Wednesday May 12, 2010 Probable Hot & Cold Starters

Enjoy our breakdown on our hot and cold pitchers which will give you a look at two featured hot pitchers going on the current day along with a struggling pitcher featured that I believe will come with a solid start. Wednesday we have a total of 5 hot starters who have an ERA under 3.00 in their last five starts compared to just three cold pitchers with ERA’s over 7.00 in their last five.

Hot Starters:

Matt Cain (2-1, 32 IP, 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP)

Cain started out slow this year but has really turned the lights on especially in his last three starts where he has a 1.80 ERA. That’s not as good as his opponent in Clayton Richard, but the Padres will be a hard opponent especially for Cain. The Giants are just 3-11 in Cain’s last 14 starts vs. the Padres as they have a .305 combined average in 131 at bats with a .872 OPS.

However, good news for Cain as he had 6 IP and 2 ER already vs. the Padres this year. Cain also has a 2.37 ERA in three starts at home this year. Last year he had a 2.72 ERA at home in 17 game starts. SD on the other hand is only 13-39 in their last 52 vs. a starter with a WHIP under 1.15. The Giants are 12-4 in their last 16 as a home favorite with Cain on the mound. My opinion is that I would lay off this game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line move off the public and heading towards the dog. I wouldn’t bet it.

John Danks (3-1, 35 IP, 2.06 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)

Danks has just been great this year with a season ERA at 1.98. He’ll make a day start where he had an ERA of 3.21 in 2009. Normally you have to be happy backing a LH starter against a heavy hitting lefty oriented line up, but the Twins have killed LH pitching this year. In fact the Twins at home against LH pitching have a .295 average and are averaging 6.32 runs per 9 innings vs. LHP.

Danks though has been great and even against the Twins last year was okay with a 3.86 ERA over 5 starts including a 4.13 ERA @ Minny, but they were all losses in 3 starts. White Sox are just 7-21 in their last 28 trips to Minnesota while Minnesota is one of the leagues best home teams going 21-7 in their last 28. If anything back Minnesota who you’ll get value on because of Danks and Pavano on the other side. Pavano though in 3 career starts vs. the White Sox has a 2.42 ERA. in 2009.

Honorable Mention L5 Starts

David Price (3-1, 34.2 IP, 1.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP)
Jered Weaver (3-1, 32 IP, 2.53 ERA, 1.06 WHIP)
Phil Hughes (4-0, 32 IP, 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP)

Cold Starters:

Edwin Jackson (0-3, 27.1 IP, 8.23 ERA, 1.79 WHIP)

What happened to Edwin Jackson? This is a guy who in 33 starts in the American League with the Tigers had a 3.62 ERA. Well we may find out on Wednesday if Jackson can pitch like he did in his last start. Jackson went 7 strong innings giving up just 2 ER in his last start and he’ll hope to continue that against the Dodgers and Huroki Kuroda.

The Dodgers won’t be easy, but it is pondering to see the Dodgers as small favorites considering how awful Jackson has been with a 14.18 ERA over his last three starts overall. The Dodgers are 19-6 in Kuroda’s last 25 starts as a favorite -110 to -150, but this line really confuses me. Especially with Jackson on the mound and a bullpen that has an 11.05 ERA in his last 3 games.

Ice Cold:

Homer Bailey (0-2, 27.1 IP, 7.57 ERA, 1.87 WHIP)
Brad Bergesen (22. IP, 7.36 ERA, 1.91 WHIP)