Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#306526 ASA PLAY ON McNeese State -1 over Murray State, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in the Cayman Islands. Both of these teams played yesterday as well with McNeese topping a very good George Washington team (62nd in KenPom ratings) by 6 points while Murray State lost by 3 vs Middle Tennessee State (142nd per KenPom). The Racers are still adjusting to a new head coach and they don’t have a single key player back from last season. All 5 starters and their top reserves are either transfers or freshmen. They are 4-2 on the season but all 4 wins have come vs teams ranked 230 or lower per KenPom. Murray State’s strength of schedule to date is 304th. In their loss vs Middle Tennessee State last night actually made 10 more FT’s and 1 more 3 pointer so they were +13 points from FT and 3 yet still lost the game. McNeese, on the other hand, has already faced a top 70 strength of schedule and they sit with a 4-1 record. Their lone loss was @ Santa Clara who is 6-0 on the season. McNeese was 27-6 last season and upset Clemson in the NCAA tourney before losing by 12 to Purdue. They return 4 of their top 7 players so much more continuity for this team early in the season. They do have a new head coach Bill Armstrong who took over for Will Wade (went to NC State) but Armstrong has coached under Wade (at LSU) so the system is similar. Despite playing the tougher schedule, the Cowboys have the better stats across the board ranking 4th nationally in shooting percentage (Murray State ranks 63rd) and 22nd in defensive FG% allowed (Murray ranks 211th). McNeese also shoots 80% from the FT line and they are 3rd nationally in defensive turnover rate (27%). We’ll lay this small number with McNeese State.

Spanish La Liga: Rotation #201837/201838 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (+125) – Sevilla at Espanyol, Monday at 3:00 ET - Great setup for goals here.  Sevilla is off a 1-0 win but this low-scoring battle was on the heels of 5 straight games (and 8 of the last 9) totaling 3 or more goals!  Those 8 matches averaged 3.8 goals per game and this is a club that will not back down on the road either.  The situation is ideal for goals as Espanyol is off a rare home shutout loss.  Espanyol had averaged scoring 1.8 goals in the 4 home matches prior to that one.  The hosts will be putting extra emphasis on the attack here as a result and we expect solid success for them in that regard.  The issue for Espanyol is in protecting their own goal as they have conceded 2 or more goals in 5 of the last 10 matches.  The last 7 meetings between these clubs have averaged 3.1 goals.  Another item of note is that Sevilla will be without a starting defender, Jose Angel Carmona, as he is suspended for this one.  Our computer math model shows 2-1 as the most likely result here and a 2-2 draw also is not far behind on the prediction model. This is another reason we are looking for 3 or more here and adding to the value in this one is the fact that solid plus money is available on the Over 2.5 goals! We will take the 'over' here for a Top Game.

ASA play on UNDER 50 Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers, 8:15pm ET - Last week the Panthers put up 30-points against the Falcons but that was an outlier based on their previous 4 games when they scored 7, 16, 9 and 13 points. The 49ers scored 41 points but had just 281 total yards of offense. Carolina is 22nd in total yards per game at 314, 26th in yards per play at 5.2 and 28th in scoring at 18.8ppg. The Panthers want to run the football (7th most rush attempts per game) which is great for us UNDER bettors as it typically shortens games. They could have a tough time though as that’s the strength of the 49ers defense which allows 104 rushing yards per game (12th) and 4.1 yards per rush (13th). San Francisco hasn’t lived up to expectations defensively, but they are still average in points allowed at 23 per game. The Niners seem to move the ball offensively with the 10th most total yards per game average this season (350yds) at 5.6 YPP (14th) but it hasn’t translated to a ton of points as they average 23.7ppg (15th). The Panther’s defense is near average in a lot of defensive categories including total YPG (15th) allowed, and PPG allowed (13th). With both teams coming off higher scoring games last week the oddsmakers had to adjust the numbers this week expecting public money on the OVER. That’s great for us though as we’ll grab the added value with UNDER.

ASA play on Chicago @ New Orleans Under 242½ - Our NBA model is projecting a total of 235.1, dragged down by NOP's anemic 109.7 offensive efficiency (oEFF - bottom-5 league-wide) facing Chicago's 118 dEFF. The Bulls are one of the faster paced teams in the NBA but the Pelicans are one of the slowest. Chicago has not been great offensively either this season ranking 19th in offensive efficiency. H2H last season produced totals of 232 and 234 —Pelicans' injury-riddled roster will have a tough time putting up points in this one and the Bulls have a few key injuries as well. Bet UNDER.

ASA play on Utah @ Golden State Under 239½ - Model sees just 229.4 points, thanks to Utah's middling 114.9 oEFF against GSW's stingy 113.8 dEFF, at a deliberate 100.9 combined pace (below league avg of 100.5). Last season in 3 meetings the UNDER cashed twice. Utah's road woes (last 10 away unders 7-3) seal the low-scoring trap. Jazz also 6-10 UNDER their last 16 when playing without rest.

ASA play on Houston @ Phoenix Over 226½ - Our model projects 235.2 total, fueled by Houston's blistering 124.6 oEFF (elite offense) clashing with Phoenix's 118.7 oEFF in a combined pace of ~98.4 possessions. Both teams rank top-10 in scoring efficiency this season , with Houston averaging 122.9 PPG and Suns 119.0 . Houston on 5-2 OVER streak in their last seven games. This game has extra excitement with the return of Kevin Durant to Phoenix. Bet OVER.