Sports Handicapper Jimmy Boyd's Picks & Predictions

4* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Colts +

The public is all over the Eagles with the news that Carson Wentz is making his much anticipated debut of 2018 and it has Philadelphia way overvalued here at home against the Colts. Indy is a legit playoff threat in the AFC with Andrew Luck back at quarterback. 

After blowing a 13-point lead in their opener at home against the Bengals, Indianapolis went on the road and put it on the Redskins in a 21-9 win. We knew the offense would be improved with Luck back under center, but the perception is the Colts have no defense. That's not the case and even with Wentz back in the lineup, I think the Eagles offense will struggle here. 

Philadelphia is missing a ton of key pieces on the offensive side of the ball. Alshon Jeffery is still out with a shoulder injury. Fellow wide out Mike Wallace and running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles will join him on the sidelines. 

Colts have thrived as a dog in this price range with their signal caller under center. Indy is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points with Luck at quarterback. Take Indianapolis! 

5* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on 49ers +

The Chiefs are getting way too much respect from the books after their 2-0 start. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes has been the talk of the NFL after setting a new NFL record with 10 touchdowns passes in the first two games of the season. While the Chief's offense is dynamic, the defense is one of the worst in the league. 

Kansas City's secondary has been an absolute joke. They let Philip Rivers throw for 418 yards in Week 1 and last week Ben Roethlisberger threw for 442 yards. Expect a monster day here from Jimmy Garoppolo and the entire 49ers offense. 

I just think when you play defense as poorly as the Chiefs do, it's only a matter a time before it bites you. San Francisco's defense hasn't been great early on, but will be getting back a huge piece this week in linebacker Reuben Foster, who was suspended the first two games. I think the 49ers get a few more stops and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they won this game outright. 

There's also a great system in play favoring a San Francisco cover. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who didn't force a turnover in their previous game are a mere 41-81 (35%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting the 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Take San Francisco! 

1* Free Pick on Broncos/Ravens  UNDER 43.5 

Look for a defensive battle Sunday when the Ravens host the Broncos and for the game to finish well below the posted total of 43.5. These two teams have flashed some offense early on, but Baltimore 47-point outburst in Week 1 came against the Bills and Denver hasn't exactly played a great defense with their first two against the Seahawks and Raiders. 

Both of these teams are built on their defenses and both can get pressure on the quarterback. I just don't see either of these offenses being able to consistently sustain drives and I think both will struggle in the red zone. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Ravens last 11 off a division road loss and 9-2 in their last 11 after 2 straight games where 50+ total points were scored. 

We also find a great system in play. The UNDER is 26-6 (81%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a division road loss (Ravens) against a team off a win over a division opponent (Broncos). Take the UNDER! 

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4* NFL Sunday Night Football ATS NO BRAINER on Lions +

The public perception couldn't be much worse on the Lions after their 0-2 start, especially the ugly loss at home in prime time against the Jets in Week 1. That combined with the public wanting to jump on the Patriots off a loss, has Detroit showing some exceptional value here at home on Sunday Night Football. 

The Lions might not be a great team, but they are going to play their hearts out for their new head coach Matt Patricia, as he came to Detroit from New England. Not to mention their season is pretty much on the line, as it's no secret that your chances of making the playoffs are slim to none if you start the season 0-3. I'm not saying they win the game, but I don't think it's out of the question. 

New England is beat up right now. They got multiple key players on both sides of the ball injured and the Patriots are a team that has consistently started out slow. NE is also a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a losing home record. 

We also see that underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 30+ points in their last game are 120-72 (63%) ATS when facing a team off a loss by 10 or more. Take Detroit!