Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

Don't miss ASA's 10* BIG TEN TOTAL DOMINATION BEST BET tonight!  They have are on an IMPRESSIVE 61-42 Run on CBB Top Totals dating back to last season...

ASA PLAY ON Over 140 Points - Denver vs South Dakota, Wednesday at 8 PM ET

Let’s start with this. The Summit League is one of the highest scoring and fastest paced overall conference in the country. The Summit is 1st in efficiency at 1.097 points per possession, 8th in tempo and 1st in EFG% offense. Denver and South Dakota are what we deem ‘average’ team in the conference and the ‘average’ points scored in a league game this year is 153 total points per contest. The Coyotes look to secure a tourney berth with a home win tonight. Denver is fighting just to get in. The Pioneers rank 31st in 3-point field-goal percentage, 4th in the conference. Denver averages 1.059PPP on the year and have shot an average of 46.4% their last five games while putting up 76PPG. The big problem for the Pioneers is their defense which is last in the Summit in DEFF while giving up nearly 79PPG. In their last five games they’ve allowed opponents to shoot over 50% while scoring an average of 87.2PPG. South Dakota just played Western Illinois who is very similar to Denver and those two teams put up 147 total points. In their last three games the Coyotes have had 5 double-digit scorers meaning you never know who exactly is going to be their main scorer on any given night. SDak has averaged 74PPG at home this year while allowing 73.6PPG on their home court. Vegas had the opening total closer to the correct number when it opened, and we now have added value with the drop. We are projecting 150.7 total points in this contest. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 128 Points - Northwestern @ Ohio State, Wed at 8:30 PM ET

These are two of the least efficient offensive teams in the Big Ten (OSU 11th & Northwestern 14th) and both are currently in big time slumps on that end of the court.  Northwestern has made only 37% of their shots over the last 5 games and they are averaging just 57 PPG during that span.  They rank dead last in the Big Ten (conference games) averaging just 60 PPG.  Over their last 6 games the Cats have topped 56 points just once and that was vs an up tempo Iowa team (2nd in Big Ten tempo) that is poor defensively (14th in conference in defensive efficiency).  Ohio State hasn’t been much better.  Over their last 5 games the Buckeyes have made only 42% of their shots and they are averaging 61 PPG.  They have been held to 56 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games.  OSU ranks 12th in the Big Ten (conference games) in scoring putting up only 64 PPG.  Defensively these teams are far ahead of the offenses.  They both rank in the top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency and in the top 35 nationally in eFG% defense.  Both teams are slower paced (257th and 298th nationally) and neither gets to the FT line very often (12th and 10th in the Big Ten in FTA/FGA).  Ohio State may also be a bit undermanned tonight as starting guard CJ Jackson (13 PPG) injured his ankle over the weekend @ Michigan State and is not at 100%.  He may play, but it looks like he will be limited if he does.  We don’t see either of these struggling offenses getting back on track tonight and we envision a defensive grinder.  This total opened at 124 and has pushed up to 128 and we agree with the oddsmakers number.  The value is on the UNDER here and we’ll play it. 

ASA 9* PLAY ON UNDER: Chicago at Detroit, Wednesday at 7:35 PM ET

Believe it or not there is playoff pressure here. Yes the suddenly hot Blackhawks are very much alive in the race for a post-season spot. Chicago is off an absolutely crazy 8-7 win over Ottawa Monday. However, prior to that game the Blackhawks had held 7 of their last 9 opponents to 3 or less goals. They have been better defensively and in between the pipes than what their over trend would lead you to believe. They are visiting Detroit Wednesday and the Red Wings have allowed 3 or less goals in 7 of their last 8 games. This total has climbed as high as a 7 in some spots but an even greater value is with the under 6.5 at a +125 payback. We envision a hard-fought 3-2 type game here. 13 of the Red Wings last 18 games have resulted in an under! Jimmy Howard is expected to be between the pipes. Prior to struggling in his most recent start he had enjoyed a solid stretch with 8 of his 11 previous starts resulting in an under. Another one in the forecast here and we take advantage of a value spot here as too much emphasis is on the way Blackhawks have played out and not nearly enough emphasis on the Red Wings recent level of play and the fact that they will look to play this game their style on home ice. Bet the UNDER in Detroit Wednesday evening.