Sports Handicapper Alex Smart's Picks & Predictions

Chris Bassitt (8-7, 3.61 ERA) is expected to start for the Mets against another  right-hander Justin Dunn (0-0, 0.00), who will be recalled from Triple-A Louisville to make his Reds debut as well as his first major league appearance since June 2021.Dunn, who opened the season on the injured list due to a right shoulder strain before being optioned to Louisville July 24, is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in eight minor league starts this season and looks like cannon fodder for the Mets batting order here today which will aid us in our over investment option cashing. On the flipside the Reds have shown improvement of late and on the season are moving into a positive mass formation , and are 5-1-1 in their L/7 series matchups, behind a offense that has averaged 5.4 rpg in their L/7 games overall. 

Note: Reds starter DUNN is 8-0 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 12.2 rpg scored. 

NY Mets starter BASSITT is 8-1 OVER  when playing against a team with a losing record this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.2 rpg scored. 

Over is 16-5 in Mets last 21 during game 1 of a series.Over is 6-2-1 in Mets last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 5-2 in Mets last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5

CINCINNATI is 35-18 OVER   after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.4 rpg scored. 

Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 overall.

Play OVER

 Wood the Giants starter tonight vs Padres owns a  4.40 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in three starts vs the Padres this season. He has 18 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings. Key here tonight is how Wood faired in his   career   against the Padres (19 appearances, 13 starts) .During those trips to the mound he has garnered  a 3.12 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. And in San Diego, Wood is 3-1 in nine games (six starts) with a 1.56 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP. Tonight Im betting he keeps his top shelf action going against a Padres side, that is off getting swept by the Dodgers this past weekend and getting shutout last night.The Dodgers outscored the Padres 20-4 over the weekend and now reeling don't look like viable bets here with downward momentum firmly in place. I know after a slow start that the Padres starter Snell has pitched well recently but my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest the Giants matchup well against him. 

WOOD is 14-1  against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

SNELL is 3-8 against the money line after giving up 2 or less  earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (SAN DIEGO) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.20 to 5.20)-NL, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 23-42 L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate.

MLB team (SAN DIEGO) - excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season, after 3 straight losses by 4 runs or more are 12-35 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Francisco to win 

The Yankees enter this game in struggling form as is evident by losing 5 straight games.The Mariners took two of three games from New York last week in the Bronx, which set in motion the Yankees downward momentum. Now Im betting at least for now the Yankees bad run will continue while the hungry Mariners keep up their fight for a post season spot. NYY starter Taillon allowed six runs (five earned) over 4 2/3 innings of an 8-6 loss to the Mariners on Tuesday and while Gilbert the Mariners starter dod not do much better still found a way for his team to get to the promised land and a rinse and repeat situation Im betting plays out tonight on the west coast. GILBERT is 11-3  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. (Team's Record)

SEATTLE is 10-4 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% over the last 2 seasons like J. Taillon.

Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Mariners are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. American League East.Mariners are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Mariners are 30-12 in their last 42 overall. NY YANKEES are 1-7  against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game in the second half of the season this season. Yankees are 0-9 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more are 21-54 L/25 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Seattle to win