Sports Handicapper Doug Upstone's Picks & Predictions

Tampa Bay catcher Travis d'Arnaud hit three homers against New York including the ninth inning game winner to beat the Yankees. Emotionally, that had to be a huge lift for the Rays who has defeated New York three straight times. Baseball bettors are less convinced and lifted Tampa Bay from +130 to +150 for tonight's tilt. The Rays offense is scoring 6.3 RPG in their past seven outings, with the Yanks at only 3.6 RPG in the same span. CC Sabathia and his teammates are 6-1 at home this year, but I like the value with the hotter team. Tampa is 11-1 after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season and I'll take a shot here.

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With the changes in the odds, if you like mid-priced favorites, it's going to cost a little more the rest of the season. The Twins offense should handle New York and they fit several of my systems. In addition, the Mets are 2-15 in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start), while the Twinkies are 9-0 in home games vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season since 2017. 

Andrew Cashner (9-3, 3.83 ERA) comes to Boston to be their 5th starter. His goal is to give them six innings, keep them in the game and help save the bullpen and let the offense do the rest. While I don't expect him to pitch as well as he has lately (1.41 ERA in five starts) he should be pumped up to be a good team and facing a bad one. Red Sox hitters should rake Toronto rookie Jacob Waguespack, who was 2-6 with a 5.30 ERA at Triple-A this season. Boston is 20-11 on the RL when the total is 10 or higher and Cashner is a perfect 10-0 against the RL when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Los Angeles is back to swinging the bats and playing like the best team in baseball. Walker Buehler (8-1, 3.46 ERA) will face a Philadelphia squad that is not close to meeting expectations and who has lost six of nine. The Phillies Vince Velasquez (2-5, 4.63) has been inconsistent all season and even more so recently with 5.94 ERA in his last four starts. Concerning the run line, here are two keys about tonight, Philly is 2-13 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or better (losing by 2.6 RPG) and Velasquez is 1-10 vs. teams outscoring foes by one or more runs a game since 2017, (Phillies Record) losing by 3.1 RPG.