Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on UNDER 234.5 San Antonio Spurs vs. NY Knicks, 8:30 pm ET - The Cup Finals are here! Who really cares other than us degenerate gamblers. Kidding aside, this should be a very entertaining NBA game with the up-and-coming Spurs and the veteran Knicks, in what should be a very competitive game. We are going to grab the value and bet UNDER. This line opened significantly lower than where it currently stands and our model agrees with what Vegas set originally and projects 227 total points being scored. These two teams are top 14 in defensive efficiency ratings overall and have some very good metrics within those overall numbers. The Knicks allow the 4th fewest points in the paint, the Spurs the 7th lowest. San Antonio allows the 2nd fewest fast break points per game, the Knicks 12th fewest. The Spurs give up the 3rd fewest 2nd chance points per game, New York gives up the 8th fewest. We make that point because those numbers suggest nothing will be easy or cheap in this one. The Spurs defense was outstanding against the Thunder, holding the best offense in the NBA to 109 total points. NY is coming off a higher scoring game against the Magic but shot incredibly well at 61% (average 48% on the season). In two meetings between these two teams last season they produced 231 and 224 total points. With the Cup on the line tonight we expect both teams to ramp up their defensive intensity and limit scoring opportunities. Bet the UNDER.

#624 ASA PLAY ON Wright State +1 over Miami OH, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Miami OH steps into this game with a perfect 10-0 record yet in some books they are an underdog vs a Wright State team that is 5-6 so far this year. Hmmm? The Redhawks sit undefeated because they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (364th SOS out of 365 teams!). They have yet to face a single team ranked inside KenPom’s top 200 and 6 of their 10 opponents are ranked outside the top 300 or not a D1 team. Of the 8 Division 1 teams they’ve faced, not one has more than 4 wins this season and their combined record is 22-70! This Wright State team will be by far the best team they’ve faced this season (ranked 144th). This is also the 3rd straight road game in the span of 7 days. Their last 2 games, @ UNC Asheville (ranked 237th) and @ Eastern Kentucky (ranked 270th), they won by 3 in OT and by 10. Wright State has played the much more difficult schedule (143rd SOS) and they’ve played only 4 home games and 7 on the road. They are 3-1 in their home games this season and they’ve faced 6 teams ranked 165th or higher. All but 1 of their 6 losses have been by 10 points or less and half of their losses (3) have come by 2 points or less or in OT. The Raiders are very close to having a much better record. Wright State has dominated this series winning 6 in a row, all since the start of the 2019 season. The Raiders have covered 4 of their last 5 (only non-cover @ Butler) and they are happy to be back home and in need of a win. This team is undervalued and we like them to win and cover this one on Tuesday.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee +1.5 over Louisville, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with Louisville as a 1.5 point road favorite and we’d be shocked if this didn’t flip to Tennessee favored. The Vols are in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses vs Kansas, Syracuse, and Illinois. All of those games were on the road or neutral sites and they’ve had 10 full days off to regroup and get ready for this important home. They are 5-0 this season and they are an impressive 65-5 SU at home since the start of the 2021 season. Prior to this 3 game losing streak the Vols were 7-0 including a win over National Runner Up Houston. They face the Louisville Cardinals who are 8-1 on the season with their only loss coming @ Arkansas. That was the Cards only true road game of the season and Tennessee is catching them off back to back impressive wins over Indiana and Memphis. Buy low, sell high spot in this game. Louisville relies heavily on the scoring from the arc with the highest 3 point attempt percentage in the country. That can go awry on the road at times as it did in their loss @ Arkansas where they took 37 triples and made only 8 (21%). Tonight they face one of the best defensive teams in the nation as Tennessee ranks 13th in defensive efficiency and they’ve allowed opponents to make only 29% of their triples. Tennessee should get extra opportunities on the offensive end as they corral 45% of their missed shots which ranks them #1 in the country in offensive rebounding. As we stated above, we don’t expect Tennessee to end up as a dog in this game but if this line sticks (currently +1.5) it will be the first time they’ve been a home underdog since February 8th, 2020 vs Kentucky. The Vols have not lost 4 games in a row since the 2015/16 season and we don’t expect it to happen here.

#200 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State +2.5 over Troy, Tuesday at 9 PM ET – Veteran’s Bowl @ Montgomery, AL - JSU should have a huge rushing advantage here and we always like that situation when we’re considering an underdog. The Gamecocks rank 5th in the nation averaging 258 YPG on the ground on 5.5 YPC. They have not one, but two, 1,000 yard RB’s this season. They are facing a Troy defense that ranks outside the top 100 in both YPG rushing and YPC. JSU’s YPC margin is +1.4 as they average 5.5 YPC and allow just 4.1. Now to the other side of the ball. Troy can’t run the ball. They rank 130th (out of 136) averaging only 98 YPG on the ground on a paltry 2.8 YPC (132nd). Their YPC margin is -1.9 as they average 2.8 YPC and allow 4.7. They only topped 100 yards rushing 4 times in their 12 games vs FBS opponents. On top of that, they just lost their top RB Tae Meadows who was their only back with more than 320 yards rushing this season. The Jacksonville St defense is decent vs the run allowing 148 YPG on 4.1 YPC. Troy may also be without their starting QB Crowder who was injured in the Sun Belt Championship game vs JMU. Troy was a bit of a farce this year in our opinion. They were outgained in Sun Belt play (-70 YPG) and actually lost the yardage battle in 7 of their final 8 games yet still ended up with an 8-5 record. They did play a tougher schedule than JSU but the stat splits are quite drastic with JSU having a +0.3 YPP margin while Troy was -1.0 YPP. We’ll take the dog in this one.