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Featured Free MLB Pick | Matt Fargo

PITTSBURGH PIRATES/CINCINNATI REDS OVER 9 (-115)

Game Analysis: We come out with a rare totals play for Monday in this spot. Pittsburgh is coming off a five-game homestand where the last four games were all low scoring and stayed below the number. That will point people toward another ‘Under’ play here however looking at the contrarian side, the Pirates can easily break out on offense and we get some value in the total that was released based on the recent results. On the other side, the Reds are coming off a five-game roadtrip where the first four games went ‘Over’ with yesterday’s game staying below the number even it was a game that easily could have, and arguably should have, gone ‘Over’ as well. Cincinnati is hitting .296 over its last 10 games so momentum is on its side for the offense to continue rolling along. The Pirates send Brian Burres to the hill and he has been either really good or really bad. In two starts against the Cubs and Giants he allowed 11 runs in eight innings while in three other starts against the Cubs, Brewers and Dodgers, he allowed three runs in 18 innings. Which Burres do we get tonight? I think we will see the former since those two bad starts both came on the road and throughout his career, he has not shown enough consistency to prove eh can put together back-to-back quality outings. He has actually done that only three times in his career, covering 46 starts. He goes up against Aaron Harang who is having troubles of his own. He has been up and down all year and his last two starts were nearly identical as he allowed four runs on eight hits in six innings against the Cardinals and Braves. He has a 6.02 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the season those numbers jump to a 6.82 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in six starts under the lights. The ‘Over’ is 7-2 in the Pirates last nine road games against teams with a winning record while the ‘Over’ is 4-1-1 in the Reds last six home games against teams with a losing record. 3* Over Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds

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