Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#716 ASA PLAY ON Southern Illinois -13.5 over Little Rock, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for SIU. The Salukis are a very good team, but their record doesn’t show that. They are 3-4 on the season with all of their losses coming away from home vs top 160 teams. They’ve been on the road since November 7th and played only 2 home games this season and came away with 2 easy wins. Their most recent 2 losses came away from home vs top 100 teams UAB (lost by 8) and Memphis (lost by 16). We were on Memphis in that game as it set up perfectly to take the Tigers. Today we like SIU back at home in a must win game. They’re facing Little Rock who will be playing their 6th consecutive road game. The Trojans are 1-4 in those 5 road games leading up to this one with their only win coming @ Ball State (ranked 298th) who is 1-4 vs D1 teams. 3 of their 4 losses during this stretch have come by at least 20 points. They turn the ball over at a ridiculous 26% rate (worst in CBB) and they aren’t a good rebounding team (outside the top 200 in offensive and defensive boards). SIU is top 70 in the nation in both offensive and defensive FG%. Little Rock is 175th in offensive FG% but their defense has been a sieve ranking 343rd in defensive FG% and 360th in 3 point FG% allowed. They’ve also allowed 89 points or more in 3 of their 5 games vs D1 opponents. The one thing the Trojans have done well is shoot the 3. They have hit 43% of their triples, which isn’t sustainable, and despite that they are 1-4 on the season (vs D1 opponents) and they’ve been blown out 3 times. If they don’t hit a high number of triples today this one could get ugly. We’ll lay it.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -3.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 8:10pm ET - We absolutely love the Heat in this situation with a massive scheduling advantage over the Pistons. Detroit is coming off a huge game last night against Orlando and now travel to Miami for their 3rd game in four days. The Pistons played 4 straight road games, then went home for Orlando and are now back on the road to face the Heat who have been off for 2 days. Detroit had ripped off 13 straight wins but have now lost 2 straight. Detroit has the 7th best efficiency differential on the season in the NBA at 6.4. In the Pistons last 5 games their eDIFF has improved to +7.6. The Heat are quietly flying under the radar right now and are a serious contender in the Eastern Conference. Miami has won 5 straight games by an average +13.4ppg. In that 5-game stretch the Heat have an eDIFF of +12.6 and are +5.4 on the season. Detroit has some good road numbers but the Heat at home are 9-1 SU with an average /- of plus +6.9ppg. Miami will force tempo here and play fast and the weary Pistons will have a tough time keeping up. Lay it with Miami.

English Premier League #200005/200006 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-120) – Leeds United at Manchester City, Saturday at 10 am et - Leeds United is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Though the visitors should find the back of the net in this one, they are massive underdogs for a reason and we project a 3-1 type of blowout here. Manchester City is known for responding big when off a disappointing result and this is particularly true when at home. With Manchester City off B2B losses - one in Champions League and one in Premier League - they are sure to be in 'attack mode' here at home versus Leeds. Manchester City has averaged scoring 4 goals in the last 4 meetings with Leeds and note that Leeds United has scored a goal in each of the last two meetings and we expect a solid result here. Leeds has scored 10 goals in the last 8 matches but also allowed 2.1 goals per match in the last 7 matches and now, like we said, are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Prior to the B2B losses, Manchester City had scored at least 3 goals in 4 straight matches and we expect them to respond here with another effort along the lines of those big wins!

#422 ASA PLAY ON BYU -17.5 over Central Florida, Saturday at 1 PM ET - The most recent Playoff committee rankings came in a few days ago and BYU sits at 13th just outside of the top 12 who make the playoffs. They need a big win with some style points added on in their home finale on Saturday. We think they’ll pick up an easy win in this one. They are coming off a double digit win @ Cincinnati in a game where they dominated the trenches outrushing the Bearcats 265 to 87. The BYU defense was on the field for only 61 snaps (and only 57 the week before vs TCU) so they should be fresh here. BYU is 5-0 at home with 4 wins coming by at least 14 points. The only team that didn’t roll over at home was Utah as they topped the rival Utes by 3. Their most recent home game was an absolute blasting of a good TCU team 44-13 outgaining the Horned Frogs 447 to 298. They are taking on a simply not very good UCF team that had lost 6 of their previous 7 before getting a tight 3 point home win vs a bad Oklahoma State team (1-10 record) last week. The Knights never led in that game until under 1:00 minute remaining in the game. UCF has been a terrible road team this year and this is a long travel game for them. They are 0-4 away from home this year and in those games they’ve scored 3, 9, 11, and 20 points. They are averaging just 4.6 YPP on the road compared to 5.8 YPP at home. UCF has gotten rolled by an average score of 33-11 away from home while BYU is winning by an average score of 40-12 at home. This one will get ugly and BYU won’t let up as they need to take advantage of every statement they can make to the Playoff committee.

#392 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State -17 over Colorado, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Big final home game for KSU as they need a win to become bowl eligible. They’re playing a Colorado team that looks like they’ve tanked it on the year losing 6 of their last 7 with 3 of their last 4 losses coming by 25+ points. Last week the Buffs played their final home game and got rolled 42-17 by an Arizona State team that has been playing without their starting QB and best offensive player Leavitt. The Devils didn’t even really need a QB in last week’s win as they rushed for 355 yards 8 YPC. It wasn’t a one off as CU ranks 135th (out of 136 teams) stopping the run. They’ve been dominated in the trenches week in and week out. That’s a problem here. That’s because KSU loves to run the ball and put up a whopping 472 yards on the ground on 11.2 YPC last week vs a very good Utah team. The Cats outplayed the 9-2 Utes on the road, which very few teams do, leading by 12 in the 4th quarter before losing by 4. That loss makes this game very important for Kansas State. The Buffs offense can’t run (120th in rushing) so they rely on the pass. They will be sitting freshman QB Lewis here, who has started the last 2 games, to preserve his redshirt. Opposing QB’s have completed just 57% vs this KSU defense and we’re expecting cold and windy conditions in Manhattan KS on Saturday which would be bad news for an already shaky CU offense that can’t run. The Cats should easily control the trenches here on both sides of the ball and wear out a Colorado team that might not put up much of a fight. We’ll lay it and watch KSU dominate this game.

#442 ASA PLAY ON Hawaii -7.5 over Wyoming, Saturday at 11 PM ET - The Cowboys lost a heartbreaker at home last weekend which dropped them to 4-7 and out of bowl contention. They lost 13-7 as a 6.5 point home favorite to Nevada. The Wolfpack, who were 1-8 vs FBS teams entering the game, outgained Wyoming and dominated the ground game 213 yards rushing to 68. A Nevada fumble led to a 21 yard TD drive which was the Cowboys only points of the game. After the game, starting RB Sam Scott summed up the feeling in the locker room, “Devasted is the word”. We don’t think Wyoming will be able to make this long travel and “get up off the mat” so to speak for this now meaningless game. The offense is really struggling scoring a grand total of 17 points over their last 3 games, all losses. They’ve actually struggled all year ranking 118th in YPP (5.1) and 126th in scoring (17.8 PPG). They’ve even been worse on the road where they average just 12 PPG. They’ve scored just 3 TD’s in their last 13 quarters of football. They only topped 17 points 3 times this year in conference play and those were vs defenses ranked 109th, 124th, and 129th. Hawaii may not have to do much offensively to cover this number. The Rainbows will be plenty motivated here coming off their worst conference showing of the season losing @ UNLV 38-10. The defense has been very solid all year and will have a chip on their shoulder here after that performance which won’t be good for the Cowboys who are bad offensively. In their 6 home games this D has allowed just 292 YPG and 16 PPG. On offense, the Bows average 31 PPG at home and they are 5-1 on the island. In their most recent home game, they smoked the best team in the MWC, San Diego State, by a final score of 38-6. The Rainbows, with a 7-3 record, will be going to a bowl game for the first time since 2020. They’ve had an extra day to prepare (played last Friday and Wyoming played Saturday) and will want to go out on a high note on Senior Day before they play in their bowl game. The game is a sellout so the atmosphere for this home game should be good. Let’s lay it.

#438 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -13.5 over Oregon State, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - This is a revenger from a few weeks ago when Washington State traveled to Oregon State and lost 10-7 as a 3.5 point favorite. Wazzu dominated the stats (+100 yards) and outgained the Beavers by +1.5 YPP in that loss. The Cougars had 2 turnovers in the game (0 for OSU) and they were shutout on downs twice inside Beaver territory. Washington State bounced back from that loss with an easy 28-3 win the following week at home vs La Tech (we were on Wazzu in that one). They lost last week at James Madison, who is 10-1 and fighting for a potential playoff spot. However, the Cougars played very well in that game and led JMU 20-17 midway through the 4th quarter before falling 24-20 as a 14.5 point dog (JMU had a pick 6 so only 17 points scored offensively). With that loss, this game becomes ultra important as a win gets them to bowl eligible. This team is better than their record. They’ve played a tough schedule traveling to Ole Miss, Virginia, and James Madison and losing those games by a combined 9 points! Those teams currently have a combined record of 29-4 and Wazzu gave them all a run for their money and on the road none the less. At home the Cougs are 4-1 with their only loss coming vs Washington. They’ve beaten the top team in the MAC here handily (beat Toledo 28-7) and creamed the best team the Mountain West at home (beat San Diego State 36-13). While Washington State is fighting for a bowl game, the Beavers are just 1-9 vs FBS teams this year with their win coming vs Wazzu. They are also in the process of searching for a new coach (just named an Alabama assistant as their new head coach – this has been a distraction for both players and coaches). The Beavs are 0-4 on the road and their average score away from home is 36-14 while getting outgained 496 to 300 YPG. They’ll struggle here offensively vs a Washington State D that held them to 184 total yards a few weeks ago and OSU punted on 10 of their 12 possessions. The Cougs have held 6 of their 11 opponents to 13 points or less. WSU has been outstanding on defense holding James Madison to 24 points last week (they average 40 PPG), Toledo to 7 points (they average 32), Ole Miss to 24 points (they average 37) and UVA to 22 points (they average 34). The Cougars have been waiting for this rematch for a few weeks and they shouldn’t have to go crazy on offense to cover this game as we expect OSU to do next to nothing. We like Washington State to win this one easily.

#389/390 ASA FREE PLAY ON Tulsa -8.5 over UAB, Saturday at 3 PM ET - UAB is 3-8 on the season and coming off 2 straight home losses. They’ve lost 7 of their last 8 games with 6 of those losses coming by at least 18 points. The one game they did win was the week they fired head coach Trent Dilfer which game them the unexplainable “1 game boost” after firing a coach. We think this team has tanked it and they are just playing out the string. Talk about distractions, UAB has taken the cake on that. Prior to last week’s final home game vs USF, one of their players stabbed 2 teammates and it being charged with attempted murder. It looks like those players will be OK but the vibe in the locker room can’t be great to say the least. Tulsa, on the other hand, is playing hard and playing well to close out the season. Two weeks ago they topped Oregon State here by 17 points and last week they went to Army and beat the Cadets in their final home game as a double digit underdog. The Golden Hurricane should control the trenches here as they run the ball very well (32nd in the nation in rushing YPG) and they are facing a UAB defense that ranks 114th against the run. If Tulsa is beating up on UAB in the trenches, we see the Blazers possibly calling it quits if they get down. The host also has some extra motivation here after losing 59-21 as a 3 point dog @ UAB last season. Neither team is going to a bowl game, however Tulsa is at home and still playing hard to close out the season. We like them to cover this one.