1* Free Pick on Michigan -105
Michigan is the better basketball team right now and the market is telling you that with this short price. They enter this rivalry game with a significant advantage in offensive efficiency and floor spacing.
The Wolverines are currently ranking among the nation’s elite in effective field goal percentage. They move the ball quickly and consistently find open looks even against aggressive defenses.
Michigan State is struggling to find a rhythm on the offensive end this season. Their half-court sets often break down, leading to forced shots and low-percentage looks late in the shot clock.
The Spartans have been far too careless with the basketball throughout conference play. Michigan’s backcourt is disciplined and will turn those live-ball turnovers into easy transition points at the other end.
There is a clear gap in perimeter shooting between these two rosters. Michigan has multiple threats who can stretch the floor, while the Spartans lack consistent shooters to keep up in a high-possession game.
Michigan State’s defensive scheme is designed to protect the paint, but they struggle to close out on high-volume three-point teams. This system is a nightmare matchup for a Spartan defense that gets lost on screens.
Michigan has also proven they can hold their own on the glass. They are winning the rebounding battle in nearly every Big Ten game and limiting second-chance opportunities for their opponents.
The home-court advantage in East Lansing is already baked into this line, yet Michigan is still essentially a pick'em. That tells you the oddsmakers respect the Wolverines' talent much more than the Spartans' current form.
Michigan is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven trips to the Breslin Center. They won't be rattled by the atmosphere and have the veteran leadership to close this out late.
I like the Michigan ML (-105).
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