Free Pick on Kansas State +
I'm recommending grabbing the points with Kansas State in their Sweet 16 matchup with Kentucky. I think the perception here is that Kansas State doesn't belong, as they caught a huge break with UMBC's upset of No. 1 overall seed Virginia in the opening round. There's no denying that was a big break for K-State, but it doesn't mean they can't hang around and ultimately beat Kentucky.
Kentucky also caught a big break, as Buffalo's first round upset kept them from a showdown with a very good Arizona team in the Round of 32. Kentucky ended up beating the Bulls by 20 (95-75), but that was a much closer game than the final score indicated. Kentucky had just a 5-point lead with a little over 8 minutes to play, before going on a ridiculous 23-8 run to end the game.
Something else I think that's worth bringing up is Kentucky shot 56.3% from the field and were 7 of 15 (47%) from behind the arc. Keep in mind this is a team that failed to make a single 3-pointer in their first round game against Davidson. Diallo and Gilgeous-Alexander combined to go 19 of 24 (79%) from the field, after going a mere 8 for 17 (47%) against Davidson.
Chances are there's going to be some regression offensively for Kentucky, especially given how good K-State is on the defensive side of the ball. After holding a dynamic Creighton offense to just 33.8% shooting in their first game, Kansas State limited UMBC to just 29.8% shooting. While the offense hasn't been anything special, they are expected to get back leading scorer Dean Wade, who has yet to play in the tournament. I think he gives them just enough punch offensively to cover and potentially win this game.Take Kansas State!
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