Free NFL Pick: Panthers at Patriots

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Featured Free NFL Pick | Matt Fargo

Play on New England Patriots -13.5

Game Analysis: The Patriots are coming off a loss on Sunday, which was their second straight loss and that in itself is a rarity. New England has lost back-to-back games for the first time since 2006 when it lost two straight home games to the Colts and Jets. It has not lost three straight games since 2002 when it actually dropped four in a row so you can see what a rarity this actually is. Both of these recent losses have come on the road and that is the way it has been this season as the home team is 11-1 in Patriots games this season, which includes New England being a perfect 6-0 at home and the one road win for New England actually came in a neutral field in London. Three weeks ago, the division title was looking like it was going back to the Patriots but that is not the case anymore as both the Dolphins and Jets are just a game back with four to go. Carolina was able to recover from its loss in New York with a win against Tampa Bay last Sunday but the season is pretty much done barring some sort of miraculous finish. The Panthers beat the Buccaneers despite getting outgained by 160 total yards so the 10-point victory is very misleading. Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman threw five interceptions including two inside the Panthers redzone so this game easily could have gone the other way. That outcome however presents us with some line value as Carolina hits the road again. The Panthers have been outgained in four of their last five games and it is unlikely that will get turned about here as New England is in a must win game and in a spot looking for some payback. Miami is one of the best running teams in football but netted only 88 yards on 27 carries (3.3 ypc) against New England and the Patriots will have to keep that stout rushing defense going against the Panthers. Carolina was without DeAngelo Williams against Tampa Bay but still managed 157 yards rushing on 33 carries (4.8 ypc). Of course Tampa Bay is one of the worst defenses in stopping the run as it is 29th in the NFL while the Patriots are a much more respectable 15th in rushing defense. The blame went to the secondary against the Dolphins as Chad Henne ended up putting together a great game with 335 yards through the air. New England is not that bad at all against the pass as it is 13th in the league but it has had it blowups which have come at the wrong times and mostly on the road. The Patriots are allowing only 158.0 ypg and 5.5 ypa in their six home games and will be going up against Matt Moore who was decent against Tampa Bay but he threw the ball only 20 times and he will see a much tougher defense this weekend. After losing to a division rival as a favorite, the Patriots are 9-1 ATS in their 10 games following that under head coach Bill Belichick with the average scoring differential being over two touchdowns in those games. If there is a game that New England is going to go all out this is the one as it needs to regain its form before going to Buffalo next week which is actually a big game as far as tiebreaking implications go. The home rout will be on Sunday. 3* New England Patriots

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