Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Orioles/Marlins OVER 8.5
The Miami Marlins are 105-72 OVER in all home games over the last three seasons. The Orioles are 14-1-1 OVER in their last 16 games overall finishing with 8 or more combined runs in all 16 games, and 9 or more in 14 of them. This total of 8.5 is too short for a game involving the Orioles right now.
The Orioles won 9-7 over the Marlins in Game 1 for 16 combined runs and 7-4 over Miami in Game 2 for 11 combined runs. The Orioles and Marlins have combined for at least 9 runs in 10 of their last 13 meetings. It should be more of the same today, and the Marlins should actually do the heavy lifting this time around.
Cade Povich is 7-18 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 38 starts and three relief appearances in his career in the big leagues. He is 1-1 with a 4.41 ERA in 16 1/3 innings this season. He is backed by a poor, tired Baltimore bullpen that has posted a 4.89 ERA this season.
Max Meyer is 8-11 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 32 career starts in the big leagues. Meyer has been much better this season with a 2.68 ERA in seven starts, but he won't be able to sustain this level. He faces a red hot Orioles lineup tonight that should do enough damage against him to cash this OVER 8.5 ticket. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
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