Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on OVER 208.5 Houston Rockets at LA Lakers, 8:30pm ET - This number is off significantly from our math model that is projecting 226.5 total points in this game. Granted, there is a dip in the O/U with the Lakers injuries but it shouldn’t be this drastic. Both teams are top 10 in offensive Net rating since the All-Star break with the Lakers 8th and Rockets both at 118.4. The Lakers have a defensive Net rating of 113.4 which is near league average and 14th. The Rockets have been slightly better ranking 10th at 112.4. Both have been slower in pace of play since the break but it’s not enough to warrant this low of a number. The Lakers don’t need a ton of possessions to score with an eFG% of 57.9% since the AS break. Houston has an eFG% of 55.8% since the break which ranks 14th. Ultimately this comes down to betting the number – neither of these two teams has had an O/U of 210 or less on ANY game this season. We understand the adjustment for the playoffs and no Luka for the Lakers but this haS been an over-adjustment by the oddsmakers. BET OVER.

#959/960: ASA PLAY ON Over 11 (-110) LA Dodgers at Colorado, Saturday at 8:10 ET - Don't let the big number keep you away here.  Even though it will still be cool in Denver this evening the high temperature today is near 60 whereas yesterday the temperatures were at or below freezing throughout the game. It will still be in the 50s when this game gets going around 6 pm local time.  We are aware that both teams have solid bullpen numbers this season but these teams combined for 8 runs in yesterday's game despite brutal conditions for baseball plus despite going a combined 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position.  Saturday the starting pitching match-up is perfect for an over as Ryan Feltner has struggled earlier this season and also has a much higher ERA here at Coors Field than on the road throughout his career.  As for Emmett Sheehan, he also is struggling early this season plus he has a much higher ERA on the road than at home throughout his career.  The Dodgers slugging percentage is #1 in the majors this season.  The Rockies certainly have struggled this season but at home their slugging percentage still ranks in the middle of the pack.  Colorado catcher Hunter Goodman was rested yesterday but he is expected back today and he and Mickey Moniak each have 5 homers early this season.  Goodman has a .515 slugging percentage and Moniak is at .630 so far.  The Rockies should enjoy success today as Sheehan's road struggles continue and and we also expect the powerhouse Dodgers (7 runs through first 5 innings yesterday) to do even more damage today against Feltner and the Rockies pen.  Bet the Over! 

ASA NHL play on Carolina Hurricanes -148 over Ottawa Senators, 3 pm ET - Of course the Senators command respect and have had a strong season but this is still a value money line spot for the Hurricanes in Game 1 the way we see it.  Carolina took 2 of their 3 meetings in the regular season even though 2 of the 3 games were at Ottawa.  The Hurricanes are the top seed in the East and no team in the NHL had more than their 29 home wins this season.  The Senators lost 20 of 41 road games this season.  Also, no shootout in the playoffs but yes there is OT and if this one goes to overtime note that the Senators went 3-10 in OT and the Hurricanes went 9-3 in OT in the regular season.  We are not expecting OT of course or we would not be involved here but that is an added bonus should this one go past 3 periods.  We also like the post-season experience of this Canes team and we will lay this moderate, yet very fair, price in the first game of this series. 

English Premier League #200009/200010 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-127) – Bournemouth at Newcastle, Saturday at 10 am et - The last 3 meetings between these clubs at Newcastle all have totaled 4+ goals. The price on both clubs scoring is in the -225 range here so you know that goals are expected to fly in this one. Additionally, 8 of Newcastle's last 10 matches have totaled at least 3 goals. Bournemouth has scored multiple goals in B2B matches and also in 3 of the last 5 matches on the road yet Newcastle is favored here. All signs point to a high-scoring battle here and we'll take the Over.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -5.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 6pm ET - We like the Knicks big in this one. Atlanta has put together a fun roster with some major moves this season but the Knicks have “been here and done that” already and experience will be the deciding factor in this series. The Hawks were an impressive 20-6 post All-Star break but 17 of those wins came against below .500 teams. That success has impacted the line in this game with the Hawks over-valued in this Game 1. New York had the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating in the league this season and was 7th in defensive efficiency. They had the 5th best efficiency differential in the league at +6.5. Atlanta was 14th in oEFF, 9th in dEFF with a differential of +2.3. The last meeting between these two teams was April 6th in Atlanta where the Hawks were favored by -1.5-points. The Hawks were on a roll at home (finished the season 14-2) and the Knicks came to town and won 108-105. Now New York is at home where they were 30-10 SU this season with an average margin of victory of +10ppg. The Hawks have been exposed when they go with their small lineup which means KAT and Robinson should have big games, especially on the glass. New York is the 3rd best rebounding team in the NBA overall, the Hawks are 12th. When it comes to shooting the Knicks have a decisive advantage there as well with the 8th best eFG% in the league compared to the Hawks 18th. We like the Knicks big in the opener. Bonus bet – Knicks in the series -1.5 games.