10* FREE PLAY OF THE DAY
Baltimore Ravens -6.5
Even though Baltimore has been pretty bad this season and got very lucky against Pittsburgh, Cleveland is still worse. Just in a scheduling stand point, the Ravens have the clear edge in this one. Baltimore played last Thursday so they have the extra time to rest/prepare for this game. Cleveland played in San Diego and has to travel all the way across the country for their second straight road game. I don't see Baltimore taking it easy or looking passed the Browns since they could very easily be 0-4. Being 1-3 now and getting an impressive win here will allow them to get right back into it. Look for the Ravens to get a nice division win at home Sunday.
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Baylor laying eight points in the pin ball Big 12 Conference is nothing. The Bears can put up two scores in less than three minutes.
But eight points in a rugged Big Ten Conference matchup of Northwestern-Michigan definitely means something. These are the two best defenses in the country.
So taking eight points with Northwestern is huge. Heck, the over/under is just 35 points.
The Wildcats are surrendering only seven points a game! They also are fifth in total defense.
Jim Harbaugh is doing a fine job with the Wolverines. But Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald is good, too. Northwestern is 5-0, including 2-0 as underdogs. The Wildcats have knocked off Stanford, Duke and shut out Minnesota last Saturday.
I'm not overly fond of Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock, who has more interceptions than touchdowns. Harbaugh relies on a ground attack that ranks 35th in the country averaging 201.4 yards. Rudock is more a game manager.
But Northwestern has a strong defensive front seven and will be keying on Michigan's rushing game. The Wildcats rank 26th in the nation in rush defense holding foes to 117.4 yards per game on the ground. I don't believe Rudock can make enough plays to push Michigan to more than a field goal victory - if the Wolverines even win. This has been a real tight series. Michigan won, 10-9, last year. The teams played triple overtime two years ago. None of the past three games in the series have been decided by more than seven points during regulation.
Northwestern should be fully focused. I'm not sure I can say that about Michigan as the Wolverines host arch-rival Michigan State next week.
Pittsburgh is coming off its best performance of the year last week in shutting down Virginia Tech and only allowing 100 yards. Pitt has the 4th best rush defense only allowing 71.25 yards a game. Virginia is a mess right now and are playing bad football. I expect Boyd to have a monster game and Pitt should easily win this by double digits.
Pick= Pittsburgh -9.5
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Look for the draw in this match that takes place early on Sunday morning in Italy Series B. Trapani has draws in 4 of its last 5 matches. These two are #10 and #7 in their league. Hope to see 1-1.
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My own adjusted power rankings suggest that Duke (4-1) on a neutral Field should be close to a 3 TD favorite vs Army (1-4). After adjusting for the Black Knights home filed advantage at West Point I feel a line based only on power rankings should be closer to -17 . The line we are getting from the books on the opening (-11.5), takes into considerations a few other factors as well, which includes the Knights four losses which have come by an average of 4 points. After adjusting for variables and possible outcomes, based solely on both teams bringing in their A games, I feel ,we actually have value taking the traveling Devils. A fair amount of sharp money also agreed with my assessment, because at the time of this write up, the line was at -12 to -12.5. Ok guys, I know backing big away chalk consistently seems square, but I don't make a habit of laying money down on DD road favorites, and I respect Army's play to this point in the season. But my other considerations on this conservative investment outlay are based on both my own personal line assessments and match-nup discrepancies, and Dukes defensive ability to deal with the Black Knights triple option attack. Duke has the ability to score in bunches despite of early season struggles , after being tested hugely vs Boston College and Northwestern defenses that are two of the best in the nation. After those tribulations, going against this Army D, will be like a walk in the park. The Knights from the outside looking in , and from a basic statistical stand point look fairly average on defense, but a closer look , shows The Black Knights rank 80th in opponent yards per play, 84th in yards per pass, and 101st in opponent completion percentage. With that said, I expect Dukes aerial attack to flourish and find striking targets downfield on a consistent basis. On the flip side Duke's defense has played smash mouth ball allowing an average of only 10 points per game, which is not good news for a Army offense that only showed a heart beat in games vs Fordham and E. Michigan. Things Im betting get bad here for Army because of their inability to throw down field which will allow Dukes underated LB monsters to stack the box.
With this game prior to a bye week, Im betting the Devils leave everything on the field and come away with a bigger margin of victory than expected.
Projected score: Duke 31 Army 13
Play on Duke 1/2 unit comp selection
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On Friday the free CFL Totals play is on the under 50 points in the Saskathchewan at Hamilton game at 7:35 eastern. This game fits a powerful totals system that has cashed over 75% long term and involves road teams that lost the turnover battle by -2 or greater in there last game. Saskatchewan has played under in 13 of 20 as a road dog from +7.5 to +10. Hamilton has stayed under in 3 of 3 vs losing teams, 8 of 10 in October games and 6 of 7 at home. In the series these two have gone under in 5 of the last 6. Look for this one to stay under tonight. Football ranked #1 overall last season. Friday power card has a 91% MLB Playoff payoff system and a Double perfect ESPN ACC Power play and NHL. Jump On and cash big as we get Columbus day weekend off to a fast start. For the free play. Take the under tonight. RV
Recommendation: Take Purdue (#314)
The betting markets play very close attention to NFL injuries, with the lines swinging fairly significantly on gameday based on player availability. But in college football, the betting markets only seem to react significantly when there is a quarterback injury that sidelines an effective starter. That’s how we see lines like this one, with Minnesota as road favorites as they travel to West Lafayette to take on Purdue this Saturday.
The Gophers have a third year starter at QB in Mitch Leidner. But Leidner has been completely ineffective – only 91 completed passes for 950 yards and four TD’s in their first five games of the season – because of the injuries surrounding him. He’s not fully healthy either. Head coach Jerry Kill: “He’s been beat up. You get hit — and we’ve been beat up on the offensive line — and he’s taken some shots. And you take those kinds of shots, your body wears down. So it’s been tough on him. I don’t think there’s any question about it.”
20 Gopher players missed practice on Wednesday due to injuries, including four starting offensive linemen and secondary studs Briean Boddy-Calhoun and Damarious Travis. Kill’s quote speaks volumes about why the Gophers have no business as road chalk at Purdue: “I’ve never seen anything like it in my 32 years of coaching. Just one of those years. What do you do? Like I tell our guys, ‘You can’t get down. You just coach them.’ We’re going to play with some young players probably, and that’s part of it. They’ll have to grow up, and we’ll be better down the road for it.”
Purdue hung tough with Minnesota last year, leading most of the game before a late Gopher field goal gave Minnesota a one point victory as 12.5 point favorites. And there’s no reason to think the Boilermakers can’t hang tough again, with frosh QB David Blough rallying the team from a 24-0 deficit at Michigan State last week, giving Purdue a legitimate spark. And with frosh RB Markell Jones coming off his best game -- 157 rushing yards against the Spartans elite defense – a Purdue team that hasn’t had much to be excited about in recent seasons has some legitimate positive momentum right now. Expect the outright upset! Take Purdue.
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The Michigan State Spartans enter this contest with a 0-5 ATS record. Despite being favored in all five of their games, they have only out-gained the opposition by just 11 yards overall this season. This is a classic look ahead game for Michigan State because they have in state rival Michigan on deck for next week. The Spartans have dealt with overwhelming injuries this season as they come into this one missing a handful of their top players. Rutgers comes in off a bye last week so they will have had two weeks to prepare for this contest. The Scarlet Knights have spent the past couple weeks hearing about how they can't compete with the bigger CFB programs. Rutgers starting quarterback Chris Laviano has completed over 70 percent of his passes overall. The Scarlet Knights will play this game like it's their National Championship and keep this game within the generous number. Free Play Rutgers plus the points.
1* Free Play Packers.
The Rams surprised everyone with their outright SU win over the Cardinals last week, but if this team has shown anything this season, it's been it's unbelievable inconsistency from week to week. After beating division rival Seattle in its opener, St. Louis would then promptly lose to a mediocre Redskins team in Week 2 and now has to face Aaron Rodgers and the 4-0 SU/ATS Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. There's no question that this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Rams after another tough divisional win and note that from a trend based standpoint, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as St. Louis is just 1-5 SU its last six vs. the Pack and only 4-9 SU its last 13 on the road (also just 2-5 ATS its last seven overall), while Green Bay is 5-0 SU its last five at home and 7-2 SU its last nine vs. the Rams at Lambeau. We're going to lay the points as we expect the visitors to get caught "looking ahead" to their bye the following week, followed by back-to-back "cream puffs" at home vs. the Browns and 49'ers respectively; consider a second look at GREEN BAY in this one.
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #371 Take Miami Hurricanes over Florida State Seminoles (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Doc’s Sports is coming off a free pick winner in Week 5 of the college football season and expect more of the same this weekend. We full feature top plays on Saturday and Sunday and you can get all of the action right here. Just do not believe Florida State is that good this season. Miami is coming off a disappointing loss to Cincinnati last Thursday but despite that I am still a big fan of Brad Kaaya and the offense of Miami. The visitor is 7-2 straight-up in this series over the last 9 game. 11 of the last 14 meetings have been decided by a touchdown of less and if that holds true again we will win no matter who comes out on top. The Seminoles have yet to be tested this season and they are just not as explosive without Jameis Winston who bailed them out of numerous games last season. Take the points in this rivalry game.
Temple over Tulane...Saturday College Football
The Greenies (2-2) are traveling after playing (45-31) UCF who did not have their starting QB in the lineup. The third string UCF QB threw three touches in the 4th quarter when the game was over! We note, Tulane can not play with Temple (4-0) at the line of scrimmage. In addition, inconsistent Temple QB P. J. Walker should have a huge day against the shaky secondary of the visitor. In fact, the Tulane passing defensive efficiency is ranked #93 in the latest NCAA listings. SOS...Tulane played two class "B" units this season in Duke and Georgia Tech losing by a combined score of 102-17. The Owls show 6-0 ATS after back-to-back SU wins vs. non-conference types. Good Luck!
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For some reason the betting public continues to like the Eagles, despite them showing nothing that would indicate them being worthy of a wager. Both teams come into this matchup at 1-3. The Saints knocked off the Cowboys in overtime on Sunday night, while the Eagles fell by 3 to the Redskins. There is a huge difference in the NFL between being 2-3 and 1-4. The team that ends up falling to 1-4 after this contest will be looking to next year, with their season essentially over. The team that wins and ends up at 2-3 is still very much alive. All indications point to the Saints at least covering the number here.
Drew Brees is back from injury, obvious though very crucial to a play on the Saints here. This offense is built around Brees. He makes everyone around him better, especially his receivers. Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead should have big games against this Philadelphia secondary. Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller lead the rushing attack. Spiller has also given New Orleans another dimension to their offense, a back that can catch and run. I expect Spiller’s role in the Saints passing game to increase as the season progresses.
Chip Kelly isn’t having near the amount of success with his offense as he would have hoped for coming into the season. One of the biggest reasons is DeMarco Murray isn’t being utilized as much as he should. Murray was the NFL’s leading rusher last season and broke Emmitt Smith’s record for the most rushing yards in Cowboy’s franchise history. He needs more touches for this team to be successful, plain and simple. Because of the questionable play calling, Philly is averaging just 70 yards per game on the ground. Murray carried the ball just 8 times for 36 yards in their loss to the Redskins. Not a recipe for success. Take the points with the team that’s in the better current form. Take the Saints.
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5* Free Play on Navy (+14.5). We love backing triple-option teams as big underdogs as their slow, time consuming offense eats the clock away and the favorite doesn't have as many possessions to cover the big number. It's no surprise then that Navy is 10-1 against the spread here in Notre Dame, where they typically are listed as a big underdog. Last year, Navy lost by 10 points (as a 14-point underdog) at home.
The year prior the game was played here in South Bend, with Navy losing by just four points as a 16.5-point underdog. Irish beat triple-option Georgia Tech earlier this year, but didn't stop the Yellow Jackets offense giving up over 200 yards rushing and 22 points. A similar offensive output in this game should be more than enough to cover this big number. Add in the obvious look-ahead spot with USC next week, and we think Navy can stay within single-digits of the Irish. 5* Free Play on Notre Dame.
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SATURDAY BIG 10 FREE PLAY
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Wisconsin at Nebraska
Well low and behold when my odds tracker lit up with this week’s opening lines late Sunday, I feel out of my chair damn near it when I saw the Huskers were favored against Wisconsin. I must admit I am partial to Nebraska, I went there, they are my Alma mater, and both my children within 25 minutes of birth in Lincoln Nebraska, had Husker stocking caps on in the hospital nursery. You see in the land of Husker Nation, you are born a Husker, you have no choice. Well it is not the 1990’s anymore where Nebraska dominated the college landscape and Tom Osborne is gone, Frank Solich is winning MAC Divisions titles, Bill Callahan is coaching Offensive Lines in the NFL and Bo Pelini is in Youngstown Ohio wondering if Husker Nation Misses him now! Did I mention both Solich and Pelini were fired after 9 win seasons? Being a spoiled Husker Nation has caught up with Nebraska fans and now they have a lame duck coach and have to live with a bad hire and one of the worst defenses in college football.
Nebraska’s love affair with Mike Riley is over. The Huskers lost to Big 10 bottom dweller Illinois last week, again late in the game, and again more of a coaching debacle than anything else. They say rain hampered the Husker’s offensive attack. No, the coaching hampered Nebraska’s attack. You come up against a team who was allowing 6 yards per carry, and you open up the game throwing it with a QB that is very inconsistent throwing, and did I mention this was Nebraska, home of the running back and they have 2 good ones in the fold. So if coaching and the rain hampered Nebraska last week, it will be the Badgers 11th ranked defense that will hamper them this week.
Wisconsin destroyed Nebraska last year and Melvin Gordon ran wild for 408 yards in that game and was pulled early to call off the embarrassment. Wisconsin has issues of their own as Iowa beat them last week with some defense and quite frankly a better team, but there is no way Nebraska should be laying points to anyone right now in the Big 10, the play calling is deplorable, the coaching is iffy at best, and while Husker Nation will be strong in Lincoln on Saturday and I will personally be in the crowd, but at days end I prefer a fat wallet and deflated ego versus betting the same ol Husker Tradition at home and losing money. Bottom line is Wisconsin lost to a good Big 10 team who is undefeated and ranked and Nebraska lost to unranked bottom feeder from the Big 10. Nothing more, nothing less.
Wisconsin has beaten Nebraska 129-55 the last 2 times they played and they are catching points? Did I mention you may see Wisconsin throwing the ball around a bit more than usual in this game as the Huskers rank 128th in college football in passing yards allowed and 102nd overall on defense, and again they are laying points?
Give me the Badgers +1
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Play on Game #362 Tennessee Vols (Saturday,3:30 PM EST )
Georgia comes into this game beat up physically and demoralized after losing to Alabama last week. That was a game that the school really wanted to win. Now, they have to travel to Knoxville to face a Tennessee Vols team that is in dire need of a win and with a bye week on deck, they will be fully focused on this game.
The Vols come into this game only 2-3 on the season. They have had a double digit lead in all three of their losses (vs. Oklahoma, Florida, and Arkansas). So this is a team that is VERY close to being 5-0, but instead is 2-3. If they were 5-0, then the Vols would be at least a 3 point favorite here. But instead, we are catching them getting points at home getting great value. Butch Jones is 3-1 ATS as a homedog with the Vols.
Looking at last year's game, the Vols almost upset Georgia on the road losing 35-32. This is a much improved Vols team this season from when that game was played last year in Week 4. Worley was the QB for the Vols at the time. Joshua Dobbs gives the Vols much more flexibility and chances to make explosive plays with his legs. Also the Vols offensive line is a lot better. Through 5 games, the Vols have only allowed 10 sacks. At this time last year, the quarterback was getting clobbered at a record pace.
Georgia was +16 in turnover margin last year. It is hard to duplicate such success 2 years in a row. This season they are -even- in turnover margin.
The Georgia quarterback Grayson Lambert is making only his 2nd career road start in the SEC. His first was @ Vandy a few weeks ago and Georgia won 31-14, but Lambert was only 11-for-21 for 116 yards. Against Alabama last week, Lambert was 10-for-24 for 86 yards only. He best games this season were vs. Southern, Louisiana Monroe, and South Carolina. Point being Lambert is not ready to step up vs. stiffer competition. Nick Chubb can't do it all himself either.
In Georgia's only road game this season, they beat Vanderbilt, 31-14, but needed a pick 6 and a punt return for a touchdown to beat them. The offense only scored 17 points. Also a terrible Vandy pass offense had 295 yards passing against the Bulldogs defense which is another red flag.
Special teams: The Bulldogs special teams is way down this season. They rank last in the nation in kickoff returns (14 yards per return). They rank 119th in punting at only 32 yards per punt and they also rank 87th and 85th in punt and kickoff coverage. Tennessee is ranked #1 in kickoffs returns and #6 in punting. Big Special Teams advantage for the Vols.
Look for a motivated Tennessee team to come out of town with a cover this Saturday vs. a Georgia team that is beat up and still trying to get over their embarrassing loss to Alabama last week.
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I'm recommending a play on Ga Tech on Saturday afternoon. Big win for the Tigers last week, holding on for a 24-22 victory over previously unbeaten Notre Dame. Time to make the adjustment for Ga Tech's option attack. The Yellow Jackets have had little trouble piling up yards against the Clemson defense over the last few meetings and will be in an ornery mood after dropping three straight games, falling out of the rankings. Tech squashed the Tigers, 28-6 last season, so Clemson will have the revenge angle, but they're off back-to-back high intensity, close wins over Louisville and the Irish. The Tigers gave up over 430 yards to Notre Dame in the win last weekend. Ga Tech's ground game has been below par during their losing skid, but again, they're not only catching Clemson at the right time, but have the confidence knowing they have moved the ball against this stop unit in recent meetings. Ga Tech is on a 9-3 ATS run, overall, while the Tigers have failed to cover six straight ACC contests. I'm recommending a play on Georgia Tech plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for this game. Duke is off to a 3-2 start this season as the offense has been inconsistent but the defense has picked up the slack by allowing just 269.8 ypg and 10.6 ppg, good for 9th and 5th in the country respectively. Because of the stop unit, the Blue Devils have stayed below the total in all five of their games this season. This is not a particularly good matchup however for another low scoring game as the offense should have no problem scoring a bunch here. The offense was held to 10 points three games back against Northwestern and nine points against Boston College last time out and those are two of the top three scoring defenses in the country. In comparison, Army is ranked 82nd in scoring defense so Duke can get back to normal here. The Black Knights have had a tough luck season as they are 1-4 with the four losses coming by 2, 5, 3 and 6 points with the last coming against Penn St. Even though the schedule has been pretty difficult, they are averaging a solid 27.6 ppg so even coming close to that here will push this one way over as we can expect Duke to get its fair share of points. The over is 7-2-1 in the Blue Devils last 10 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game while the over is 11-5 in the Black Knights last 16 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Play Over (321) Duke Blue Devils/(322) Army Black Knights
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10/09 06:45 PM EST MLB (905) CHICAGO CUBS VS (906) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.
Reason: Your free play for Friday, October 9, 2015 is in the MLB contest between the Cubs and the Cardinals. A pair of strong arms on the mound in St. Louis, the latter a terrific defensive team in the field. St. Louis is 5-1 under the total in playoff home games and 9-4-2 under the total following an off day. The Cardinals offense is bottom 10 and they face Chicago ace lefty Jon Lester. The Under is 11-1-1 in Lester's last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record, plus 11-4 under the total in the Cubs last 15 games following an off day. They face a strong veteran arm in John Lackey and the under is 9-1-1 in the Cubs last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. And when these foes clash the Under is 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts vs. the Cubs, while Lester is 3-1-1 under against the Cards. Play Cubs/Cards under the total.
Play - Tennessee Vols.
Edges - Volunteers: 7-2 ATS in this series, including 3-0 the last three. Bulldogs: 0-6 ATS in SEC games off a loss. With Georgia head coach Mark Richt a rotten 3-14 ATS in his career in games off a double-digit loss, we recommend a 1* play on Tennessee. Thank you and good luck as always.
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The Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets in Game 1 of the NLDS on Friday, and they will be a heavy favorite. The Dodgers ace comes into this game on top form, and I don't like the Mets chances here in the series opener. I'll take the Dodgers on the runline in Game 1.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Clayton Kershaw struck out 20 batters through 12.2 innings in his final two starts of the season. He was 11-3 with a 1.67 ERA in 17 starts at Dodger Stadium this season. The Mets will counter with Jacob deGrom, who's numbers are far better at home than they are on the road, and far better during the day than they are at night.
2. Home Cookin' - The Dodgers finished with a major league best 55 home wins, and they have won six of their last eight home games during the post-season.
3. X-Factor - The Dodgers are 8-1 in Kershaw's last nine home starts versus the New York Mets.
Selection: This is a play on the LAD -1.5 on the Run Line (1* Free Pick)
Take NC State +2 1.1* Play
Anytime NC State stepped up in competition last year they lost and they particularly struggled vs. solid defenses. NC State lost last week against Louisville in their own building and now travel on the short week to play against Virginia Tech who lost at home to Pittsburgh. On paper it looks like a nice night for Frank Beamer and the Hokies to get a nice win, but I'm actually going to lean towards NC State in this one as I have definitely talked myself out of backing the Hokies.
First of all the Hokies defense is not as good as they were supposed to be ranking 109th in yards per carry, and 102nd overall in yards per play. Not a very good sign going up against NC State which features a very good duo at QB in Jacoby Brisset and Matthew Dayes at RB. Virginia Tech will have it's hand full with an offense that is dangerous in the red zone scoring TD's on 21 of their 24 possessions. Granted it those have been against lesser defenses, but Virginia Tech has not shown enough this year to make me believe and the fact that they mustered just 100 yards of total offense last week against Pitt leads me to believe that NC State should win this game.
Virginia Tech has not been able to run the ball, NC State has been better at stopping it. Virginia Tech probably gets Brewer back at QB, but he'll struggle against this secondary, and NC State still has a very under rated defense that should keep them in this game. Actually NC State also rarely gets penalized making it much easier for an offense that converts 47% of their 3rd downs compared to 25% allowed. Virginia Tech comes in at 39% and 30% allowed and has averaged 5 more penalties per game. NC state must take care of the ball and not make the mistake sand they've been able to do that all year and that will be enough for them to come out of here with a win.
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10* FREE MLB PICK (Mets/Dodgers U5.5)
We are seeing an extremely low total for Friday's NLDS series opener for Dodgers/Mets and for good reason. The Dodgers will send out Clayton Kershaw, who has a 1.34 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in 9 career starts against the Mets and New York gives the ball to Jacob deGrom, who allowed just 2 hits over 7 2/3 scoreless innings in his only start against the Dodgers this season. Add in the fact that both teams have been off since Sunday and I look for both offenses to struggle to get going against these two flame-throwers. UNDER is 30-15 in Kershaw's last 45 starts as a favorite of -175 to -200 and 5-0 in his last 5 home starts against a team with a winning record. Give me the UNDER 5.5!
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Price's Friday Free Play:
1* on New York Mets +1.5 (-130)
The Key: I'll take a stab on the New York Mets on the run line today in Game 1 of this series with the Dodgers. Jaco DeGrom and Clayton Kershaw have both been worth Cy Young winners this season, and I look for a pitcher's duel here that could easily be decided by one run one way or the other. DeGrom is 14-8 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in 30 starts this year. DeGrom pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings in his only start against the Dodgers in 2015 back in July, and he allowed only 4 base runners while striking out 8. Take New York on the Run Line.
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Chip's NCAA 5-Pack of Best Bet Winners
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Saturday, Oct 10
Oklahoma at Texas 12:00 ET
Longhorns (+) over Sooners- The Longhorns program is in desperate shape as Charlie Strong's club has more fight in the locker room then they do on the field. At 1-4 Texas is off to their worst start in 60 years and things don't look like they are getting any better. The University has already fired A.D. Steve Patterson and work has it that Strong may be gone soon enough. But, this game is the 'Red River' rivalry and is always the biggest game on the schedule for both clubs. Why take Texas here well Oklahoma is just 3-9 ATS as conference favorites of 10 or more and the 'Horns are 6-3-1 ATS in this matchup in the last 10. Take TEXAS!
Chip's NCAA 3-Pack of Best Bet Winners
Chip Chirimbes the Las Vegas Hilton Handicapping Champion SWEPT (3-0) with his Top-3 releases last Saturday including his Vegas Insider (5-0) winner Arizona State (+13) 38-23 OUTRIGHT over UCLA. Chip is now 24-6 80% with his last 30 'Highest-Rated' Vegas Insider Best Bet releases. Chip is a 5-time College Handicapping Champion and Saturday he has 3-NCAA Best Bet winners at a discounted price. Receive his Famous Megabucks Best Bet winner between Georgia Tech and Clemson, his Power Play Best Bet between Wisconsin and Nebraska, his Money Game winner between Florida and Missouri. Get it ALL NOW, only $99!
The Horned Frogs might never have a first half like they did at home against Texas last week, but it doesn't mean they can't roll through the Wildcats this week in Manhattan.
I am looking for the Frogs to outscore K-State by at least a TD per quarter on the way to an easy victory that continues to build the Heisman candidacy of Trevone Boykin.
This year's KSU group is not the underdog threat others have been.
Play the Frogs -10.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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Game 364: Western Kentucky -8
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4-0 Last Week with these incredible Top-Informational Plays. 3 Top-Informational Plays go Saturday. Step up and win some big cash with these games!
Three College Football Top-Informational Plays (4-0 Last Week)
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ASA PLAY ON UConn +3 over UCF - The better team is definitely getting points here. UConn is much improved this year while UCF is WAY down from previous editions. Husky coach Bob Diaco has made a big deal of this game calling in a “new” rivalry and actually naming it the “Civil Conflict”. It worked last year as his UConn team beat a very good UCF team. This year the Knights are 0-5 both SU & ATS. On top of that, they are really banged up with 8 starters leaving the game last week (a blowout loss to a bad Tulane team). They are hoping QB Holman can come back after not making the trip last week but even if he does, it will be tough for him as he had a fractured finger. UCF’s offense is among the worst in college football averaging just 266 YPG on only 4 YPP. Despite playing a tougher schedule (22nd toughest in the nation) UConn is better on both sides of the ball. Their YPP differential (YPP offense minus YPP defense) is -0.2. UCF’s is a terrible -1.8. The Huskies have already played BYU, Mizzou, and Navy and played well in all including a 9-6 loss @ Missouri. UCF’s home field advantage has been non-existent this year losing their only 2 as hosts to FIU & Furman. Take the points with the better team.
Free Pick on Alabama -
While you could argue that Alabama is in a bit of a letdown spot, coming off that big game against Georgia and another huge road game on deck against Texas A&M, I don’t think this team can afford to overlook any SEC opponent after already losing a conference game at home to Ole Miss.
It’s well known that the teams who give Alabama trouble are the ones that run a spread offense with a mobile quarterback. It’s certainly been the case so far in 2015. They gave up 43 points and over 400 yards of total offense to Ole Miss, who likes to spread you out. In game against Wisconsin and Georgia, who like to line up and run the ball right at you, they dominated the two by combined score of 73-28.
Arkansas is one of those teams that fall in line with the Badgers and Bulldogs. Over the Razorbacks’ last 3 games they have averaged 45 rush attempts to just 23.3 pass attempts. I just don’t see Arkansas being able to do much of anything offensively here. They simply aren’t going to be able to run the ball on the Crimson Tide, who are allowing a mere 2.7 yards/carry against teams that average 4.5. Last year the Razorbacks averaged 218 yards/game on the ground, yet only managed 89 on 39 carries against Alabama.
While Arkansas’s defense has been solid against the run, only giving up 101.6 ypg (16th), they haven’t exactly faced a legit rushing attack with their 5 games coming against UTEP, Toledo, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Tennessee. Alabama has shown they can run on whoever they go up against, as they put up 238 yards against Wisconsin, 215 against Ole Miss and 189 on Georgia.
The Crimson Tide are also a much more dynamic offensive team than they get credit for. Alabama has scored at least 34 points in all 5 of their games this season. Even if they get to just 34 points in this game, Arkansas would need to score 18 to cover. That’s asking a lot, given the Razorbacks have scored a combined 13-points in their last 3 games against the Crimson Tide. You also have to factor in that Arkansas isn’t a team that’s built to play from behind, so if Alabama is able to get out to an early lead, this game could spiral out of control and end up closer to the 52-0 score from 2013.
With last week’s win and cover against Georgia, the Crimson Tide improved to 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games played in the month of October. It’s also worth noting that as the head coach of Alabama, Nick Saban has gone 13-2 ATS in his last 15 games when his team has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and are 24-14 ATS in their last 38 after a win by 28 or more points. Arkansas head coach Brett Bielema is 0-8 ATS in all road games he’s coached against a team that is allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry. Take Alabama!
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Play Florida (Game 389).
The 5-0 Florida Gators have become the favorite in the SEC East, after back-to-back, outright victories over Tennessee and Mississippi. Missouri has the SEC's top-scoring defense but allowed their only good offensive opponent, Kentucky to put up 21 points in a loss. Backup QB, Drew Lock starts his second career start in place of suspended, Maty Mauk. The Tigers' offense is in a tight-spot here, as their leading ball-carrier, Russell Hansbrough is still hampered by an ankle issue but is expected to play. Mizzou has no ground game (113th nationally) which doesn't bode well facings UF's swarming pass "D". The Gators are 7-1 ATS their L8 overall, 5-1 ATS their L6 Conference games, and 5-0 ATS their L5 road games. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS their L5 overall, 1-4 ATS their L5 on field-turf, and 0-4 ATS their L4 following a SU win. Take Florida. Thank you.