Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -10.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:40pm ET - It’s the last day of the regular season which can be tough to navigate without knowing exactly who or who isn’t going to play. In this game we know the Nuggets are sitting everyone that matters. They have their top 9 players listed as out for today’s game and will end up the #4 seed in the Western Conference. The Spurs don’t technically have anything to play for either, other than sending a message to Denver who they’ll likely face in the second round of the playoffs. San Antonio is young and has a deep roster so even when they sit starters later in this game it shouldn’t matter as we’re betting they have a big lead at that point and the guys off the bench are much better than Denver’s reserves. In fact, the Spurs have the #1 bench rating in the league at +6.6, the Nuggets are 15th at -3.8. Since the All-Star break the Nuggets are 23-3 SU with the best average +/- in the league at +13.5ppg. The Nuggets are 17-8 SU in that same time frame and plus +6.8ppg. San Antonio has won 13 or their last fourteen home games by an average of +12.8ppg. Denver hasn’t been great away from home lately with a 5-6 SU record in their last eleven road games. Given who’s playing we expect this to be a very ugly game for Denver from start to finish. Lay it with the Spurs.

ASA NHL play on Montreal Canadiens -100 at New York Islanders, 6 pm ET Sunday - The Islanders are a loss away from being eliminated from the playoff race and they are the more desperate side here. However, the Canadiens are fighting hard to finish #2 in the Atlantic Division. Currently they are tied on points with the Lightning but the Bolts have the tiebreaker. This means that if the season had ended Saturday Tampa Bay would have the home ice edge over Montreal in their first round series. The point is that this is an important game for Montreal as well and yet it is the Islanders side that is undoubtedly playing with more pressure on their shoulders. That being said, this is a very generous offer to back a solid Canadiens team and lay little to no juice! Montreal, since mid-December, is 15-4 when coming off a loss and they are coming off a defeat versus Columbus. The Habs had won 10 of 11 prior to that loss. The Islanders are coming off a 3-0 loss to Ottawa and have lost 5 straight games against playoff-level teams and they lost those games by an aggregate score of 23-10. Hiring Peter DeBoer (1-1 so far with a win over the downtrodden Leafs) will prove to be too little too late for the Isles and they lose today to end their post-season hopes. Grab the road team here!

English Premier League #200165/200166 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-120) – Manchester City at Chelsea, Sunday at 11:30 am et - Both clubs are off huge wins in English FA Cup action and will look to replicate the goal-scoring success in a long-time rivalry battle here.  Chelsea has some absences but the Blues are going to take advantage of home pitch here and still have solid depth to rely upon.  Also helping their cause is that Manchester City has some defensive injuries as some defenders for the Citizens are out for this match.  The Blues needed that big win over Port Vale to get some confidence back and they now host a City side that has scored 6 goals in its last two matches.  Manchester City has scored an average of 2.5 goals in the last 4 meetings between these clubs.  On the other side, Chelsea manager Liam Rosenior knows his team must perform well here as he has been feeling the pressure.  Home pitch and rejuvenated by a blowout win in FA Cup action should see the Blues score well here but Manchester City matches them in a possible 2-2 stalemate the way we see it playing out.  Over gets the call at Stamford Bridge Sunday. 

ASA NBA play on UNDER 243 Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat, 6:10pm ET - Both teams have incentives to win this game to potentially improve their standing in the Eastern Conference playoff seeding, but health/rest is nearly as important. In other words, we should have a ‘playoff like’ atmosphere AND could get shortened rotations for the starters, both factors clearly favor a lower scoring game. In the season series these two teams have scored 225, 242 and 237 total points. In the game that reached 242 total points the Hawks had an exceptional shooting night from deep hitting on 21/50 3-point attempts (42%). That number is significantly higher than their season average of 37.1% and what the Heat allow on the season at 35.8%. Both teams have played fast all season long, but their pace numbers have been slowing in recent weeks. Both teams are near average on the season in offensive efficiency with the Heat ranking 13th in offensive efficiency, the Hawks are 14th. Both are better defensively with the Hawks ranking 8th in dEFF, the Heat rank 12th. Given the history of this series with 10 straight games finishing with 242 or less points and the playoff intensity, we expect a lower scoring affair in the low 230’s. Our model is projecting 232.3. Bet UNDER.