1* Free Pick on St. John's +2½
St. John's is catching points at home in a massive Big East spot tonight. Rick Pitino has this program peaking at the right time as we hit the heart of February.
The Red Storm are playing elite defense and forcing turnovers on over 20% of defensive possessions. UConn is a powerhouse but they have shown cracks in their ball security when playing in hostile road environments.
The Huskies rely on high-level execution and half-court rhythm to win games. St. John's uses relentless full-court pressure to disrupt those sets and force teams into a track meet.
This game is under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden. The environment will be electric for a St. John's team that has historically played its best basketball as a home underdog.
St. John's is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 home games. They have shown a consistent ability to protect their floor and play up to the level of top-tier competition.
The Red Storm have the athleticism to match UConn in transition. They have been elite at defending the three-pointer at home and rank in the top tier of the conference in perimeter field goal percentage defense.
St. John's has the bench depth to keep the intensity high for 40 minutes. They won't let UConn slow this game down to a crawl where the Huskies' size can take over.
The Red Storm are also crashing the glass with purpose lately. They rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and will fight for every second-chance opportunity.
UConn's defensive rating drops significantly when they play outside of their home arena. They allow more points in the paint on the road than they do in their own building.
St. John's is shooting nearly 40% from behind the arc over their last four contests. If those shots fall early, they will dictate the flow and force UConn to play from behind.
The public is heavy on the Huskies but the line is staying firm at 2.5. This indicates the sharp money is comfortable backing the home dog in a classic conference rivalry.
I like the St. John's +2.5.
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