for years. On the other side, Dirk Nowitzki is unstoppable while Jason Kidd is proving that he can still get it done. On paper, Miami has a statistically better defense but I must give Dallas an edge on “D” because of the way they frustrate their opponents.

Now, let’s break down the positions.

At Point Guard, the Maverick’s Jason Kidd may not be as quick as he once was but the 16-year veteran has a ton of Playoff experience and 107 triple-doubles. Kidd is a great clutch player that can steal, pass, and shoot. Miami’s Mike Bibby has really risen at the stop-end and can contribute on the offensive side as well. But, has his limits. Dallas has the edge here.

At the Shooting Guard slot, the Heat’s Dwyane Wade is a machine. Even on a team with LeBron James, Wade is the “go-to’ guy.  He is a playmaker at both ends of the court.  The 2006 NBA Final’s MVP has averaged 25.5 PPG and 6.4 RPG on the season. The Mav’s, DeShawn Stevenson is big and strong but can not be mentioned to be on the same level as Wade. There is a huge advantage for Miami here.

The Small Forward position for the Heat has Lebron James. Without a doubt, James is one of the best players in the world. He has size, strength, and more talent than any two players in the NBA. The superstar has posted 26.7 PPG and 7.5 RPG this year. During the Playoff’s, King James upped his rebounds to 8.9 a game.  His defensive prowess is unbelievable. Because he is such a force on the offensive side, his defensive skills are overlooked. But the million dollar question is…Can he win the Big Game? Until he does, the naysayers will doubt him. Shawn Marion is at the SF slot for Dallas. He has solid numbers with 12.5 PPG and 6.9 RPG. Marion can play “D” with the best of them. But he must go up against LeBron James here. And he will be outshined in the series. Another big edge for Miami.

Dallas’ Power Forward, Dirk Nowitzki is by far the best player in this post-season. Nowitzki might as well wear a cape and his initial on his chest. Like fine wine, the Forward is getting better with age. He has averaged 23.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and over 34 minutes a game this season. His numbers are even more remarkable in the Playoff’s, with 28.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG, a 52% shooting percentage, and was 59-61 from the line in the Thunder series. Chris Bosh rounds out the Big 3 for the Heat. The PF is the teams’ best rebounder with 8.3 RPG. He posts 18.7 PPG and is considered one of the better Power Forwards in the NBA. He is known to have problems against physical players. Dirk Nowtzki isn’t known as a physical guy but Bosh will find himself in the same boat as every other player that has tried to slow down Nowitzki. The Mav’s have the edge here.

Let’s talk Bench. Haslem, Miller, and Chalmers have been phenomenal coming off the bench for Miami. They each have different talents and are a big part of the teams’ post-season success. Jones and House can also adequately add 15-20 minutes a game. Jason Terry is the Maverick’s leading scorer after Dirk Nowitzki with 15.8 PPG on the season and 17.3 PPG in the Playoff’s. Technically, I would consider him a starter because he plays over 31 MPG. He is underrated as a clutch player. Jose Barea can rotate in for 20 MPG and add 9.5 PPG while Brandon Haywood is not really a scorer but the 7’0, 265 lb. Center is able to play solid ball while Tyson Chadler is getting a rest. If there is an edge to be had, it is a very small one for Miami. But the benches are pretty much even.

As far as coaches go, Rick Carlisle is solid. He knows both offense and defense and utilizes his players well. His is best known for getting along with the eccentric owner of the Mav’s, Mark Cuban. Erik Spoelstra was a student of Pat Riley. He joined the Heat in 95’ as the squad’s video coordinator. He has a great relationship with his players and really stresses defense.

No matter what, players like Nowitzki, Terry, Wade, and James are going to score points. Miami has three superstars while Dallas has a bit more size.

Here is the numbers breakdown for both teams;

Dallas is 69-28 SU and 56-38-3 ATS. They average 100.2 PPG on offense and yield 95.5 PPG on defense. Miami is 70-27 SU and 50-46-1 ATS. They post 100.6 PPG while giving up 93.6 PPG.

Here are some Against The Spread stats:

Head-to-head finds Dallas 5-2 ATS the L7 meetings vs. Miami. The Mav’s are 6-0-1 ATS their L7 games played as a ‘dog and 19-6-1 ATS their L26 overall. The Heat are 6-0 ATS their L6 as a favorite and 4-0 ATS their L4 overall.

These two teams met twice this season, each hosting 1 game apiece. Dallas won and covered both meetings. However, the 2 contests were back in November and December when the Heat were still trying to mesh.

A season ago, I was documented at 5-2 in the NBA Final’s. Overall, I am documented at 53-30 the L2 NBA post-seasons. I WILL finish this season stronger than ever. Get each of my NBA  winner’s right here. Thank you and Good Luck. Joe D

For instance, after losing Game 1 114-101 at home, the Thunder bounced back and topped Memphis, 111-102 the next game, covering as six-point chalk. The Lakers blew out the Hornets in Game 3, 100-86, then the a different New Orleans club showed up the next game, winning straight up as a +5 dog.

A year ago after losing Game 1, the Celtics stunned the Cavaliers in Game 2, 104-86, at Cleveland as an underdog. At one point they led 91-66. A big part of the story was Rasheed Wallace, who had been called out by Coach Doc Rivers after a lousy opener, but added 17 points off the bench.

Incensed, the Cavaliers had a few days to stew about the embarrassing home defeat, then went to Boston for Game 3 and blew out the Celtics, 124-95. It was Boston’s worst home playoff defeat in history and the Cavs shot 59%. The fans booed when Boston left the court at halftime down 65-43. Series over? No. Boston then won the next three games, including a blowout of their own, 120-88 with Cleveland fans booing their team!

Overall, blowouts are less expected this time of the year. Oddsmakers are anticipating that the majority of teams want to be here and will play all out for 48 minutes keeping things relatively close. This year’s Magic/Hawks series was a good example, with four of the six games decided by 6, 4, 3 and 3 points. Two years ago the Celtics/Bulls first round series saw 3 of the 5 games going into overtime and four decided by 3 points or less. 

Playoff teams have some talent or star players, which also makes closer, more competitive games likely, especially as the playoffs move along. Still, one-sided games can happen for a variety of reasons. Five years ago the Spurs positively trashed the Kings in Game 1, 122-88. The stats on the game were frightening, with San Antonio shooting 57% and holding the Kings to 39%, while winning the battle of the boards 51-32.

The blowout, combined with the suspension of Ron Artest, helped push the betting line from 8 to 12 for the next game. However, a funny thing happened in Game 2: the Kings showed up. They showed up with a vengeance, too, taking the Spurs to overtime before a wild 128-119 loss, though the angry dog still covered. Public perception can be such that many were thinking the Spurs were going to destroy the Kings even worse in Game 2. However, the veteran Kings were embarrassed and angry. A very different team showed up for Game 2, one that was motivated by the blowout.

The point is, don’t easily dismiss teams that get routed. If they have talent, are well coached, or have strong leadership, they can bounce back and look like a very different team the next game. Another factor to consider is defense. Many teams that make the postseason know how to play defense and in a blowout loss, perhaps a team simply had a bad defensive game. Or, the opponent was doing something that they couldn’t adjust to. Though after watching game films, adjustments are made, which is why they can look very different. 

That happened in the Wizards/Cavaliers series in 2008. Cleveland won Game 2, 116-86, then Washington came home and took a must-win game by 36 points, 108-72. Had the tide turned? No, Cleveland won Game 4 as a road dog, 100-97. Adjustments and motivation can spur a team in a bounce-back role, as well as the fact that they simply had a bad game. Even handicappers have to learn not to over analyze certain situations. The important point is not too read too much into a single, one-sided game.

Even regular season games can have an effect. On opening night four seasons ago, the defending champion Heat were hosting the Bulls and were demolished 108-66 by Chicago on championship banner and ring night. Don’t think the Heat forgot, because when the rematch took place in Miami, Chicago was thrashed, 103-70. One Miami player said after the payback, “We knew we owed this team,” while the coach added, “Our guys took it to heart.”

The playoffs only increase competitive fire and passion with teams facing each other over and over again, making adjustments and revenge spots even more acute. You may recall the NBA Finals five years ago, when two blowouts were followed by close nail-biters, with the dog covering. Dallas won Game 2, 99-85, but the next game Miami won by a basket. In Game 4, the Heat rolled by 24 points, only to see Game 5 go into overtime and decided by one point.

This is nothing new. Six years ago in the Finals, the Pistons destroyed the Spurs 102-71 in Game 4. The next game, the Spurs were a +3.5 dog, yet got their revenge in a 96-95 straight up win. When the playoffs opened that season, the Celtics danced all over the Pacers in a 102-82 Game 1 rout. Boston players made foolish comments after the game about how they were already thinking about advancing to the next round! In Game 2, a very different Indiana team showed up in an 82-79 win as a road underdog. They eventually won the series, too. Every dog can have his day in the NBA playoffs, so be careful: one-sided blowouts can be very different the next encounter.

It’s not easy to win when the other team has an edge on the glass, especially the offensive glass. The offensive boards, in particular, can be a killer this time of the season, with offensive rebounds followed by high percentage shots and easy lay-ups.

Guard Derek Rose sliced up Atlanta for a career-high 44 points as the Bulls seized control of the Eastern Conference semifinals with their best performance of the postseason, romping to a 99-82 victory over the Hawks in Game 3 Friday night. The diminutive but quick point guard got all the headlines with his 44 points, but does anything else stand out about the game? How about Chicago with a whopping rebound edge of 47-34…on the opponent’s home court! That included 18 offensive rebounds. That was the real story of Game 3, which puts the top seeded Bulls back in command.

“Just attacking the whole game,” Rose said. “That was my whole thought process.” He could have been talking about teammates Noah and Boozer, too.

Five of the top six teams in rebounding differential during the regular season were Chicago, Orlando, Miami, the Lakers and Oklahoma City. Five made the playoffs and four are still playing.

When Miami won the title back in 2006, the Washington Wizards caught a break in Game 3 of their playoff series when Shaquille O’Neal sat out the game with a sore thigh. At least they thought it was a break. Miami won Game 3 102-95 to take a 3-0 lead in the series. A quick look at the box score shows how and why: Without the game’s most dominant big man, Miami still outrebounded Washington 43-29 in that game.

Finesse teams that run uptempo, attacking styles like in the 1980s haven’t been able to squeeze into the Finals in quite a while, with monster defensive teams usually advancing. Back in 2004, the Lakers (+0.7 rebounding differential) met the Pistons (+2.1 RD) in the Finals and again the better rebounding team won, even though Los Angeles was a heavy favorite.

A dominant frontcourt behind Tim Duncan was the biggest reason the Spurs have won 4 NBA titles over the 12 years, and why the Celtics behind Kevin Garnett have been to two of the last three NBA Finals. The one year they didn’t make it, 2009, Garnett missed the playoffs with an injury.

One or two talented frontcourt players help in subtle ways, too. A guard can cheat defensively at times, letting his man go by him knowing that a big man is waiting down low to pick up his man and perhaps block the shot or grab the defensive rebound. Also, if a team needs a defensive or offensive rebound late in the game, or a high percentage shot, teams like Boston, Miami, Dallas or the Lakers have the option to go outside or inside. Teams with no star big men, like the Nuggets, Bucks, Pacers or 76ers, don’t have that option, making them more limited and easier to defend at crunch time. And what did Oklahoma City do at midseason that helped make them even better? Traded for defensive center Kendrick Perkins, which paid two dividends. In addition to adding a shot blocker/rebounder, the trade freed up room in the frontcourt to start Serge Ibaka, who has been terrific. It’s still a big man’s game!