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ALEX WOOD (L) vs. STEPHEN STRASBURG (R)
Strasburg the Nats starter today is in top form of late, going 3-0 along with garnering a stingy 2.61 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill and gets my support here today vs a LA Dodgers team tht has lost 19 of their L/27 games vs a RHP starter. Meanwhile, Alex Wood the Dodgers starter is a off a good effort last time out, but that has not been a recipe for continued success as his team is 0-4 when he is off a quality outing.
STEPHEN STRASBURG is 14-0 against the money line in May games over the last 3 seasons. WOOD is 6-18 against the money line in day games in his career.
Someone seems to like Sunday baseball. STRASBURG teams when he starts are 28-4 against the money line when playing on Sunday .Nationals are 58-18 in Strasburgs last 76 starts. Nationals are 14-3 in game 3 of a series.
MLB All favorites with a money line of -150 or more on the opening line (WASHINGTON) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) are 88-21 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Washington Nationals to win on the moneyline
Phoenix looks set to play much better defense than many might give them credit for being able to do. I watched portions of their opening win vs a potent Dallas offense, and feel confident they matchup well vs Seattle and have the ability to slow them down offensively and clamp down a side that takes way to many three pointers to compete. I'm betting on this game staying on the low side of the number. My own Totals projections set this numbers at 154 to 156 so we have value on this line.
Phoenix opened their season with a 86-78 win as 5 point chalk vs Dallas and look like viable underdogs in this spot vs the Seattle Storm. PHOENIX is 6-0 ATS in road games off a win against a division rival over the last few seasons.
Mercury C Brittney Griner looks primed for a season as does C Marie Gulich. F DeWanna Bonner, back after having twins, plus former Fever PG Briann January. Finish off with future HOF Diana Taurasi and you have a dangerous Mercury side to back vs a Storm side depends way to much on 3 point shooting and veteran Bird who at 37 has slowed considerably despite of still having great basketball prowess.
WNBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PHOENIX) - vs. division opponents, off an home win scoring 85 or more points are a long term good bet going 63-32 L/21 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Phoenix Mercury to cover
The core of the Sparks that led to success recently remains intact as F Nneka Ogwumike (2016 MVP) and F/C Candace Parker (2008, '13 MVP) are still on the court . New faces include veteran G Cappie Pondexter and rookie C Maria Vadeeva and make them viable contenders. Their two way play is their strength , and I'm betting it keeps them in this game vs Minnesota side that had to replace a lot of their bench in the off season. The defending champs beat the Sparks in last years finals , and are a still a top tier team, but their overloaded veteran presence , makes them vulnerable to injuries and exhaustion late in games, and their hunger to beat up on a team they beat last season, may be less their opponents urge for revenge. Take the points in what should be a competitive game.
LOS ANGELES is 27-15 ATS in all games dating back to last season.
WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) - solid team from last season - outscored opponents by 6 or more points/game, vs. division opponents are 26-5 L/21 seasons for a powerful 84% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the LA Sparks to cover
|2015||Ranked #1 in WNBA||49-32||60.5%||$1,499|
|2014 -2015||Ranked #1 in NBA||192-148||56.5%||$3,378|
|2016 -2017||Ranked #2 in NBA||238-189||55.7%||$3,458|
|2016 -2017||Ranked #2 in CBB||274-223||55.1%||$3,265|
|2016 -2017||Ranked #2 in Basketball||512-412||55.4%||$6,723|
|2014 -2015||Ranked #3 in NHL||66-60||52.4%||$834|
|2014||Ranked #3 in CFB||92-64||59%||$2,222|
|2014 -2015||Ranked #3 in Basketball||430-378||53.2%||$2,339|
|2017||Ranked #4 in CFB||109-80||57.7%||$2,017|
|2017||Ranked #5 in All Sports||1055-947||52.7%||$3,438|
|2014||Ranked #5 in WNBA||31-27||53.5%||$167|
|2014 -2015||Ranked #5 in CFL||8-5||61.5%||$260|
|2016||Ranked #7 in CFB||136-113||54.6%||$1,243|
|2015 -2016||Ranked #7 in CFL||8-6||57.1%||$100|
|2012||Ranked #7 in All Sports||103-74||58.2%||$2,276|
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Experience & Awards
I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years.
My picks have been documented for 18 years. I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.
My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.
I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigous event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!
I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.
I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis.
I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.
My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.
Sports Betting Is An Investment
Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures.
Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.
I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.
In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.
I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!
This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!
To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.
If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets.
This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.
Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.
1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.
2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.
3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.
4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.
5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.
6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.
These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.
I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.
*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled. These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.