Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - The Phillies are at home and off a home loss last night in a game they blew a late lead and lost in extra innings. It was a sloppy ending to an otherwise strong stretch of 3 straight wins over the Mets. Grabbing the Phillies off a loss has been a cash cow this season as the Phillies are 11-1 the last 12 times they have entered a game off a loss. Also, 16 of the last 20 Phillies wins have been by 2 or more runs! So Philadelphia is in a great bounce back spot and also likely to win big. The Nationals come into this game having lost 4 of 5 games and they have scored an average of only 1 run the 4 losses! Washington is hitting only .221 on the road this season which is 2nd to LAST in the NL as only the Marlins are hitting worse. The Phillies are hitting .264 in evening games which is 2nd only to the Dodgers in all of MLB this season! Wheeler gets the start for Philadelphia here and he is coming off a rare tougher start but that was on the road and means bounce back time here! Wheeler has a 1.44 ERA in home games this season and has held opponents to a .167 batting average in his 5 home starts while striking out 44 in 31 innings! The Nationals start Jake Irvin here and he has pitched better of late but he has had some tougher starts against stronger hitting teams. Above, we talked about the Phillies being second to only the Dodgers in team batting average in evening games this season. Well, LA got to Irvin for 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings the last time he faced them. Also, Irvin gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings when the Phillies faced him earlier this season. Irvin was 2-5 with a 5.43 ERA last year in evening action in his rookie season. This year he also has a higher ERA in night games (4.86 ERA) than day games. The Nationals are just 6-11 against teams with a winning record this season. The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball and are in an 11-1 situation. Also, 16 of 22 Nationals losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and laying the 1.5 runs! Lay it for a Top Play!

ASA top play on NY Knicks +6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - We expect this game to go down to the wire and will gladly take the points with the Knicks here. The Knicks (+6) were recently blown out on this court 89-121 in Game 4 so why isn’t the line adjusted slightly higher for this game. New York is the tougher team, they have played in more close games and have a Star in Jalen Brunson who can carry a team. The Pacers don’t have a player like Brunson as Haliburton is still coming into his own. Indiana is 17-16-1 ATS as a home favorite this season or 51.5%. New York is 14-14-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential in those games of minus -2.7PPG. Two key factors in efficiency ratings are rebounding and free throws and the Knicks have dominated those two categories. The Knicks are attempting 24 free throws per game in this series compared to just 16.8 by Indiana. New York is also plus nearly +7 more rebounds per game with nearly 4 of those per game coming offensively. I’m betting the moment is too big for the young Pacers and New York covers this spread.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +1.5 vs Seattle Storm, 9:30 PM ET - These two teams met in Seattle in the season opener for each team and the Lynx came out on top 83-70 as a +7.5-point underdog. We like Minnesota to win again and don’t feel they should be the home dog here. The Lynx played an all-around good game in Seattle with the difference being their defense as they held the Storm to 37% shooting overall and 11% from beyond the arc. Minnesota shot 45% overall and made 7 of 24 3-pointers for 29%. The Storm were the last team in the WNBA in offensive Net rating and last in EFG% at 47.2%. Minnesota was better in terms of ONR last season than the Storm and slightly worse in defensive Net rating. The Lynx were respectable at home last season with a 9-11 SU record compared to the Storm who were 7-13 SU on the road. Seattle’s shooting woes in the first game of the season is a direct correlation to last year’s lack of shooting success as they were last in the league in team FG% at .410. Minnesota has beaten the Storm outright in 4 of the last five meetings overall and also cashed the money in 4 of five. The wrong team is favored here. Take the Lynx!

#201282 ASA PLAY ON Fiorentina PK-130 over Napoli, Friday at 2:45 ET - This one in Italian Serie A. This is a value spot for the home team on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK-130 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Fiorentina but it is nice to have that added value with this line. Fiorentina has been the hotter team of late plus they have the home field edge here plus Napoli is going to be without star striker Viktor Osimhen. That hurts the attacking ability of the visitors in this one. Also, Fiorentina has been hot in Serie A action with a 3-1 last 4 games and only one loss last 5 games. Napoli has just one win last 10 games. Tremendous value with the goal line when you consider these numbers and the fact the fact the road team is without a key player they rely on when it comes to the attack! Take Fiorentina on Friday afternoon.