College Football Analysis – Week 2

Every week world champion handicapper Michael Blake will offer his college football analysis on 10-20 games.  This is a great opportunity for everyone to look at specific games that he has targeted for you.  These games can be considered ‘free picks’ if you like.  All you have to do is look at spread at the time analysis is released and projected score of the game to draw your conclusion of the game.  Sometimes, these plays eventually make the grade as star-rated plays that go to his personal clients by the time Saturday rolls around.  DON’T MISS CAROLINA SPORTS COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE MONTH GOING SATURDAY!  IT WILL BE AVAILABLE AT 8:00 PM EST ON FRIDAY 9/9!

College Football Week 2 – Friday 9/9 & Saturday 9/10

Missouri at Arizona St (-7.5)

Missouri’s high octane offense wasn’t so high octane last week as they only put up 291-yards and 4.6-yppl.  The weather did have something to do with that but it still was a disappointing performance.  Missouri does well in road openers as they have won their last 5.  Arizona St is a team that we love this year and they have high expectations.   ASU buried Cal-Irvine last week (7.4-4.4 yppl) so they have some confidence and will be motivated in this one.  With 15 returning starters back ASU has a BCS bowl berth on their mind.  This will be a good test against a well-coached Missouri team.  Missouri still has talent on both sides of the ball but we like the situation in this one that favors ASU.  ASU is 35-20 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.  The computer likes Arizona St as much as we do as they are calling for a 10-point win.  With the emotional edge on Arizona States side we will call for a little bit bigger of a win.  Arizona St 34-20.

Florida International at Louisville (-4)

FIU HC Mario Cristibal will be a hot commodity at the end of the season if he continues to win at FIU.  He has taken an absolutely awful program and turned it into one of the top 3 teams in the Sun Belt Conference.   FIU blew out North Texas last week in their opener and now go on the road to play an improving Louisville team.   Louisville has the talent edge in this game and their defense is much improved with 7 starters back.  The offense will need some time to adjust, as they struggled last week vs FCS Murray St.  Junior QB Will Stein struggled last week with completing only 53% of his passes and a 7.1-yppa.  Look for this game to be a defensive struggle.  Our ratings have Louisville -4.5 and computer calls for a 5-point Louisville win.  With systems and situations favoring both teams this looks like a close game.  Louisville 20-17

Oregon St at Wisconsin (-22)

This is a classic opening line that moved when everyone saw the score of the games that Wisconsin and Oregon ST played in last week.    The public jumped all over Wisconsin as the line opened up at -17 and is now -22.  Oregon St lost to FCS Sacramento St.  The Beavers secondary got torched at 8.2-yppa last week.  They did outgain Sacramento State 6.3-5.4 yppl.  Turnovers cost the Beavers in this one.  Wisconsin looked unstoppable last week against UNLV.  UNLV is one of the worst teams in Division 1-A football.  So that win really doesn’t tell us too much.  With the public jumping on Wisconsin because what happened last week it looks like we have some good line value.  Our ratings had Wisconsin -14.5 before last week’s games and with the performances by both teams the ratings adjust to -17.5.  Computer calls for a 20-point win.  Oregon has some key injuries on offense  and they are questionable on their return.  Wisconsin may not take Oregon seriously in this game at home knowing the Beavers just lost to a FCS team.  Wisconsin 40-21.

Iowa (-7) at Iowa St

Iowa is down this year in terms of talent but they should have enough to beat rival Iowa St on the road this week.  Iowa played in rain shortened game last week and even though they blew out Tennessee Tech 34-7 last week outgaining Tech 6.7-4.1 yppl.  Iowa St did not look good against FCS Northern Iowa as they won 20-19 and were OUTGAINED 5.2-4.2 yppl.   Iowa St is a team that is still a couple of years away from competing in the Big 12 and this is their BOWL GAME each year.  Iowa St new QB Jr Steele Jantz did not perform well as he was 18-40 187 yards passing with 3 int’s.  This is not a great Iowa team like they have had in the past but enough to get the win here.  Our ratings have Iowa -10 and computer calls for a 10-point win.  We will do the same.  Iowa 23-13.

San Diego St (-9.5) at Army

San Diego could shock some teams in the Mountain West this year with 8 returning starters including QB Ryan Lindley.  SDSU took care of FCS Cal Poly last week 49-21 and got their 2^nd string some good playing time.  SDSU is only 3-25 in non-conference away games since joining he MWC .  New HC Rocky Long has talent on this team and looks to build on a 9-4 record form 2010.  Army got thrashed last week by Northern Illinois and only has 11 starters returning from last year’s 7-6 team.   ARMY is 0-7 ATS in home games against Mountain West conference opponents since 1992.  SDSU has too much talent on offense in this one as we look for Army’s defensive struggles to continue.  SDSU is a sleeper team in the MWC.   ARMY is 1-8 ATS when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons and our computer has them giving up 38 in this one.  San Diego St gets cover in this one 38-23.

Mississippi St (-6.5) at Auburn

Public jumped off Auburns bandwagon after last week’s poor performance as Auburn dropped out of the top 25 and they didn’t lose.   Auburn has the fewest returning starters in the SEC and it showed last week against a below average Utah St team from the WAC.  Mississippi St didn’t look ahead last week against Memphis as they buried them 59-14 and outgained Memphis 9.3-3.9 yppl.  Coach Mullin is an underrated coach and will have MSU ready in this one.   Mississippi St has revenge on their mind after losing last year 17-14 at home.  This is a talented MSU team and we don’t like the make-up of Auburn early in the season.   Mississippi St 37-23.

Rutgers at North Carolina (-10)

Turmoil surrounds North Carolina with everything that happened last year with suspensions and then this year firing HC Bitch Davis.  It has been nothing but controversy in Tar Heel land.   There is still a lot of talent here as they return 13 starters including 7 on defense.  Both teams had tune-up games last week vs FCS teams and there were no hiccups.   Rutgers has a young offensive lin and they go up against an extremely talented front 7 of North Carolina’s.  Brynn Renner made a great debut for UNC as he was 22-23 passing 277 yds and 12.0-yppa.  Rutgers is an improved team with 9 starters back on offense but the team was below avg last year avg 20.8 ppg and 4.6-yppl.  Look for North Carolina to control this game at the line of scrimmage and put pressure on Rutgers QB Chas Dodd.  Our computer likes the talent edge in this one by UNC as it is calling for a 16-point win.  We agree.  UNC 30-14.

UTEP at SMU (-21)

SMU ran into a buzz saw last week in Texas A&M.  The Mustangs are still very talented and an improved team.  They come home and will look to take some frustrations out on a below-average UTEP team that only returns 2 players on the offensive side of the ball.  UTEP has covered 4 in a row in the series so SMU will take them very seriously on top of just getting blown out.   Too much talent on offense for June Jones SMU team to not put some points on the board in this one.  Question is, is the line to big?  We think it is.  Our ratings have SMU -17.5 and that is right where the line was when it opened.   We will ride the ATS streak by UTEP in the series.  SMU 37-20.

Cincinnati at Tennessee (-6.5)

This is an intriguing match-up between two teams trying to gain respect in 2011 by their respective conferences.   It was just 2 years ago where Cinci went 33-7 from 2007-09 under Brian Kelly before he took the head job at Notre Dame.  Last year was an adjustment year for Cinci as they went 4-8.  Many of Brian Kelly’s recruits are now juniors and seniors and they have a lot of talent this year.  10 starters return on the defensive side of the ball from a team that allowed 28.0 ppg and 5.3 yppl.  They were an average defense.  We rate them above average this year with these 10 starters back and a majority being juniors and seniors.   Tennessee is moving in the right direction in the SEC under Derek Dooley.  Dooley brings stability to the coaching position and has been able to recruit.  This team is really 1 year away from competing in the SEC East as they start a ton of sophomores and juniors.  Both teams took care of business last week against FCS teams.  Cinci has the small edge of offense and defense while Tennessee has the talent and home field edges.  Our ratings have Tennessee -4.5 and the line has dropped from an opening line of Tennessee -7.5.  Computer calls for a 3-point Tennessee win.   Cinci falls into three situation systems of ours that are 9-1, 12-2, and 11-0.  With these situational edges favoring Cinci we will call for the upset.  Cincinnati 27-24.

Virginia Tech (-17.5) at East Carolina

Line opened at Va Tech -19 and it quickly went to 20.5 and now it is back down to 17.5.  Looks like some of the major players in Vegas and offshore are trying to get a middle.   Virginia Tech buried a very talented Appalachian St program last week while ECU blew a 17-point lead against a strong South Carolina team.  ECU has a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball but Va Tech as the speed and power to offset their talent.  Virginia Tech is a team that we think could end up 11-1 or 12-0 (read our ACC Preview).  Logan Thomas is the real deal and will get his first start on the road.  He goes up against one of the worst defenses in the country and should be able to put up some big numbers.  Va Tech will be able to run all over ECU WITH David Wilson and Josh Olesby.  Wilson had 162 yards rushing and 10.2-ypr last week.  ECU defense against the run is not much better than Appalachian St.  Last week ECU gave up 220 yards on the ground and 5.5-ypr to South Carolina.  This will set up the play-action pass for Thomas and also will enable his running game to get going.  Va Tech is extremely talented so don’t let the big road number scare you.  ECU falls into a negative 2-29 statistical indicator system that caught our attention.  Va Tech falls into 29-4 system ours that allows us to play on certain road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points.  Our ratings have Virginia Tech -20.5 and computer calls for a 23 point win.  We like it a little bit more.  Virginia Tech 48-23.

Hawaii at Washington (-5.5)

Hawaii took care of business at home last week beating Colorado (who looks like to be a pathetic football).  Hawaii is young on the offensive line making a road start in a hostile environment.  The Huskies lose Jake Locker to the NFL but return 7 starters on offense including talented running back Jr Chris Polk.  Look for the Huskies to run the ball against a below-average Hawaii defensive front.  HC Steve Sarkisian was conservative with his new QB last week, Soph Keith Price, as he was 17-25 but only 102 yds and 4.2-yppa but with a 3:0 ratio.  Washingon will be better defensively this year with 8 returning starters and this is a game their secondary needs to step up.  Our ratings have Washington -4 and computer calls for a 5-point win.  We wilke the emotion in this game from the Huskies and Sarkisian is a solid coach.  Washington 33-23

TCU (-1.5) at Air Force

We haven’t been used to seeing TCU’s defense get torched like they did last week at Baylor and maybe this just isn’t as good of a TCU team as they have been in the past.  TCU allowed 8.7-yppl and 50 points last week!  The offense looked good but it was against a poor Baylor defense.  TCU steps up in class this week as they a strong Air Force squad on the road.  This is one of HC Troy Calhoun’s best teams at Air Force, if not THE BEST.  He returns 14 starts including 8 on the defensive side of the ball.  The defense last year allowed only 21.1-ppg and 5.0 yppl.  The secondary was very good allowing only 54.8% and 5.9-yppa.  Look for those numbers to improve this year.  Air Force will be as motivated as they come in this one at home, and are catching TCU a little reeling after a horrible performance last week.  Air Force 24-20

Temple (-15) at Akron

Temple new HC Steve Addazio had as great debut last week as they destroyed FCS Villanova 42-7.  Addazio was the OC at Florida last year and brings his philosophy to temple.  Temple has some talented running backs in Bernard Pierce and Matt Brown.  Temple will be a run first team with these two guys and will carry the offense.  Akron is a horrible football team that has no offense what so ever.  Temple should be able to shut Akron down this week with their strong defense.  Temple is a rising program and we look for another big year from the Owls.  Our rating s have Temple -16.5 in this game and computer calls for a 17-point win.  Look for Temple to control the game from the beginning and dominate the time of possession.  The under looks good in this game as well.  Temple 27-10.

UAB at Florida (-23)

UAB comes into the season a much improved team with 16 returning starters back.  This is HC Neil Callway’s best team he has had in 5 years.  The record doesn’t prove it at 15-33 in his tenure but they have been competitive as they are 21-24 ATS during that time.  This is their opening game while Florida buried a horrible Florida Atlantic team.  UAB will compete much better than FAU and look for a competitive game.  Our ratings have Florida -24.5 and computer is calling for a blowout win by 27 but we think UAB will compete in this one and have a week to gameplan and watch film on Florida while Callway may throw some new wrinkles in to catch Florida off-guard.  Florida 34-17.

Utah at USC (-9)

Welcome to the Pac-12 Utah.  Utah has dominated the Mountain West for years and now they take their talents to a BCS conference.  Utah retuns 7 starters on offense but last week was only able to gain 292 yds and 4.8-yppl against FCS Montana.  USC moved the ball well last week but was just not able to finish inside the red zone.  We would not have put it past Lane Kiffin to hold stuff back on the offensive side of the ball and wait to unleash the offense against Utah. The running game gets a big boost as 2010 leading rusher Marc Tyler returns from suspension. USC will be extremely motivated in this one as they are at home and don’t want Utah to think they can come into the Pac-12 and perform well.  Utah HC Kyle Wihittingham is a great coach but looking at pure talent, they are outmatched in this one.  USC comes to play.  Our ratings have USC -10.  USC has the emotional, home field and talent edges in this game.  USC is a public team nut looks like the public is on Utah is this one after last week’s ‘poor’ performance.  USC 34-17.

Notre Dame (-3.5) at Michigan

Notre Dame is the more talented team and they should be favored in this game but there is something missing in South Bend and that is a will to win.  Seems like the pressure gets to ND in big games as there are high expectations every year.  Now with Brian Kelly in his 2^nd year as HC we were hearing talk of potential BCS Title Game.  When Notre Dame learns how to win the big one and consistently then the public can start talking BCS Championship.  Look at the stats last week by ND as they buried South Florida in every statistical category except turnovers.  DN outgained USC 6.5-3.5 yppl but three turnovers inside the 5 line killed them.  Michigan is under new HC Brady Hoke and that was a tremendous hire by the university.  It will take some time for Michigan to get used to Hoke’s offensive and defensive schemes.  Michigan benefitted from a fumble and interception return for td’s before the game was stopped early because of weather.  Kelly turns to Tommy Rees this week and that is the right move.  Rees is a better passer than Dayne Christ and will move the ball against a poor Michigan defense.  Our ratings have ND -3 and computer calls for a 4 point ND win.  Until ND can win the big one, we will go against them.  Notre Dame 30-28.

Michael Blake’s Carolina Sports was documented the #1 ranked college football service in the country last year.  It should be to no surprise because he has dominated college football for 16 years.  Don’t miss week 1 college football as all of his selections will be posted Friday evening at 8:00 pm est.