Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on UNDER 249 Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls, 8:10pm ET - This is one of the highest totals on the board today and we like the value after the move with the UNDER. The Bulls have some controversy surrounding them with the recent release of Jaden Ivey after his religious comments and the NBA. The NBA ratings and popularity continue to plummet with the failed leadership and their policies. I wonder if the NBA would have allowed the Spurs to waive Wemby or another superstar had they made those comments. In any regard, that certainly has to be a distraction for players on the Bulls roster heading into tonight’s game. The meat of this handicap is simple. We have two teams that play fast and don’t play defense, but both rank 23rd or worse in offensive efficiency ratings (Pacers 27th, Bulls 24th). The Pacers rank 27th in overall FG%, 19th in 3PT% and are coming off an unusually great shooting games against the Heat when they hit 53/92 FGA’s (58%) and 18/39 3’s (46%) and we don’t see them duplicating that two games in a row. Chicago is trending the wrong direction with their shooting at 34.4% from Deep (23rd) and 47.3% overall from the field which ranks 19th in the NBA over the past 5 games. The value in the number is key here as the last two games between these two teams had O/U’s of 234.5 and 235.5 and the two games finished with 223 and 225 total points. In fact, all 3 meetings this season have stayed UNDER as have 6 straight in the series. Our model projects 235.3 total points being scored. Bet UNDER.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks +17.5 at Houston Rockets, 8:10pm ET - Let’s start by saying this…I hate taking the Bucks right now as they are a very hard team to trust with Doc Rivers running the show. But, I’ll make an exception tonight as the number is higher than it should be and we expect Milwaukee to keep it relatively close and within the spread. Both teams played last night with the Rockets winning a huge game over the Knicks 111-94. Houston starters logged heavy minutes in the win with Smith Jr, Durant and Thompson all playing 34+ minutes. Milwaukee got a much needed win over the Mavericks 123-99. If you have been following the Bucks, Rivers is employing a new strategy and playing everyone around 20+ minutes so the back-to-back tonight shouldn’t be a factor. This is the largest spread the Rockets have been favored by all season long and while we feel they’ll win this game, we don’t think it’s going to be the blowout the oddsmakers are suggesting. On the season the Rockets have an average plus/minus of +4.5ppg, the Bucks are negative at -6.0ppg, both within reason for tonight’s game and this pointspread. Houston is 26-10 SU on their home court with an average margin of victory of +6.48ppg, the Bucks are 13-24 SU away from home with an average MOV of minus -7.7ppg. The O/U on this game is set at 218.5 which suggests a lower scoring game which makes covering this big number tough for Houston. We will grab the points with the Bucks.

#924 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -135 over Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 1:40 PM ET - Jacob Misiorowski gets the start here for Milwaukee and the young phenom was fantastic last season plus got post-season experience. He was not only a successful flame-thrower last season, he particularly handcuffed hitters at home. He has that going in his favor here as he gets the call Wednesday at home after also dominating the White Sox in the Brewers home opener last week Thursday. Misiorowski struck out 11 in 5 innings and continues to display fantastic stuff. Another edge for Misiorowski here is that the Rays have never faced him. That was also the case when the White Sox lineup faced him for the first time last week and, other than a solo homer Chicago only managed a ground ball single to the second baseman. Tampa Bay starts Drew Rasmussen here and he is a decent starter but he is no Misiorowski! He struck out 2 in the first inning of his first start and then registered zero strikeouts the rest of the way. The red hot Brewers will give him some problems here. The Rays have solid numbers at the plate this season but the Brewers are even stronger thus far as Milwaukee has the #1 on base percentage and #1 slugging percentage in the majors thus far. Also, the Brewers bullpen was one of the better ones in the league last season as well as the year before and they again are dominating early this season. Conversely, the Rays bullpen ERA ranks among the worst in the majors so far this season. We have to lay a modest price here but we will not hesitate as we invest in a strong home team supported by big edges in this one including solid edges with the bullpen and the starting pitching. Lay the money line price Wednesday with Milwaukee!

#891 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma -9 over Colorado, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This game is part of the Crown Tournament being played in Las Vegas. Oklahoma looks like they’ll have their entire team playing in this one while Colorado will have to deal big time player personnel losses. 3 of CU’s 4 leading scores from this season are already in the transfer portal and won’t play in this game. Starting PG Johnson and Forwards Rancik and Dak are all gone. Those 3 accounted for HALF of the Buffs points this season averaging a combined 40 PPG for a team that averaged 80 PPG. That’s tough to overcome vs a team that is already better by a decent margin in our opinion. The Sooners are 19-15 on the season but they were really good down the stretch winning 8 of their last 11 games after starting the SEC season 1-9. Not only did they win 8 of their last 11, they beat a number of NCAA tournament teams during that stretch including Vanderbilt, Missouri, Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M and 6 of those 8 wins came by double digits. 2 of their 3 losses during that stretch came by 4 points or less vs A&M and Arkansas (both tourney teams) and the other loss was @ Tennessee who just played in the Elite 8. Since the Sooners started this run back on February 7th, Torvik analytics has them rated as the 13th best team in the country during that stretch and the 3rd best offense in the country averaging 1.31 PPP. They topped 80 points in all 8 of those wins and eclipsed 90 in 3 of them. OU is one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country (36th) and facing a Colorado defense that allows opponents to shoot 37% from deep (340th nationally). The one thing they do struggle with, defensive rebounding, shouldn’t be an issue here vs a CU team that ranks 235th on the offensive glass and just lost their best rebounder (Dak) to the portal. Oklahoma has better season long efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively and those stats for CU were with their 3 key players that are now gone and they had only one Quad 1 win all season long even at full strength. OU seems to be all in on this tourney while the Buffaloes look like they are simply playing out the string. Sooners by double digits.