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Royals/A’s OVER 7.5

While last night’s game may have been a pitcher’s duel, there should be no shortage of offense today. Tom Milone will get the start for Oakland today and while his overall numbers on the season have been solid he is certainly trending in the wrong direction. Milone is 0-3 in his last three starts with a 4.26 ERA. He has given up 4 home runs in those last three games. Milone is facing a Royals team that is batting .267 in their past 7 games and scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game.

Oakland picked up a 2-1 victory last night and they were facing one of the best pitchers on Kansas City’s rotation in James Shields. They should be able to get back to their normal 4.7 runs per game scoring average today. They are facing Ervin Santana who is coming off a confidence crushing performance against New York just under a week ago. Santana gave up 2 home runs and 4 earned runs. Santana has struggled on the road posting a 4.26 ERA and a 1-1 record.

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For instance, after losing Game 1 at the Lakers a year ago, 103-88, the Nuggets covered in a close one in Game 2, 104-100, by changing strategy and going uptempo in the second half. They got beat on the glass in the first game, but showcased more low post hustle in Game 2 where they outrebounded the taller Lakers.

That’s nothing new. Two years ago the Lakers blew out the Hornets in Game 3, 100-86, then the a different New Orleans club showed up the next game, winning straight up as a +5 dog. Three years ago after losing Game 1, the Celtics stunned the Cavaliers in Game 2, 104-86, at Cleveland as an underdog. At one point they led 91-66. A big part of the story was Rasheed Wallace, who had been called out by Coach Doc Rivers after a lousy opener, but added 17 points off the bench.

Incensed, the Cavaliers had a few days to stew about the embarrassing home defeat, then went to Boston for Game 3 and blew out the Celtics, 124-95. It was Boston’s worst home playoff defeat in history and the Cavs shot 59%. The fans booed when Boston left the court at halftime down 65-43.  Series over? No. Boston then won the next three games, including a blowout of their own, 120-88 with Cleveland fans booing their team!

Overall, blowouts are less expected this time of the year. Oddsmakers are anticipating that the majority of teams want to be here and will play all out for 48 minutes keeping things relatively close.

This year’s Hawks/Pacers series is a good example. Indiana destroyed Atlanta in the first two games, 107-90 and 113-98, only to get blown out in Game 3, a 90-69 Hawks rout. What happened in Game 2 meant nothing in predicting Game 3.  It wasn’t just home court that turned the trick but some subtle changes. The Hawks changed up their lineup — inserting 7-footer Johan Petro at center and bringing 3-point specialist Kyle Korver off the bench — after getting manhandled on the road. With more favorable matchups and a lot more energy, Atlanta looked like a different team.

Playoff teams have some talent or star players, which also makes closer, more competitive games likely, especially as the playoffs move along. Still, one-sided games can happen for a variety of reasons. Seven years ago the Spurs positively trashed the Kings in Game 1, 122-88. The stats on the game were frightening, with San Antonio shooting 57% and holding the Kings to 39%, while winning the battle of the boards 51-32.

However, a funny thing happened in Game 2: the Kings showed up. They showed up with a vengeance, too, taking the Spurs to overtime before a wild 128-119 loss, though the angry dog still covered. Public perception can be such that many were thinking the Spurs were going to destroy the Kings even worse in Game 2.   However, the veteran Kings were embarrassed and angry. A very different team showed up for Game 2, one that was motivated by the blowout.

The point is, don’t easily dismiss teams that get routed. If they have talent, are well coached, or have strong leadership, they can bounce back and look like a very different team the next game. Another factor to consider is defense. Many teams that make the postseason know how to play defense and in a blowout loss, perhaps a team simply had a bad defensive game. Or, the opponent was doing something that they couldn’t adjust to. Though after watching game films, adjustments are made, which is why they can look very different.

Adjustments and motivation can spur a team in a bounce-back role, as well as the fact that they simply had a bad game. Even handicappers have to learn not to overanalyze certain situations. The important point is not too read too much into a single, one-sided game. The playoffs only increase competitive fire and passion with teams facing each other over and over again, making adjustments and revenge spots even more acute. You may recall the NBA Finals seven years ago, when two blowouts were followed by close nail-biters, with the dog covering. Dallas won Game 2, 99-85, but the next game Miami won by a basket. In Game 4, the Heat rolled by 24 points, only to see Game 5 go into overtime and decided by one point.

One season the Celtics danced all over the Pacers in a 102-82 Game 1 rout. Boston players made foolish comments after the game about how they were already thinking about advancing to the next round! In Game 2, a very different Indiana team showed up in an 82-79 win as a road underdog.  They eventually won the series, too. Every dog can have his day in the NBA playoffs, so be careful: one-sided blowouts can be very different the next encounter.

Don’t Just Default to the Derby Winner

I want to see a Triple Crown winner more than I want to see anything else in sports. That can blind me to all horses other than the one who was just wearing roses. For many years I had a strict policy. I made just one Preakness bet no matter what — the Derby winner to win. At times that has been a profitable approach — even over longer periods — but it isn’t generally a strong approach. For every time you get to bet on a horse like Big Brown or I’ll Have Another, you also end up with a real dud like Giacomo or Monarchos.

Winning the Derby is a very tough challenge. Horses have to overcome a massive, incredibly loud crowd that can easily spook them and cause them to bolt — as it did this year for Vyjack. They have to deal with many more horses than they are used to, and those horses can act more like walls than anything else at times. This year, Will Take Charge was making a nice move down the stretch, but he ran into a rapidly-reversing Verrazano, and all momentum was lost. They have to run further than they have ever run before and further than most are really bred to handle. They also may have to deal with a strange pace scenario, like this year and the suicidal early speed of Palace Malice. Sometimes the horse that can overcome all that and win is the best horse in the field. Sometimes, though, it’s just the horse that was in the best situation to benefit from the circumstances on the day (I’m talking to you, Mine That Bird).

Before you automatically and blindly pick Orb this year, you need to evaluate just how good he really is and whether he really deserves your attention and support. His win was very impressive, and he was favored going into the race, so you can’t argue that his win was a fluke. He did benefit from some things in this race, though — that crazy early pace set the race up perfectly for a closer like Orb, the sloppy track didn’t suit a lot of horses as well as it did Orb, and Joel Rosario was able to find a perfect path through the crowd. There is absolutely nothing wrong with deciding to bet Orb n the Preakness — just make sure that you are doing it because he is the best horse, not just because he won his last race.

A Bad Derby Can Be Overcome

Sometimes a horse with high hopes can have a truly disastrous Derby. Goldencents is a perfect example this year. He needs to be on the lead early on, so when Palace Malice ran away early on, Goldencents chased him. No horse could have held on under that strain, and Goldencents faded to 17th. That doesn’t necessarily mean that he was a horrible, overrated horse. The pace scenario doomed him. On a better day with a more honest pace, Goldencents could again be competitive. History provides plenty of examples of horses that bounce back from a bad Derby to make history in the Preakness. Point Given was horrible in Kentucky in 2001 then dominated the Preakness and the Belmont. Afleet Alex didn’t fire on Derby day in 2005 then won the last two legs. Hansel was the heavy favorite in the 1991 Derby, but he struggled badly and was 10th. He also won the last two legs. There are more, but you get the point.

I’m not saying that Goldencents or Itsmyluckyday or Will Take Charge will win their next two races. I’m just saying you can’t safely assume that they won’t.

Don’t Fall in Love With Fresh Horses

The Preakness is typically made up of a group of horses from the Derby joined by horses that are joining the Triple Crown trail at the second stop. Sometimes those new faces are exceptional runners that are clearly worthy of your attention — like Rachel Alexandra and Bernardini. This year, though, there are no great horses among the newcomers. Govenor Charlie, Departing or Titletown Five are all interesting enough to warrant some consideration. The fact is, though, that if they were good enough to contend with the top horses from the Derby then they would have been entered in the Derby. The Kentucky Derby is the biggest race on the planet, so if you have a shot to win it you usually take it. Fresh horses don’t always — or usually — mean good bets.

Forget About Post Position

The post positions in the Derby are a ridiculously overplayed angle. By now we have hopefully realized that there are many, many factors that are more significant in a race that long and that crazy than where they start. In the Preakness, the post positions matter even less from a handicapping perspective. You might think that the opposite would be true because of the narrower track and shorter distance, but that just hasn’t proven to be the case.

In this race don’t let the post positions turn you off of a horse or push you towards another one.

The Giants have won two of the last three World Series but have been roughly a .500 thus far, trailing the Diamondbacks and Rockies in their own division. No matter. A year ago they were also just a .500 team, trailing the Dodgers the first week of May in 2012.

Two years ago this week Texas was a .500 team sitting in third place in AL West, but wound up as AL Champs in October. Three years ago the Giants were a mediocre 18-15 and went on to win the World Series. Four years ago this week the eventual champion NY Yankees were 15-17. Yes, that’s right, they had a terrible start, before going on a 16-4 run on the way to another pennant.

Five years ago the AL eventual champion Tampa Bay Rays were 10-11, second to last in the AL East, looking up at three teams (Boston, NY, Baltimore) they would soon overtake. The eventual 2007 World Series champion Phillies were 11-11, looking up at the Marlins and Mets in the NL East.

Look at it another way: So who were the division leaders at this time one year ago? Four of the teams were the Indians, Cardinals, Dodgers and Rays. None ended up winning the division with only St. Louis sneaking into the postseason as a Wild Card. The Dodgers finished 8 games behind the eventual champion Giants despite the big late season trade to acquire more talent, while the Indians finished in fourth place at 68-94…so much for that first-place start!

So don’t panic if your team is stumbling and don’t start thinking about printing playoff tickets if your team started 18-7, like the 2013 Red Sox. The biggest flops have been the Blue Jays, Angels, Phillies and Dodgers. But remember that six years ago the Phillies started 1-7 and ended up as NL East champs, while the eventual NL Champion Rockies were 10-16, last place in the NL West at the end of April, and 45-46 at the All Star break.

Eight years ago the Houston Astros started 8-13 and eventually stood at 15-30! They ended up winning the 2005 NL pennant. In 2003, the Florida Marlins started 19-29 and ended up winning the World Series. In 2002, the Angels started 6-14 and wound up winning their first World Series.

Oakland GM Billy Beane once said you spend the first third of the season seeing what you have and evaluating your team. The middle third trying to acquire pieces to fill weak spots, and the final third sitting back and watching the team make a run at the postseason — or not. We are in the first third of the season and there’s a long way to go. General Managers are in the process of evaluating what they have.

In the same way GMs need patience when analyzing baseball, so do handicappers. The Pirates, Rockies, Royals and Red Sox have been the big surprises this season, with improved offenses and pitching. However, consistency over the long haul is the key.

Surprises will emerge over a long season and offer smart bettors good value for their wagering dollar, even with individual players. Pitchers are more susceptible to injuries than any other professional athletes and remember that betting numbers are made based on current and past performance. It can take a while before oddsmakers catch on to a struggling or injured pitcher.

Sometimes kid pitchers can come up from the minors and dazzle, such as we saw the last few years with Edinson Volquez (Reds), Stephen Strasburg (Nationals) and Tim Lincecum (Giants). Things can change quickly, as Volquez is with San Diego this season and Strasburg is back after missing time rehabbing. Even Lincecum is dealing with decreased velocity while not throwing his slider as there are concerns about his health.

Sustaining a surprise start requires talent, depth, line-up balance and good health.

Remember in 2003 the Royals started 17-4, the Mariners started 40-18 and the Diamondbacks were 52-42 at the All Star break. None made the playoffs. Those examples give hope to those teams that are off to struggling starts and should provide caution to teams that are in first place. After all, it’s only May!

The Heat opened their title defense against the Bucks and when you look at the three regular season meetings there was one close game in overtime, and two blowout wins by each team. The conclusion would be an evenly matched series based on that, but we all know it was the biggest mismatch on the NBA playoff calendar.

Yes, the Bucks did blow out Miami back in December, 104-85, but that was more of a fluke. Miami was playing its fourth game in five nights and looked out of gas, losing the turnover battle 20-5. It was the Bucks’ first sellout of the season. Milwaukee, meanwhile, had two full days off and it was the Bucks’ first sellout of the season, who outscored Miami 35-14 in the fourth. Be careful about reading too much into the earlier meetings and look carefully as to reasons and situations.

On the other hand, Chicago and Brooklyn played four close regular season meetings decided by 1, 4, 11 and 2 points. That’s an average of 4.2 points per game difference, then the two split the first two playoff games, so the regular season meetings reflected a fairly even matchup.

A year ago the Lakers and Thunder met in a highly anticipated playoff playoff battle with Kobe Bryant squaring off against Kevin Durant. Yet, it turned out to be a rout as Oklahoma City won in 5 games, including a pair of blowouts. And the only game LA won was 99-96 at home.

Notice that during the regular season the Thunder handled the Lakers very well. The Lakers won a double overtime game, but the Thunder won the first two meetings easily, by 15 and 9 points. And it would have been an impressive 3-game sweep until LA outscoring Oklahoma City 30-14 in the fourth quarter to force overtime. That regular season dominance foreshadowed their one-sided playoff matchup.

So how did the up and coming Clippers fair against the Thunder this season? The first meeting LA lost in overtime at OKC, 117-111, then they lost at home, 109-97 and 108-104. The Thunder owned the Clippers going 3-0 SU/ATS, and if you like to play totals all three games sailed over.

Sometimes a team is missing key players for one or two of the meetings, which can explain why one team did poorly. Or, maybe the losing team played in difficult back-to-back spots. Other times, you may find that a team matches up well against an opponent. If a weaker rebounding team like the Knicks are playing Chicago, examine each regular season battle to see what was more important: Defense? Offense? Or rebounding?

Think back three years ago when LeBron was in Cleveland. The Cavs and Celtics split their season series 2-2, with the Celtics winning in Cleveland on opening night, the Cavs knocking off the Celtics by 20 in Boston in late February, then by 11 at home in mid-March, then losing 117-113 on Easter Sunday after the Cavs effortlessly wiped out a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter.

It was after that last meeting that LeBron proclaimed his dislike for the Celtics afterward: “We don’t like them, and they don’t like us.” All of which sets the stage for a physical series with emotions likely running high.

Another angle is when one team dominates another during the regular season, then the two meet in the playoffs. The public perception is that the team that dominated during the season will easily rout the opponent, but this is not always the case. You may have heard professional bettors speak of the “GAD” theory, or “Go Against the Dominant team” during the postseason. It’s not as simple as betting against the favored team that dominated during the regular season, but it’s something to keep in mind as the playoffs commence.

For instance, a few years ago the Sacramento Kings swept the Utah Jazz during the regular season, going 4-0 straight up and against the spread. The Kings didn’t just win – they rolled! Sacramento won those four regular season meetings by some frightful scores: 113-80, 114-90, 107-81 and 117-109. Utah was no pushover, though, with Stockton and Malone, plus hard driving coach Jerry Sloan. In their first round playoff battle, Utah went 3-0 against the spread in the first three games, even winning Game 2 at Sacramento, 93-86 as an 11-point dog.

The Kings were 12, 11 and 4-point favorites in those first three games, yet failed to cover winning 89-86 in Game 1, losing Game 2, and winning 90-87 in Game 3. During the four regular season meetings, the Kings were 10 and 8 point favorites at Sacramento – but now in the playoffs, they were bumped up to 12 and 11 point chalk – clearly public perception had something to do with that based on the regular season dominance. Utah didn’t give in, even using their 0-4 regular season as a motivating factor.

Two years ago the Dallas Mavericks had a remarkable run to the championship, beating Miami in six games after losing two of the first three. Few recall that during the regular season the Mavericks matched up well, sweeping the Heat, 106-95 and 98-96, 2-0 SU/ATS.

Examine regular season meetings carefully. Be careful of regular season dominance, and take note of injuries, rebounding edges, free throw attempts or when a big dog played the favorite evenly (or better) all season. The real story — and edges against the oddsmakers – can be found in the details.

Look at some recent Super Bowl winners. It was defense that topped offense in January, with the high flying offenses of the Patriots and Falcons losing the Conference Championship games at home to defensive-oriented Ravens and 49ers. The Patriots lost twice to the Giants with the New York defense stepping up and taking charge, holding the Pats explosive, no-huddle attack to 14 and 17 points. You might not remember, but QB Peyton Manning didn’t have a stellar postseason seven years ago when he won his only Super Bowl, with 3 TDs and 7 INTs. The real story for the Colts’ run to the title was their improved defense, especially against the run, that allowed 14 ppg to opposing offenses in the postseason.

Who was the better defensive team in last year’s NBA Finals? Miami ranked fourth in the NBA in points allowed and 5th in field goal shooting defense, while favored Oklahoma City ranked 17th in points allowed. The better defensive team won four in a row after dropping the opener.

Two years ago two of the best defensive teams in the league met as the Mavericks upset the Heat in six games. Three years ago Lakers and Celtics dueled in a defensive series and in 2009 the Lakers held a high scoring Orlando team to 75, 96 (in overtime), 91 and 86 points in four wins.

Michael Jordan may have been best known for his offense, but it was the team’s defense from 1996-98 that netted the Chicago Bulls three straight titles. The same was true for the Lakers during their recent run. Let’s look at Jordan’s Bulls. When Jordan won his last championship in 1998, the Bulls were a great defensive team and notice that Chicago went 13-6-1 in games “under” the total during the 1998 playoffs. In 2003, the Spurs went 15-8-1 “under” the total on their way to winning the title.

Coaches are a big part of this. Memphis Head Coach Lionel Hollins prefers a slow, defensive-style despite a lot of young, athletic talent. Indiana Coach Frank Vogel has gotten his team to play choking defense, tops in the NBA in field goal shooting defense and second in points allowed.

What led the Miami Heat to the NBA title in 2006? Dwyane Wade and defense! The Heat went 10-2 under the total their final 12 playoff games, which concluded with their four-game winning streak over Dallas in the Finals. They were coached by Pat Riley, who understood how important defense and rebounding are.

Six years ago in the Finals, the Spurs swept by holding the Cavaliers to 76, 92, 72 and 82 points. Three of the four games went under the total. The Cavaliers averaged 80 ppg in the Finals, 16 points below their regular season average. One thing that happens is that strong defensive teams play as hard as they can defensively during the regular season a lot of the time, but not always.

Sometimes games are blowouts and teams will coast on defense or have fun trying to score in the fourth quarter, rather than work hard playing defense (which isn’t noticed as much by the fans as is a flashy offensive play). This is human nature, as it’s an 82-game regular season, so it’s difficult and tiring to play all out on defense for six months.

Once the playoffs roll around, however, it’s a different story, as there are fewer one-sided games and opportunities to coast. Since the postseason is so short and every game means something, it’s more likely teams will go all out on defense. In fact, defense has a tendency to get better as the playoffs go along because the games mean more the closer you approach the Finals.

The last eight seasons, the “under” is 91-79 combined in the Eastern/Western Conference Finals and the NBA Finals. Remember that in five of six recent seasons the offensive-minded Suns were knocked out by the Spurs and Mavericks and Miami ran defensive-circles around the Thunder in the Finals. Chalk up more triumphs for defense over offense!

Speaking of the Angels, the “Super Team” already has its own concerns. Last year they were great on offense, and this season the on-base percentage has been strong, it just hasn’t translated into a lot of runs partly because of the struggles of newcomer Josh Hamilton. He’s likely dealing with external pressures, like Albert Pujols did a year ago, joining a new team with all the pressures that comes with a big contract.

It’s the pitching, though, that is the real problem. righty Jered Weaver is out for a while, an irreplaceable ace. That forces C.J. Wilson to move into the No. 1 slot for now, and he’s simply not an ace, a guy who nibbles around the plate and has a tendency to walk batters (he walked 7 in his first 12 innings). That puts pressure on the bullpen to come into games early and gets worse when they have to relieve the other weaker starters in Joe Blanton, Tommy Hanson and Jason Vargas, all newcomers.

It’s also a good time to point out that this is an age of specialization for baseball pitchers. You have starters, closers, middle relievers, long relief, set-up men and lefty specialists. Some pitchers feel more comfortable and excel in the role of set-up man than closer, for example.

It can all seem overwhelming and even silly at times. I recall an interview with a pitcher a few years ago who was asked about what his role would be on the team. He looked strangely at the inquisitor. “A pitcher’s role,” he said, “is to get guys out.” If more hurlers simplified things like that, we might see better pitching league-wide.

Pitchers are a unique breed in the sports world. One thing to keep in mind during the baseball season, especially early on, is that pitchers can perform very differently year to year, for a variety of reasons.

The ballpark can play a role in how good or bad a pitcher is, something to keep in mind with Blanton. He has pitched in Oakland and in the NL, but now is with the Angels, a better hitter’s park. A soft thrower like him is better suited to a big park like Dodger Stadium, Washington or Oakland than most AL parks.

Hard throwers aren’t usually as influenced, such as C.C. Sabathia, who went from Cleveland to the Yankees four years ago and wasn’t affected by the small confines of Yankee Stadium. Remember a decade ago when the Yankees picked up Kevin Brown. Brown went from one of the best pitcher’s park in baseball – Dodger Stadium – to Yankee Stadium and didn’t throw as well. It is a big easiera to go from the AL to the NL and not face the DH, as we saw with Philadelphia ace Roy Halladay in 2010 (league leading 21 wins).

You may recall the careers of pitchers Mike Hampton, Jose Lima and Darryl Kile. All three had great seasons in the Houston Astrodome, then played in much smaller parks the next season and got clobbered. Hampton and Kile went to Coors Field in Colorado, while Lima went from 21-10 in the final year of the Astrodome, to 7-16 with a 6.65 ERA in 2000, the first year Houston moved to its current smaller park.

It’s essential for sports bettors to keep up on moves, parks and injuries like this. Early in the season, betting lines on pitchers can be based largely on what happened last season, and as I’ve outlined, pitchers can vary significantly from year to year.

Injuries, too, can be significant. Randy Johnson went 20-4 with a 2.28 ERA in 1997, then the next season struggled with back trouble and a contract squabble, going 9-10 with a 4.33 ERA in Seattle before they traded him to Houston. There, he went 10-1 with a 1.28 ERA the rest of the season!

After a strong 2011, Josh Beckett struggled badly in Boston last year as age and injuries took a toll, as well as the small AL park. Betting lines are made around the starting pitcher, but be careful – starters don’t always pitch the same from season to season for a variety of reasons.

We all know the favorites don’t waltz to the NBA Finals. Last year San Antonio was a No. 1 seed and up 2-0 on the young Thunder in the NBA Finals. Then, WHAM, Oklahoma City won 5 in a row to take a 1-0 lead in the Finals. Then, WHAM, Miami won 4 in a row to shell-shock wide-eyed OKC.

Even in college we just saw Wichita State make a deep run, and tiny Butler was a fifth seed in 2010 and a No. 8 seed in 2011, advancing to the NCAA Championship game twice. Two years ago the Dallas Mavericks were the No. 4 seed in the West, then knocked off everyone on the way to a surprising title.

There’s another factor that stands out, best summed up in a famous quote: “It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.”

The speaker? Not a famous coach, but Teddy Roosevelt, the 26th President of the United States. The quote was from his speech “Citizenship in a Republic,” but the hard work he was describing about the man “In the Arena” could apply to any NBA star pulling on sneakers and battling for the right to advance to the championship over the next two months.

It takes teamwork and effort, lots of effort, to hoist the crown at the end of a long season. In 2004 and 2008 the Lakers appeared to be the most talented team in the NBA Finals, favored each time, but were knocked around by the hard working Pistons and Celtics, both of whom really earned their rings. Next week I’ll take a look at the best of the West, the conference that has won 10 of the last 14 NBA titles. This week, it’s the best of the East.

Heat:

The defending champs are easily the team to beat, fresh off a 27-game win streak, the second longest in NBA history. Miami is not a good rebounding team, but so what? They weren’t last year, either, and met every challenge in an impressive postseason run.

The Heat is not lacking for star power with 28-year old Lebron James (26.8 ppg, 8 rpg, 6.5 apg), 31-year old Dwyane Wade (21.4 ppg) and 29-year old Chris Bosh (16.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg).

There are very good role players in Udonis Haslem, Shane Battier, Mario Chalmers and newcomer Ray Allen. Miami has exceptional balance, 5th in the NBA in scoring, 7th in points allowed, a flexible, deep team capable of playing any style. The Heat is 10-4 ATS on the road, 7-1 over the total against the Western Conference and 18-7-1 over the total versus the NBA Southwest. Miami is the team to beat again, in the East and for the whole ball of wax.

Bulls:

Will he or won’t he? That’s the waiting game in the Windy City, wondering if star guard Derek Rose will be able to return for the playoffs. Chicago has clearly missed Rose on offense, falling to 29th in the NBA in scoring. They rely on slowing the pace down, rebounding and playing a physical defensive style, 3rd in the league in points allowed.

Chicago is No. 6 in the NBA in rebounds, led by Joakim Noah and hard working Carlos Boozer. The key for the stretch run is to get Rose and Richard Hamilton healthy. The Bulls are 10-24 ATS against the Western Conference and have been money burners at home.

NY Knicks:

New kids on the block? The Knicks feel like they can challenge the Heat in the East but this is anything but a young team on the rise. This veteran group has good balance with 28-year old Carmelo Anthony (27.5 ppg), 27-year old J.R. Smith (17.4 ppg) and 30-year old Amar’e Stoudemire (14 ppg) handling the offense.

Veteran Jason Kidd was brought in and big man Tyson Chandler blocks shots and is a fine defensive roll player up front. But aging teams are prone to more injuries and that has been a problem for this team down the stretch. They just ripped off an impressive 6-0 SU/ATS run. They rely on the three-pointer to carry them too often and note tat Miami is 10th in the NBA at defending on the perimeter.

Pacers:

Indiana certainly has the kind of team to make a terrific postseason run: great defense, rebounding and a big frontcourt. They are tops in the NBA in rebounding and points allowed. 6-9 David West (17 ppg), 6-8 Paul George (17.7 ppg) and 7-2 Roy Hibbert form a dominant front line, while 26-year old PG George Hill (14 ppg) runs the b backcourt.

They can dominate bad teams: The Pacers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, as well as 11-4 under the total against those teams. But will they wilt under the playoff spotlight again? Last year’s flameout to Miami (blowing a 2-1 lead) was embarrassing and the Heat just thumped up again, 105-91, during their win streak.

Many things happen over the course of a long season. Some teams play great basketball in December and January, only to break down from injuries or run out of steam down the stretch. Miami is a good example, starting 22-3 before the national spotlight and a key injury took a toll, losing in the tourney to Marquette, 71-61.

The last two years Missouri started 17-0 before stumbling in midseason, while Villanova won 16 of 17 to start the season, then broke down with injuries and poor play, finishing 3-10 SU, 1-12 ATS. Six years ago Clemson started 17-0, then failed to even make the Big Dance after a 4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS run.
Kansas may have won the title five years ago, but seven years ago it was a very different story: The Jayhawks started 20-1, only to go 3-6 straight up and 1-8 against the spread the last nine games. They never made it to the Final Four because of a 64-63 loss to Bucknell as a 13½-point favorite.
Other times an easy early season schedule, youth, bad coaching, untimely injuries, bad luck, poor team chemistry or a combination of these can cut down a potentially great team. North Carolina suffered from too much youth and not enough defense in an uneven campaign, getting smoked by Duke in the ACC tourney (69-53) and by Kansas in the Big Dance (70-58). Youth and a loss of its best players toppled Florida after winning back-to-back titles and prevented a North Carolina repeat in 2010.

Duke saw its title hopes dashed a year ago in a stunning loss to Lehigh as 11-point chalk, but this is nothing new. Gonzaga was taken down by Wichita this March, and two years ago No. 1 seed Pitt saw its hopes crushed in a loss to Butler, 71-70. A few years ago No. 2 seed Georgetown took itself out of the tournament, blowing a 46-29 lead by trying to stall against Davidson with far too much time left.

It is very easy for sports bettors to look into trends to try and predict the future. Trends can be helpful if there are reasons to support it. For example, from a betting perspective, what stands out about the last nine Finals Fours?

Score – Line

2012
Ohio State 62 – 3
Kansas 64 – 136
Louisville 61 – 136.5
Kentucky 69 -8

2011
Butler 70 – 3.5
VCU 62 – 133
Kentucky 55 – 131
UConn 56 – +2.5

2002:
Indiana 73 – 134
Oklahoma 64 -6½
Maryland 97 – 168
Kansas 88 – -1½

What stands out is that it has been the day of the dog. The underdog is 12-8-1 against the number, with 11 dogs winning straight up. In addition, the games have gone 12-10 “under” the total, although the “under” is 10-4 the last seven years. You can even make an argument that this would be the right time of the college hoops’ season to take a shot with the dog on the money-line. However, this is where one needs patience, because trends can also be a fool’s paradise. The last eight years the favorites are 9-6-1 ATS.

If you go back to the previous three Final Fours before that content analysis, 1999-01, we find Duke topping Maryland 95-84, Arizona blowing out Michigan State 80-61, Michigan State beating Wisconsin 53-41, Florida topping North Carolina 71-59, UConn beating Ohio State 64-58 and Duke surviving Michigan State 68-62. What stands out is that the favorite won and covered in five of six, for a hefty 5-1 spread record.

Even looking at totals, a similar pattern emerges. The last 11 years the “over/under” has been almost equal, 12-10 under in the Final Four. The three years before that the “under” prevailed at a 5-1 clip. All of a sudden, those who look solely at trends as the key to the sports betting kingdom are stuck at close to a .500 winning percentage ATS.

For the record, going back the last 16 years, there have been 22 “unders” and 14 “overs” in the Final Four, with 18 dogs covering while 17 favorites have gotten the money with one push. Again, trends are worth examining, but there needs to be reasons behind them if you’re serious about putting down hard earned money on a side. Perhaps the most significant stat that stands out is that 15 of the 18 dogs that covered ended up winning the game outright, which shows how competitive and relatively evenly matched the games become when teams get this far in the season.

New York Yankees

As much as people want to write off the Yankees it’s difficult not seeing this team making the post-season. The pitching is solid with one of the best starters and closers in the game in CC Sabathia and Mariano Rivera. The Bronx Bombers will be loaded offensively as well. They display speed and power in players such as Ichiro, Cano, Teixeira, Granderson, and Gardner. A couple big questions facing this team is how will Youkilis fill in for Rodriguez and how will Jeter fair after coming back from ankle surgery? There is no doubt the Yankees are aging but they more than likely will be in the post-season once again.

Toronto Blue Jays

After a busy off-season the Blue Jays have added the players they need to become a serious contender. The addition of R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle is a great 1-2-3 punch to their pitching rotation. Offensively they have added Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera to a lineup that already features Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. If Cabrera can produce like he did for the Giants before his suspension for testing positive for testosterone then the Jays will look like geniuses for signing him. As long as this team stays healthy they are definitely a contender.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are the best bet to represent the American League in the World Series once again. The line up will get some power back with Victor Martinez set to return after his knee injury. Detroit also signed Torii Hunter in free agency. Hunter is coming off a 2012 that saw him hit a career high .313. The Tigers also boast what is arguably the deepest rotation in baseball lead by Justin Verlander. With a top leadoff man in Austin Jackson and slugger Prince Fielder the offense will be good. Oh yeah, don’t forget about Triple Crown and MVP winner Miguel Cabrera. If the Tigers can solve the closer situation they will be dominant.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have shown that they are not afraid to spend money on players to improve their roster. Last year they paid big bucks to add Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. This year Josh Hamilton was paid top dollar. However, there is no doubt this team underachieved in 2012. Expect things to change in 2013. Adding Hamilton to the mix with Pujols and MVP runner up and Rookie of the Year Mike Trout will improve the lineup. The big issue for this team will be the bullpen. They blew 22 saves last year which was tied for third in all of baseball. They hope the addition of Ryan Madson will solve that problem. Madson, though, has not pitched in over a year and is coming off of Tommy John surgery. The bullpen will still remain a question mark but the offense and a solid starting rotation will make this team a playoff contender.

Texas Rangers

Sure the Rangers lost Josh Hamilton in the offseason and didn’t make a big free agent splash but there is just too much talent on this team to count them out. The roster still consists of numerous All-Stars including three in the rotation. Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus are great up the middle and Nelson Cruz provides the power. Don’t count the Rangers out as they will be there in the end knocking on the playoff door.