Cowboys vs 49ers
8:20 ET | Sunday, October 27
8-Unit bet on the Cowboys priced as 5.5-point underdogs.
This is a sample of what my premium clients get each week for college and pro football. I am 6-1 ATS with top-rated 10-UNIT MAX Bets this season and have won 68% ATS over the past 5 seasons. Another 10-UNIT Max bet goes tonight and off to a 2-0 ATS start this season. I would bet Dallas right away as I do see this line moving lower and possibly as low as 4.5 points ahead of the kickoff.
I was on the 49ers as an 8-Unit bet in their terrible home loss to the defending DSuper Bowl Champion Chiefs. The 49ers are really banged up with numerous key players on the injury list and now have added Brandon Aiyuk to that list. Purdy was without the services of his three best WR for the second half with Aiyuk injured, Deebo Samuel (illness), and Jauan Jennings all out. The offense was out of sync and Purdy threw three interceptions with the last one a terrible miscommunication between him and WR Ronnie Bell.
Purdy is 14-2 when his trio of receivers have been in the game and just 6-6 when one of those three has been missing. The news on Aiyuk is not positive as of Monday morning and based on what is known now, he may be out for several more weeks and even the remainder of the season.
The Cowboys are coming off a horrid 47-9 home loss to the Detroit Lions, who are the nest team in the NFC right now and only second to the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL. The 38-point loss ties with two other games for worst margin of defeat the Cowboys have endured since 1989. They lost 44-6 to the Eagles on December 28, 2008 and lost 45-7 to the Packers on November 7, 2010. The Cowboys are 23-24 SU and 26-19-2 ATS for 58% winning bets following a loss by 20 or more points since 1989.
The following simple to track betting algorithm has gone 20-14 SU, 17-18 ATS, and a highly profitable 25-9-1 Under good for 74% winning bets since 2002. The requirements are:
Bet the Under in game where the home team was in the playoffs last season.
That team is coming off a terrible game where their qb rating was 67 or lower.
The home team is priced as the favorite.
The home team lost their previous game at home.
The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 9-19 SU (30%) and 19-7-1 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:
Bet on road dogs of 2.5 or more points.
The dog is coming off a loss.
The dog committed three or more turnovers in their previous game.
The dog went under their team total by 3 or more points.
The total is 43 or more points.
So, I do like the Cowboys in this spot and a lean of no more than 3-units on the Under. Cowboys are coming off the BYE week and having that time to fix their problems with execution and rid themselves of that terrible loss to the Lions. Good teams focus on the defensive side of the game following a horrid loss, especially one where they allowed 40 or more points.