Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASAwins NBA play on NY Knicks -8 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40pm ET - The Bucks have lost 6-straight games and it’s not going to matter if Giannis is back or not for this one. Giannis is questionable tonight against the Knicks and I’m guessing he returns but it won’t be enough to cover against this Knicks team. These two teams met earlier this season in Milwaukee with the Bucks being a +2-point home dog. Milwaukee won that game by 10-points and this time around it will be the home team Knicks by double-digits. The Bucks lost most recently to the Heat by 3-points but prior to that their 5 losses were all by 10+ points. The Knicks are coming off a successful 3-2 road trip and have won 7 of their last ten overall. New York is 8-1 SU at home this season with the 3rd best average point differential of +12.3ppg. On that note, the Bucks are 3-5 SU away with an average differential of minus -6.2ppg. This is a massive game for the Cup standings as the winner has a chance to move on. These teams aren’t as close as this number indicates as the Knicks have the 5th best efficiency differential in the NBA at +6.6 compared to the Bucks at -2.8. Revenge, health, venue, Cup…it all adds up to a big home win for New York.

French Ligue 1 - #203237/203238 ASA PLAY ON OVER 2.5 goals (-140) Rennes at Metz, Friday at 2:45 ET - The last five times these clubs have squared off the game reached a total of at least 3 goals all 5 times.  In fact, those 5 games averaged a crazy 5 goals apiece.  When these clubs meet the goals fly and we expect that to be the case once again here.  Metz enters this match on a high-scoring run in which they have scored 2 goals in 4 straight games!  Rennes has scored 16 goals in their last 7 games and also 8 of their last 10 games reached a total of at least 3 goals scored.  Based on current trending of both clubs as well as the match-up history when these teams meet, this one should easily eclipse the total of 2.5 goals and we'll lay the price here with no hesitation as we love this total at 2.5 goals.  Our computer math model has this one most likely finishing in the 2-1 or 2-2 range. Over gets the call in this one!

#609 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma -2 over Marquette, Friday at 2 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Chicago. Marquette is a young team with 4 underclassmen in their top 7 and still trying to figure things out. They are 4-3 on the year despite playing all home games and 1 neutral site game. While other teams are grabbing experienced players in the portal to fill spots, Marquette coach Shaka Smart doesn’t really use the portal. He builds with his young players which is fine, but when they lose their 3 leading scorers from last season (combined to average almost 45 PPG) and replace them with inexperienced players, it can be tough sledding early in the season. Oklahoma has a number of transfers but they are all experienced players who play big roles on their previous teams. The start 4 upperclassmen and their rotation is mainly seniors and juniors. They have 2 losses this season @ Gonzaga, which was to be expected, and vs Nebraska on a neutral court here in Chicago. The Huskers have proven to be very solid early in the season (7-0 record) and Oklahoma blew a 16 point lead in that game. The Golden Eagles thrive on creating turnovers for extra possessions (41st defensive turnover rate) and getting to the FT line (top 100 in percentage of points from the FT line). That doesn’t match well vs this Sooner team who has a very experienced backcourt and doesn’t turn the ball over (13th in offensive turnover rate). They also don’t foul with opponents scoring only 14% of their points from the charity stripe (11th best in the country). Oklahoma is the better shooting team across the board overall FG%, 3 point FG% and FT%. We’ll lay the small number here as we expect the Sooners to win this one by a solid margin.

#329 ASA PLAY ON Georgia -14 over Georgia Tech, Friday at 3:30 PM ET @ Mercedes Benz Stadium - Georgia Tech received 10 million dollars to move this game from their home stadium (Bobby Dodd) to the Mercedes Benz Dome here in Atlanta. That venue has become a “second home” for the Bulldogs even though Tech is located in Atlanta. The Dogs have played at least 1 game at this stadium every year since 2017. UGA is 4-0 at Mercedes Benz Stadium vs non SEC foes in Kirby Smart’s time here. Smart’s team has quietly been playing as well as any team in the country down the stretch. They have won 7 straight since losing by 3 points vs Alabama with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. They’ve also covered 5 of their last 6 games. The offense has posted at least 35 points in 5 of their last 7 and should have a field day vs a really bad Georgia Tech stop unit who has allowed 48, 34, and 42 points the last 3 weeks vs NC State, BC, and Pitt. Those teams are obviously nowhere near the level of this UGA team. Tech actually lost 2 of those games vs NC State and Pitt (both by double digits) while beating a terrible BC team by 2 points. The Jackets were in must win mode at home last week vs Pitt and lost 42-28. A win would have put them in the ACC Championship game and they got smoked (down 28-0 out of the gate). They now have no chance to make the title game. The Jackets lean on their running game but they are facing a UGA defense that has shut opposing teams rushing attacks down (5th nationally allowing 92 YPG on the ground). While Tech’s defense is really bad, their offense does have great numbers, however they’ve faced a very weak slate of defenses including stop units ranked 110th or lower in 4 of their last 5 games. Different story here with an athletic UGA D in the top 20. The Bulldogs have incentive to pour it on if they can to improve their potential playoff seed as well. Let’s lay it.

#318 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +7 over Ole Miss, Friday at 12 PM ET - MSU has been undervalued all season as this team has been very competitive for the most part. Their spread record is 8-3 overall and 5-1 ATS at home with their only non-cover here coming vs Georgia. The Bulldogs would like nothing better than to ruin, or at least put into question, the Rebels shot at the CF Playoffs with an upset here. Not only that, they have the motivation of a 6 win season and a bowl game if they pull off this home win. Ole Miss, while trying to make it to the playoffs, have some serious distractions with head coach Lane Kiffin courting a number of different offers with LSU and Florida being at the forefront. In fact, Kiffin is the odds on favorite to end up in Baton Rouge with -200 posted at most sportsbooks. If he does take that job, he more than likely won’t even be around to coach Ole Miss in the playoffs if they make it. Weird situation. The Rebs have only played 3 road games this season and they are 1-2 ATS in those games with all decided by a single score. Last season Ole Miss was the host in the Egg Bowl and won by 12 but never led by more than 6 until their final TD in the fourth quarter. The YPP stats in that game were dead even (both averaged 5.3 YPP) but MSU had 3 turnovers (0 for Mississippi). Prior to last year’s game decided by 12 points, the previous 5 meetings were all decided by 10 points or less. The Bulldogs have taken some of the SEC’s elite to the wire here at home as they led Texas by 17 in the 4th quarter (lost in OT) and led Tennessee by 7 with under 2:00 remaining in the game (lost in OT). We’ll call for this one to go to the wire and take the points.