Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy's Picks & Predictions

The strongest case for the METS starts with two independent regression/market systems pointing in the same direction.

The Luck Factor gap is a significant 11.84, with New York at -8.34 and San Diego at +3.50. The metric compares actual wins with the number of wins advanced performance indicators suggest a team should have accumulated. In simple terms, the Mets have substantially underperformed their underlying results while the Padres have received more favorable outcomes. That creates one of the larger positive-regression gaps on Monday's card.

The market provides another powerful indicator. San Diego enters at 67-58 while New York is only 56-69, yet the METSare favored at Citi Field. When a home team is favored despite having at least 11 fewer victories than its opponent, the historical database has produced an 8.1% ROI on the moneyline and 10.4% ROI on the run line. Instead of automatically backing the team with the much better record, this is precisely the type of counterintuitive pricing that suggests the oddsmakers are assigning considerably more value to New York than the standings would indicate.

The starting-pitching matchup supports that position. Nolan McLean owns a 3.42 ERA with 159 strikeouts in 136.2 innings, compared with a 4.88 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 114.1 innings for Walker Buehler. McLean also carries a 3.57 FIP, while Buehler sits at 4.29. (Amazin' Avenue) McLean's most recent outing was particularly impressive: six innings, one hit and one run against Atlanta. (New York Post)

Buehler is coming off one of his better starts, allowing one run over six innings against Milwaukee, so this isn't simply a fade of his latest form. (Reuters) The larger body of work remains considerably less convincing. Covers lists Buehler with a 4.88 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and only a 17% quality-start rate, while McLean has been the substantially stronger swing-and-miss pitcher. Buehler has also been much more vulnerable away from home, where his numbers include a 5.47 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.

There is legitimate strength on the San Diego side. The Padres have been one of baseball's hotter teams and possess the superior season-long bullpen numbers. But New York's relief pitching has improved sharply recently, posting a 2.79 ERA since August 3, while the Mets have gone 9-3 since the trade deadline. (Amazin' Avenue) That recent improvement makes the season records even less representative of the teams currently taking the field.

The Padres have the better record and arrive in better long-term standing, yet the market still makes New York the home favorite. Combine that unusual oddsmaker signal with an 11.84 Luck Factor regression advantage and a meaningful starting-pitching edge, and the numbers point to the same side.

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The starting point is a 704-533-58 UNDER system when the posted total appears low relative to the recent totals attached to both starting pitchers. That is exactly the type of situation where the market number can be more informative than the obvious offensive and ERA statistics. 

Luis Castillo's full-season 4.96 ERA makes an 8 look especially suspicious, but his most recent outing was dramatically better than that number suggests. Castillo threw seven shutout innings, allowed one hit and struck out 10 against Cincinnati. His stuff was dominant, generating a 49% whiff rate and 36% called-strike-plus-whiff rate. (South Side Sox)

Shota Imanaga provides the stronger season-long foundation. He enters with a 3.74 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, and before allowing four runs in his latest start had posted a 1.77 ERA over his previous 40⅔ innings. 

This is also a classic case of resisting the temptation to simply project recent scoring forward. The White Sox just swept Detroit and the Cubs have shown plenty of offensive firepower, which makes an 8 at Wrigley stand out even more. Instead of shading the number upward to account for those bats, the market has moved the other direction. (South Side Sox)

Weather does not present an obvious reason to inflate scoring, with temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s around game time.

The combination is compelling: a 704-533-58 historical UNDER angle, a market total that is unusually low compared with the pitchers' recent game environments, downward movement from 8.5 to 8, Castillo coming off his best start of the season, and Imanaga's strong underlying body of work.

WHITE SOX-CUBS UNDER 8