Sports Handicapper Tom Macrina's Picks & Predictions

Guardians are heavy favorites at home, and rightfully so — they were buyers at the deadline and upgraded their roster, while the Mets sold off talent and are clearly retooling for next year. So why the Mets here?

Despite Cleveland drawing the public money, the line hasn't budged — a sign that the sharper, bigger bets are actually landing on New York. Add in the Mets' strong interleague record and a bullpen that's been quietly excellent, and there's a real case for the upset.

The safer play is Mets +1.5 (-160), but if you want to get greedy: take the Mets +130 on the moneyline.

Let's cash some tickets!

Cardinals +165

St. Louis has won two straight, including the series opener, and they're carrying real momentum into this one. Yankees, meanwhile, have been shaky lately — yet they're still drawing the bulk of public money, which is pushing this line into value territory.

We're not chasing the crowd here. We're fading a struggling favorite and backing the team playing with confidence, at a price that pays us to do it.

Play: St. Louis Cardinals +165

Baez is a grinder built for clay, while Bellucci's aggressive game is better suited to hard courts — a surface mismatch that should keep points long and rallies contested. This is also their first meeting, and first-time matchups against an unfamiliar opponent typically come with an adjustment period, as both players probe for weaknesses before settling into a rhythm.

Expect a back-and-forth battle with real momentum swings rather than a straightforward affair. That combination points to a three-set contest.

Play: Bellucci/Baez Over 22.5 Games

Zachary Svajda vs. Denis Shapovalov — Montreal Masters 1000

This is a first meeting between the two, and the setting matters: Montreal is home soil for Shapovalov, a real edge at this level of tournament. He's also playing with momentum, having just reached the final in Los Cabos, part of a broader uptick in his hard-court form.

Case for Shapovalov: Home crowd support in Montreal can be a genuine lift, not just a nice backdrop — Canadian fans have a track record of carrying him through tight moments. Add in his ranking and Masters-level experience, and he's the deserved favorite here.

Case for Svajda: He's fresher. Shapovalov just came off a long semifinal and final in Mexico, then had to travel north — that's a real fatigue and scheduling disadvantage. Svajda's 2026 hard-court results and overall consistency have been strong enough that this matchup is closer than the rankings suggest.

Verdict: I lean Shapovalov to win the match, but the better value is in the total. Svajda is fully capable of stealing a set — or the match — if Shapovalov's serve wobbles early in unfamiliar fatigue territory. I expect this to go three sets or at least include a tiebreak.

Play: Over 22.5 total games, -105