Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy's Picks & Predictions

Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas Tech plus the points over Kansas State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Kansas State is coming off a massive upset win over Oklahoma last week but I expect the Wildcats to have their hands full with Texas Tech as they return to Manhattan this Saturday. In that victory, the Wildcats scored three touchdowns in the game's first 24 minutes but then stalled until QB Adrian Martinez put the team on his back with a pair of fourth quarter touchdown runs. By all accounts, it was a career game for Martinez, the type of performance that he'll have a difficult time replicating this week. Lost in the victory was the fact that the Kansas State defense yielded two touchdowns in around five minutes on two different occasions in that contest. Keep in mind, this is a Wildcats squad that is just one game removed from losing outright by a 17-10 score at home against Tulane. Yes, there was also a 40-12 rout of Missouri earlier in the season but even in that game we saw the Wildcats offense stall for an extended stretch, held out of the end zone from 13 minutes remaining in the second quarter until 13 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Texas Tech picked up a much-needed rebound victory over Texas last Saturday, successfully bouncing back from a 27-14 loss on the road against a terrific N.C. State team the week previous. It's worth noting that the Red Raiders allowed just two offensive touchdowns in that loss to the Wolfpack. Earlier, in a wild 33-30 overtime win over Houston, Texas Tech allowed only one offensive touchdown in regulation time and that didn't come until nearly two minutes into the third quarter. Of course, the Red Raiders offense is fine. They scored touchdowns in all four quarters against a pretty good Texas defense last week. QB Donovan Smith got a little turnover-happy in those aforementioned games against Houston and N.C. State but has already thrown for 1,100+ yards and nine touchdowns while also adding three rushing scores. Take Texas Tech (10*).

My selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Texas A&M at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Texas A&M goes from being the hunters to the hunted this week after 'upsetting' then-10th ranked Arkansas by a 23-21 score at AT&T Stadium last week. Here, it's Mississippi State that will be looking to break back into the Top 25 as it hosts the Aggies in Starkville. I like the Bulldogs chances of delivering a convincing victory. Texas A&M has come up with consecutive much-needed victories over Miami and Arkansas after its stunning loss at home against Appalachian State back on September 10th. I will note that the Aggies appeared on their way to another loss against Arkansas last week as the Hogs were at A&M's three-yard line late in the first half looking to jump ahead 21-7 before fumbling with A&M returning that fumble for a 97-yard touchdown. That obviously turned the tide in that contest. The Aggies made the switch to Max Johnson at quarterback prior to the win over Miami two weeks ago. The fact is, Johnson has done little other than 'manage' the last two games, completing only 21-of-41 passes for 291 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Here, he'll likely do a whole lot more to match Bulldogs QB Will Rogers, who just tossed six touchdown passes in last week's rout of Bowling Green. Of course public sentiment is still rather low on the Bulldogs after their nationally-televised 31-16 loss to LSU two weeks ago. While the second half against the Tigers didn't go Mississippi State's way, I've been impressed by its other 14 quarters of football played so far this season. While last week's win over Bowling Green was expected, the fact that the Bulldogs put up 31 first half points and ultimately scored offensive touchdowns in all four quarters was encouraging and the perfect springboard heading into this critical matchup. Take Mississippi State (8*).

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between California and Washington State at 5:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams were involved in wild, high-scoring Pac-12 affairs last week. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday in Pullman, however. California put up 49 points in an eventual rout of Arizona last week. Keep in mind, this is the same Bears squad that took nearly a quarter-and-a-half to reach the end zone against a 1-3 FCS squad in UC-Davis back in Week 1. The same team that could muster only two touchdowns against what has proven to be a beatable Notre Dame defense two weeks ago. Here, Cal will be facing a Washington State squad that will be in a foul mood off last week's 44-41 home loss against Oregon. While the Cougars did put up 41 points in that contest, they actually scored only one offensive touchdown in the game's first 40 minutes. Both the Cougars and Bears can play some defense. Cal had given up a grand total of 51 points through its first three games prior to last week's high-scoring win. Even though it allowed 31 points against Arizona, it actually only allowed one touchdown in the game's final 40 minutes after the Wildcats got off to a quick start. Washington State had yielded only 38 points over its first three contests, including an impressive 17-14 upset win over Wisconsin at Camp-Randall (we won with the Cougars in that game). Last year's matchup between these two teams totalled just 27 points in a 15-point Washington State victory. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair this time around. Take the under.

My selection is on San Jose State minus the points over Wyoming at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

I can't help but feel that this is a 'anything you can do, I can do better' situation favoring San Jose State. The Spartans are off to a modest 2-1 start but there's no shame in their lone defeat as it came on the road against Auburn, by only eight points. Last week, we saw San Jose State follow up its bye week with a lopsided 34-6 win over Western Michigan. In that game, we saw the Spartans offense finally get loose, scoring three offensive touchdowns in a 19-minute stretch at one point. Going back over its last two games, San Jose State has allowed just three touchdowns. This is a talented, experienced defense that should eat against a beatable Wyoming offensive line and a shaky starting quarterback in Andrew Peasley. Once BYU got rolling, Wyoming simply had no answers defensively last week, at one point allowing three touchdowns in a 14-minute stretch bridging the second and third quarters. Credit the Cowboys for prevailing by a 17-14 score against Air Force two weeks ago (we won with Wyoming in that game) but it's generally been an inconsistent start to the season on both sides of the football. Remember, back in Week 1 we saw Wyoming fail to reach the end zone while also allowing five offensive touchdown scores against a lukewarm Illinois squad. You could chalk that up to rust but the next week, the Cowboys gave up four touchdowns over a 24-minute period against Tulsa. There are some good pieces in place for Craig Bohl's Cowboys (as I noted in my play supporting them two weeks ago) but it's still likely to be a long season. Noting that San Jose State took last year's meeting by a 27-21 score, we'll go back to the well with the Spartans here. Take San Jose State (8*).

My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Ole Miss at 12 noon et on Saturday.

This is one of the better games on Saturday's college football slate and I really like the way it sets up for the underdog Wildcats. Kentucky enters this game with an identical 4-0 record to that of Ole Miss. While it hasn't been quite as flashy, the Wildcats offense has delivered nonetheless and I expect it to again in this spot. While Kentucky won by 'only' eight points as a near four touchdown favorite against Northern Illinois last week, I didn't come away overly concerned as I'm actually higher than most on the Huskies this year. Kentucky allowed a pair of first half touchdowns in that game but then held the Huskies out of the end zone until the game's final three minutes, when it was already comfortably in front by 14 points. Going back three games, the Wildcats went on the road and impressively defeated Florida by a 26-16 score (we won with the 'under' in that game). They didn't give up a touchdown until the final six minutes of the first half in that contest and after that didn't allow another offensive score of any kind the rest of the way. Then there's the Kentucky offense. It scored a touchdown in all four quarters in last week's win over NIU. Two games back the Wildcats scored four offensive touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch in the first half against then-undefeated FCS squad Youngstown State. Ole Miss rushed out to five first half touchdowns last week against Tulsa. It's worth noting, however, that the Rebels didn't score another point from there, despite Tulsa closing the gap to a couple of scores less than five minutes into the third quarter. We've seen inconsistent stretches like that from the Rebels at times this season, partially due to game script but also in part as a result of QB Jaxson Dart still figuring things out. He's completed just 51-of-82 passes, throwing for 200+ yards only once while tossing five touchdowns to go along with two interceptions. This will clearly be his toughest test to date. Last year's matchup was a barn-burner with Ole Miss prevailing by a 42-41 score. I expect this one to go down to the wire as well. Take Kentucky (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Army minus the points over Georgia State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Poor tackling has been Georgia State's calling card on the way to an 0-4 record this seaosn. That doesn't bode well as the Panthers head to West Point to take on Army and its triple-option offense on Saturday. In last week's loss against Coastal Carolina, Georgia State allowed three touchdowns in the game's first 14 minutes, including two in the first five minutes on its way to a 41-24 loss. Even when the Chanticleers were simply trying to pick up a few first downs and run out the clock late, the Panthers gave up another touchdown (we unfortunately lost the 'under' as a result). The week previous, Georgia State allowed five offensive touchdowns in a 42-41 loss to Charlotte. Meanwhile, the Panthers offense has looked good for stretches but hasn't shown nearly enough consistency. Case in point, back in Week 2, when they had a shot at upsetting North Carolina, they went scoreless over the game's final 17 minutes, allowing a pair of Tar Heels touchdowns to lose 35-28. They scored a pair of first half touchdowns against Coastal Carolina last week but their offense was held out of the end zone for the entire second half. Army entered the season with sky-high hopes but things haven't gone as planned as it is off to a 1-2 start. With that said, the Black Knights did finally get loose for a 49-10 rout of a quality FCS opponent in Villanova last week. In that game, we saw Army score three touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch in the first half, before it added three more offensive touchdowns in the second half. There was no shame in Army's two losses this season as they came at the hands of aforementioned Coastal Carolina and UTSA - two teams that will more than likely be Bowl-bound. In those two games, the Black Knights still managed to put up a combined 66 points. Note that these two teams met last season and the result was no contest as Army won by a 43-10 score. The talent gap might just be wider this year but it's certainly not reflected by the pointspread. Take Army (10*).