Free WNBA Picks

1* Bet on Lynx -3

1* Free Play on over 165½

Six and a half looks fat until you remember who Chicago is without Diggins. Then it starts looking like a gift.

Golden State is 25-10 because they actually guard people. Best defensive rating in the league at 102.8. Fewest points allowed at 76.7 a night. Slowest pace at 74.7. They do not run. They do not give you easy paint looks. They make you earn every possession in the half court and then they take the ball back. Net rating sits at +8.2, second only to Minnesota. They do not need to score 95. They just need the other team to have a long night.

Chicago is 14-22. They put up 87.7 and give up 89.8. Offensive rating around 106, defensive rating closer to 109. Diggins has been out since early July. Carrington is out too. Natasha Cloud just dropped 35 on New York, which is fun until you remember New York is not Golden State. Nine days ago the Sky went to Chase Center and lost 91-71. Same roster, same missing pieces, same result. The Valkyries bench ran them off the floor.

Pace is the part people skip. Chicago wants to play fast. Golden State does not allow fast. The best defensive teams this year have covered bigger numbers against clubs sitting in the bottom third of net rating, especially when the other side is missing its primary creator. That is this game. Chicago without Diggins is a team looking for someone to make the extra pass. Golden State is a team that does not give you the extra pass.

They just lost to Minnesota. Fine. They are still 7-3 in their last 10. Chicago is 5-5 and just beat a Liberty team that was not whole. Different animal. Road 6.5 is never a lock. It is also not a mystery. Keep the Sky in the 70s the way they have kept almost everybody else in the 70s.

Valkyries -6.5. They do not have to be pretty. They just have to be themselves.

Free Play on Toronto Tempo +3 -110