Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -8.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 6:30pm ET - All the home teams came through on Saturday in the first set of playoff games – and that makes them 18-2 SU 16-4 ATS dating back to the start of last years playoffs. As we wrote about in our Eastern Conference prediction, the Pistons are completely being overlooked and undervalued in our opinion in this first game. Detroit won 60 games this season – most in the East and had an average scoring differential of +8.2ppg. They were 31-9 SU at home with an average plus/minus of +10.5ppg. Detroit is one of a handful of teams in the playoffs that were in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating and had the 3rd best efficiency Net rating overall. Orlando is 19th in oEFF and 11th in dEFF and are in a tough spot here coming off that emotional beat-down of the Charlotte Hornets. Orlando played two very meaningful games this week with travel while the Pistons were home resting. Teams with this scheduling advantage (Detroit) have been very profitable in the past and this number is a bargain price. Part of the oddsmakers logic in making this line as low as they did is influenced by Cade Cunningham missing a portion of the season recently with a collapsed lung. But Cunningham has a few games under his belt and is off 3-days rest going into today. Plus, everyone just watched the Magic destroy the Hornets. Our power ratings have the Magic as the worst team in the playoffs, slightly below the Suns and Blazers who are both double-digit dogs to the Thunder and Spurs. Detroit will be out to prove a point in this opener and will make a statement against the Magic who may punt this game late if it gets out of hand. Lay it!

NOTE: If you have the option we recommend this as a *1ST 5 INNINGS PLAY* #907 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers 1st 5 Inn. -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are a massive favorite on the board today and it is deservedly so.  They just lost to a Rockies team that is annually one of the worst teams in the league and that had lost 7 of their last 8 games prior to yesterday's tight 4-3 win.  This is why the Dodgers are a -300 money line favorite and a -1.5 -180 favorite on the full game run line here.  Where we see the best value in this game is on the 1ST 5 INNINGS as the price on that is -110 and we like the lineup of the Dodgers much more than the Rockies (the numbers again this season do not lie).  We also like fading starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen of the Rockies.  Even though Roki Sasaki has had some struggles for the Dodgers early this season he is still facing a Rockies team that, prior to yesterday, was held to 3 runs or less in 13 of their 20 games this season!  Sasaki will enjoy success against a Colorado team that has not seen him yet in his young career.  As for Lorenzen, the Rockies right-hander has been roughed up in all 4 of his starts and is facing the wrong team at the wrong time to turn things around!  The Dodgers are 4-0 this season when off a loss and have scored an average of 7 runs in those 4 games.  Opponents are hitting .395 against Lorenzen in his 4 starts this season and he has an 8.62 ERA in those outings.  By the time 5 innings are in the books we expect that the Dodgers will already be up by multiple runs here and we like the value of the -110 price here on this option! Lay the -1.5 on the 1st 5 innings run line with the LA Dodgers in this one

#34 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals -105) over Los Angeles Kings, Sunday at 3 pm ET - The Avalanche are the top team in the NHL this season and they are hosting a Kings team that stumbled some to end the season.  Los Angeles lost 17 of their last 29 games and also lost more than half their games over the final month of the season.  The Avalanche won the Presidents Trophy as the top team in the NHL regular season and they are loaded with playoff experience plus 80% of their home wins this season were victories by at least a 2-goal margin.  That is why we have no hesitation here in laying the puck line with the Avs in this one.  Lay the 1.5 goals Sunday afternoon with Colorado and look for a blowout home win! 

ASA NBA play on UNDER 219.5 Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons, 6:30pm ET - We love this UNDER and don’t see these two teams coming close to this number. These two teams just met on April 6th and produced 230 total points, but it took an uncharacteristic great shooting night from the Magic to get there. Orlando shoots just 46.4% on the season (21st) and 34.2% from deep which ranks 27th in the NBA. Not to mention, the Pistons hold opponents to 44.3% shooting (3rd) and 34.5% from beyond the arc (1st). Detroit had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the league, allowing just 1.098 points per possession. The Magic are 11th in dEFF this season allowing 1.143ppp but didn’t play as well on that end of the floor post All Star break. Until they flipped the switch and completely shut down a good Hornets offense the other night. In their last seven games the Magic have held 5 foes to 109 or less points. In fact, in their last 5-games the Magic have the best overall dEFF in the league allowing 1.065ppp. Orlando was 19th if offensive efficiency this season and will struggle to score against this Pistons D. The Pistons were 10th in oEFF but based on what we’ve seen from Orlando recently, they too will struggle to put up points in this one. Detroit ranks 16th in eFG% since the All-Star break and have had a tougher time consistently making shots. Both teams will rely on their defenses in this one and keep this game from getting to 220. BET UNDER.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 213.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, 1pm ET - Playoff basketball is here and today we get a good one between two historical rivals in the Eastern Conference when the Sixers travel to Boston to take on the Celtics. We expect a lower scoring game similar to the three most recent meetings between these two teams. In the first meeting of the season between these two teams, they produced 233 total points and an OVER. Since then, three straight UNDERS with total points of 217, 202 and 212. Boston has been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA all season long with the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.112 points per possession. Philly is 17th in dEFF on the season but post All-Star break they’ve been slightly better ranking 15th in defensive Net rating. This is also going to be a slower paced game with the Celtics ranking last in the league in pace of play for the year at 94.9 possessions per game. Philadelphia was the 15th slowest team in the league at 99.4. The Sixers are without one of their leading scorers in Joel Embiid and will have a tough time making perimeter shots (76ers shoot just 46.2% on the season 23rd) against a Celtics defense that held opponents to 44.2% shooting – 2nd best in the NBA. Boston isn’t a great overall shooting team themselves at 46.7% which ranks 16th this season – but they do make 3-pointers at a 36.7% clip. Philly though has the 10th best 3PT% D in the league and will make it tough for the C’s to get into a rhythm beyond the arc. This one is shaping up to be an 80’s type Bird versus Erving grinder that stays below 210.

English Premier League #200025/200026 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-110) – Liuverpool at Everton, Sunday at 9 am et - Liverpool is hungry to respond here after a 2-0 home loss to PSG in Champions League action.  Now that there is no more Champions League (until next season...if they make it) to worry about for Liverpool, the Reds focus is on righting the ship in the Premier League.  They will build off a 2-0 win over Fulham in their most recent Premier League action.  The problem for Liverpool of late has been that they continue to concede too many goals from time to time and here they take on an Everton side that has scored multiple goals in 4 of its last 5 matches!  Couple that with the fact the odds makers have the Reds favored on the road here and you can see why we like the over plenty in this one.  All signs point to a high-scoring battle here and we'll take the Over.