Penn State Chasing 2011 Big Ten Football Championship

Legendary Joe Paterno and the Nittany Lions enter 2011 off a mediocre 7-6 campaign ending with a 37-24 loss to Florida in the Outback bowl. Since 2005 Penn State has averaged 9.67 wins per campaign. In that mix the Blue and White earned three 11 win seasons. With 45 returning letterman, we look for the Nits to challenge for the Big Ten title. Go inside for our season preview and the point spread possibilities.

Coaching

Don’t become alarmed, but Joe Paterno does not have a contract extending past 2011. But, when you’re a legend and the #1 college coach in history, the money and paper requirements will be just a formality at some point in time. Paterno (401-135-3) takes his Lions into this season with high expectations. Fortunately, the OC (Galen Hall) and DC (Tom Bradley) remain as stellar coaches who truly direct the game on the field. Remarkable is the story following Bradley who has been at Mount Nittany for 33 seasons. Joe Pa is blessed with his current staff.

Scheduling

Seemingly, there is normalcy to the Penn State schedule for 2011. The keys in reverse order, include late season encounters with Big Ten rivals Wisconsin and Ohio State. If that doesn’t accrue alumni and fan interest, maybe the September 10^th war with Alabama at Beaver Stadium will generate your excitement. Last season the Nits visited Alabama on the Tuscaloosa playground for a huge intersectional jaunt after defeating 1-AA Youngstown State 44-14 up in Happy Valley. The result was not pretty as the Tide ran through Lions for a 24-3 victory. The on field bleeding was executed through a staggering running attack (180) that averaged 5.3 yards per carry with the ‘Bama total offensive numbers hitting over 400 yards on the day.

The 2011 schedule sets up in similar manner as State face 1-AA Indiana State in game #1, then the Tide rolls in the very next week. If you’ve been asleep this summer, Alabama has been ranked #1 going into the season via many publications. At ESPN College Live, the Tide ushers in the #2 berth behind Oklahoma (#1) who is fast becoming the popular BCS choice. Still the ‘Bama and Nittany Lions football game, along with LSU and Oregon seem to be can’t miss standards for the September national stage.

After the Alabama tilt the Lions face Temple, Eastern Michigan and Indiana, all can’t lose sets for Paterno. Inside the Big Ten schedule, Penn State battles Iowa, Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska all at Beaver Stadium! This handicapper feels the last two road games at Ohio State (November 19^th) and Wisconsin (November 26^th) are must win situations that will most likely decide the conference. One new twist to the schedule is the Big Ten Championship game in early December at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis).

Team

The Lions, pending injuries and academic issues, will have at least 15 returning starters, 7 on offense and 8 defensively. Despite losing Evan Royster (1,042) their top rusher and Brett Bracket (525) the #2 receiver, the offense has enough scoring options, especially if RB Stephton Green returns successfully from knee surgery. Also, we fully expect sophomore RB Silas Reed (461) to make some forget about the abilities of Royster. The receiving group is solid, but the question must be answered as to who will be throwing down field? At quarterback, the Bolden and McGloin controversy is heating up as we write. In fact, sophomore QB Rob Bolden has entered summer school, so all the rumors circulating about his transfer were??? During the horrible Blue-White game, the Lions quarterbacks completed just 5 passes, 5 for McGloin and 0 for Bolden. It should be noted it was windy and rainy which precipitated the horrible performances. With three starters returning to the offensive line, the Lions will need to establish their QB for a successful offensive season. The points scored production went from 28.8 in 2009 to 24.5 to 2010. When Penn State carved out an 11-2 season in 2008, the unit produced 38.9 points per game, but now show a depreciation factor of 14.4 points in association with the 2010 marks. The major problem last season on defense was the inability to stop the run. Penn State gave up over 100 yards rushing in ten games, allowing 4.5 yards per carry up from 2.8 yards per carry in 2009. The front seven this year brings seven upper classman. I expect much improvement overall from Bradley’s defense. The special teams unit should field a productive unit, but not at the kicking position where Collin Wagner graduated. Wagner was automatic from 49 yards in and perfect in extra points (38-38). At this writing, I will stand by our forecast of quite possibly a Big-10 Title, but it’s a fine line of judgment considering Wisconsin and Ohio State are road blocks in the LEADERS DIVISION.

Against The Spread

Since 2001 the Lions have been meager winners in Vegas with a 62-58-1 ATS record. However, as a chalk on foreign soil, PSU is hitting a super 90% ATS (9-1). They will be favored versus Temple, Indiana and Northwestern, the Ohio State and Wisconsin games, though, are questionable. Last year, we forecasted Temple (+14) plus up at Happy Valley. We must note the Lions had Iowa on-deck, so the outcome was understated. Penn State comes to Lincoln Financial Field and that means a recruiting trip for Joe Pa in the City of Philadelphia. Temple with their new coach will be at risk, if PSU loses to Alabama. Later in the season and off a bye week, the Nits face Nebraska in State College. The Huskers, seemingly, have more natural talent than PSU, but the key will be the effectiveness of ‘Huskers QB Martinez who is a level above Bolden, McGloin or Jones. So, we estimate a win and cover for Nebraska.