Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy's Picks & Predictions

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Minnesota at 7 pm et on Sunday.

Friday's matchup between these two teams in Indiana proved to be high-scoring with the Lynx eking out a 95-90 victory but failing to cover the spread. We're working with a higher posted total in Sunday's rematch and I believe it will prove too high. The Fever are a shell of their former selves as they've been ravaged by injuries this season. Yet they enter this contest having knocked down an impressive 33+ field goals in three straight games. I think the potential is there for their offensive production to fall off a cliff on Sunday, however. The Lynx couldn't have been pleased with their defensive effort on Friday. Prior to that game they had held back-to-back opponents to fewer than 30 made field goals. A return home should help their cause on Sunday and I think we see them manage this contest efficiently at both ends of the floor. The Fever know they don't have the personnel to succeed in another track meet. They'll need to 'ugly it up' if they want to stay competitive in this contest. Take the under (10*).

A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New York at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Red Sox have taken the first three games in this series with the Yankees producing just four runs in total across those three contests. Still, New York ranks eighth in the majors in weighted on base average and third in isolated power over the last week. We know the Yankees bats are capable of coming to life and I see this as a terrific breakout spot against Dustin May and the Red Sox pitching staff on Sunday. New York knows it's going to have to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard to salvage the finale of this series. That's because Boston ranks fifth in wOBA and 11th in ISO against left-handed pitching this season and it will face one in Carlos Rodon on Sunday. Rodon will be pitching on short rest (four days) after throwing 102 pitches in six innings against the Rays earlier this week. Note that in two previous outings against the Red Sox this season, Rodon was rocked for eight earned runs in 10 innings of work. He's been on the mound in some high-scoring games lately with three of his four starts in August leading to game totals of 10 runs or more (two of those contests reached 16+ runs). Dustin May will take the ball for Boston. Speaking of high-scoring games, his last five road starts (not including an outing in Boston with the Dodgers) have totalled 15, 15, 9, 15 and 14 runs. While May has pitched reasonably well lately, he faces a Yankees lineup that ranks second in wOBA and best in baseball in ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Finally, we'll note that the Yankees bullpen has really struggled lately, to the tune of a 5.17 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over the last month and a 5.96 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last week. While I do think the Yanks salvage Sunday's series finale, I do feel the Sox can be a thorn in their side once again and turn this into a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the Athletics over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

You would have to go back seven Logan Gilbert starts to find the last time the Mariners won a game by more than a run with the right-hander on the hill. That illustrates just how much of a grind it's been, even with Gilbert pitching well (something he didn't do last time out as he gave up six earned runs in less than three innings). Jacob Lopez has been an incredible find for the Athletics. They've reeled off five straight wins with the left-hander on the mound and he's given up just two earned runs in 30 innings over that stretch. We'll also note that the A's bullpen has been lights out lately, sporting a 2.66 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with seven saves converted and none blown over the last month. The Mariners 'pen has been effective over that stretch as well but has recorded an inflated 6.45 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the last week. While notching back-to-back wins here in Seattle is a difficult task, the price is right to take a flyer on the A's on Sunday. Take the Athletics (8*).

Sunday MLB Free play. My selection is on Miami over Toronto at 1:40 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the Marlins last night as they couldn't deliver in an extra innings loss to the Blue Jays - their second straight defeat to open this series. I do look for Miami to bounce back on Sunday as it turns to Eury Perez against Kevin Gausman of Toronto. Perez has been a little shaky in recent starts but his body of work this season is solid with a 3.73 FIP and 1.01 WHIP in 13 starts. I like the fact that he's pitching on full rest and doing so after throwing just 86 pitches last time out. Toronto has lost three of Gausman's last four starts and he's allowed 10 earned runs in 25 innings of work over that stretch, including four home runs. The Marlins are capable of being a thorn in the Blue Jays side, as we saw in last night's narrow defeat. Look for Miami to prevail and avoid the sweep at an underdog price on Sunday. Take Miami.

Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Tampa Bay at 12:10 pm et on Sunday.

We'll call for a rare low-scoring affair at Steinbrenner Field on Sunday afternoon. Matthew Liberatore will take the ball for the Cardinals against a Rays lineup that has been a disappointment this season. Tampa Bay enters this game ranked 15th in the majors in weighted on base average and 22nd in isolated power over the last week. Liberatore has been quietly effective for the Cards, allowing three earned runs or less in five straight and nine of his last 10 starts overall. Ryan Pepiot will counter for Tampa Bay. He has struggled lately but hasn't had the benefit of pitching at home since back on July 20th, making each of his last five starts on the road. While normally pitching at Steinbrenner Field isn't an advantage, Pepiot has posted better numbers at home compared to on the road this season. It's not as if St. Louis has been tearing the cover off the baseball, ranking 20th in wOBA and 29th in ISO over the last week. Take the under (10*).