College Football Picks 10/03/09

From the #1 CFB Handicapper This Year

JR O’Donnell -#1 In the Nation Ncaaf • Football Overall Plays (+1855) 25-6 L31 81% + • NCAA-F Top Plays (+790) 9-1 L10 90%. Saturday’s Small School GAME OF THE YEAR WINNER HURRY THE LINE WILL MOVE!!! + ** LATE ** STEAM NCAAF SIDE MOVE WINNER This SMALL SCHOOL GAME O YEAR Ncaaf Top & “Steam Play” Is Fully Guaranteed!!!

Steve Janus – #1 College Football Handicapper from 2008! I am locked in for Saturday with FOUR premium plays including another 4* Heavy Hitter PLUS this week’s ***5* BLUE CHIP BET!*** Sunday’s plays are also posted, including a 5* Blue Chip Bet and a 4* Heavy Hitter!!!

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Play on  Syracuse Orange +6.5

Game Analysis: I used South Florida on Saturday as it was able to go into Tallahassee and take out Florida St. For the Bulls they were without quarterback Matt Grothe and that was actually one of the reasons that I backed them as teams that lose a leader tend to step up in their very next game to make up for that fallen teammate. That was definitely the case on Saturday and now we can actually use that against them. It was pretty clear that South Florida used a ton of energy against the Seminoles and now trying to get up once again in another road get will be extremely difficult if not close to impossible. Not only that, but this is a definite letdown situation even though it is the Big East opener for the Bulls. Syracuse is coming off a less than inspiring victory over FCS Maine on Saturday as it geared up for Big East Conference action. The victory made it two straight for the Orange who could very well be 3-1 right now if not for an overtime loss in their opener against Minnesota. Syracuse has never defeated South Florida as it is 0-4 and has been outscored by 26.8 ppg in those four losses while getting outgained by at least 245 total yards in each of those contests. While that normally would not be a good sign here we have to remember this is a totally different Syracuse team than what we have seen in those other four years. Those first four meetings came in the Greg Robinson era and we all know how that went as the Orange averaged 2.5 wins per season and they have already almost topped that average this season. The players believe in new coach Doug Marrone and it is evident with seeing the attitude on the field. One of the big stories this season has been about Orange quarterback Greg Paulus and how his transition would be from hoops to football. It has been pretty smooth thus far as he made one crucial mistake in that Minnesota game but other than that he has been pretty solid. Paulus has completed 68 percent of his passes (78 of 114) for 888 yards and six touchdowns along with a 144.2 passer rating, good for 41st in the nation. After throwing three interceptions in his first two games, he has just one pick in his last two games so he is becoming better familiarized with the offense and with the college game as a whole. The Orange are struggling to run the ball but they are making up for it on the defensive end as they are 13th in the nation in rushing defense, allowing 83 ypg and 2.7 ypc, both of which are better than what the Bulls are allowing (112.2 ypg and 3.4 ypc). On offense South Florida relies heavily on the rush and will do so again here so Syracuse needs to continue that strong defense. Syracuse falls into a very solid contrarian situation as well. Play against road teams that are averaging 6.4 or more yppl after outgaining their opponent by 100 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -2.7 ppg. Also, Syracuse is a solid 12-1 ATS in its last 13 home games following a home victory by 17 or more points. It is also 24-5 ATS in its last 29 home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. The Bulls meanwhile are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite. 3* Syracuse Orange

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