Sports Handicapper Tom Macrina's Picks & Predictions

The betting line for the New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers game on January 11, 2026, has stabilized around Knicks -4.5 (with Portland +4.5/+5.5), showing balanced action that has moved the spread slightly in Portland's favor from an opening near -5.
This even split makes sense given the stark contrast in current form between the two teams.
Portland enters riding a red hot five game winning streak (their season-best), including back to back home victories over the Houston Rockets. They've been dominant at the Moda Center lately, winning their last five home games overall. The Trail Blazers have covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games and have been especially strong in each of their five wins during this streak.
Portland excels as a home underdog in this range, boasting an impressive ATS record when catching points (notably strong in spots of 4.5+ as underdogs this season, 13-4 ATS in games as 4.5+ point dogs).
On the flip side, the Knicks (24-14 overall) have struggled significantly on the road and in recent outings. They've lost 5 of their last 6 games, including a poor showing as favorites in several of those. New York has covered just twice in their last 11 games overall, and they've been vulnerable as road favorites of 6 points or fewer — with a dismal historical trend in similar spots.
The Knicks have also dropped three straight on the road heading into this matchup, adding fatigue and momentum concerns to their West Coast trip.
Portland's surge, fueled by strong performances from players like Toumani Camara (career-high 25 in the latest win), Deni Avdija, and Shaedon Sharpe, gives them the edge in confidence and home court energy. They're playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.
We like the value on the home dog here — Portland's momentum, home strength, and ATS trends as underdogs outweigh New York's recent skid and road woes.
Take Portland Trail Blazers +5.5 (or +4.5/+5 depending on your book — shop for the best number). This feels like a classic spot where the hot team at home keeps it close or pulls off the outright.

The Buffalo Bills head into their AFC Wild Card matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars as a slight underdog (or near pick'em, with lines fluctuating around Jaguars -1.5 to near even money), but there's strong value in backing the home team at Jaguars -115.
Offensively, the Bills remain heavily reliant on a two man show: superstar QB Josh Allen and RB James Cook. Allen is expected to deliver his usual elite level performance—he's a dual threat nightmare who can take over games with his arm and legs. However, we've seen his limitations in clutch moments on the road, like the recent struggle against the Eagles where he couldn't convert a critical game winning 2-point conversion in a tight loss. The Bills road record this season was solid but not dominant at 5-3 (4-4 ATS), and they face historical struggles in Jacksonville. The Jaguars own a perfect 2-0 playoff record against Buffalo in Duval County (including wins in 1996 and 2018), and the Bills have been winless on the road in the postseason under Sean McDermott (0-5).
James Cook, the NFL's 2025 rushing champion with over 1,600 yards, is the Bills other key weapon. But Jacksonville boasts the league's No. 1 run defense, allowing a stingy ~85.6 rushing yards per game—the toughest matchup Cook will face all year. The Bills league leading rushing attack gets bottled up here, forcing Allen into more predictable passing situations against a surging Jaguars defense that's peaking at the right time.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are getting stronger every week. They finished the regular season 13-4, won the AFC South, and went on an impressive late-season tear (winning 8 of their last 10, including blowouts). They've covered in many of their recent victories (with strong ATS trends overall at 12-5), showing this team is not just winning but doing so convincingly. Playing at home in EverBank Stadium, where they went 7-2, gives them a massive edge in this high stakes opener.
Early season hype pegged the Bills as a future darling thanks to a softer schedule, but the reality of the playoffs exposes mismatches like this one: a road team with road woes facing a red hot, defensively stout home squad in a venue where Buffalo has historically struggled.
Take the Jaguars -115 — this feels like a classic spot where Jacksonville's momentum, elite run defense, and home field advantage (plus playoff history) carry them to the win.