Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy's Picks & Predictions

Tuesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Cleveland over Cincinnati at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday.

I like the bounce-back spot for the Guardians here as they're back home after a five-game divisional road trip that saw them drop three of five games against the White Sox and Twins. They'll be happy to get out of the A.L. Central and face the lowly Reds on Tuesday, with Cincinnati coming off consecutive losses in which it plated a grand total of one run. The Reds check in a woeful 3-17 when coming off consecutive losses this season. They'll be facing a Guardians club that has been lights out in the current price range over the last two seasons, going 19-3 when priced between a -150 and -200 favorite, which is the case at the time of writing, outscoring opponents by a wide average margin of 2.7 runs in that situation. Cleveland starter Zach Plesac's numbers this season aren't anything to write home about but I like the fact that he'll be pitching on extended rest while Reds starter Connor Overton pitches on just four days' rest after lasting a season-high 6 1/3 innings in his most recent outing. Take Cleveland.

My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Yankees rolled to another lopsided victory last night - not unexpected as they opened this series against the reeling Orioles. Here, I do like the spot for the O's, however, as they get their third look at Jameson Taillon this season and noting that they've held their own and then some at home this season, going 9-8 while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 runs per game. Interestingly, the Yankees check in just 21-28 when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Also note that the O's fall into a situation where we back a team coming off three consecutive games with five or less hits but with a bullpen that has recorded a collective WHIP of less than 1.00 over their last five games. That situation has cashed at an impressive 37-14 clip over the last five seasons and is already 3-0 this year. While tonight's starter for Baltimore, Spenser Watkins, doesn't exactly instill a great deal of confidence, the O's have managed to win two of his three home starts this season with the lone loss coming by a single run. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Oakland over Minnesota at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Twins got the better of the A's for the fourth consecutive time this season last night. All four games have been close, and I look for Oakland to finally answer back on Tuesday night. While the Twins check in winners of two games in a row, they've now scored three runs or less in six of their last seven contests. They'll likely need all the runs they can get tonight as starter Dylan Bundy checks in having allowed 15 earned runs over just 9 2/3 innings of work in his last two outings. He's had a tough time against the A's lately as well, allowing 14 earned runs in just nine innings against them across three starts last season. Here, we'll play against the Twins noting that road teams that start a pitcher that averages less than five innings per start and allowed five or more runs in each of his last two starts have gone a miserable 13-52 over the last five seasons. A's starter James Kaprielian has strung together consecutive quality outings, allowing just three earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. He deserved a better fate in a 1-0 loss against the Twins earlier this season, allowing just one earned run in 5 2/3 innings in Minnesota. We'll confidently back the A's noting that home teams coming off a game in which they recorded four or less hits but have a bullpen with a collective ERA of 2.50 or lower over their last 10 games have gone 94-42 over the last five season including a 7-2 mark already this year. Take Oakland (8*).

Tuesday WNBA Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Indiana at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We suffered a painful loss with the 'under' in the first half of this two-game set on Sunday, foiled by a combined 49 free throw attempts by the two teams. The pace certainly wasn't there to warrant an 'over' result but that's sometimes just the way it goes. Here, we'll look for a return to 'normal' with a low-scoring affair between these two offensively-challenged squads. Note that Atlanta has yet to attempt 70 or more field goals in a game this season. It hasn't knocked down more than 28 field goals in a game. While Indiana has been pushing the pace a little more, it has topped out at 31 made field goals in a game - despite getting off 72+ FG attempts in three of five games. We've seen Atlanta play tough defense all season - the Dream limited the Fever to just 28-of-68 shooting in Sunday's victory. Here, we can expect Atlanta to focus on doing a better job of guarding the perimeter, however, after Indiana knocked down 11 three-pointers on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 83-59 with the Fever playing at home off a game that totalled 155+ points, as is the case here. Take the under.

Tuesday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Florida at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We're dealing with a very high total for Game 1 of this second round series and probably for good reason when you consider the last two meetings between these two teams produced a whopping 24 goals! With that being said, I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday. The Lightning were probably pretty content with how Game 7 played out in Toronto on Saturday as they wore out the high-flying Leafs in a 2-1 victory. You can be sure they'll be looking to employ a similar gameplan against the explosive Panthers here, especially if Brayden Point is unable to go due to the leg injury he suffered on Saturday (he's currently listed as doubtful for Tuesday's game). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 7-2 with the Panthers seeking revenge for a loss by 2+ goals against an opponent this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 6.1 goals. Take the under.

My selection is on Florida over Tampa Bay at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

The Lightning rallied to win consecutive games after falling behind 3-2 in the series against the Leafs last round, adding to Toronto's long history of playoff collapses. Now Tampa makes the short trip to Sunrise to face the in-state rival Panthers and I look for it to fall short in Game 1. Florida hasn't just been good at home this season, it has been dominant, going 36-8 while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 goals. The fact that Tampa took the most recent meeting between these two teams by an 8-4 score back in late April actually serves Florida well, noting that it has gone 15-3 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss by 2+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. The Panthers also own an incredible 15-2 record when playing at home off a victory this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.6 goals in that situation. Take Florida (8*).

My selection is on Miami minus the points over Boston at 8:45 pm et on Tuesday.

I think there was a somewhat common line of thinking that whichever team prevailed in the Bucks vs. Celtics series would likely go on to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. I don't feel the Heat are deserving of that disrespect - after all, we're talking about the number-one seed in the East and a team that has for the most part cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Here, we're able to back Miami at a very short price despite the fact that it is home and rested while the Celtics are just one day removed from Game 7 of a grueling series against the defending champion Bucks. Note that while the Heat have shown they can prevail in any type of environment, winning high-scoring and low-scoring affairs, the Celtics are actually 0-2 SU and ATS when being held to 101 points or less in these playoffs. Miami has given up fewer than 100 points in seven of 11 games in these playoffs. While I'm not saying this one will turn into a slugfest, I do like the Heat's depth and flexibility regardless the type of contest that plays out on Tuesday. Note that Miami had at least five players score in double-figures in consecutive victories to close out the Sixers last round - a much different story than the Celtics last opponent, the Bucks, who obviously relied heavily on Giannis to do it all. Take Miami (9*).

My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Rockies have now dropped back-to-back and seven of their last eight games overall. That includes four losses against the Giants after dropping last night's series-opener by a 7-6 score. They're still 12-8 at home this season and I like the way they match up in a quick rematch between Alex Cobb and Chad Kuhl on Tuesday. Cobb got the better of the Rockies last week but that was in San Francisco. He's made just one road start this season, allowing three earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings in an eventual 5-4 loss to the Mets. Rockies starter Chad Kuhl had been pitching well prior to getting lit up by the Giants last week. He's made two home starts here at Coors Field, posting a 2.03 ERA and 0.60 WHIP in 13 1/3 innings of work. The Rockies have now lost Kuhl's last two starts. It's worth noting that Kuhl hasn't failed to guide his team to a victory in more than two straight starts since May 31st to June 12th last year. Since that three-start winless stretch he's made 13 more starts. The Rockies have now dropped 11 straight meetings with the Giants. Enough is enough. Look for them to get back in the win column here. Take Colorado (8*).

A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Rangers got the better of the Angeles in the opener of this series last night but I look for Los Angeles to answer back on Tuesday. Reid Detmers makes his return to the mound after tossing a no-hitter for the Angels in his last start. While he struggled in his first outing against the Rangers this season, allowing five earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings, he's looked like a different pitcher since, allowing only six earned runs in four starts, covering a span of 23 2/3 innings with the Angels winning three of those four games. While most will be expecting Detmers to suffer a letdown of sorts here, I believe that is more likely to happen to Rangers starter Taylor Hearn, who tossed five shutout innings last time out but will now pitch on just four days' rest. He has already made five home appearances this season and hasn't fared particularly well, recording a 3.97 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. This will be Los Angeles' fourth time facing Hearn since last September, having scored 10 runs off of him in 16 previous innings. As far as the bullpens go, the Angels relief corps has been lights out on the road this season, posting a 2.30 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown. The Rangers 'pen has recorded a 4.04 ERA and 1.27 WHIP here at home. Take Los Angeles (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday.

As a perennial title contender, the Lynx certainly aren't accustomed to long losing streaks. They check into this game off four consecutive losses to open the season though. You would have to go all the way back to their season-opener against Seattle to find the last time they posted an 'over' result. I look for that to change here. Minnesota has seemingly gotten stronger with each passing game from an offensive standpoint and could potentially get Kayla McBride back in the lineup to give it an additional boost here. The Lynx have scored 74+ points in three of their four games this season and got to 78 points last time out despite getting off only 59 field goal attempts. We can anticipate the pace ticking up in this one as Los Angeles has yielded its opponents 70 (aided by overtime), 78, 69 and 70 field goal attempts in its first four games this season. The Sparks have been fortunate that their opponents haven't done a good job of taking advantage of all of those scoring opportunities - I think that's had more to do with shaky early season shooting rather than anything L.A. is doing defensively. Playing their fourth straight road game to open the campaign, it wasn't all that surprising to see the Sparks struggle offensively in Connecticut on Saturday. Off that 60-point performance I look for them to bounce back in their home-opener noting that Lynx opponents have been 'filling it up', making good on 35, 29, 31 and 28 field goals through four games. Take the over (10*).

Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Of course much will be made of the elite nature of both of these defenses heading into this Eastern Conference Finals showdown. Both defenses are certainly deserving of respect, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone a little too far by setting this total in the low-200's - in fact, I think this will likely be the lowest posted total we see in this series. While the Celtics defense obviously held up well against the Bucks last round, some of that had to do with Milwaukee missing its best option outside of Giannis on offense in Khris Middleton. Without him the Bucks struggled to find consistent offensive production, despite being afforded plenty of opportunities, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in five of seven games in the series. If the Celtics allow the Heat to get up into that range in terms of field goal attempts, things could get ugly. You see the Heat have been filling boxscores for weeks, having knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 of their last 16 games overall. In the final two games against Philadelphia last round they had seven and five players score in double-figures. The question becomes whether Boston can do its part offensively to help this total along. I believe the answer is yes, as evidenced by the very short pointspread we're looking at in Game 1. The C's check in having scored 100+ points in 15 of their last 16 games. Despite the pace not always being there, they've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 of their last 16 games. They certainly would have got there in Game 7 against the Bucks were it not for the lopsided nature of that contest, giving them the ability to 'call off the dogs' late. Take the over (10*).