Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASAwins NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - Memphis is in a scoring drought averaging 106.5ppg over their last ten games. That’s about to change on Thursday night when they face the Kings. The Grizz have faced a brutal stretch of games with 8 of their last ten games coming against some of the league’s best teams. Now they face one of the worst with the Kings ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.233-points per possession.Sacramento is 30th in opponents FG%, 30th in opponents FG’s made, 22nd in 3PT% allowed and give up an average of 124.4ppg (30th). Memphis should get a significant bump in scoring facing this defense that has allowed 122 or more points in 9 of their last ten and 130 or more in 5 of those. The Grizz battled the Spurs late into the game on Tuesday night before falling by double-digits. Scheduling also favors Memphis here with the Kings coming off a game last night in Oklahoma City. Sacto is 4-14 ATS their last 18 when playing the 2nd night of a back to back. The Kings are 1-7 SU on the road this season with a negative average point differential of minus -8.5ppg. Don’t be fooled by the Grizzlies 3-5 SU home record as the losses have come to: OKC, Houston, Detroit, Lakers and Heat who have a combined 58-16 SU record. The home team won all three meetings a year ago and we expect that trend to continue here. Lay it!

#43/44 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6 Goals (-115) - Ottawa at Anaheim, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Anaheim is in a back to back after the 4-3 win over Boston last night.  This will be Petr Mrazek in the crease most likely in this back to back spot.  Mrazek is off of a rare good start as he allowed 14 goals in his first 3 starts this season and we expect his struggles to quickly resume!  The Ducks have played in 20 games already and he has only 4 starts so he is not used often.  We expect the Senators to take advantage.  They are off a shutout loss at home against LA this past weekend and have been waiting all week to get back on the ice and get the bad taste out of their mouth after being blanked on home ice!  Ottawa has played 8 road games this season.  The last two were 3-2 overtime games but this followed the first 6 road games all totaling 7 or more goals and those 6 away games averaged 9 goals!  Off a 1-0 loss, Ottawa's emphasis will be on the offensive end in this one and we expect the Senators to pepper Mrazek with shots on goal.  At the same time, the Senators issue will be in their own end where they have allowed an average of 4 goals in regulation time of their 8 road games!  The Ducks have a showdown with Vegas on deck and these two teams are at the top of the Pacific Division so far this season.  The last time Anaheim had the Golden Knights on deck the game totaled 12 goals.  We expect plenty of scoring in this spot again given the situational aspects with Ducks in B2B and Senators off a 1-0 home shutout loss.  Anaheim and Ottawa both rank in the top half of the league for power play percentage. Both teams and, in particular, the Senators have struggled badly on the penalty kill. Anaheim is bad on the kill and the Sens are even worse! Our computer math model is showing the highest probability as 7 goals in this one with 8 as the 2nd highest probability in simulations. Over is the play Thursday in Anaheim

#112 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans +6 over Buffalo Bills, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Houston is still in desperation mode as they try to get back into the playoffs. They lost their first 3 games but have gone 5-2 since to get back to .500. Their 2 losses during that stretch were by 3 points vs Denver and by 8 points @ Seattle, 2 of the top teams in the NFL and both 1 possession games. To compare lines of those 2 top tier teams, the Texans were +3 @ Seattle and favored by 2.5 vs Denver. Now they are getting nearly a full TD at home vs the Bills? We understand they will be without starting QB Stroud again this week which may move the number a bit, however his back up Davis Mills is one of the better back up QB’s in the league. He’s already led Houston to back to back wins in Stroud’s absence. The Bills are coming off a big home win over Tampa Bay (44-32 final) but they’ve been a bit shaky on the road going 2-2 with losses as a favorite @ Atlanta and @ Miami. They scored only 27 total points in those 2 losses and now they face the top D in the NFL allowing just 258 YPG. Houston’s stop unit ranks in the top 5 in scoring, total defense, rush D, and pass D. They rank #1 in overall defensive EPA and they’ve allowed more than 20 points only twice all season. Huge defensive edge to Houston here which we always like when those teams are home dogs. If we look at overall DVOA (NFL Metric), Buffalo is rated as the 9th best team in the NFL and Houston is 10th. Too many points here.

#744 ASA PLAY ON USC -18.5 over Troy, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Horrible spot here for Troy. They are playing their 4th game in 8 days, all on the west coast. They played Friday @ Loyola Marymount (lost by 11), Sunday @ CSUN (lost by 9), Tuesday @ San Diego State (won by 1 in double OT) and now Thursday @ USC. Not only is that a brutal stretch, their most recent game @ San Diego State Tuesday was a double OT game. Troy doesn’t use their bench often (363rd in bench minutes) so their starters have to be physically and mentally cashed and looking forward to getting home after leaving last Thursday. USC has been off since Friday and they’ve played all home games to date winning by 31, 30, and 20 points. They are in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’ve been great on the offensive glass pulling down over 40% of their misses (22nd nationally) and they should cream Troy in that regard as they have tired legs and are ranked 312th in defensive rebounding. Troy relies heavily on the 3 point shot which could be tough with tired legs and facing a tough USC D that limits their opponents to 25% from deep thus far this season. USC is a fast paced team, averaging 98 PPG, that could run this Troy team into the ground. Let’s lay it.

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 233.5 Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Memphis is in a scoring drought averaging 106.5ppg over their last ten games. That’s about to change on Thursday night when they face the Kings. The Grizz have faced a brutal stretch of games with 8 of their last ten games coming against some of the league’s best teams. Now they face one of the worst with the Kings ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.233-points per possession.Sacramento is 30th in opponents FG%, 30th in opponents FG’s made, 22nd in 3PT% allowed and give up an average of 124.4ppg (30th). Memphis should get a significant bump in scoring facing this defense that has allowed 122 or more points in 9 of their last ten and 130 or more in 5 of those. The Kings will push tempo with the 3rd fastest pace of play in the NBA. Sacramento has capable scorers and shoots well enough at 46.7% overall, and 37.2% from deep (11th). Memphis has also been one of the league's better defenses in past seasons but they’ve slipped to 18th in defensive efficiency this season. The last two meetings between these two teams produced 254 and 271 total points. It’s not too much to ask to get a 240’s final here.

ASAwins NHL play on: Philadelphia Flyers -125 vs. St. Louis Blues - 7PM ET - The Flyers (9-6-3) welcome the struggling Blues (6-9-5) to Wells Fargo Center on Thursday night, and everything points to Philly cashing as -130 home favorites in a bounce-back spot. Scheduling is a massive edge: Philadelphia enters with three full days of rest after a gritty 4-3 win over Columbus, while St. Louis wraps a grueling four-game road trip following an OT loss in Toronto—fatigue could hit hard against the Flyers' high-tempo forecheck. Philly's owned this matchup lately, ripping off three straight wins in the series, including a wild 6-5 shootout thriller on Nov. 14 in St. Louis where they outshot the Blues 31-17 despite the high score. The Flyers' defense has been a brick wall league-wide, allowing just 2.83 goals per game (10th in NHL), compared to Buffalo's leaky 3.84 GA/G (32nd-worst). Goaltending tilts Philly's way too: Samuel Ersson (3-1-2, 3.30 GAA) gets the nod in net, backed by a unit that's eigth-fewest in goals conceded (51 total), while Jordan Binnington (4-5-3, 3.34 GAA, .869 SV%) faces a Flyers attack that's clicking at home (5-2-2). Computer models love the Orange and Black here (projected 4-2 final), and with the Blues ranking 30th in goals allowed, expect Philly to control and convert. NHL teams with 3+ days rest against an opponent on shorter rest hit at a 60% rate in 2024-25. Grab the Flyers ML at -130—puck drop 7 p.m. ET.