Free NFLX Picks & Predictions

1* Free Pick on Packers/Steelers over 39½

The Packers roll into Pittsburgh Thursday night for the first full preseason game of the year, and the total is sitting right in that familiar 36.5 to 37.5 window. I’m on the under, and the deeper you dig into the league-wide and team numbers the more it feels like the right side of the math.

League-wide, the 37 threshold has been a reliable separator for years. Closing totals of 37 or higher have gone under at a 56.4 percent clip since 2010, a sample that runs well over 900 games. Since 2014 the under on those 37-plus numbers is even cleaner at 60.7 percent, returning solid units at standard pricing. The reverse holds too. When the number opens at 37 or lower the over hits closer to 59 or 60 percent. This matchup is perched right on the line, but the historical lean still favors the lower side once you account for how little the real starters play these days. Last year only 9.8 percent of preseason pass attempts came from quarterbacks who ended up starting Week 1. That is a sharp drop from the 30-plus percent range we saw a decade ago, and it means more backup-driven football, more conservative play-calling, and fewer explosive finishes.

The Steelers themselves have been a quiet under machine at home in the exhibition season. From 2002 through 2025 Pittsburgh as the home team went under in 67.4 percent of its preseason games, a 14-29-2 record that has produced double-digit units over the long haul. That is not a small-sample fluke. It lines up with the physical, run-heavy identity the organization has carried for years, even when the first-team defense sits most of the night. Green Bay has not been as extreme, but the Packers still play a brand of football that keeps games from turning into track meets, especially on the road in August.

Add the outdoor night setting in western Pennsylvania and the picture gets clearer. Early-season humidity and potential weather keep the ball on the ground more than the public expects. Combined scores in Week 1 preseason games have historically averaged just under 39 points against posted numbers that often sit in the mid-to-high 30s. When you stack the league-wide 56-to-60 percent under rate on 37-plus totals with Pittsburgh’s strong home under history, the edge starts looking real. At -110 a 56 percent hit rate over a 100-game sample nets you positive return after the juice. A 60 percent clip turns it into a steady grind that keeps bankrolls healthy over time.

There is the Rodgers-McCarthy reunion angle, and yes, the veteran may take 30 or 40 snaps against his old club. Even if he does, the majority of the game still belongs to the second and third units still working through timing and communication. Those groups rarely light up the scoreboard in Week 1. I like this under. It matches the long-term numbers, the team-specific home trend, and the reality of limited starter volume. Keep the stake sensible, enjoy the nostalgia, and let the points stay low.

For my best free pick on the board here for Thursday I am looking at preseason NFL action and the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Detroit Lions. Lions are a Super Bowl contender and with those big expectations comes bettors that should flock to this kind of plus points but the Lions over recent history really do not play much of their talent in these games where as on the other side Cincinnati really has some positional battles going on. We will see some from Joe Burrow here on Thursday but really it’s the competition between Sean Clifford,Joe Flacco and Josh Johnson the latter two with a ton of NFL experience. Look for the Bengals to set the tone from this game on that they will be a factor in the AFC.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points rotation #106

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1* on Steelers +2½

7 pm, the (103) Green Bay Packers may start Jordan Love, prompting this spread. One series won't change how bad the Packers will be on defense without Parsons and with key players resting. The host (104) Pittsburgh Steelers have a new coach and some solid quarterbacks looking to prove they belong, like Howard from Ohio State's championship game and Allar from Penn State, in a vanilla offense with a big arm never allowed to unload. Steelers will be able to run all over this Packers defense and win it by a field goal. Grab the points and the (104) Pittsburgh Steelers for my free winner. ** Have two premium NFL wagers locked and loaded** 

1* Free Pick on Steelers +2½ -110

Free Pick on Bengals -6½ -110

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Steelers +2½ -110

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1* FREE INFO PLAY Steelers +2 -110

1* Free Play on Lions/Bengals over 36½ -110

1* Free Sharp Play on Colts -2½ -110

1 Dimer on Cardinals +1 -110

1* Free Pick on Chargers/Texans: over 36½

Preseason opener, both benches wide open.

Herbert, Stroud, and most starters on both sides are watching in sweats.

The number of 36.5 assumes vanilla, conservative football.

That's not the read here.

Start with Houston.

Davis Mills is the Texans QB1 in this spot and he went 3-0 as a starter in 2025, completing 59.5% for 719 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT.

That's not a guy who bleeds three-and-outs.

Mills gets extended run in a game where coaches want to see him, not protect him.

On the other side, Mike McDaniel is running his first preseason game as Chargers OC.

His scheme is motion-heavy and built for explosive plays, and he's specifically said he wants to look at all three backs plus his tight end room of Oronde Gadsden (49-664-3 in 2025) and David Njoku against backup linebackers.

That's a coach who wants reps and points, not a coach in bubble wrap.

The opposition case is real.

Houston's defense posted -0.1521 EPA/play last year and -0.2613 over their last four.

But that defense isn't on the field tonight either.

Those numbers were built by Al-Shaair, Anderson, Hunter.

Preseason Week 1 is backup-vs-backup, and backup defenses give up drives.

The 36.5 is pricing the starters' defense against the backups' offense.

Both teams cleared 36.5 in their Week 17 meeting last year (20-16, 36 points) with mostly starters playing conservative football.

Backups in August won't be more careful.

I like the Over

Arizona Cardinals +120

We were on the Cardinals last week and stick with them here. They lost late, but I like the continuity angle — this team has a game already under its belt while playing this one as the road dog. Teams coming off a Hall of Fame Game loss also tend to tighten up defensively the following week, which plays into a lower-scoring script.

The matchup itself is intriguing on its own: Fernando Mendoza and Carson Beck face off again. But beyond that, Mendoza is surrounded by a veteran-heavy roster, and veteran QBs historically don't bring much urgency to preseason snaps unless there's an active competition for the job — which isn't the case here.

I lean Under on the total, but for the side I'm not messing with the points. Give me the road dog.

Pick: Cardinals +120

Risk 1 Unit to win 1.2 Units

Let's cash some tickets!

1% GOLD RUSH on Chargers +1

Las Vegas has the better disclosed rotation information. The systems favor Arizona.

System: Road underdogs of 2.5 points or fewer are 84-43 ATS (66.1%) since 2015. Arizona qualifies at +1.5.

There is also the broader small-underdog result:

System: Preseason underdogs in the +1 to +3 range are 190-128 ATS (59.7%) since 2015. But Las Vegas has attractive personnel information. Kubiak says starters will participate and Mendoza will receive plenty of repetitions.

That leaves a direct conflict between two excellent historical underdog systems and positive Raiders rotation/money information, thus not a premium bet, but such a strong system to not have as a free play with possible upgrade to premium.

PSP Data Driven 1* Titans.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The Titans are 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games. The 49ers are 2-3 ATS in the last 5 head to head meetings versus the Titans.

My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Tennessee at 9 pm et on Thursday.

The injury bug has hit the 49ers again this training camp and it has many bettors shying away from them as they host the Titans in their preseason opener on Thursday. I think this line has gone too far in Tennessee's direction. I understand the support for the Titans here in August as they do have a strong preseason quarterback rotation with experienced backups in Mitchell Trubisky, Will Levis and even Hendon Hooker who has made a splash in the preseason in prior years. With that being said, San Francisco has plenty of upside at the position behind Brock Purdy as well with Mac Jones firmly planted as the backup but Kurtis Rourke and Adrian Martinez capable of making some preseason noise. I just don't see enough of a depth advantage for a rebuilding Tennessee team to warrant it laying a field goal on the road in its first preseason contest. Both teams went 2-1 last August but dropped their respective preseason openers. It's worth noting the 49ers faced the tougher opening matchup against a deep Broncos team that has taken the preseason seriously under head coach Sean Payton. Take San Francisco (8*).

Be sure to pick up my 10* NFLX Total of the Year for 2026 which kicks off on Thursday! I went a profitable 9-5-1 in NFL preseason action last year and expect to deliver again this August; I'd love to have you on board!

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The Thursday NFLX Comp play is on the Over in the Tennessee at San Francisco game at 9 eastern. The Titans are playing all their starters i the game hence their 5 point road favored stats here in SF. The Niners are looking to see what they have at the back end of the roster especially on offense. Robert Saleh more of a defensive minded coach has decided to be more pro offense after seeing what happened in NY with The Jets who were anemic in scoring during his time there. The Titans will look to move the ball and emphasize scoring with their added weapons and a progressing Qb in Cam Ward and camp standout RC Nick Singleton. The Titans will follow with Levis and Trubisky. SF will get their points as well here at home as they Mac Jones likely at QB for a good portion. As for a NFLX Exclusive Preseason totals system. Rob notes that week 1 preseason road favorites of =4 or more are 6 of 7 over and the games average over 45 points. Look for this one to sail over the total. GL Rob V-