Steve Janus - 5* Missouri Valey Bookie Beatdown ***8-2 NCAAB RUN***

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Matt Fargo - Fargo’s **10** NBA ENFORCER (AWESOME 14-7 NBA RUN)

Matt is coming off a tough overtime loss with Portland but is still on an AWESOME 14-7 NBA run and his streak going back to last year remains RED HOT as he is a COMMANDING 48-28-1 (63.2%) L77! He is back with a HUGE REPORT Tuesday and it is a BEAUTY that results in an EASY COVER! His EPIC 102-59-4 (63.4%) 2012 Rampage rolls on! Do not even think about missing this!

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Utah Jazz +9

Pick Analysis:

The Jazz really put forth a disappointing effort against the short-handed Knicks last night. Utah has now lost three of their last four overall. The Jazz will be extremely motivated to win this game, and they are definitely talented enough to keep the final score under double-digits. A lot of people will be quick to jump on Indiana because the Jazz are playing their second game of a back-to-back road set, but I don’t think they used much energy at all last night.

The Pacers scored a season-low 81-points in a rare home loss to the Magic on Saturday. The Pacers have been inconsistent all season offensively. Utah doesn’t feature a great defense, but they do have a strong presence in the paint, which will force Indiana to shoot a lot of outside shots.

Utah is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record while Indiana is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. BET THE JAZZ!

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Both ranked in the bottom half of the league in points allowed with the Giants 25th and the Pats were second worst in yards allowed. On the other hand, both defenses have been strong down the stretch. The Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games, and the Under is 8-2 in the Giants last 10 playoff games. The Patriots are 12-6 over the total, including a 7-1 run over in the playoffs.

In an attempt to look forward towards Sunday’s big game, let’s take a look backward. Backward at defense, that is. A year ago the Steelers and Packers were both ranked are in the Top 10 in total defense.

Two years ago was a bit of an oddity, as both the Colts and Saints were dynamite offensively but had poor overall defensive stats. That’s not the norm. Eight years ago the Patriots were 7th in total defense and the Carolina Panthers were 8th. In addition, run defense is a bit more important statistically than pass defense, because it’s essential to be able to stop the run first. If the opposition can run successfully, especially on third down and short situations, there is less of a need to pass. Also, a successful running attack makes the passing game much more effective, with play-actions drawing the safeties forward and defenses having to bring more linebackers and defensive backs closer to the line of scrimmage. This can create mismatches and single coverage downfield, which is why offensive coordinators love balanced offenses. In that Super Bowl, the Patriots were 3rd against the run, the Panthers 11th. The Patriots won 32-29.

Nine years ago, the Raiders had the No. 1 offense in the NFL but the ‘D’ was 11th overall and a poor 23rd against the run. Tampa Bay was No. 1 in total defense and No. 6 against the run. The result? A huge win for the defense, as the underdog Bucs trashed the Raiders 48-21. Chalk up a big “W” for defense!

Nine years ago the Patriots were 24th in total ‘D’ and 18th against the run. The 14-point favorite Rams were No. 2 in total ‘D’ and 3rd against the run. That partly explains why the Patriots 20-17 upset win was one of the biggest surprises in Super Bowl history. Although there’s no denying that the Pats were better defensively than the stats might suggest with Bill Belichick in charge. The Pats ‘D’ had also played exceptionally well the final ten games of that season. And in 2008 the defense of the Giants knocked off the No. 1 offense, 17-14, as a +12 Super Bowl dog over the Pats.

11 years ago the Ravens were No. 2 in total defense and No. 1 against the rush. The Giants were No. 5 in total ‘D’ and No. 2 against the rush. Chalk another one up for defense as the Ravens dominated in a 34-7 rout.

12 years ago the Rams had an explosive offense behind MVP Kurt Warner, No. 1 in total offense. But don’t forget that St. Louis team was also No. 6 in total defense and No. 1 against the run! Their opponent, Tennessee, was 17th in total ‘D’ and 10th against the run. Chalk about another win for the better Super Bowl defense in the Rams’ 23-16 victory.

Want to go back further? The Denver Broncos won back to back Super Bowl titles behind QB John Elway and an explosive offense. But lost in the shuffle of the strong offense was that Denver’s defense ranked 5th and 11th in those years, when they beat Atlanta and Green Bay. The Falcons had a slightly better overall defense (8th) but Denver was statistically better than the 1997 Packers, who were a poor 20th against the run. Green Bay was a big favorite in that Super Bowl, but Terrell Davis exploited that weak run ‘D’ in Denver’s victory as a big dog.

So, yes, defense is more important to have than offense on Super Sunday. And this season? The Patriots are 31st in total defense, the Giants Steelers No. 29 against the pass, with the No. 19 run defense, 121 yards rushing per game. A year ago the Steelers and Packers were ranked No. 1 and 2 in the NFL in points allowed, but this season the Pats and Giants are 17th and 25th in points allowed. An aberration? Or is this a year we see a 38-34 shootout?

We have been in a golden age for the AFC for a while. It’s almost as if the pendulum has swung. During the 1980s and much of the 90s, the NFC dominated, winning 15 of 16 Super Bowls, including 13 in a row. That changed in 1998 when Denver upset Green Bay, 31-24. Since then, the AFC has won 9 of the last 14, though the Giants would like to make it three in a row after the Saints and Packers won the last two seasons.
Since 2004 rules have been changed by the NFL to favor offense. That includes enforcing the 5-yard rule to help wide receivers get down field with less hindrance and the Tom Brady rule, which protects quarterbacks. When the top-ranked offenses met two years ago, following the pass-happy Arizona Cardinals surprising run to the Super Bowl the previous season, many wondered if offense was now they way to build a championship team.

We get another answer to that puzzle as the Patriots are the modern “flashy offense” while the Giants are old school, with a powerhouse defensive line. Defense has almost always been the name of the game this time of the season and it appears defense has made a significant statement. The Saints and Packers got it done with offense this season, but the defensive-oriented 49ers and Giants upset them in the playoffs. A year ago in the conference finals, four teams (Steelers, Jets, Packers, Bears) were ranked in the Top 10 in total defense and Top 6 in points allowed. The Packers and Steelers are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in points allowed, so maybe defense isn’t dead yet!

The Giants have been amazing in that they were 7-7 and on the bubble to even make the playoffs before a sizzling 5-0 Su/ATS run. And how bad is this New England defense? They were second worst during the regular season, but have allowed 10 and 20 points in two playoff games, highlighted by the return of S Patrick Chung and LB Brandon Spikes, out much of the year.

The Giants hope to continue a trend: The underdog is 7-3 ATS the last ten Super Bowls, winning four times. Here’s a look at what to expect this weekend as America’s unofficial national holiday, the Super Bowl, kicks off.

What the Giants want to do: New York prefers to run the football and control the clock with RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, which will be imperative against New England’s no-huddle attack that can tire out defenses. The Giants rushed for 173 yards against the Falcons 6th-ranked run defense in the postseason and the NY defense allowed 247 total yards.

Their defensive front is so big and talented they probably won’t have to blitz a lot to get pressure on Tom Brady, which is what took place in the 2008 Super Bowl as the New England offensive line was manhandled.

While everyone is talking about the New York defensive line, don’t forget that QB Eli Manning (37 TDs, 17 INTs) leads an offense that is 5th in the NFL in passing, with 296 yards per game. WR Victor Cruz has been outstanding (1,536 yards) along with WR Hakeem Nicks (1,192 yds) and will be a handful for this soft New England secondary. The Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games, the Under is 8-2 in the Giants last 10 playoff games.

What the Patriots want to do: Get out in front early with their no-huddle and force the Giants to throw the football, playing their game. The Pats are at their best when forcing the other team to push the tempo which allows them to force turnovers, a formula they used last season, as well, when they led the league in turnovers while going 14-2.

The Patriots (15-3 SU, 9-8-1 ATS) offense is explosive behind QB Tom Brady (45 TDs, 15 INTs), WR Wes Welker (1,569 yards) and budding young star Rob Gronkowski (1,327 yards), as his 17 TDs set a record for tight ends. These teams met November 6 at New England and the Giants won, 24-20, as Manning threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to Jake Ballard with 15 seconds left. The Patriots had 438 yards (332 passing) but were 5 of 15 on third down; the Giants had 361 yards (250 passing and were 4 of 14 on third down. The Patriots turned it over 4 times (2 picks by Brady) while the Giants turned it over twice. Manning completed 20 of 39 passes for 250 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Brady was 28 for 49 for 342 yards and two touchdowns. Over the last 35 years, the “over” has gone 21-15 in Super Bowl play, though the under is 5-2 the last six years. Enjoy the big game!

San Francisco will host New York at 4:30 p.m. EST on Sunday for the NFC Championship Game. The winner advances to the Super Bowl (you may have heard of that) to face either Baltimore or New England.

The 49ers and Giants advanced to the NFC Title Game thanks to incredible defensive efforts last week, out muscling the No. 1 and No. 3 offenses in football, respectively, in wins over the Saints and Packers. San Francisco and New York forced turnovers and took advantage of weaker defenses in both games, and now they will bang heads in what should be another NFC Championship Game between these long-time rivals.

Storylines

This week’s New York-San Francisco championship game harkens back to some of the most historic postseason games in NFL history.

Their last playoff meeting was a 39-38 thriller in the 2003 Wild Card Round in which the Niners overcame a four-touchdown deficit, and the last time they met in the NFC Championship Game was a classic at San Fran back in 1991.

This week’s game is a rematch of a Nov. 13 game in the Bay Area. The 49ers took that game, 27-20, on the strength of 15 fourth-quarter points. The Giants outgained the Niners 395-305 and they actually moved the ball to the San Francisco 10-yard-line with under two minutes to play. But their effort for a tying touchdown was thwarted and they turned the ball over on downs.

To say that these two franchises have history is an understatement. But right now the Giants are the hottest team in the NFL. This team has won four straight must-win games – three of which were games in which a loss would have ended their season. Those four wins have all come by at least 15 points and right now New York is just wrecking people.

Offensively, the Giants have been multidimensional and explosive the past two weeks. They have tallied 24 and 37 points so far in the playoffs and they have managed 24 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall.

The Giants have managed at least 420 total yards in each of their playoff games. But the key to their offense has been the big-play capability of receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. That duo has contributed at least one touchdown play of 66 yards or longer in each of the last four games. And that doesn’t include last week’s game-changing Hall Mary touchdown by Nicks right before halftime in Green Bay.

The 49ers won’t have any fear of the Giants this week. This is a team they have already knocked off once and they will feed off the emotion of a raucous, title-starved San Francisco crowd.

San Francisco possesses the best defense left in the playoffs. They ranked No. 4 overall and No. 2 in the NFL in scoring during the regular season. The Niners also have one of the best rush defenses of the past 15 years and their front seven has been punishing opponents all season long.

Alex Smith has to be one of the most confident quarterbacks left in the playoffs. He produced last week’s incredible comeback and right now he has to be playing with house money. The Niners clearly have a lot of confidence in their quarterback – and in their incredible rookie coach, Jim Harbaugh – and that is crucial heading into an elimination game like this one.

But if San Francisco is going to win this game it will be on the strength of their power running game. The 49ers posses the No. 8 rushing offense in football and they will be pounding against, statistically, the league’s No. 19 rushing defense.

As has been the case throughout NFL history – exemplified by this season – the team that wins the turnover battle will most likely advance. New York didn’t force a turnover from the Falcons in their wild card game but they did stop Atlanta on fourth down twice. Last week the Giants won the turnover battle, 4-1, at Green Bay while the Niners benefitted from the aforementioned plus-four turnover differential.

Odds

According to NFL odds, the 49ers are token 2.5-point favorites in this game solely out of respect for the fact that they have the home field advantage. It is telling that they haven’t even received the token 3.0-point favorite status that home field usually garners. The Niners were 4.0-point favorites in the first meeting.

The total opened at 43.5 but has since plunged down to 42.5 as everyone expects this to be a close, low scoring game. Both teams played ‘over’ their respective totals last week and the first matchup went ‘over’ the total of 42.5.

Trends

The Giants continue to thrive in the underdog role this time of year. New York is 7-0 ATS in its last six playoff games as an underdog and they are 7-0 ATS in their last six road playoff games. The Giants are 7-1 ATS overall in their last seven postseason games and 6-2 ATS both overall as an underdog and on the road. Overall, the Giants are 35-17 ATS on the road and 20-8 ATS away from home against a team with a winning record.

San Francisco is now 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games overall and they are a stellar 19-6-3 ATS in their last 28 home games. San Fran is 12-3-1 ATS in conference games and 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. Although it has been a while since they have been in the postseason, the Niners are 4-1 ATS in their last five January games.

The favorite in this series is a perfect 4-0 ATS and the home team has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Giants are 5-1 ATS the last six times these clubs have faced off, dating back to 2002.

Predictions

Right now I feel like it is impossible to bet against the Giants. They have absolutely manhandled both Atlanta and Green Bay and I feel like both of those teams are better than the 49ers right now. The Giants are smoking hot right now and they have an edge in talent at the skill positions. Mix in the fact that they essentially outplayed San Francisco in the first matchup (and the Giants weren’t playing nearly as well then as they are now) and I think that the Giants will keep rolling.

I don’t want to take anything away from San Francisco’s outstanding home win last week against New Orleans. They came to play in that game and make big play after big play. But New Orleans is a weak road team and they essentially spotted the 49ers a 17-point lead. The Niners won the turnover battle, 5-1, and yet they still needed a last-ditch, last-second drive to pull out the win.

I know there is some sharp money on the home team here. And we will be pinned against the public by taking the Giants. But right now I think that New York is playing the best football in the league. Take the points and the G-Men.

However, during the conference championship games that kick off this weekend, history shows us that the two remaining teams in each conference are often on fairly equal footing, both straight up and against the spread. You might think the team with the home field has a big edge.

The last three years all five of six home teams (Colts, Saints, Cardinals, Steelers twice) won plus went 4-2 ATS, but notice that since 1992, the home team has won just 21 of 38 NFL title games straight up, and the visiting team is 20-18 against the spread. Going 23-15 straight up is a slight edge for the home teams, though far from dominant than many might expect to find in the second-biggest game of the season.

Within those statistics remember that there have been road underdogs that not only got the money, but won the game and advanced to the Super Bowl. Four years ago both road teams covered. The Patriots topped San Diego, 21-12, but failed to cover, while the +7 underdog road Giants won at Green Bay, 23-20. Six years ago Pittsburgh was a road dog at Denver, but clobbered the Broncos 34-17.

In 1995, San Diego was a 9½-point dog at Pittsburgh, but pulled the upset 17-13. In 1999 Atlanta was an 11-point dog at 16-1 Minnesota, yet won 30-27 in overtime, while Tennessee flattened big home favorite Jacksonville, 33-14, in 2000. Nine years ago the Patriots were a double-digit dog at Pittsburgh but won 24-17, and seven seasons ago the upstart Panthers rained on the Eagles’ parade in a 14-3 NFC Championship game upset in a somewhat frustrated city of brotherly love.

Those were just the big underdogs that triumphed. Smaller dogs have won in the conference championship games, as well. When Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl, they won 27-10 at Philadelphia as a 4-point road dog. In fact, coming into this weekend, the dogs are 14-8 against the spread the last 11 years in the NFL title games. The NFC has seen the dog go 9-3 ATS the last 12 years, including the last two seasons when the Packers covered at New Orleans and the Cardinals were a home do to the Eagles. Philadelphia’s trouncing of the Falcons in 2005, 27-10, ended a six-year run by underdogs covering in the NFC championship tilt. Certainly you can’t discount home field advantage, something the Patriots used in consecutive years to beat up the indoor Colts, 24-14 and 20-3 in the Foxboro cold, with the Colts turning the trick at home in 2007. However, there is generally greater balance between teams simply because at this point in the season, the remaining four teams are very strong and often evenly matched. In mid-January, you rarely find a team that has glaring weaknesses, for example, ranking at the bottom of the NFL in some offensive or defensive category.

It’s difficult for teams with major weaknesses to make the playoffs in the first place, and if they do make it, opposing coaches will attack those weak spots to their own advantage. The cream rises, which is what competition is all about. You also know that teams will be playing at a high level of intensity, as there is so much at stake — the winners go to the Super Bowl, the losers go home and sulk about what might have been. After such a long season, teams that have come this close to the Holy Grail are going to give everything they have for four full quarters.

Slicing the history another way, we find that the favorites are 24-12 straight up in NFL championship games and 19-17 against the spread the last 18 years. The total is 22-14 “over” during that time (2-0 over last January). Oddly, there have been more blowouts by the underdog than the favorite. The NY Giants rolled 41-0 in 2001 over Minnesota as a 2-point home dog. In January of 2000, Tennessee ripped the Jaguars 33-14 as a 7-point road dog. Throw in a 16-3 Ravens win at Oakland, a 27-10 Tampa Bay victory at Philly in 2003, the Steelers rout at Denver and the Giants’ win at Green Bay last season and the road dogs have packed quite a playoff bite.

Several big favorites have struggled, as well. The Rams were a 13-point favorite over Tampa Bay in 2000, yet needed a late TD to survive, 11-6, eight years ago the 10-point favorite Rams came from behind to squeeze by Philly, 29-24, and in 2008 the Chargers were a +14 dog but stayed all the way in a cover at New England. Still, before you jump on the live dogs, remember that the favorites had a nice run of their own from 1993-97 going 8-2 against the spread in the NFL title games. This is why looking at trends and angles must be approached with great caution. The current trend: the favorites are on a 6-2 ATS run in Conference Championship games.

On Sunday, January 22nd Its Championship Sunday. At 3:00 eastern it all kicks off with familiar faces with the Baltimore Ravens traveling up to New England in a Playoff rematch from 2010. In that game the Ravens garnered their first ever road win in New England catching a Patriots team off guard racing out to a 21-0 lead en route to a 33-10 win in a game where Ray Rice took the first play from scrimmage for an 80+ Yard touchdown. This Years Ravens team finally surged past the Pittsburgh Steelers and won the AFC North capturing the #2 seed and getting a home game instead of the usual wild card route where you have to win 3 road games to get to the Super Bowl. The Ravens were able to win the Divisional round game over a tough Houston team that may have won if they had starting Qb Matt Schaub available. The Ravens took advantage of some uneven play by Texans rookie Qb TJ Yates and were able to win on points off turnovers early on the game. The Patriots were easy winners over a Broncos team that was over matched on both sides of the ball. New England did a much better job on the Denver running game and forced Tebow to play from behind the whole day. On offense, much like the first game Tom Brady and the vaunted Patriots offense had too many weapons for the Broncos to account for. In this game the Patriots were installed a 7 point favorite and were immediately bet up to 7.5. The Patriots have a statistical edge of over 100 yards on offense, while the Ravens have a 100+ yard overall statistical edge on defense.. Both teams have performed well vs winning teams as the Patriots are 4-2 and the Ravens are 7-0. The records are very similar too as the Patriots are 14-3 while the Ravens check in at 13-4. The Ravens are 12-0 this season when scoring 20 or more points as that seems to be their magic number.This game could be another of the many that come down to turnovers. Both teams will face a tougher opponent than they did the previous week, Particularly the Patriots as Baltimore has more talent than Denver. Look for a spirited effort from both teams in what should be a very entertaining AFC Championship game.

The NFC Championship game will kick at 6:30 eastern. This year we have a Regular season rematch between to teams that met just over 2 months ago. The Giants travel cross country to take on a San Francisco team that came out of nowhere to win the NFC West after Hiring Harbaugh. The First game was a win for the Niners 27-20 in a game that was statistically won by the Giants. New York had a slight advantage rushing the ball 93-77 and also had more passing yards 302 to 228. The difference was the Niners played better on both sides of the ball in the red zone and the Giants were hurt by 2 costly turnovers. The Niners have won 5 of the last 6 in the series here at home. The Giants have the poise advantage as they are battle tested and come off their most impressive win of the season in a Big blowout win over the Defending Super Bowl Champion Packers. The Giants kept Green Bay off balance all day and were able to stymie the best overall offense in the league by getting constant pressure on Rogers without having to blitz and compromise pass coverage. The Packers weren’t able to mount much of a run game and were playing from behind the whole day while the rejuvenated Giants defense made them look average all day. The Giants on offense have a huge weapons with 2 stud receives in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nix, as well as some solid tight end play. They also do a good job of rotating Running backs Jacobs and Bradshaw, keeping them both fresh throughout the game. San Francisco is coming off an Instant Classic in a wild Home win over The New Orleans Saints in a game where they raced out to a 17-0 lead with the aid of several turnovers by a Saints team that did well to come back and take a lead in that game, as Dome teams on the road down 14-0 or more had never come back to win. The Niners were able to get a late touchdown with just seconds remaining on third down, electing to throw the ball into the end zone instead of squaring the ball for a game tying field goal. In this game the Niners will look to control the ball with star running back Frank Gore and keep the Giants off balance, to set up their aerial attack and utilize their electric duo of receivers led by Michael Crabtree.The Niners also have a stud at tight end in Vernon Davis who is coming off the best game of his career against the Saints and has emerged as quite the long ball threat for much maligned Qb Alex Smith. In his career with the 49ers Smith has taken his time to progress, and while he will never be mentioned in the same breath as elite Qb/s Like Counter part Eli Manning, he has cut down on his turnovers and has made many big plays while taking advantage of all his weapons. In the end this should also be a very competitive games where Turnover and execution will play a large part of determining this game. While many would have rather have seen the Opening night rematch between the Packers and Saints we will appreciate what both of these two teams have done this year. The Giants in beating the Packers were responsible for the knocking off the first 15 win team in their first playoff game in the history of the league and The 49 ers Resurgence from a terrible season last year. I will have a more in depth analysis on both of these games later in the week as we run simulators on both games then apply our database of Historical systems and Angles to the equation. RV

In Closing I hope you enjoy both Big games here on Championship Sunday. Check back later in the week as I Update both these games and look to improve on an 8-1 record thus far on sides and totals in the 2012 playoff season using time backed, cutting edge Power systems and Angles not seen anywhere else. You can also listen in to my weekly sports talk radio segment on Mondays at 7:05 eastern on 88.9 wsia.fm as I always have a Solid free Pick at the end of the segment. May all your wagers be winning wagers. Rob Vinciletti

We are in phase two right now, conference play. Conference play is unique in that schools are not traveling as much. A few years ago, North Carolina opened the season at Santa Clara, meaning a team from the southeast was traveling all the way across the country. After which the Tar Heels took on teams from the Big 10, Mountain West, the SEC and the Pac 10. That is a lot of travel time as well as facing teams they had never seen before. This makes matchups often difficult and upsets more likely (North Carolina lost 77-66 at Santa Clara as a 13-point favorite).

Conference play means playing teams in your region, which cuts down significantly on travel time. It also means players are facing other players they’ve seen last year, probably several times, and playing in facilities they have seen before. Home/road play is certainly a key element for handicappers to pay attention to, but with shorter distances and familiar places to go to, it can be less a factor with certain teams because they’ve been to the opposition’s gym before.

I recall one season Buffalo off the MAC came off an impressive win over Eastern Michigan, followed by a close 84-82 loss in overtime at a very good Northern Illinois squad. Buffalo got the cover in both games. The Bulls were experienced and not caught off guard by these teams, because Buffalo had beaten both a year ago. In fact, the prior season Buffalo beat Northern Illinois twice, 86-80 at home and again in the MAC tournament, 73-66. That’s three games against each other in less than a year. Familiarity may breed contempt in some social circles, but it helps in preparation in college basketball.

As conference play continues this month, it’s important to look back at how these teams did in recent years, especially with teams loaded with seniors. Another example could be a team with a significant rebounding advantage in the frontcourt taking on a team with a small frontcourt. Again, go back and look at recent games. Did they own the glass the last meeting? How about the last three meetings? Conference play offers many opportunities to do this, especially with teams facing each other two and even three times a year ago.

Cotton Bowl (Fri., Jan., 6): The all-running team against the all-passing one…and a pair of dynamite scoring offenses. Kansas State (10-2 SU, 9-2 ATS) is not flashy, with a ground game carrying the offense (33.1 points, 193.7 yards rushing), as the poor passing game is 109th in the nation behind 6-foot-5 junior QB Collin Klein (12 TDs, 5 INTs, 1,745 yards), a better runner. He leads the team with 1,099 yards rushing and 26 TDs, along with 5-7 sophomore RB John Hubert (933 yards, 5.0 ypc). They have overachieved for Coach Bill Snyder. K-State is on a 15-6 run over the total. The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.

Arkansas (10-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) has a wide open passing game for coach Bobby Petrino behind junior Tyler Wilson (22 TDs, 6 INTs, 3,422 yards), averaging 37.4 points and 307.8 yards passing (13th in the nation). He has experienced targets to throw to in senior WRs Joe Adams (630 yards) and 6-3 WR Jarius Wright (1,029 yards). Arkansas is on a 14-4 run over the total and 16-2 SU/12-5 ATS its last 17 games. The under is 8-0 in Razorbacks last 8 bowl games.

BCS Championship Game (Mon., Jan., 9): Here they go again! The SEC has won the last 5 national titles and will win again. Defense is the story (and revenge), with Bama No. 1 in points allowed (8.8) and LSU No. 2 (10.5). Alabama (11-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) has junior RB Trent Richardson (1,583 yds, 6.0 ypc), along with sophomore RB Eddie Lacy (631, 7.5 ypc) on another powerhouse team for Nick Saban. Sophomore QBs A.J. McCarron (16 TDs, 5 INTs) runs this balanced attack averaging 36 points, 213.6 yards passing, 219.8 yards rushing. The defense is sensational, yet they botched their first showdown at home with No. 1 LSU, a stunning 9-6 OT defeat. 3 missed field goals, 2 crushing turnovers and countless missed opportunities and poor execution cost them. They held LSU to 234 total yards and forced 2 turnovers. Bama is 21-10-1 under the total in their last 31 conference games.

No. 1 LSU (13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS) has a ton of talent, especially on defense. Senior QB Jarrett Lee (14 TDs, 3 INTs) has been very good, though the ground game leads the way behind soph RBs Spencer Ware (700 yds, 4.0 ypc) and Mike Ford (755, 6.1 ypc), a dynamic one-two backfield punch, averaging 38 ppg, 209 yards rushing and 167 passing. 6-4 junior WR Rueben Randle (904 yards) can stretch defenses averaging 18.1 yards per catch (though he caught only 2 passes in the first meeting against Bama). The Tigers are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Teams in playoff races like the Jets, Steelers, Cowboys and Ravens are all in the Top 16 in total defense. Five of the ten teams at the bottom of the list (Bucs, Colts, Rams, Panthers, Bills) have long been out of the playoff hunt and one (Raiders) is terrible defensive but only fighting for a division title because the division is so awful. Like Seattle last year, if the Raiders make the postseason, they won’t be going anywhere with this defense.

Will Green Bay play its starters down the stretch? On defense they should, to improve a unit that has been suspect, in the bottom 10. Another reason to play starters down the stretch is to keep them sharp for the postseason. The Colts sat their starters late in 2006 to have them rested for the playoffs. There were many people that split on the answer, but I think we’d all agree what the correct answer is: Play ‘em! Or at least, rest any injured players, but don’t bench the majority of starters the last two weeks of the regular season, even if everything is sewed up.

That was the position the Colts found themselves in after that 13-0 start. They had clinched everything: The division title, the bye week, home field for the postseason, the No. 1 spot. However, anyone who watched the loss to the Steelers saw an Indy team that was rusty for most of the game. Very rusty.
The Colts were out of sync most of the way in their 21-18 loss to the Steelers. Overall, having a bye week gives a team enough time, two weeks, to rest and prepare. It takes time and practice to get a team in sync because there are so many players that need to work together in unison: Blocking patterns, running backs hitting the proper holes, lineman pulling, receivers running patterns, quarterbacks getting the football to them on timing routes, etc.
That same season in the final regular season game for the Denver Broncos, they were 12-point dog at San Diego in a meaningless game. They had everything sewed up and needed only to stay healthy. Instead, Mike Shanahan had several starters play significant first half minutes. They also played inspired football, dominating the Chargers in an impressive performance.

I think back to the regular season finale in 2004 when the Patriots hosted the terrible 49ers at home in a meaningless game, yet Bill Belichick played the starters for three quarters. The reason was a little different, as the Patriots played a sluggish first half, tied 3-3, as a big favorite. Belichick didn’t like the performance and sent the starters back out for the second half, injuries be damned! They followed the next few weeks with dominating performances on the way to winning another Super Bowl title.

Stuffing the run is a huge key to building a championship defense. Yes, the fancy offensive teams get most of the attention and Sports Center highlights, but don’t be surprised if the better defensive teams find their way into the postseason and advance.

As 2010 draws to a close, we find ourselves smack in the middle of the bowls. You shouldn’t be bowled-out, either, as they build to the crescendo that is the LSU/Alabama showdown for the national title.

Belk Bowl (Tues., Dec. 27): A pair of teams that started slow and finished strong. Louisville rebounded from a 2-4 start to finish 7-5 under second-year coach Charlie Strong. The Louisville (7-5 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) offense (21.8 ppg) puts up few points, and averages just 206 yards passing and 122 rushing, but the defense has been great. Strong ran the defenses at Florida and has improved the Cardinals, allowing 19.4 ppg last season and 19.2 ppg this year. The offense started with junior QB Wayne Stein (5 TDs, 1 INTs), but after a shoulder injury turned to freshman QB Teddy Bridgewater (12 TDs, 9 INTs). The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.

NC State needed to win both of its final games to become bowl eligible and did so, topping Clemson (37-13) and Maryland (56-41). NC State (7-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) has a good offense behind junior QB Mike Glennon (28 TDs, 11 INTs, 2,790 yards) that is averaging 28 points and 238 yards passing. So you like passing offenses or tough defenses this time of the year?

Military Bowl (Wed., Dec. 28): A fun bowl featuring a great running team against a great passing and running team. Air Force (7-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) is fast on offense averaging 34.4 points and 320 yards rushing (2nd in the nation) behind senior QB Tim Jefferson (12 TDs, 6 INTs), senior QB Conner Dietz and tailback Asher Clark (1,096 yds, 7.3 ypc). This defense (27.3 ppg allowed) has struggled, especially in the secondary. Passing teams have picked apart the secondary, like when Notre Dame bombed them, 59-33, as did SDSU (41-27 loss). The Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. They are on a 9-3 run over the total.

Toledo has a transition taking place as football coach Tim Beckman announced that he had accepted the head coaching position at Illinois. OC Matt Campbell will run the show. Toledo (8-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) has a great offense because of two returning QBs, junior Austin Dantin (15 TDs, 3 INTs), sophomore QB Terrance Owens (15 TDs, 3 INTs) plus senior WR Eric Page (1,123 yards). They are averaging 42.3 points, 272 yards passing, 221 yards rushing. Northern Illinois had a wild 63-60 victory over Toledo in regulation! They had 589 yards (264 rushing), but allowed 532 (267 rushing). Then came a carbon copy, with Toledo beating Western Michigan 66-63 with 804 yards (419 rushing) while allowing 635 yards (548 passing). So, yes, they are ALL OFFENSE and no defense, allowing 30.9 ppg.

Champs Sports Bowl (Thurs., Dec. 29): Florida State (8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) and 2nd-year Coach Jimbo Fisher have a solid all around team despite 4 losses by a total of 18 points. They have a mostly passing offense, averaging 31.7 points, 118 yards rushing and 257.7 yards passing behind senior QB E.J. Manuel (16 TDs, 8 INTs) with young receivers 6-6 junior Rodney Smith (527 yds) and freshman WR Rashad Greene (497 yds). The defense (15.2 ppg allowed, 4th in the nation) is talented under defensive coordinator Mark Stoop, led by DB Xavier Rhodes and defensive end Brandon Jenkins (13.5 sacks in 2010). The Over is 5-2 in the Seminoles last 7 bowl games.

Notre Dame (8-4 SU/6-6 ATS) loves to throw under coach Brian Kelly, adding an uptempo attack (30.5 ppg, 258 yds passing, 156 rushing) to South Bend. They lost their first two games but are 8-2 since. Sophomore QB Tommy Rees (19 TDs, 11 INTs) is 12-3 as a starter. The ground game has junior RB Cierre Wood (1,043 yards, 5.2 ypc). Senior Jonas Gray (791 yds) hurt his knee and is done for the year. Gray’s injury was a huge loss for the Irish, who went 4-0 after he was inserted into the starting lineup. The Under is 18-8-1 in Fighting Irish last 26 road games.

Pinstripe Bowl (Fri., Dec. 30): An outdoor b-b-b-b-bowl game from frigid Yankee Stadium finds a pair of overachieving teams that weren’t expected to make a bowl. And it’s a clash of styles, as Rutgers has the dynamite passing game, Iowa State has the power ground attack. Iowa State (6-5 SU/7-4 ATS) plays hard for Coach Paul Rhoads and has two signature wins, a stunning 37-31 double overtime victory at home over No. 2 Oklahoma State changing the national title picture and a 41-7 rout of then No. 20 Texas Tech. The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Rutgers (8-4 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) has a great group of wide receivers in juniors Mark Harrison (274 yards) and Mohamed Sanu (1,144 yards), plus 6-6 sophomore WR Brandon Coleman (466 yards) who averages 29 yards per reception! New offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti (from Pitt) runs a pro-style attack better fits sophomore QB Chas Dodd (9 TDs, 7 INTs, 1,398 yards) and freshman QB Gary Nova (11 TDs, 9 INTs, 1,533 yards) averaging 26.3 points, 245 yards passing, 91.5 yards rushing. The Scarlet Knights are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Rose Bowl (Mon., Jan. 2): Two of the most potent offenses in the nation. Mighty Wisconsin (11-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) has a stacked offense with sophomore RB James White (683 yards, 5.1 ypc), junior Montee Ball (1,759 yards, 6.4 ypc) and speedy 6-3 senior WR Nick Toon (822 yds) and sophomore WR Jared Abbrederis (814 yards), great weapons for new QB Russell Wilson (31 TDs, 3 INTs, 2,879 yards, 72.5%). The Badgers are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall and on an 8-2 run over the total.

Pac 12 champ Oregon (11-2 SU/7-5 ATS) is tearing it up offensively under Chip Kelly, spreading the field, running the no-huddle and burning up defenses. They average 46.2 points with 219.5 yards passing and 295.7 yards rushing per contest behind junior QB Darron Thomas (30 TDs, 6 INTs, 2,493 yards) and junior RB LaMichael James (1,646 yards, 7.4 ypc). Oregon is on a 22-9 run over the total overall, 30-12-2 over the total in their last 44 games as a favorite.