Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 234.5 Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8pm ET - Denver (124.6 oEFF) and Minnesota (120.6 oEFF) are two of the most efficient offenses in the NBA. Denver is 3rd in eFG% shooting at 57.6%, the Wolves are 2nd at 58.6%. That means we don’t need a high possession game to get a higher scoring output. Minnesota is 14th in pace of play, the Nuggets are 24th. We also like the consistency from both teams when it comes to scoring in the paint with the Nuggets averaging 56.9PIP (3rd), the Wolves are 10th at 53PIP. Last 3 meetings in Minnesota: 241, 237, 235 total points. Expect another high scoring affair tonight. Our model is projecting 244.3 total points. OVER 234.5 is the call.

World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage - #225297/225298 ASA PLAY ON OVER 3 goals (+105) Austria at Cyprus, Saturday at Noon ET - Austria is a big favorite here as they are favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line.  We look for them to dictate the flow of this match and Cyprus might make the net ripple too but will not be able to stop a club that outclasses them.  Austria will be ready to go strong here as they only won by a 1-0 count when these clubs met in September.  Additionally, Austria is fired up here as they enter off a 1-0 loss to Romania.  Prior to that Austria had scored 19 goals in 5 matches in this competition.  Granted 10 goals came in a beating of San Marino but they did score 9 goals in the other 4 games.  This club is plenty dangerous on the attack.  Cyprus is outclassed here but they at least have been scoring goals recently so they bring some confidence into this one plus they are at home for this one.  Cyprus has scored multiple goals in 3 straight matches and should get at least 1 goal here as well!  Getting to at least  3-1 shows high probability per our computer math modeling simulations.  Over gets the call in this one!    

#660 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska Omaha -9 over Southern Utah, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Omaha is in an early must win type spot here at home as they’ve started the season 0-3. All 3 of those games have been away from home and they had tight losses vs Murray State and Abilene Christian, both solid teams, and a blowout loss @ Colorado State (top 65 team) in their most recent game. Now they’ve had a full week off and finally get to play a home game. This UNO team is rated as one of the top 4 teams in the Summit League. They won the conference tourney last year and made it to the Big Dance. They finished with a 22-13 record and they have 4 of their top 7 players back from that team. The Mavericks were 11-2 at home last season and 22-5 the last 2 years. Southern Utah lost pretty much everyone from last year’s team including their 5 starters. They have only 2 players back who played minimal roles a season ago. The are rated outside the top 300 and currently sit as the lowest rated team in the WAC. The Thunderbirds rank outside the top 300 in both eFG% offense and defense. Their 3 point D has been horrendous this year 49% from deep while their offense makes less than 24% of their triples. They are 1-2 with 2 double digit losses and their only win was vs Bethesda. They have been poor on the road winning only 6 of their last 31. SUU also has a game @ Gonzaga in 2 days (on Monday) so they might be a bit distracted here. Lay it with Nebraska Omaha.

#416 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -7.5 over Louisiana Tech, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Really rough spot here for La Tech. The blew a game they had in the bag @ Delaware and now they travel to the West Coast to take on Washington State who is coming off bye. LT led the Blue Hens last week by 10 points with under 1:00 minute remaining the game and lost. Delaware scored 10 points in the final 40 seconds to win. To make matters worse, the Bulldogs lost their starting QB Baker in that loss and he is done for the season. Having to travel home from Delaware after a devastating loss (almost 2,500 miles round trip) and then heading to Pullman, Washington (4,300 miles round trip) is a tough ask. The Cougars had 2 weeks to stew over their 10-7 loss @ Oregon State, a game in which they outgained the Beavers by nearly 100 yards. This team is 4-5 right now and they need 2 more wins for bowl eligibility so this is a huge home game for them. Wazzu is 3-1 at home this year with their only loss coming vs Washington. They have wins here vs San Diego State by 23 (best team the Mountain West) and Toledo by 21 (best team in the MAC). They also took Ole Miss and Virginia to the wire on the road this year losing by 3 and 2 points respectively. Those 2 teams are fighting to make their Conference Championship games and have a combined record of 17-3. La Tech is 1-3 on the road this year with their only win coming @ UTEP, one of the worst teams in the country. On the road this year the Bulldogs are only averaging 256 YPG and allowing 360 YPG. Washington State has played the much tougher schedule (56th SOS to 128th) and this one sets up perfectly. We like Wazzu by double digits.

#402 ASA PLAY ON USC -6.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line is too low in our opinion. For comparison’s sake, last week Oregon was laying the same number (-6.5) @ Iowa as USC is laying at home on Saturday. We were on the Ducks last weekend and didn’t get the cover as they won by 18-16 @ Iowa. The conditions were tough with high winds, rain and sleet which really helped Iowa in that situation. The conditions made it tough for the much better offensive team, Oregon, to pull away and make a poor Iowa offense chase. Despite the tight final score, the Ducks outgained the Hawkeyes by 134 yards and put up 261 yards rushing to just 101 for Iowa. If the weather wasn’t bad in that game, we have no doubt Oregon wins by more than a TD. This is a rough spot for the Hawkeyes as they went all in on that game last week and lost on a last second FG. Now they travel to the west coast for the first time this year to face a USC team that is 5-0 at home with every win coming by at least 14 points. Last week the Trojans were impressive easily handling a surging Northwestern team that had won 4 of their previous 5 games including a win @ Penn State when the Nittany Lions still had starting QB Allar healthy. USC rolled the Cats 38-17 putting up almost 500 total yards to just 280 for NW. The Trojans also beat a very good Michigan team handily here by 18 points outgained the Wolverines by 174 yards while rushing for 224 yards on 6.2 YPC. This USC team is undervalued right now, especially at home. They have a huge edge offensively in this game averaging nearly 200 YPG more than Iowa and they put up 2.6 more YPP than the Hawks. Iowa hasn’t been on the road since they faced Wisconsin on October 11th. They’ve played 3 straight home games since then. Their league road schedule has been very weak facing Wisconsin and Rutgers and that’s it. Their game at Rutgers was a 10 point win, however the Scarlet Knights put up over 400 total yards outgained Iowa but the Hawkeyes had a kick return for a TD. USC is 4-1 ATS at home this season and they’ve covered 9 of 11 here since the start of last year. Looks like some rain in LA on Saturday but temps in the 60’s and winds around 10 MPH so not terrible. We’ll call for another here as USC wins this by 10+.

#348 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +7 over Penn State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - These teams stand 3-6 SU with basically nothing to play for. The difference is, the Spartans weren’t expected to be good this year and are in a rebuild mode. Penn State on the other hand was one of the favorites to win the National Championship prior to the start of the season. We are betting the Lions are flat in this game after their demoralizing loss last week to Indiana. Not only are they coming off that loss, they faced Ohio State and Iowa in previous games which had to have taken an emotional toll. Last Saturday PSU led Indiana and was about to pull off a massive upset, then IU scored with :36 seconds left in the game for the W. Sparty played well last two weeks ago in Minnesota a 20-23 loss but MSU put up 467 total yards at 6.8YPP, while holding Minnesota to 301yds 4.9YPP. Michigan State got a bump in that game offensively with QB Milivojevic making his first career start and going 20/28 for 311 passing yards. If you take a closer look at each teams overall offensive and defensive numbers you will see many similarities: PSU total offense 110th at 335 total YPG, 97th YPP at 5.3, MSU 103rd total O at 347ypg at 5.4YPP. Spartans defense allows 371ypg, Penn State allows 326ypg. Given the circumstances, this line is higher than it should be and the value lies with the motivated home underdog.

#393 ASA PLAY ON TCU +4 over BYU, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET - We successfully played against BYU last week and will double-down this Saturday with a wager on TCU. This is a perfect fade spot on the Cougars who are off their first loss of the season, which historically has a negative carryover affect the following week. Part of our handicap last week was obviously in support of BYU being overrated at this point of the season. TCU is 6-3 but in only one of those losses where they outplayed and they could legitimately be 8-1 here. We like the fact that the Frogs are coming off a misleading loss last week to Iowa State. Against the Cyclones, the Horned Frogs had 30 FD’s to 15, 452 total yards compared to 272, but essentially lost when ISU returned a punt for a TD late. On the subject of Iowa State, both teams have faced the Cyclones with TCU a -7.5-point home favorite, BYU was +2.5 at ISU. Both teams have also squared off with West Virginia. BYU was laying 20.5 points at home, TCU was just favored by -16.5 points at WV. BYU averages 6.2 yards per play (37th), TCU ranks 33rd at 6.1YPP. BYU allows 4.9YPP (27th), TCU gives up 5.2YPP (55th) so very similar statistics against comparable schedules. The betting indicators clearly favor TCU here with public bettors flocking to the Cougars off their loss, yet the line has moved significantly in favor of TCU. We will grab the points and won’t be shocked with the outright win.

#333/334 ASA PLAY ON Over 61.5 Points – Marshall vs Georgia State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Both these teams could easily get into the 30’s facing really poor defenses. Georgia State’s defense allows 42 PPG and ranks 135th out of 136 teams in scoring D. Marshall allows 32 PPG and ranks 120th. They rank 124th and 128th in YPP allowed. In their last 4 games, Georgia State has allowed 41, 41, 38, and 40 points and 3 of those offenses are ranked lower than Marshall’s offense. The Herd put up at least 40 points in each of their first 4 Sun Belt games and over the last 2 weeks they scored 27 and 23 vs Coastal Carolina and James Madison. In their 27 point performance vs Coastal they had 432 yards but 5 turnovers and were shut out on downs twice. Needless to say, they could have easily pushed 40 points in that game. Last week vs JMU they scored 23 points but put up over 400 yards on one of the top defenses in the country (8th in total defense). It was the most yardage JMU has allowed in a game this season. Marshall’s D has allowed at least 28 points in 5 of their 6 conference games including 35+ in 4 of those games. Georgia State doesn’t have great season long offensive numbers but they are trending up scoring 24, 31, and 27 points over their last 3 games. We love the match ups here as well. Georgia State loves to sling it averaging almost 40 pass attempts per game (14th nationally) and they are facing a Marshall D that ranks 120th vs the pass. On the other side of the ball, Marshall is 16th nationally averaging 211 YPG rushing and facing a Ga State defense that ranks 129th vs the rush. The offenses should dominate here in a very high scoring game.

#344 ASA FREE PLAY ON Indiana -28.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 12 PM ET - It’s not often we lay a huge number but this one is warranted. Indiana has played only 3 Big 10 home games and they’ve won those by 53 points (vs Illinois), by 50 points (vs UCLA), and by 25 points (vs MSU). IU head coach Cignetti is not afraid to bury teams and he’s done just that at home. The Hoosiers are undefeated at home since Cignetti took over at the beginning of last season and their average margin of victory in those games is +36 points. They are in the top 10 nationally in both total offense and total defense. This offense has put up at least 30 points in 17 of their 23 games under Cignetti. The problem for Wisconsin is they can’t score. They have only 4 total TD’s in their 6 Big 10 games and they haven’t topped 300 total yards in a conference game this season. Last week they beat Washington at home 13-10 with 205 total yards and 48 yards passing, of which 24 came from their punter on a fake punt. It looks like true freshman Carter Smith will get his first ever collegiate start here. That’s a rough spot for an inexperienced QB. If Wisconsin can’t run the ball, they are in huge trouble. The IU defense allows just 83 YPG on the ground so Smith will have to somehow create some plays through the air. The Badger defense has been very solid over the last few games but they are running into a juggernaut here as Indiana averages 548 YPG on 7.7 YPP at home this season. This one looks like another Hoosier home blow out.