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1% GOLD RUSH on Browns -1½

1* Free Pick on Jets +2½

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Jaguars/Texans UNDER 37.5

The Houston Texans are dead nuts UNDER team.  The Texans are 5-2-1 UNDER in their eight games this season.  They have arguably the best defense in the NFL, but one of the worst offenses largely due to having one of the worst offensive lines.

Both the Jaguars and Texans profile as UNDER teams this week due to injuries to both teams on offense.  The Texans just lost CJ Stroud to a concussion last week and will be going with Davis Mills, who is a big downgrade.  Mills will be playing behind an offensive line that lost two starters to injury last week in RT Tytus Howard and RG Ed Ingram.

The Jaguars will be without their two best receivers in Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter.  They will also be without TE Hunter Long, and they were already without starting TE Brenton Strange, so they won't get anything out of the TE position.  LG Ezra Cleveland has been ruled out along the offensive line.

Houston ranks 1st in scoring defense at 15.1 points per game, 1st in total defense at 267.4 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play allowed.  Jacksonville is improved and healthy on defense right now ranking 17th in scoring at 23.0 points per game.  

The Jaguars should be able to shut down Mills, who was terrible in Stroud's place once he exited last week.  Both teams struggle to finish drives in the red zone, too.  The Texans rank dead (32nd) last in red zone TD percentage (36.4%) while the Jaguars rank 23rd (51.9%).

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be a rematch from a 17-10 win by the Jaguars on September 21st at home in their first meeting this season.  These teams combined for just 27 points and 562 total yards in that contest.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in this AFC South rivalry.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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Sunday Card has an early TOP TIER 1 NFL Side, along with the NFC Total of the Month and NFC West Game of the Year. There is Sunday night Football as well as NBA and College Hoops. Comp play below.

The NFL Comp play is on Houston at 1 eastern. 4 point line swing with Stroud out but the Texans should still do well here at home. Rob notes that conference teams that scored less than 21 points and attempted 5 or more field goals cover 80% of the time if the total is 45 or less and they are off a home loss and are taking on a team like the Jags that are off a win. Mills has plenty of weapons and the Texans have same season revenge here. The Jags are off the wild over time win over Vegas last out but we will back Houston here to get the win. GL Rob V-

Kyle Shanahan’s outside zone + play-action passing attacks blitz-heavy, aggressive defenses—exactly what Sean McVay and his coordinators (Phillips, Staley, Morris, now McVay himself) love to run.The 49ers average 5.8 YPC on outside zone runs vs. LAR since 2019 (NFL high in rivalry).Rams rank bottom-5 in blitz rate vs. play-action.

 :Rams overcommit =big plays = backdoor covers.

Market Bias Toward Star Power Rams often favored due to Stafford, Kupp, Donald, McVay hype. The Public loves betting the “sexier” team.Oddsmakers shade lines 1–2 points too high on LA.3. Physicality & Depth 49ers built to win in the trenches—especially on the road.Since 2021, SF is +18 in turnover margin vs. LAR.Rams often one-dimensional when trailing.  Situational ATS Record Win Rate .ROI (Flat Bet) Shanahan as underdog vs. LAR 8–0 100%+72.7   +3 or more vs. LAR 7–0 100% +63.6 units 

Sample: 10/13/19 (+3), 11/29/20 (+5.5), 1/30/22 (+3.5), etc.

Betting Takeaways If this seems like a Blind Bet on  the Underdog in 49ers-Rams  it sort of is. The underdog is 13–1 ATS since 2019.

Back Shanahan +3 or more...7–0 ATS.Fade the Rams as favorites of –6 or less ... 0–6 ATS when favored by 6 or fewer.  

 HC Shanahan now 8–0 ATS as a dog vs. LAR. Rams 1–5 ATS as favorites this season. History says take the points. I know some key players are out for the 49ers, Injuries do flip this from "hammer the dog" to "proceed with caution." Shanahan adapts (8–0 magic), but Purdy + Bosa out = 55/45 Rams cover (So this is a sprinkle the cash play and not a reg bankroll wager of 1% or 2%).

SF Injuries :

In a parity-driven NFL, a 13–1 ATS trend is not noise....it’s signal. Until the market adjusts (and it hasn’t in 6 years), the 49ers-Rams underdog remains one of the sharpest bets on the board even with the 49ers injury list raising eyebrows..

Bet the dog. Trust the scheme.