1* Free Play Rockets.
Houston is 3-1 SU, but just 2-2 ATS in this series. Most recently the Mavericks would avoid the dreaded sweep by pulling away for a convincing 121-109 victory in Game 4, but with a shift in venue and with a chance to wrap this one up in front of the home town crowd, I expect the Rockets to be on top form Tuesday night and definitely feel they're worth a second look in this one. Obviously the last thing Houston can afford is to give the Mavs any hope, a loss today would have to be considered a monumental letdown, I simply can't foresee the Rockets not coming in completely focused this time around on both ends of the court. And note, this is in fact a position in which the Mavericks have struggled in for bettors all season long as they're just 19-23 in all road games, only 18-24 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and interestingly, a poor 20-28 ATS vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest. Conversely, take note that this is a spot in which the Rockets have dominated in all year, 28-15 ATS overall in front of the home town crowd, 12-2 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more and a near-perfect 11-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. So what do you think? Can the Mavs steal another one and force a Game 6, or does Houston lay the hammer down at home?
Play - L.A. Angels w/Weaver vs. Gray.
Edges - Angels: Weaver 12-4 last sixteen team starts in this series, including 5-1 last six here. Athletics: Gray 2-6 last eight home team starts. With Weaver looking to avenge a 9-2 loss suffered against Gray in L.A. last Wednesday, we recommend a 1-unit play on the Angels. Thank you and good luck as always.
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The free MLB Power system Play is on the Cleveland Indians. Game 916 at 6:10 eastern. Cleveland has a solid pitching edge here tonight with T. Bauer who has a .95 era this year. he has allowed just 2 runs in 19 innings in his starts. He has won 2 of 3 vs KC. He will be opposed by KC Righty, M .Guthrie who has a 5.50 era on the year. Guthrie has struggled in his last 2 starts here allowing 10 runs in 10 innings on a whopping 21 hits. Cleveland fits a nice system that has won 19 of 287 times since 2004 and plays on home favorites off a home favored loss that scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits, vs an opponent off a road dog win that scored 5 or more runs. Look for Cleveland to bounce back. On Tuesday its another powerful card with both NBA Playoff games. one has 3 Tremendous long term systems, the other has 34-0 and 21-0 Statistical indicators. In Bases its a 90% Totals system leading the card. Jump on now and put this award winning data on your side. For the free play. Take Cleveland. RV
The Mariners took Game 1 of this series versus the Rangers in Texas last night, and they look good in Game 2 with Texas sending a struggling pitcher to the mound. Seattle should be primed for a big day at the plate against a pitcher they had their way with just over a week ago.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Ross Detwiler will be on the mound for the home team, and he's still looking for his first "W" of 2015. Detwiler (0-2, 10.95 ERA) was roughed up badly in just 2.1 innings in loss to Seattle in his latest start. He surrendered five runs on seven hits, including three home runs in that game. The Mariners will counter with veteran left-hander J.A. Happ, who's been sharp in all three of his starts this season.
2. Nelson Cruz - He leads the major leagues in both home runs and RBIs, and he's 2-for-2 lifetime versus Detwiler, with both of those hits leaving the ballpark.
3. X-Factor - The Rangers rank dead last in the major leagues with a batting average of .211.
Selection: This is a play on the Seattle Mariners
I'm recommending a play on the Indians on Tuesday. Jeremy Guthrie has allowed 11 runs in 18 innings and in his last start he issued six walks in five innings in a 3-0 loss against Minnesota. Cleveland hitters are batting .355 with a .607 slugging percentage vs Guthrie, who is 1-3 with a 6.17 ERA the last three years against the Indians. Trevor Bauer has given up just two runs in 19 innings and struck out 26 batters. The Indians have dismal numbers against left-handers but they're 10th in the major leagues with a .716 OPS against righties. Bauer missed his start on Saturday due to food poisoning but should be ready to go tonight. The Tribe enter on a 5-1 run when Bauer is listed as a favorite and I'm recommending a play on Cleveland on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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Play on Game #929 Houston Astros w/ Hernandez (10:10 PM EST)
I like Houston tonight. I know I faded them last night as the line was too good to pass up. I did not want to make it sound like the Astros were a slouch though. This is a team that has made progress with their pitching and with their bats. The Astros are #1 in the AL with 45 runs scored over the last 7 days, and 3rd in SLG% at .452. They are ranked #2 in the AL for the season with a team 3.22 ERA. They are ranked 2nd the in the AL with the fewest walks, and are ranked 2nd in the AL with 12 quality starts. I think that could be the difference in this game as the Padres pitchers are just walking too many batters as they are tied for 2nd in the NL with the most issued walks. Another thing is that the Padres have given up 17 stolen bases which is the 2nd most in the NL and this plays right into the Astros game.
Hernandez takes the rubber tonight for Houston and while he is 0-2 in 3 starts this season, he does boast a 1.13 WHIP. He has given up 3ER in his last 2 starts and his still forcing a lot of groundball outs. I like a groundball pitcher, especially in a pitcher's ball park like Petco Park. Opponents are only hitting .215 vs. him through his first three starts. I have to think he limits the Padres to 3 runs or fewer tonight and we will count on the offense and the bullpen to do the rest. And I will also note the Astros come into this game with the better bullpen as well with only a 0.87 WHIP on the season while the Padres bullpen has a 4.07 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP
The Padres will have Ross on the mound and he has a 1.68 WHIP through 4 starts this season. The Padres are 0-2 in his last 2 starts and Ross has now walked at least 3 batters in every start this season. He has yet to make it past the 6th inning, and left handed batters are getting the best of him. Ross has really gotten lucky holding opponents to a .179 average with runners in scoring position. I think this is more luck than anything and that this will average out. Tonight could be the night where he is not as lucky.
The Astros are a team built for speed. They have 20 stolen bases on the season with their 3 leaders in OBP accounting for 14 of the stolen bases. I think we see a Houston team that gets base hits, steals some bases, gets walks from Ross, and they manufacture enough runs to win this game.
After last night's win, the Astros are now 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog and are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right hander. The Padres have now lost 5 of their last 6 after the bullpen pissed on their self last night. They are also 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15. Let's make a play tonight on the Houston Astros as a nice underdog.
After last night's win with Portland in the NBA, Brandon is now hitting on 71% of his NBA Premiums this month (20-8 ATS) and has been killing it in the Playoffs. Tonight, Brandon's 10* NBA Playoffs TOTALS GAME of the YEAR (#2) is locked and loaded. Brandon gave out a WINNER with his 1st Total's plays in the Spurs/Clippers series and he has another BIG WINNER tonight. Act Now-Win Now!
Free Pick on Mariners -
Seattle took the series opener 3-1 behind a dominant start from Taijuan Walker on Monday and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a victory tonight. The Mariners will sent out J.A. Happ, who has quietly got off to an impressive start to the 2015 season. Happ has a 2.61 ERA and 1.065 WHIP over 3 starts. He's yet to allow more than 2 earned runs in a single start, while also throw 6+ innings in each outing.
Hard to not like Seattle's chances here considering the Rangers will be countering with the struggling Ross Detwiler. Texas has lost all 3 of Detwiler's starts and not all that surprising considering he's got a 10.95 ERA and 2.514 WHIP. He's allowed at least 5 earned runs in all 3 starts and is averaging just 4 1/3 innings per start. His inability to work deep into games is important to note, as Texas has a team bullpen ERA of 4.32 and WHIP of 1.440.
Rangers are 9-27 in their last 36 after scoring an allowing 3 runs or less in their previous game, 8-21 in their last 29 when listed as a home dog of +100 to +125, 2-6 in their last 8 against a left-handed starter and 1-5 in their last 6 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Texas is 20-9 in their last 29 when listed as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-1 in their last 5 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take Seattle!
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Philadelphia will play in St. Louis on Tuesday night. Severino Gonzalez will start for the Phillies. Gonzalez has a 3.57 ERA in three Triple-A starts this season. The righty has allowed a bunch of hits over his last two seasons in the minors. In 30 starts in AA and AAA, Gonzalez has given up a whopping 189 hits. The Cardinals are 11-4 against right-handed starters this season, so they will hit Gonzalez hard in this game.
St. Louis’ Michael Wacha is a perfect 3-0 with a strong 1.33 ERA and a terrific 0.94 WHIP in three starts this season. Wacha allowed just 3 runs and 15 hits in two wins over the Reds and a win over the Nationals. The Phillies’ offense is struggling mightily as they’ve scored just 22 runs over their last eight games. Philadelphia isn't hitting the ball well at all right now, and we expect Wacha to shut them down in this game. We’ll recommend taking St. Louis minus the runs over Philadelphia in this game on Tuesday night.
Tuesday Free Play from Doc's Sports Take #903 New York Mets over Miami Marlins (Tuesday, 7:10pm EST) The Mets aren't going to continue winning 75% of their games, but this is a good team. The lineup has some holes (especially with the current injury situation), but New York has a terrific defense, a solid bullpen and they do a lot of the little things that winning teams do. Rafael Montero makes his first start of the season after working in the pen. He has electric stuff and can make hitters look foolish in the box. The big question with him is his control and whether he can keep it together for five or six innings. Against some teams it would be tough, but Miami is a free swinging team that leads the National League in strikeouts. That bodes well for Montero and I think he'll put up a good performance. The Marlins go with David Phelps and he hasn't been very good overall despite a 3.55 ERA. The Mets are the better team and we'll take the underdog price.
OAKLAND/LAA OVER the total of 7
I am mentioning this move becasue there has been much early action pushing the number to 7-1/2. At 7 we have an obvious escape route. Overall the series has shot OVER 5-of-6, the runs accrued were 2, 11, 15, 9, 9 and 9 = 55 averages to be slighly over 9 a game. That type swing always gets our attention...Further, the series has gone OVER at a 18-7-1 clip in Oakland. Plus the A's have gone HIGH 10-1 L11 at home and 7-0 OVER in game one of a series. Not discounting the Angels big bats who have tipped OVER with a 4-0 streak vs. a hurler with a WHIP of 1.15 or less and 9-1 OVER w/Weaver hitting the bump. Although current reality may cause some questions, must back series STRONG tendencies at this time...Good Luck!
MONSTER 5* MLB BEST TUESDAY