Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -115 vs NY Knicks, 7:10pm ET - Instead of laying the 1 or 1.5 points, we will select the money line option here as it is available as low as a -115 price. The Knicks currently sit 3rd in the Eastern Conference, the Hornets are 10th and both are fighting for better seeding. Despite the Knicks having 10 more wins than the Hornets, Charlotte is playing better at this point and time in the season. The Hornets are 22-6 SU their last 28 games overall, 12-3 SU their last 15 games with the best average +/- in the league over that stretch of +15.9ppg. In that same span of games, they have the best Net rating in the league at +16.2. Even when you compare the season efficiency differentials the Knicks have a slight advantage of +6.9 compared to the Hornets +4.7 and Charlotte got off to a horrible start to the season. New York has won 7 straight games but take a look at who those wins have come against: Utah, Indiana, Golden State, Brooklyn, Washington and New Orleans, literally the worst teams in the league other than GST. New York won the first two meetings of the season but those were back in late November, early December. With the addition of Coby White, the Hornets added depth to their backcourt and are playing as well as anyone in the East right now. Take the home team in this one and watch it be a double-digit victory.

#914 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+115) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - The White Sox won only 60 games last season (a 3rd straight dismal season) and are projected by most to again finish at the bottom of the American League this season. Chicago starter Shane Smith was drafted by the Brewers and this will be his first start in Milwaukee. However, he did face the Brewers one time in his rookie season last year and he allowed 10 baserunners in 5 innings and he was very fortunate to only allow 1 earned run. Milwaukee will be honed in on his offerings again here. The Brewers are projected to regress slightly this season but, keep in mind, the Brewers set a franchise record with 97 wins last season. Jacob Misiorowski gets the start here for Milwaukee and the young phenom was fantastic last season plus got post-season experience. He was not only a successful flame-thrower last season, he particularly handcuffed hitters at home. That is going in his favor here as he gets the call in the Brewers home opener. Another edge for Misiorowski here is that the White Sox have never faced him. They do not have a strong lineup and we expect Chicago to struggle for runs here against a phenom they have not faced before. The Brewers bullpen was also one of the better ones in the league last season as well as the year before and they again look strong entering this season. The run line is available at plus money here and we invest in a strong home team supported by big edges in this one. Lay the 1.5 runs Thursday with Milwaukee!

#23/24 ASA NHL play on UNDER 6.5 Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights, 9:30 pm ET Thursday - These clubs are right next to each other in the playoff race and that means look for "playoff style" hockey in this one. Edmonton is off a 5-2 win but they scored a total of only 2 goals in their 2 prior games. The Oilers also are dealing with a cluster of injuries at center including Leon Draisaitl and that is a big loss for this club. The Golden Knights have been struggling to score goals. Vegas has averaged scoring only 1 goal in their last 5 games! Also, in the last 10 losses for Vegas they have been held to 2 goals or less and in fact averaged scoring only 1 loss in those 10 defeats! These teams have a playoff history and there is no love lost between them and that means an intense game that is likely to not feature much in the way of open ice. Clearly defense is the theme tonight and we expect less than 6.5 total goals in this one.

World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Playoff Semi-Finals - #225221/225222 ASA PLAY ON OVER 2.5 goals (-140) North Macedonia at Denmark, Thursday at 3:45 ET - Denmark is a large favorite here and they are favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line.  We look for them to dictate the flow of this match and they have scored 18 goals in their last 5 matches!  North Macedonia gave up 7 goals in their most recent match and they are in trouble here on the road again.  Denmark was beaten 4-2 in their most recent match and that was on the road.  Now back at home and facing a weaker foe, Denmark is going to cut loose here and pile up goals. The result should be 3 or more finding the back of the net here and the Over gets the call in this one!   

#619 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +8 over Arizona, Thursday at 9:45 PM ET - Razorback head coach John Calpari has been a master in the underdog role in the tourney. He’s been a dog 13 times in the Big Dance with a 9-3-1 ATS record and as a dog of 4 points or more his teams are 7-1 ATS. The Razors are playing as well as they have all season with 7 straight wins which is a key factor here. That’s because teams that are on at least a 6 game winning streak and tabbed as underdogs in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 are huge money makers sitting at 41-16 ATS since 2005. That system has been even better as of late with those teams going 23-5 ATS since 2015! Arkansas can score in bunches which will make it tough for Zona to pull away here. The Razorbacks average 90 PPG on the season and they’ve scored at least 80 points in all but 7 of their 36 games this season. They rank 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency, 15th in eFG%, 10th in 3 point FG%, 1st in offensive turnover rate, and they make 75% of their FT’s. They also have one of the best shot makers in CBB in PG Acuff. All of those offensive numbers make it very tough to beat this team period and especially by margin. The Wildcats have all the pressure in this one as the #1 seed. They’ve been great under head coach Tommy Lloyd early in the dance (8-1 SU in first 2 rounds) but they are 0-3 SU in the Sweet 16 under Lloyd. Arizona has had an easy path to this point (as expected for a #1 seed) beating 16 seed LIU and 9 seed Utah State. In their game vs USU, the Cats won by 12 but had some huge advantages hitting 41% of their triples to just 25% for the Aggies. They also corralled a ridiculous 55% of their missed shots and attempted 39 FTs (made 27) to just 11 attempts (8 made) for USU. Even with that it was still just a 12 point game. The Cats are an impressive 34-2 on the season, but vs high level teams (top 25 KenPom) they’ve rarely been able to win big with only 3 of their 11 games vs those teams decided by more than 10 points (Arkansas is 17th). If the Razors can be at least respectable on the defensive glass, this one should be close throughout. Take the points.