Sports Handicapper Alex Smart's Picks & Predictions

In the landscape of Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference action, tonight's matchup between the Delaware State Hornets and the South Carolina State Bulldogs stands out as a prime opportunity for bettors eyeing value in under-the-radar games. Set for January 26, 2026, at the Smith-Hammond-Middleton Memorial Center in Orangeburg, this contest features the Bulldogs as slight home favorites, with betting interest heavily skewed in their direction. Public bettors and sharp money alike have poured in, with over 70% of spread wagers and more than 80% of the handle favoring South Carolina State, signaling strong confidence in the home team despite both squads' overall struggles this season. This lopsided action often points to perceived edges, particularly when professional bettors align with the crowd, creating a "low bets, higher dollars" dynamic that savvy handicappers monitor closely.

Diving into the stats, South Carolina State enters with a scoring average of 65.7 points per game, which ranks near the bottom nationally, but their defensive woes—allowing 82.8 points on average—highlight a team that's been vulnerable yet resilient at home. The Bulldogs shoot 40% from the field and grab 31.9 rebounds per contest, with assists clocking in at 11.6, showing a methodical if not explosive offense. Delaware State, meanwhile, mirrors these inefficiencies, averaging similar low-60s scoring while converting just 39.5% of field goals and struggling from beyond the arc at 30.6%. The Hornets pull down 29 rebounds per game and have been turnover-prone, which could prove costly against a South Carolina State squad that's shown flashes of second-half rallies in recent outings, including a come-from-behind effort in their last conference tilt.

Betting trends further tilt the scales toward the Bulldogs. South Carolina State has covered the spread in 2 of their last 5 games overall, but they boast a stronger historical edge against Delaware State, winning 8 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings with an average scoring margin of 74.1 to 71.8. Notably, the Bulldogs have succeeded against a +3.5 handicap in 10 of their last 11 games versus the Hornets, underscoring a consistent ability to outperform expectations in this rivalry. On the flip side, Delaware State has gone 6-14 against the spread in their last 20 contests and a dismal 0-5 straight up in their most recent five road games, where travel fatigue and hostile environments often exacerbate their defensive lapses. The total has trended under in 10 of the Hornets' last 14 outings, suggesting low-scoring affairs, but with both teams' porous defenses—Delaware State allowing opponents to shoot 36.7% from three, there's potential for the over if South Carolina State's 34.6% three-point shooting heats up at home.

From an angles perspective, the home-court advantage looms large for South Carolina State, where the Bulldogs have historically performed better in conference play, leveraging crowd energy to force turnovers and control the glass. Rebounding could be the decisive factor, as South Carolina State's slight edge in boards (31.9 vs. 29) often translates to second-chance points in tight MEAC battles. Delaware State's road woes, combined with their inability to sustain leads—evidenced by recent collapses—make them vulnerable to a motivated Bulldogs team coming off a morale-boosting rally. Bettors should also note the consensus lean, with 77% of picks favoring South Carolina State, reflecting a market that's pricing in the Hornets' 16 losses in their last 18 games overall.

Putting it all together, the smart play here is backing South Carolina State on the moneyline or to cover the short spread. The convergence of heavy betting volume, favorable historical trends, and statistical mismatches in shooting and rebounding create a compelling case for the Bulldogs to handle business at home in this college hoops showdown

As the NBA action heats up on this Monday evening, one matchup stands out for bettors seeking value: the Los Angeles Lakers visiting the Chicago Bulls at the United Center. With tip-off set for 8:00 p.m. ET, the Bulls come in as slight home underdogs at +1.5, offering an intriguing angle for those eyeing the spread. Chicago has been surging lately, riding a four-game winning streak where they've not only secured victories but also covered the spread each time. Over their last eight games, the Bulls boast a 6-2 record straight up, bolstered by a impressive +8.2 net rating that highlights their efficiency on both ends of the floor. This momentum is particularly noteworthy at home, where Chicago has shown resilience against Western Conference foes, going 9-6 against the over/under in such cross-conference tilts.

Digging into the angles, the Bulls' success under head coach Billy Donovan against defensively vulnerable teams provides a strong betting trend to consider. Chicago holds a 64-48 straight-up record and a 57-51-4 mark against the spread when facing opponents that allow at least 116 points per game, a category the Lakers firmly fall into, given their bottom-tier defensive rankings this season. Los Angeles, sitting at 27-17 overall, has won three of its last four outings, but those triumphs came against squads dealing with injuries or fatigue, such as the Nuggets, Mavericks, and Raptors, which doesn't inspire confidence against a healthy, rolling Bulls lineup. The Lakers' road performance adds another layer: they've struggled to cover as favorites away from home.

Statistically, the matchup favors Chicago's offensive depth exploiting Los Angeles' weaknesses. The Bulls are fully healthy, with key contributors like Josh Giddey providing playmaking that could overwhelm a Lakers defense allowing opponents to shoot efficiently from beyond the arc and in transition. On the flip side, while the Lakers have a 72% win rate (18-7) when favored by at least -121 on the moneyline this season, that trend has been padded by easier matchups, and facing a Bulls team with a 23-22 record but recent dominance suggests potential for an upset or at least a close contest.

In summary, taking the Bulls +1.5 taps into proven trends of home underdogs thriving against leaky defenses, backed by Chicago's recent stats and Los Angeles' questionable road form.

n a marquee Big 12 matchup set for Monday night, the top-ranked Arizona Wildcats (20-0, 7-0 Big 12) hit the road to face the No. 13 BYU Cougars (17-2, 5-1 Big 12) in Provo. This clash pits Arizona's unblemished record against BYU's formidable home-court dominance, creating a prime spot for bettors to find value on the underdog side. With the line sitting at BYU +1.5, the Cougars offer an intriguing play backed by historical trends, statistical edges, and situational angles that favor them covering, or even winning outright, in what promises to be a high-octane affair.

Arizona has been a strong performer against the spread this season, going 13-7 overall, which translates to a solid 65% cover rate in their games. However, the Wildcats' dominance has largely come at home or in neutral settings, and their road tests in the Big 12 have been limited so far. While they've handled early conference away games, including a win over TCU, facing a top-tier opponent like BYU in a hostile environment could expose vulnerabilities. Road favorites in conference play often struggle when the public piles on, and Arizona fits that bill here as the consensus choice. On the flip side, BYU's 9-10 ATS record might seem middling at first glance, but it masks their excellence at the Marriott Center. The Cougars have been nearly unbeatable at home in recent seasons, boasting a 13-0 straight-up mark in their last 13 home contests heading into this one. This trend extends to high-stakes games; for instance, BYU recently dismantled Arizona State 104-76 in Provo, showcasing their ability to overwhelm opponents on their turf. Home underdogs in the Big 12 have historically performed well, especially when the spread is under a field goal, as teams like BYU leverage crowd energy and familiarity to keep games tight. Another trend worth noting is the public lean toward Arizona. As the undefeated No. 1 team, the Wildcats attract heavy recreational action, which can inflate lines and create value on the other side. In similar spots—top-ranked road favorites versus ranked home dogs—the underdog has covered at a 55-60% clip over the past five seasons in power conferences, per broader college basketball data.

Digging into the numbers, Arizona's perfect 20-0 start is fueled by elite offensive efficiency and a balanced attack. The Wildcats average over 90 points per game, ranking among the nation's best in scoring margin, and they've shot efficiently from the field while limiting turnovers. Their defense has been stout, holding opponents under 70 points in several key wins, but road games have seen them allow more open looks from beyond the arc. BYU counters with an explosive offense that leads the Big 12 in three-pointers made per game, attempting and converting at a high volume to stretch defenses thin. The Cougars rank in the top tier nationally for three-point percentage, with players like freshman sensation A.J. Dybantsa providing matchup nightmares—he's averaging 22.5 points per game on efficient shooting, including a recent 43-point outburst that highlighted his scoring versatility. BYU's pace ranks among the fastest in the conference, pushing the tempo to create transition opportunities and wear down road teams. Defensively, the Cougars commit just 14.7 fouls per game, avoiding free-throw parades that could benefit Arizona's skilled guards. They also shoot 75.6% from the line themselves, a clutch stat in close contests. Arizona, meanwhile, has a 12-7-1 ATS mark, but their covers have come against lesser foes; against top-25 teams, they've been more vulnerable, especially away from Tucson. The over/under hovers around 165, reflecting both teams' scoring prowess,expect a shootout where BYU's home three-point barrage could dictate the pace and keep them within the number.

Provo's elevation (over 4,500 feet) is a subtle but real factor for visiting teams, often leading to fatigue in the second half for road squads unaccustomed to the thin air. Arizona, based in the desert lowlands, might feel this in a fast-paced game, giving BYU an intangible boost. Series history adds intrigue: Arizona holds a slim 21-20 all-time edge, with the teams splitting last season's meetings—each winning on their home floor. This parity suggests no clear dominance, and BYU's rare opportunities against No. 1 teams (they're 1-9 historically) could fuel extra motivation, as the Cougars aim to make history in front of a raucous crowd. From a betting angle, this screams "fade the public." Arizona's undefeated streak draws casual money, but sharp bettors often target home dogs in these spots, where the line undervalues the venue's impact. BYU's 5-1 Big 12 mark shows they're battle-tested, and their lone conference loss came on the road,reinforcing their home invincibility.

In a game loaded with talent and intensity, BYU's home strength, three-point shooting edge, and historical competitiveness make them the side to back at +1.5. While Arizona's resume is impeccable, the rigors of a true road test against a top-15 foe could lead to a closer-than-expected finish. Grab the points with the Cougars for a value-driven wager in this Big 12 showdown.

In a classic Original Six clash, the Boston Bruins and New York Rangers present a strong case for leaning toward the under, driven by recent defensive trends and stylistic matchups. Both teams have emphasized low-event hockey in their latest outings, with Boston allowing just 2.8 goals per game over their last ten and New York tightening up to concede under three in home games against Eastern Conference foes. This season, the Rangers have seen the total go under in more than 55 percent of their contests when facing opponents with Boston's shot-suppression ability, as the Bruins rank among the league leaders in limiting shots against at 26.9 per game. Historical angles add weight, as the last five meetings between these rivals have averaged fewer than six goals, often featuring extended stretches of neutral-zone play and elite goaltending duels. Betting stats underscore this further, with unders hitting at a 62 percent clip in Rangers home games where the total is set at 6.5 or lower, reflecting their tendency to slow the pace against skilled but methodical teams like Boston. With both sides averaging around 3.2 goals for but excelling in penalty kill efficiency, Boston at over 85 percent, the game flow points to a grind-it-out affair rather than a shootout, offering solid value for under bettors.

The Anaheim Ducks head into their matchup against the Edmonton Oilers as notable underdogs, but their performance in similar spots this season makes the puck line an appealing option. Anaheim has shown strong resilience when facing steeper odds, covering the spread in over half of their games as underdogs, including a 54 percent success rate in keeping contests within one goal. This trend is particularly evident on the road, where the Ducks have limited high-powered offenses by focusing on disciplined defensive play, allowing just 3.49 goals against per game overall. Edmonton, while boasting a potent attack averaging 3.38 goals per outing, has struggled to blow out opponents consistently, with only a handful of their wins coming by more than one goal against teams with Anaheim's profile. Head-to-head history also supports this angle, as the last several meetings between these two have often stayed competitive into the later periods, with Anaheim's goaltending stepping up to force overtime or narrow defeats. Betting trends further highlight value here, as underdogs like the Ducks have covered in 60 percent of games against top Western Conference teams this year, capitalizing on Edmonton's occasional lapses in defensive structure that allow comebacks. With Anaheim's shots against per game at a solid 28.7, they are well-positioned to frustrate Edmonton's 29.4 shots per game average, making this a smart play for those looking to hedge against a potential upset without committing to the outright win.