Sports Handicapper Alex Smart's Picks & Predictions

Alex Smart

Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything. Testing CBB 162-106 ATS 61% overall conversion rate that has made my dime players more than $44000.00 in bankroll expanding profits.

Alex Smart's Premium Picks Streaks & Trends

Sport W-L Profit Win Pct Since Archive
Basketball 1029-893 $5,058 54% 2021-03-17 View Picks
NCAA-B 164-107 $4,560 61% 2022-11-07 View Picks
All Sports 420-356 $2,888 54% 2022-10-08 View Picks
Football 193-149 $2,885 56% 2021-12-09 View Picks
NFL 126-103 $1,235 55% 2021-01-17 View Picks
NHL 23-15 $1,025 61% 2022-05-04 View Picks

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

PICKS IN PROGRESS

Feb 07 '23, 9:10 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NBA | Wolves vs Nuggets
Play on: UNDER 235½ -105
Game Analysis

My projections make this total closer to 231 giving us a two possession edge on this current offering. 

Denver runs at a slow 20th ranked pace while Minnesota ranks 20th in ppg offense and have gone under in 8 of the L/9 .

MINNESOTA is 7-0 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored.


DENVER is 44-20 UNDER L/64 in home games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher with a combined average 200 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 45-14 UNDER  L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA) - vs. division opponents, off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 91-57 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Pick Released on Feb 07 at 07:52 am
Feb 07 '23, 8:37 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NHL | Ducks vs Blackhawks
Play on: OVER 6 -120
Game Analysis

The Ducks have gone over in 8 of their L/9 overall and Im betting on one more over tonight vs a defensively deficient opponent that has gone over in 6 of their L/8 games overall. Over is 6-1 in Ducks last 7 road games. After playing last night in OT Im betting the Ducks will be on tired legs and could easily suffer defensively. Over is 21-6 in Ducks last 27 games following OT on the previous day.

ANAHEIM is 15-6 OVER revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. (Chicago defeated them 3-2 in an earlier meeting)

ANAHEIM is 8-1 OVER  against poor starting goalies - saving  89.5% or less of shots against over the last 2 seasons. ANAHEIM is 7-1 OVER   against mistake free teams - opponents average 4 or less power plays/game in the 2nd half of the year this season. ANAHEIM is 11-4 OVER  in road games against terrible defensive teams - allowing 3+ goals/game this season.

CHICAGO is 13-6 OVER  in home games against good offensive teams -29 or more  shots on goal, convert 17% or more pp this season.

Over is 25-12-2 in Blackhawks last 39 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

NHL Home teams against the total (CHICAGO) - poor offensive team - scoring 2.55 or less goals/game on the season - 2nd half of the season, after a blowout loss by 3 goals or more in their previous game are 32-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over 

Pick Released on Feb 07 at 07:14 am
Feb 07 '23, 7:37 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NHL | Seattle Kraken vs Islanders
Play on: Islanders -110 at Mirage [Won: $100]
Game Analysis

The Isles have new life after getting top tier scorer Bo Horvat via a trade and are currently on a 3 game win streak. Add to that the Isles have revenge on board for a ugly 4-1 loss to the Kraken on Jan 1st in Seattle  and you have an advantageous situation with a Islanders team that plays their best hockey at home.  NY ISLANDERS are 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.Kraken are 4-10 in their last 14 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Islanders are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. Pacific.

Play on the NY Islanders to win

Pick Released on Feb 07 at 07:10 am
Feb 07 '23, 7:07 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NHL | Avalanche vs Penguins
Play on: Avalanche +100 at circa [Lost: -$100]
Game Analysis

Both these teams visiting Colorado and their hosts the Pittsburgh Pens are hanging around the wild-card spots in their respective conferences. Both are in need of wins, but the superior side according to my power rankings is the defending Stanley Cup champs Avalanche.Colorado was heating up before the All-Star break, winning seven of eight and now Im betting that momentum continues here in Pittsburgh tonight.Avalanche are 22-6 in their last 28 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Avalanche are 70-24 in their last 94 vs. a team with a losing record.Penguins are 7-21 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.

NHL Road Favorites against the money line (COLORADO) - off a home win against a division rival, in February games are 23-3 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Avs to win

Pick Released on Feb 07 at 07:00 am
Feb 07 '23, 6:30 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NCAA-B | Rutgers vs Indiana
Play on: Rutgers +4½ -110 at YouWager [Lost: -$110]
Game Analysis

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Rutgers and Indiana will meet for the 16th time, with RU leading the series, . RU has ran its winning streak against the Hoosiers to six straight and eight of the past nine game and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this evening. Pikiell is 13-3 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points in all games he has coached since1997. Its going to be Rutgers extremely strong defense that gets us the cover. Note:Rutgers has been moving upward this season thanks to an outstanding defense. The Scarlet Knights are 16-1 when holding its opponent to 65 or fewer points and 8-0 when doing so in Big Ten games. Rutgers has allowed 65 points or fewer in all but 3 games this year.Scarlet Knights are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play on Rutgers to cover 

Pick Released on Feb 07 at 06:19 am
Feb 07 '23, 7:00 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NCAA-B | Toledo vs Akron
Play on: Toledo +2½ -110 at circa [Won: $100]
Game Analysis

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Toledo has won 10 of its last 13 meetings vs. Akron but dropped a 70-62 decision to the Zips in last year's MAC semifinals and now have some extra motivation with revenge on board . 

TOLEDO is 8-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.TOLEDO is 11-3 ATS  versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.TOLEDO is 11-3 ATS  versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12or less  turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

Toledo to cover

Pick Released on Feb 07 at 05:29 am
Feb 07 '23, 7:00 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NCAA-B | Cincinnati vs Tulane
Play on: UNDER 153½ -110 [Lost: -$110]
Game Analysis

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My projections estimate a total closer to 148 giving us a full two possession plus advantage to the under on this offering. 

TULANE is 36-20 UNDER  in home games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game with a combined average of 133.5 ppg in that 56 game sampling size. 


TULANE is 10-1 UNDER l/11 in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games with a combined average of 132.5 ppg scored. 

CINCINNATI  in their L/149 road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) have seen a combined average of 133.2 ppg scored. 


CINCINNATI is 6-0 UNDER  in road games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 129.1 ppg scored.

CBB  teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (TULANE) - after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more, with all five starters returning from last season are 45-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (CINCINNATI) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 60-31 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play  under

Pick Released on Feb 07 at 05:15 am

List of accomplishments

Sports
Year Accomplishment Record Win % Profit
2016 -2017 #1 in CBB 274-223 55.1% $3,265
2015 #1 in WNBA 49-32 60.5% $1,499
2014 -2015 #1 in NBA 192-148 56.5% $3,378
2022 -2023 #2 in CBB 126-79 61.5% $3,845
2018 -2019 #2 in NHL 97-67 59.2% $2,592
2017 -2018 #2 in NBA 228-179 56% $3,541
2016 -2017 #2 in NBA 238-189 55.7% $3,458
2016 -2017 #2 in Basketball 512-412 55.4% $6,723
2014 #2 in WNBA 31-27 53.5% $167
2014 #2 in CFB 92-64 59% $2,222
2014 -2015 #2 in Basketball 430-378 53.2% $2,339
2014 -2015 #3 in CFL 8-5 61.5% $260
2014 -2015 #3 in NHL 66-60 52.4% $834
2019 -2020 #4 in NHL 100-76 56.8% $2,033
2017 #4 in CFB 109-80 57.7% $2,017
2017 #4 in All Sports 1055-947 52.7% $3,438
2015 -2016 #4 in CFL 8-6 57.1% $100
2021 -2022 #5 in BOX 1-0 100% $100
2017 -2018 #5 in CFL 19-12 61.3% $565
2017 -2018 #5 in NHL 70-55 56% $1,397
2016 #5 in CFB 136-113 54.6% $1,243
2021 #6 in NFL 62-43 59.1% $1,428
2016 -2017 #6 in CFL 5-3 62.5% $175
2013 -2014 #6 in CBB 221-190 53.8% $1,502
2012 #6 in All Sports 103-74 58.2% $2,276
2019 #7 in MLB 261-235 52.6% $2,291
2017 -2018 #7 in Basketball 497-441 53% $2,110
2017 #8 in Football 158-131 54.7% $1,236
2022 -2023 #9 in BOX 1-0 100% $145
2012 -2013 #9 in Basketball 209-174 54.6% $1,798
2018 -2019 #10 in NBA 291-258 53% $1,237
2016 #10 in Football 190-167 53.2% $684
2012 -2013 #10 in NBA 95-76 55.6% $1,228

Service Alex Smart's Bio & About Section

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).