Sports Handicapper Jimmy Boyd's Picks & Predictions

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Ohio State +4½

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3* HEAVY HITTER on UC-Santa Barbara -165

UC-Santa Barbara is the class of the Big West and they have a massive talent advantage in this matchup.
The Gauchos are a much more efficient offensive unit and consistently find high-quality looks in the half-court.

Cal Poly is currently one of the lowest-ranked teams in the country in effective field goal percentage.
They struggle to put the ball in the hoop and often suffer through long scoring droughts that allow opponents to pull away.

The Mustangs also have a major issue with ball security against disciplined defenses.
They are turning the ball over on nearly twenty percent of their possessions during conference play this season.

UCSB will capitalize on those mistakes with a lethal transition game led by their veteran guards.
The Gauchos also rank inside the top fifty nationally in defensive rebounding percentage.

They rarely allow second-chance points, which is the only way an underdog like Cal Poly stays competitive.
UCSB dominates the interior and should have a significant edge in points in the paint tonight.

The Gauchos are coming off a solid performance this past Thursday and have plenty of momentum.
They are focused on the conference standings and cannot afford a letdown against a bottom-tier opponent.

Cal Poly has failed to cover the spread in the majority of their recent home games.
Their defense is far too porous and allows opponents to shoot over fifty percent from inside the arc.

Santa Barbara is led by a backcourt that knows how to handle the pressure of closing out games on the road.
They won't be rattled by the environment and have the depth to maintain a high pace for forty minutes.

The price on the moneyline is a bargain considering the massive gap in overall efficiency metrics.
Everything points toward a comfortable Gauchos victory as they simply outclass the Mustangs in every facet of the game.

I like the UC-Santa Barbara ML (-165).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Old Dominion -170

Old Dominion is in a prime spot to take care of business at home today. Motivation will be at an all-time high with it being Senior Day and Alumni Day in Norfolk. The school is also retiring a legend’s jersey this afternoon, so expect a loud and energized crowd at Chartway Arena.

Georgia State comes into this game as a team clearly struggling away from home. The Panthers are a dismal 3-12 on the road this season and have lost five straight games. This is the second leg of a tough road swing for them after a physical loss at James Madison on Thursday.

Old Dominion is much more competitive in their own building than their overall record suggests. They shot a blistering 50.8% from the floor in their narrow two-point loss to Marshall on Thursday. That offensive rhythm should carry over against a Georgia State defense that often lacks intensity on the road.

The Monarchs have a significant advantage in the turnover battle. They rank fourth in the Sun Belt at protecting the ball, averaging only 10.8 turnovers per game. By not giving away free possessions, they force opponents to beat them in the half-court.

Georgia State relies heavily on the three-pointer to stay in games, but the Monarchs are built to stop that. Old Dominion ranks fifth in the conference in three-point percentage defense, holding teams to just 32% from deep. If the Panthers can’t find easy looks from the perimeter, their offense will stall.

Georgia State is also dealing with roster uncertainty as rotational depth might be thin today. Old Dominion has a clean injury report and the depth to push the pace against a tired road team. The Monarchs lead the all-time series 19-10 and have a history of dominant wins in this building.

Bet Old Dominion ML (-170).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Ole Miss -165

Ole Miss is a completely different animal when they play at the SJB Pavilion.
Chris Beard has his guys locked in on the defensive end right now.

The Rebels are forcing nearly 15 turnovers a game when playing in front of their home crowd.
Mississippi State has struggled to protect the rock in hostile environments all season long.

The Bulldogs simply don't have the perimeter scoring to keep pace if this game speeds up.
Ole Miss holds a significant edge in effective field goal percentage over their last five games.

The Rebels move the ball better and find higher-quality looks from beyond the arc.
Mississippi State is shooting under 32% from three-point range in true road games this year.

You aren't going to beat a Chris Beard team in February by missing open jumpers.
Ole Miss also has a massive advantage at the charity stripe.

They rank near the top of the SEC in free-throw percentage and get to the line often at home.
The Bulldogs' defense is physical, but that will lead to whistle trouble in a loud arena.

Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in three of their last four road games.
Their offense often gets stagnant when they can't dominate the offensive glass.

Ole Miss has the size and discipline to keep the Bulldogs off the boards.
This is a massive "revenge" spot for the Rebels after losing the first meeting in Starkville.

Beard is one of the best in the country at making tactical adjustments for the second matchup.
The Rebels will use their superior backcourt depth to wear down the Bulldogs' guards by the ten-minute mark.

Expect the home crowd energy to carry the Rebels through any scoring droughts.
The moneyline price is short enough to back the much better shooting team on their own floor.

I like the Ole Miss ML (-165).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on UCF -165

UCF is a different animal when they play in Orlando. They lean on a suffocating defense that ranks near the top of the Big 12 in adjusted efficiency.

West Virginia has struggled to find any rhythm on the road this season. The Mountaineers are giving the ball away far too often in loud environments.

UCF excels at forcing turnovers and turning them into easy transition buckets. They play with a level of speed that West Virginia simply cannot match.

The Knights hold a massive edge in effective field goal percentage defense. They contest every shot and rarely give up open looks from the perimeter.

West Virginia relies on offensive rebounding to stay in games. UCF is disciplined on the defensive glass and limits those second-chance opportunities.

The Mountaineers played a physical conference game earlier this week. They are showing signs of fatigue as the February grind sets in.

UCF is much fresher and has been dominant as a home favorite this year. They have the depth to keep the pressure on for all forty minutes.

West Virginia’s shooting numbers have cratered away from home. They are shooting poorly from three-point range in their last four road games.

UCF will win the battle at the free-throw line as well. They attack the rim and get to the stripe at one of the highest rates in the league.

The atmosphere in Orlando will be a major factor in this one. Expect UCF to pull away in the second half and control the tempo.

Bet UCF ML (-165).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Stanford/Wake Forest: over 150

The total in this matchup is sitting way too low for two teams that prioritize pace over everything else.
Stanford has completely changed its identity since moving to the ACC and now ranks inside the top 50 for adjusted tempo.

They aren't interested in grinding out possessions in the half-court.
The Cardinal look to strike early in the shot clock, which leads to high-possession games.

Wake Forest is even more aggressive at home in Winston-Salem.
The Demon Deacons are putting up over 82 points per game on their home floor this season.

They have a backcourt that thrives in transition and draws fouls at a top-20 rate nationally.
Free throws are a bettor's best friend when chasing an over, and Wake gets to the line constantly.

Stanford’s defense hasn't traveled well this year.
They are giving up a high effective field goal percentage to opponents on the road.

The Cardinal struggle specifically with perimeter rotation.
Wake Forest has the shooters to punish them, featuring three different rotation players hitting over 38% from deep.

Both rosters are coming into this game healthy.
There are no major injuries to the primary rotation or leading scorers on either side.

The over is 7-2 in Wake Forest's last nine games against conference opponents.
Stanford has seen the over hit in four straight games following a straight-up win.

This game should be played in the mid-to-high 70s in terms of total possessions.
With both teams shooting efficiently, this number should be closer to 158.

I like the Over 150 (-105).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Minnesota +6½

Washington is falling apart at the seams because of a massive wave of injuries.

The Huskies have lost star freshman JJ Mandaquit and top scoring threat Desmond Claude for the remainder of the season.

They currently have 10 different players on the injury report and are literally running out of bodies in the rotation.

It is almost impossible to build any chemistry when only three players on the entire roster have appeared in every game this year.

Minnesota isn't a national powerhouse, but they are playing much more competitive basketball than this line suggests.

The Gophers proved their ceiling by upsetting No. 10 Michigan State recently and were a couple of plays away from beating Maryland last weekend.

Minnesota also enters this matchup with a big rest advantage.

The Gophers haven't played since last Sunday, while Washington is coming off a hard-fought loss to Penn State this past Wednesday.

Cade Tyson is the best player on the floor tonight, and he is averaging 19.4 points per game for Minnesota.

Washington’s defense is a mess right now, giving up nearly 75 points per contest during their current three-game slide.

The Huskies are also struggling to score, shooting a miserable 30% from the floor in their most recent outing.

Minnesota’s defense is much more reliable and holds opponents to under 69 points per game on the season.

The Gophers are also dangerous from the perimeter after knocking down 14 three-pointers in their last game.

This is a battle between two teams sitting at the bottom of the Big Ten standings.

There is absolutely no reason Washington should be favored by almost seven points given their current state of health.

Expect a tight, low-scoring battle that comes down to the final few possessions.

I like the Minnesota +6.5 (-115)

3* HEAVY HITTER on Pennsylvania +120

Penn is playing in the Palestra tonight and that is always a massive advantage.
The Quakers are a different team on their home floor compared to when they travel.

Cornell played a grueling game on Friday night and now they have to deal with a quick turnaround.
The Big Red play at one of the fastest tempos in the country which is hard to sustain on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Penn excels at slowing the game down and forcing teams into half-court sets.
They rank near the top of the Ivy League in three-point percentage defense.

Cornell relies almost entirely on the long ball to generate their offense.
If those shots don't fall due to tired legs, they do not have a reliable post game to fall back on.

The Quakers have been excellent as home underdogs over the last two seasons.
They are catching Cornell in a classic trap spot after the Big Red's emotional win last night.

Penn has the clear edge in the frontcourt and should dominate the rebounding battle.
Controlling the glass will limit Cornell’s transition opportunities and second-chance points.

Coach Steve Donahue knows this Cornell system better than anyone and always has his guys prepared.
The Quakers have the defensive discipline to frustrate a fatigued road team.

Taking the points is fine, but the value is on the home team to win this game outright.
The energy in the Palestra will be the difference in the final five minutes.

Bet Pennsylvania ML (+120).

1* Free Pick on SIU-Edwardsville +1½

SIU-Edwardsville is catching points at home against a UT Martin team that consistently struggles to get stops on the road.

The Cougars are a much more disciplined group when they play in their own building and they excel at dictating the tempo.

UT Martin likes to play at a high pace, but their transition defense is one of the biggest vulnerabilities in the OVC.

SIUE ranks near the top of the conference in effective field goal percentage when playing at First Community Arena.

The Skyhawks have a major issue on the defensive glass and they give up far too many second-chance points to physical teams.

SIUE will use their size advantage to control the paint and keep the Skyhawks from getting out in the open floor.

UT Martin played a grueling road game on Thursday night and this travel schedule is starting to take a visible toll on their depth.

The Cougars have been sleeping in their own beds all week and will clearly have the fresher legs in the second half.

The betting market is giving too much credit to the Skyhawks' raw scoring numbers while ignoring their defensive efficiency gaps.

SIUE is the more balanced team and they have a distinct advantage in turnover margin when playing in front of their home crowd.

The Cougars are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games against the Skyhawks.

In a conference game that should be priced as a pick'em, we are getting value with the better defensive team at home.

Expect SIUE to win this one outright by winning the battle at the free-throw line and controlling the boards.

I like the SIU-Edwardsville +1.5 (-110)

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5* NO BRAINER on Louisiana Tech +160

Louisiana Tech is the better team on both ends of the floor. Getting them at +160 is a massive gift from the oddsmakers.

FIU depends entirely on creating chaos and forcing turnovers. Louisiana Tech plays a disciplined style that neutralizes that pressure.

The Bulldogs rank near the top of the conference in taking care of the ball. They won't let the Panthers dictate the tempo or get easy transition buckets.

Size is the biggest factor in this matchup. Louisiana Tech has a major advantage in the paint and on the glass.

FIU is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country. They give up far too many second-chance opportunities every single game.

Louisiana Tech will dominate the offensive boards and get easy put-backs all afternoon. That high-percentage scoring takes the air out of the home crowd.

The Bulldogs also bring the superior defense to the table. They lock down the perimeter and force opponents into contested mid-range jumpers.

FIU relies heavily on the three-point shot to stay competitive. When those shots aren't falling, they lack the interior presence to keep the score close.

Louisiana Tech comes into this game with momentum after a strong performance this past Thursday. They are the more physical and more efficient squad.

The wrong team is favored here based on the efficiency metrics. The Bulldogs have the veteran backcourt needed to win on the road in a hostile environment.

I expect Louisiana Tech to control the pace from the tip and win this game outright. There is too much value on the superior defensive team to pass up.

I like the Louisiana Tech ML (+160).