Free NFL Picks

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Tennessee Titans +6

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Tennessee Titans today.  They had a much-needed bye week and now they are fresh and ready to attack the rest of the season.  They are also a lot healthier coming out of the bye potentially getting back 3 key cogs in WR Calvin Ridley, DE Jeffery Simmons and LB Arden Key who have all been out for multiple weeks.  The Houston Texans are a tired team after coming back from 19 down in the 4th quarter to beat the Jaguars last week.  They are also an injured team without QB CJ Stroud and CB Jalen Pitre.  They should not be 6-point road favorites without Stroud, especially when you compare this line to their 1st matchup with the Titans.  The Texans were 7.5-point home favorites over the Titans on September 28th without Stroud in tow.  Now they are 6-point road favorites in the rematch without him.  Take Tennessee.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Titans +6 -110

1% GOLD RUSH on Chargers/Jaguars: over 43½

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Carolina Panthers +4

The Carolina Panthers suffered a big letdown last week in a home loss to the Saints.  It was predictable after upsetting the Packers as nearly 2-touchdown underdogs on the road the previous week.  The Panthers as a whole sounded like they took the Saints lightly afterward, and I expect them to refocus for this big divisional showdown against the Falcons.  It's a Falcons team they already beat 30-0, and a reeling Falcons team coming back from London after a OT loss to the Colts.  This came after a 1-point loss to the Patriots on the road the previous week.  It's safe to say the Falcons are a tired, defeated team right now.  They have lost four straight while also falling to the Dolphins 34-10 at home and the 49ers 20-10 on the road.  While the Panthers are almost fully healthy, the Falcons have a huge list of injuries.  They will be down three starting offensive linemen and possibly a 4th.  WR Drake London is questionable.  On defense, they are without LB Leonard Floyd, CB Mike Hughes, CB Dee Alford, LB Josh Woods and have four other defenders on IR.  DE Zach Harrison and DE Brandon Dorlus are questionable as well.  Give me the Panthers.

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#463 ASA FREE PLAY ON Carolina Panthers +3.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This game falls into a betting strategy we have used regularly this NFL season with great results and has us on the Panthers plus the points. Atlanta isn’t in the best scheduling situation here having played overseas last week, a loss to the Indianapolis Colts 25-31. The Falcons have been a disappointment this season with 4 straight losses and a 3-6 SU record. Carolina on the other hand has exceeded expectations to this point at 5-5 SU, which includes a 30-0 win at home against this same Falcons team in mid-September. The one key advantage the Panthers utilize is their rushing attack which is 8th in the league at 133.1 yards per game. They run it for 4.6 YPC (13th) which allows them to control the pace of the game. The Falcons should take advantage of an Atlanta defense that allows the 29th most rushing yards per game at 146.4 and gives up 4.9 YPC (27th). On the other side of the football, the Falcons have middling offensive statistics including a 5.5 YPP average (19th). The Panthers defense doesn’t have great overall numbers but they’re near league average in most key categories: 16th YPG allowed 17th in rushing defense and 15th against the pass. Atlanta will have a tough time putting away this pesky Panthers team that is coming off an embarrassing loss last week to the Saints.

Sunday's NFL Free Pick

PLAY ON: Bengals +5.5

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers were stunned at home against the lowly Saints last Sunday but that's a loss many should have seen coming as they were in a big letdown spot returning home off an 'upset' win in Green Bay the previous Sunday. Here, I look for Carolina to bounce back as it looks to sweep the season series against the Falcons. Atlanta has to travel back from Berlin after dropping a tough overtime game against Indianapolis last Sunday. The health of Falcons WR Drake London is obviously a big concern. He's dealing with a back injury on top of an illness and questionable to play on Sunday. Even if he can go, I question where the Falcons can get going from a standing start and win by margin in this divisional clash. Take Carolina.

Big Sunday Card with NFC South Total of the year, an Executive Level Tier 1 Side plus 2 plays from a 38-3 system and on from a 21-0 System including SNF. We also have Early season CBB Systems and NBA. Comp play below.

The NFL Comp play at 1 eastern is on the Under 49 points in the Cincy at Pittsburgh game. This one fits  a nice 9-1 under system that pertains to Divisional home teams in week 16 or earlier in the 2nd meeting of the season if the posted total is between 46 and 56 and the home team is favored by 13 or less vs a team off a bye week. The Bengals have the extra rest to figure out how to fix an inept defense. The Steelers are 4 of 5 under after scoring 10 or less and are hanging on at 5-4 in the AFC North. They are 5-1 under in divisional home games. Expect this game will see some points but stay under the total here today. GL Rob V-

OU:  1-9-0 

Nov 16, 2025  1:00 Sun  Steelers   Bengals  home------5.5  49

Turbo version of fading an underdog off consecutive games in which they scored more points than expected, but with other factors mixed in, is 78-25-2. More straightforward is big away favorites off a home loss at 63-25-6.

Duffy is: 

15-3 Wise Guy plays.
14-6 NFL sides, 19-9 NFL totals.
Best card of year.
Four Wise Guys starting out with Sunday Morning Game of the Year.
AFC West GOY and SNF Wise Guy.
8-0 in all.

1* Free Pick on Rams -2½

Ravens @ Browns
Sunday, November 16, 2025 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Records & Trends

Ravens (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS): 2-2 ATS on road, 1-0 ATS in division, 3-1 ATS L4 games
Browns (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS): 3-0 ATS at home, 1-2 ATS in division, 1-3 ATS L4 games

Head to Head History
Baltimore crushed Cleveland 41-17 in Week 2. Ravens have won the last 3 meetings; Browns have dropped their last 2 (both road losses). Cleveland’s lone bright spot lately: a 31-6 home rout of Miami. No visitor has scored more than 17 points at Huntington Bank Field this season (Week 3 vs. CIN).
Offensive Matchup
Baltimore boasts a top 10 rushing attack led by Derrick Henry, but Cleveland’s pass defense is stingy and Myles Garrett is a one man wrecking crew. Expect constant heat—Henry included. The Ravens explosive offense faces a Browns D that ranks 25th in points allowed yet has been lights out at home.
Underdog Angle
Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as a home division dog. In the Week 2 blowout, the Browns actually outgained Baltimore, posted more first downs, and ran 19 more plays—despite starting Joe Flacco.
Intangibles
Myles Garrett publicly called out the team after last week’s loss. Facing a division rival at home, the Browns will bring maximum effort. Rookie QB Dillon Gabriel keeps the offense simple against a Ravens defense that bleeds points.
Expectation
Low scoring, physical slugfest. Cleveland’s home dominance + motivation + historical cover rate as a divisional dog keeps this within a touchdown.
Pick: Browns +7.5 (BetOnline has +9 as of posting 11/15 4:45 EST)

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1* NFL - Lions/Eagles FREE PICK on OVER 46.5 

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are a bunch of winners.  It may not always be pretty, but like the Kansas City Chiefs for so many years, the Eagles are just finding ways to get the job done.  They have wins over the Chiefs, Rams, Packers and Bucs this season en route to a 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS start.  They have taken out most of the top contenders in the NFC, and now they are going to take out another in the Detroit Lions Sunday night.

The Eagles should still be very fresh after having a bye prior to their 10-7 win at Green Bay on Monday Night Football.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and as healthy as they have been all season.  Their entire offensive line and every important playmakers is available for Jalen Hurts, and the defense is fully healthy as well and got even better with the addition of Jalen Phillips at the trade deadline.

The Lions are getting too much respect for a blowout win over the Commanders last week.  That's a Commanders team that is decimated with injuries right now and one that continues to get blown out every week because of it.  Keep in mind the Lions lost at home to the Vikings the week prior as 9.5-point favorites.  

The Eagles have a big advantage over the Lions in the health department in this one.  Detroit has a laundry list of injuries.  The Lions will be without TE Sam LaPorta, DE Josh Paschal, CB Terrion Arnold, S Kerby Joseph and DE Marcus Davenport.  Another six players are questionable, including projected starters in LT Taylor Decker, RT Penei Sewell, TE Brock Wright and CB Amik Robertson.  The Lions already have 13 players on IR.

Weather will be a factor here with temps in the 40's and 15-20 MPH sustained winds in Philadelphia.  Jared Goff never plays as well outdoors in the elements.  The Eagles are built for these conditions, running the football with Barkley and Hurts and moving the chains on the ground.  The Lions were held to 98 rushing yards by the Chiefs and 65 by the Vikings in recent losses, and I think the Eagles will shut them down on the ground as well.

The Eagles are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games under Nick Siriani when playing two games following a bye week winning by 17.6 points per game in this spot.  They are also 7-1 SU off a bye, so the bye tends to have a very positive effect for them for two straight weeks.  Goff has scored 24 points or fewer in seven of nine outdoor games with Detroit when there are 10-plus MPH winds, averaging just 19.4 points per game in these nine windy outdoor games.  Bet the Eagles Sunday night.

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