Free College Football Picks

For my best free pick here on Friday Night in College Football I am looking at the Louisville Cardinals at the Miami Hurricanes. Tremendous year for the Hurricanes as I backed them in the beginning when they were under the radar good and now as usual they are over bet and over priced here. Miami has covered 3 straight while the Cardinals only 1 cover in the last 5 games. Louisville looks to avenge last year’s 52-45 loss in their stadium I think they can at least keep this game within single digits. 

Play on the Louisville Cardinals plus the points rotation #315

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Rocketman Sports FREE CFB play Friday 10-17-25

Louisville @ Miami Florida  (7:00 PM EST)
Play On:  Louisville +13 1/2

The Louisville Cardinals travel to Miami to take on the Hurricanes on Friday night.  

The most telling signal in this matchup isn't the box score projections—it's the market's sharp pivot. The spread opened at Nebraska -9.5 but has since tumbled to -7 (with some books holding at -7.5), crossing that pivotal key number of 7. This isn't random noise; it's a classic overreaction to Nebraska's shiny 5-1 record, where the public fixates on blowout wins against lesser foes and envisions another rout on the road. But dig deeper, and the narrative crumbles: The Cornhuskers are 0-3 against the spread in their three games versus Power 4 opponents this season, failing to cover even in victories.

Nebraska's offense has hummed under Matt Rhule, averaging north of 30 points per game and leaning on a balanced attack that's kept them in the Top 25 conversation. Yet their defense—ranked outside the top 50 in yards allowed—has been the Achilles' heel, particularly against teams that control the clock and grind out possessions. Enter Minnesota, a classic PJ Fleck squad built for trench warfare and home field resilience at Huntington Bank Stadium. The Gophers (4-2) haven't covered against Power 4 foes either, but they've kept every contest within one score, showcasing the grit that defines Fleck's "Row the Boat" ethos.

History tilts heavily toward the underdog here. Fleck owns a perfect 5-0 record against Nebraska since taking the reins in 2017, including a 54-21 demolition in his debut year that still stands as the Gophers' highest scoring Big Ten output in decades. Add in the swirling distractions for Rhule—fresh rumors linking him to Penn State's vacancy after James Franklin's firing—and it's easy to see focus waning at a vulnerable moment. Rhule has publicly recommitted to Lincoln, calling it a "destination job," but the timing couldn't be worse for a road tilt against a heated rival.

Bottom line: This shapes up as a sneaky close one, with Minnesota's physicality and home edge neutralizing Nebraska's momentum. Lay off the favorite—back the Gophers +7 as your core play, and sprinkle a unit on the +240 moneyline for that high upside pop if they steal it outright. Total? Lean under 47.5 in a battle of attrition.

Let's cash some tickets!

1* Free Pick on North Carolina +9 -110

1* Bet on North Carolina +9

1* Free Wiseguy Play on North Carolina +9 -110

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

Free Pick on North Carolina +9 -110

1% GOLD RUSH on Washington/Michigan: over 50½

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Vanderbilt -2.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are favored for good reason Saturday as they host LSU.  The Commodores are 5-1 this season with their lone loss coming on the road at Alabama where they had their chances to pull off the upset, but two red zone turnovers did them in.  Their five wins have all come by 20 points or more this season.

This is a great spot for the Commodores as they had a bye week following the Alabama game, and they will come back fresh and ready to go for this huge home game against LSU.  This will be one of the best home atmospheres for Vanderbilt in program history.

LSU has been far from impressive this during its 5-1 start this season.  The win over Clemson doesn't look as good now, they benefitted from 5 interceptions by Florida and were out-first downed 23-10 by the Gators in a 20-10 home win, and their 24-19 loss at Ole Miss was misleading as they were outgained by 224 yards by the Rebels.

While both defenses are equally good, the difference in this game is Vanderbilt has the much more explosive offense.  LSU has scored 23 points or fewer in five of its six games with the lone exception being against FCS SE Louisiana.  The Tigers were held to 23 points by LA Tech, and they have been held to 20 points or fewer in all four of their games against Power 4 opponents.

While LSU averages just 25.8 points per game this season, Vanderbilt averages 43.2 points per game, 468.5 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play on offense.  Diego Pavia is one of the most underrated QB's in the country, completing 71% of his passes with 14 TD's while also rushing for 352 yards and two scores.  I trust him and this Commodores offense to make a few more plays in this one to get the win and cover.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

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1* NCAAF - LSU/Vanderbilt FREE  PICK on Vanderbilt -2.5

Oklahoma-South Carolina 

Opener: Oklahoma -4, 42.5

Lookahead line: Oklahoma -4.5, 42.5

Best lines: Oklahoma -5.5 -110, South Carolina +5.5 -110

Best totals: OVER 43.5 -102, UNDER 43 -109

Splits on side: 64% of wagers, but just 45% of handle on Oklahoma

Splits on total: 56% of bets, but only 47% of money on OVER 

·      Splits imply sharp money on Cocks

·      Oklahoma is 2-3-1 ATS, -.6; under all 6 by stunning 11 points per game 

·      Cocks 3-3 but -3.3 and under 4-of-6 -7.5 points per game 

·      ActionNetwork has Sooners -4.4 and 41.5

·      SportsLine has Oklahoma winning 22-19

·      Massey 24-21

·      Several of our famed Bubble Burst angles, most notably fading a team off their first loss if they had at least three wins and the loss was by 14 or more points and a few other metrics is 105-41-4.

o   Holds up as home underdogs as well as home dog of three or more

·      No shock when two teams combined for -17 or lower under the total for season, goes over 407-351-12

o   Slightly higher rate game 10 or earlier 

PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA as that bubble burst angle wins in all sports

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Oklahoma/South Carolina UNDER 43.5

The Key: Oklahoma is 6-0 UNDER in all games this year with 45 or fewer combined points in all 6 games.  They just lost 23-6 to Texas in John Mateer's return from injury.  He is playing with a broken hand, and he is without one of his best receivers in Keontez Lewis who has 19 receptions for 226 yards and 2 TD this year.  The Sooners may have the best defense in the national.  They are 2nd yielding 9.8 PPG, 1st yielding 211.2 YPG and 2nd yielding 3.7 YPP.  They go up against a South Carolina offense that just doesn't have much help for QB La'Norris Sellers.  Their offensive line is terrible, and they lack weapons for him.  They are coming off a 20-10 loss at LSU, and they were held to 7 points by Vanderbilt at home.  They are 108th in scoring at 22.3 PPG and 123rd in total offense at 310 YPG.  The Gamecocks have another solid defense at 32nd yielding only 19.0 PPG.  Points will be very hard to come by in this contest.  Take the UNDER.

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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #394 Arkansas Razorbacks over Texas A&M Aggies (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 18 ESPN) Just not sold that Texas A&M is the best team in the SEC and feel they are giving to many points in this true road game. Arkansas has an interim coach that wants the job again in Bobby Petrino. Expect for the Notre Dame game, Arkansas has been competitive this year, and I feel that they will take this one down to the wire. The Aggies have only played one true road game this season and this is the first of 3 straight road games. They will be lucky to go 2-1 in those games and I see this one being closer than what the experts think. Take the home dog on Saturday, as we look for our sixth straight free play win. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card including plays in football, hockey, and horse racing. Sign-up now and let 54 years of handicapping experience work for you.

#399 ASA FREE PLAY ON Ohio State -25 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Will Badgers score in this game? They were shutout 37-0 at home vs Iowa last week and OSU’s defense is a few notches better than the Hawkeyes. OSU is allowing just 8 PPG on the season and teams are averaging 0.85 points per drive, both #1 in the country. Wisconsin’s offense has been brutal to say the least. They are down to their 3rd string QB (transfer from Southern Illinois) and they can’t run the ball (116th nationally in YPG rushing). That makes it very tough to score and they’ve shown that can’t. This team is averaging less than 7 PPG in Big 10 play and over their last 4 games they’ve had 45 offensive possessions and scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s. Just terrible. And now they face the best defense they’ve seen this year. A defense that held Washington to 6 points, Texas to 7 points, and Minnesota to 3 points. Offensively OSU isn’t great this year but they are still very good. They still rank 19th in the country in YPP and 23rd in scoring putting up 37 PPG. They shouldn’t need to do much on offense here as Wisconsin will do next to nothing on their offensive side of the ball. OSU has scored at least in the mid 30’s in 4 of their 6 games and that should easily get it done here vs a Wisconsin defense that started out well, but has faded. The Badgers have allowed 38, 27, 24, and 37 points over their last 4 games and 3 of those offenses rank 50th or worse (total offense) including Iowa who ranks 115th yet put up 37 points last week. The Badgers put a lot of emotional effort into last week’s game vs arch rival Iowa and still got smoked. Nothing left in the tank here and OSU rolls big.

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Temple -11.5

K.C. Keeler clearly has this Temple program headed in the right direction in his first year.  The Owls are 3-3 this season with their 3 losses coming to Oklahoma, Georgia Tech and Navy.  They deserved to beat Navy in a 32-31 loss last week as the refs did them dirty.  Look for them to take out their frustrations on one of the worst teams in the country in Charlotte.  First-year head coach Tim Albin does not have the 49ers headed in the right direction.  They are 1-5 this season with their lone win against FCS Monmouth by 7, and all five losses coming by 11 points or more.  That includes a 23-point home loss to App State, a 17-point home loss to UNC and an 11-point home loss to Rice.  They also lost by 17 at Army and by 28 at USF, so they have played a much weaker schedule than Temple.  The 49ers are without starting QB Conner Harrell due to injury.  Give me Temple.

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This is a FREE PLAY on Florida.

The Gators are 2-4, while the Bulldogs are 4-2. 

Florida is 2-1 SU/ATS at home, while Mississippi State is 1-1 SU/ATS on the road.

The Gator have faced some stiff competition and are off the 34-17 loss at Texas A&M as 7-point dogs. 

So far Florida has failed to live up to expectations, but it still has a shot at eligibility, especially with a win here on Saturday afternoon. 

The Gators won't likely be a favorite at any other point in the season, but they do have a bye week coming up to get ready for the final five games, including a neutral site affair against Georgia when they come out of their bye, following by games at Kentucky and Ole Miss, and then finishing the season with back-to-back home games against Tennessee and FSU.

The Bulldogs are 4-2, winning their first four games, but dropping their last two, falling 41-34 in overtime at home to Tennessee, before a 31-9 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago.

With a huge nationally televised game at home against Texas next week, the visitors could also easily be caught "looking ahead" here.

This is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Gators. 

Besides the win over ASU, the Bulldogs' other wins look pretty empty.

Billy Napier's job is on the line essentially, and I look for his team to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish.

Consider FLORIDA.

Good luck, NP

Saturday's CFB FREE PICK

PLAY ON: Penn State +3 

Penn State, enters this game on a 3 game losing streak, and just recently just fired their head coach James Franklin and just lost their starting QB  Drew Allar to a serious injury that ended his season. Looking at that its not unreasonable to be asking bettors to lay a FG with Iowa. However, with that said, the core of a previously ranked Nittany Lions remains intact and is overall a very talented group. With that Im betting Penn state will rally under the flag of their new head coach, and make like very difficult for the Hawkeyes here this Saturday. 

CFB team like Penn State - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more against opponent off a double digit road win are 27-5 ATS since 2021 for a 85% conversion rate.

Play on Penn State to cover