Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #152 Saturday Free Pick Air Force Falcons (+) vs Boise State Broncos @ 6 ET - This is all about the value. I know the Falcons had major roster turnover coming into this strange season but getting two TDs at home here when coming off an embarrassing loss is simply too much. I am sure Air Force is going to respond after an embarrassing effort on offense against the Spartans at San Jose State last week. The Falcons defense has played well this season and they are allowing only 12 points and 267.5 yards per game. I know Boise State is a very strong team but they faced a Utah State team last week that has plenty of issues and that game was in Idaho. Now the Broncos play their first road game of the season and plus one could argue that they are in a bit of a lookahead because they have BYU on deck. No, that is not a conference game like this one is but the Cougars are undefeated and highly ranked and the Broncos might already be thinking about that game. That will prove to be a mistake as the Falcons were also a sizable dog in their other home game this season and they won that game 40 to 7. Now I am certainly not suggesting that they will win this game outright as Boise State is one tough customer. But each of the last two meetings between these teams were decided by 11 or less points and I expect the Falcons to lose this game by a single score and, if not, then no more than 11 points just like each of the last two meetings. FREE PICK Air Force
$$ Saturday Featured Free Play $$
The Saturday Comp play is on the Under in the Miss. St at Alabama game at 7:00 eastern. Miss St is the number one defense in the SEC under offensive minded coach Leach whose offense has looked inept thus far. Miss St has gone under in 5 of 6 if they had 275 or less yards last out, 13 of 16 if they allowed 170 or less yards passing and 5 of 6 under off a 10+ point home loss. Alabama is a staggering 2-23 under at home after allowing 7 or less points and 4 of 5 under after a game where they had 450+ yards. These two have gone under in 10 of 12. Bama will win easy here but the games stays under. For the Comp play. Play Under Miss. St and Alabama. Rob V- GC Sports.
Saturday card has an executive Level Tier 1, the College Dog of the Year and a 6* Perfect System Blowout. CFB 6-0 last Saturday. We also have soccer and UFC.
PICK - Penn State Nittany Lions +12.5
Give me double-digits with Penn State at home against the Buckeyes. I think we are getting big value here from last week's results.
The Nittany Lions lost 35-36 at Indiana as a 7-point favorite. That's a much better Indiana team than I think most people realize. Not taking anything away from them, but they had a lot of breaks go their way. Penn State outgained the Hoosiers 488 to 211. It's hard to lose a game with that big of an edge in yards, especially when you hold the opposing under 220.
Ohio State won and covered in a 52-17 win at home against Nebraska as a 28-point favorite. The numbers were solid for the Buckeyes. They outgained the Cornhuskers 491-370, but that was a very close game early. It was tied 14-14 late in the 1st half before Ohio State took control.
Some very concerning things from that game. Nebraska had 210 rushing yards on 36 attempts, which comes out to 5.8 yards/carry. That's a far cry from the defense they had last year, which finished up allowing just 104 ypg and 3.0 yards/carry.
I just don't see that elite defensive linemen that this defense has had for years now. You have to go back to 2012 to find the last Ohio State team that didn't have either Joey Bosa, Nick Bosa or Chase Young on the defensive side.
I know Fields was great against Nebraska. He only had one incomplete pass, going 20 of 21 for 276 yards and 2 scores. He also led the team with 15 carries and 54 yards rushing.
I just wonder how much of that was playing a bad Nebraska defense.
Penn State held a good Indiana run game to just 41 yards on 26 attempts (1.6 yards/carry). Indiana running back Stevie Scott was a guy a lot of people had pegged as a 1st-Team All-Big Ten RB (2nd-Team last year).
I think if they can slow down the run game, they can make it hard on this offense. Last year Penn State held Ohio State to just 3.8 yards/carry. Fields was 16 of 22, but only had 188 yards. Buckeyes only scored 28.
I not only think the Nittany Lions keep this close. I think they can win outright. In the last 4 meetings, Penn State is just 1-3 SU, but two of those losses were by a mere 1-point and the other was by only 11. Give me the Nittany Lions +12.5!
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Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Texas A&M -12
The Texas A&M Aggies are the second-best team in the SEC in my opinion behind Alabama. They have opened 3-1 this season with their only loss coming to Alabama. They were only outgained by 94 yards by the Crimson Tide as it was a much closer game than the final score would suggest. They also beat Florida at home this season.
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Arkansas Razorbacks now. The Razorbacks are 2-2 SU and a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as they have greatly exceeded expectations. But it’s worth noting the Razorbacks have been very fortunate as they have been outgained in all four of their games thus far. Texas A&M has outgained every opponent outside Alabama by 108 yards or more.
I think the Razorbacks get a dose of reality here as they take a big step up in class against the Aggies. This will be similar to their 10-37 home loss to Georgia to open the season. I think Georgia and Texas A&M are neck-and-neck for the second-best team in the conference and I’d give a slight edge to the Aggies. So they should be able to cover this 12-point spread coming off their bye week.
The Aggies are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games as favorites. The Razorbacks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Aggies should have no problem winning this game by two touchdowns or more. Bet Texas A&M Saturday.
No. 6 Ranked Overall Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 38 months! He is riding a 1702-1439 Run L1148 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $132,460!
No. 3 Ranked Football Capper All-Time! Jack has put together a MASSIVE 1186-987 Football Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $101,410! That includes a 510-390 Football Run over his last 900 plays!
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ASA FREE PLAY ON: Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) versus Oklahoma Sooners, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET -A lot of points to be giving Texas Tech as a home dog. The Red Raiders did get blasted at Oklahoma last season but they tend to be a different team when in Lubbock. Texas Tech lost to the Sooners by only 5 points in the most recent as a host. The Red Raiders lost by only 7 to Texas here and that was a game that went to OT which Texas Tech should have won outright in regulation time. The Red Raiders now enter this game having allowed 31 points or less in 3 straight games. The Sooners have been held to 35 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Per our computer math model, Oklahoma is going to struggle to cover the big number posted on this game and the big underdog is the play in this one. FREE PLAY Texas Tech (+) points
My free play is on North Carolina at 4:00 ET.
Mack Brown began his coaching career at Appalachian St (one season) and then three at Tulane, before arriving in Chapel Hill beginning in 1988. He went 1-10 his first two seasons but then led North Carolina to EIGHT consecutive winning season, the last six ending with a bowl appearance. His final season (1997) saw North Carolina finish 10-1 and ranked fourth in the AP's final poll. He ten had a VERY successful run at Texas, before resigning in 2013. He found a home in the TV studio but then surprised most by returning to coach at North Carolina in 2019. A 6-6 regular season was followed by a Military Bowl win, giving the Tar Heels a 7-6 record. Big things were expected for North Carolina in 2020, as the Tar Heels were ranked 18th in the AP's preseason poll. Carolina has opened 3-0 and were ranked No. 5 in the AP poll (the school's highest ranking since 1997), but were upset 31-28 at FSU on Oct 17. The Tar heels rebounded with a 48-21 home win over NC State last Saturday and are 4-1 and ranked 18th as they visit Charlottesville to play Virginia on the final day of October.
Bronco Mendenhall came to UVa after 11 seasons at BYU where he led the Cougars to a bowl game each season. He took over in 2016 and the Cavs finished 2-10 (so much for his 11-year bowl streak). However, he led the Cavs to three straight bowl games from 2017-19 and last season, won the school's first-ever ACC Coastal title plus ended an embarrassing 15-year losing streak to Va Tech with a 39-30 victory. UVa open the 2020 season with a 38-20 win over Duke but it's been all downhill from there, with the Cavs losing FOUR in a row, allowing 39.7 PPG in the team's first three losses, before losing 19-14 at Miami last Saturday in a game played in heavy rain.
North Carolina QB Sam Howell passed for 353 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions against Virginia in last year's meeting but the Tar Heels lost 38-31 loss at home to the Cavs (UVa has won THREE straight over North Carolina). The sophomore QB is having a good season so far, completing 64.2% for 1,403 yards with 10 TDs and just four INTs. The good news for Carolina fans is that Howell will face a Virginia team with the ACC's worst pass defense (286.0 YPG). Howell also gets terrific help from an OUTSTANDING pair of RBs in Carter (584 yards / 7.9 YPC / 3 TDs) and Williams (562 yards / 6.9 YPC / 10 TDs).
Virginia can't match North Carolina's offensive 'punch,' with two mediocre QBs in plus a running game that's top rusher (Taulapapa) has just 301 yards on 4.9 YPC and three TDs. Then, there a VERY shaky defense that I'll already discussed (see above), which will have to contain a North Carolina offense that has topped 500 yards in THREE straight games!
This is the 125th meeting of "The South's Oldest Rivalry," with North Carolina holding a 63-57-4 edge in the series. Virginia has won the last three meetings but exactly 50 years ago, the Tar Heels won the only previous time they met on Halloween, 30-15 on Oct 31, 1970. A two-TD margin of victory sounds about right on Halloween 2020!
Between Friday Night and Saturday, I will get you paid in college football as I have my NCAAF 2-0 FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS WINNER, my HIGH ROLLER, my 72% NO LIMIT, and my strongest play this month, my NCAAF GAME OF THE MONTH. Grab a broom because we will SWEEP THE BOARD.
Saturdays; FREE WINNER: BYU
7:15 pm pst.
There are some games you automatically circle as you are running down the schedule. There some game you cross off right away. And there are some games you might put a question mark next to and go back to later. This game is one I question marked then went back to and circled in ball point pen because it is a winner. BYU, which is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season, only has two games remaining on the schedule (Kinda' funny how some teams haven't even set foot on the gridiron yet, but this team is almost done LOL). Formerly an Independent and playing in the WCC for 2020, the Cougars must keep their foot on the gas and crush all adversaries. In the newest AP rankings, they are 11th, with two one-loss teams ahead of them in the polls (Georgia 5th, Texas A&M 13th). Even a poor outing may drop them in the rankings. Knowing this, they have had zero reservations about running up scores. The team has already covered point spreads of 24 and 30 points.
This is certainly a step up in class for a Western Kentucky team that is just 2-4 SU and have failed to cover a single outing this campaign. The Hilltoppers (lack of) offense is accounting for a dismal, 17.7 PPG Look for BYU quarterback, Zach Wilson (1,928 yards passing, 16/1) to continue to thrive and put himself even closer to Trevor Lawrence in the Heisman talk.
BYU is 7-1 ATS the last eight vs. CUSA, 4-1 ATS last five in October, and 9-3 ATS L12 following an ATS win. Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS L4 in October, 0-3-1 ATS L4 on the road, and 0-5-1 ATS L6 following an ATS loss. This game gets out of hand. BYU minus the points will add to your bankroll. Take the Cougars. Thank you.
Dave’s Saturday Free Play:
1* on Nevada -14
The Key: I was on Nevada last week in their upset win over Wyoming. And I’m on them again this week for many of the same reasons. This Nevada team is good enough to win the Mountain West or at least challenge Boise State for the title. They returned 17 starters this year under Jay Norvell, have a dominant offense with 10 starters back and have a huge defensive line that can stop the run. They racked up 496 total yards on a good Wyoming defense and held the Cowboys to 361 yards, including just 128 rushing on 35 carries. Now they want to avenge their upset loss to rival UNLV last year. This is a horrible UNLV team in transition under first-year head coach Marcus Arroyo. They lost 6-34 to San Diego State last week while getting outgained 186 to 424 yards. Nevada is better than San Diego State this season, if not on par with them at the very least. The Wolf Pack are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Take Nevada.
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