Sports Handicapper Alex Smart's Picks & Predictions

 Pittsburgh has been  one of the NHL’s most efficient offenses early this season, ranking 8th in goals per game (3.56). The Penguins have been especially strong at home (2–1), controlling possession and generating high-danger chances at a top-10 rate.

Evgeni Malkin continues to drive the attack with 14 points in eight games, while the top six has shown excellent balance—five skaters already with 3+ goals. After dropping a tough overtime loss to Columbus, this is a prime bounce-back spot  vs a  Blues team that are 1–3 on the road and rank 26th in goals per game (3.0), struggling to sustain offensive zone pressure. Their power play sits in the bottom third of the league, and they’ve averaged just 2.25 goals in away contests. Defensively, they’ve allowed 33.5 shots per game and Im betting will have problems against a Pittsburgh team that thrives on puck movement and shot volume.

Goaltender Jordan Binnington has faced 30+ shots in five of his six starts, and while he’s been very dependable ,  the caveat is a  workload that  remains unsustainable without stronger defensive structure in front of him.

Pittsburgh bounces back as host tonight vs the Blues  behind   Malkin and a deep forward group that  will outskate the Blues in transition. With their scoring depth and offensive pressure, the Penguins get the nod.

Pittsburgh on the money line after scoring 4 goals or more in 2 straight games are 6-0 L/6 dating back to last season.

Play on the Penguins to win 

The Chiefs enter as double-digit favorites for good reason. They’ve dominated this matchup recently, going 2-0 vs. Washington while outscoring them by 27 points combined. Patrick Mahomes has been surgical at home—70% completion rate, 8 TDs over his last four—and faces a Commanders defense that’s been porous through the air, ranking 27th in passing yards allowed (238.3 YPG).

Mahomes’ mobility adds another layer: Washington has struggled against mobile quarterbacks, and Mahomes’ ability to extend plays has led to over 200 rushing yards in similar spots this season. Combine that with Isiah Pacheco’s 4.8 yards per carry, and Kansas City’s offense should control tempo and time of possession.

Meanwhile, the flip-side Marcus Mariota and the Commanders’ offense have under achieved on the road, averaging just 18.7 points per game. That’s not something Commanders backers watn to hear as they face  a top-10 Chiefs defense in red-zone efficiency, which allows touchdowns on just 48% of opponent trips inside the 20. Unless Washington’s defense can generate turnovers (they’ve forced just 1.1 per game), it’s hard to expect them keeping pace in this tilt.

Ive screened multiple books and Public bettors are overwhelmingly siding with Kansas City , and sharp money has even moved  the spread upward, reflecting professional confidence in laying lumber. Chiefs  recent game scripts suggest a “controlled blowout” — where they build a lead and lean on the run game to manage the clock. Im backing Kansas City covers the number comfortably, with Mahomes and Pacheco leading a balanced, efficient attack. Washington’s scoring issues and defensive lapses make it difficult to justify backing the underdog here.

Play on the Chiefs 

The Nets look every bit as bad as their (0-3) record would indicate with their offense only averaging just 105.3 points allowed per game while shooting 42% from the field. Houston have lost both their games as well but looked competitive and will be primed to bounce back at home where they thrive. Tonight vs a Nets side on the second night of a back-to-back nights the Rockets home court advantage , and their need for a victory make them viable bets.. Houston has hit on this line 7 of L/10 as home favorites.

Play on the Rockets to cover

A revenge spot after Minnesota's season-opening win vs the Nuggets . Jokic matches up well here and will take advantage of the Wolves front-court depth issues. Note: The Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in divisional road games and have an advantage vs a exhausted Minny side on a back-to-back scheduling situation.

Play on the Nuggets to cover

Despite Boston's 0-3 start which were closes losses to top tier teams). Im betting the Celtics elite defense (top-3 in opponent eFG%) makes them a dangerous road pup. Meanwhile, New Orleans (0-2) struggles at home so far this season allowing 118+ in both losses . The differnece maker according to my projections Tatum/Brown will be the difference makers.

New Orleans on the money line in the first half of the season are 5-28 L/33 since last season.

NBA team like New Orleans vs the money line - off a home loss against a division rival, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 7+ losses in last 8 games are 3-26 since 1997.

Play on the Celtics to cover