Sports Handicapper Alex Smart's Picks & Predictions

Alex Smart

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Alex Smart Sports- NFL Sunday Nighter (Side)- Eagles @ Cowboys

The Philadelphia Eagles visit the  Dallas Cowboys  in Sunday  night prime time NFL action. Join me as I explain which side of the total the combined score will fall on! Tests 59% L/ 129 NFL run! kick off after 8:20 pm

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Alex Smart's Premium Picks Streaks & Trends

Sport W-L Profit Win Pct Since Archive
NBA 487-396 $6,020 55% 2017-11-17 View Picks
MLB 473-407 $5,323 54% 2018-05-06 View Picks
NHL 179-130 $4,302 58% 2017-10-04 View Picks
All Sports 1758-1606 $3,179 52% 2019-03-16 View Picks
NFL 115-87 $1,759 57% 2017-12-16 View Picks
Football 437-380 $1,691 53% 2017-09-02 View Picks
Basketball 1029-937 $1,397 52% 2017-11-23 View Picks
NCAA-B 16-9 $601 64% 2019-03-26 View Picks
NCAA-F 8-2 $596 80% 2019-10-17 View Picks
NFLX 5-3 $188 63% 2019-08-24 View Picks
WNBA 11-10 $11 52% 2019-08-16 View Picks

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

PICKS IN PROGRESS

Oct 20 '19, 1:00 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NFL | Dolphins vs Bills
Play on: OVER 41 -105 [Won: $100]
Game Analysis

Neither one of these teams is as good or as a bad as they have looked so far this season. No the Fins offence is not as bad as it seemed early on , as was evident when QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was put under center last week , almost bringing his team back from a 14 point deficit. With that said, Im expecting Miami to do more offensive damage than than the linesmakers expect this week behind the arm and mind of one of the leagues most under rated QBs. Meanwhile, Buffalo in its usually methodical way will also land some blows in a game I have pegged to eclipse this artificially low total that is based almost solely on recency bias of unders by both sides. Note: Miami has allowed an average of 36 ppg this season!

BUFFALO is 10-2 OVER  vs. terrible ball control teams, 28  or lessminutes TOP, 16 or less FD's per game with a combined average of 46.8 ppg scored.

 Buffalo has gone over the L/7 times its has been made a 8 point or more favortie. 

Dolphins have gone over 5 straight times  after a non conference home game. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (MIAMI) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 33-12  OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (BUFFALO) - after allowing 17 points or less in 5 straight games against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 41-13 OVER L/36 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Pick Released on Oct 20 at 09:02 am
Oct 20 '19, 1:00 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NFL | Raiders vs Packers
Play on: OVER 46½ -116 [Won: $100]
Game Analysis

The Raiders have back to back road underdog wins and 3 straight wins overall, and proving that they maybe better than many expected. It must be noted that both games easily eclipsed the total, and they have gone over in 3 straight games overall.  Meanwhile, Green Bay is off a short week after playing a Monday night game at Lambeau and their D maybe a little tired and vulnerable forcing Aaron Rodgers to air it out more than might be expected this Sunday . Note: NFC chalk off a Monday Night division game like the Packers ... have gone 19-2-1 OVER dating back 8 seasons, including a 100% perfect 9-0 OVER when the Total is north of 45 points. Also GREEN BAY is 16-2 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.9 ppg going on the board.

Im projecting for both teams to score 20+ points here tonight. OAKLAND is 10-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.6 ppg. GREEN BAY is 9-2 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored.

This series has gone over 5 straight times average Total of : 44.7  and the  average combined score clicking in at 51.4 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Pick Released on Oct 17 at 05:57 pm
Oct 20 '19, 1:00 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NFL | 49ers vs Redskins
Play on: Redskins +10 -121 at pinnacle [Won: $100]
Game Analysis

Lets not fool ourselves here , Washington is a horrendous team. However, travelling from west to east like the 49ers are here today and playing out of your time zone can also cause some havoc with a players body, and  mind set and even  preparedness. After being emotionally charged up for their last game , a win vs division rival the LA Rams Im expecting an emotional let down situation to concur with their east coast travel plans. With that said , Im betting on the 5-0 Niners to come out flat here and for the Skins to find a ugly way to cover. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 10-23 ATS L/33 in road games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less). 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 5-24  ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 

Pick Released on Oct 17 at 01:21 pm
Oct 20 '19, 1:00 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NFL | Dolphins vs Bills
Play on: Dolphins +17½ -120 at 5Dimes [Won: $100]
Game Analysis

Bills QB Josh Allen(Concussion protocol) has found ways to win despite throwing seven interceptions and losing several fumbles. He is truly a over rated QB at this point in his career. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are changing quarterbacks and last week, behind Ryan Fitzpatrick almost pulled off a miraculous comeback.  Look for Fitzmagic to be the difference maker here today vs a solid but vulnerable D, that Its use will be over looking this current opponent. 

BUFFALO is 14-28 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.

The Bills have lost the last two times they've been favored by 15 1/2 or more points. Buffalo lost 24-17 to the New York Jets on Dec. 6, 1992, and 16-13 at Indianapolis the previous week.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog, winless on the season are 25-6 ATS L/36 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

Pick Released on Oct 17 at 01:06 pm
Oct 20 '19, 1:00 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NFL | Rams vs Falcons
Play on: Falcons +3 -110 at Bovada [Lost: -$110]
Game Analysis

Things are not going the Atlanta Falcons way so far this season, as was evident last week when they out yarded and out played Arizona and still found a way to lose a one point 34-33 road tilt. Now the Falcons are extremely desperate to get a win here at home this week vs a struggling Rams side on a 3 game losing streak and Im betting take advantage of downtrodden team that is reeling out of control. Note:Super Bowl loser like the Rams as a non-division road chalk are just  (28-51-5 ATS) .  The Falcons are 4-0/SU/ATS L/4 in this series and get the nod again to get us the cover. 

ATLANTA is 21-8 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.LA RAMS is 14-28 ATS  L/42 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a good offensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 39-15 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Pick Released on Oct 17 at 12:51 pm

List of accomplishments

Sports
Year Accomplishment Record Win % Profit
2015 #1 in WNBA 49-32 60.5% $1,499
2014 -2015 #1 in NBA 192-148 56.5% $3,378
2017 -2018 #2 in NBA 228-179 56% $3,541
2016 -2017 #2 in CBB 274-223 55.1% $3,265
2016 -2017 #2 in NBA 238-189 55.7% $3,458
2016 -2017 #2 in Basketball 512-412 55.4% $6,723
2014 -2015 #2 in Basketball 430-378 53.2% $2,339
2014 #3 in WNBA 31-27 53.5% $167
2014 #3 in CFB 92-64 59% $2,222
2014 -2015 #3 in NHL 66-60 52.4% $834
2017 #4 in CFB 109-80 57.7% $2,017
2017 -2018 #5 in CFL 19-12 61.3% $565
2017 -2018 #5 in NHL 70-55 56% $1,397
2017 #5 in All Sports 1055-947 52.7% $3,438
2014 -2015 #5 in CFL 8-5 61.5% $260
2016 #6 in CFB 136-113 54.6% $1,243
2012 #6 in All Sports 103-74 58.2% $2,276
2015 -2016 #7 in CFL 8-6 57.1% $100
2013 -2014 #8 in CBB 221-190 53.8% $1,502
2016 -2017 #9 in CFL 5-3 62.5% $175
2012 -2013 #9 in Basketball 209-174 54.6% $1,798
2017 #10 in PRENFL 5-3 62.5% $170
2017 -2018 #10 in Basketball 497-441 53% $2,110

Service Alex Smart's Bio & About Section

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.