Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on OVER 222.5 Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 pm ET - We love the added value in this number now as this line opened at 228 and has since moved down to the current 223. NBA games average 234 total points per game in raw numbers. Efficiency numbers have NBA games averaging 232.4ppg. Obviously this O/U is significantly lower than what an ‘average’ NBA game should be. The Pistons are 14th in pace of play this season, the Bucks are 18th. The Bucks offensive efficiency is trending down currently without Giannis in the lineup, but the Pistons are trending up. In Detroit's last 5 games they have the 8th best oEFF in the league, scoring 120+ in 4 of five. Not to mention, the Pistons should score here against this Bucks D that has slipped to 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.172-points per possession. These two Central Division rivals combined for more than 223 points in all four meetings a year ago, all overs. Granted, two of those meetings went to OT, but they were Over this number at the end of regulation in one of them and had 222 in the other at the end of the 4th Q. These two teams both rank top 10 in FG% shooting so it won’t take many possessions to get OVER this number.

#306580 ASA PLAY ON Lipscomb -4.5 over Western Carolina, Saturday at 5 PM ET - Lipscomb is 1-4 on the season and all of their losses have come on the road. They’ve played a tough schedule (65th strength of schedule) but after a few rough games to start the season they’ve been competitive the last 3 with 1 win and 2 close losses on the road (both covers). This is a solid program with 3 straight 20 win seasons including 25-10 a year ago. They’ve been fantastic at home with a 41-6 record over their last 47 here at Allen Arena. Western Carolina has won 3 straight (all at home) but they have been at home for 2 weeks and this will be their first road game since early November. They are 0-2 on the road this season and have lost 15 of their last 16 road games dating back to the start of last season. This program, unlike Lipscomb, hasn’t been overly successful with just one 20 win season since 2015 and they were 8-22 last year. If we look at straight stats neither team has been good this year. Lipscomb does have a few advantages, however besides being at home. They are the much better FT shooting team (87% to 69%) and they’ve been decent at creating turnovers at an 18% rate facing Western Carolina who turns it over at a 21% rate (307th). We’ll take the better program in basically a must win game at home.

English Premier League #200101/200102 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-130) – Bournemouth vs West Ham, Saturday at 10 am et - 5 of the last 6 Bournemouth matches have not only totaled at least 3 goals, each one reached at least the 4-goal mark!  We only need 3 to be a winner here and we like the value of that and will lay the price on this over 2.5 goals.  West Ham United is running hot with B2B wins in which they scored 3 goals in each victory and this followed a 2-1 loss.  In other words, the Hammers have had 3 straight matches reach at least the 3-goal mark.  In terms of match-up history, Bournemouth seeks revenge for a 2-0 loss in the Summer Series prior to the regular season starting.  The last meeting between these clubs in league action was in April and it was a 2-2 draw.  Both clubs have scored in each of their last 4 Premier League meetings and only 1 draw in the last 9 matches for the visitors and 2 draws in the last 9 matches for the hosts here. In other words, high odds on both clubs scoring and high odds on this one NOT ending in a draw!  Per all of the above, you can see why we like the over plenty in this one and why we have no hesitation in laying the moderate price here with the over at 2.5 goals! 

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -8.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET - The Hawks have lost two straight and will look to bounce back in New Orleans against one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Pelicans have the 2nd worst overall efficiency differential at minus -13.3, only ahead of the Wizards. New Orleans has the 5th worst offensive efficiency at 1.101PPP and the 29th defensive efficiency allowing 1.243PPP. In comparison the Hawks are 14th in dEFF, 13th in oEFF. Atlanta lost at San Antonio on Thursday but had won 4 straight on the road in their most recent road trip. Two of those road wins were against similar teams to the Pels (Kings, Jazz) and both of those wins games by double-digits. Going into Friday night the Pelicans had lost 7 straight games 5 of which were at home, and all 5 came by more than this spread. New Orleans is 1-7 SU at home with a negative average point differential of minus -12ppg. Atlanta 7-3 SU on the road this season and also benefit from a scheduling advantage as the Pels played Friday night.

#178 ASA PLAY ON San Diego State -11.5 over San Jose State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - San Diego State sits at 5-1 and in 1st place in the Mountain West after topping Boise State by 10 points here last week. They are fighting for a spot in the MWC Championship game while San Jose State is now just playing out the string in a disappointing season. The Spartans loss last week @ Nevada dropped them to 3-7 and out of bowl contention. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week we could see this SJSU team being flat. Not only did the Spartans lose @ Nevada last week as a 9-point favorite, they were destroyed 55-10 which tells us this team might be done. Nevada’s offense has been terrible this year not topping 22 points in a single game until posting 55 last week on 413 total yards. To put that in perspective, the Wolfpack entered last week’s game vs San Jose State averaging 273 years (132nd nationally) and 13 PPG (133rd). The Spartans actually canned their defensive coordinator after the game after they have allowed at least 28 points in 8 of their last 9 games. Offensively, they’ve scored 16 and 10 points the last 2 weeks vs Air Force (128th in total D) and Nevada (63rd in total D). Now they face a San Diego State defense that ranks 7th nationally in total defense, 5th in YPP allowed, and 7th in pass D which matches up perfectly vs this SJSU offense. The Spartans can’t run the ball (112th in rushing) but love to fling it around which will be tough vs this defense. The Aztecs are the much more buttoned up team with fewer turnover, fewer penalties, and they have a LOT more to play for in their home finale. They are a perfect 5-0 at home with all wins coming by double digits. San Jose is 0-5 on the road this year. San Diego State rolls.

#142 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -2.5 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 7 PM ET - The Panthers are coming off a huge game last week, a home loss to Notre Dame 15-37. Pittsburgh has some inflated defensive numbers based off a soft schedule and last week the Irish exposed them for what they are. The Panthers had a top ranked defense against the run, then ND pounded them for 175 yards at 4.9 yards per carry. The Pitt offense managed just 219 total yards and 3.4 YPP. Georgia Tech is off a wake up 36-34 win at BC last week as a -16.5-point favorite. Granted, GT has faced that same soft schedule but have the vastly superior offensive statistics and the best player on the field in QB Haynes King. The Yellowjackets average nearly 500-total yards per game offensively (2nd most in the country) and rank 1st in nation in YPP at 7.5, 11th in rushing and 28th in passing. The Panthers offense is average at best and really struggles to run the football ranking 113th in rushing YPG, 117th in rushing YPC. We are not sure they can exploit a Tech D that allows 6.0 YPP. The line on this game is what sealed the deal for us, especially when you run the comparative spreads versus common opponents this season. Pitt is 2-9 ATS their last eleven on the road. Tech 5-0 SU at home this season with an average MOV of +16.0 PPG. Lay it with the Yellowjackets.

#181/182 ASA PLAY ON Over 59 Points - USC vs Oregon, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - These teams have played in some not so great weather as of late but Saturday afternoon in Eugene looks perfect with temps in the 50’s, light winds, and no precipitation. Last week USC put up 26 points on a top 10 Iowa defense with record rains falling in LA. For Oregon, 3 games ago they faced Wisconsin here in terrible weather and then went to Iowa and had the same situation. One thing we know we’re getting here is high level offenses. Both are top 12 nationally in total offense and when it comes to YPP they rank 2nd and 3rd in the country. Oregon has scored at least 30 points in 7 of their 10 games and 2 of the games they did not, vs Wisconsin and Iowa, were in terrible weather as we mentioned above. USC has also scored at least 30 points in 7 of their 10 games and one where they did not was last week vs Iowa in bad weather. We know the offenses are very good but how about the defenses? Oregon has great defensive stats this season however they’ve played a terrible slate of offensive teams this year. In their 9 games vs FBS teams, the Ducks have faced 7 offenses ranked 96th or lower in total offense and 6 of those were outside the top 100. The only top 40 offense they’ve played was Indiana who put up 30 points. USC’s defense does not rank highly sitting at 73rd in YPP allowed. They’re in a similar spot facing only 1 top 40 offense this year, Notre Dame, who scored 34 points. Our power ratings have this total set closer to 65 so we’ll take the value and go OVER in this one.