Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy's Picks & Predictions

National League Game of the Week. My selection is on Arizona over New York at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

After dropping the opener of this series on Tuesday, I look for the Diamondbacks to bounce back behind ace Corbin Burnes on Wednesday night. While Arizona has suffered back-to-back losses with Burnes on the mound, he’s pitched better than the results might suggest. He’s allowed three earned runs combined over his last two starts, working into the sixth inning in each and throwing just 89 pitches in his latest outing, leaving him fully rested for this assignment.

Burnes should benefit from facing a Mets team that, despite its hot run — including eight straight home wins — ranks only 16th in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitching. Current Mets hitters have had some prior success against Burnes, but with his current form and ability to work deep into games, he’s more than capable of keeping them in check. Also note that the Arizona bullpen that ranks among the top-five in the majors in xFIP and is well-rested with only long reliever Ryne Nelson having worked over the last two days (Arizona was idle on Monday).

On the flip side, New York’s starting situation for Wednesday remains unclear, with indications pointing to either a bullpen game or a spot starter. While the Mets’ relief corps has been solid overall, it recently took a hit with the potential season-ending injury to A.J. Minter. That could leave them stretched a bit thin if asked to cover most of the game.

Given the pitching edge and a favorable rest setup, I’ll back Burnes and the Diamondbacks to even the series.

Take Arizona. Projected score: Diamondbacks 5, Mets 3.

Wednesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll take a shot with the Angels as they aim to avoid a two-game sweep at the hands of the Mariners on Wednesday afternoon. Tyler Anderson will toe the rubber for Los Angeles, and he's been one of the few bright spots in the Angels rotation this season. The Halos have won all five of his starts, and he enters this one in fine form, having allowed just three earned runs on 16 baserunners over 17 2/3 innings in his last three outings. While Anderson isn’t overpowering, he’s been effective at keeping hitters off balance, and Mariners bats have had limited success against him historically, batting .258 with a .755 OPS in 62 combined at-bats.

Emerson Hancock will start for Seattle. While he remains a promising young arm, he hasn’t found his footing at the big-league level. In 18 career starts, he owns a 5.25 FIP and 1.39 WHIP, and so far this season he’s been roughed up to the tune of a 7.71 ERA and 1.71 WHIP across three outings. With the Mariners’ offense often slow to get going and their bullpen edge not overly significant (Seattle ranks 14th in xFIP while L.A. ranks 21st), this spot sets up well for a bounce-back Angels win as they look to generate momentum ahead of a home series.

Take Los Angeles. Projected score: Angels 4, Mariners 3.

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the under between Florida and Tampa Bay at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

After back-to-back 'over' results in this series, I'm expecting a much tighter, more defensive contest in Game 5 as Tampa Bay faces elimination on home ice. The Lightning have thrived defensively at Amalie Arena all season, allowing only 2.3 goals per game. That should be a key factor as they look to extend their season and avoid trading goals in a high-variance style that favors Florida.

While Tampa Bay's offense has been potent at home (3.8 goals per game), the Panthers have shown they can smother even the best attacks, limiting the Bolts to two goals or fewer in three of the first four games. Florida’s defensive commitment should only intensify as they attempt to close out the series on the road.

With both teams likely to tighten up and minimize mistakes in a pivotal elimination scenario, I anticipate a slower-paced, hard-checking game with limited quality scoring chances. That should be enough to keep this one comfortably under the total.

Take the under. Projected score: Panthers 3, Lightning 2.

My selection is on Winnipeg over St. Louis at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

The Blues were dominant on home ice in Games 3 and 4, but now they face a very different challenge in Game 5 as the series shifts back to Winnipeg. The Jets have been a force at home all season, posting a stellar 32-7-4 record while outscoring opponents by an average of 1.4 goals per game. That level of home dominance, combined with the added urgency of coming off back-to-back blowout losses, sets the stage for a strong response on Wednesday.

While St. Louis deserves credit for evening the series, it has struggled to replicate that level of play on the road, going just 20-18-5 away from home while averaging a modest 2.9 goals per game. The step up in competition — and environment — will be significant as the Blues take on a motivated Jets squad looking to avoid falling behind in the series.

It's also worth noting that Winnipeg has shown resilience all season long, with this current two-game skid marking its first string of consecutive losses in nearly two months. Given the Jets' reliable bounce-back track record and strong home-ice edge, I expect them to respond in kind and reassert control of the series.

Take Winnipeg. Projected score: Jets 3, Blues 2.