Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -3.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx, 10 pm ET - This is a very favorable line for the Mercury who should win this game by double digits against the Lynx without Napheesa Collier, one of the 2 best players in the league. Phoenix opened the season with a big upset win over the Aces – who had beaten them in the playoffs a year ago – then lost their next game in Golden State. Minnesota is coming off a 1-point loss at home to Atlanta – who we feel is vastly overrated. Phoenix has the better roster at this point with Alyssa Thomas – another potential MVP candidate along with Copper and Bonner. They also have promising rooked Olivia Miles who scored 21-points in her WNBA debut. Phoenix was 18-10 SU at home a year ago with an average +/- of plus 5.4PPG. As a home favorite they were 9-10 ATS but had an average margin of victory in those games of +6.2PPG. This Minnesota team is not the same without Collier and they’ll have a tough time scoring in this one against a Mercury team that was 5th in defensive Net rating a year ago. Lay it with Phoenix.

ASA NBA play on OVER 218 Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs, 8pm ET - The first game of this series stayed UNDER with 206 total points but since then we’ve seen three straight OVERS with total points scored of 228, 223 and 223. In the most recent game the Spurs lost Wemby early with a flagrant 2 foul and still scored 109, even after shooting just 23% from beyond the arc. Now the Spurs are back at home where they’ll shoot better (49.2% at home, 47.3% road) and score more (119.6ppg at home this season – 4th highest). San Antonio was the 7th best 3PT shooting team on their home court this season at 37%. We will obviously need scoring from the Wolves too and should get it with Edwards and Randall more than capable of putting up big numbers. Minnesot ais the 3rd best 3PT shooting team in the NBA when playing on the road and have the 2nd best overall FG% when playing away. The Wolves scoring traveled with them as they were the 2nd highest scoring road team in the NBA at 119.7PPG. Minnesota has been the fastest paced team in the playoffs at 100.25, the Spurs are 3rd fastest at 99.11. We expect another game in the 220’s.

#30: ASA NHL play on Montreal Canadiens -140 over Buffalo, 7 pm ET Tuesday - You might remember we had Montreal in Game 2 of this series and we are rolling with them again here in Game 4 after sitting out Game 3 of this series.  As we mentioned Friday, the Canadiens had lost the first game 4-2 but had outshot the Sabres 28 to 16. We were looking for a big bounce back from Montreal in Game 2 and we got it with a 5-1 win.  Not only that, Montreal kept it going with a 6-2 win in Game 3 for another win by a 4-goal margin.  The Habs have not only won B2B games but we believe they have broken the Sabres spirit.  They have been the more aggressive and faster skaters and they have the much hotter goalie too.  While Lyon has fallen apart for Buffalo recently, Montreal continues to get fantastic goalie work from Dobes.  Not only that but, to us, the Canadiens beating the Lightning was a much more impressive series win than the Sabres beating the Bruins.  This series is starting to show clear separation in favor of the Canadiens and though the Sabres will surely battle hard off B2B losses, they are truly up against a superior foe here.  Lay the price with the Habs in this one and grab the favorite on the money line Tuesday as Montreal does it again!   

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs (-120) – Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET – The Giants continued their recent uptick in performance at the plate with a 9-3 win yesterday.  San Francisco has scored an average of 6 runs in their last 4 games.  The Dodgers bullpen struggled again yesterday and also their starter tonight is expected to be Yoshinobu Yamamoto and he has allowed 3 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts.  That included a start last month at San Francisco so the Giants also have an edge of having just faced him not too long ago.  As for Giants starter Adrian Houser, the former long-time Brewer is off to a very rough start this season.  He finally pitched better in his most recent start but he still took the loss and his overall numbers this season tell the full story.  Houser is 0-4 with a 6.19 ERA in his 7 starts this season and opponents are hitting nearly .300 against him on the year.  This continues a troubling trend for the right-hander as last season he struggled after he went to the Rays from the White Sox.  With Tampa Bay he made 10 starts and compiled a 4.79 ERA.  Houser has struggled badly at Dodger Stadium as he has allowed 16 earned runs in 11 and 2/3 innings in his last 3 visits there.  The Dodgers had 10 hits yesterday but scored only 3 runs.  They will bounce back today as Houser's struggles in this ballpark continue.  This total is in the 8.5 to 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over