Luck Factor quantifies how much a team’s results have been inflated or deflated by randomness rather than repeatable skill. It isolates outcomes driven by volatile, unpredictable events—turnovers, tipped passes, fumble recoveries, missed kicks, late-game variance—by comparing expected results (derived from play-by-play efficiency and situation-neutral metrics) to actual wins and losses. The goal is to strip out what teams can’t control and identify where regression is likely.
In application, we focus on the Luck Factor gap, calculated from actual wins versus analytically expected wins. If one team has three more wins than its underlying performance supports (i.e., +3 luck) and the opponent has three fewer wins than expected (–3 luck), the resulting luck gap is 6.
That differential matters because markets tend to price records, not causes. Large positive gaps flag teams that are often overvalued, while large negative gaps identify teams that are undervalued and “due” as variance normalizes.
Denver has 1.3 more wins than they earned with OKC with 2.2 fewer, a Luck Gap of 3.5 saying OKC is undervalued.
Large away favorites that don’t have a bad delta points allowed is 1368-1066-47. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total.
Big favorites versus opponent fat and happy off a win is 564-395-20. When the team we are betting on is also angry off a win, it’s 60.5% and 15.5 ROI. Fade big dogs with great records is 755-562-34 for +136.80 units and nice 9.4 ROI.
Our contrarian indexes, with worldwide online and brick and mortar sportsbooks, the other has to do with super-square outlaw money, has this as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide. In particular, public dogs generally die.
Winsanity rolls on.
Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy just posted a 7–1 night, improving to 322-254 overall, +$4,427 at $100 units.
College basketball continues to dominate at 113-75 (60%), +$3,018. Today, 4 more winners, led by the Summit League Game of the Year. 7 NBA led by 3 Wise Guy bets!
The NBA stays scorching at 65%.
No gimmicks. No volatility chasing.
Just proven edges, disciplined execution, and results that keep stacking across every sport.