Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy's Picks & Predictions

My selection is on Vegas over Anaheim at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday.

All credit to Anaheim as they've made a series of this as it's all tied up at two games apiece ahead of Game 5 in Las Vegas on Tuesday. With that being said, I do think the Golden Knights are capable of reaching another gear, as we saw in a critical Game 3 when they skated to a 6-2 victory in Anaheim. Back on home ice, I look for the Knights to hold serve on Tuesday, even if they are forced to go without captain Mark Stone once again. Note that Vegas has suffered consecutive losses just once since March 30th, going 13-5 overall in its last 18 games. The Ducks on the other hand have just one winning streak to their credit dating back to March 28th, going 8-12 over their last 20 contests. Additionally, Anaheim is just 21-25 on the road this season, where it has been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals. Vegas is just 23-22 on home ice but has outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.5 goals at T-Mobile Arena. Take Vegas (8*).

Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We've seen this total bump up half a run since opening, largely due to the weather forecast, and it's the right move in my opinion. The starting pitching matchup will feature Eury Perez for the Marlins and Bailey Ober for the Twins. Perez has really labored through his last few outings, allowing 11 earned runs over his last 15 1/3 innings of work. For his career, he's been a much better pitcher at home than on the road. In away starts, Perez owns a 5.17 ERA and 1.28 WHIP and a 2.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Compare that to his home numbers - a 2.78 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 3.5 K:BB. He has limited current Twins hitters to just two hits in 21 collective at-bats but those sort of numbers aren't all that concerning given the small sample size. Only Josh Bell has seen Perez more than three times. It's a similar story for Twins starter Ober. He has limited current Marlins hitters to three hits in only 13 at-bats and no Miami hitter has seen him more than three times. Of note, two of Miami's key hitters in Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez are 3-for-5 off of the veteran right-hander. Ober hasn't experienced any sort of advantage pitching at home compared to on the road over the course of his career, despite his home starts coming at pitcher-friendly Target Field. Ober allowed five earned runs in only five innings last time out and has been slightly worse than his 4.19 ERA indicates this season with a 4.33 FIP. While he's allowing fewer hits and home runs per nine innings compared to last season, his walks are way up and his strikeouts are down. I do think there's trouble brewing when it comes to Ober and the Marlins are well-positioned to take advantage as they rank eighth in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. While both bullpens figure to have 'all hands on deck' following an off day, neither relief corps has inspired confidence this season. The Marlins 'pen owns a 5.26 ERA and 1.66 WHIP with only three saves converted and four blown on the road while the Twins' has posted a 5.35 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with five saves converted along with five blown at home. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

The Wings are coming off a stunning 'upset' win over Caitlin Clark and the Fever on Saturday in Indiana. Optimism is high in Dallas this season as the Wings have a good mix of experience and youthful talent, led by sophomore Paige Bueckers. I do still think there are going to be bumps in the road for this Wings squad, however, and they draw a tough home-opener against Atlanta on Tuesday. The Dream won but failed to cover in their season-opener in Minnesota. Atlanta had to grind out that victory as it couldn't find its shooting legs, connecting on just 31-of-73 (42.5%) of its field goal attempts. I do think it can get on track offensively here, noting that Dallas played matador-like defense in its opener, allowing Indiana to connect on a whopping 40-of-77 (51.9%) field goal attempts. The Wings quite simply shot the lights out themselves in that game as they actually spotted the Fever 11 more field goal attempts, but won on the strength of a blistering 59.1% shooting effort. Look for regression from Dallas on Tuesday. Take Atlanta (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Montreal at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We're starting to see some 6.5's pop up in advance of this pivotal Game 4 matchup between the Sabres and Canadiens on Tuesday. Depending on your number, the 'over' has gone either 3-0 or 2-0-1 so far in this series. Of note, the Sabres have seen more than three consecutive games go 'over' the total just once dating all the way back to November 17th and that came during a seven-game 'over' streak back in January. The Habs, meanwhile, while known for their offensive prowess, have recorded more than three 'overs' in a row only once since November 28th. It may go against conventional wisdom but Montreal has actually posted a slightly lower scoring average at home compared to on the road this season. It's a similar story for Buffalo playing on the road. Despite the high-scoring start to this series, Buffalo has played to an average total of 5.8 goals in these playoffs, while Montreal's postseason contests have totalled 5.1 goals on average. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Buffalo over Montreal at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

The Canadiens have taken consecutive games to secure control of this series, up 2-1 heading into Game 4 on Tuesday. This isn't a 'must-win' for the Sabres but it's close as they can ill afford to dig themselves a 3-1 hole against a team as good as the Canadiens. The good news is, Buffalo is still a solid 27-18 on the road this season, where it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Buffalo has dropped more than two games in a row just once dating back to December 9th. The Canadiens current two-game winning streak marks their longest such streak of the playoffs to date. They've notched more than two straight victories just once since March 14th, that coming during an extended eight-game winning streak that stretched from March 21st to April 4th. I certainly feel that the Sabres are a better team than they've shown over the last two games, and look for them to rebound in enemy territory on Tuesday. Take Buffalo (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and San Antonio at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 5 on Tuesday. We've now seen three straight games go 'over' the total in this series. That's notable as the Timberwolves have posted more than three straight 'over' results just once going all the way back to December 6th, that coming during a four-game streak from January 29th to February 4th. It's not all that different of a story for the Spurs. They've seen more than three consecutive games go 'over' the total only once since February 19th and twice going all the way back to November 14th. The oddsmakers have kept the totals relatively steady throughout this series despite the recent run of 'overs' and it's the right move in my opinion. Take the under (10*).