1* Free Pick on Dodgers -156
The Dodgers are in a prime spot to dominate at home tonight. This price is shorter than it should be given the massive gap in starting pitching.
Los Angeles is sending a front-line starter to the mound with a FIP nearly a full run lower than his ERA. He has been unlucky lately but his strikeout-to-walk ratio remains elite.
The Mets offense is sliding in the wrong direction. They have the second-highest strikeout rate in the National League over their last seven games.
New York also struggles mightily against high-velocity righties. They are hitting under .220 this season against pitchers who average over 96 miles per hour on the fastball.
The bullpen situation favors the Dodgers even more. Los Angeles had an off-day recently and their high-leverage arms are completely fresh.
The Mets used their top two relievers in back-to-back games over the weekend. If this game is close late, New York does not have the depth to bridge the gap to the ninth inning.
Travel is another major factor in this matchup. The Mets are playing their first game on the West Coast after a grueling series out east.
Los Angeles has been home for nearly a week and has settled into a winning rhythm. They are 12-4 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing road record.
The Dodgers' lineup creates constant pressure from the first inning to the ninth. They lead the league in walks and will force an inconsistent Mets staff to throw strikes.
When the Mets are forced to challenge these hitters, the ball is going to leave the park. Take the better roster with the rest advantage in their own building.
I like the Dodgers ML (-156).
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