Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy's Picks & Predictions

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New Mexico State plus the points over Tulsa at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Tulsa has to be feeling pretty good about itself after reeling off six straight wins. The Golden Hurricane are off to a blistering 6-1-1 ATS start in lined contests but I think they'll have their hands full against New Mexico State on Saturday. The Aggies have lost two straight games following a 6-0 start to the campaign. Of note, they've faced a more difficult schedule than the Golden Hurricane by most metrics. I do think New Mexico State can take this game down to the wire at the very least, noting that it has held all eight of its opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals this season. On the flip side, the Aggies had connected on 28 or more field goals in three of their last four games prior to an off shooting night in an 'upset' defeat on the road against Abilene Christian last time out. They've had ample time to chew on that defeat, and consecutive losses, having not played since last Saturday. Take New Mexico State (10*).

My selection is on Delaware State plus the points over Longwood at 3 pm et on Saturday.

While Longwood owns the superior overall record in this matchup this season, Delaware State has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. I also think the two teams are heading in opposite directions in some sense with Delaware State having just snapped its four-game slide with an 'upset' win over Delaware, marking its second straight ATS victory. The Hornets have done a good job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing fewer than 60 field goal attempts in all but one of their 11 contests (that came in a game where they were +35 point underdogs against Miami). We've seen them get their own opportunities lately, hoisting up 72, 63, 63 and 58 field goal attempts over their last four contests and finally the shots started falling in that victory over Delaware last time out. They've knocked down 24 or more field goals in just six of 11 games this season but five of those results came in their last seven contests. Longwood figures to have a difficult time winning by margin, noting that it has proven vulnerable defensively this season, allowing six of its last nine opponents to connect on 27 or more field goals. On the flip side, the Lancers have made good on 24 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games. It's been a struggle just producing shot-volume whether by design or otherwise, hoisting up 55 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. This game has the potential to be closer than expected. Take Delaware State (8*).

My selection is on Army plus the points over Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Army checked in ranked in the Top-25 and fresh off an AAC title but was stunned 31-13 against Navy last December. This time around, it's Navy coming off the banner regular season having gone 9-2 SU but just 4-7 ATS. We'll fade the Midshipmen as they enter this contest off consecutive 'upset' victories over South Florida and Memphis. Army turned things around about a month into the season, coinciding with the switch to Cale Hellums in place of Dewayne Coleman at quarterback. Save for a blowout loss at East Carolina in a game that was played on just four days rest in late September, the Black Knights were in virtually every game this season. They're not likely to beat themselves having turned the football over just three times in their last eight games (after committing six turnovers in their first three contests). Keep in mind, while the final score showed a blowout in this matchup last year, the Black Knights were within striking distance nearly midway into the fourth quarter (trailing 21-13 at that point). QB Bryson Daily had an uncharacteristically off day, throwing three interceptions in that game. I don't think Hellums will be asked to do too much in this one. Note that he showed his mettle in a narrow loss (but cover) on the road against a good Tulane team that would go on to win the AAC title. I think we'll see Army rise to the occasion and take Navy down to the wire at the very least on Saturday. Take Army (8*).