Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy's Picks & Predictions

Monday NHL Free play. My selection is on New York over Calgary at 7:35 pm et on Monday.

While the Flames did head into the All-Star break on the heels of a win in Seattle, there's no denying they've been one of the league's biggest disappointments this season, sitting at 24-26 on the campaign. I still believe head coach Darryl Sutter's days behind the Calgary bench are numbered, with this likely being a 'make-or-break' eastern road trip. The All-Star festivities in Florida only served to illustrate just what the Flames gave up in the offseason, dealing Matthew Tkachuk away to the Panthers. But I digress. Here, I like the Rangers to come out of the break strong. They're a team I'll be looking to support, particularly at home where I anticipate some positive regression in the second half of the season. Note that New York has gone an incredible 31-13 on home ice in the second half of the season over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.3 goals on average. Meanwhile, Calgary is just 1-5 when playing on the road after winning three of its last four contests this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals in that situation. Take New York.

Monday NBA Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday.

The Blazers are on an incredible shooting tear right now but I question how long they can keep it up. They've knocked down 40 or more field goals in seven straight games and the 'over' has cashed in each of their last two contests. Note, however, you would have to go back seven games to find the last time they got off 90 or more field goal attempts. In other words, the pace hasn't necessarily been there. Over Portland's last three games it has held opponents to just 87, 84 and 80 field goal attempts and given it doesn't have any sort of rest advantage here (it will be playing its sixth game in the last 10 days in four different cities) I suspect it will look to slow the tempo whenever it can. The Bucks knocked down 46-of-88 field goal attempts last time out against Miami. They've actually been held under 40 made field goals in three of their last eight games so the consistency hasn't necessarily been there. After allowing their last four opponents to really push the pace (and find plenty of offensive success doing so), I do think we'll see Mike Budenholzer's squad tighten things up defensively to open this three-game western road trip. Take the under.

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Bulls are in uncharted territory right now having reeled off four straight home wins (their longest previous home win streak this season lasted only three games). I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown on Monday, however, as they host the lowly Spurs, who haven't tasted victory since January 17th. This one might not be as straight-forward as it looks on paper for Chicago, noting that San Antonio has actually taken two of three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 129-124 victory as a five-point underdog back in late October. While the Spurs enter this game riding an eight-game losing streak (seven straight losses ATS), they have shown signs of life lately, knocking down 48, 42, 48 and 52 field goals over their last four games. In their last five contests playing with at least a day's rest on the road, they've lost by three in New York, eight and six (in a two-game set) in Memphis, by 20 in Portland and by nine in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). So it's not as if they've been getting their doors blown off away from home. Defensively, San Antonio is arguably the league's worst team and it certainly doesn't head to Chicago in solid form in that regard. With that being said, the Bulls are certainly poised for some regression offensively. Chicago has actually gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games, but managed to knock down 41 or more of those shots on three occasions over that stretch. I don't think the numbers add up to extended pointspread success. Here, we'll note that the Bulls are a long-term 112-154 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins. Take San Antonio (10*).

Monday NBA Free play. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

We got the results we wanted over the weekend to set up this play on the Wizards on Monday night. Cleveland checks in off a lopsided victory over the Pacers in Indiana yesterday. So here the Cavs are in a back-to-back spot in the early stages of a stretch that will see them play five games in seven days (in four different cities). 'Load management' remains a hot-button issue in the NBA and this would certainly appear to be a spot where the Cavs might elect to 'leave some in the tank' for the week ahead. The Wizards blew a big lead in an eventual two-point loss in Brooklyn on Saturday. That was their second straight defeat, and second straight game in which they coughed up a substantial lead in the second half. I'm confident they'll show a little more resolve back at home on Monday, noting they're 57-35 ATS when coming off a road loss by three points or less going all the way back to 1996. While the Cavs managed to win and cover on the road yesterday, they remain a woeful 39-61 ATS when playing away from home over the last 2+ seasons. Look for the revenge-minded Wizards (they lost the first meeting this season by 10 points in Cleveland) to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Washington.

My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Miami at 7 pm et on Monday.

When these two teams last met on January 21st, they combined to score just 134 points. We're dealing with a lower posted total for this rematch and I believe it will prove too low. The pace was certainly there for a much higher-scoring affair in the first meeting. Duke got off 62 field goal attempts while Miami countered with 63. Both teams ended up shooting poorly with the Blue Devils knocking down 25 field goals and the Hurricanes making good on only 22 in a narrow two-point defeat. It's worth noting that Miami has been more efficient offensively while also playing at a slightly faster pace at home compared to on the road this season. The Canes enter this contest on an offensive tear having knocked down 31, 26, 35 and 26 field goals over their last four games, despite getting off 58 or fewer field goal attempts in three of those tilts. Duke has had little success (or interest) in slowing its opponents' pace lately, allowing 63 or more FG attempts in three of its last five games. Meanwhile, Miami's opponents have been afforded plenty of good looks, knocking down 25 or more field goals in an incredible 10 straight games. Take the over (8*).

Horizon League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Monday.

The first meeting between these two in-state rivals totalled 148 points back in December. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around as a result, but I believe it's warranted. Green Bay enters this contest off four straight 'under' results. The Phoenix have shot poorly over that stretch - in fact, they've been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in four straight games, their longest such streak of the season. I do think the pace alone should get them over the hump here, however, noting that Wisconsin-Milwaukee ranks 17th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Panthers have allowed 16 consecutive opponents to knock down more than 20 field goals. Their last game snapped a stretch of nine straight contests in which they allowed 62 or more field goal attempts. Keep in mind, the pitiful Phoenix made good on 23 field goals and scored 67 points in the first meeting between these teams this season. The Panthers were fortunate to secure a 72-69 win over IUPUI last time out. They got off a whopping 69 FG attempts in that contest but could only hit 26 of them. I certainly anticipate them improving on that shooting percentage here, noting that Green Bay ranks a miserable 361st in the nation (that's third-to-last) in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Take the over (10*).