Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy's Picks & Predictions

My selection is on Central Connecticut State plus the points over Sacred Heart at 7 pm et on Thursday.

We won with Sacred Heart as it outlasted New Hampshire in overtime on Sunday. I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade the Pioneers as they return home to host Central Connecticut State on Thursday. The visiting Blue Devils will play their fourth straight road contest to open the season having gone 1-2 so far. While the Pioneers own the better overall record, the Blue Devils have faced the considerably more difficult schedule. Of note, CCSU has held each of its first three opponents to single-digit makes from beyond the three-point line. SHU has owned a considerable edge in terms of free throw attempts in each of its first three contests, something that we can never truly project but I certainly anticipate that evening out in time. These two teams were involved in a wild, high-scoring overtime affair in last year's meeting with CCSU prevailing 108-106. We'll grab all the points we can get here as I look for the Blue Devils to take this rematch down to the wire at the very least. Take Central Connecticut State (8*).

My selection is on Columbus over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

These two teams appeared headed in opposite directions as the Lightning have won four of their last five games while the Blue Jackets enter on a two-game losing streak. That's certainly been factored into the price, however, with Columbus checking in as a home underdog (at the time of writing). We'll back the Blue Jackets as they look to get back on track following consecutive losses. The Bolts are likely to go with backup goaltender Dennis Hildeby after Andrei Vasilevskiy back-stopped them to an 8-3 rout of the Sabres in Buffalo last night. While neither of Tampa Bay's goaltenders have excelled this season, the veteran Vasilevskiy is obviously the more reliable option. Hildeby is 3-0-1 but has yielded 12 goals in four starts and owns a 2.95 goals against average and .880 save percentage on the season. Of note, Tampa Bay is just 4-6 on the road this season while Columbus is 5-4 on home ice (compared to 2-5 on the road). The Lightning own the better overall record but the Blue Jackets have faced a considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Columbus (8*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Mavericks are coming off a high-scoring game against the Pacers (247 total points) but that doesn't tell the whole story as the pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair. Dallas got off just 83 field goal attempts but knocked down 43 of them. That marked the second straight game the Mavericks shot the lights out after connecting on 48-of-84 two games back against Brooklyn. Of course they'll be taking a considerable step up in class against the Timberwolves. Minnesota is locked in defensively right now having held six of its last seven opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and less than 40 made field goals. Offensively, Minnesota got off to a red hot start to the season but has since cooled, or at least slowed down. The T'Wolves have connected on 41 or fewer field goal attempts in two straight and four of their last five games. While not known for their defensive prowess, the Mavs have held four of their last five foes to 82 or fewer field goal attempts and five of their last seven to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Raptors are at a rest disadvantage to be sure as they played last night while the 76ers were idle following Tuesday's home loss to the Celtics. With that being said, I think Philadelphia will be hard-pressed to put this game away given how these two teams have been playing lately. Toronto has really clamped down defensively, holding three of its last four opponents to fewer than 80 field goal attempts and nine of its last 10 to 82 or fewer. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has connected on fewer than 40 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests. On the flip side, the wheels have come off for the Sixers defensively. They've allowed just four of 12 opponents to knock down 40+ field goals this season but three of those have come in their last three games. Toronto doesn't mind pushing the pace offensively when given the opportunity and Philadelphia has allowed four of its last five foes to hoist up 90+ field goal attempts. Take Toronto (8*).

NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Commanders enter this game on the heels of three straight 'under' results. I look for that streak to end on Thursday as they head to the Meadowlands for a familiar matchup against the Giants. The first meeting between these two teams back on October 11th totalled 54 points and included a wild overtime finish. Of note, that game kicked off a stretch that has seen the Commanders offense regain its footing, averaging 6.2 yards per play or more in three of their last four games. Washington's defense has held up well in its last two games as well, holding the injury-depleted Eagles and uneven Rams to 4.3 and 4.9 yards per play, respectively. Keep in mind, both of those games came at home where Washington has played much better defense this season. In three previous true road games the Commanders have been lit up for 6.4, 6.4 and 6.5 ypp. The Giants have renewed life offensively with QB J.J. McCarthy taking over the offense. He had an injury scare on Sunday but all indications are that he'll be good to go on Thursday. New York did struggle to move the football on Sunday but that was against an Eagles team that has been forced to sell out with its defense to hide a severely limited offense missing so many key contributors. Prior to that, New York had averaged 6.9 and 6.8 ypp in its last two contests. New York's defense has been terrific as a whole this season with rookie standout Arvell Reese playing a big role. It did allow 6.9 ypp in its previous matchup against Washington, however. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels ability to extend plays can put pressure on the Giants weakness, which lies in their secondary. We don't need a track meet to get 'over' this relatively low total. I think a lot of bettors are going to look at both teams low-scoring results on Sunday, combined with this being a fairly ugly Thursday nighter and expect points to come at a premium. We'll go the other way and call for this to be a more entertaining game than expected. Take the over (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 9 pm et on Thursday.

We'll lay the points with Louisiana-Lafayette as both of these teams play on short rest following tight games on Saturday. The Ragin' Cajuns secured a win but non-cover at home against South Alabama. They're now 6-3 on the season and have faced a more difficult schedule (by most metrics) than 2-7 Louisiana-Monroe. However, ULL does check in off back-to-back ATS defeats which helps temper this line. The Warhawks have staged outright double-digit underdog wins in two of their last three games, both on the road against Troy and most recently Arkansas State on Saturday. I think the opposition has been caught overlooking ULM as this is a team that started the campaign with six straight losses (1-5 ATS). I don't think that will be a problem for the Ragin' Cajuns after they narrowly avoided the upset against South Alabama on Saturday. Note that ULL has gained 6.9 yards per play or more in five of nine games this season. ULM gained 5.7 yards per play on Saturday but that was the first time in four contests that they gained more than 4.6. They've eclipsed 6.0 ypp just twice this season, once in a 38-35 'upset' loss against FCS squad Southeast Louisiana and the other in a 17-point loss at South Alabama. I think it's only a matter of time before the Ragin' Cajuns pull away in this one. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*).