Steve Janus – 5* AL East Game of the Month ***AMAZING 25-12 MLB HOT STREAK***

AMAZING 25-12 MLB HOT STREAK! Steve Janus delivered a PERFECT 3-0 PREMIUM CARD on Tuesday and is currently the NO. 4 HANDICAPPER OVER L30 DAYS! Get in on the action Wednesday with his 5* MLB AL EAST GAME OF THE MONTH! Steve has been crushing his top plays and is 22-10 OVER L32 MLB TOP PLAY SELECTIONS! This special offer is GUARANTEED TO PROFIT or you play Thursday’s entire MLB for FREE!

Brandon Lee – Mr. Lee’s NBA 2 Play Power Pack ***GREAT PARLAY***

*WEDNESDAY NBA 2 PLAY POWER PACK*

***GREAT PARLAY***
***NO. 7 NBA HANDICAPPER 2012***
***NO. 2 NBA HANDICAPPER L30***
***NO. 5 OVERALL L30 DAYS***
***NO. 7 OVERALL L60 DAYS***
***30-16 (65%) L46 NBA PLAYS OVERALL***
***24-7 (77%) L31 NBA PERSONAL FAVORITES(Top Play)***

Get the EDGE YOU HAVE BEEN LOOKING FOR, and take your bookie for a huge loss tonight! With MR. LEE’S 2 HIGHEST RATED NBA PLAYS you are GUARANTEED TO WIN or you play for FREE!

10* Celtics/76ers *PERSONAL FAVORITE*
8* Lakers/Thunder Power Play

View more picks from the nation’s best handicappers:

MLB Picks
Free MLB Picks

NBA Picks
Free NBA Picks

NHL Picks
Free NHL Picks

Featured Free NBA Pick:  Steve Janus

Los Angeles Lakers +8

Pick Analysis:
It’s going to be easy for everyone to load up on the Thunder in Game 2 after the beating they put on the Lakers in Game 1, but I wouldn’t be so fast to pull the trigger if I was you.

Los Angeles is one of the few teams that can take a beating and come right back out the next night and look like a completely different team. They did it twice in the first round against Denver. After losing 84-99 in Game 3 at Denver, the Lakers came back and won Game 4 92-88. They got killed 98-113 in Game 6, only to win 96-87 in Game 7.

The Lakers were really in a tough spot in Game 1, they just used all of their energy in that huge Game 7 win over the Nuggets, and ran into a Thunder team that hadn’t played in over a week. The fact that the Lakers got blown out in Game 1 actually helped them, as they were able to rest up their starters in the fourth quarter. They also didn’t waste a lot of energy defensively in that game, which is why the Thunder shot 53% from the field.

I’m not saying the Lakers are going to win Game 2, but I think its going to come down to the wire. The Thunder simply couldn’t miss in Game 1. Odds are they won’t make as many shots the second time around, especially now that the Lakers have a better understanding of what they want to do offensively.

Los Angeles is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, while the Thunder are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. BET THE LAKERS!

Get more free sports picks from all of our handicappers at SportsCapping.com.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Playing Game 1 @ H:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team playing Game 1 at home have the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record.

Game 1 record, NBA only, all rounds: 311-112 (.735)
Game 1 record, NBA only, Quarterfinals round: 134-42 (.761) Boston, Miami, Oklahoma City, San Antonio

In the 2011-12 NBA regular season, the Boston Celtics finished four games in front of the Philadelphia 76ers. From 1947 through the 2012 NBA 1st round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by four regular-season games, they have posted a 22-8 good for a 73% win percentage. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Philadelphia has a 19-24 series record, a 9-10 Quarterfinals-round series record, and a 22-21 Game 1 record, while Boston has a 61-21 series record, an 18-7 Quarterfinals-round record, and a 56-26 Game 1 record. This Series is the 11th best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics; Boston won six of the first ten meetings. This season the Sixers have taken two of the 3 meetings between the two teams. However it will be very difficult here for the 8th seeded Team to win a second round with no home court against a veteran team like the Celtics. This should be a long series and may go the distance. In the end though its the Celtics.

The Miami Heat also finished 4 game in front of their second round opponent the Indiana Pacers as they also fall under the 22-8 73% Win percentage scenario in this series. Indiana has a 10-10 series record, a 6-1 Quarterfinals-round series record, and a 10-10 Game 1 record, while Miami has a 12-8 series record, a 4-2 Quarterfinals-round record, and a 10-10 Game 1 record. This season Miami has won 3 of the 4 meetings between the clubs, winning the first 3 matchups before Indiana salvages the final game. The Heat have beaten the Pacers 5 of 6 times down in Miami and have taken 9 of the last 11 overall in the series. Miami appears to be on a mission and their finals loss last season to Dallas should only further their motivation and give them more resolve having gone through the experience. Look for Miami to win this series in no more than 6 games.

In the Western Conference Quarter finals the Oklahoma City Thunder finished six games ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers. When NBA teams led their opponents by 6 games, they have posted a 17-4 series record in those series against those opponents. Good for 81%. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the Los Angeles Lakers have a 68-29 series record, a 25-8 Quarterfinals-round series record, and a 64-33 Game 1 record, while Oklahoma City has a 3-2 series record, a 1-0 Quarterfinals-round record, and a 2-3 Game 1 record. The Lakers defeated the Thunder in the 2010 NBA Preliminary round. However these teams are going in different directions. The Lakers are trying to keep their winning window open, while the Thunder are much more seasoned and were the favorites to make the Finals coming out of the West until San Antonio when on the big run to secure the 1 seed. This season the Thunder took 2 of the 3 meetings and have revenge for the last meeting which was one by the Lakers. Los Angeles should remain competitive in this series. However teams like OKC coming off a sweep that are playing teams off a 7 games series have a decided advantage and the way this series sets up, the Lakers are not going to get much recovery time playing every other day, as opposed tot he first round where some of the games allowed 2 days rest. This could spell trouble later in the series. In the end I look for the Thunder to win the series.

In the other Western Conference Quarter final series the San Antonio Spurs finished ten games ahead of the Los Angeles Clippers by ten regular-season games, these teams are 17-3 in the series against their opponents. The Los Angeles Clippers have a 2-1 NBA Playoff series record, a 0-1 Quarterfinals-round series record, and a 2-1 Game 1 record, while San Antonio has a 26-18 series record, a 10-10 Quarterfinals-round record, and a 24-20 Game 1 record. This is the first meeting between these two teams in a best of 7 series. In this years games the #1 seeded Spurs won two of the 3 games played, losing the last one they played at home and setting up a home loss revenge scenario for game one. The Spurs will likely dispatch the Clippers in 4-5 games as teams who swept their opponents in round one have an excellent all time record vs teams who went 7 games in their last series. The Spurs are on a 23-1 runs when the Big three Duncan, Parker and Ginobli all play. The Clippers had a nice season and did well to get out of the first round. However this is too tough a task. The Spurs advance.

In closing we hope you enjoy the this preview and all the NBA Playoff games this post season, and may all your selections be winning ones. Rob is enjoying another Banner season in the NBA and has cashed at a high rate with his cutting edge NBA Playoff systems, direct from the Historical database, as he continues to bring you material you wont see anywhere else. Rob is consistent in all sports and is on an 11-1 run with his unique MLB Power systems.

Two weeks ago we saw a terrific game as the Thunder and Lakers played double overtime, with the Lakers winning, a possible playoff preview. However, the Thunder won the first two meetings easily, by 15 and 9 points. And it would have been an impressive 3-game sweep until LA outscoring Oklahoma City 30-14 in the fourth quarter to force overtime.

It’s difficult to read a lot into the Celtics meetings with the Hawks and Heat this season, especially the last month as Boston and Miami both rested start players. Note that the Celtics and Hawks went 2-1 under the total during the regular season, including two very low scoring games, 88-86 and 79-76. Not surprising with both ranking in the Top 5 in points allowed.

Last year the Celtics went 3-1 SU/ATS against the Miami Heat during the regular season. They won the first three games with relative ease when Miami was still trying to mesh Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron, before Miami whipped the Green late in the year, 100-77. Miami continued that dominance with an impressive playoff pounding of the Celtics, so the earlier meetings meant less.
Sometimes a team is missing key players for one or two of the meetings, which can explain why one team did poorly. Or, maybe the losing team played in difficult back-to-back spots. Other times, you may find that a team matches up well against an opponent. If a weaker rebounding team like Boston is playing Chicago, examine each regular season battle to see what was more important: Defense? Offense? Or rebounding?

Think back two years ago when LeBron was in Cleveland. The Cavs and Celtics split their season series 2-2, with the Celtics winning in Cleveland on opening night, the Cavs knocking off the Celtics by 20 in Boston in late February, then by 11 at home in mid-March, then losing 117-113 on Easter Sunday after the Cavs effortlessly wiped out a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter.

It was after that last meeting that LeBron proclaimed his dislike for the Celtics afterward: “We don’t like them, and they don’t like us.” All of which sets the stage for a physical series with emotions likely running high as there is some recent history that stands out, including a Miami 4-1 series rout in the playoffs a year ago. The Bulls and Heat have had regular season wars, as well, with physical, defensive play, going 3-0 under the total so far this season.

Another angle is when one team dominates another during the regular season, then the two meet in the playoffs. The public perception is that the team that dominated during the season will easily rout the opponent, but this is not always the case. You may have heard professional bettors speak of the “GAD” theory, or “Go Against the Dominant team” during the postseason. It’s not as simple as betting against the favored team that dominated during the regular season, but it’s something to keep in mind as the playoffs commence.

For instance, a few years ago the Sacramento Kings swept the Utah Jazz during the regular season, going 4-0 straight up and against the spread. The Kings didn’t just win – they rolled! Sacramento won those four regular season meetings by some frightful scores: 113-80, 114-90, 107-81 and 117-109. Utah was no pushover, though, with Stockton and Malone, plus hard driving coach Jerry Sloan. In their first round playoff battle, Utah went 3-0 against the spread in the first three games, even winning Game 2 at Sacramento, 93-86 as an 11-point dog.

The Kings were 12, 11 and 4-point favorites in those first three games, yet failed to cover winning 89-86 in Game 1, losing Game 2, and winning 90-87 in Game 3. During the four regular season meetings, the Kings were 10 and 8 point favorites at Sacramento – but now in the playoffs, they were bumped up to 12 and 11 point chalk – clearly public perception had something to do with that based on the regular season dominance. Utah didn’t give in, even using their 0-4 regular season as a motivation factor.

Remember five years ago when No. 8 Golden State shocked top-seeded Dallas in the first round? Few recall that the Warriors went 2-1 SU/ATS against the mighty Mavs during the regular season, even winning the only game at Dallas. The smart handicapper saw an uptempo team that could run right with Dallas, which continued during their 6-game playoff upset. Examine regular season meetings carefully. Don’t be fooled by regular season dominance, and take note of injuries, rebounding edges, free throw attempts and when a big dog played the favorite evenly (or better) all season. The real story — and edges against the oddsmakers – can be found in the details.

While the betting public tends to focus most of their handicapping efforts on picking the winner for this race, there are a number of prop bets available as well to add to the excitement of Derby Day. The following is a look at a few of the more interesting ones out there.

The Winning Time

The Kentucky Derby is often referred to as ‘the most exciting two minutes in sports, and for good reason. The winning time for this 1 ¼-mile race is usually right around the two minute mark. Secretariat, who won the Triple Crown in 1973, still holds the record for the fastest time at 1:59.40, but every other finish since then, except for Monarchos’ 1:59.97 winning run in 2001, has been over the two-minute mark.

The prop bet for this year’s race is ‘over’ 2:02.50 -120 and ‘under’ 2:02.50 -120. Since 2000, the winning horse has finished ‘under’ this time in seven of12 Kentucky Derbies.

Winning Horse wins the Preakness Stakes

The Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race track in Baltimore is the second leg of the Triple Crown and it is always held two weeks after the Derby on the third Saturday in May. The race is the same 1 ¼ length and also run on a dirt track.

The prop bet that the winner of the Kentucky Derby goes on to win the Preakness is +200 for ‘
‘yes’ and -300 for ‘no’. Since 1989, when Sunday Silence won both these races, there have been a total of seven thoroughbreds that have accomplished this feat. The last horse to win both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness was Big Brown in 2008.

Winning Horse wins the Belmont Stakes

The final and most grueling leg of the Triple Crown is the 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes, which is run on dirt in early June at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. This year’s race is set for Saturday, June 9.

The prop bet that the Kentucky Derby winner goes on to win the Belmont is +300 for yes and -500 for no. Winning both of these races is a much more daunting task given the additional length of the Belmont. Since Affirmed last won the Triple Crown in 1978 only Swale in 1984 and Thunder Gulch in 1995 have been able to win both of these races.

The prop bet that a horse will win two of the three Triple Crown races is -120 for both yes and no. Since Affirmed made his Triple Crown run there have been five horses that failed to win the Kentucky Derby but went on to win both the Preakness and the Belmont.

Triple Crown Winner

The prop bet that the winner of the Kentucky Derby goes on to win both the Preakness and the Belmont to bring home horse racing’s biggest prize is +750 for yes and -1000 for no. As previously mentioned, Affirmed was the last horse to accomplish this feat and in the history of these three races there have only been 11 horses that have won the Triple Crown.

Triple Crown Races – Three Different Winners

The prop bet that a different horse will win each of the Triple Crown races this year is -155 for yes and +115 for no. In six of the last 15 years, there have been three different winners for each of the three races. Big Brown was the last horse to win more than one Triple Crown race.

A Wire-to-Wire Derby Win

The prop bet that one of the 20 horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby field will break from the gate in first place and hold on to win the race is +400 for yes and -700 for no. Given the 1 ¼-mile length of this race, it is highly unlikely that any trainer or jockey would employ this strategy, especially since in the previous 137 Derbies only 22 horses have been able to go wire-to-wire to finish first.

Both fighters are brazilian jiu jitsu black belts and have won the majority of their fights by submission. It is hard to determine who will have the grappling edge, although Miller does average more submission attempts per fight. This can mainly be attributed to the fact that he aggressively pursues submission opportunities even to his own determent as was the case in the Ben Henderson fight. If there is an edge on the mat, Miller is a former NCAA Wrestling champion and considering Diaz’s past difficulties with wrestling-based fighters this could be the most significant aspect of the grappling comparison.

Diaz is well known for his patented “Stockton Slap” and does a gets nice extension on his punches to further maximize his reach advantage. He changes levels nicely, battering his adversary’s midsection, and he is most effective when he is pushing the action and forcing his opponent to move backwards. Against Donald Cerrone he continually forced “Cowboy” to back pedal and reset, which severely limited his offensive output.

Although Miller only has three wins by knockout, he has shown decent power and he is generally quite comfortable with his striking. Miller effectively uses his speed and movement to constantly attack his opponent primarily with his hands and sometimes mixing in kicks.

This a difficult fight to predict, but when it comes down to it there are a number of areas that stand out when making a final prediction.

First, although Diaz looked fantastic against Takanori Gomi and Donald Cerrone, both opponents were willing to engage in a style of fight that suited Diaz. Standing directly in front of Diaz, both fighters allowed him to exploit his reach advantage and land his punches at will.

Secondly, Diaz normally has a distinct conditioning advantage. However, this shouldn’t be the case against Miller. Miller has equally-as-impressive cardio and will have no problem fighting the full five rounds no matter how hard Diaz pushes the pace.

In addition, Miller has an excellent chin and has shown an uncanny ability to take punishment. His durability was best exemplified in his fight with Ben Henderson where Miller took a significant amount of punish from bell to bell. Similar to the issue of cardio, Diaz thrives when his opponent begins to fade as a result of the accumulation of punches. But, again, I don’t anticipate Miller succumbing to such a fate.

Finally, this will be the first time in more than two years that Diaz will face a wrestling-based opponent at lightweight, and Miller also has the BJJ skills to match Nate on the ground. Conversely, Miller’s only two losses in the last five years have come against Henderson and Gray Maynard, who both used their wrestling and overall physical strength to neutralize Miller. So when comparing the fighter profiles that have historically given each man problems, we can see that this also favours Miller.

My prediction for is Miller to get his hand raised at the end of the night and at -225 that is not a bad investment, but it is not the only investment possibility. In a joint 46 fights, these two fighter have combined to be finished only once (Diaz via submission in 2006) while having gone to a total of 17 decisions. This is a clear indication that any form of prop bet based on the length of the fight, for example taking the total rounds to go ‘over,’ is a sensible bet.

Ultimately, both men are exciting fighters that have combined for 12 fight bonuses. If you have difficulty discerning which fighter will emerge victorious and would rather just sit back and enjoy the action, then a bet on this bout to be Fight of the Night would also be a well-placed venture.

UFC on Fox 3: Diaz vs Miller is going to be an entertaining night of fights from start to finish with a lot of betting potential,

I’m not a proponent of putting much stock in regular season meetings. This can get tricky for many reasons, one of which is situations. During the regular season, you find teams facing each other at the end of a long road trip. Of course the visiting team might not be up to their normal abilities if they’re facing a conference opponent at the end of a six-game road trip, for example. Another instance would be the second of a back to back situation, or if a team is playing its fourth game in five nights. Rested Team A may destroy Team B in that situation, but that doesn’t then give them an edge when the playoffs roll around.

Players don’t buy into this, either. I hear and read comments from players all the time where they talk about some regular season meeting three months ago and they brush it off with, “That game doesn’t mean anything as to how we’re going to approach this playoff game.” In addition, star players and even coaches are sometimes absent from regular season meetings.

The Nuggets and Lakers are playing in the first round. We may think of them as uptempo offenses (Denver sure is), but notice the under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings. Utah is playing San Antonio and the Jazz is 3-11-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in San Antonio, plus the favorite is 21-7-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.

Last year the Celtics went 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS against the Knicks during the regular season, including a game to end the regular season. However, you can’t read much into those games. The first two occurred very early in the season, long before the Knicks traded everyone to acquire Carmelo Anthony. And the last one took place in the final regular season game with BOTH teams resting their best players.

What’s far more important to look at is health and matchups. This season the Celtics are playing the Hawks and have health concerns, with Ray Allen not playing much while dealing with bone spurs. Celtics coach Doc Rivers said Allen is about “60 percent” to play after missing the past nine games with a sore right ankle. And Paul Pierce left last week’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks with a sprained left big toe.

You can’t qualify a performance without a key player during the regular season when analyzing how they then matchup with a team in the postseason. Even teams change. Look at the Knicks. You can’t compare New York’s regular season meetings with many teams because they’ve dealt with key injuries to Amare Stoudamire and Jeremy Lin. In many ways, it isn’t even the same New York team that stumbled through the first half of the season.

There’s no better example of this than a playoff series between the Jazz and Kings a few years ago. During that regular season, the Kings went 4-0 SU/ATS against the Jazz, blasting them by frightful scores of 113-80, 114-90, 107-81, and 117-109. The two then met in the first round of the playoffs, and the Kings were 12 and 11 point favorites in the first two games, inflated numbers based largely on those four regular season meetings. Yet, the veteran Jazz, with Karl Malone and John Stockton, played extremely well in the playoffs, going 3-1 ATS. Sacramento won Game 1 89-86 then Utah won Game 2 on the road 93-86 as a +11 dog! Sacramento won three games in that series by 3, 3 and 5 points – so much for their regular season dominance!

Utah comes in just having clinched the #8 seed and have not had an opportunity to rest players like San Antonio has.  The Spurs are the best team in the NBA and has the #1 rated offensive team based on offensive efficiency and #11 in defensive efficiency.  They are extremely deep with Manu Ginobli coming off the bench (12.9-ppg).  The Spurs have nobody avg over 30 minutes played per game except for Tony Parker.  Parker is quietly having an MVP caliber season.  This team is just too explosive on offensive and it is rare that the Spurs count on their offense to win games but that is the way they play.  They are above avg in possessions per game based on 48 minutes.  So the Spurs like to go up and down.  Utah does not match-up well with the Spurs as they are a young team led by Al Jefferson (19.4-ppg) and Paul Milsap (16.6-ppg).  Utah is rated #7 in offensive efficiency and only rated #20 in defensive efficiency.   There too much of a talent and coaching disparity to give Utah a chance.

Prediction: San Antonio in 4

ATS Trends:
San Antonio: 42-20-4 ATS; 23-8-2 home; 19-12-2 away
San Antonio: 40-26 Over-Under; 16-17 home; 24-9 away
Utah: 33-31-2 ATS; 19-13-1 home; 14-18-1 away
Utah: 32-31-2 Over-Under; 16-16-1 home; 16-16 away

#5 LA Clippers (40-26 SU) vs #4 Memphis (41-25 SU)

Memphis comes into the NBA playoffs as the team that nobody wants to face because of their first round upset last year against the Spurs as the #8 seed.  Defense wins championships and Memphis has a solid defensive team allowing only 93.2-ppg and rated #7 in overall defensive efficiency.  The team is lead by Rudy Gay (18.9-ppg) and Marc Gasol (14.5-ppg).  Memphis is rated #21 in offensive efficiency and avg 95.1-ppg.  The Clippers were everyone’s pick to win the Pacific Division but went through a mid-season slump and there was almost a revolt against the Head Coach Vinny Del Negro.  They overcame their differences to finish strong and get the home-court advantage in the first round.  The Clippers are rated #4 in offensive efficiency and #15 in defensive efficiency.  This is an intriguing match-up to say the least and could go the full seven games.  LA is 2-1 SU against Memphis year winning both games at home.

Prediction: Memphis in 7

ATS Trends:
LA Clippers: 33-31-2 ATS; 17-16 home; 16-15-2 away
LA Clippers: 33-33 Over-Under; 14-19 home; 19-14 away
Memphis: 29-36-1 ATS; 16-17 home; 13-19-1 away
Memphis: 26-39-1 Over-Under; 16-16-1 home; 10-23 away

#7 Dallas (36-30 SU) vs #2 Oklahoma City (47-19 SU)

The NBA defending champion Mavericks barely make it into the playoffs this year as a #7 seed.  The Mavs are a year older and not as deep this year as there were last year.  With Lamar Odum flying off the deep-end this does not leave Dallas too many options off the bench with significant playoff experience.  This team is old and has really done a good job this year after a slow start.  Dallas is led by Dirk Nowitski (21.6-ppg) and Jason Terry off the bench at (15.2-ppg).  This is a team that does not match-up well against the younger and more vibrant OKC Thunder team.  Dallas struggles to score offensively as they rated #20 in offensive efficiency.  Dallas has been solid on the defensive end as they are rated #11 in defensive efficiency.  OKC is led by two of the best young players in the game, Kevin Durant (28.0-ppg) and Russell Westbrook (23.5-ppg).  OKC is also led on the defensive end with shot-blocking wizard Serge Ibaka (3.7-bpg).  OKC likes to push the pace on offense and take chances on defense as they are rated #3 in possessions per game (97.5).  OKC is rated #2 in offensive efficiency and #10 in defensive efficiency.  There is just too much talent with this team and wouldn’t be surprised if they won the NBA Title this year.

Prediction: OKC in 5

ATS Trends:
Oklahoma City: 35-31 ATS; 17-16 home; 18-15 away
Oklahoma City: 31-34 Over-Under; 17-15 home; 14-19 away
Dallas: 31-34-1 ATS; 16-16-1 home; 15-18 away
Dallas: 33-32-1 Over-Under; 15-18 home; 18-14-1 away

#6 Denver (38-28 SU) vs #3 LA Lakers (41-25 SU)

Looks like Metta World Peace has not given peace a chance with his latest melt down.  He will be suspended for the first 6 games of the series and he better hope that the series goes 7 or the Lakers pull out the win before his suspension is up.  Denver is the league’s highest scoring team avg 103.7-ppg and rated #3 rated in offensive efficiency.  Denver has 4 players avg in double-figures and they are very difficult to key on player.  Denver is the worst defensive team in the players as they rated #21 in defensive efficiency.  That won’t get it done.  Denver excels at home as they are 20-13 SU.  The problem is the Lakers have the home-court advantage.  The Lakers are playing well with the emergence of Andrew Bynum but will miss World Peace on the defensive end.   Head Coach Mike Brown was looking for his team to focus on the defense this year as they allowed 95.6-ppg and were rated #11 in defensive efficiency.   This will be a fun series to watch as the Lakers should score some points against a poor Denver defense.  The Lakers are rated #10 in offensive efficiency and the playoffs are what Kobe Bryant lives for and his fresh legs could make the difference.

Prediction: LA Lakers in 7

ATS Trends:
LA Lakers: 27-38-1 ATS; 16-17 home; 11-21-1 away
LA Lakers: 37-28-1 Over-Under; 18-15 home; 19-13-1 away
Denver: 36-30 ATS; 14-19 home; 21-12 away
Denver: 32-33-1 Over-Under; 13-20 home; 19-13-1 away

The Bulls have a done a great job this year considering they played almost half the year with the reigning MVP Derrick Rose.  Tom Thibodeau is one of the best defensive coaches in the NBA and Chicago will go as far as their defense takes them.  Chicago is #1 in defensive efficiency and allows a league best 88.4-ppg.  By playing great defense this allows their team to be in just about every game they play even if their offense is not clicking.  Derrick Rose led the Bulls in scoring at 22.2-ppg but missed most of the year because of injury and rest.  Lual Deng and Carlos Boozer are having solid years and have picked their team up in Rose’s absence.  The Bulls are rated #6 in offensive efficiency and get a lot of 2^nd chance opportunities because they lead the NBA in offensive rebounding.  Philadelphia plays great defense as well as they are rated #2 in defensive efficiency and #2 in points allowed at 89.2-ppg. They really like to slow the pace down when they play as they are rated #28 in possessions per game.  Philly is rated #17 in offensive efficiency and #22 in scoring at 93.8-ppg.  If you like defense and low scoring games, then this is the series for you.  If the Bulls struggle to score this could be an interesting #1 vs #8 series.  The Bulls have more talent and the experience to get it done.

Prediction: Chicago in 5

ATS Trends:
Chicago: 39-27 ATS; 18-15 home; 21-12 away
Chicago: 32-34 Over-Under; 15-18 home; 17-16 away
Philadelphia: 34-32 ATS; 17-16 home; 17-16 away
Philadelphia: 29-36 ATS; 11-22 home; 18-14 away

#5 Atlanta (40-26 SU) vs #4 Boston (39-27 SU)

Atlanta will be the #5 seed but will have home-court advantage in this series.  Atlanta has done a great job without their top rebounder Al Horford being out most of the year with an injury.  Horford is not expected to play in this series.  Atlanta is rated #16 in offensive efficiency and #6 in defensive efficiency.  Defense is what matters in Boston as they are ranked #2 in defensive efficiency and #3 in points allowed (88.9-ppg).  Look for this to be a defensive and a possession by possession grind out series.  Boston is rated #24 in offensive efficiency and #26 in points per game (91.9-ppg).  Boston is looking to make one final run with the Big 3 (Garnett, Allen, Pierce).  These two teams are evenly matched and will get after it defensively.  We will call for the “upset”.

Prediction: Atlanta in 6

ATS Trends:
Boston: 33-32 ATS; 18-15 home; 16-17 away
Boston: 29-35-1 Over-Under; 13-19-1 home; 16-17 away
Atlanta: 35-29-2 ATS; 17-16 home; 18-13-2 away
Atlanta: 34-32 Over-Under; 19-14 home; 15-18 away

#7 New York  (36-30 SU) vs #2 Miami (46-20 SU)

The Knicks have had a roller coaster season when you talk about injuries and a coaching change and more injuries.  With Amare back in the lineup look for the Knicks to be a better rebounding team with him back.  Carmelo Anthony is stepping up and leading this tean but the Knicks will only go as far as their bench will take them.  Novak and Smith are keys for the Knicks and now Mike Bibby is getting minutes.  The Knicks are a team that has evolved from just focusing on offense and not caring about defense to putting most of their focus in defense under interim coach Mike Woodson.  The Knicks are a surprising #5 in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  That will be the key for them in this series.  With Melo leading the way the Knicks are rated #11 in offensive efficiency.  Miami has a lot of pressure on them this year and it is championship or bust for them.  After losing in the NBA Finals last year look for them to make a solid run this year.  Miami matches up well against the Knicks as they are 3-0 SU this year.  No on one the Knicks can stop Lebron or Wade and that will be the difference in this series.  Miami gets after it defensively allowing 92.3-ppg and rated #4 in defensive efficiency.  The Heats offense has slowed down a bit from the beginning of the year as they looked like they wanted to run and gun every game.  The Heat are rated #5 in offensive efficiency and should be well rested to put up some big numbers in this series.

Prediction: Miami in 5

ATS Trends:
Miami: 32-34 ATS; 18-15 home; 14-19 away
Miami: 25-39-2 Over-Under; 10-23 home; 15-16-2 away
NY Knicks: 35-30-1 ATS; 20-12-1 home; 15-18 away
NY Knicks: 27-29 Over-Under; 15-18 home; 12-21 away

#6 Orlando (37-29 SU) vs #3 Indiana (42-24 SU)

We all know the story about Orlando and the drama that surrounded Dwight Howard.  Howard is out for the playoffs and Orlando is really hanging on by a thread.  Defensively, with Howard not in the lineup, the Magic have been horrible.  Overall, Orlando is rated #13 in defensive efficiency.  That numbers drops considerably with Howard not playing.  Orlando can’t outscore teams either.  Overall, they are rated #15 in offensive efficiency.  Indiana is a team that is flying under the radar.  Led by Danny Granger (18.7-ppg) and four others that avg in double-figures, this is a team that can score as they are avg 97.7-ppg and rated #8 in offensive efficiency.  Indiana should breeze through this round and they will give the Heat all they can handle in the conference semi-finals.

Prediction: Indiana in 5

ATS Trends:
Indiana: 32-34 ATS; 15-18 home; 17-16 road
Indiana: 34-30-2 Over-Under; 16-16-1 home; 18-14-1 away
Orlando: 34-32 ATS; 17-16 home; 17-16 away
Orlando: 35-30-1 Over-Under; 20-12-1 home; 15-18 away

Many coaches are sitting veteran players because it has been an unusual season with the late start, then cramming 66 games into an abbreviated schedule littered with back to back spots as well as three games in three nights, which was unheard of for years.

Gregg Popovich in San Antonio has sat Tim Duncan out many times, especially in the second of back to back spots. Boston coach Doc Rivers has rested Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and even Rajon Rondo often the last month. It’s essential for handicappers to keep up with rosters and players who are sitting or playing.

Also, as we are into the second half of the season, teams that are gearing up to make a postseason run are tinkering with their lineups. And those that are out of the playoff hunt are beginning to make moves that are focused on next season.

Good news for the New York Knicks is that Amare Stoudemire is back. The bad news is they lost to the Cavs, 98-90 on Friday. Stoudemire had missed New York’s previous 13 games with a bulging disk. But even with him in the lineup, the Knicks couldn’t handle the Cavs, who snapped a three-game losing streak and won for just the fourth time in 19 games. Stoudemire finished with 15 points and Carmelo Anthony had 12 before sitting out the fourth quarter.

Manny Harris had 19 points and 12 rebounds to lead the Cavs, and rookie Kyrie Irving scored 21 in his second game back from a shoulder injury. Cleveland’s Anderson Varejao was shut down for the remainder of the season by the Cavs because he’s still has soreness around his broken right wrist. Varejao broke his wrist on Feb. 10 against Milwaukee, and while the fracture has healed, the area close to his wrist was causing him discomfort.

Orlando has its own problems with Dwight Howard out for the rest of the year and Magic coach Stan Van Gundy doubted Hedo Turkoglu’s ability to return for the playoffs. The Magic is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on two days rest. In addition, are they less concerned about defense? Orlando is on a 9-4 run over the total.

Chicago has had Derek Rose in and out of the lineup and Miami has done the same with Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade down the stretch, making keeping track of injuries and lineups essential. By the way, the under is 20-6 in the Heat’s last 26 home games and 21-5 under the total in the Heat’s last 26 games playing on one day’s rest. The point is, a good handicapper needs to keep up on ALL moves and carefully assess the results on the court and against the spread.

Last week the Denver Nuggets were in the second of a back to back spot and got beat up at Golden State as a favorite, losing 112-97. The next game they took out their frustration in a 123-84 destruction of the same team that just embarrassed them, the Warriors! That was a double chip on their shoulders.

I recall one season when the Indiana Pacers got pounded. They decided not to show up in their 105-75 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. Indiana was a good team fighting for a playoff spot, so that loss raised eyebrows. “It was a terrible performance. It’s as simple as that,” the coach said. Point guard Anthony Johnson said, “We were embarrassed, point blank.” So what happened the next game? The Pacers played a very passionate game, covering in a 95-85 win over Chicago. What happens in one game can have an effect on what happens next.

That same year the Miami Heat got destroyed by Dallas 112-76 back on February 9. Surely that was the biggest embarrassment of the season for the Heat. Miami then won 10 in a row and went 5-2 ATS after that debacle. A slap in the face, particularly one on national TV, can wake a team up helping them go on a strong run, often times both straight up and against the number.

Of course, you have to be careful when bad teams get blown out, as that can have the opposite effect. Perhaps the bad team doesn’t care anymore or the players have tuned out the coach.