Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Heat/Raptors UNDER 220
This game will be played at a snail's pace tonight as the Toronto Raptors rank 25th in pace while the Miami Heat rank 29th. The defensive intensity will be there as both teams are battling for playoff positioning in the East, and I think this game stays UNDER 220 as a result.
The first meeting between these teams this season saw 221 combined points. However, the Heat and Raptors combined for just 188 points in the second meeting and 216 points in the third meeting. They only managed 216 despite both teams shooting lights out with the Heat at 54.5% and the Raptors at 51.2% from the field.
Just comparing this total with the totals from the first three meetings, it's easy to see there's value on the UNDER. The last three meetings saw totals of 215.5, 214.5 and 215.5, respectively. So this 220-point total is 4.5 points higher than any of those first three meetings.
Miami is 13-2 UNDER In road games with a total of 210 to 220 this season. The Heat are 7-0 UNDER in road games after scoring 100 points or less this season. The UNDER is 4-0 in Raptors last four games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
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