Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns +5.5 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10pm ET - These two teams are eerily similar and with the Suns now having Dillon Brooks back in the lineup we like them to keep this game close or win outright. In each teams most recent 5-games these two teams rank 3rd (Hornets) and 5th (Suns) in Net Rating. Charlotte has a Net rating of +14.8 in their last 5 games, the Suns are at +13.0. Rebound rate in also near even in that stretch of games as is eFG%. When if comes to efficiency differentials only almost dead even at +13.6 and +13.5. Charlotte was racking up wins left and right until their schedule stiffened in recent games as they lost to both Philadelphia and Boston as small home favorites. The Hornets are 4-5 SU in their last nine games at home against a team that is currently in a playoff position. Phoenix has covered 4 of their last five games and is 4-2 ATS their last six as a dog. They are coming off a 4-point loss to the Magic on Tuesday night and have a 20-13 ATS record this season when coming off an ‘L’. Charlotte is a solid 11-7 ATS at home as a chalk but this will be a tough cover against a Phoenix team that recently beat them by 12 in the Desert. The key advantage in this match up is the Suns 3PT shooting (9th in 3PT%) going up against a Hornets 3PT% D that is 18th. On the flip side, the Hornets are 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the league, but the Suns have the 2nd best 3PT% defense allowing just 34.6%. This has the feel of a 1 or 2-point game either way. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +4.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 10:40pm ET - This is a great situational spot to fade the Spurs and back the Clippers. San Antonio is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back as they played at Golden State Wednesday night. This is also the Spurs 3rd game in four nights, 5th game in nine days. The Spurs are on a blistering run right now but four of their last 9 wins have come against non-playoff qualifiers. We like the fact that the Clippers are off an upset home loss to the Blazers two nights ago (thank you Portland) and are focused here with playoff positioning on the line. Granted, the Spurs have incentive to win also, but catching the Thunder is a lot to ask considering OKC would need to lose several games and that’s not likely to happen. LA had won 5 straight games prior to the loss. The two prior meetings between these two teams were both decided by just 4-point each. The Clippers have the rest advantage, are highly motivated and have an 8-3 ATS record as a home dog this season. Inflation in the number and desperation have us on the Clippers.

ASA NHL play on Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 (+140) over Columbus, 7:00 pm ET Thursday - The Blue Jackets just got hammered by the Hurricanes and that game was on home ice so the test here in Carolina will be even tougher. Columbus is playing with a lot of pressure to make the post-season while the Hurricanes are well-set and even have a shot at the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference! The pressure seems to be getting to the Blue Jackets as they have lost 4 straight and now they are on the road and facing a Canes team that's last 3 wins have all been by a margin of 3+ goals! The Hurricanes have scored at least 4 goals in each of their last 6 home ice wins and they averaged scoring 5 goals in those 6 victories! The Blue Jackets have scored an average of only 1.8 goals in their last 6 games. This one sets up to be a home blowout. We lay the puck line (-1.5 goals) for a plus money return (+140) on the Hurricanes as they should dominate this match-up again.

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs (-100) – Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - Yesterday's game saw these teams combine for 22 runs!  The weather today in KC is favorable for another high-scoring game.  What is also favorable for an over is the fact that Cole Ragans had a rough spring training and the Royals lefty followed it up by getting pummeled in his first start of the season last week.  The southpaw is coming off an injury plagued 2025 and he just does not seem right early this season.  Twin starter Taj Bradley allowed 27 earned runs in 33 innings over his final 7 starts of 2025 so we are not sold on him on the basis of one good start to open up this season.  Also, Bradley is facing a Royals team that has won 3 straight and is also off its best offensive showing of the season so the confidence of KC is up.  The Twins have scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their last 5 games and both bullpens struggled yesterday.  More of the same is likely here today on Thursday!  Our computer math model projects a total of 11 to 12 runs here and even if it only gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one.  

#895/896 ASA PLAY ON Under 136 Points – West Virginia vs Stanford, Thursday at 8 PM ET - West Virginia is one of the slowest paced teams in the country ranking 363rd (out of 365) in adjusted tempo. Stanford also prefers to play at a slower pace ranking 215th in adjusted tempo and since January 1st (basically the start of ACC play for the Cardinal) they have dropped to 270th in tempo. If we look at straight average possessions the season, Stanford averages 69 (231st) and WVU averages 66 (352nd). Both defenses rank in the top 80 in opponents FG attempts per game with West Virginia ranking 22nd and Stanford 78th. Taking a look at what these teams did in conference play vs slower tempo teams (ranked 200 or lower in adjusted tempo), the Mountaineers faced 3 teams in that category (Houston, Utah, and Texas Tech) and total points scored were 117, 125, and 133 with average possessions at just 62. Stanford faced 5 teams in the ACC that had adjusted tempos of 200 or lower (Pitt, Duke, UVA, Notre Dame, and BC) and the total points scored in those games were 87, 125, 127, 130, 134, 142, and 164 points. The average possessions in those 7 games was also 62. So of those 10 games (Stanford and WVU combined) only 2 went Over tonight’s total of 136 and all were low possession games. We don’t expect many possessions here which will limit scoring opportunities for 2 offenses that aren’t great shooting teams. The Cardinal rank 271st in the country in FG% and WVU comes in at 241st in that stat. Those offenses are facing defenses that rank 17th in efficiency (WVU) and 76th (Stanford). This is a new venue for both of these teams (games in Vegas) and let’s not forget neither team has played a game in over 3 weeks. We think that affects the offenses and shooting much more than the defensive side of the ball. These 2 have combined to play 64 games this season and only 24 have gone Over the total. Under is our play here.