Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres Free Pick

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*Today’s Featured Free MLB Pick from Big Al McMordie*

Play on Cincinnati Reds +140 at 5DIMES

Game Analysis: At 4:05pm our free selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the San Diego Padres. Which version of righthanded veteran starter Bronson Arroyo will show up this afternoon for the Reds? The one who shut down the Pirates over eight shutout innings to start the month, or the one who gave up nine earned runs, not once, but twice this season! It should be the “good” Arroyo as the 10-year veteran has wrested the title of biggest home-away pitching bias in the Major Leagues from guys like Wandy Rodriguez and Jamie Shields (However, Arroyo is pitching MUCH BETTER ON THE ROAD than at home). It’s very strange to see someone with a strong record like Arroyo’s (5-2) but with an ERA over seven runs. However, Arroyo is on the road for this game, and he is also at one of the strongest pitchers parks in baseball — and a place where he has had success throughout his career. He did well against the Padres last season, going 2-0 against them in 2008 with a 3.38 ERA. Jake Peavy’s record is the opposite of Arroyo’s (2-5), and his ERA, while well under seven runs, is still uncharacteristically high for this former Cy Young winner. Unlike Arroyo, who has gotten plenty of help from his teammates, Peavy has had terrible run support, as evident in his last home start, which was one of his best of the season (and his highest strikeout total — 12 over seven innings). Despite this dominating pitching performance, Peavy took the loss in front of the home crowd. Of course, that’s one of the big differences between these two teams: San Diego’s offense is weak, while Cincinnati can put up plenty of runs. Take the Reds as a nice-sized underdog here. As always, good luck…Al McMordie.