Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Chicago Bears -7.5
Note: My favorite way to play the Bears is in a 6-point teaser at -1.5 with the Patriots +7.5 or better at -125 or better. Currently widely available at the time of this writing on Friday.
My lone concern with the Bears is this is a sandwich spot in between the loss to Green Bay last week and with the Packers on deck next week. However, they trail the Packers by 0.5 games in the division now, so if they lose and the Packers win in Denver next week's game won't be for first place. So they have to be motivated and focused to handle their business first, and I think they will be this week.
The Bears have gotten healthier the last couple weeks on defense and have proven what they are capable of when that's the case. Two weeks ago they pulled the 24-15 upset in Philadelphia as 7-point dogs. They dominated that game with 425 total yards while outgaining the Eagles by 108 yards. They rushed for 281 yards on a very good Philadelphia defense.
The Bears were nearly as impressive in defeat last week losing 28-21 in Green Bay with a chance to win the game late before a INT in the end zone. They were likely going for 2 and the win had they scored. They were only outgained by 22 yards by the Packers, who I believe to be a Top 5 team in the NFL right now.
Leading receiver Rome Odunze (44 receptions, 661 yards, 6 TD) sat out the Green Bay game with a foot injury. He is expected back this week. The Bears would be at full strength on offense if he returns as they are now one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. They have three LB's back from injury that they didn't have earlier this season in TJ Edwards, Noah Sewell and Ruben Hyppolite II. They have CB's Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson back from injury now, and CJ Gardner-Johnson has been a great addition. The only starter they are missing on defense is CB Kyler Gordon.
As much as I like the Bears right now due to their improved health, this play is more of a fade of the Cleveland Browns than anything. Shedeur Sanders won his first start in Las Vegas against the hapless Raiders. But their last two games were very concerning, and it's not exactly his fault, it's just that everyone around him is going down. It's like he's being set up to fail.
The Browns lost 26-8 to the 49ers at home two weeks ago and were upset 31-29 by the Titans as 3.5-point home favorites last week. Now they must hit the road where they are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season while getting outscored by 12.3 points per game even when you factor in that 14-point win in Vegas.
The injury report is brutal for the Browns, especially on offense. They will be down at least three starters on the offensive line in RT Jack Conklin, RG Wyatt Teller and C Ethan Pocic. LG Joel Bitonio is questionable, and LT Dawand Jones is on IR. So they would be down the five starters on the O-Line they expected to have at the beginning of the season if Bitonio cannot go.
TE David Njoku suffered an injury last week that will keep him out this week. WR Cedric Tillman and WR Malachi Corley are questionable, while backup RB Dylan Sampson is out. Defensively, the Browns haven't been the same since DT Maliek Collins went on IR. They are much more susceptible to the run without him, as evidenced by allowing 184 rushing yards to the Titans last week. DT Adin Huntington and CB Denzel Ward are out, and DT Mason Graham is questionable as well. They have one of the worst injury reports in the NFL going into this week. Bet the Bears Sunday.
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