Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#20: ASA NHL Top play on Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals -120 over Vancouver Canucks, 9 pm ET - This is a fantastic situation that developed in one of the six games on the final day of the NHL regular season.  Edmonton is right now #2 in the Pacific Division which would mean they face the Ducks in Round One plus the Oilers would have the crucial home ice edge in the series.  However, the Oilers only have a 1 point lead in the standings over Anaheim as well as Los Angeles.  That means that if Edmonton loses this game and the Ducks and Kings each win their games tonight, the Oilers would suddenly plunge to the final wild card spot meaning they would be the lowest seed in the Western Conference for the NHL post-season!  Not only would that mean no home ice edge, it would also mean that the Oilers would face the league-best Colorado Avalanche!  In other words, the magnitude of this game is huge for Edmonton tonight and, unlike Anaheim and  LA, the Oilers have the advantage of home ice in their game tonight.  Not only that, they are hosting a Canucks team that has had a very rough season.  The Oilers hammered the Canucks 6-0 in the most recent meeting and also they did win 3-1 in the only meeting here in Edmonton this season.  Lay the -1.5 on the goal line here with confidence.  The Canucks did win their home finale Tuesday and might not be too excited about one more road game before the season ends.  The Oilers also have the rest edge here since they have been off since Monday.  24 of Edmonton's last 31 wins have been by at least 2 goals.  The Canucks last 21 losses have featured 17 by a margin of 2+ goals.  Vancouver has won 3 straight games but all were after regulation time and this team has only 3 regulation wins in their 27 games since late January.  The Oilers stumbled some late in the season and Draisaitl is still likely out until the 1st round of post-season but this is still an Edmonton team loaded with talent and all their recent losses have been against playoff teams and they faced a tough schedule.  This situation tonight is much more favorable for them and they won their last 3 games against non-playoff teams by a combined score of 11-3 and they roll again here against a Canucks team that had the worst record, by far, in the NHL this season. Lay it with the home team for a top game!  

UEFA Europa League: #224430 ASA PLAY ON Nottingham Forest Goal Line Pick'em (-140) over Porto, Thursday at 3 pm et – The 1st Leg was a 1-1 battle and we love the value with the home side here on the goal line in the 2nd Leg.  With this goal line at a pick'em that means even if this match is a draw and has to be decided in AET (added extra time) we would still avoid a loss and get a push with this selection.  We do, of course, expect Nottingham Forest to handle business here without added extra time but just want to mention the added value of the pick'em on a goal line selection.  Nottingham has outscored Porto 3-1 in their last two meetings and Porto comes into this one off a 3-1 win in their league action but we like the Premier League side over the Liga Portugal side and feel we have the more talented team plus have them on their home pitch and at a value offering! 

#958 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 (-120) over Los Angeles Angels, Thursday at 1:35 PM ET - The Angels might use an opener here and then the bulk of the work could go to Sam Aldegheri.  The fact is that LA is in a bind right now with their pitching rotation and this will be a tough match-up for them.  Aldegheri has a 10.80 ERA in his 3 minor league starts this season and he is 1-4 with a 6.41 ERA in his 7 appearances (5 starts) at the MLB level.  No matter who the Angels use here on the mound they are in trouble as they are unlikely to score enough to keep up.  The Angels have been playing better than expected recently, though they lost 5-4 yesterday, thanks to the longball.  However, Max Fried gets the start here for the Yankees and he has not allowed a homer in his 4 starts this season.  Fried is off to a great start this season (as per usual) and this is after he went 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA last season.  The Yankees are a big money line favorite here at home and so we turn to the run line for solid value on this one.  The Yankees ride the momentum of last night's walk-off win and they win this one by a big margin thanks in part to the pitching mismatch here in the Bronx Thursday afternoon.  Lay the 1.5 runs Thursday with the New York Yankees

#965/966 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs (-105) – Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 1:40 PM ET - Yesterday's game was low-scoring but this followed a high-scoring battle Tuesday and we expect a return to that type of game here on Thursday.  The Brewers Brandon Sproat is winless in his 3 appearances and has a 10.45 ERA along with a 2.32 WHIP! Yes, he is allowing an average of 2.32 baserunners per inning!  As for the Blue Jays Patrick Corbin, Toronto was desperate so they gave the 36-year old veteran a try and there is a reason he was still a free agent as of April 3rd when they brought him on board!  He just does not have it anymore and he is on a 40-81 run since the 2020 season and his ERA was north of 5.00 the past 6 seasons combined!  Corbin got his first chance last week with the Jays and he allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings.  We expect more of the same here!  4 straight Toronto games (and 3 of last 4 Milwaukee games) totaled 10+ runs prior to yesterday's pitchers duel.  Our computer math model projects a total of 10 to 11 runs here and even if the game lands on 9 that is still a winning ticket for us. Bet the Over in this one.