Sports Handicapper Alex Smart's Picks & Predictions

The Pirates offense continues to struggle  and according to my projections are fade material in this afternoon spot play at Wrigley. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates have only hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 34 games (-14.50 Units / -35% ROI)

PITTSBURGH is 2-9   against the money line after 4 or more consecutive road games this season. PITTSBURGH is 3-9 against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span this season.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PITTSBURGH) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or worse over his last 3 starts are 8-29 L/5 seasons for a go against 79?% conversion rate. 

Play on Chicago Cubs to win

Value with the road  dog. Advantage Rays. 

MLB  team (TORONTO) - sub standard  offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, ice cold hitting team - batting .165 or worse over their last 3 games are 4-29 L/27 seasons for go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rays to win 

The Knicks dug deep last time out, and came up with a big win at home, despite of a lack of viable depth. The Knicks did exert alot of energy in that last victory, and Im betting on immediate regression because of exhaustion. The last time the Knicks played here in Indiana they looked gassed, and I wont be surprised if it happens again. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 40-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover 

The Twins are averaging .5.4 rpg on the road this season and are a viable offensive unit, while Cleveland averages 4.7 rpg at home. Cleveland has averaged five runs and behind 18 homers while winning 10 of its past 13 home contests. 

According to my early season power rankings the Twins matchup well vs  scheduled Cleveland starter Triston McKenzie (2-3, 3.54 ERA) who recorded a  6.23 ERA while losing two of his first three 2024 starts. Hes pitched better of late, but still looks beatable. The Guardians righty owns a  2-5 record along with a 5.14 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Twins. Meanwhile, scheduled Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson (1-0, 3.24 ERA)  is off giving up five runs on eight hits (including two solo homers) in 4 1/3 innings during a no-decision against the Toronto Blue Jays this past  Saturday. He will have his hands full with Josh Naylor who is batting .328 at home and has hit seven of his 12 home runs in 17 home tilts this season and off course  Guardians star Jose Ramirez who has five homers and 14 RBIs in his past 12 at home contests.

Everything points to an over wager cashing for us tonight. 

MINNESOTA is 49-27 OVER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 9.4 rpg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 8-1 OVER in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season with a combined average of 10.5 rpg scored. 

MLB teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CLEVELAND/MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two good teams (54% to 62%), in May games are 80-38 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 9.4 rpg game. 

MLB teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CLEVELAND) - ice cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 85-49 OVER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate with the combined average score clicking in at 9.3 rpg .

Play over