Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Detroit Lions -7
The Detroit Lions are 15-0 SU & 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss. They are coming off a 41-34 loss in Los Angeles against what most believe is the best team in the NFL in the Rams. The Lions are in must-win mode the rest of the way if they want to make the playoffs, and they will be putting their best foot forward this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
With Pittsburgh's win over Miami on Monday Night Football, the Steelers now have the assurance that they can afford to lose their next two games as long as they beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18 and still win the division. Knowing they have that in the back of their minds, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Steelers fail to show up this week.
It's a short week for the Steelers as well after playing a very physical game with the Dolphins in the cold Monday night. Injuries are starting to pile up for Pittsburgh as they will be without LB T.J. Watt, LB Nick Herbig and CB James Pierre on defense. Their offensive line is a mess as they are already down LT Broderick Jones and swing tackle Calvin Anderson, who are both on IR. They are down to a 4th-stringer at tackle, LG Isaac Seumalo is out with a triceps injury, and C Zach Frazier was held out of practice Thursday before getting a limited in Friday with a triceps injury as well.
The Lions are 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 11.6 points per game. They were last seen beating Dallas 44-30 as 3.5-point home favorites. Their offense is basically fully healthy right now and one of the best offenses in the NFL. They rank 1st in scoring offense at 30.6 points per game, 4th in total offense at 379.9 yards per game and 1st at 6.4 yards per play. They have been playing even better on this side of the ball since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties.
I just don't think the Steelers are equipped to keep up in a shootout. They rank 27th in total offense at 288.1 yards per game. They have a very predictable offense that is all dink and dunk to tight ends and running backs, with the occasional big play to their only proven receiver in DK Metcalf sprinkled in.
The Lions have some injuries in their secondary, but the Steelers aren't the team that can exploit it. And when you look at the numbers, the Lions have actually been the better defensive team this season. Pittsburgh is 28th in total defense at 363.3 yards per game while Detroit is 21st at 337.9 yards per game. The Steelers are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL, and they will get exposed by a much superior Lions team that simply wants it more this weekend. Bet the Lions Sunday.
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