Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASAwins NBA play on Miami Heat +4.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - We mentioned this the other day, depending on the exact circumstances, but we like to fade teams coming off extended road trips which is the case for Detroit. The Pistons were on the road for 5 straight games on the West coast which ended with a win against the Lakers. The betting markets are also telling us to back the Heat here as the line on this game is trending down despite a high volume of tickets and money on the Pistons. Detroit is 14-20 ATS as a home favorite dating back to the start of last season with a plus/minus in those games of +5.6. Miami is .500 as a road dog in that same time frame but their +/- is -3.1ppg in that scenario. The Pistons are the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.2% but the Heat allow opponents to make just 45.6% which is 4th best defensively. The Pistons rely on forcing turnovers with their defense (3rd) but the Heat take care of the basketball with the 4th best TOV% in the league. This has been a very tight series in the past with the last 4 meetings all decided by 3-points or less and two of the last four went to OT. We expect another tight game on Thursday.

#734 ASA PLAY ON Wright State -5 over UW Milwaukee, Thursday at 2 PM ET - This spot heavily favors Wright State from a situational standpoint. They have been home since mid December and this will be their 4th consecutive home game. They have some momentum coming off back to back wins over Eastern Michigan and Oakland. They’ve been off since Monday so they should be set and ready for this one. UWM, on the other hand, played an important conference home game on Monday vs IPFW, then played @ Wisconsin the next night (Tuesday), and now they are in Dayton less than 40 hours after their game vs the Badgers came to an end. The Panthers bussed to Chicago after their game vs Wisconsin and flew into Dayton early on Wednesday. On top of that, their next game is @ rival UW Green Bay. Rough scheduling spot to say the least. Milwaukee is just 1-6 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Cleveland State who ranks 323rd per KenPom and has a 2-10 record vs D1 opponents this season. Besides Wisconsin on Tuesday (20 point loss), Wright State will be the highest rated opponent UWM has faced since November. The Panthers have played the slightly better strength of schedule and have better straight FG% numbers on offense and defense as well as better efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball. Milwaukee’s shooting numbers aren’t great (286th in FG% and 275th from 3) and on the road their shooting drops significantly. We don’t expect that to change with a high probability of tired legs for Milwaukee. Wright State is hitting 52% of their shots at home while averaging 82 PPG. We like the Raiders to cover this game at home.

#262 ASA PLAY ON Indiana -7 over Alabama, Thursday at 4 PM ET @ Pasadena, CA - We have IU closer to a 10 point favorite in this game and at -7 we like the value with the Hoosiers. Alabama is living on their name right now. This team was a borderline CFP team at best and they have a number of flaws. First, they can’t run the ball at all. They rank 122nd in rushing YPG and 125 in YPC. That’s a huge problem vs an Indiana defense that is elite. The Hoosiers only allow 77 YPG rushing (2nd in the nation) so that makes the Bama offense very one dimensional in this game. In their playoff opener, we were on the Crimson Tide and got lucky. They were completely dominated by an OK, not great, Oklahoma team, who’s offense is shaky at best. OU outgained Alabama by over 100 yards and they were held to 28 yards rushing on 25 carries. The game prior to that they were dominated by UGA a team very similar to Indiana, 28-7 and held to negative 3 yards rushing. They’ll struggle to move the ball in Indiana. The Hoosiers are top 10 in both total offense and total defense and top 6 in scoring offense and scoring defense. Many still question this team’s schedule but in their 2 games vs playoff teams, they handled Oregon by 10 on the road, and then beat Ohio State, who had been #1 all season, on a neutral site. Since Cignetti took over as head coach they are 24-2 with their only losses coming last year @ OSU and @ Notre Dame, 2 teams that played for the National Championship. When comparing the key differentials of these 2 teams, it’s not close. Indiana’s PPG margin is +31 and they outgained their opponents by 215 YPG. Bama’s PPG margin is +13 and they outgained their opponents by 90 YPG. IU is simply better on both sides of the ball and they are on a mission after getting to the Playoffs last year and losing right out of the game to Notre Dame. They now know what this situation is like while the Tide did not make it to the Playoffs last year so this spot is new to many of them. We like Indiana by more than a TD in this one.

#260 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 12 PM ET @ Miami, FL - Tech has been an under the radar team for most casual observers this season. Many don’t put them in the same category as the OSU’s, Oregon’s, Indiana’s, and Georgia’s of the world. They are every bit as good as those teams and better than some. Our power ratings have Tech as a slight favorite in this game and we’re grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were 12-1 SU and a CFB leading 11-2 ATS on the season. Their only loss was @ Arizona State in a game Tech played without their starting QB and still led with under 30 seconds left. Every other game this season they won by at least 24 points. Their strength of schedule wasn’t as good as Oregon, but it wasn’t like they had any close games. They destroyed everyone. The defense is as good as there is in the country ranking 3rd in total D, 3rd in YPP allowed, and 1st in rush defense. They allowed only 11 PPG this season and when stepping up in competition they held the 3 top 25 offenses they faced this season to an average of 8 PPG. The Raiders are also a top 10 offense that is very balanced (191 YPG rushing and 290 YPG passing) and they averaged 42 PPG. Not many, if any, weaknesses on this team. While Texas Tech was destroying their opponents, Oregon lost by 10 at home to Indiana and had a number of close calls beating PSU in OT, beating Iowa by 2, and holding on to beat Washington by 12 in a game that was a 5 point margin midway through the 4th quarter. Their offense clicks by being able to run the ball (217 YPG rushing) which then opens up their passing attack. They might be one dimensional here as Tech’s defense has completely shut down opposing rushing attacks with what many consider the best defensive line in the country. The Raiders are allowing just 68 yards rushing on 2.9 YPC, both tops in the nation. While Oregon’s defense has top 10 numbers, we see them as a bit more vulnerable. In their opening round game, James Madison hit them for over 500 yards. The Ducks have faced 3 top 25 offenses this year (same as Texas Tech) and allowed 30 PPG in those games. We’ve been on Texas Tech a number of times for big plays this year and won them all. Let’s do it again on Thursday.