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October 30, 2020

Brandon Lee

Oct 30 '20, 9:00 PM in 22h
NCAA-F | East Carolina vs Tulsa
Play on: Tulsa -17½ -107 at betonline

PICK - Tulsa Golden Hurricane -17.5 
RATING: 30* 
ROT#: 108

I've been watching this Tulsa team closely. I played against them and lost badly in their opener against Oklahoma State. They ended up losing 17-6 (+23.5).Could have easily won outright.

In their next game @ UCF they won 34-26 as a 20.5-point dog. I was mad I didn't take them against the Knights, but fired with a 50* Top Play in last week's 42-13 win @ USF as a mere 12.5-point favorite. 

Tulsa isn't just 3-0, they have covered the spread in those 3 games by an average of 19.8 ppg. Covered all 3 by at least 14.5-points. While I think the books are getting closer, I still think the number here is too short. 

I think it's worth noting that ECU was a 28-point home dog to UCF. Tulsa proved they were better, ast least equal to UCF when they played on the field. Factor in ECU is on the road instead of at home and I feel this should be at least past 3 TD's. 

I believe even though the results speak volumes to how good this Tulsa team is, people can't get over their defense being any good with only 4 starters backs. They lost 6 of their top 10 tacklers and what many considered their best DL, LB & DB. 

I think it's a combination of some guys taking big steps forward (Zaven Collins, LB has been outstanding and he's not even their No. 1 tackler). I also give a lot of props to second-year defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie. 

He was the LB coach for 4 years prior to get promoted to DC in 2019. He played a huge role in 2018 (year before he got the job) in installing the Golden Hurricane's 3-3-5 defense that we see today. 

This defense is similar to what ISU has used slowing down all those pass-happy teams in the Big 12. I got a feeling, much like we saw with the spread offense, this defensive scheme is going to eventually be the defense everyone runs. 

ECU has a good QB in Holton Ahlers, but I see him struggling. Tulsa did give up 330 passing yards to UCF, but that was against a special QB in Dillon Gabriel. What people overlook is that was by far his worst game. Gabriel has thrown for 400+ in every other game. He also only completed 55% vs Tulsa (65%+ in the other 4). 

On the flip side of this, Tulsa's offense got some good mojo going after piling it on a bad USF defense last week. They should continue to feast against an awful ECU defense. Pirates are giving up 4.9 yards/carry, 8.3 yards/attempt and 6.3 yards/play. Give me Tulsa -17.5! 

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Released on Oct 27 at 01:50 pm View Archive

October 31, 2020

Doc's Sports

Oct 31 '20, 12:00 PM in 1d
NCAA-F | Wake Forest vs Syracuse
Play on: Syracuse +11½ -113 at Draft Kings

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #112 Syracuse Orange +11 over Wake Forest Demon Deacons (12p.m., Saturday, October 31 ACCN) Just do not believe Wake Forest should be favored by this many points by anyone in the conference, especially on the road. Wake Forest has won three straight games, the last two as an underdog but I still am not sold on their defense and feel Syracuse will be able to move the football and score some points in this game. Wake Forest is 0-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 road games. Syracuse is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against Wake Forest. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card highlighted by a top play winner on Saturday and Sunday. Sign-up now and let 49 years of handicapping experience work for you.

Released on Oct 27 at 11:14 am View Archive

Matt Fargo

Oct 31 '20, 2:00 PM in 1d
NCAA-F | Central Florida vs Houston
Play on: Houston +3 -110 at Buckeye

After a pair of losses, UCF came back with a win over Tulane but has a stiff test this weekend. The Knights are trying to distance themselves from their early-season stumbles, issues unfamiliar for a program that had grown accustomed to success. The offense has been unreal but the defense has been letting them down as they are ranked No. 88 in total defense. The Knights have failed to cover their last four games yet they come in as road favorites here. Houston is coming off a win over Navy to move to 2-1 on the season with the lone loss coming against 6-0 BYU. Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen said that he hopes to have running back Mulbah Car back after missing the last two games with an ankle injury and that would be a big boost against a UCF rushing defense that is allowing 195.6 ypg. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a home win against a conference rival going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 80-40 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1992. Play (178) Houston Cougars

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Released on Oct 29 at 11:12 am View Archive

Red Dog Sports

Oct 31 '20, 2:00 PM in 1d
NCAA-F | Central Florida vs Houston
Play on: UNDER 83 -110

under 83

Both teams can score but this is one of the highest totals we have seen this year. All it takes is for one side to struggle with turnovers or missed field goals and we have a 41-38 score that falls short.

Take a look at the under as it has been going up after opening at 78.

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Released on Oct 27 at 04:26 pm View Archive

Jimmy Boyd

Oct 31 '20, 10:30 PM in 2d
NCAA-F | Nevada vs UNLV
Play on: Nevada -10 -112 at pinnacle

1* Free Pick on Nevada -10 -112

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

Released on Oct 26 at 07:11 am View Archive

November 01, 2020

Ben Burns

Nov 01 '20, 1:00 PM in 2d
NFL | Titans vs Bengals
Play on: Bengals +6 -105 at sportsbook

This is a generous number of points, given both teams' tendency to play close games. While Cincinnati has five losses, only one of those defeats came by more than five points. The Bengals also had a tie. Overall, they had one bad loss (at Baltimore) and one 8-point win (vs. Jacksonville). Their other five games were all decided by five or fewer points. The Titans, meanwhile, check in off a 3-point loss. Four of their six games have been decided by three points or less and five of their six games were decided by less than a touchdown. Not surprisingly, the Titans are 1-4 ATS as favorites, while the Bengals are 4-2 ATS as underdogs. The last meeting? A 4-point game. Consider grabbing the points. 

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Released on Oct 28 at 04:00 pm View Archive

Jack Jones

Nov 01 '20, 4:05 PM in 2d
NFL | Chargers vs Broncos
Play on: Chargers -3 -116 at pinnacle

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Los Angeles Chargers -3

The Los Angeles Chargers are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now due to their 2-4 record.  They could easily be 4-2 or better.  Their four losses have all come by a single score to the Chiefs (20-23), Panthers (16-21), Bucs (31-38) and Saints (27-30).  Those are four of the better teams in the NFL and they played all four to the wire.

Justin Herbert has thrown for at least 250 yards in each of his first five starters in the NFL and is quickly becoming the favorite to win Rookie of the Year honors.  He is completing 67.4% of his passes for 1,542 yards with 12 touchdowns against only three interceptions.  He leads a Chargers offense that is putting up 405.8 yards per game.

The Denver Broncos are 2-4 this season and every bit as poor as their record would indicate.  Their laundry list of injuries just seems to get worse by the week.  And they have two common opponents with the Chargers in the Chiefs and Bucs.  They lost 10-28 at home to the Bucs and 16-43 at home to the Chiefs.  So much for that Mile High air being a factor as they are 0-3 at home this season and losing by 15.7 points per game.

The Broncos average just 19.3 points per game offensively this season and are a mess on that side of the ball.  Drew Lock just doesn’t take care of the football as the Broncos now have two or more turnovers in five consecutive games coming in.  At some point that becomes a trend, and you just can’t trust them to hold onto the football.  The Chargers are better on both sides of the ball in my opinion and it’s not even close on offense, so they should be more than 3-point favorites here.

The Chargers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Los Angeles is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The road team is 13-5-2 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The Chargers are 9-3-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Denver.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

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Released on Oct 28 at 11:07 am View Archive

Dave Price

Nov 01 '20, 4:25 PM in 2d
NFL | Saints vs Bears
Play on: Bears +4 -102 at pinnacle

Dave’s Sunday Free Play:

1* on Chicago Bears +4

The Key: The Chicago Bears are 5-2 this season.  And while I realize they aren’t as good as their record, I think this is the time to back them coming off their first blowout loss of the season.  They lost 10-24 on the road to the Rams on Monday Night Football.  The Bears blew 2 red zone opportunities and didn’t score a single point on either.  They threw an INT in the end zone and also turned it over on downs.  That was the difference in the game.  I like their chances of bouncing back at home this week against the New Orleans Saints.  The Saints are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, and that has shown in their 1-4 ATS record in their last 5 games.  They lost outright as favorites to both the Packers and Raiders, and they had narrow wins over the Lions by 6, Chargers by 3 and Panthers by 3.  Drew Brees is a shell of his former self and may not have his 2 best receivers this week in Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.  And the Saints are built for domes and not for outdoors.  It’s worth noting that this will be their first outdoor game all season as they have played 4 home games and 2 road dome games against the Lions and Raiders.  The Bears have the defense that can keep them in this game for 4 quarters, just as they did against the Bucs a few weeks back in their 20-19 upset home win.  And helping them will be the forecast, which is calling for 38 degree temps and 22 MPH winds.  Take Chicago.

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Released on Oct 28 at 10:34 am View Archive

John Martin

Nov 01 '20, 4:25 PM in 2d
NFL | Saints vs Bears
Play on: UNDER 44 -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Saints/Bears UNDER 44

The forecast in Chicago Sunday in calling for a temps in the 30s and winds exceeding 20 MPH as of this writing.  And this will be the first time this season that the Saints will have to play an outdoor game as their first six games have all been in domes.  The Bears are just a dead nuts UNDER team with a 5-2 UNDER record this season.  The only two games that went over were in their two ferocious comeback wins on the road over the Lions and Falcons, which were both dome games.  All four of their outdoor games have went UNDER plus their 10-24 loss to the Rams on Monday.  The Bears have an elite defense and one of the worst offenses in the NFL, which is why they are built for UNDERS.  The Saints could be missing their top two receivers in Thomas and Sanders this week, so things are going to be even tougher on Drew Brees.  The Saints only give up 328 yards per game this season which is one of the best marks in the NFL.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Bears last 28 home games.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Bears last 26 games on grass.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Give me the UNDER.

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Released on Oct 28 at 10:53 am View Archive

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