Sports Handicapper Alex Smart's Picks & Predictions

L Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 6 - HOU leads 3-2

The Yankees likely will open Game 6 with Chad Green, JA Happ two hurlers that my power rankings suggest the Astros matchup very well against. Overall this a bullpen day, and from a statistical matchup , yes the Yanks look to have an edge if using regular season stats, but from a tactical standpoint  the use of key Astros pitchers Im betting will be the difference maker. Also Urquidy a hurler who has rebounded well from Tommy John surgery is a guy that has the ability to go long here as is evident by a 40:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 33 MLB innings of work. This Astros hurler has some nasty stuff that the Yanks have not seen , which is an obvious advantage. 

HOUSTON is 52-13 against the money line in home games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. 

Note: Since the 2005 season MLB playoff series (games 5-7), home teams  have an edge, going 45-36 (55.6%). 

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (HOUSTON) - ice cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games are 52-18 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.  

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the ML

The Leafs might without scoring star John Tavares, but they are far from without extensive fire power as Ilya Mikheyev will join Mitch Marner and Alex Kerfoot on the top line. This will be the first meeting between them and the visiting Bruins since last seasons play offs, that saw the Buds eliminated during what was a year that was promising for the Leafs. With revenge on board vs their rivals I look for the Leafs to come out here with fire and purpose and to get the victory. 

Toronto is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Boston.

Play on the Toronto Maple Leafs to win on the ML

The St.Louis Blues are on a 3 game losing streak, and showing signs of a Stanley Cup hangover. Im betting on  on star Habs goalie Price who  is 6-6-2 with a 2.61 goals-against average versus St. Louis to be the difference maker today. .St. Louis is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 games at home.Montreal is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road.

Play on the Montreal Canadians to win on the ML

The Isles are a well coached  top tier defensive team behind Barry Trotz, and are dangerous dogs having won 6 of their L/9 road games dating back to last season, and on a current 3 game win streak including a 3-1 win vs Winnipeg on Thursday night. Now going against a stripped down Columbus side that no longer packs alot of offensive firepower the Jackets are vulnerable against this type of opponent. 

Play on the NY Islanders to win on the ML

  Old Dominion enters this game in complete disarray and  has dropped five straight  games SU  and have been out yarded by almost 100 ypg while UAB has won 5 of their L/6 and gaining momentum.  UAB has held  3 of your last four opponents to season-low yards, and are currently on a 15 game home winning streak and more than capable of exploding here today and cashing as DD home chalk . 

UAB is 6-0 ATS  in October games over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 21.3 ppg.

CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UAB) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UAB Blazers to cover 

 Army enters this game against Georgia State having lost two games in a row including their last game against Western Kentucky where they only scored eight points. This is an Army team I respect but there are obviously issues moving the ball right now. Meanwhile, Georgia State is an explosive offensive side, that always has a punchers chance against heavy weights because of their explosiveness.This is Georgia States 6th game but they   have been favoured in only one of the tilts but still have four wins on the campaign and get my support getting points here as a under rated home dog.

Panthers are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Panthers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in October.Panthers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

Charlotte continues to get to much respect from the linesmakers as they enter this tilt off three straight losses with their only two wins this season coming against FCS school Gardner Webb and one FBS program that is in a shambles UMass. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky despite of losing their starting QB a few weeks ago continue to show upward momentum having  won three 3 straight and 4 of their L/5 behind a very strong D, that is allowing just 18.5 ppg. 

Bottom line here is that Western Kentucky according to my power rankings is set the superior side playing at home with revenge for a ugly 40-14 loss last season,  now will be primed for payback. 

CFB  A home team (W KENTUCKY) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 23-2 SU L/27 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +20.2 ppg. 

Western Kentucky to cover 

Tulane beat  up on Memphis, by a 40-24 count, last year as a 14-point home dog .Now Im betting they  can turn the trick and more importantly cover here vs a Tigers team that had their undefeated season come to end last week and that will now be in an emotional let down state and very vulnerable. 

Memphis has failed to cover 6 of their L/7 as home chalk of 9 points or less.MEMPHIS is 8-22 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TULANE) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MEMPHIS) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 14-44 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

Georgia lost an ugly OT game by a 20-17 count at  home last time out to South Carolina  and now getting to the College Football Playoff looks like a broken dream which will have the Dogs in a letdown situation here vs a under rated opponent.  Bulldogs QB Jake Fromm,just didn't have it last time out, and in the process showed me he's not ready for prime time games just yet . Meanwhile, the Wildcats are tough blue collar team that is  5-2 ATS as dogs of 10 or more points, and despite of playing with a back up QB Lynn Bowden Jr. who is also their best WR the Cats won a 24-20 battle vs. Arkansas. Bowden who is a complete athlete rushed for 196 yards, and completed 7 of 11 passes, including a TD pass and must be respected here even against Georgia.

GEORGIA is 18-34 ATS  in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

CFB Home favorites (GEORGIA) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival against opponent off a home win are 18-50 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs (KENTUCKY) - off a home win against a conference rival against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival are 34-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kentucky to cover 

The  Arizona State Sun Devils  upset the Utah Utes, 38-20, as 7-point dogs last season, and now Utah has revenge on board. It must be noted that HC Whittingham when seeking revenge and simultaneously  getting a win, is 14-0 ATS L/14 opportunities. Meanwhile, Arizona State 5-1 on the season is off a back and forth underdog win vs Washington State last time out winning on their final drive of the game, and now will be in an emotional letdown situation vs an explosive opponent with a vendetta to achieve. Utah has out yarded their opposition by 194 Ypg and have held five teams to season low yards. More of the same over powering one way action is on tap here according to my projections. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UTAH) - after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 39-12 ATS L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Utes to cover 

Mark Rhules undefeated Baylor Bears come to Oklahoma State to take on the Pokes in a Saturday afternoon tilt.   We all know how explosive the Cowboys offence is but the  the defense they are  going against  is holding opponents to just 17ppg and only one opponent the Red Raiders put more than 21 points on the board. Meanwhile, Baylors  QB Charlie Brewer is a extremely smart athlete  that does not make a lot of mistakes and until his last game did not throw an interception. That kind of discipline and mind set really makes the Bears a hard team to beat, thus getting points here in my betting opinion  golden. 

 Rhule is 10-1 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry in all games.Rhule is 23-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached .

Rhule is 38-18 ATS in conference games in his career and , 21-7 ATS away, and 13-1 ATS on the road against opponents coming off a loss like Oklahoma State. ( The Cowboys lost to Texas Tech last time out a team Baylor beat)

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA ST) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 24-60 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs (BAYLOR) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 44-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baylor to cover