Folks, nobody’s expecting the St. Louis Cardinals to roll into loanDepot park and light the place on fire on a random Tuesday night, but at plus-money around +100 to +105 against the Miami Marlins, they’re suddenly looking like the kind of underdog bet that makes you feel smart instead of sorry.
The Cardinals are sitting at 13-9 overall and have already shown they can hold their own on the road (6-4 away from Busch Stadium so far). Their lineup has been quietly putting up extra-base hits all season, with Jordan Walker swinging a hot bat at .306 with eight homers already. The guy looks like he’s having fun out there, which is more than you can say for a lot of teams grinding through April. Add in Alec Burleson and the rest of the crew chipping in, and you’ve got an offense that can punish pitchers who leave the ball anywhere near the middle of the plate , even in a park that tends to swallow up some power.
On the hill, Dustin May (2-2, 6.98 ERA) is the guy getting the ball. Yeah, that ERA looks ugly at first glance, but zoom in a bit and you’ll see he’s cleaned things up lately , just two earned runs in his last two starts while actually sticking around for more innings. That’s the kind of quiet progress that can sneak up on you. Meanwhile, the Marlins are sending out Chris Paddack (0-3, 5.59 ERA), who’s already served up four homers in limited work. Miami’s offense hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire either , only 16 team homers through 23 games and they’re hovering around middle-of-the-pack in scoring. Basically, it’s two teams that can both look a little leaky on the mound, but St. Louis seems better equipped to make the other guy pay.
Let’s not forget the history books are heavily in the Cardinals’ favor here. They lead the all-time series 138-92 against Miami, and even in recent years they’ve had a knack for winning the tight ones when they visit. The Marlins are 11-12 overall and a decent 8-5 at home, but they’ve looked shaky at times against NL Central-style lineups and still struggle to score consistently in their own ballpark.
At the end of the day, the Cardinals have won about 61% of their underdog games so far this young season. So when you can get them at even money or better on the road against a Marlins team that’s been inconsistent, it starts to feel like one of those sneaky-good spots where the “underdog” label is doing most of the heavy lifting.
Here’s hoping Dustin May keeps trending in the right direction, Walker keeps mashing, and the Cardinals walk out of Miami with a win that pays a little extra. Because let’s be honest , nothing feels better than cashing a plus-money ticket when the “msm sports talking heads ” weren’t really paying attention.
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