NFL Juggernauts and Fading Has Beens

Looking at NFL in 2011, it’s clear that, despite the unbeaten Packers, parity has returned. Look at teams that were recent doormats who are playing well: Lions, Bills, Bengals, Texans, 49ers and Broncos. Even the Panthers and Dolphins have been competitive, with shots at respectable seasons after bad starts. The season is also littered with flops. The Vikings, Chargers, Bucs and Colts were expected to be better and but were out of it at the halfway point of the season. The Rams had high hopes... 

NFL Handicapping: Run the Football!

“Run the football more times, and you win.” I hear this all the time, on television and on radio, even in 2011, which has been a passing season in the NFL. When examining key games, analysts often conclude one team failed to run the football enough times, and the opponent pulled won the game simply because they had more rushing attempts. We heard this a lot after Super Bowl 36. In that game, the two-touchdown favorite Rams saw star running back Marshall Faulk get just two carries, while Patriots... 

2011 NFL Power Rankings – Week 12

Family and feelings are the enemy of good gambling and good writing about gambling. So I apologize for the soggy lead in this week, but I am trapped in Northern New York with my kin and only have a quick moment here in between dodging passive-aggressive barbs from my in-laws and skirting out to refill my cocktail from my depleting liquor supply to pass on this week’s NFL Power Rankings. Here is my Week 12 version of Doc’s Sports Power Rankings: 1. Green Bay Packers (10-0) – This is Green Bay’s... 

NFL Handicapping: Quarterbacks & Defense

There’s really no truer adage in pro football than the importance of quarterbacks and defense. Betting lines take these factors into account, and you can understand why. The offense revolves completely around the play of the quarterback, the only player on offense who touches the ball every play. QBs need touch, and accurate, split-second decision making all the time to keep the offense moving. They also require leadership skills, clutch ability on third and fourth downs, and even are asked to... 

Home Field Advantage & Road Travel in the NFL

It’s probably not discussed as much as home court in basketball and even college football, but teams in the NFL often have significant edges at home and liabilities on the road. A key part of sports is emotion. Even though NFL players are professional athletes getting paid to do a job to the best of their abilities, playing well before the home fans really is more important than playing as well on the road. The hometown fans are the ones who, in essence, are paying their salaries. No player wants... 

NFL Betting: Home vs. Road Disparity

How about those Baltimore Ravens? In back to back game they looked like world beaters, shutting down the Jets (34-17) and the Texans (29-14), covering both with ease. That put them at 3-0 Su/ATS at home this season, including that opening day shellacking of the Steelers, 35-7. Then again, a different Baltimore team can show up on the road, as we saw on Monday night in a 12-7 loss at Jacksonville…as a 10-point road favorite! That’s common with some pro and college football teams as the home/road... 

NFL Week 7 Player Props and Betting Predictions

In my Week 6 player props story, there weren’t too many immediate results for us to look back on – in other words I tackled a few season-ending totals for NFL players, such as 50-yard field goals for Oakland’s Sebastian Janikowski (he was two-yards shy of adding one in Week 6), sacks for Minnesota’s Jared Allen (he added No. 9.5 against the Bears on Sunday) or total starts for Denver’s Tim Tebow (he makes No. 1 this week at putrid Miami). The only Week 6 specific prop I addressed was on... 

NFL Betting: Turnovers Can Turn the Tide

Last week the Baltimore Ravens had just 267 total yards in a Sunday night showdown with the Jets and were a measly 6 of 18 on third down. In addition, they averaged 2.8 yards per rush. What a terrible offensive performance! Oh, and by the way the Ravens won the game, 34-17. Say what? The difference was turnovers, with the Jets coughing it up 4 times (3 fumbles, 1 pick). “The best defensive effort I thought I had ever seen or the most amazing defensive performance I thought I’d ever seen... 

Football Handicapping: Ugly Dogs Have Plenty of Bite

Some folks don’t even like LOOKING at ugly underdogs, never mind finding the courage to take the points. But don’t hold your nose and pass on every ugly looking team on the board, because that’s why the point spread was invented. Too many bettors play favorites. I recall one bettor telling me his rule was to NEVER play a bad team. With all due respect, this is the wrong way to look at handicapping. Dogs offer just as much value as favorites. A successful handicapper knows how to... 

The Best of the NFL 2011

The pro football season kicks off this week when the Saints travel to the defending champion Packers, a battle of the last two champs. Despite the fact that the NFC has won two in a row, the AFC has won 9 of the last 14 Super Bowls. Here is a look at some of the best of the NFL. NY Jets: The Jets do a lot of talking, but when are they going to get to their first Super Bowl since 1969? The bombast of sexy Rexy Ryan and the influx of talent (and characters) have made this another fascinating team to... 

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