Free WNBA Picks

1* Free Play on Mystics +4½ -105

1* Free Pick on Sun +4½

Connecticut is 0-4 with a brutal -21.9 net rating, and the market knows it.

That's exactly why +4.5 is the right number against an expansion team that's already short-handed.

The opposition case is obvious.

The Sun shoot 39% from the field, 29% from three, and turn it over on 18% of possessions.

Ugly numbers.

But this line is built on that ugly start, not on what the rosters actually look like Monday night.

Portland is the worst defensive team in the league at 119 defensive rating, and they're missing pieces.

Karlie Samuelson is out.

Kamiah Smalls is day-to-day with an ankle.

Most importantly, Carla Leite, the Fire's leading scorer at 19.5 PPG, is questionable with her own ankle issue.

For an expansion offense with no secondary scoring depth, losing Leite is a roster-killer.

Connecticut, meanwhile, is getting Brittney Griner back.

She averaged 14.5 points and 6 rebounds in her two appearances this season, and she gives the Sun a real interior anchor that's been missing.

The Sun also dropped 94 on the defending champion Aces in their last game.

The offense is trending the right way.

This line opened around Portland -3 and got pushed to -4.5 on the Sun's record and Griner's foot.

That's a market overreaction.

Griner is trending toward playing, Leite is trending toward sitting, and Portland's defense can't stop anyone regardless.

Give me the points with the team that just got its center back, against an expansion roster with three guards banged up.

I like Sun

Free Total Annihilator On Sun vs Portland Fire over 172½ -110

Free Play on Sun +4½ -115

1* Free Play on Sun +4

My selection is on the 'under' between Connecticut and Portland at 10 pm et on Monday.

The 'over' has cashed in all three of Portland's games so far this season but the pace hasn't necessarily been there for such high-scoring results. Note that the Fire have actually held each of their first three opponents to fewer than 70 field goal attempts. The problem is they've run into the Sky and Liberty (twice), two of the league's best teams. I don't expect Connecticut to cause Portland as much grief in this contest as the Fire enter as a favorite for the first time in team history. The Sun have also faced a fairly difficult schedule out of the gates, taking on the Liberty, Storm and Aces (twice). Defensively, they've struggled, but like the Fire, have also limited their opponents' pace, allowing 67 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their four games. While I don't think this will be a defensive slugfest by any means, I do think we'll see both teams struggle with offensive efficiency as this one stays 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (8*).

1* Bet on Sun +4½

1* on Sun +4½

FREE PLAY on Sun/Portland Fire under 174

1* FREE INFO PLAY Sun +4½ -115