Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy's Picks & Predictions

My selection is on Cal State-Bakersfield plus the points over North Dakota State at 9:30 pm et on Thursday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Cal State-Bakersfield on Thursday as it looks to snap its two-game slide at home against North Dakota State. Both teams have proven vulnerable defensively, but it's the Bison that are laying a considerable number of points, on the road no less, in this matchup. NDSU checks in having allowed seven of its last nine opponents to knock down at least 26 field goals. That's despite five of those nine opponents getting off fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Bakersfield will be happy to be back home after four straight road games. Of note, it has gone 3-0 on its home court, albeit against lesser opposition than it will face on Thursday. The Roadrunners do already have an 'upset' win under their belt this season, defeating Fresno State as a double-digit underdog on November 30th. Bakersfield has at the very least been consistent offensively, making good on 21 or more field goals in nine straight games despite getting off 58 or fewer field goal attempts in six of those contests. Finally, we'll note that the Roadrunners, while sporting an inferior record to that of the Bison, have faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Cal State-Bakersfield (8*).

TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

I think the potential is there for this to turn into a shootout between the Falcons and Buccaneers on Thursday night. Atlanta was a virtual no-show in a difficult matchup against Seattle on Sunday. The presence of QB Kirk Cousins has obviously derailed the Falcons offense but the matchup isn't all bad here as RB Bijan Robinson is set up well to eat not only on the ground but also in the passing game. Likewise for much-maligned TE Kyle Pitts in the passing game as WR Drake London will sit another game. The Bucaneers defense has sagged lately, allowing 24 or more points in four of its last five games and are dealing with multiple key injuries. The Falcons defense has been matador-like over the last month or so, allowing 31, 30, 10, 27 and 37 points over its last five games. It draws a tough matchup here with the Bucs finally getting healthy with Tristan Wirfs, Mike Evans and even Jalen McMillan set to return in what will be his season debut. We've actually cashed tickets fading the Bucs in each of the past two weeks with QB Baker Mayfield drawing difficult matchups. Here, I think we see a bounce-back performance to help this total along. Take the over (10*).

Thursday NHL Free play. My selection is on Montreal over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Penguins punched above their weight class earlier in the season but they've gradually fallen back into the pack in recent weeks, going 6-10 over their last 16 games. It's been a similar story for the Canadiens and like the Penguins, enter this contest on a two-game slide. I do think we'll see Montreal get back on track here, noting that it has gone 3-1 over its last four road games and sports an impressive 8-3-2 mark away from home this season. Home ice advantage hasn't meant much to Pittsburgh as it checks in 5-4-3 as host, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals along the way. I think the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this one. Take Montreal.

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado -1.5 goals over Florida at 9:35 pm et on Thursday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for the Avalanche as they return home off a somewhat disappointing 2-2 road trip that wrapped up with a shootout loss in Nashville on Tuesday. Note that Colorado is 11-0-2 at home this season where it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 2.5 goals. Florida checks in off a win in Utah last night, prevailing 4-3 on a goal late in the third period. The Panthers are still just 5-6 on the road this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in those contests. Florida does enter riding a three-game winning streak but I'll point out that seven of its last eight losses have come by at least two goals. Meanwhile, the Avs have won seven straight home games by two goals or more. Take Colorado -1.5 goals (10*).