Free CFL Picks

The number is 62, give or take a half, and I have been staring at totals long enough to know when the market is selling a shootout that is not coming, Montreal is 8-1 with 321 scored and 247 allowed, 35.7 a night, Ottawa is 0-9 with 207 for and 322 against, 23.0 scored and 35.8 given up, add those two offenses and you get 58.7, that is already under this number, 35 plus 23 is 58, you need 63 to cash, and you are asking a winless club to find four extra points they have not shown in a month.

Davis Alexander just dropped 34-13 on these same Redblacks, 22 of 30 for 420 and three scores, 47 total points, the man is around 3,140 yards, 10.4 yards an attempt, 24 balls of 30-plus, two picks on 303 throws, that is a 0.7 percent pick rate, Jake Maier is 246 of 352, 69.9 percent, 2,680 yards, 12 and 11, he can fill a box score, he cannot stop the bleeding, they also played 37-35 in June, that is 72, so you have one track meet and one mismatch, anybody betting 62 is betting the June game comes back, I am betting the 47 does.

League-wide the CFL loves to hang 62 when a star quarterback meets a last-place defense, the public sees Alexander and a unit giving up 35.8 and slams the over like it is a sure thing, what they miss is the blowout script, big-spread games die in the fourth, the favorite kneels, the dog stops scoring, Montreal is 7-2 to the over because they score, Ottawa is 4-5 on totals, last five finished 54, 62, 47, 70 in overtime, and 57, that is three unders and one overtime gift, they scored 21 last Friday and 13 the last time this defense saw them, that is not a 35-point night.

Simple math, 321 minus 207 is a 114-point season gap, 35.7 plus 23.0 is 58.7 against a 62 board, last meeting was a 21-point beating and the total was buried at 47, a 12-and-a-half favorite that actually covers usually kills the over, rest plus a bye after hanging 48 on Edmonton is a Thursday night sit-on-it game at Molson, not a fireworks show, I am on the under, that is the play.

My selection is on Winnipeg plus the points over Edmonton at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

The Blue Bombers closed as four-point favorites at home against the Elks in the first meeting between these two teams this season but ultimately lost that game 23-18. So Winnipeg will be out for revenge in Edmonton on Friday and I think the Elks are quite simply laying too many points. Casual bettors will look at last week's 42-12 Elks win over the Argonauts and assume they're rightfully installed as considerable favorites here. Keep in mind, Edmonton took advantage of four Toronto turnovers in that game. In fact, the Elks have been cleaning up in the turnover battle for much of the season but as I've stated time and time again, turnovers aren't something we can accurately predict. For the most part this season, the Elks haven't met a close game they didn't like, with four of their seven victories coming by five points or less. It's been an up and down season for the Bombers but I think they're capable of taking this game down to the wire at the very least. Take Winnipeg (8*).