Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs (-115) – New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - Even though it will be cool in LA this evening and both teams are off low-scoring efforts, there is a reason this total is holding at 8.5 runs today on Monday.  This is a battle of southpaws and not only are the Dodgers slugging well overall, they are also #1 for slugging percentage in the majors versus lefties and note too that the Mets are #5 for slugging percentage versus lefties.  This is out of 30 teams and we are expecting both teams to hit the ball very well tonight.  David Peterson has regressed from the strong 2024 season he had. He had a modest 4.22 ERA last season and he is winless with a 6.14 ERA in his 3 starts this season and now faces the top slugging team in the majors.  The Dodgers Justin Wrobleski has a 4.74 ERA in his 34 games (9 starts) in his MLB career and he gave up 3 earned runs in 4 innings versus light-hitting Cleveland in his first start. Then he walked 4 and struck out only 2 in his 2nd start.  We expect more struggles in his 3rd outing of the season as the Mets again pound a lefty in this one. The Dodgers are off a low-scoring loss but this followed a stretch in which 6 of their 8 games totaled at least 9 runs.  The Mets are off a 1-0 loss but this followed an 11-6 loss and the runs will again flow here.  New York has scored an average of 8 runs in their last 3 road games.  Our computer math model projects a total of 11 runs here and even if it only gets to 9 or 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. Bet the Over in this one.  

#53/54 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6 Goals (-110) - Minnesota Wild at St Louis Blues, Monday at 8 PM ET - Great spot for goals!  The Wild are already locked into their playoff seed and will be facing the Stars in the first round of the playoffs.  Minnesota is not able to overtake Dallas for home ice in the series either.  In other words, the only incentive here is simply to play well and execute well in advance of the post-season.  The Wild have lost B2B games so we fully expect an emphasis on the offensive end here.  They were just held to one goal at Nashville and this followed a stretch in which 6 of 8 Wild games reached a total of at least 7 goals.  Minnesota scored at least 3 goals in all 8 games and they scored an average of 4 goals in those 8 games!  The Wild allowed 3.5 goals in those 8 games.  With Wallstedt having gotten the start against Nashville as well as the fact he has not made starts in consecutive games in 3 months, we expect Gustavsson in goal here as the goalie rotation continues.  Even if Wallstedt starts we still like the over but it is very likely to be Gustavsson and then Wallstedt would start tomorrow's game.  Gustavsson has allowed at least 3 goals in 6 of his last 8 starts and at least 4 goals in 4 of his last 5 starts!  Also, in each of his last 4 starts Gustavsson has allowed 4 or 5 goals in all 4 starts!  The Blues are eliminated from the post-season so they will simply be focused on finishing well.  They have recently been scoring much better and have scored 4+ goals in half of their last 8 games.  A couple of rare exceptions were against a Winnipeg team known for defense and goaltending as well as a Colorado team that was the top team in the NHL this season and has recently clinched the Presidents Trophy for the regular season.  Now St Louis faces a Wild team that will be happy to play an open-ice style here as their playoff seeding is set.  The Blues will again have an attack-minded approach just like they did in their 5-3 win over Chicago this weekend and we like the fact there is no pressure on either the Blues or the Wild in this game and that sets up well for plenty of scoring.  This game shows the highest probability of finishing in a range of 7 to 9 goals per our computer math model.  Over for a strong top game here! 

Italian Serie A - #201258 ASA PLAY ON Fiorentina (+135) over Lazio, Monday at 2:45 PM ET - This match is much more important to Fiorentina as they are working hard to avoid falling down into the relegation zone. Both clubs are missing some players for this match but the personnel losses for Lazio are more significant and this includes their top goalie Ivan Provedel. Also, their captain Mattia Zaccagni remains out. The guy that Lazio prefers at central striker also is out for this match as Daniel Maldini is not available. Fiorentina has one ugly road loss in their last 6 matches in Serie A but the aggregate score of the other 5 matches was 7-2 in favor of them. Lazio, on the other hand, has allowed 8 goals in its last 6 matches in Serie A. Fiorentina is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings and scored 2 goals in all 3 wins as well as in the lone draw. They continue their series dominance with another victory here and we like the value of the plus money pricing here on the 3-way line.