At first glance, a total of 10.5 looks inflated considering Eric Lauer has pitched well since joining the Dodgers and rookie Gage Jump owns an outstanding 2.04 ERA. That's precisely why this becomes a strong situational OVER. Rather than fading the oddsmakers for posting such a high number, we use their knowledge to our advantage. When the total is significantly higher than the season averages of both teams and both starting pitchers, the market has historically been pointing bettors in the right direction, producing OVER winners at a 56 percent clip across more than 3,000 games. Add in the enhanced angle involving runners stranded in the previous game, and that record improves to an outstanding 554-331, cashing at 62.6 percent.
Jump has been impressive, but this is by far his toughest assignment. Through six major league starts he has yet to allow a home run, an extremely difficult rate to sustain against one of baseball's deepest and most dangerous lineups. The Dodgers average more than 5.2 runs per game and have the patience and power to force young pitchers into mistakes. Even if Jump pitches well early, he is unlikely to work deep into the game after throwing as many as 107 pitches recently, bringing an Athletics bullpen with a 4.77 ERA into the spotlight.
Lauer's recent numbers also deserve a closer look. His Dodgers ERA has been solid, but he has still surrendered five home runs in just over 28 innings with Los Angeles and has always been susceptible to the long ball throughout his career. The Athletics have quietly been far more competitive offensively than many realize, averaging 4.6 runs per game while playing in games that average nearly 10 total runs.
The bullpens also favor offense. The Dodgers' relief corps has struggled lately, posting an 8.25 ERA over its last three games, while Oakland's bullpen has been inconsistent throughout the season and is vulnerable if Jump exits after five or six innings.
History between these clubs also points toward offense, with the OVER cashing in eight of the last ten meetings. Covers' projection has both teams scoring over six runs, reinforcing the expectation that this game has the ingredients for another high-scoring affair.
Everything lines up: a proven long-term oddsmaker-knowledge system, an even stronger enhanced angle, explosive offensive potential on both sides, and bullpens that could turn a good start into a late barrage of runs. This is an excellent spot to back the OVER 10.5.