Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy's Picks & Predictions

Sunday NHL Free play. My selection is on Ottawa +1.5 goals over Dallas at 6:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Senators are 3-2 on their current road trip but come off a 4-3 loss in St. Louis on Friday. Note that Ottawa has reeled off an incredible 13 straight wins when factoring in the +1.5 goal-line. While we're being asked to lay a steep price to grab the insurance goal here, I believe it's warranted. Dallas comes off three straight wins including a 4-3 victory over Utah here at home on Friday. The Stars are 7-4-1 on home ice this season but have only outscored the opposition by an average of 0.2 goals in those contests. This is a 'revenge' spot for the Sens after they dropped a 3-2 decision at home against Dallas back on November 11th. Take Ottawa +1.5 goals.

My selection is on Cal State-Bakersfield plus the points over Fresno State at 6 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Roadrunners on Sunday. Cal State-Bakersfield is 3-4 SU and 2-4 ATS in lined games to start the season. Of note, the Roadrunners have faced a slightly more difficult schedule than Fresno State, which checks in 6-2 SU and 5-2 ATS in lined contests. The Bulldogs enter this game on the heels of four straight wins both SU and ATS but they're laying their highest pointspread of the season to date on Sunday. Fresno State has been led by Clemson transfer Jake Heidbreder. The Bulldogs have only four returning players from a season ago with Zaon Collins the only notable contributor. CSUB does have plenty of returning talent from last season but has been led by Alabama A&M transfer, Dailin Smith. The Roadrunners have already faced the likes of California, Ole Miss and Florida State this season - all on the road. I consider them to be a battle-tested team as we head into December and on a three-game ATS slide, I think they're being spotted too many points as a result of recency bias here. Take Cal State-Bakersfield (8*).

My selection is on The Citadel plus the points over Presbyterian at 4 pm et on Sunday.

The Citadel has gotten off to a disappointing 2-5 SU and 0-5 ATS in lined contests start this season. There's been a number of reasons for that but perhaps the biggest one has been its inability to contain opposing offenses, with four of its seven opponents to date shooting 50% or better from the field. That's not what you would expect from a team that boasts plenty of returning talent. Enter Presbyterian. The Blue Hose have made good on 25 or fewer field goals in all seven of their games against Division-I opponents this season. Even that game where they knocked down 25 field goals came in a 20-point loss (and non-cover) against South Carolina. While Presbyterian has faced a more difficult schedule than The Citadel, it hasn't been overwhelmingly so. The Blue Hose play at a slow pace, limiting seven of their nine opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts so far this season. I think that type of game suits The Citadel just fine, especially considering how it has performed defensively. In a game where we're grabbing this many points, we generally prefer a lower-scoring affair. Take The Citadel (8*).

My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

I think the knee-jerk reaction is probably to fade the Spurs off their big 'upset' win in Denver on Friday. However, San Antonio is playing as well as anyone right now, having won five of its last six games including two in a row on this road trip. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves barely escaped with a four-point win over the Celtics last night and that only served to snap a three-game losing streak. There's certainly been value backing the Spurs without Victor Wembanyama and I believe that continues to be the case here. Take San Antonio (8*).

AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts have cooled off, dropping two of their last three games including a hard-fought overtime battle in Kansas City last Sunday. I think the door is open for the Texans to make a move in the AFC South and I like the way this matchup sets up for them on Sunday in Indianapolis. We won with Houston last week as it stunned the Bills in a Thursday night home game. While the Texans will hit the road this week, they'll once again benefit from playing indoors, which does give their offense a boost in my opinion. QB C.J. Stroud is set to return and while not a massive difference-maker, he is certainly an upgrade over Davis Mills, who did perform admirably in Stroud's absence. Defensively, the Texans are elite and seemingly getting stronger with each passing week. They'll be ready to tee off on Colts QB Daniel Jones on Sunday as he's looked more and more like the Jones of old lately. While Jonathan Taylor can run on anyone, I think the Colts will have a difficult time ever pulling away in this contest. Take Houston (10*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Denver at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The fact that this game wasn't 'flexed' out of primetime is interesting. Perhaps NBC executives know something most don't and expect the Commanders to give the Broncos a run. I do like Washington's chances of giving Denver some trouble in this one. Note that Denver hasn't met a tight game it doesn't like this season with seven of its 11 contests having been decided by four points or less. The Broncos haven't lost since Week 3 in Los Angeles (against the Chargers). The Commanders haven't won a game since Week 5 (also against the Chargers). This will likely be Washington QB Marcus Mariota's last stand before Jayden Daniels makes his expected return next week. I don't think Mariota will be asked to do much against a vaunted Broncos defense on Sunday. Instead, look for Washington to put this one in the hands of its defense. The Commanders have brought the heat against opposing quarterbacks this season and I do think there's a path for them to knock Broncos QB Bo Nix off course in this matchup. After getting thoroughly embarrassed i its last two home games against Seattle and Detroit, look for Washington to put forth a better showing here. Take Washington (8*). 

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over San Francisco at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Browns are playing with renewed confidence with QB Shedeur Sanders taking over the offense. His presence gives the Browns fan base some reason for optimism at the very least, even if it does end up being short-lived. Here, I think Cleveland is capable of keeping San Francisco within arm's reach for four quarters. The 49ers got the win they needed against the Panthers in primetime on Monday. Carolina put forth a rather curious gameplan and ultimately came up well short. The Niners defense remains banged-up while the offense has shown positive signs but is being led by a less-than-100% healthy Brock Purdy. The Browns elite defense will undoubtedly be eager to attack Purdy aggressively in the Dawg Pound on Sunday. Allowing less than 4.0 yards per rush, Cleveland should be able to effectively erase San Francisco's offensive focal point in RB Christian McCaffrey. Take Cleveland (8*).

NFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams enter this game on three-game SU and ATS slides and while Tampa Bay figures to have the talent edge, not to mention home field advantage, I think Arizona comes away victorious. The Cardinals have run up against a difficult schedule over the last six games, facing the Colts, Packers, Cowboys, Seahawks, 49ers and Jaguars in succession. Forgive them if they looked like they ran out of gas in last Sunday's overtime loss to Jacksonville. Arizona has thrown caution to the wind offensively, turning veteran QB Jacoby Brissett loose and all but abandoning its broken ground attack. Against Tampa Bay's struggling defense, Brissett is set up for success again this week. Offensively, the Buccaneers are in tough. While QB Baker Mayfield and rookie WR Emeka Egbuka will once again be on the field, they're nowhere near 100% healthy. Mayfield took a beating against the Rams in primetime last Sunday, injuring his non-throwing shoulder. The Cards have an underrated defense that has been particularly tough defending the pass. Arizona checks in 4-1 ATS on the road this season while Tampa Bay is 1-3 ATS at home. Take Arizona (10*).

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on New York plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Jets haven't quit on the season and I think they'll see this as a winnable game at home against the banged-up Falcons on Sunday. Atlanta will be without QB Michael Penix and WR Drake London, leaving the offense in the hands of Kirk Cousins with a heavy dose of RB Bijan Robinson surely in the offing. The Falcons defense has been better than expected as a whole this season but hasn't been particularly tough against the run and that opens the door for Gang Green to stay competitive with a run-first approach in this game. RB Breece Hall showed plenty of burst in last week's ATS win in Baltimore. QB Tyrod Taylor will serve as nothing more than a game manager and that's just fine as the last thing New York wants to do is sling it all over the field without WR Garrett Wilson and facing an opportunistic Falcons defense. Take New York.