Week 9 NFL Picks

Doc’s Sportsfocuses on two contest for this Sunday that bettors might want to tune in to.

The Miami Dolphins play at the New England Patriots on Sunday with the NFL odds listing the Pats by 11.

Sure, the Patriots have looked like their old selves of late, friendly to supporters and brutal to opponents against whom they have no reserves about beating to a pulp until coach Bill Belichick is fulfilled.

The Pats have won its previous two games by a compounded score of 94-7, cashing in each game. But keep in mind these laughers came against the horrible Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are among the NFL’s bottom feeders.

To this point this year, when the Patriots have faced resistance they have sputtered. You can expect some resistance against the Miami Dolphins, whose awkward offensive sets and mostly strong defense has kept them close in most games.

Miami ranks fourth in rushing offense at 154 yards per game, while coming in sixth at stopping the run (92.4 ypg). The Dolphins also are a stunning 11th in scoring offense at 25.1 points per game.

New England’s offensive stats were inflated by the two blowouts, but the Patriots also have softly managed to field the NFL’s third-best scoring defense (14 ppg). The unit will have its hands full against a clock-control offense fashioned to shorten the game. Because of fewer possessions, New England will not be able to get ahead big, and the points provide a nice softener here.

Trends: Miami is 7-0 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more. Miami also is 5-0 ATS in their previous five against AFC East teams, and 13-3 ATS against home teams with winning records. New England is 4-1 ATS in their previous five as a chalk, and 4-0 ATS against squads with losing records. Each team won on the road last season.

Pick: Dolphins +11.

The 1-6 Tennessee Titans head to San Franciso to play the 49ers. San Fran is listed as a 4-point chalk. The Titans went from having the NFL’s best regular-season mark last year to becoming one of this season’s worst. The 49ers went from a promising beginning to another season that looks headed toward mourning what might have been.

Neither result should come as much of a surprise. It’s not so much that the Titans transformed from a solid team into an horrible one, as much as it is that the odds have plainly caught up with them. Coach Jeff Fisher’s reasonable, run-oriented fashion lends itself to the Titans consistently playing tight games. Last year, they happened to win most of them, and this year they are losing them. Fisher’s tight-gripped game plans are also stressed at the hands of opponents who run more advanced, higher-scoring sets.

San Fran isn’t one of them. Although San Francisco’s defense is sound enough to keep the team in most contests, its lack of offense has been a factor in its three straight losses. The 49ers are 27th in total offense with 275 yards per game.

San Francisco’s second-ranked run defense will be up against Tennessee’s second-ranked running attack (162 ypg). The match-up favors Fisher’s style, and the four points should come in handy.

Trends: The Titans are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5-10 points, and 4-1 ATS in their last five November games. The 49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games, and 3-0-1 ATS after a straight-up loss.