Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: South Florida -14.5
The South Florida Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season covering the spread by a combined 36 points in those three games. That includes a 74-61 win over Utah State as 2-point home favorites last time out.
I like the fact that the Bulls have played a very tough schedule that ranks 47th in the country up to this point. They have faced five teams that rank in the Top 61 at Kenpom already. They take a big step down in class here against Charleston (184th).
This will be just the 2nd true road game of the season for the Cougars. They lost 90-75 at Liberty as 10.5-point dogs in their first. They also lost by 11 to Yale on a neutral and by 23 at home to Belmont against the three best teams they have faced this season alongside Liberty. They lost by 9 at home to Drake as well. I think this will be their toughest test of the season to this point.
Charleston ranks 275th in effective FG percentage on offense and 276th on defense. They are also 248th in adjusted defensive efficiency. South Florida is an elite offensive team that has scored at least 95 points in six of its nine games this season. They have great balance on offense with five starters who all average at least 12.1 points per game and they push their advantage by ranking 18th in adjusted tempo. More possessions means a better chance for the Bulls to pull away in this one. Bet South Florida Wednesday.
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