Sports Handicapper Mike Lundin's Picks & Predictions

Kansas v Kansas State NCAAF Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Kansas State Wildcats have won 17 straight in the Sunflower Showdown, but the margins have tightened lately. Two of the last three meetings were one-possession games, and this year's K-State team hasn’t looked like a group ready to pull away. Both teams enter 0-2 in conference play, so there is no talent gap here that justifies the hype around the home team.

The Jayhawks opened as a significant underdog after last week's loss to unbeaten Utah, and the line has since come down, a sign that sharper money agrees the market overreacted. I’ll take the points in a rivalry game that should come down to the fourth quarter.

The Bet: Kansas ATS (3%). 

4% FAU v Army Total TOP PLAY

The Angle(s): This is a classic clash of styles, and I expect the Army Black Knights to set the tempo. Florida Atlantic coach Zach Kittley’s Air Raid led the country with 78.2 plays per game last season, but you can’t run plays from the sideline. Army just beat Tulane 20-17 by rushing for 329 yards while throwing for only 19. Long, clock-draining drives shorten the game, and that is how Army handled FAU the last time these teams met, a 24-7 win in Boca Raton. 

Army’s FBS games have stayed tight and modest this season: 28-24 against South Florida, 21-17 at Temple, 31-29 at Louisiana Tech and 20-17 against Tulane. The Army defense also held Tulane to 280 yards. The market is pricing in FAU’s high-scoring reputation, but at West Point, with Army controlling possession, I like this one to stay under.

The Bet: Under (4%). 

MAGIC MIKE'S NHL BOOKIE BU$TER

The Angle(s): The New York Islanders’ offense has been a problem away from home. They have scored just four goals while going 0-2-1 on the road, and the Isles already managed only one goal at Scotiabank Arena in a 2-1 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on opening night. 

The Leafs, on the other hand, can score. Auston Matthews leads the team with seven goals and 13 points, and William Nylander has added 12 points. Toronto has picked up a point in four of its last five games, and Thursday’s 5-4 loss to Buffalo came on Kirill Marchenko’s first hat trick as a Leaf. Both teams played Thursday, so there is no rest edge, and I trust Toronto’s firepower against a road team that struggles to finish.

The Bet: Maple Leafs ML (3%). 

4% NHL TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): The Detroit Red Wings have been far better than their slow start suggests. Three of their losses came by a single goal, including 3-2 to Winnipeg and 1-0 at Montreal, and Thursday’s 2-1 win over Philadelphia was a well-earned breakthrough. Detroit is also controlling play, averaging 32 shots per game compared with the San Jose Sharks’ 26, so the results should start to catch up with the process back on home ice.

The Sharks dropped three straight before embarking on this six-game road trip, and goaltending has been their biggest problem. Yaroslav Askarov has allowed at least three goals in all five of his starts this season, including five on 25 shots in Tuesday’s 6-3 home loss to Boston.

The Bet: Red Wings ML (4%). 

MAGIC MIKE'S Ohio State v Indiana CFB BOOKIE BLA$TER

The Angle(s): The market is overreacting to the Indiana Hoosiers’ 1-5 ATS record, and that has created value on the reigning national champions at home. Every one of those non-covers came while laying anywhere from 9.5 to 57 points, and now Curt Cignetti’s group catches points against the Ohio State Buckeyes, a team it beat 13-10 in last December’s Big Ten title game.

Roughly four of every five spread tickets are on the Buckeyes, while ESPN’s FPI rates Ohio State less than a point better, basically a coin flip. Cignetti has thrived in exactly this setting: Indiana hasn’t lost a home game since he arrived and is 10-2 straight up against teams winning at least 75% of their games.

The Bet: Indiana ATS (3%). 

Arkansas State v Southern Miss CFB BOOKIE BREAKER

The Angle(s): This is a revenge spot for the Arkansas State Red Wolves, who lost to the Southern Miss Golden Eagles 27-21 in Jonesboro last November despite throwing five interceptions. Butch Jones’ group has also been unlucky in Sun Belt play, falling 23-20 at Louisiana and 56-49 to South Alabama, so I expect a focused effort after Jones publicly took the blame for that South Alabama loss. Quarterback Trey Owens has thrown for 1,461 yards and nine touchdowns, and that passing attack faces a Southern Miss defense allowing 34.6 points per game.

Southern Miss has lost four straight, most recently a 55-34 beating at Troy that coach Blake Anderson said was poorly coached and poorly played. The Golden Eagles have trailed at the start of every game this season and are playing without starting quarterback Ethan Hampton, who fractured his throwing hand. Backup Landry Lyddy has been sacked nine times and offers nothing on the ground. Arkansas State has the more balanced roster and plenty of motivation, and I’ll lay the points with the road side.

The Bet: Arkansas State ATS (3%). 

4% CFB TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): This is a classic letdown spot for the Wyoming Cowboys, who return to Laramie after an emotional overtime win at San Jose State that snapped an eight-game road losing streak. With Air Force coming to town on October 24, the Northern Illinois Huskies are the sandwich game, and I don’t trust this offense to pull away from anybody. The Cowboys score just 14.5 points per game, their 138.2 passing yards per game is just awful, and just one of their games has gone over. Laying more than a touchdown in that kind of low-scoring script is a tall order. 

The Bet: Northern Illinois ATS (4%). 

MAGIC MIKE'S 4% MLB TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): The Cleveland Guardians have taken control of this series, and I like them to keep the pressure on at Progressive Field. Cleveland has won five of its last six postseason games since falling into an 0-2 hole against the White Sox. Thursday’s 3-2 win in Game 3 gave the franchise a 2-1 ALCS lead for just the fourth time in its history. The Tampa Bay Rays’ offense has gone cold at the worst possible time, scoring just eight runs through three games.

Tampa Bay turns to righty Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA), who has been a question mark this October. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings in his ALDS start against the Yankees and spent the early part of this series in the bullpen. Cleveland counters with a bullpen game, but it’s a relief corps the Guardians, and I, trust. With the home crowd behind them and a lineup that ranked sixth in wRC+ over the same stretch, the Guardians are the better side to take a commanding series lead.

The Bet: Guardians ML (4%).