Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NHL play on San Jose +105 vs. Edmonton Oilers, 10pm ET - Tonight’s a prime spot for the San Jose Sharks to pull off a statement home win over the Edmonton Oilers at SAP Center. The Oilers are rolling in on the second night of a back-to-back after a chaotic, high-event overtime loss in Salt Lake City on Tuesday night—exactly the kind of altitude grind that leaves legs heavy and recovery short. The Sharks are in full desperation mode: they’re chasing every point possible with a brutal road-heavy schedule still ahead. Fresh off winning five of their last six, San Jose has the momentum and the greater sense of urgency. The Sharks are a solid 17-13 as home underdogs this season, banking over +$1,000 on the combined moneyline in those games alone. Edmonton, meanwhile, is just 12-14 as a road favorite and has lost more than $500 on the moneyline in that role. History backs the home side too—the host has taken seven of the last ten meetings overall, and the home team has won all three games between these clubs this season. The Oilers are 3-9 this season when playing without rest and tonight they’ll have a tough time keeping up to the Sharks with a day of rest.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10pm ET - The line on this game is the ‘tell’ as Cleveland should be a bigger favorite at home over the Hawks. Clearly the oddsmakers are looking to bait some bettors into backing the Cavs at a cheap price but we won’t bite. The facts of the matter are this. Cleveland is in a very favorable position in the Eastern Conference right now sitting 4th in the standings and hosting in the 1st round (potentially this same Hawks team). They trail the Knicks by 1 game but don’t want to move up so they can avoid the Celtics in the second round and play the Cunningham-less Pistons to try and make the EC Finals. Atlanta meanwhile has a lot more to play for as they sit 5th in the East but could slip into the play in tourney with a few losses. Atlanta is coming off a tough loss to the Knicks on Sunday (unfortunately we had them) where they led for a majority of the game before blowing it late. We expect a very focused effort here form a Hawks team that is playing well right now. Atlanta has the 7th best Net rating over the last 10-game period at +9.7 compared to the Cavs +4.7. The biggest contributing factor has been their defense which is 7th in defensive Net rating over that same stretch of games. The Cavs are 17th. Atlanta is the 5th best 3PT shooting team in the league, the Cavs 3PT defense is 26th. We expect a motivated Hawks team to win this game rather easily with the Cavs potentially resting everyone.

#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 (+110) over Athletics, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Yankees have won 5 of 6 as part of their 8-2 start to the season and all 8 wins have been by a multi-run margin.  The Athletics are 3-7 this season and are 0-4 against AL East teams.  This one sets up as a complete mismatch.  Yankees bullpen has a 2.86 ERA and Athletics bullpen has a 5.48 ERA.  Yankees have a .413 slugging percentage at home and the Athletic have a paltry .296 slugging percentage in road games.  The starting pitching is also a huge edge for the Yankees here.  Will Warren has a 2.70 ERA this season and had a 3.50 ERA in his home starts last season.  Also, he went 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA in his two starts against the Athletics last season as Warren dominated them.  The A's Severino is at the other end of the spectrum.  He is off to a tough start this season including having command issues.  Also, last season Severino got destroyed by his former team as he went 0-2 with a 15.26 ERA in a pair of disastrous outings against the Yankees.  This one checks all the boxes for us to go with our strongest selection yet this season!  Dominating home win in the forecast here in the Bronx Wednesday. Lay the 1.5 runs with the New York Yankees for a Top Game Wednesday.

UEFA Europa League: #224401/224402 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 (+107) Real Betis at Braga, Wednesday at 12:45 pm et – Real Betis will be ready to respond here after a scoreless draw in La Liga action. Prior to that, their last 6 matches in La Liga averaged totaling 3 goals and their most recent match in Europa League was a 4-0 win! Braga's most recent match in Europa League was also a 4-0 win and they are off a rare, low-scoring 1-0 road win in Liga Portugal action. Prior to that 1-0 victory, 8 of the last 9 Braga matches have reached a total of at least 3 goals. Our computer math model shows a strong probability of a match totaling 4 goals here and even if it lands on 3 that would still be a win for us here. Excellent line value and we will take the Over in this one.