Florida Marlins at Chicago Cubs Free Pick
Posted April 30, 2009 by Steve Janus
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Play on Chicago Cubs -110 at 5Dimes
Game Analysis: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Cubs as they square off against the Marlins. Supporting this graded play is a series of strong game dependent angles. Note that Chicago has become a very good investment in specific roles. Note that they are 15-5 (+9.5 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons; 37-13 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 23-10 (+11.7 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. Florida starter Volstad is off to a solid start this season, but this matchup against the Cubs simply does not favor him at all. He has allowed a 316 BA in the respective careers of the Cubs players. Volstad throws a variety of pitches and does not rely on his FB for first pitch strikes. Problem is that it is far more difficult to throw a curve for a strike than a FB. The Cubs are a patient hitting team and will look to work the count and make him throw pitches in order to get to a favorable hitter’s count. On the first pitch, he throws FB 69% of the time, curve 24%. When behind in the count he throws FB 77%, curve 11%, and change 8%. Curve balls must be hit the opposite way and the Cubs have many hitters on their roster than truly excel – like Manny does – in going the opposite way consistently. Take the Cubs.
Categories: Free Picks, MLB | Tags: chicago cubs, florida marlins, free baseball picks
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