Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on OVER 222.5 Boston Celtics at LA Clippers, 9:40pm ET - These two teams have been stellar on the defensive side of the court but the offenses have been even better of late. For the season the Celtics rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency ratings at 1.218 points per possession. The Clippers are 12-21 SU on the season but have the 11th best oEFF at 1.160PPP. In their last 5-games the Clippers oEFF is off the charts at 1.325PPP which is best in the league. Boston stays consistent with the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating over the last 5 games at 1.229PPP. The Celtics have the 7th best eFG% in the NBA at 56%, the Clippers are 11th at 55.2%. Both teams are shooting better than their season numbers over their last 5-games too. The oddsmakers are suggesting this game will finish 11-points less than an average NBA game this season but with how these offenses are playing this one gets to that 232 range.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 237.5 Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls, 7pm ET - Both teams come into this game having played last night and will be unrested. Each is also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six. In recent years, teams playing without rest have favored the UNDER and tonight we have two teams involved in that trend. Last night the Bulls didn’t play at their typical high rate but scored 121 points as a result of shooting 50% from the field overall and 34% from Deep. Charlotte also put up 121 points against the Bucks last night, and like the Bulls, had a very good shooting night of 49% overall and 45% from beyond the arc. Chicago’s pace of play for the season is 2nd fastest in the league at 102.7 but in their most recent 5 games that number has dipped slightly to 101.5. The Bulls are also shorthanded, so depth becomes a concern. Charlotte is 23rd in pace of play at 98.9 possessions per game and has been slower yet in their last 5 games at 96.2. Given the difficult scheduling situation that both teams are in, we expect a much lower scoring game than the oddsmakers are suggesting.

#770 ASA PLAY ON UC San Diego -2.5 over Hawaii, Saturday at 10 PM ET - We’re getting a really good team, off a loss, at home with a low number in this one. UCSD is 11-3 on the season and 8-3-1 ATS. They should be extra motivated in this game coming off a rough road loss @ Cal Poly as a 9 point favorite. The Tritons led nearly the entire game and actually never trailed in the 2nd half until Cal Poly took a 66-65 lead with 18 seconds left in the game and won 67-65. UCSD didn’t score a single point over the last 3:49 in that loss. We expect a big bounce back at home where they have won 32 of their last 37 games. Hawaii is 11-2 on the year but they’ve played the 2nd easiest schedule in college hoops thus far. They have 1 win vs a top 200 team and the 2 top 100 teams they played they lost to both. Compare that to San Diego who has 6 wins vs top 200 teams this season. On top of that, Hawaii has played 11 home games, where they obviously have a huge advantage over opponents who have to make the long travel, and only 2 road games. Their most recent game was an easy win @ a bad UC Riverside team and now the Rainbows had to stay stateside to face UCSD 48 hours later. To give you an idea of how easy Hawaii’s schedule has been, thus far they’ve faced the 353rd most difficult schedule of offensive teams and the 362nd most difficult schedule of defensive teams. Even with that, the Tritons have been the better shooting team overall and from beyond the arc this season despite playing the much more difficult slate. The Rainbows have beaten 2 teams this season that currently have a winning record (Utah Tech is 9-7 & UC Davis is 8-5) and the combined record of the teams they’ve beaten is 54-78. UCSD was favored by 15.5 vs Hawaii here at home last year and won by 39 points. Now we’re getting them near a pick-em. We’ll gladly take UC San Diego in this game.

#756 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -7.5 over Wyoming, Saturday at 8 PM ET - These 2 MWC teams have the same record at 10-3 yet New Mexico has played a strength of schedule nearly 200 spots higher than Wyoming (319th SOS for Wyoming & 126th for the Lobos). We’re also getting a very good New Mexico team coming off a loss @ Boise State in a game Shot Quality metrics had the Lobos winning the game. Now we get them back at home where they are 8-0 this season and 24-1 since the start of last year. The Lobos already have 3 top 100 wins crushing a very good Santa Clara team here at home (98-71), beating Mississippi State on a neutral court, and topping a very good VCU team on the road. Wyoming’s best win on the season was vs South Dakota State who ranks 177th per KenPom. They are 0-3 vs top 150 teams losing to Texas Tech, Sam Houston State, and Grand Canyon. It’s the Cowboys 2nd straight road game after beating a bad Air Force team (ranked 328th) on the road Tuesday night 68-56. Air Force was able to keep the game fairly close (trailed by 5 with 3:00 remaining in the game) despite getting outscored by 13 points from the FT line and by a whopping 27 points from beyond the arc. AF only made 1 of their 12 three point shots. Based on those 2 things alone that game should have been a blowout and Wyoming was unable to pull away. The Cowboys have decent, not great, numbers ranking 110th in offensive efficiency and 84th in defensive efficiency but they’ve faced a schedule where their offensive opponents have an average efficiency rating of 301st and an average defensive efficiency rating of 332nd. The Lobos have similar offensive numbers ranking 119th in offensive efficiency and much better defensive numbers ranking 46th in defensive efficiency. That’s vs a schedule with an average offensive efficiency rating of 110th and an average defensive efficiency ranting of 132nd. The Lobo defense is very good at creating turnovers (64th nationally) and they should have a big edge at the FT line where they make 77% and are facing a Wyoming D that allowed opponents to score almost 30% of their points from the charity stripe this season (2nd worst in the nation). We like the Lobos to bounce back for a double digit win tonight.

#610 ASA PLAY ON Wake Forest -5.5 over Virginia Tech, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Wake is in desperate need of win after back to back losses vs Vandy & NC State, both top 25 teams per KenPom. While the Deacs are in must win mode, they catch Virginia Tech is a perfect spot coming off a triple OT home win vs arch rival Virginia on Wednesday night. Va Tech hasn’t been away from home in over a month and their only true road game this season was an OT win @ South Carolina who ranks as the worst team in the SEC per KenPom. If we look at the Hokies entire away from home resume (away & neutral) they are 3-2 with 2 of their 3 wins coming in OT and the other win by 2 points all vs teams rated below this Wake Forest team. The 2 times they had to step up in class away from home vs teams ranked inside the top 70, they lost by double digits vs St Mary’s and VCU on neutral courts. Wake sits with a 9-5 record but they’ve played a very tough schedule with all 5 of their losses coming vs teams in the top 55 and 4 of those losses coming vs teams in the top 25. They took Michigan (#1 per KenPom) and Texas Tech (#21) to the wire losing each but just 1 point. In case you haven’t noticed, that’s a Michigan team that’s been destroying high level teams beating Gonzaga by 40, USC by 30, Auburn by 30, and Villanova by 28. The Demon Deacons gave them they best game they’ve had all season. Tech has good shooting numbers on the season but they’ve faced a schedule who’s average defensive efficiency rank is 255th. Now they face a very good WF defense that is 43rd in efficiency and ranks 39th guarding the arc and those numbers have come against offensive opponents that average 52nd in efficiency. Offensively WF can score averaging 82 PPG and 87 PPG at home. If they need to salt this one way late from the FT line they hit 76% as a team. We like how this one sets up for Wake Forest and we’ll lay the points.

ASA NFL play on Seattle Seahawks -1.5 at San Francisco 49ers, Saturday 8:00pm ET - The line on this game is telling us who to bet on and it’s the Seahawks. This number opened with the Niners the favorite, yet with more money and tickets on San Francisco it steamed to the Seahawks as the road favorite. The 49ers offense has played light’s out in recent weeks with 37, 48 and 42 points in their previous three games. The problem is the defense for San Francisco has hemorrhaged yards and points in that same 3-game stretch. Seattle rolls into this game on a 6 game winning streak and has been outstanding on the road this season with a 7-1 SU record. The big difference between these two teams is their defenses. San Francisco has been below average in most key metrics for most of the season. They allow the 19th most total yards per game at 339ypg, rate 24th in yards per play allowed at 5.8YPP and get exploited through the air allowing 235 passing yards per game (25th). In their last 3 games the Niners numbers are worse, allowing 353ypg and 6.3YPP. Seattle on the other hand is the #2 overall rated defense in the NFL. The Seahawks allow just 293ypg (6th) at 4.8YPP (1st) while giving up just 18.1ppg on the season. The offenses for both teams have near identical numbers with both top 10 in total yards per game and yards per play with each scoring more than 27ppg. Seattle QB Darnold can struggle when pressured which won’t be the case Saturday. The 49ers are 32nd or last in the league in sack percentage and sacks per game. The edge for Seattle’s defense is the difference here.