Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy's Picks & Predictions

My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Indiana at 12 pm et on Wednesday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold in Indiana on Wednesday afternoon. Golden State show exceptionally well in its 90-81 loss in Atlanta two nights ago. Note that the Valkyries, while giving up 90 points in that contest, continue to play reasonably well defensively. They've limited an incredible 11 straight opponents to fewer than 30 made field goals. On the flip side, we haven't seen they knock down 30+ field goals in consecutive games since June 7th and 9th (they'll be looking to do that here after making good on 30 field goals in Monday's defeat). Indiana has knocked down 31 and 34 field goals in its last two games. The last time it tried to make good on 30+ field goals for a third straight contest it was held to only 23 in an 85-75 home loss to Los Angeles on June 26th. The Fever allowed those same Sparks to connect on 32 field goals in an 89-87 loss on Saturday. Prior to that, the Fever had held its last two foes to just 38 made field goals combined with the 'under' cashing in both of those games. Take the under (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Chicago at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

The Sky dropped their second straight game yesterday, 81-79 on the road against the Mystics, but they remain on a red hot 6-0 ATS run. I look for that streak to end on Wednesday as they host the Wings in a difficult back-to-back situation. Dallas couldn't complete the home-and-home series sweep of Phoenix on Monday, dropping a lopsided 102-72 decision. The Wings are still a terrific 6-3 ATS over their last nine games. While they've won just six games this season, five of those victories have come since June 17th. Here, they'll be looking to avenge a pair of earlier losses against Chicago. Those two defeats came back in May, when the Wings were mired in a 2-5 ATS start to the season. Take Dallas (10*).

My selection is on Arizona over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Padres bounced back from a series-opening loss to record a 1-0 victory last night. Their offense continues to struggle mightily, entering Wednesday's action ranked 27th in weighted on base average and 29th in isolated power over the last week. Dylan Cease gets the start for San Diego on Wednesday. He's having another fine season overall but has struggled lately. Cease has given up seven earned runs on 13 hits including four home runs in just 10 innings of work over his last two starts. He hasn't come close to replicating the numbers he posted during his first season with the Padres last year. Brandon Pfaadt takes the ball for Arizona. He has endured a tough season overall but has shown some signs of life lately. Last time out he gave up four earned runs but only six hits and struck out eight in six innings against the Giants. He hasn't allowed a single home run in his last two starts and that's encouraging as keeping the ball in the park has been an issue this season. The bullpen matchup is more even than you might think with Arizona's relief corps having posted a 2.38 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last week. We'll take our chances with the underdog D'Backs here. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Cincinnati over Miami at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Marlins have taken the first two games of this series and the Reds have now dropped four straight contests but we'll call for a reversal of those trends on Wednesday. Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami. He had a brief resurgence in the early part of June but has since gone back in the tank, allowing 12 earned runs on 15 hits in 12 innings of work over his last two starts. On the season, Alcantara owns a 4.55 FIP and 1.44 WHIP. While the Reds offense has struggled lately, I think they can get to Alcantara here and it's not as if the Marlins have been tearing the cover off the baseball themselves. Cincinnati will send left-hander Andrew Abbott to the mound. He was roughed up in a tough spot in Philadelphia last time out but is still having a career year having logged a 3.60 FIP And 1.09 WHIP. The Reds have won four of his last five and seven of his last nine starts overall. Look for Cincinnati to bounce back in this contest. Take Cincinnati (8*).

Wednesday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and the Athletics at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday.

This total is high but it's high for a reason as the Braves send Bryce Elder to the hill against Mitch Spence of the Athletics. Spence has been fortunate to post a 4.32 FIP and 1.31 WHIP in 28 appearances this season including six starts and I know that's not saying much. He's been wobbling lately, allowing 10 earned runs in just 14 2/3 innings over his last three outings. The Braves were quiet at the plate in last night's blowout loss but do still check in ranked 12th in the majors in isolated power over the last week and hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park figures to be a good fit. Of note, Spence has been tagged for four home runs in his last two starts. Elder continues to get knocked around for Atlanta having logged a 5.51 FIP and 1.52 WHIP in 14 starts this season. Things have gone from bad to worse lately as he's allowed a ridiculous 22 earned runs over his last four starts and five home runs over his last two outings. He'll face an A's offense that ranks tops in the majors in ISO and fourth in weighted on base average over the last week. The concern for the A's is their bullpen as it has struggled to the tune of a 5.50 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season. Take the over.