10* NCAAB FREE PICK (UCLA -8)
I'll take my chances here with the Bruins covering the 8-point spread at home against Cal. I think a lot of people see this line and just assume UCLA is being overvalued and the value here is with the Golden Bears. As big a brand as UCLA is, the books know the betting public wants nothing to do with backing this team. I mean they have lost 6 of their last 7, have just two covers since the beginning of December and just lost back-to-back games at home by double-digits.
Why on earth would this team be laying near double-digits here? I could be completely wrong on this one, but I think the books are tipping their hand and really begging for the public to take Cal (which they are at a near 70% clip) when they are confident UCLA will win by 10 or more.
No question the Bruins haven't been playing well, but as bad as they have been, the Golden Bears have been even worse away from home. Cal is 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS at home this season, yet are 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS on the road. Cal's two road games in Pac-12 play have resulted in a 32-point loss at USC and a 16-point setback at Stanford (biggest rival). They also lost by 19 at Santa Clara and by 8 at San Francisco in their two other true road games.
Coming off 3 straight losses, you have to believe that if there was a game UCLA was going to show up and play well, this would be it. This is a team that went on the road and beat Washington, so it's not like they don't have talent. If they can just have a decent day offensively they should roll, as Call is by far the worst team offensively in the Pac-12 and their defense is giving up 75.7 ppg on the road. Give me UCLA -8!
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