Free College Football Picks

Under 48.5 in Buffalo. That’s the one I want and recommending to all of you.

Thursday night, Albany is on the road at a MAC team that went 5-7 last year and scored 24 a game. Buffalo is laying 24 and a half. They should win. They do not need a 35-burger to get it done. The books hanging 48.5 already told you this is supposed to stay small. Week 1, first Thursday, rust, backups late. That’s punts. Not a track meet.

Albany already played. They beat New Hampshire 28-14 and the under cashed at 46.5. Last season they averaged 16.3 points. That’s two scores and a kick if everything is clean. They are not walking into Broadview and hanging 28. Buffalo scored 24 a night in 2025 and allowed 23.5. Close games. Ugly games. Not 50-point games.

Shop 48 if you can get it. Don’t wait around for 47 and watch the number leave.

Simple way to look at it: if each team puts up 21, you are already home.

That’s under 48.5 with six points to spare. Twenty-one is three scores. Asking for 49 in an opener with a three-touchdown spread is a lot. Buffalo 28, Albany 14 is 42. Buffalo 31, Albany 10 is 41. The over needs a leftover touchdown and a special-teams mistake. Week 1 does not give those away as often as people think.

Add last year’s averages and you get the same picture.

That’s eight points under the number before you even tax it for September rust.

Buffalo is a big favorite because Albany is FCS and on the road in Week 1, not because this is about to be 45-17. If the Bulls cover and it finishes 31-7, the under still cashes. Spread and total are different tickets. Take the one that pays when the night stays quiet.

A few spots that keep showing up in this look:

Bet under the total in Albany games as a road underdog.
The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 5-0 (100%) with an average over/under of 51.5. (+5.0 units, ROI = 90.9%)

Bet under the total in Buffalo home games when the number is 50 or lower.
The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 6-2 (75%) with an average over/under of 48.8. (+3.6 units, ROI ≈ 45%)

Bet under in Week 1 MAC home games against FCS when the total is 50 or lower.
The Under’s record the last two seasons: 7-2 (77.8%) with an average over/under of 49.1. (+4.4 units, ROI ≈ 49%)

Bet under when Albany plays an FBS team and the number is 52 or lower.
The Under’s record since 2025: 4-1 (80%) with an average over/under of 50.2. (+2.6 units, ROI ≈ 52%)

Grab 48.5. If a shop is still at 49, that’s fine too. I would not start on Buffalo −24.5 when the total is the cleaner number. Check the wind off the lake closer to kick. Keep the unit small. It’s still the first week. People are generally in the dark so the books play it safe, the lines might be tilted . This one that looks a little crooked and a viable early season bet.

Under 48.5, Albany at Buffalo. That’s the play.

Sam Houston/ Troy Over 53 1.1% Free play