Free College Football Picks

Thursday card has the Triple Perfect NFL Top Totals System play and Afternoon Europa League Soccer. CFB Comp play below

At 7 eastern the Comp play is on Troy +13 points. The Trojans have on all 9 in the series with Teas ST and Rob notes that Thursday road favorites of 10 or more coming in off a loss have failed to cover 12 of 15 vs a team off a home loss. Texas St blew a 22 point lead in their loss to Sam Houston St on Saturday and they could be a bit flat off such a bad loss. Look for Troy to cover here. Rob V-

Ricky's 1* play on UTEP.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Texas El Paso are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in October.

- Sam Houston State are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games on the road.

- Texas El Paso are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against an opponent in the Conference USA conference.

Verdict: The value is on the home underdog.

 The college football contest between Sam Houston State and Texas El Paso (UTEP) on Thursday, October 3, 2024, looks to be a significant matchup, especially given the stark contrasts in the teams' current form. Sam Houston State is coming off a thrilling comeback victory over Texas State, bringing their record to 4-1. They have been solid on both sides of the ball, averaging 30 points per game while allowing 24.4 points on defense. Quarterback Hunter Watson has been versatile, contributing both through the air with 635 passing yards and on the ground with 337 rushing yards. Their run game, ranking 19th nationally, will likely be a key weapon against UTEP's struggling defense. UTEP, on the other hand, has had a rough season so far, sitting winless at 0-4. Offensively, they've only averaged 14.5 points per game, one of the lowest in the nation. Despite some bright spots, such as quarterback Skyler Locklear's 710 passing yards, their overall offensive production has been weak. Defensively, UTEP allows over 30 points per game, which could prove problematic against Sam Houston's balanced attack. The Bearkats are favored by 10.5 points, and while I don't like normally laying big numbers on the road, this should be a blowout for the Bearkats with their superior offense and defense. Play Sam Houston State.

Rocketman Sports FREE CFB play Thursday 10-3-24

Sam Houston State @ UTEP  (9:00 PM EST)
Play On:  Sam Houston State -9 1/2 -120

The Sam Houston State Bearkats travel to UTEP to take on the Miners on Thursday night.  Sam Houston State is 4-1 SU overall this year while UTEP comes in with an 0-4 SU overall record on the season.  Sam Houston State is 7-1 ATS last 8 games overall.  Sam Houston State is 5-0 ATS last 5 games against Conference USA opponents.  UTEP is 0-7 SU last 7 games overall.  UTEP is 0-6 SU last 6 home games.  UTEP is 1-9 ATS last 10 games against an opponent with revenge.  UTEP is 0-7 ATS last 7 games as conference home dogs less than 25 points against a better than .500 team.  We'll recommend a small play on Sam Houston State tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Navy at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Air Force was a complete no-show on the road against Wyoming last Saturday. The Falcons have now lost three games in a row while Navy checks in a perfect 4-0 on the season. Of course, you can throw records out the window when the service academies do battle for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. No team has won the trophy in consecutive years since Navy accomplished that feat in 2012-13. Air Force last won it in 2022 with Navy having not taken it home since 2019. But I digress. While Navy's perfect start is impressive, it's not as if it has faced a ton of resistance. The win over Memphis was nice but that came at home. Air Force obviously has a lot to prove this week and given its schedule ahead, a win this week could catapult it into a nice comeback. The Falcons have taken each of the last four meetings in this series and I look for them to take this game down to the wire at the very least on Saturday. Take Air Force.

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Indiana/Northwestern UNDER 41.5

The new field the Northwestern Wildcats are playing on this season is right on the lake.  It gets affected by wind a lot more than most stadiums, and it's almost always windy there.  There will be 15-20 MPH sustained winds on Saturday when the Wildcats host the Indiana Hoosiers.  We saw a similar forecast when Northwestern played Duke earlier this season in a game that was tied 13-13 at the end of regulation.  Both of these defenses are very strong.  Northwestern gives up 302 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.  Indiana gives up 239.6 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play.  I can't see Northwestern topping 10 points in this game, and I'm confident the Wildcats can hold the Hoosiers to 24 to 31 points.  Give me the UNDER.

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Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick

PLAY ON: Indiana -13.5 

Give me the Hoosiers laying less than two touchdowns on the road against Northwestern. This line almost feels too good to be true, but the books haven't been close on the spread for Indiana games this season.

I just don't think people realize how good this Hoosiers team is. Indiana ranks in No. 11 in the country with 513 yards/game. They are No. 10 with an average of 7.6 yards/play. It's not just the offense. The defense ranks No. 10 in total defense allowing 239.6 ypg and 15th in yards/play at 4.2. I just don't see where the points will come from for the Wildcats. Northwestern ranks 121st in total offense at 294.5 ypg and 121st in yards/play at 4.6. The Wildcats had 112 total yards in their last game against Washington.

Big deal Northwestern is at home and coming off a bye. They are a bad team. Indiana may have found something in first year head coach Curt Cignetti. Guy had a 119-35 career record at JMU, Elon and IUP. He's got a team sitting at 5-0 that finished last year 3-9 and was picked by almost everyone to finish in the bottom half of the now 18-team Big ten. Give me the Hoosiers -13.5! 

This is a FREE PLAY on the UNDER Alabama/Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS after last week's 30-27 OT loss at Missouri. It easily covered with the 17.5-point spread. Note that Despite last week's game going OVER the number, dating to late year Vandy has still seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

While the Tigers have scored plenty of points leading up to this point, they now face their stiffest defensive test so far this season in Alabama, which is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS following last week's 41-34 shootout over Georgia. Previous to that the Tide conceded just 26 points over three games.

Both teams will be looking to establish the run throughout. This SEC battle has "under" written all over it in my opinion.

Consider the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Alabama/Vanderbilt OVER 55.5

The Key: The forecast looks perfect for a shootout this afternoon between Alabama and Vanderbilt with temperatures in the 80's and almost zero wind.  Vanderbilt has another poor defense this year, but their offense is vastly improved with Diego Pavia at quarterback.  They are 26th in the country in scoring offense at 37 PPG.  They are up against an Alabama offense that may be the best in school history.  The Crimson Tide rank 8th in scoring offense at 47 PPG and just hung 41 points on Georgia last week to prove what they are capable of.  The defense has taken a step back this season under Kalen DeBoer, who is an offensive guys taking over for the defensive-minded Nick Saban.  This total should be in the 60's.  Take the OVER.

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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #390 Minnesota Golden Gophers over USC Trojans (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 5 BTN) Just do not expect Minnesota to meltdown like Wisconsin did last week against USC. The Trojans are not strong in the trenches, and I do not believe they will be able to convert a high percentage of third downs like they did last week. Minnesota took Michigan to the wire last week, a team that beat USC earlier this season and I think they can do the same on Saturday. Look for a lower scoring game and getting points is the way to go. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend Football Card, as we will have a bounce back week. Sign-up now with a long term package and let 53 years of handicapping experience work for you.

PSP Data Driven 1* free pick on Over. 

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Over. The Gators run defense ranks at the bottom of the SEC. Central Florida ranks #1 in the country in rushing offense.

1* NCAAF - UCF/Florida FREE PICK on Florida +2.5

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: California +10.5

I successfully faded Miami last week with Virginia Tech +19.5 in a game the Hokies nearly won outright.  It was the Hurricanes' toughest test of the season to date.  I am going against them again here Saturday in what will now be their toughest game yet as they hit the road to face a very underrated Cal Bears team.

The Bears have a big rest and preparation advantage coming in off a bye week.  I imagine it was a very productive bye week considering they were coming off a tough 14-9 loss at Florida State in a game they had no business losing.  The Bears outgained the Seminoles 410 to 284, or by 126 total yards.

Cal's 21-14 win at Auburn looks very impressive and there was nothing fluky about that victory.  The Bears outgained the Tigers 332 to 286 for the game.  That's the only game Auburn has been outgained in this season as the Tigers let both Oklahoma and Arkansas off the hook with turnovers.  They should be 4-1, and if they were that win by Cal would be getting a lot more attention than it is.

Justin Wilcox is a great defensive coach and will use those two weeks to come up with the proper game plan to slow down Cam Ward and this Miami offense.  The Bears rank 12th in the country in scoring defense at 12.8 points per game, 23rd in total defense at 287.5 yards per game and 17th at 4.4 yards per play.  Wilcox is 40-25 ATS as an underdog as the head coach of the Bears.  Bet California Saturday.

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