Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy's Picks & Predictions

My selection is on Texas over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

We'll back the Rangers at a generous price on Monday as they open this A.L. West series in Houston. Jack Leiter is slated to start for Texas. He's been slowly figuring things out, allowing just seven earned runs in 23 2/3 innings of work over his last four starts with the Rangers winning three of those games (he allowed just two earned runs in six innings in a 2-0 loss in Arizona in the lone defeat). Jason Alexanderhas gone undefeated in last eight starts for Houston. He's been fortunate to do so, especially considering how he's pitched here at home. In his five home outings this season he has allowed 15 earned runs in 27 innings of work. Also note that Alexander had been tagged for six home runs across his last four starts prior to his most recent outing. The Rangers figure to hold the bullpen edge in this contest as their relief corps has been lights out lately, logging a 2.05 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last week. Also note that Texas ranks 12th in the majors in weighted on base average and 17th in isolated power over the last week, five places ahead of Houston in both categories over that stretch. Take Texas (8*).

Monday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Monday.

I think this total will prove too high as two slumping offenses go head-to-head in St. Louis on Monday. Zack Littell will take the ball for Cincinnati. He had a recent stretch where he was lit up by the home run ball, yielding seven over a three-start period. He did rebound last time out, however, holding the Padres to just two earned runs on two hits over six innings in a 4-2 road victory. Despite his homer-happy ways, he's limited the damage thanks to a 1.12 WHIP across 29 appearances with the Rays and Reds this season. Matthew Liberatore will counter for the Cardinals. He's just one start removed from holding a good Athletics offense to no runs on four hits over 5 1/3 innings here at home. The left-hander has yielded just four earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work over his last three home outings with those games totalling just six, three and four runs. Take the under.

A.L. East Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Monday.

The Blue Jays have to feel pretty good about themselves after a series sweep of the Orioles over the weekend while the Yankees and Red Sox beat each other up at Fenway Park. Toronto has a good hold on the top of the A.L. East and I look for it to suffer a letdown of sorts in the opener of this series on Monday. We won with the Rays on Saturday before laying off on Sunday. Note that they rank 14th in the majors in weighted on base average and third in isolated power over the last week. Their bullpen has been solid for an extended period with a 3.79 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the last month and a 3.56 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home this season. Contrast that with the Blue Jays 'pen which has logged a 4.66 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road. The starting pitching matchup isn't settled yet, but it sets up as a potential bullpen game for Toronto. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Houston at 7 pm et on Monday.

The Buccaneers looked sharp in their opener, going on the road and handling Atlanta. That type of effort sets a tone, and I think this is a team playing with a chip on its shoulder early in the season. The offense showed balance in Week 1, and there’s room for it to get even better as the year progresses. With some legitimate playmakers, Tampa Bay has the upside to trade punches with almost anyone.

Houston, meanwhile, is being priced more on reputation than reality. The Texans struggled to generate much offensively in their opener against the Rams, and their conservative play-calling didn’t help. More concerning is their offensive line, which continues to spring leaks and puts unnecessary pressure on the backfield. That’s not a recipe for covering spreads against motivated opponents. This looks like a favorable spot for the Bucs to keep their momentum going and potentially leave with another outright win.

Take Tampa Bay plus the points.