Free Sports Picks from Top Betting Handicappers - Best Bets of the Day

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 4/23:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday is with the Carolina Hurricanes with the money-line versus the Ottawa Senators in Game Three of their Eastern Conference quarterfinals series. Carolina (55-22-7) took a 2-0 lead in this best-of-seven series on Monday with a 3-2 victory in double-overtime at home against the Senators. The Hurricanes have won 26 of their last 37 games against teams that are winning 51-60% of their games. They have also won 14 of their last 22 games on the road against teams with a winning record. Ottawa (44-28-12) has lost three of their last four games — and they return home where they have lost 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 5.5. The Senators have also lost 11 of their last 16 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Take Carolina with the money-line. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 20 of 32 (63%) NHL run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays along with an 11 of 15 (73%) NHL playoff featured plays run going back to last season! Frank is also on a 12 of 18 (67%) NHL Game of the Month/Year streak — and now he furthers his 8 of 11 (73%) NHL Playoff Game of the Month/Year mark and his 5 of 7 (71%) TOTALS TEAR with NHL Playoff Game of the Month/Year plays with a 25* NHL Conference Total of the Month for Thursday night! DON’T MISS IT!

For my best free pick on the board here for Thursday in NBA Playoff basketball I am looking at the Toronto Raptors hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cavs were one of the worst cover teams in the NBA this season but as of late they have caught fire covering 5 of the last 6 games. Toronto just 1-3 last 4 ATS. Toronto is at home this crowd should be rocking and I expect the best game of the season from the Toronto Raptors who always seem to float under the bettors radars. Look for a close game with Toronto pulling away with under 2 minutes to go. 

Play on the Toronto Raptors plus the points rotation #530

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Dave's Thursday Free Play:

1* on Pirates/Rangers UNDER 7.5

The Key: Both Bubba Chandler and Jacob DeGrom should have their way with these 2 suspect lineups tonight.  Chandler is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in 4 starts for the Pirates this year.  DeGrom is 1-0 with a 2.29 ERA in 4 starts for the Rangers.  The Pirates have a 3.65 ERA and the Rangers have a 3.09 ERA as bullpens.  Take the UNDER.

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1* Free Pick on Wolves +2½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Denver Nuggets -2

The Denver Nuggets blew a 19-point lead in Game 2 and a chance to take a commanding 2-0 series lead.  They are a resilient bunch and after getting called out by McDaniels for their lack of defense, I expect them to respond tonight.  The Nuggets were one of the best road teams in the NBA this season going 26-15 SU & 24-17 ATS on the highway.  The Timberwolves went just 18-23 ATS at home this season.  Denver won both meetings in Minnesota this season.  Give me the Nuggets.

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Avalanche vs Kings 
10 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Kings priced as a 140-underdog. 

NHL Underdog Betting Algorithm Performance 

This NHL betting algorithm has delivered impressive results for those targeting underdog teams in specific situations. Over its application, the algorithm has produced a 38-29 record, translating to a 57% win rate. Bets have averaged a +131 underdog price, resulting in a robust 23% return on investment (ROI). For Dime Bettors, this approach has yielded $25,200 in profits, while those wagering $50 per game have earned $1,260. 

Algorithm Criteria 

Bet on teams that are allowing 2.85 or more goals per game (GPP). 

The selected team and its opponent must have combined for a total of three goals in each of their last two games. 

The game must be scheduled in the second half of the NHL season including the playoffs. 

My top NHL totals bet for tonight is the Under in the Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings matchup, and I’m telling you, this one feels like it’s got “low-scoring grind” written all over it. The Avs already lead the series 2-0, and both of those games have been straight-up nail-biters that ended 2-1, one of them in overtime. If you’ve watched any playoff hockey over the years, you know the drill: once the postseason hits, offenses go into hiding, defenses tighten like a vice, and the total goals per game drops noticeably compared to the regular season. We’re talking historical trends where playoff games average about 20-25 percent fewer goals overall, with unders cashing at a solid clip once the intensity ramps up and teams start playing for every inch of ice.

This series has been the poster child for that trend so far. Colorado’s got all the star power in the world, but they’re running into a Kings squad that’s built for these tight, structured battles at home. LA’s not going to roll over, but they’re also not the type to suddenly turn this into a track meet, they’ve got the goaltending and system play to keep things ugly and low-event. Throw in the fact that playoff hockey historically sees fewer power-play opportunities (teams get disciplined real quick when every mistake can end their season), and you’ve got the perfect recipe for another one of those 2-1 or 3-2 snoozers. It’s almost funny how these two keep flirting with the net but then remember they’re in the playoffs and slam the brakes.

Compare that to the rest of the slate and it stands out even more. Buffalo and Boston have been a little more wide-open lately, and Carolina-Ottawa has had its moments of chaos, but nothing matches the defensive chokehold we’ve seen in Colorado-LA. The key angle here is simple: when a series starts this tight and the home team is desperate to push back without overcommitting, the under has been money in recent postseasons, especially in Western Conference matchups where coaching staffs live and die by neutral-zone play. I’m not chasing fireworks tonight, I’m betting on the grind.

So if you’re scanning the board for a totals spot that actually makes sense with how these games have played out, the Under on Avs-Kings is where my money’s going. Playoff hockey loves to remind us that less is sometimes more, and right now this series is delivering that lesson with a side of comedy. Bet smart, and may your ticket be one of the lucky ones that hits when everyone else is waiting for the goal horn that never comes.