Sports Handicapper Tom Macrina's Picks & Predictions

Both teams enter this matchup undefeated in regulation and nearly identical against the spread (each with just one ATS loss). On paper, this looks like a coin flip game — but the details tilt the edge to Santa Clara at the current number.

Key Context

This is St Louis’ first true road/neutral game of the season. Santa Clara has already played (and won) away from home.
Neutral court removes any real home court advantage and should limit the typical free throw and three point regression edges that St Louis often enjoys at home.

Offense vs Defense Breakdown

Offensively, the teams are remarkably similar in efficiency.
Defensively, Santa Clara has the clear advantage. They rank significantly higher in defensive efficiency metrics and have shown the ability to disrupt opponents in a way St Louis has not consistently faced yet.

Achilles Heels for Santa Clara (and why they’re mitigated here)

Santa Clara has been poor from three and at the free throw line this season.
On a neutral floor against a St Louis' team that doesn’t force a ton of threes and commits fewer fouls than most, those weaknesses are far less likely to be exposed.

Head to Head History

The teams have met twice in recent seasons — Santa Clara won and covered both games.

Recommendation
Take Santa Clara +1.5 — the value is excellent
Also a confident sprinkle on the Santa Clara moneyline (+105 to +115 range) given the matchup edges and historical success.
Santa Clara +1.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Santa Clara ML (small)

Joe Burrow is officially back but expecting him to immediately return to MVP caliber form feels optimistic. On top of that, Burrow will be without Tee Higgins, forcing heavier reliance on Ja’Marr Chase in what will almost certainly be a bracket heavy game plan from Baltimore’s defense.
The Bengals defense remains one of the league’s worst units. They currently rank bottom-5 in EPA/play, success rate allowed, explosive plays allowed, and red zone TD rate. Baltimore’s offense, led by Lamar Jackson, has been an absolute wrecking ball against poor defenses this season, putting up 37+ points in four of their last six games against bottom half units. The Ravens have also won five straight games, boasting the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense (14.8 PPG allowed) during that stretch.
Cincinnati has not beaten Baltimore since January 2023, dropping the last four meetings. Three of those four losses have come by 8+ points. M&T Bank Stadium at night in late November is one of the toughest environments in football, and the Ravens are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in primetime games under John Harbaugh when laying a touchdown or less.
Everything lines up for Baltimore to control this game from start to finish: superior coaching, better roster health, massive schematic edges on both offensively and defensively, and a massive motivational spot at home with the division lead on the line.
Play: Ravens -7

The betting market is wildly overreacting to Dallas’ comeback win last week. The Cowboys were down 21 and needed everything to go right just to escape with a victory — that’s not telling us Dallas is suddenly world beaters.
Let’s put this line movement in context:

Thanksgiving favorites since 2004: 26-6 ATS (81.3%)
Chiefs have failed to cover three straight games as favorites — an extreme rarity for this staff. Teams in that exact spot (lost last 3 ATS, all as favorite) are now 38-25-2 ATS (60.3%) and 48-17 SU the next time they’re favored. The market is begging you to fade Kansas City here.

This game is essentially a playoff elimination game for both teams. The Cowboys offense has looked sharp lately, but they’re walking into a short week against a Kansas City defense that just put together its best performance of the season against a better offense than Dallas has.
Records can look close on paper, but the Chiefs remain the clearly superior team — better roster, better coaching, better preparation. Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo on a short week with extra motivation is the last thing a vulnerable Dallas team wants to see.
Fade the public narrative.
Take Kansas City -3