Now that the General Managers meetings have concluded, the free agency activity may start to pick up ahead of the Winter Meetings set for the week of December 6.

Other than discussion of an expanded playoff format, the only news to come out of the GM meetings was actually a no response from Phillies GM Ruben Amaro. When asked how the talks for retaining Jason Werth were coming along he talked about the great accomplishments of Raul Ibanez almost completely avoiding the real question. Werth is represented by super star sports agent Scott Boras, who has been reluctant to have any real discussions about his client with any team. It appears that Amaro and the Phillies are moving on immediately without Werth so that they do not get caught without any significant moves to bolster their outfield. The Phillies hold the most chips at this table since they can attract the best available players so it will be interesting to see how Boras plays this hand out.

Carlos Quinten
One such move has interest targeted on Chicago White Sox right fielder Carlos Quinten. He batted .243, but had 26 home runs and 87 RBI in 131 games played. He started in RF 104 games, was DH 24 games, and pinch hit five times. He struggles against right handed pitchers though and hit 20 of the 26 home runs off of left handed pitchers. He made $3.2 million in 2010 so obviously he will come at a far cheaper price then what Scot Boras is attempting to get Werth.

Cliff Lee
There has been no meaningful news to report on starting pitcher Cliff Lee, but news out of New York City reports that the management and Derek Jeter are far apart from making a deal. It is not necessarily the price tag per season, but that Jeter wants five+ years on the contract. This is a sure sign that the Yankees are trying every possible angle to free up money to sign Lee to a 5+ year contract. Add in the resigning of Rivera and the Yankees, surprisingly, may not be able to get Lee on their team.

That is why it is a dangerous game that Boras is playing with Werth. If the Yankees dropped out of the Lee race, then it would bring in several teams like Boston and Philadelphia back into the Lee sweepstakes and would have an immediate devaluation of what could be paid for Werth. Texas would be the leader for Lee at that point hands down.

Red Sox seeking Bullpen help
There are at least six teams willing to make real offers for the services of Red Sox short stop Marco Scutaro and this would open up even more money for them to bolster their bullpen. Specifically, the Reds, Cardinals, Padres, and Pirates have big needs at the short stop position and they have the middle relief that Boston would be looking for to setup Bard and the Palpelbon. The addition of Werth and solid middle reliever would immediately make the Red Sox one of the favorites again in the AL East.

Zack Greinke isn’t going anywhere
There have been some talk that Zack Greinke would be offered in a blockbuster trade, but the reported asking prices are not realistic. Certainly doesn’t hurt to ask in these days where aces are commanding huge trade value. Yet, KC is known for having an abundance of solid AAA prospects, especially outfielders, so it is a bit of a head scratcher to think the Royals would part with a former Cy Young award winner.

In the National league the most intriguing Division looks to be the NL West. The San Diego Padres currently hold a two game lead over both the Colorado Rockies and the LA. Dodgers. The Padres are certainly the most balanced team, combining fine pitching and some clutch hitting thus far this season. They also have the best road record at 24-18. They will be tough to beat. However they may get their most serious challenge from the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have the best starting pitching in the Division led by T. Lincecum and M. Cain. If the Giants can add a bat to go with their stellar pitching they would stand the best chance in this division. The Dodgers need to pick up more pitching to be a factor. Colorado is a battle tested bunch, and has much sucess over the past few years. They are a solid hitting group led by Cy young candidate Ubaldo Jimenez. However even with Jimenez and his lights out first half the Rockies have had inconsistent stretches and will have to improve a road record that is 5 games under 500. The Giants to rally from the 4 game defecit are the pick to win the NL West.

Moving to the NL East we have what looks to be a three team race between Division leading Atlanta, an upstart Mets team and the defending champion Phillies. Atlanta has surprised many in manager Bobby Cox final season, forging to the front with one of the best starting pitching corps in the league. Tim Hudson has regained his form of years past and now they will have J. Jurjens back and healthy for the second half. Atlanta also has a bright young star in J. Heyward and will be tough to unseat this year. The Mets are the surprise team this season as they have finally used their new park to their advantage, compiling a solid 30-16 mark. However they have been subpar on the road and have been the victims of several walk off losses this season. The Good news is they have the best second half starting pitcher in baseball the past few years in Johan Santana, who has compiled an impressive 63-19 record in the second half the past few years. He has already won his first 2 starts of the second half this season going into the break on a 16 inning scoreless streak. The Phillies come in seven games over .500 and have played lethargic at times this year drawing the ire of manager C. Manuel who has accused them of playing like fat cats. If the Philles can get healthy they are more than capable of putting together a monster second half to win this division, especially with ace R. Hallady leading the way. In the end the Braves will emerge victorious,sending Bobby Cox out with one last NL East Pennant.

The National league Central appears to be a 2 horse race with the Cincinnati Reds holding a slim one game lead over the St.Louis Cardinals. The Brewers and Cubs appear to be done and look hard pressed to even make a wild card run at this point. The Reds have over achieved this season and have been bolstered by former Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty. The Reds are notorious for fading in the second halves the past few seasons and come limping into the break off a 4 game sweep at the hands of the Phillies. The losses were ugly with one being a 6 run comeback in the ninth inning by a never say die Phillies team. This could spell trouble for the Reds as they try to hold off an experienced and talented St.Louis team, that with one or 2 minor acqusitions could easily win this Division. The Cards have better starting pitching led by Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals are the pick to overcome a slight one game deficit.

In the American League the most competitve division in the AL. Central. The Chicago Whitesox enter the break with a slight half game lead over the Detroit Tigers and lead the Minnesota Twins by 3.5 games. Chicago is truly on a tear having won 8 straight and 25 of their last 30 games. However for all their accolades they are barely in front and will likely drop back some as soon as their win streak tails off. The Tigers are the ultimate home to road dichotomy team this year. Detroit has been light out at home with a league best 32-13 record. However they are horrendous on the road with just 16 wins, better than just 2 other teams. Detroit will have to prove they can win on the road and play more consistently to win this division. The Minnesota Twins have struggled of late, falling almost 4 games behing the pace. However they have the most talent and if they can pick up a starting pitcher should have the fire power to win this division. They have plenty of recent post season experience to rely on when the games get real competitive at the end of the season. The Twins are the pick to rally and win the division.

The American league East has an interesting race. The Yankees lead by two games over a hot Tampa Bay team that opened up on fire, than faltered relinquishing the lead to the Yankees. The Yankees are the defending World Series champions and will be tough to catch here. They have a plethora of pitching. Even though they were outbid for Cliff Lee they have more than enough pitching and hitting to win this division. Robinson Cano has MVP like numbers and Andy Pettite a career second half pitcher have been lights out. Look for A-Rod and AJ. Burnett to have a big second halfs to propel the Yankees. Tampa may sneek in as a wild card. They have the second best record in baseball headed into the break. However they must hit much better in the second half and continue to pitch well to have a chance. The Boston Redsox have been hit hard by the injury bug all year. Though they have been decimated by injuries they have held their head above water. They are 14 games over .500 at the break. J. Beckett appears set to return. However they will have much to do if they are going to make up 5 games on the Yankees. Look for New York to win the AL East.

Last, but not leas the AL. West. The Texas Rangers appear to be the now team. They just acquired the best pitcher on the market in Cliff Lee. Even with a four game home sweep by last place Baltimore, heading into the break. They still enjoy a 4.5 game lead over last years AL West winning LA. Angels. Texas has a big hitting team once again this season. If their pitching holds up they look like a good bet to win this division. The Angels are barely holding their heads above water at 3 games over .500. They have been ultra streaky this season. They used a big win streak to get them back into the race. Recently they have been going backwards having lost 8 of their last 10 games. With all the losses in free agency, it appears they do not have the talent to make it happen this year. Oakland has played well in spots and may do well in the second half, but it wont be easy to catch Texas. Look for the Rangers to win the AL West.

In Closing the 2010 season has been more pitcher friendly this season, and the Division races appear to be more competitive with less run away and hide winners we are used to seeing at the All Star break. In the American League The Yankees, Rangers and Twins are the projected winners. In the National League the Braves, Cardinals and Giants are the selection.

Whichever team you root for, enjoy the rest of the season and good luck with all your wagering endeavors.

RV

Rob Vinciletti is a sports wagering consultant and founder of Golden Contender Sports Consulting. Rob is having a Huge MLB Season currently 25 games over .500 in bases, with no heavy favorites. Rob uses Cutting edge MLB Diamond Cutter systems that are tearing up bases and, simply not available any where else. Check out Rob daily for free winners and valuable insight. You can also listen to Rob and get a free pick on Monday nights at 8:05 eastern, on the weekly sports talk radio show “The Bandbox” hosted by Anthony Pierno on 88.9 Wsia.fm. RV

Take for instance Friday, July 9th’s Boston (50-36) at Toronto (43-44) match-up, where Boston (-135) was slightly favored on the road. Both teams started their ace southpaws, with Toronto sending Ricky Romero (6-5) to the mound and Boston starting John Lester (10-3). The general public might look at these starting pitchers and see that Ricky Romero is an impressive 4-1 (80%) at home this season and the Boston Red Sox are barely above the Mendoza Line, at 15-12 (55%) when facing a left-handed pitcher. A quick glance at those numbers may have an inexperienced bettor jumping on home dog Toronto and wondering why they are in the dog role. However, further research indicates that Toronto is a horrible 1-4 (20%) against Boston when Romero starts on the mound. Even worse, Romero is 0-3 (0%) at home against this Boston squad and has been knocked out in 5 innings or less in each of these 3 home starts, while allowing 19 Hits for 14 Earned Runs in just 12 Innings Pitched! Using Romero’s numbers against Boston, a sharp player realizes that the Red Sox, even as road favorites, offer tremendous betting value.

Those cagey players were not surprised when Boston was leading 10-0 at the end of 3 innings, after shelling Ricky Romero once again for 10 Earned Runs. After knocking Romero out of the game after the 3rd inning and forcing Toronto to go to their bullpen much earlier than usual, Boston continued their route and eventually won the game 14-3. The Sox easy victory dropped Romero to 0-4 (0%) at home against Boston and proved to be a nice score for sharp bettors.

Carlo Campanella cashed on Boston’s 14-3 victory over Toronto on Friday, as his “AL Pitching Mismatch of the Month.” That victory improved the Iron Horse to 10-4 with his last 14 Guaranteed picks at Vegas Experts. Don’t miss his next guaranteed winner!

The Tampa Bay Rays have had a terrific season, with the best record on the road. Many will look at their pitching, which is a factor, but less credit is given to their speed, tops in the AL in stolen bases. When a team with speed plays on the road, they don’t have to adjust their game to the size of the park. Small parks like Tampa, Fenway and Yankee Stadium may be easy to hit home runs in, but big parks like in Oakland are tough for hitters. However, if you have speed on the bases, none of that matters.

A few years ago I recall the NY Mets struggling badly as they got off to an embarrassing start despite a ton of money dished out for stars like Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. The Mets had Jose Reyes as a leadoff hitter. Despite a decent batting average, in his first 14 at bats he had zero walks. The previous season, in 220 plate appearances for the Mets he had 5 walks! That’s ridiculous. I don’t care if this guy is faster than Vince Coleman and Willie McGee combined, his on base percentage was a joke and he didn’t belong anywhere near the top of the order. You need to have guys get on base at the top of the order, more so than speed. A lack of on base capability will choke your offense. By contrast, a good on base percentage player WITH speed is the best of all leadoff hitters, such as Ichiru.

The Red Sox have won two World Series the last five years with excellent speed/on base percentage leadoff hitters like Johnny Damon and Jacoby Ellsbury. A good leadoff batter is an extremely valuable part of the makeup of a team. Look at the Cubs, a team that has fizzled the last few years despite great pitching and powerful home run lineups. One season their leadoff batter was Corey Patterson, a guy with power, but lousy at getting on base.

Speed also enhances defense in the outfield, something that is often overlooked. A speedy outfielder will run down fly balls that might otherwise be hits, which decreases the amount of pitches a hurler has to throw. A quick one, two, three inning versus a 39-pitch inning is a huge difference for a pitcher – not just one game, but the next few. Defense and speed helps the starting and relief staff as well as the offense. Be careful wagering on teams with flawed leadoff hitters or a lack of speed/defense in the outfield, especially if they’re a favorite playing in a big park. Speed can be a very important part of the makeup of a team.

Two years ago the Tigers started the season losing 7 straight games, despite being favored in the first 5! The Angels went 14-1 under the total that May when their offense was banged up. Last year the Florida Marlins started 11-1 before going in a massive funk, not even coming close to the postseason.

There will be all kinds of streaks over the course of a 162-game season: Consecutive shutout innings thrown by pitchers, a batter hitting safely in X number of games, or consecutive saves by a closer. You will see 10-game win streaks, 10-game losing streaks, pitchers ripping off 7-straight wins, teams losing 4-straight one-run games. All these add to the excitement and interest in the game.

From a betting perspective, streaks need to be approached with a careful eye and a cautious head. Playing against “the law of averages” is no way to wager.  For example, some bettors think, “This team has won nine in a row, therefore it is time to bet against them, as they are due for a losing streak.” This doesn’t work in the world of eleven-to-ten. In 2004, the Boston Red Sox played close to .500 baseball much of the season from May through mid-August. Starting on August 16, the Sox won six in a row.

If you supported the law of averages, you might conclude that the Sox would be due for several losses and bet against them. In fact, they did lose, 3-0 to Toronto ending that streak – only to then go on a ten-game win streak. When that streak ended, they won nine of the next 12 games. The “anticipated” losing streak never arrived. Simply put, the law of averages can’t predict what is going to happen the next game, or the next ten games.

Many expected the Tigers to turn it around after their bad April of 2008 figuring they were too talented to keep playing sloppy ball, but they never got hot. Some teams can slip out of a funk that had gone on for months, as the 2004 Red Sox did, and begin to play very well, while others do not.  In fact, that is the point – there are almost always tangible reasons why a team goes on hot or cold streaks, more so than the law of averages.

The 2004 Red Sox had improved their defense by adding several players at the trading deadline, including SS Orlando Cabrera. It took a few weeks, but the improved defense and attitude was real and they showed it by playing winning ball on the field the rest of the season. The 2008 Tigers started poorly because of weak defense and pitching injuries. The Angels 14-1 under the total streak was not a fluke – the offense was decimated by injuries and the pitching staff was magnificent.

Sometimes injuries can play a role, especially if an ace pitcher is out, and other times teams go into a collective hitting or pitching slump. Think about the talented 2007 NY Mets. They ended the year 5-12, blowing the division lead to the Phillies. If you had bet on them the last week with the reasoning, “They’re too good to keep playing this bad,” you would have lost your shirt when they went 1-6 against the Nationals and Marlins, two of the worst teams in baseball.

Think about the talented Phillies offense last month going in the tank while getting shut out in four of five games. If you had played the over or wagered on them reasoning that they HAD to bust out offensively, you would have lost as they were in the middle of a 7-1 run under the total.

Remember the start of the 1988 season when the Baltimore Orioles lost their first 21 games? Sports bettors playing the law of averages hoping the Orioles “were due to win” blew out their betting bankrolls before May 1st. Overall, it is better to ride a hot team or continue to bet against a cold team, than to rely on the law of averages and bet the other way.

Hot Starters:

Chris Carpenter (3-0, 34 IP, 1.85 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 40K’s)

Carpenter was a regular on our list last year, but I am going to mention why you may not want to back him on Thursday. First and for most they are -270 and the value is just not with them. Also Houston sends a struggling Norris to the mound who in his career is 3-0 with 0 ER vs. the Cardinals in 3 starts last year.

Carpenter though should be dominant against an Astros team hitting .195 and scoring 2.72 runs per 9 in their last 5 vs. RHP. Carpenter in 3 starts in 2009 was 1-2 vs. the Astros, but had a 1.96 ERA in 23 IP. Houston has a .237 average in a combined 139 AB. This will be an early day start, and that is where Carpenter has dominated. He has a 1.39 day ERA this year and a 2.00 ERA during day starts in 2009 in 11 starts compared to his 2.41 ERA at night in 17 starts. Cardinals also have Carpenter on 5 days rest where they are 26-6 in his last 32 starts on 5 days.

Houston on the other hand has really struggled vs. RH pitching going 17-38 in their last 55. They do seem to play with some grit when they are big time dogs going an incredible 7-3 in their last 10 games as a +201 or higher under dog. If anything I think we can expect a pitchers duel because both teams really haven’t been hitting this year combined as the Astros rank 30th in runs scored per game while the Cardinals are 20th.

Josh Johnson (3-0, 33 IP, 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 37K’s)

Johnson has owned the Mets up until opening day this year where he got the loss giving up 4 ER in 5 IP. Before that he was 7-0 vs. the Mets with a 2.30 ERA in 9 career starts including a 2.14 ERA and 4-0 record at home vs. the Mets. He’ll try to rebound from his last start against the Mets and now is a good time because the Mets have been hot and cold. Marlins are not a bad play given who they have on the mound, but the Mets counter with Santanna.

Johan is 6-1 with a career 1.66 ERA vs. the Marlins and the Marlins really have not started to his so if anything here I would bet on the under. Mets on the road this year have gone 4-8 though and are hitting just .212 against RHP on the road averaging 3.29 runs per 9. The Marlins will look to expand on their success behind their ace as they are 23-5 in his last 28 starts on 4 days rest.

Honorable Mention L5 Starts

Johnathan Sanchez (2-2, 31.2 IP, 2.56 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 34K’s)
C.J. Wilson (3-1, 34.2 IP, 1.82 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)
Zach Greinke (0-3, 34 IP, 2.12 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)

Cold Starters:

Bud Norris (1-3, 23.2 IP, 7.23 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 30K)

You have heard it already with Norris earlier in this article and his success against the Cardinals in three career starts. Add in the fact that his stats are bound to turn around given that he has 30 K’s in his last 5 starts in 23.2 IP. On the season he has 33K’s in 26 IP. Last year he had an ERA below 5 with 54K’s in 55.2 IP.

Cardinals have an average of .227 in 44 career AB vs. Norris. If you like a value play this game is bound to be close and a pitchers duel. The Astros are big time dogs and play hard when they are going 7-3 in their last 10 as +200 or greater. Do note he is going against arguably the best pitcher behind Roy Halladay in baseball in Chris Carpenter.

Ice Cold:

Ben Sheets (2-3, 25.2 IP 7.36 ERA)

Hot Starters:

Matt Cain (2-1, 32 IP, 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP)

Cain started out slow this year but has really turned the lights on especially in his last three starts where he has a 1.80 ERA. That’s not as good as his opponent in Clayton Richard, but the Padres will be a hard opponent especially for Cain. The Giants are just 3-11 in Cain’s last 14 starts vs. the Padres as they have a .305 combined average in 131 at bats with a .872 OPS.

However, good news for Cain as he had 6 IP and 2 ER already vs. the Padres this year. Cain also has a 2.37 ERA in three starts at home this year. Last year he had a 2.72 ERA at home in 17 game starts. SD on the other hand is only 13-39 in their last 52 vs. a starter with a WHIP under 1.15. The Giants are 12-4 in their last 16 as a home favorite with Cain on the mound. My opinion is that I would lay off this game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line move off the public and heading towards the dog. I wouldn’t bet it.

John Danks (3-1, 35 IP, 2.06 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)

Danks has just been great this year with a season ERA at 1.98. He’ll make a day start where he had an ERA of 3.21 in 2009. Normally you have to be happy backing a LH starter against a heavy hitting lefty oriented line up, but the Twins have killed LH pitching this year. In fact the Twins at home against LH pitching have a .295 average and are averaging 6.32 runs per 9 innings vs. LHP.

Danks though has been great and even against the Twins last year was okay with a 3.86 ERA over 5 starts including a 4.13 ERA @ Minny, but they were all losses in 3 starts. White Sox are just 7-21 in their last 28 trips to Minnesota while Minnesota is one of the leagues best home teams going 21-7 in their last 28. If anything back Minnesota who you’ll get value on because of Danks and Pavano on the other side. Pavano though in 3 career starts vs. the White Sox has a 2.42 ERA. in 2009.

Honorable Mention L5 Starts

David Price (3-1, 34.2 IP, 1.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP)
Jered Weaver (3-1, 32 IP, 2.53 ERA, 1.06 WHIP)
Phil Hughes (4-0, 32 IP, 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP)

Cold Starters:

Edwin Jackson (0-3, 27.1 IP, 8.23 ERA, 1.79 WHIP)

What happened to Edwin Jackson? This is a guy who in 33 starts in the American League with the Tigers had a 3.62 ERA. Well we may find out on Wednesday if Jackson can pitch like he did in his last start. Jackson went 7 strong innings giving up just 2 ER in his last start and he’ll hope to continue that against the Dodgers and Huroki Kuroda.

The Dodgers won’t be easy, but it is pondering to see the Dodgers as small favorites considering how awful Jackson has been with a 14.18 ERA over his last three starts overall. The Dodgers are 19-6 in Kuroda’s last 25 starts as a favorite -110 to -150, but this line really confuses me. Especially with Jackson on the mound and a bullpen that has an 11.05 ERA in his last 3 games.

Ice Cold:

Homer Bailey (0-2, 27.1 IP, 7.57 ERA, 1.87 WHIP)
Brad Bergesen (22. IP, 7.36 ERA, 1.91 WHIP)

One year ago this week the eventual champion NY Yankees were 15-17. Yes, that’s right, they had a terrible start, before going on a 16-4 run on the way to another pennant. Two years ago the AL champion Tampa Bay Rays were 10-11, second to last in the AL East, looking up at three teams (Boston, NY, Baltimore) they would soon overtake. The eventual 2007 World Series champion Phillies were 11-11, looking up at the Marlins and Mets in the NL East.

The best record in baseball at the end of April 2007 was (sorry, Cub fans), the Cubbies. They did make the playoffs, but didn’t come close to sniffing a rare World Series berth. One year ago the first place AL teams were the Blue Jays, Tigers and Rangers. None made the playoffs.

So don’t panic if your team is stumbling and don’t start thinking about printing playoff tickets if your team started 17-10, like the 2010 Padres. The biggest flops have been the Red Sox, Dodgers and Angels, though Boston has been hurt by injuries. Remember that three years ago the Phillies started 1-7 and ended up as NL East champs, while the eventual NL Champion Rockies were 10-16, last place in the NL West at the end of April, and 45-46 at the All Star break.

Just five years ago the Houston Astros started 8-13 and eventually stood at 15-30! They ended up winning the 2005 NL pennant. In 2003, the Florida Marlins started 19-29 and ended up winning the World Series. In 2002, the Angels started 6-14 and wound up winning their first World Series.
Oakland GM Billy Beane once said you spend the first third of the season seeing what you have and evaluating your team. The middle third trying to acquire pieces to fill weak spots, and the final third sitting back and watching the team make a run at the postseason — or not. We are in the first third of the season and there’s a long way to go. General Managers are in the process of evaluating what they have.

In the same way GMs need patience when analyzing baseball, so do handicappers. A year ago the Red Sox quietly turned things around after a poor start, winning seven in a row and eventually made the playoffs. The Padres have been the big surprise in the NL, with an improved offense while ranking second in pitching. However, consistency over the long haul is the key.

History is the best teacher. Look back five years ago for some comparisons. In April of 2005, the Orioles and Blue Jays were atop the American League East with the Red Sox and Yankees looking up at them. In the National League, the Dodgers had a blistering 11-2 start while no other team in the NL West had a winning record. When the season ended, a very different picture emerged. LA was 71-91 in fourth place, a bevy of injuries and a lack of hitting derailed their once promising season. Meanwhile, in April in the NL Central the eventual NL champion Astros were looking up at the Cubs, Reds and Cardinals.

Surprises will emerge over a long season and offer smart bettors good value for their wagering dollar, even with individual players. Pitchers are more susceptible to injuries than any other professional athletes and remember that betting numbers are made based on current and past performance. It can take a while before oddsmakers catch on to a struggling or injured pitcher.

Sometimes kid pitchers can come up from the minors and dazzle, such as we saw two years ago with Edinson Volquez (Reds) and Tim Lincecum (Giants). Of course, three years ago Fausto Carmona of the Indians dazzled, but has struggled (often overvalued) since. Sustaining a surprise start requires talent, depth, line-up balance and good health.

A crop of talented young players from the farm system can be a huge plus. In 2003, the Florida Marlins road a slew of hot young arms in Dontrelle Willis, Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Carl Pavano to a World Series title, while the Rays did something similar in 2008. Remember in 2003 the Royals started 17-4, the Mariners started 40-18 and the Diamondbacks were 52-42 at the All Star break. None made the playoffs. Those examples give hope to those teams that are off to struggling starts and should provide caution to teams that are in first place. After all, it’s only May!

Hot Starters:

Phil Hughes (3-0, 25 IP, 1.44 era, 0.88 WHIP)

Hughes will go up against the Yankees biggest rival in what should be a very good series and it will be key for the Red Sox. The Sox will send their struggling start Josh Beckett to the hill who has really gotten hit hard by the Yankees as of late. The Yankees are an amazing 60-22 in their last 82 vs. RH starter with their heavy hitting left handed line up.

Hughes has been terrific in 4 starts this year and has gotten better in each start. However, he has struggled in his career against the Red Sox. However, the Sox have not been themselves this season although they did score 11 runs last night. Along with that Phil Hughes really has impressed a lot of people. Add in the fact that Beckett has given up 13 ER in his last two starts vs. the Yankees and you may have some nice value with the Yankees as small under dogs.

David Price (3-1, 2.34 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)

Price and the Rays have been super hot this season and have the leagues best record. It’s been all about their pitching as their hitters really have not had to hit in the clutch. The A’s have never faced Price and the A’s are coming off an off day where they are 15-41 in their last 56 after an off day.

Price is a -150 favorite, but I believe it’s too much against a solid lefty in Gio Gonzalez who can throw a solid game even against the Rays. The A’s overall have a .239 average and 4.19 runs per 9 vs. LHP so they can definitely put some runs on the board against lefties, but are extremely streaky. If anything I stay away from this line as Price is still unproven on the road. In 12 career starts on the road he has a 5.45 ERA compared to his 2.90 home ERA.

Honorable Mention L5 Starts

Chris Carpenter (3-0, 32 IP, 2.81 ERA 36K’s)
Mike Pelfrey (3-1, 24 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)
Carlos Silva (31 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)
Huroke Kuroda (34.2 IP, 2.08 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)
Yovani Gallardo (29 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)
CJ Wilson (2-1, 32.2 IP, 1.65 ERA, 1.19 WHIP)
Francisco Liriano (36 IP, 1.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP)
Shaun Marcum (33.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)
Jered Weaver (30.2 IP, 2.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 34 K’s)
Felix Hernandez (34 IP, 2.91 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 32K’s)

Cold Starters:

Mark Buehrle (1-4, 30.1 IP, 6.53 ERA, 1.62 WHIP)

Watch out on this game. You’ll see most of the public on the Blue Jays especially since you see Marcum on our hot starter list, but I would not be backing Marcum in this spot and that’s probably the reason why you say Buehrle as a favorite. In his last 5 home starts vs. the White Sox dating back to 2004 he’s got a 1.75 ERA in 36.1 IP.

Buehrle has struggled as of late of course with a 8.27 ERA over his last three starts, but this is a perfect time to get a quality start in as the Blue Jays are now 0-5 in their last 5 vs. LH starters. Blue Jays scoring just 2.51 runs per 9 innings in their last 5 games with a .204 average. A solid start from Buehrle won’t necessarily mean a win for Chicago as their bullpen has been costing most of their losses with a 7.20 ERA in their last 5.

Ice Cold:

Edwin Jackson (27.1 IP, 8.56 ERA, 1.87 WHIP)
Bud Norris (1-3, 22.1 IP, 7.25 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, *26K’s)
Zach Duke (1-3, 29 IP, 6.52 ERA, 1.72 WHIP)

Hot Starters

Matt Garza (4-1, 35 IP, 2.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 34 K’S)

Garza has cooled off a bit in his last few starts as he gave up 5 ER one start ago but then came back with 1 ER in 6 IP in the next. He will go up against Cliff Lee making his 2nd start since coming off his injury. Lee showed no rust in his first start going 7 IP and giving up 0 ER. It will be a little different against a Rays team that has been solid hitting .309 and scoring 6.85 R/9 in their last 5 vs. LHP.

Garza has two starts on the year away with a 0.56 ERA and has not started vs. the Mariners since 2008 where he struggled. He has 4 career starts vs. the Mariners and has just 17.2 IP giving up 34 hits and 18 ER. Both teams are different now, and Garza has clearly improved. I still would not bet on this game if you ask me unless you go with the under which is 18-7-1 in the Mariners last 26home games. With two solid starters going it might be the right play considering the Mariners are hitting just .212 and scoring 2.45 runs per 9 in their last 5 vs. RHP.

Colby Lewis (3-0, 32.2 IP, 2.75 ERA 1.10 WHIP, 38 K’s)

Lewis is not a young pitcher by any means but you may not have heard of him in quite some time. Fact of the matter is, is he has three games with 10 strike outs and he’s striking out more batters than innings pitched so this could be a good sign for him to continue putting up these numbers. He has not started against the A’s since 2004 so we can throw out those stats. He is coming off a complete game in his last start so again I would be careful about this play with him as a favorite especially with who he is facing.

Trevor Cahill will make the start for the A’s and he is 3-1 all time vs. Texas with 25.2 IP and just 7 ER. However, Oakland will have a hard time supporting him as they face the hot pitcher and they are scoring just 1.67 runs per 9 innings in their last 5 vs. RHP.

Honorable Mention:

Andy Petitte (3-0, 34 IP, 2.12 ERA)
Barry Zito (4-0, 1.53 ERA, 0.88 WHIP)
Brad Penny (3-1, 34.2 IP, 1.56 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)

Cold Starters:

Charlie Morton (0-5, 19.1 IP, 12.57 ERA, 2.17 WHIP)

Morton is a pitcher I know a lot about as I faced him back in high school in one of the most memorable games of my high school career. He is one of the strangest pitchers with loads of talent drafted out of high school. Why is he one of the weirdest pitchers well he had one of the biggest discrepancies between road and home ERA. His home ERA last year in Pittsburgh was 3.10, but on the road it was 6.04. Same goes for day and night starts. During the day an awful 7.62 ERA, but during night starts a 3.42 ERA.

Don’t punch in the Cubs tomorrow it gets weirder in terms of night and day with his starts. He had two starts vs. the Cubs and in the first he went just 1 IP gave up 10 ER. In his next start he threw a complete game shut out. Both of these starts were on the road so it’s not as easy as backing him at home/night and fading him away/day. Tomorrow he’ll make a home/night start so if you were to back him the value is at it’s highest as he has an awful ERA, but has only started one time at home.

Ice Cold:

Doug Davis (22.1 IP 8.87 ERA 2.15 WHIP)
Porcello (2-2, 24.2 IP, 8.03 ERA, 1.91 WHIP)