1* Free Play Packers.
The Rams surprised everyone with their outright SU win over the Cardinals last week, but if this team has shown anything this season, it's been it's unbelievable inconsistency from week to week. After beating division rival Seattle in its opener, St. Louis would then promptly lose to a mediocre Redskins team in Week 2 and now has to face Aaron Rodgers and the 4-0 SU/ATS Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. There's no question that this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Rams after another tough divisional win and note that from a trend based standpoint, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as St. Louis is just 1-5 SU its last six vs. the Pack and only 4-9 SU its last 13 on the road (also just 2-5 ATS its last seven overall), while Green Bay is 5-0 SU its last five at home and 7-2 SU its last nine vs. the Rams at Lambeau. We're going to lay the points as we expect the visitors to get caught "looking ahead" to their bye the following week, followed by back-to-back "cream puffs" at home vs. the Browns and 49'ers respectively; consider a second look at GREEN BAY in this one.
For some reason the betting public continues to like the Eagles, despite them showing nothing that would indicate them being worthy of a wager. Both teams come into this matchup at 1-3. The Saints knocked off the Cowboys in overtime on Sunday night, while the Eagles fell by 3 to the Redskins. There is a huge difference in the NFL between being 2-3 and 1-4. The team that ends up falling to 1-4 after this contest will be looking to next year, with their season essentially over. The team that wins and ends up at 2-3 is still very much alive. All indications point to the Saints at least covering the number here.
Drew Brees is back from injury, obvious though very crucial to a play on the Saints here. This offense is built around Brees. He makes everyone around him better, especially his receivers. Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead should have big games against this Philadelphia secondary. Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller lead the rushing attack. Spiller has also given New Orleans another dimension to their offense, a back that can catch and run. I expect Spiller’s role in the Saints passing game to increase as the season progresses.
Chip Kelly isn’t having near the amount of success with his offense as he would have hoped for coming into the season. One of the biggest reasons is DeMarco Murray isn’t being utilized as much as he should. Murray was the NFL’s leading rusher last season and broke Emmitt Smith’s record for the most rushing yards in Cowboy’s franchise history. He needs more touches for this team to be successful, plain and simple. Because of the questionable play calling, Philly is averaging just 70 yards per game on the ground. Murray carried the ball just 8 times for 36 yards in their loss to the Redskins. Not a recipe for success. Take the points with the team that’s in the better current form. Take the Saints.
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