2011 NFL Power Rankings – Week 12

Family and feelings are the enemy of good gambling and good writing about gambling. So I apologize for the soggy lead in this week, but I am trapped in Northern New York with my kin and only have a quick moment here in between dodging passive-aggressive barbs from my in-laws and skirting out to refill my cocktail from my depleting liquor supply to pass on this week’s NFL Power Rankings. Here is my Week 12 version of Doc’s Sports Power Rankings: 1. Green Bay Packers (10-0) – This is Green Bay’s... 

NFL Handicapping: Quarterbacks & Defense

There’s really no truer adage in pro football than the importance of quarterbacks and defense. Betting lines take these factors into account, and you can understand why. The offense revolves completely around the play of the quarterback, the only player on offense who touches the ball every play. QBs need touch, and accurate, split-second decision making all the time to keep the offense moving. They also require leadership skills, clutch ability on third and fourth downs, and even are asked to... 

NFL Parity and 20 Point Blowouts

For years, pro football has been the sports leader when it comes to parity. Pete Rozelle was credited with, “On any given Sunday any team can beat another.” The last few years it seems as though parity has disappeared from the NFL. The Packers this season are dominating, the 2008 Saints and Colts started a combined 16-0 SU/11-5 ATS and the 2007 Patriots had a remarkable 16-0 regular season. A close look, however, shows that parity is alive and well. The Packers may have started 8-0,... 

NFL Mid-Season Report Card 2011

We’re approaching Week 10 in the NFL, it’s still ‘mid-season’ for a bunch of teams that have played just eight regular games so far, which is why I’m now offering up my annual NFL mid-season report card on every team in the league! From the good (Green Bay, San Francisco), to the bad (Minnesota, Cleveland, Seattle, Arizona) – and the downright ugly (Indianapolis, St. Louis and Miami), I’m covering all of the bases in an attempt to enlighten NFL fans and betting enthusiasts everywhere... 

Home Field Advantage & Road Travel in the NFL

It’s probably not discussed as much as home court in basketball and even college football, but teams in the NFL often have significant edges at home and liabilities on the road. A key part of sports is emotion. Even though NFL players are professional athletes getting paid to do a job to the best of their abilities, playing well before the home fans really is more important than playing as well on the road. The hometown fans are the ones who, in essence, are paying their salaries. No player wants... 

NFL Betting: Home vs. Road Disparity

How about those Baltimore Ravens? In back to back game they looked like world beaters, shutting down the Jets (34-17) and the Texans (29-14), covering both with ease. That put them at 3-0 Su/ATS at home this season, including that opening day shellacking of the Steelers, 35-7. Then again, a different Baltimore team can show up on the road, as we saw on Monday night in a 12-7 loss at Jacksonville…as a 10-point road favorite! That’s common with some pro and college football teams as the home/road... 

Correlating Factors: Run Defense & ATS Success

Good handicappers know how to make lines based on power ratings, home field and public perception. Other numbers, however, that are easier to identify mustn’t be overlooked, either, when analyzing games and point spreads each week. Here’s one anyone can utilize: Run defense. This is one of the basics when it comes to winning football. And speaking of basics, if you can’t stop the run, the opponent doesn’t need to pass. This is something that was evident when Nebraska and Oklahoma... 

Winning Football: “D” Comes Before “O”

by Jim Feist So what do you prefer: offense or defense? Most casual bettors examining NFL picks like offense, which is why Monday night football games often take more action on the over. There have been some terrific offensive football teams that last few years, such as USC and Texas in 2005, and pro passing attacks like the Rams, Colts, Dick Vermeil’s Chiefs, the 2007 Patriots and this year’s Saints, Chargers, Packers, Pats and even the surprising Bills. However, name the last few Super... 

NFL Week 7 Player Props and Betting Predictions

In my Week 6 player props story, there weren’t too many immediate results for us to look back on – in other words I tackled a few season-ending totals for NFL players, such as 50-yard field goals for Oakland’s Sebastian Janikowski (he was two-yards shy of adding one in Week 6), sacks for Minnesota’s Jared Allen (he added No. 9.5 against the Bears on Sunday) or total starts for Denver’s Tim Tebow (he makes No. 1 this week at putrid Miami). The only Week 6 specific prop I addressed was on... 

The Must-Win Game Myth

The pressure’s on every Saturday and Sunday! With football season in full swing, you’ll hear media prognosticators proclaim with regularity, “This team doesn’t want to start 0-4. Therefore, this is a must-win game that they have to win!” All right, so be it. That’s as superficial a statement as one can find, which is often the case with newspaper, radio and TV “experts.” But is it true? Of course not. Teams want to win every game, of course, but we... 

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