Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Valparaiso +5
The Valparaiso Beacons are 9-3 SU and 8-3 ATS at home this season. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four conference home games beating Illinois-Chicago, Illinois State, Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois all by 6 points or more.
Now the Beacons want revenge from a 78-74 road loss at Belmont in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago on January 13th. Belmont shot 56.1% from the field while Valpo shot 43.5%, yet it was still just a 4-point margin. The Beacons got 10 offensive rebounds in that contest and should dominate the glass again.
This looks like the ultimate letdown spot for Belmont off five straight wins. The Bruins are coming off a 80-69 home win over MVC contender Illinois State. They shot 58% overall and 56.3% from 3-point range. In their last four MVC road games, three were decided by 5 points or fewer with a 1-point loss at Indiana State, a 2-point win at Drake and a 5-point win at SIU.
After losing the first meeting by 7 on the road last year, Valparaiso got its revenge with a 101-86 home win over Belmont in the 2nd meeting. They also have the rest and preparation advantage after having the last six days off. I expect the Beacons to get their revenge here again and win this game outright. Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.
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