Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Ravens/Chiefs UNDER 53
This is one of the biggest games on the Week 3 slate. It’s two teams that look like contenders in the AFC in the Ravens and Chiefs squaring off. And I think this game will be played close to the vest with points a lot harder to come by than this massive total of 53 would indicate. I certainly believe there’s value with the UNDER for a number of reasons.
For starters, these teams played last December in Kansas City in a game that saw 51 combined points in a 27-24 win by the Chiefs. So they are very familiar with one another as they will now be playing in a rematch early in the season after playing late in the year last season.
The Ravens have a great defense every year and are great again this season. They are giving up just 13.5 points and 274.5 yards per game through two weeks. The Chiefs are clearly improved on defense this season with all of the upgrades they made in the offseason. They are only allowing 18.0 points per game on the season after holding the Raiders to just 10 points last week on the road. And keep in mind the Chiefs’ defense always plays better at home in the friendly, loud confines of Arrowhead Stadium.
The Ravens aren’t as good offensively as they’ve shown thus far. They have played two of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Dolphins and Cardinals. Lamar Jackson looks improved, but now he faces a different animal here in the Chiefs on the road. And I expect the Ravens to deploy a similar strategy to last year’s meeting. They ran the ball 39 times and controlled time of possession to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. They will do the same and try and shorten this game, which definitely favors the UNDER.
UNDERS went 13-3 last week in the NFL. I think all these extra holding penalties being called on the offenses has certainly favored lower scoring games and finally there’s some rules that benefit the defenses. The UNDER is 50-23-1 in the Chiefs’ last 74 home games. Finally, there is a 60% chance of rain Sunday in Kansas City with the forecast calling for scattered thunderstorms. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
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