Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#363 ASA PLAY ON Purdue +3 over Northwestern, Saturday at 3 PM ET - This is a classic letdown spot for the Wildcats as they come off a win over Penn State as a +20-point underdog. In fact, if you are a trend player, teams off a big upset win like Northwestern fall into several negative play against systems the following week. Purdue has lost four straight games but they’ve come against USC, @ Notre Dame, Illinois and @ Minnesota. The Boilermakers put up 456 total yards last week against Minnesota and held the Gophers to 262 but still came up short on the scoreboard. Northwestern will try to rely on their ground game here which averages 4.8 yards per rush and 183 rushing yards per game. They have to, in fact, because their passing attack is atrocious averaging 181 passing yards per game (110th). That will be a problem against a Purdue defense that is better against the run than their raw statistics. PU allows 3.8 yards per rush and 129 rushing yards per game. Purdue passes for 270 yards per game with the 18th highest pass attempt average in the country at 37.2. The Boilermakers QB Browne is capable of having a big game here against a Northwestern defense with just 0.4 INT’s per game. Grab the points with Purdue and don’t be shocked with the upset.

#335 ASA PLAY ON Old Dominion +1.5 over James Madison, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for a very good ODU team as a dog. They were 2 TD favorites on the road last week vs Marshall and now getting points partly due to that result. The Monarchs were embarrassed last week losing 48-24 @ Marshall. The yardage was even but ODU had 5 turnovers (0 for Marshall) and were shut out on downs twice inside the Thundering Herd 5 yard line. Those turnovers led directly to 28 points for Marshall. Just a bad game for a really solid team and we expect a bounce back. Prior to last week, Old Dominion was 1 of 5 teams in the country that were averaging over 7.0 YPP on offense and allowing less than 4.5 YPP on defense (so elite on both sides of the ball). ODU was one of those 5 teams along with Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, and Texas Tech (elite company). The only other loss ODU has this year was @ Indiana (top 5 team?) and they hung tight in that one losing 27-14. That’s the same IU team that beat Illinois at home 63-10! James Madison is 5-1 but they’ve faced a really easy schedule (133rd SOS). The only decent team they’ve faced was Louisville and they lost that game by 2 TD’s. The other 4 FBS teams they’ve faced have a combined 8-17 record and none are currently at or above .500. JMU’s defense has solid numbers vs a bunch of poor offensive teams, but on the other side of the ball they only average 5.5 YPP (86th nationally). Compare that to ODU’s offense putting up 7.6 YPP (3rd in the nation) and we don’t think JMU can keep up. Keep in mind ODU’s defense is also top 25 in YPP allowed that includes their terrible performance last week. The Monarchs have played the much tougher schedule (72nd SOS to 133rd) and they still have much better YPG and YPP margins. The best team in the Sun Belt is off terrible loss and getting points. We’ll take Old Dominion.

#390 ASA PLAY ON Tulane -9.5 over Army, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Tulane has had this date circled all season long after losing to Army last year in the AAC Championship game. The Wave were favored by -5-points at Michie Stadium a year ago which makes today’s line a bargain. Tulane lost 35-14 last season but averaged 6.0 YPP compared to the Knights 5.9 YPP. The Green Wave botched field goal attempts after their first two drives, then fumbling a kickoff and had a pass intercepted in their own territory on the next two possessions. Army is not the team they were a year ago and Tulane is slightly better. The Wave are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS this season with signature wins over Northwestern and Duke. Last week the Wave beat East Carolina 26-19 as a -6.5-point favorite but the final score could have been much worse. Tulane had their first four drives stopped inside the 40-yard line and settled for FG’s. Tulane averaged 7.4 YPP vs. ECU and held the Pirates to 340 total yards at 4.6 YPP. Speaking of ECU…Army recently lost to the Pirates 6-28 and were thoroughly dominated by the Pirates. The Knights are coming off a pair of wins against UAB and Charlotte who are two of the worst FBS programs in the country. The pedestrian Black Knights offense (4.9YPP – 122nd nationally) will have a tough time keeping pace with the Wave (5.9 YPP) playing with a revenge mindset. Lay it with Tulane!

#413/414 ASA PLAY ON Over 60 Points - Oregon vs Rutgers, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - Weather looks perfect here for a high scoring game with temps in the 50’s light winds and no precipitation at game time. Rutgers has gone Over in 5 of their 6 games this year and the only one that did not was last week @ Washington. That total was set in the low 60’s and the 2 teams combined for 57 points with the Huskies winning 38-19. The game should have been much higher scoring as the teams combined for well over 1,000 yards, there were 2 missed FG’s, Washington fumbled on the Rutgers 19 yard line, AND Rutgers was shut out on downs at the UW 6 and 11 yard line. Even with all that they still nearly got to 60 points. Rutgers has a very good offense and their defense stinks. They average 36 PPG on 444 YPG. Their defense ranks 134th in the country allowing 7.0 YPP. They are facing an Oregon offense that averages 6.9 YPP and scores 42 PPG. This Duck offense should be out for blood this week after scoring only 1 offensive TD last week in a 30-20 home loss vs Indiana. They should light up this Rutgers D that already allowed 38 points to Iowa, who ranks 115th in total offense, and 31 points to Minnesota, who ranks 106th in total offense. Those 2 games were vs defensive minded teams with poor offenses and they totaled 66 and 59 points respectively. The Scarlet Knights are going to have to “keep up” in this game offensively if they want to have a chance and they have the offense to do just that. Over is the call.

#399 ASA FREE PLAY ON Ohio State -25 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Will Badgers score in this game? They were shutout 37-0 at home vs Iowa last week and OSU’s defense is a few notches better than the Hawkeyes. OSU is allowing just 8 PPG on the season and teams are averaging 0.85 points per drive, both #1 in the country. Wisconsin’s offense has been brutal to say the least. They are down to their 3rd string QB (transfer from Southern Illinois) and they can’t run the ball (116th nationally in YPG rushing). That makes it very tough to score and they’ve shown that can’t. This team is averaging less than 7 PPG in Big 10 play and over their last 4 games they’ve had 45 offensive possessions and scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s. Just terrible. And now they face the best defense they’ve seen this year. A defense that held Washington to 6 points, Texas to 7 points, and Minnesota to 3 points. Offensively OSU isn’t great this year but they are still very good. They still rank 19th in the country in YPP and 23rd in scoring putting up 37 PPG. They shouldn’t need to do much on offense here as Wisconsin will do next to nothing on their offensive side of the ball. OSU has scored at least in the mid 30’s in 4 of their 6 games and that should easily get it done here vs a Wisconsin defense that started out well, but has faded. The Badgers have allowed 38, 27, 24, and 37 points over their last 4 games and 3 of those offenses rank 50th or worse (total offense) including Iowa who ranks 115th yet put up 37 points last week. The Badgers put a lot of emotional effort into last week’s game vs arch rival Iowa and still got smoked. Nothing left in the tank here and OSU rolls big.