Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA PLAY ON 8* Carolina Hurricanes -120 on the Money Line over Los Angeles Kings, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - The Hurricanes are off 3 straight wins and starting to pick up momentum again. The Kings are off a win but had lost 6 of 8 before that and allowed an average of 4.5 goals in those 6 defeats. There is just no comparison between how these teams play at the back-end and that better defense and more stable goal-tending should key the win here for the Canes. Los Angeles is 0-3 the last 3 times when off a win. Their bad habits come back so quickly and that will again be the case for LA in this one. We think we’re getting some nice value getting the road team in this one with the Hurricanes available at very fair money line price as it is the perfect set-up for a road favorite win.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Blazers in this matchup as the Jazz are coming off a game last night, plus playing their 6th game in a nine day span. The Jazz are coming off a 20-point win over the Pacers last night but are just 3-3 SU their last six at home. The Blazers last played on Nov 30th, a loss to the Lakers who are clearly playing much better right now. Portland is 7-6 SU on the road this season with a +/- of minus -3.6PPG. Utah is 8-3 SU at home this season, but again they are in a very tough scheduling situation here. Dating back to the start of last season, the Jazz are just 9-9-1 ATS when playing without rest with a +/- of +2.9PPG. Utah is not a trustworthy favorite with a 35-50-2 ATS record since the start of the 2021 season, 3-6 ATS this season with a +/- of +2.8PPG. Portland as a dog is 11-5 ATS with a +/- of -3.4PPG. Grab whatever points are available and don’t be shocked if the Blazers win outright.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 232 Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets – 8:40 PM ET - The Rockets are in a tough situation here as are the Warriors. Houston is coming off an improbable upset of the Suns last night in Phoenix as a +11.5-point dog. Prior to that game the Rockets had played 2 straight in the higher altitude of Denver making this their 4th game in six days. Golden State played last night too and will probably rest Klay Thompson and maybe even Draymond Green here. This is the Warriors 3rd game in five days. These same two teams just met in Houston and produced a combined 247 total points. The Rockets defense has been especially bad allowing 119 or more in 7 of their last ten games. Even without Thompson in the lineup for GST the Warriors can still score with Poole and DiVincenzo off the bench. Poole just poured in 30-points last night. Golden State historically has been a great defense under Steve Kerr but that hasn’t been the case this season as they rank 17th in defensive efficiency and give up 117PPG. The young Rockets are starting to figure things out offensively as they have scored 118 or more points in 4 of their last six. Two tired teams won’t play much defense tonight and this goes Over rather easily.

#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 136 Points – Wisconsin vs Marquette, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Both teams coming off high scoring games earlier this week which gives us some value on the Under in this rivalry. The Badgers played host to Wake Forest on Tuesday and lost a tight one 78-75 which was easily their highest scoring game of the season. Even with that score factored in, Wisconsin games are averaging just 121 points on the season. IN that game the two teams combined to make over 48% of their shots and over 38% from beyond the arc. Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard was not happy after the game with his defense and you can bet they’ll play very well on that end here. Prior to that game the UW defense had allowed only 1 team to reach 60 points and that was Kansas who scored 63 in regulation. The Badgers held USC to 59, Dayton to 42, and Stanford to 50 to name a few. Marquette lit up Baylor here earlier this week scoring 96 points. However, they also made almost 60% of their shots and they were in a up and down the court game with the Bears who love to play fast. Marquette does as well ranking 27th in adjusted tempo. Wisconsin ranks 303rd in that category and Gard will do everything in his power to slow this game down to keep the Golden Eagles out of their comfort zone. As we’ve said many times, it’s much easier for a team to slow the pace rather than speed up a team that doesn’t want to play that style. We expect a lower possession game here. Both teams are strong defensively ranking 16th (Wisconsin) and 40th (Marquette) in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles have been able to turn teams over and create easy buckets this season but that’ll be tough vs Wisconsin who ranks 21st in offensive turnover rate. Marquette played one team this year that was very similar to Wisconsin in defensive efficiency and pace and that was Mississippi State. That game ended with a final score of 58-55 in favor of the Bulldogs. This one stays Under the total in this intense, in-state rivalry.

#307 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State +2 over TCU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This line screams KSU in our opinion. We have an undefeated TCU team facing a 3 loss KSU team who they already beat this season and is playing for a spot in the College FB Playoff yet this line sits below 3 at just 2.5. Lots of pressure on the Horned Frogs here while a very good Kansas State team can play loose. In their first meeting this season @ TCU, the Wildcats led 28-10 near the end of the first half but blew the lead when they lost their starting QB Martinez AND their back up QB Howard in the game leaving a freshman at QB from mid 3rd quarter on. After Howard exited in the 3rd quarter, the Cats gained only 43 yards from that point on with their young, inexperienced 3rd string QB. We have no doubt that game would have played out differently had KSU had either of their top QB’s available down the stretch. They are both most likely available here. We know Howard will start and don’t be surprised if Martinez gets some snaps to keep the TCU defense guessing. Last week TCU rolled up a huge win 62-14 over Iowa State yet only outgained the Cyclones by 47 yards but ISU had a bunch of turnovers including 2 pick 6’s for the Frogs. It was ISU’s final game of the season, on the road, with nothing to play for. Prior to last week TCU had trailed or were tied in the 4th quarter in 5 of their previous 7 games but were able to win and nearly half of their wins (5) were one possession final scores. They were fortunate to be +7 turnovers in Big 12 play as well. We think TCU’s luck runs out here and KSU gets the upset.

#321/322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -7.5 over UNC, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We like this spot for Clemson off a 1 point loss to a surging South Carolina team as a double digit favorite. It wasn’t a terrible loss by any means vs a surging Gamecocks team who had won 3 of their last 4 games including a 63-38 win over a top 5 Tennessee team. The Tigers blew a 9 point second half lead in that game and head coach Dabo Swinney made all of his coaches put in extra film time after that loss in preparation for the ACC Championship game. Clemson is very well coached and we feel they’ll play outstanding in this game after last week’s result. UNC is trending downward for sure. They have lost back to back games vs teams using back up QB’s. The Heels lost at home to a bad Georgia Tech team 21-17 on November 19th and the Jackets were without their starting QB Sims in that game and lost their back up during the game. UNC followed that loss up by getting beat again at home last Saturday by NC State who played their 3rd string QB Finley and he had only appeared in one other game this season. The offense, particularly, QB Maye looks like they are running out of gas. They struggled to put up yardage each of the last 2 weeks (350 and 365 total yards) and now they face one of the better defensive fronts in college football. Maye’s numbers have dropped off drastically the last 2 weeks as he has completed just 57% of his passes for 215 YPG through the air. Clemson with a huge edge defensively here (24th in total D to 117th for North Carolina) and they have a solid coaching advantage. Clemson is used to playing in big games like this and we like them to win by double digits.