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Who's Dominating their Bookie this Season?
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Jimmy Boyd - Miami RedHawks +39.5 (CFB)
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the RedHawks in Saturday's showdown in Columbus against the No. 6 ranked Ohio State.
A lot of people thought the Buckeyes would struggle against their old coordinator in Luke Fickell when Ohio State hosted Cincinnati in Week 2. That didn't happen. Buckeyes won 42-0 as a 14.5-point favorite. Same thing last week. People thought they would struggle at Indiana. They won 51-10 as a 17.5-point favorite.
Now the Buckeyes host Miami (OH), who just lost by 23 at Cincinnati. They won't blink an eye here. To them Ohio State should win by 40 easy. They probably could, if they wanted to. That's the key here.
This is the ultimate letdown spot after getting up for their first 3 games, even though they were a big favorite in Week 1, teams seem to get up for Lane Kiffin's FAU squad. They also have a big time road game on deck against a Nebraska team people can't stop talking about.
This is the ideal spot for Ryan Day to get the starters out early and ready for the Big Ten portion of the schedule. As for Miami (OH), they got a bunch of kids who dreamed of playing for Ohio State. This not just another game for them. I think they do enough here to lose by fewer than 40.
There's also a big time system in play favoring a fade of the Buckeyes. Favorites of 31.5 or more points who are a strong offensive team (5.8+ yards/play), who have outgained their last two opponents by 125 or more total yards are 4-23 (15%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Miami (OH)!
Brandon Lee - California Golden Bears +2.5 - (MLB)
I'll take my chances here with Cal as a small road dog against the Rebels. This goes against what I typically would do with a ranked team getting points against an unranked opponent. I almost always take the unranked team in this spot.
However, usually the public is all over the ranked team in this spot. That’s not the case. Close to 60% of the early action is on Ole Miss. I also think there’s people that simply see an SEC team vs a Pac-12 team and blindly take the SEC team.
The other thing is that even though Cal is ranked and we know they got a great defense, it’s hard to back a team that doesn’t wow you offensively. I get it. However, we did see Ole Miss manage just 173 total yards and 13 first downs against Memphis. Keep in mind they were outgained by almost 200-yards in that game, so it wasn’t as close as the 15-10 final.
Another thing here is I think this game means more to Cal, as a win over an SEC team would be huge and it would also be the first time they got to 4-0 under Wilcox. Ole Miss can say they can’t wait for this game, but there’s one team they can’t wait to play every year and that’s Alabama. They go to Tuscaloosa next week.
They were in this same spot when they lost at Cal as a 7-point favorite in 2017 with a road game against Alabama on deck. Give me Cal +2.5!
John Martin - Washington Huskies -6.5 (MLB)
BYU was a 5-point home underdog to USC last week. Now they’re only 6.5-point home underdogs to Washington. If Washington and USC were to play on a neutral, that means the line would be Washington -1.5. I’d have one of my largest wagers of the season on the Huskies if that was the case. I still believe they are one of the best teams in the Pac-12, and I think that one-point loss to Cal will have them undervalued in the immediate future. They came back and beat Hawaii by 32 as 22-point favorites last week. So they basically didn’t have to exert much energy. So they’ll have a lot left in the tank here against a BYU team that is coming off back-to-back overtime wins over Tennessee and USC. I think the Cougars run out of gas here against a Washington team that beat them 35-7 last year. Give me Washington.
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