Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Butler +15
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the UConn Huskies tonight after six straight victories. They are coming off wins over Texas by 8 at home and Florida by 4 on a neutral. They also beat Kansas by 5 and Illinois by 13 during this stretch. I have to think they are a little gassed after this stretch with a lot of travel involved as well.
Butler has been flying under the radar this season going 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS. The losses came by 2 at SMU as 7.5-point dogs and at home to Boise State by 9. They have wins over Virginia and South Carolina on neutrals, as well as a home victory over Providence. They rank 39th in adjusted offense and 25th in 3-point percentage as an elite shooting team.
It's going to be tough for UConn to get margin with the style they play. The Huskies rank 322nd in adjusted tempo, so there will be fewer possessions and fewer opportunities for them to pull away.
We have seen that play out in recent meetings between Butler and UConn despite the Bulldogs not being very good the past few seasons. Each of the last four meetings were decided by 9 points or fewer, and the Bulldogs are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. They have what it takes to keep this one close again as this is Thad Matta's best team since returning here. Bet Butler Tuesday.
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