Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on OVER 225 Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans, 7:10pm ET - We are betting a value number here based on the three other meetings between these two teams this season. The first three games of this series all had O/U numbers greater than 230 and now we get a number in the mid-220’s. The most recent meeting between the two teams finished with 212 total points but the other two clashes finished with 228 and 235 (in regulation) points. It looks like the Pelicans will have either Murphy or Murray or potentially both, which clearly impacts their offense in a positive way. Murphy is averaging just under 22ppg, Murray is chipping in 17.2ppg. Houston has the 10th most efficient offense in the league at 1.175-points per possession. In their last 5 games they are averaging 118.2ppg with an eFG% of 55.7%. The Pels defense is below average on the season (24th) and in recent games (allowing 1.190ppp last 5 games) when it comes to defensive efficiency ratings. Houston is the 2nd slowest paced team on the season but have been playing at a slightly faster rate in their past 5 games. Again, this number is the main contributor in our wager as we feel Vegas had it right in their last meeting with an O/U of 230.5. This game creeps over the 225.5 today.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics +1.5 -125 at Charlotte Hornets, 6:10 pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as they look to improve seedings in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets are the league up-and-comers, while the overlooked Celtics has shocked everyone with their 49-24 record this season. The Celtics will be out for payback here as the Hornets beat them in Boston earlier this month 118-89. Boston had an unusually poor shooting night of 38% overall and just 28% from deep. Those numbers came against a slightly better than average Hornets defense so the logical regression would be for Boston to make more shots here. Plus, the Hornets are coming off a big game yesterday against the 76ers, a 4-point home loss. In fact, the Bugs have played two very big games in a row (faced the Knicks on Thursday) and will have a tough time getting up for the 3rd big game in a row, especially without rest. There is no question the Hornets are playing fantastic basketball right now with a 13-4 SU record in their last 17 games with one of the best +/-‘s in the league, but then why are they a dog in this game? Boston is 23-13 SU on the road this season with the 3rd highest margin of victory of +7.3ppg. Despite their success, the Hornets are only 19-17 SU on their home court this season, 6-14 SU as a home underdog. Boston finds a way to win this road game.

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs (-115) – Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 1:37 PM ET - 3rd straight day that these two teams are meeting as they opened the season on Friday.  Yesterday's 8-7 game went 11 innings and saw the teams use a total of 13 relievers!  Those bullpens could again be called upon early in this one.  Luis Morales had a rough spring training with the Athletics and is struggling with his command.  Remember he just came up with the A's last summer and after a solid August he faded in September.  The Blue Jays Eric Lauer is also coming off a rough spring in which he was hit hard.  Also, last season he ended up finishing up the season working out of the bullpen rather than a starter.  That's because he had a rough August working as a starter and then he ended up working out of the bullpen in September.  We expect both Lauer and Morales to see their struggles in spring training carry right into the regular season as both lineups build off solid results at the plate in yesterday's game.  Our computer math model projects a total of 11 runs here and even if it only gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.  

#633/634 ASA PLAY ON Over 133.5 Points – UConn vs Duke, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We were on the St John’s vs Duke Under on Friday but that one was set nearly 10 points higher than this total and we have a different situation in this game. In their game vs the Johnnies, we were concerned that Duke would be turnover prone vs a high pressure D which would end in a number of empty possessions for the Blue Devils. On the other end, Duke packs it in on defense and allows teams to shoot 3’s (over 45% of opponents FG attempts come from 3) and St John’s is not a great shooting team. Well, the Johnnies hit over 40% of their triples making 13 shots from deep which was 6 more than their season average. That killed the Under in that game. Now we have a much better shooting team in UConn who ranked 1st in the Big East in eFG%, 1st in 2 point FG%, and 2nd in 3 point FG%, and they have a solid chance at putting up really good numbers from deep in this game. They just made 9 of 21 from beyond the arc vs a very good Michigan State defense and will have the opportunity to eclipse that here. Their game vs the Spartans got to 130 total points (67-63 final) despite the 2 teams combining to shoot just 42% overall. In the Duke vs STJ game, they shot much better combining for 49% from the field but they also missed 13 of their 32 FTs and it still landed in the mid 150s. Surprisingly, Duke starting PG Foster returned from injury on Friday which definitely helps this offense. The Blue Devils rank 8th in the country in offensive efficiency with Foster in the lineup and they were just 24th in that metric when he was out. While both defenses are very good, let’s not discount the offenses. They both finished 1st in offensive efficiency in their respective conferences. With this total set at 133.5 (as of this writing on Saturday), if both teams get to 67, it goes Over. To put that in perspective, Duke was held under 67 points just once this season (back in early December vs Michigan State they had 66 points) and UConn was held below 67 just 4 times this season. Combined, that’s only 5 times these offenses have been held under 67 points in 74 games this season. Elite 8 Overs have been solid especially with lower totals set at 143 or less. When that happens, the Over is 59-31 in Elite 8 games since 2001. This one is set too low. We go Over.

#636 ASA PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET - The Vols caught a break in their most recent game getting to face Iowa State without their most important player, Joshua Jefferson, who was out with an ankle injury. Because of that injury to the Cyclones best big man who averaged 17 PPG and 8 RPG this year, ISU was unable to keep up on the boards which is a death sentence vs this Tennessee team. The Vols rebounded a ridiculous 53% of their missed shots which helped lead to 42 points in the paint compared to 30 for Iowa State. Tennessee was +21 overall on the glass which made it nearly impossible for ISU to stay in that game. On top of that, the normally solid shooting ISU team made only 5 of 23 from deep (21%) which was well below their season average of 38% (15th in the nation). The Cyclone shots were solid looks and in fact despite the 16 point loss, Shot Quality post game stats had ISU winning that game. The Vols thrive on the offensive glass for extra opportunities because they aren’t a great shooting team (143rd eFG% and 175th 3 point FG%). That won’t happen here. Michigan is big inside and they are a very good rebounding team. They more than held their own vs the 2 best rebounding teams in the Big 10 (Illinois and MSU) who are very comparable with Tennessee in that regard. Michigan played 3 games vs those 2 teams and had a plus rebounding margin in 2 of those games and were dead even in the other. Other than the offensive glass, where Michigan isn’t that far behind UT, the Wolverines have advantages in pretty much every other key metric. They have better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively (5th in offense & 1st in defense), better eFG%, better 3 point FG%, better FT%, better on the defensive glass, and they turn the ball over at a lower rate. Michigan is the much better team here and they’ve proven it all season vs high level teams going 19-3 in Quad 1 games while Tennessee is 8-10 vs Quad 1 teams. This line is actually a bit short in our opinion as Michigan was just favored by 9.5 (won by 13) vs an Alabama team that is nearly dead even with UT in the KenPom ratings and finished 2 games ahead of the Vols in SEC play. Tennessee was also just a 4.5 to 5 point dog vs an ISU team without their best player. We like Michigan in this spot to win and cover.