Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#954 ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -115 over Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Phillies have struggled on the road this season and their bullpen has turned into a borderline dumpster fire.  Philadelphia's bullpen ERA has rocketed up to a 5.81 ERA and only the Nationals have a higher bullpen ERA so far this season.  The Mets, on the other hand, have had one of the best bullpens in the league so far this season with a 5-1 record and 2.27 ERA and a 78% save conversion rate!  In terms of the starting pitching match-up here, the Phillies Aaron Nola has not been the same pitcher on the road as he has been at home in recent years.  Also, he is off to an overall rough start this season as well.  Nola is 0-4 with a 6.65 ERA in his 4 starts this season.  Also, opponents are hitting .303 against Nola this season and now he runs into a red hot Mets team that is 9-1 on the season in home games and just delivered a 4-0 series sweep over the Cardinals.  Mets starter Tylor Megill continues to be very strong at home.  In 2023 he went 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA here and in 2024 he had a 3.56 ERA here and now in his first 2 home starts of 2025 he has not allowed any earned runs in 9 innings!  The Phillies are off a loss to the Marlins and now are on the road where they have lost 5 of 7 games.  They have a strong lineup but tend not to hit as well on the road (.221) plus the Mets are hitting .253 at home this season.  All the edges are pointing one way in this series opener!  We are going with the money line on the home favorite in this one as everything is set up well here for a dominating win for the hosts Monday! 

ASA NHL play on Los Angeles Kings -121 vs. Edmonton Oilers, 10pm ET - The Kings finished the 2024-25 regular season with an NHL-best 31-6-4 home record, boasting a .825 points percentage and allowing just 2.02 goals per game at home. Their home goal differential is impressive, with a stout defense ranked second in the league, conceding only 2.48 goals per game overall. This defensive strength is a key advantage against Edmonton’s potent offense, which averaged 3.16 goals per game overall, 3.05 GF/GP on the road. Darcy Kuemper anchors the Kings’ crease with an elite 31-11-7 record, a 2.02 GAA (second in the NHL), and a .921 save percentage across 50 appearances. At home, Kuemper is even better, posting a 20-3-2 record with a 1.67 GAA and .935 save percentage. He dominated Edmonton this season, going 3-1 with a 1.33 GAA and .952 save percentage, allowing just four goals on 100 shots. In contrast, Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner struggled, finishing 26-18-4 with a 2.81 GAA and .896 save percentage. Skinner’s .894 save percentage against the Kings this season and weaker playoff leash make him a liability. The Kings also hold a 3-1 season series edge, including a 3-0 shutout and a 5-0 rout in April, showcasing their ability to stifle Edmonton’s stars like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, both of whom are battling injury concerns. With Edmonton missing key defenseman Mattias Ekholm and possibly others, the Kings’ depth and physicality should shine. Los Angeles’ 81.8% penalty kill (11th in the NHL) can neutralize Edmonton’s 24.8% power play, further tilting the ice. We like the Kings to win Game 1 and set the tone for the series.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 Detroit Pistons at NY Knicks, 7:30 pm ET - The Knicks and Pistons have met four times in the 2024-25 regular season, averaging 230.5 combined points per game. Their most recent clash, Game 1 of their playoff series, ended with a 123-112 Knicks win, totaling 235 points. Even their lowest-scoring matchup this year hit 221 points (115-106), a Pistons win on April 10th. Over their last ten head-to-head games, they’ve gone over 220 points 100% of the time, with one of the two teams scoring 117 or more points in 8 of ten. In Game 1 of this series, the Knicks offense looked like the unit that ranked 5th in Offensive Net Rating this season (117.3), on 53% shooting overall and 38% from Deep. A healthy Jalen Brunson (34 points in Game 1) has a massive impact on the Knicks offense and Karl-Anthony Towns (23 points, 11 rebounds) is also capable of putting up huge numbers. Detroit, meanwhile, has been no slouch offensively, averaging 112 PPG over their last ten games of the regular season. Cade Cunningham (21 points, 12 assists in Game 1) and Tobias Harris (25 points) can keep pace versus a Knicks team that is not as good defensively as past Thibodeau coached teams. The Pistons scored 112 in the opener of this series and that was with a 0-21 drought against the Knicks in the 4th quarter. Both teams should play at a decent pace again (99 possessions each in G1), and with another game at 56.4 EFG% or better we should see a total in the mid-220’s. Our betting model is projecting 224.3 total points.

#200194 ASA PLAY ON Tottenham Pick'em (-110) over Nottingham Forest, Monday at 3 ET - With their success in the Europa League Thursday a huge weight is lifted off the shoulders of Tottenham and we expect them to play much better here as a result in this Premier League match-up Monday. Tottenham got hammered in their most recent EPL match but that was on the road and they might have had one eye on their Europa League showdown with Eintracht Frankfurt. Now they are back home where their most recent EPL match as a host was a 3-1 win. We expect the Hotspur to come up big here at home and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would be a push since the goal line is at a pick'em. We do expect the outright win however as Tottenham gets revenge for a 1-0 loss at Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day.  Prior to that meeting, Tottenham had won each of the 3 prior meetings by a 2-goal margin!   Nottingham is fading some here late in the season and off B2B losses in which they scored only 1 goal in the 2 matches combined.  The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one and we expect the win and a cashed ticket for us here. We will take Tottenham on the goal line in this one.