Both ranked in the bottom half of the league in points allowed with the Giants 25th and the Pats were second worst in yards allowed. On the other hand, both defenses have been strong down the stretch. The Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games, and the Under is 8-2 in the Giants last 10 playoff games. The Patriots are 12-6 over the total, including a 7-1 run over in the playoffs.

In an attempt to look forward towards Sunday’s big game, let’s take a look backward. Backward at defense, that is. A year ago the Steelers and Packers were both ranked are in the Top 10 in total defense.

Two years ago was a bit of an oddity, as both the Colts and Saints were dynamite offensively but had poor overall defensive stats. That’s not the norm. Eight years ago the Patriots were 7th in total defense and the Carolina Panthers were 8th. In addition, run defense is a bit more important statistically than pass defense, because it’s essential to be able to stop the run first. If the opposition can run successfully, especially on third down and short situations, there is less of a need to pass. Also, a successful running attack makes the passing game much more effective, with play-actions drawing the safeties forward and defenses having to bring more linebackers and defensive backs closer to the line of scrimmage. This can create mismatches and single coverage downfield, which is why offensive coordinators love balanced offenses. In that Super Bowl, the Patriots were 3rd against the run, the Panthers 11th. The Patriots won 32-29.

Nine years ago, the Raiders had the No. 1 offense in the NFL but the ‘D’ was 11th overall and a poor 23rd against the run. Tampa Bay was No. 1 in total defense and No. 6 against the run. The result? A huge win for the defense, as the underdog Bucs trashed the Raiders 48-21. Chalk up a big “W” for defense!

Nine years ago the Patriots were 24th in total ‘D’ and 18th against the run. The 14-point favorite Rams were No. 2 in total ‘D’ and 3rd against the run. That partly explains why the Patriots 20-17 upset win was one of the biggest surprises in Super Bowl history. Although there’s no denying that the Pats were better defensively than the stats might suggest with Bill Belichick in charge. The Pats ‘D’ had also played exceptionally well the final ten games of that season. And in 2008 the defense of the Giants knocked off the No. 1 offense, 17-14, as a +12 Super Bowl dog over the Pats.

11 years ago the Ravens were No. 2 in total defense and No. 1 against the rush. The Giants were No. 5 in total ‘D’ and No. 2 against the rush. Chalk another one up for defense as the Ravens dominated in a 34-7 rout.

12 years ago the Rams had an explosive offense behind MVP Kurt Warner, No. 1 in total offense. But don’t forget that St. Louis team was also No. 6 in total defense and No. 1 against the run! Their opponent, Tennessee, was 17th in total ‘D’ and 10th against the run. Chalk about another win for the better Super Bowl defense in the Rams’ 23-16 victory.

Want to go back further? The Denver Broncos won back to back Super Bowl titles behind QB John Elway and an explosive offense. But lost in the shuffle of the strong offense was that Denver’s defense ranked 5th and 11th in those years, when they beat Atlanta and Green Bay. The Falcons had a slightly better overall defense (8th) but Denver was statistically better than the 1997 Packers, who were a poor 20th against the run. Green Bay was a big favorite in that Super Bowl, but Terrell Davis exploited that weak run ‘D’ in Denver’s victory as a big dog.

So, yes, defense is more important to have than offense on Super Sunday. And this season? The Patriots are 31st in total defense, the Giants Steelers No. 29 against the pass, with the No. 19 run defense, 121 yards rushing per game. A year ago the Steelers and Packers were ranked No. 1 and 2 in the NFL in points allowed, but this season the Pats and Giants are 17th and 25th in points allowed. An aberration? Or is this a year we see a 38-34 shootout?

We have been in a golden age for the AFC for a while. It’s almost as if the pendulum has swung. During the 1980s and much of the 90s, the NFC dominated, winning 15 of 16 Super Bowls, including 13 in a row. That changed in 1998 when Denver upset Green Bay, 31-24. Since then, the AFC has won 9 of the last 14, though the Giants would like to make it three in a row after the Saints and Packers won the last two seasons.
Since 2004 rules have been changed by the NFL to favor offense. That includes enforcing the 5-yard rule to help wide receivers get down field with less hindrance and the Tom Brady rule, which protects quarterbacks. When the top-ranked offenses met two years ago, following the pass-happy Arizona Cardinals surprising run to the Super Bowl the previous season, many wondered if offense was now they way to build a championship team.

We get another answer to that puzzle as the Patriots are the modern “flashy offense” while the Giants are old school, with a powerhouse defensive line. Defense has almost always been the name of the game this time of the season and it appears defense has made a significant statement. The Saints and Packers got it done with offense this season, but the defensive-oriented 49ers and Giants upset them in the playoffs. A year ago in the conference finals, four teams (Steelers, Jets, Packers, Bears) were ranked in the Top 10 in total defense and Top 6 in points allowed. The Packers and Steelers are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in points allowed, so maybe defense isn’t dead yet!

The Giants have been amazing in that they were 7-7 and on the bubble to even make the playoffs before a sizzling 5-0 Su/ATS run. And how bad is this New England defense? They were second worst during the regular season, but have allowed 10 and 20 points in two playoff games, highlighted by the return of S Patrick Chung and LB Brandon Spikes, out much of the year.

The Giants hope to continue a trend: The underdog is 7-3 ATS the last ten Super Bowls, winning four times. Here’s a look at what to expect this weekend as America’s unofficial national holiday, the Super Bowl, kicks off.

What the Giants want to do: New York prefers to run the football and control the clock with RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, which will be imperative against New England’s no-huddle attack that can tire out defenses. The Giants rushed for 173 yards against the Falcons 6th-ranked run defense in the postseason and the NY defense allowed 247 total yards.

Their defensive front is so big and talented they probably won’t have to blitz a lot to get pressure on Tom Brady, which is what took place in the 2008 Super Bowl as the New England offensive line was manhandled.

While everyone is talking about the New York defensive line, don’t forget that QB Eli Manning (37 TDs, 17 INTs) leads an offense that is 5th in the NFL in passing, with 296 yards per game. WR Victor Cruz has been outstanding (1,536 yards) along with WR Hakeem Nicks (1,192 yds) and will be a handful for this soft New England secondary. The Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games, the Under is 8-2 in the Giants last 10 playoff games.

What the Patriots want to do: Get out in front early with their no-huddle and force the Giants to throw the football, playing their game. The Pats are at their best when forcing the other team to push the tempo which allows them to force turnovers, a formula they used last season, as well, when they led the league in turnovers while going 14-2.

The Patriots (15-3 SU, 9-8-1 ATS) offense is explosive behind QB Tom Brady (45 TDs, 15 INTs), WR Wes Welker (1,569 yards) and budding young star Rob Gronkowski (1,327 yards), as his 17 TDs set a record for tight ends. These teams met November 6 at New England and the Giants won, 24-20, as Manning threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to Jake Ballard with 15 seconds left. The Patriots had 438 yards (332 passing) but were 5 of 15 on third down; the Giants had 361 yards (250 passing and were 4 of 14 on third down. The Patriots turned it over 4 times (2 picks by Brady) while the Giants turned it over twice. Manning completed 20 of 39 passes for 250 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Brady was 28 for 49 for 342 yards and two touchdowns. Over the last 35 years, the “over” has gone 21-15 in Super Bowl play, though the under is 5-2 the last six years. Enjoy the big game!

San Francisco will host New York at 4:30 p.m. EST on Sunday for the NFC Championship Game. The winner advances to the Super Bowl (you may have heard of that) to face either Baltimore or New England.

The 49ers and Giants advanced to the NFC Title Game thanks to incredible defensive efforts last week, out muscling the No. 1 and No. 3 offenses in football, respectively, in wins over the Saints and Packers. San Francisco and New York forced turnovers and took advantage of weaker defenses in both games, and now they will bang heads in what should be another NFC Championship Game between these long-time rivals.

Storylines

This week’s New York-San Francisco championship game harkens back to some of the most historic postseason games in NFL history.

Their last playoff meeting was a 39-38 thriller in the 2003 Wild Card Round in which the Niners overcame a four-touchdown deficit, and the last time they met in the NFC Championship Game was a classic at San Fran back in 1991.

This week’s game is a rematch of a Nov. 13 game in the Bay Area. The 49ers took that game, 27-20, on the strength of 15 fourth-quarter points. The Giants outgained the Niners 395-305 and they actually moved the ball to the San Francisco 10-yard-line with under two minutes to play. But their effort for a tying touchdown was thwarted and they turned the ball over on downs.

To say that these two franchises have history is an understatement. But right now the Giants are the hottest team in the NFL. This team has won four straight must-win games – three of which were games in which a loss would have ended their season. Those four wins have all come by at least 15 points and right now New York is just wrecking people.

Offensively, the Giants have been multidimensional and explosive the past two weeks. They have tallied 24 and 37 points so far in the playoffs and they have managed 24 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.

The Giants have managed at least 420 total yards in each of their playoff games. But the key to their offense has been the big-play capability of receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. That duo has contributed at least one touchdown play of 66 yards or longer in each of the last four games. And that doesn’t include last week’s game-changing Hall Mary touchdown by Nicks right before halftime in Green Bay.

The 49ers won’t have any fear of the Giants this week. This is a team they have already knocked off once and they will feed off the emotion of a raucous, title-starved San Francisco crowd.

San Francisco possesses the best defense left in the playoffs. They ranked No. 4 overall and No. 2 in the NFL in scoring during the regular season. The Niners also have one of the best rush defenses of the past 15 years and their front seven has been punishing opponents all season long.

Alex Smith has to be one of the most confident quarterbacks left in the playoffs. He produced last week’s incredible comeback and right now he has to be playing with house money. The Niners clearly have a lot of confidence in their quarterback – and in their incredible rookie coach, Jim Harbaugh – and that is crucial heading into an elimination game like this one.

But if San Francisco is going to win this game it will be on the strength of their power running game. The 49ers posses the No. 8 rushing offense in football and they will be pounding against, statistically, the league’s No. 19 rushing defense.

As has been the case throughout NFL history – exemplified by this season – the team that wins the turnover battle will most likely advance. New York didn’t force a turnover from the Falcons in their wild card game but they did stop Atlanta on fourth down twice. Last week the Giants won the turnover battle, 4-1, at Green Bay while the Niners benefitted from the aforementioned plus-four turnover differential.

Odds

According to NFL odds, the 49ers are token 2.5-point favorites in this game solely out of respect for the fact that they have the home field advantage. It is telling that they haven’t even received the token 3.0-point favorite status that home field usually garners. The Niners were 4.0-point favorites in the first meeting.

The total opened at 43.5 but has since plunged down to 42.5 as everyone expects this to be a close, low scoring game. Both teams played ‘over’ their respective totals last week and the first matchup went ‘over’ the total of 42.5.

Trends

The Giants continue to thrive in the underdog role this time of year. New York is 7-0 ATS in its last six playoff games as an underdog and they are 7-0 ATS in their last six road playoff games. The Giants are 7-1 ATS overall in their last seven postseason games and 6-2 ATS both overall as an underdog and on the road. Overall, the Giants are 35-17 ATS on the road and 20-8 ATS away from home against a team with a winning record.

San Francisco is now 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games overall and they are a stellar 19-6-3 ATS in their last 28 home games. San Fran is 12-3-1 ATS in conference games and 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. Although it has been a while since they have been in the postseason, the Niners are 4-1 ATS in their last five January games.

The favorite in this series is a perfect 4-0 ATS and the home team has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Giants are 5-1 ATS the last six times these clubs have faced off, dating back to 2002.

Predictions

Right now I feel like it is impossible to bet against the Giants. They have absolutely manhandled both Atlanta and Green Bay and I feel like both of those teams are better than the 49ers right now. The Giants are smoking hot right now and they have an edge in talent at the skill positions. Mix in the fact that they essentially outplayed San Francisco in the first matchup (and the Giants weren’t playing nearly as well then as they are now) and I think that the Giants will keep rolling.

I don’t want to take anything away from San Francisco’s outstanding home win last week against New Orleans. They came to play in that game and make big play after big play. But New Orleans is a weak road team and they essentially spotted the 49ers a 17-point lead. The Niners won the turnover battle, 5-1, and yet they still needed a last-ditch, last-second drive to pull out the win.

I know there is some sharp money on the home team here. And we will be pinned against the public by taking the Giants. But right now I think that New York is playing the best football in the league. Take the points and the G-Men.

However, during the conference championship games that kick off this weekend, history shows us that the two remaining teams in each conference are often on fairly equal footing, both straight up and against the spread. You might think the team with the home field has a big edge.

The last three years all five of six home teams (Colts, Saints, Cardinals, Steelers twice) won plus went 4-2 ATS, but notice that since 1992, the home team has won just 21 of 38 NFL title games straight up, and the visiting team is 20-18 against the spread. Going 23-15 straight up is a slight edge for the home teams, though far from dominant than many might expect to find in the second-biggest game of the season.

Within those statistics remember that there have been road underdogs that not only got the money, but won the game and advanced to the Super Bowl. Four years ago both road teams covered. The Patriots topped San Diego, 21-12, but failed to cover, while the +7 underdog road Giants won at Green Bay, 23-20. Six years ago Pittsburgh was a road dog at Denver, but clobbered the Broncos 34-17.

In 1995, San Diego was a 9½-point dog at Pittsburgh, but pulled the upset 17-13. In 1999 Atlanta was an 11-point dog at 16-1 Minnesota, yet won 30-27 in overtime, while Tennessee flattened big home favorite Jacksonville, 33-14, in 2000. Nine years ago the Patriots were a double-digit dog at Pittsburgh but won 24-17, and seven seasons ago the upstart Panthers rained on the Eagles’ parade in a 14-3 NFC Championship game upset in a somewhat frustrated city of brotherly love.

Those were just the big underdogs that triumphed. Smaller dogs have won in the conference championship games, as well. When Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl, they won 27-10 at Philadelphia as a 4-point road dog. In fact, coming into this weekend, the dogs are 14-8 against the spread the last 11 years in the NFL title games. The NFC has seen the dog go 9-3 ATS the last 12 years, including the last two seasons when the Packers covered at New Orleans and the Cardinals were a home do to the Eagles. Philadelphia’s trouncing of the Falcons in 2005, 27-10, ended a six-year run by underdogs covering in the NFC championship tilt. Certainly you can’t discount home field advantage, something the Patriots used in consecutive years to beat up the indoor Colts, 24-14 and 20-3 in the Foxboro cold, with the Colts turning the trick at home in 2007. However, there is generally greater balance between teams simply because at this point in the season, the remaining four teams are very strong and often evenly matched. In mid-January, you rarely find a team that has glaring weaknesses, for example, ranking at the bottom of the NFL in some offensive or defensive category.

It’s difficult for teams with major weaknesses to make the playoffs in the first place, and if they do make it, opposing coaches will attack those weak spots to their own advantage. The cream rises, which is what competition is all about. You also know that teams will be playing at a high level of intensity, as there is so much at stake — the winners go to the Super Bowl, the losers go home and sulk about what might have been. After such a long season, teams that have come this close to the Holy Grail are going to give everything they have for four full quarters.

Slicing the history another way, we find that the favorites are 24-12 straight up in NFL championship games and 19-17 against the spread the last 18 years. The total is 22-14 “over” during that time (2-0 over last January). Oddly, there have been more blowouts by the underdog than the favorite. The NY Giants rolled 41-0 in 2001 over Minnesota as a 2-point home dog. In January of 2000, Tennessee ripped the Jaguars 33-14 as a 7-point road dog. Throw in a 16-3 Ravens win at Oakland, a 27-10 Tampa Bay victory at Philly in 2003, the Steelers rout at Denver and the Giants’ win at Green Bay last season and the road dogs have packed quite a playoff bite.

Several big favorites have struggled, as well. The Rams were a 13-point favorite over Tampa Bay in 2000, yet needed a late TD to survive, 11-6, eight years ago the 10-point favorite Rams came from behind to squeeze by Philly, 29-24, and in 2008 the Chargers were a +14 dog but stayed all the way in a cover at New England. Still, before you jump on the live dogs, remember that the favorites had a nice run of their own from 1993-97 going 8-2 against the spread in the NFL title games. This is why looking at trends and angles must be approached with great caution. The current trend: the favorites are on a 6-2 ATS run in Conference Championship games.

On Sunday, January 22nd Its Championship Sunday. At 3:00 eastern it all kicks off with familiar faces with the Baltimore Ravens traveling up to New England in a Playoff rematch from 2010. In that game the Ravens garnered their first ever road win in New England catching a Patriots team off guard racing out to a 21-0 lead en route to a 33-10 win in a game where Ray Rice took the first play from scrimmage for an 80+ Yard touchdown. This Years Ravens team finally surged past the Pittsburgh Steelers and won the AFC North capturing the #2 seed and getting a home game instead of the usual wild card route where you have to win 3 road games to get to the Super Bowl. The Ravens were able to win the Divisional round game over a tough Houston team that may have won if they had starting Qb Matt Schaub available. The Ravens took advantage of some uneven play by Texans rookie Qb TJ Yates and were able to win on points off turnovers early on the game. The Patriots were easy winners over a Broncos team that was over matched on both sides of the ball. New England did a much better job on the Denver running game and forced Tebow to play from behind the whole day. On offense, much like the first game Tom Brady and the vaunted Patriots offense had too many weapons for the Broncos to account for. In this game the Patriots were installed a 7 point favorite and were immediately bet up to 7.5. The Patriots have a statistical edge of over 100 yards on offense, while the Ravens have a 100+ yard overall statistical edge on defense.. Both teams have performed well vs winning teams as the Patriots are 4-2 and the Ravens are 7-0. The records are very similar too as the Patriots are 14-3 while the Ravens check in at 13-4. The Ravens are 12-0 this season when scoring 20 or more points as that seems to be their magic number.This game could be another of the many that come down to turnovers. Both teams will face a tougher opponent than they did the previous week, Particularly the Patriots as Baltimore has more talent than Denver. Look for a spirited effort from both teams in what should be a very entertaining AFC Championship game.

The NFC Championship game will kick at 6:30 eastern. This year we have a Regular season rematch between to teams that met just over 2 months ago. The Giants travel cross country to take on a San Francisco team that came out of nowhere to win the NFC West after Hiring Harbaugh. The First game was a win for the Niners 27-20 in a game that was statistically won by the Giants. New York had a slight advantage rushing the ball 93-77 and also had more passing yards 302 to 228. The difference was the Niners played better on both sides of the ball in the red zone and the Giants were hurt by 2 costly turnovers. The Niners have won 5 of the last 6 in the series here at home. The Giants have the poise advantage as they are battle tested and come off their most impressive win of the season in a Big blowout win over the Defending Super Bowl Champion Packers. The Giants kept Green Bay off balance all day and were able to stymie the best overall offense in the league by getting constant pressure on Rogers without having to blitz and compromise pass coverage. The Packers weren’t able to mount much of a run game and were playing from behind the whole day while the rejuvenated Giants defense made them look average all day. The Giants on offense have a huge weapons with 2 stud receives in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nix, as well as some solid tight end play. They also do a good job of rotating Running backs Jacobs and Bradshaw, keeping them both fresh throughout the game. San Francisco is coming off an Instant Classic in a wild Home win over The New Orleans Saints in a game where they raced out to a 17-0 lead with the aid of several turnovers by a Saints team that did well to come back and take a lead in that game, as Dome teams on the road down 14-0 or more had never come back to win. The Niners were able to get a late touchdown with just seconds remaining on third down, electing to throw the ball into the end zone instead of squaring the ball for a game tying field goal. In this game the Niners will look to control the ball with star running back Frank Gore and keep the Giants off balance, to set up their aerial attack and utilize their electric duo of receivers led by Michael Crabtree.The Niners also have a stud at tight end in Vernon Davis who is coming off the best game of his career against the Saints and has emerged as quite the long ball threat for much maligned Qb Alex Smith. In his career with the 49ers Smith has taken his time to progress, and while he will never be mentioned in the same breath as elite Qb/s Like Counter part Eli Manning, he has cut down on his turnovers and has made many big plays while taking advantage of all his weapons. In the end this should also be a very competitive games where Turnover and execution will play a large part of determining this game. While many would have rather have seen the Opening night rematch between the Packers and Saints we will appreciate what both of these two teams have done this year. The Giants in beating the Packers were responsible for the knocking off the first 15 win team in their first playoff game in the history of the league and The 49 ers Resurgence from a terrible season last year. I will have a more in depth analysis on both of these games later in the week as we run simulators on both games then apply our database of Historical systems and Angles to the equation. RV

In Closing I hope you enjoy both Big games here on Championship Sunday. Check back later in the week as I Update both these games and look to improve on an 8-1 record thus far on sides and totals in the 2012 playoff season using time backed, cutting edge Power systems and Angles not seen anywhere else. You can also listen in to my weekly sports talk radio segment on Mondays at 7:05 eastern on 88.9 wsia.fm as I always have a Solid free Pick at the end of the segment. May all your wagers be winning wagers. Rob Vinciletti

Teams in playoff races like the Jets, Steelers, Cowboys and Ravens are all in the Top 16 in total defense. Five of the ten teams at the bottom of the list (Bucs, Colts, Rams, Panthers, Bills) have long been out of the playoff hunt and one (Raiders) is terrible defensive but only fighting for a division title because the division is so awful. Like Seattle last year, if the Raiders make the postseason, they won’t be going anywhere with this defense.

Will Green Bay play its starters down the stretch? On defense they should, to improve a unit that has been suspect, in the bottom 10. Another reason to play starters down the stretch is to keep them sharp for the postseason. The Colts sat their starters late in 2006 to have them rested for the playoffs. There were many people that split on the answer, but I think we’d all agree what the correct answer is: Play ‘em! Or at least, rest any injured players, but don’t bench the majority of starters the last two weeks of the regular season, even if everything is sewed up.

That was the position the Colts found themselves in after that 13-0 start. They had clinched everything: The division title, the bye week, home field for the postseason, the No. 1 spot. However, anyone who watched the loss to the Steelers saw an Indy team that was rusty for most of the game. Very rusty.
The Colts were out of sync most of the way in their 21-18 loss to the Steelers. Overall, having a bye week gives a team enough time, two weeks, to rest and prepare. It takes time and practice to get a team in sync because there are so many players that need to work together in unison: Blocking patterns, running backs hitting the proper holes, lineman pulling, receivers running patterns, quarterbacks getting the football to them on timing routes, etc.
That same season in the final regular season game for the Denver Broncos, they were 12-point dog at San Diego in a meaningless game. They had everything sewed up and needed only to stay healthy. Instead, Mike Shanahan had several starters play significant first half minutes. They also played inspired football, dominating the Chargers in an impressive performance.

I think back to the regular season finale in 2004 when the Patriots hosted the terrible 49ers at home in a meaningless game, yet Bill Belichick played the starters for three quarters. The reason was a little different, as the Patriots played a sluggish first half, tied 3-3, as a big favorite. Belichick didn’t like the performance and sent the starters back out for the second half, injuries be damned! They followed the next few weeks with dominating performances on the way to winning another Super Bowl title.

Stuffing the run is a huge key to building a championship defense. Yes, the fancy offensive teams get most of the attention and Sports Center highlights, but don’t be surprised if the better defensive teams find their way into the postseason and advance.

The season is also littered with flops. The Vikings, Chargers, Bucs and Colts were expected to be better and but were out of it at the halfway point of the season. The Rams had high hopes but have disappointed, and even the mighty Patriots are a huge postseason question mark with the 32nd ranked defense. The same Pats’ team that was 14-2 a year ago.

The Chargers have been big flops after a 4-1 start, failing to cover in 6 straight, all losses. The Colts, too, have been money-burners, becoming the first team since 2007 to be a 20-point underdog last week. They covered, despite trailing 31-3.

Oddsmakers make adjustments on teams all during the season, such as two years ago when the Saints and Colts started red hot. After starting 6-0 SU/ATS, the Saints went 2-8 ATS to end the regular season, often as a double digit favorite. That’s what can happen to public teams, either popular teams or ones with a flashy offense like the 2009 Saints and 2007 Patriots.
This season all eyes are on Green Bay to not only repeat as champs but to run the table. That’s exciting, but it also overshadows the fact that the NFL is very much competitively balanced and parity driven.

Normally we are at the time of the pro football campaign where some teams have mentally and physically packed in the season. It’s been a lost season or one with higher expectations and players, especially ones on poorly coached teams, can just go through the motions. That can show up on the scoreboard and at the wagering window.

The 49ers were in that group a year ago at this time, with the heat on Mike Singletary in what was supposed to be a better season. Fast forward one year and San Francisco is completely different, winning the division under new coach Jim Harbaugh, starting 10-2 straight up and 10-1-1 against the number. There will be not late season letdown with this motivated group as it must be fun for all of them to come to work.

That’s not the case with all teams, however. The Rams have been a disaster, on a recent 2-10 ATS run. It’s hard to believe that back in August this team went from 45-to-1 to win the Super Bowl to 40-to-1. Somebody put some dough on them to win it all! Now that ticket might as well be used for a Christmas fire to keep warm by.

It’s also hard to believe they were favorite in back to back games recently, yet lost to Seattle (24-7) and Arizona (23-20), both at home. You have to wonder when Jacksonville might pack it in after firing their head coach, Jack Del Rio. There was a lot of emotion on Monday night football for their new head coach, but the Jags got steamrolled by the Chargers, 38-14. Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker is the interim coach and he has added an uptempo offense with rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, not a bad idea.

What really stood out, though, was injuries to the Jaguars’ cornerback corps were exploited by veteran quarterback Philip Rivers, who threw three touchdown passes. Cornerbacks Rashean Mathis, Derek Cox and William Middleton are on injured reserve with knee injuries. So the Jaguars started Ashton Youboty and undrafted rookie Kevin Rutland. Rivers torched Rutland once and twice victimized Youboty, who was then pulled for Morgan Trent, who signed with the team last week!

Teams that need to be watched closely as on the bubble for packing it in might be the Browns, Bills, Chiefs, Cardinals, Redskins and Bucs. Two years ago the Jaguars melted down in a 0-4 SU/ATS finish, and last season Carolina finished 1-5 SU/ATS. Three years ago the Raiders (2-3 SU/ATS run), Rams (0-9 SU, 3-6 ATS) and Jaguars (1-5 SU/ATS) finished up poorly, teams that clearly weren’t giving 100%. The Rams lost their last nine games under Jim Haslett, their second coach of the 2008 season, getting outscored 216-73.

2007 was unique for powerhouses, with the Packers and Cowboys starting 10-1 and the Patriots going 16-0. You may recall the 4-7 Ravens dominating the 11-0 Pats on Monday night as a +19 dog, playing with fire before a last second 27-24 defeat. The 2007 Eagles failed to make the playoffs or have a winning record, but as a +24 dog they gave the unbeaten Pats all they could handle. New England needed a late TD to survive 31-28. “It was the most complete game we played all year,” Eagles LB Omar Gaither said. Offensive lineman Shawn Andrews added, “People built them up to be Goliath. At the same time, a lot of people made us out to be a 24-point spread, and we know they’re not that much better than us.”

Pro players have pride and know the score. Taking out their frustrations on a powerhouse team is not uncommon. The good teams aren’t that much better from year to year than bad ones. Parity and the salary cap have leveled the playing field and schedules are longer, all of which makes it that much harder to dominate.

The 1962 Green Bay Packers enjoyed a 10-0 start on the way to a 13-1 season, ending in a 16-7 win in the championship game over the Giants as one of Vince Lombardi’s best teams. They came close to running the table, except for a surprising Thanksgiving Day loss to Detroit, 26-14 (trailing 26-0 to the fired up Lions). Even NFL David’s can be gunning for Goliath this time of the season – if they haven’t already packed it in.

The Bears play their home games in cold, windy Chicago and appear built to win low scoring games outdoors now that it is getting colder. This is nothing new. One their way to winning the NFC in 2006, Smith had an abundance of defensive talent, and limited offensive options along with a young quarterback. It was no surprise that Smith preferred to win games with his defense and play conservative offensively with a rookie QB.

The Bears started 8-2 under the total that season. Smith ran the same formula the previous year ago as Chicago went 10-6 under the total, meaning they started 18-8 under when he become Bears coach! Last season that formula worked as the Bears got to the NFC Championship game again.

Handicapping totals is about line value, but it’s also about the styles a football team plays. Another factor to keep in mind as we come down the stretch of the NFL season is weather. Northern cities like Chicago, New York, Boston, Philly and Pittsburgh are getting cold this time of year. It’s essential to check weather conditions on game day. Cold weather is tougher on offenses, as is chilling winds and snow which is also something that will become more common.

You might classify the Bengals and Browns in the Chicago Bears category, too: Plodding offenses, tough defense (at least the Bengals can play D). The Browns were tough defensively last season under defensive coordinator Rex Ryan, but he bolted for Dallas. The Patriots are different in style, with an uptempo attack and a young defense that has given up a lot of yards and points, a team that has been great over the total.

Injuries, too, can change a team significantly. One season the NY Jets had an incredibly anemic offense rotating four QBs in 2005. The Jets started 4-2 under the total on the road where the offense was averaging just 7 points per game! When Ben Roethlisberger was out for the Steelers to start last season, they began 3-1 under the total with a super-conservative offense.
That was actually nothing new. When Big Ben had that motor cycle accident, Pittsburgh started 5-0 under the total on the road with a tough defense and a conservative offense without Big Ben. Stats, styles, coaching and weather all contribute to overs and unders.

That shows the important of the position, but what has really cropped up all season is the important of reliable depth at the position. The Colts are the frontrunner for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes because of the disastrous results of their quarterback depth. QB Peyton Manning (neck) hasn’t throw a pass, veteran QB Kerry Collins (2 TDs, 1 INTs) is battling a concussion, so QB Curtis Painter is running what is left of the offense, with more interceptions than touchdowns. During a game against Jacksonville the Colts offense was so inept that Painter threw 2 picks in one series! Indy’s swapped bad luck for Andrew Luck.

The Arizona Cardinals had a woeful offense last season, so they did what they had to do: traded their top defensive back to the Eagles for QB Kevin Kolb. That missing piece has been missing in action much of the season, as Kolb has been benched with as many TDs as picks. They’ve decided to go back to QB Jon Skelton, who was part of an ineffective QB troika a year ago.

The results have been mixed, but mostly weak. Skelton threw a 5-yard TD pass to Early Doucet with 1:53 left and the Cardinals rallied for a 21-17 victory over the Eagles as a +14 dog last month. Skelton completed 21 of 40 for 315 yards, three TDs and two picks. But the Skelton experiment blew up in a 23-7 loss at San Francisco, throwing 3 picks as the offense turned it over 5 times. They then had a win at St. Louis, but Skelton threw 2 picks and no TDs.

QBs Tony Romo and Mike Vick have had rib injuries. Romo is back and healthy now, but Vick has not been, forcing the fading Eagles to go with Vince Young off the scrap heap. It’s hard to believe that just over a year ago the Eagles were loaded at the position with Donovan McNabb, Vick and Kolb. McNabb started the year at Minnesota but is now on the bench watching rookie QB Christian Ponder.

In addition, the QB has to be a team leader and even change the plays at the line of scrimmage when the situation dictates. Experience under pressure is key, as well, as you don’t see quarterbacks starting as rookies and doing very well. It usually takes several years. It took New Orleans QB Drew Brees several poor seasons of play before he busted out in 2004. Peyton Manning started 16 games as a rookie, which is unusual. You may not recall, but while Manning threw 26 TDs as a rookie, he also threw 28 interceptions! Learning to play quarterback well takes time.

Depth in football is an essential ingredient to success. Players get hurt all the time because the game is so violent and physical. Good coaches and general managers actually anticipate injuries, stockpiling depth. The most unusual situation is in Denver, where a new regime came in preferring Kyle Orton over former first round pick Tim Tebow. After a poor start, Tebow was thrown to the wolves – and started producing victories with his arm (an outstanding TD to interception ratio) and his feet, with Denver the top rushing team since he took over.

No team has had more of a QB carousel than Houston. QB Matt Schaub (15 TD, 6 INTs) is out for the year and his replacement, QB Matt Leinart (1 TDs, 0 INTs) made his first start, a 20-13 win at Jacksonville, but hurt his throwing shoulder. He is out for the season with a broken left collarbone. Rookie QB T.J. Yates is the new starter, and newly signed Kellen Clemens is the backup. Incredibly, this team is in first place and has a great shot to make the playoffs with a third string quarterback (if Yates can stay healthy, that is).

Miami and Oakland played each other over the weekend in a battle of backup QBs. Chad Henne was lost for the year in September and Oakland lost QB Jason Campbell, forcing them to sign Carson Palmer. The Raiders have responded, showcasing the importance of having a reliable backup signal caller when injuries crop up.

I hear this all the time, on television and on radio, even in 2011, which has been a passing season in the NFL. When examining key games, analysts often conclude one team failed to run the football enough times, and the opponent pulled won the game simply because they had more rushing attempts.
We heard this a lot after Super Bowl 36. In that game, the two-touchdown favorite Rams saw star running back Marshall Faulk get just two carries, while Patriots running back Antoine Smith carried 18 times in the 20-17 upset. The Pats had 25 rushing attempts, the Rams 22.

That’s one game where you can make a case Faulk should have touched the ball more, but let’s get back to the basic argument here: Is winning football, straight up and against the spread, as simple as running the ball more times?

The stats suggest this, but I can assure you this is one area where the data lie, or at least gets twisted around to simplify a very complicated subject.
I recently finished a statistical analysis on teams rushing the football during an entire NFL season. I broke it down into two categories: 1) Teams that rushed the ball 30 or more times and had more attempts than their opponents; 2) Teams that led by 10 or more points at the half and rushed 30 or more times.

On the surface, the results are a professional handicappers dream:

30 or more rushing attempts 10-point lead at the half, 30+
and out-rush the opponent: rushing attempts & out-rush opponent

158-30-1 straight up 66-4-1 straight up
142-40-7 against the spread 64-7 against the spread

I can hear many of you now: “A 64-7 against the spread record! Wow! I’m going to figure out what team should carry 30 times and bet them every game!”

If it was only that simple.

How can you predict what team is going to be up by 10 or more at the half? If you could do that, you’d be wiser to just make a first-half wager on those teams. And what team doesn’t end up with more yards rushing after leading by double-digits at the half? Coaches with a big halftime lead aren’t likely to throw the ball a lot in the third quarter – they want to milk the clock and practice ball control. And if a coach is down 20-3 at the half, do you think he’s going to say to his players, “The team that runs the ball more times is 158-30-1 last season, so let’s run the ball every play in the second half and we’ll probably win.” This is absurd.

The numbers are being used to support a betting angle after the fact. A successful professional handicapper is able to look forward and predict, not look backward and explain what happened. And there are so many facets to dissecting a football game that it’s foolish to state, “This team would have won if they ran the ball more.”

The point analysts are making – though very badly – is that ball control is a great weapon. If a team is able to run successfully for first down after first down, for example, why would they ever need to pass? Former Ohio State coach Woody Hayes loved the ground game and used to say, “When you pass the football, three things can happen, and two of them are bad.”

Generally speaking, teams that out-rush their opponent are ahead much of the game, and as a result have a greater tendency to end up winning that game (and even covering). But rushing the football a lot is not some magic formula for winning. So be careful when you read about betting angles and trends.

Because if winning games were as simple as out-rushing the opponent, Wade Phillips would have run the football every play – and probably still have a job!