Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy's Picks & Predictions

American League Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore over Seattle at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday.

The Orioles suffered another tough loss in extra innings last night - their fourth straight setback. I do think we'll see them bounce back on Wednesday as they send Brandon Young to the mound against George Kirby of the Mariners. First, I'll point out that Seattle's bullpen has been overworked lately and checks in sporting a 5.23 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with two saves converted and two blown over the last week. While the O's 'pen has been anything but lights out, it has generally fared better at the back end, converting 15 saves while blowing seven on the season including an 8:3 split here at home. For whatever reason, Mariners starter Kirby has really had a tough time this season and particularly of late. He checks in having allowed 17 earned runs over his last four outings, covering a span of 21 innings. Kirby currently owns a career-worst 1.28 WHIP and his strikeout numbers are down considerably - a career low 7.4 K's per nine innings on the season. While current O's hitters haven't had a ton of success against him, they have seen him plenty and are arguably facing him at his worst right now. Of note, the O's check in ranked top-three in the majors in xwOBA over the last week - nine spots ahead of the Mariners in that category. Brandon Young has been quietly effective for Baltimore. He's 4-1 with a 4.28 FIP and 1.34 WHIP on the season but has allowed just five earned runs in 19 2/3 innings of work over his last three starts. In fact, the O's are 8-1 in his nine starts this season. Take Baltimore (10*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Cubs have now dropped consecutive games after losing the opener of this series last night. I like their chances of bouncing back on Wednesday. Shota Imanaga will take the ball for Chicago. I do think he's too good of a pitcher to continue struggling the way he has. He has been lit up for 12 home runs over his last four starts, yielding 26 earned runs over that stretch. He has faced a difficult slate of opponents over that stretch - not that it's any excuse - in the Brewers, Astros, Cardinals and Athletics, not to mention some adverse weather conditions at Wrigley Field (three of those four outings came at home). On the season, Imanaga still owns a solid 1.08 WHIP and I think he can limit the damage here, noting the Rockies rank 22nd in the majors in xwOBA over the last week and 27th in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Colorado will give another start to Michael Lorenzen. He has quite simply been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, logging a 5.11 FIP and a 2.00 WHIP. To the surprise of no one, the decision to join the Rockies and make the majority of his starts at Coors Field has not been a good one. Current Cubs hitters are a solid 10-for-37 (.270) with a .891 OPS against the right-hander with five of those 10 hits going for extra bases. Both bullpens are in similar shape entering this contest as both had a day off on Monday before opening this series last night. We'll certainly give the edge to the Chicago 'pen as it owns a solid 3.51 ERA And 1.23 WHIP on the season compared to Colorado's relief corps, which has posted a 5.23 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (9*).

My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Connecticut at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Connecticut is coming off consecutive ATS victories but has lost three straight games and owns only two victories on the season. I don't think this line is unreasonable at all as the Tempo are set up in a smash spot having played just once in the last week (that being an 85-68 rout of Chicago on Sunday). Toronto has certainly exceeded expectations so far in its inaugural season, going 6-5 SU and ATS. This will be its first ever meeting with a lame duck Connecticut franchise that is off to Houston for a fresh start next season. The Sun were fortunate to stick around for a cover despite fading late against New York on Monday, thanks in large part to one of their best shooting performances of the season. I don't expect them to repeat that effort here. Toronto has held two of its last three opponents to fewer than 30 made field goals. The Sun have allowed their last three foes to knock down 32, 31 and 29 field goals which doesn't seem all bad until you realize they yielded just 68, 67 and 61 field goal attempts in those three contests. Take Toronto (8*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

There was a lot of distraction swirling around the Knicks in advance of Game 3 of this series on Monday. Most went into that game thinking New York was going to push San Antonio to the brink of elimination but of course we thought otherwise, backing the Spurs in their much-needed 115-111 victory. I do think we'll see the Knicks settle in a little better in Game 4 on Wednesday after so much bottled up anticipation was let out by the city as a whole in Game 3. Of course, a big difference in Game 3 was the foul shot discrepancy with the Spurs getting off 32 attempts from the stripe compared to the Knicks 22. That's obviously not something we can project here but I would at least expect a few more calls to go New York's way. The Knicks have been able to get their looks in this series, hoisting up 94, 89 and 88 field goal attempts through three games. The shots haven't necessarily been falling but I do think the door is open for a bounce-back performance here. The fact that New York is coming off a loss is notable as it has endured just three different losing streaks dating back to January 21st. And of course the straight-up winner has now gone an incredible 27-0 ATS in San Antonio's last 27 contests. Take New York (9*).