Sports Handicapper Tom Macrina's Picks & Predictions

LSU at Clemson — Saturday's Marquee Matchup

Neither of these teams is one I want to bet on, but this is the headline game of the night, so we're getting involved.

The Lane Kiffin storyline has followed LSU since the job opened, and the drama hasn't let up. As recently as yesterday, we were still sorting out whether LSU would roster players cut from NFL rosters. These are real distractions heading into a season opener of this magnitude.

Opinion on LSU is split — plenty of people are high on them, plenty are low. I land in the middle. They have the talent and the coaching, and they've dominated this head-to-head matchup historically. Clemson has underachieved the last few years and tends to come out slow early in the season. I think this Clemson team should contend in the ACC, but I've been burned before overrating them, and I genuinely don't know how they'll look on Saturday. Dabo Swinney should have his group ready, but there's real uncertainty here. Expect sloppy football from both sides.

This will likely be the highest-handle game of the night, but the tickets and the market don't line up. Despite the public hammering LSU, the line keeps dropping toward Clemson — and we're sitting right at a key number. That's enough for us to jump on the dog.

Most of the public sees this as a potential LSU blowout, but I think Clemson is a livelier underdog than the line suggests. We'll also sprinkle a bit on the moneyline at +305.

Pick: Clemson +10 (-110)

Let's cash some tickets!

Florida Atlantic +26.5 (-110)

This is a market-and-trends play, not a pick-to-win. FAU has covered its last two meetings with Florida, and they're 5-1 against the spread in their last six outings versus SEC competition. As a large underdog, this is exactly the spot where they've performed well.

Florida projects as the better team long-term, and a resurgence feels like it's coming — just not necessarily this year. Big spreads like this have historically been a soft spot for the Gators, and 26.5 points is a lot of real estate to defend for four quarters.

The ask here isn't for FAU to win. It's to keep it within the number. Give me the points.

Play: Florida Atlantic +26.5 (-110)

Let's cash some tickets!

Pittsburgh -16.5 (-108)

This line has "trap" written all over it, but everything here points to Pitt. The Panthers are the popular side with no line movement — usually a sign the number is fair, not inflated.

Pitt's defense is the difference-maker against a Miami (OH) offense breaking in a quarterback making his first collegiate start. On the other side, Pitt returns its starting QB and brings back a backfield that should be one of the more productive in the matchup.

Miami (OH) will compete, but the talent gap is real. With Pitt at home and healthy, this should be a comfortable win — lay the points.

Pick: Pittsburgh -16.5 (-108)

Let's cash some tickets!

UCLA vs. California — Under 53.5 (-108)

Primetime finale, and everyone wants a piece of the last game on the board. When the public loads up heavily on one side, that's our cue to look the other way.

This total has moved down despite action on both the public and sharp side — a sign the number is still finding its footing early in the season. Both teams are breaking in new head coaches for their season opener, which adds volatility neither side has had to answer for yet.

I like UCLA to win this one, but we already missed that number — so instead we're playing the trend that's been money for over a decade: the Under is 12-1-1 in this rivalry since 2010. Cal's defense doesn't inspire much confidence, but new-coach jitters, first-game rust, and a total that keeps sinking are enough to side with history here.

Play: Under 53.5 (-108)

Nevada -105 (shop for the best number)

Nevada opened as an underdog but the line has flipped, with Nevada now favored at home — that kind of movement often reflects sharp money or new information hitting the market.

Western Kentucky is breaking in a new offensive coordinator, which typically means early-season inconsistency as the unit gets up to speed. That works against WKU here.

On paper, Nevada should be able to establish the run and control tempo against a Hilltoppers defense. Combine that with the home-field edge, and Nevada looks like better value than the current number suggests.

Play: Nevada -105 or better. Shop around — the line moves book to book, and getting -105 instead of -110 adds up over time.

Baylor vs. Auburn — Betting Preview

These two met in last year's season opener, with Auburn winning 38-24. But both rosters look completely different now.

Auburn hands the keys to new head coach Alex Golesh, whose reputation for high-octane offense should show up eventually — just maybe not in Week 1. I'll also take a small flier on Byrum Brown for a Heisman longshot.

Baylor, meanwhile, turns to DJ Lagway, who transferred in after two years at Florida. I was high on him coming out of high school, but his tenure with the Gators didn't impress me. The ceiling is still there — it's just a lot to ask him to run a new offense from day one. And I'm not a Dave Aranda believer; he's squarely on the hot seat entering this season.

I like Auburn to cover here, but that side will draw too much public money for my taste. Instead, I'm attacking the total.

Two brand-new offenses, neither team with live-game reps yet — expect some early rust. Add in the neutral site, which historically favors the Under, and a number that hasn't moved yet. I expect it to start drifting lower soon, so I want in now.

Pick: Baylor vs. Auburn — Under 59.5 (-115)