Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 236 Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:40pm ET

Based on the early NBA results, defense is going to be optional this season. Eleven games on Tuesday and Wednesday featured at least one of the two NBA teams scoring 120+ points. OKC is coming off a big revenge win in San Antonio on Tuesday night, scoring 116 points in the process. That came against a Spurs defense that was one of the best in the league a year ago, allowing just 1.114 points per possession (3rd fewest). OKC took 95 field goal attempts in the game which is up from their season average of 89 per game in 2025-26. Tonight the Thunder face a Denver defense that isn’t very good. The Nuggets ranked 21st in dEFF last season allowing 1.174PPP. The Nuggets were 13th in effective FG% defense allowing 54.2% a year ago and gave up an average of 50.7 points per game in the paint, 17th most. What the Nuggets do well though is score points. Denver was the most efficient offense in the NBA a season ago at 1.226 points per possession. That ties into their #1 eFG% at 57.2% and 39% 3-point shooting, also best in the league. The line on this game isn’t abnormally high considering the O/U’s last season in the meetings in OKC had Totals set of 237.5 and 234.5. Both went OVER, but one of the two needed OT to get there. The Nuggets are healthy to start the season and OKC seems to be embracing a faster style of play based on their game against the Thunder. The OVER has cashed 7 of the last ten meetings between these two rivals. Bet OVER.

#11/12 ASA NHL play on UNDER 5.5 Los Angeles Kings vs New York Islanders, 7:30 pm ET Thursday - The Islanders are off of a 3-2 win over Anaheim. That was their 4th straight game totaling 5 or less goals. Also, all 3 of their games versus Western Conference opponents have also totaled 5 or less goals and this is another non-conference game as the low-scoring Kings are in town. LA enters this game off a big 5-2 win but they had scored only 1 goal in each of their 4 prior games. One game does not change everything for the Kings and their pattern had clearly been one of struggling to score goals. The other pattern for LA is not allowing much since the first two high-scoring games they had at the start of the season. Since then the Kings have allowed an average of only 2.6 goals in regulation time of their last 5 games. Clearly defensive play and superior netminding is the theme tonight and we expect less than 5.5 total goals in this one.  

#314 ASA PLAY ON Appalachian State +11 over James Madison, Thursday at 7 PM ET

We have some solid line value here with App State at home after JMU blew out Georgia State at home last Saturday.  The fact is, JMU has been nearly as good on the road this year and in their most recent road game they topped Georgia Southern 27-24 but were outgained by 1.5 YPP.  We have App State and Georgia Southern rated almost dead even and JMU was favored by 7.5 two weeks ago at GSU and now they are laying double digits @ App State.  The Dukes were favored @ Old Dominion by 6.5 and they were underdogs @ San Diego State, 2 teams that are power rated lower than Appalachian State.  Line value is with the host in this game.  The Mountaineers have the offense that can stay with JMU here as they are averaging 421 YPG and they are very balanced (223 YPG rushing and 227 passing).  They’ve also had an extra day off after beating Coastal Carolina last Friday while JMU played on Saturday.  The Neers have proven they can hang with the big boys as they had NC State on the ropes (@ NC State) with a tie game midway through the 4th quarter (App St lost by 10) and they outgained the Wolfpack 6.2 YPP to 5.8.  At home they have been really good with a 59-14 SU record since the start of the 2014 season.  Of those 14 home losses over the last 17+ seasons, only 4 have come by double digits.  Since the start of the 2017 season, the Mountaineers have been a home dog just 6 times and they’ve covered all 6 winning 4 outright.  Since moving up to the FBS level in 2014, they’ve never been a home underdog of more than 7.5 points until tonight.  ASU has been waiting for this game after getting embarrassed 59-10 @ JMU last year, the program’s worst loss since joining FBS in 2014.  James Madison is 7-0 on the season (6-1 ATS) and they’ve now become overvalued as we discussed earlier.  The Dukes may win this one on the road but we think it’ll be tight.  Take the points.     

#316 ASA PLAY ON Memphis -9.5 over East Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET

 Memphis is coming off a loss @ Tulane in a game they dominated the stat sheet with the exception of one key stat, turnovers.  The Tigers had a ridiculous 6 turnovers in the game including a pick 6 for Tulane.  On top of that, Memphis missed a FG and were shut out on downs at the Tulane 11 and 2 yard line.  The Tigers were +15 first downs, +163 total yards, and outgained the Green Wave 6.0 to 5.4 YPP.  That loss dropped Memphis to 5-2 on the season despite the fact they’ve outgained all 7 of their opponents on a YPP basis.  That includes @ Boise State, a game the Tigers lost but outgained BSU 10.0 YPP to 7.7 YPP.  They’ve been dominant in their 3 home games winning by 25, 24 and 18 points and they are outgaining their opponents by an average of 150 YPG.  ECU is coming off a tough OT loss @ UAB (Memphis beat UAB by 25 points) and the Pirates were outgained by 1.0 YPP (Memphis outgained UAB by 1.5 YPP).  The Pirates are 1-2 on the road this year but they’ve been outgained in all 3 of their road games, all teams much lower rated than Memphis.  Their lone road win was 20-17 @ Old Dominion (rated 115th) in a game they trailed 17-7 and needed to score the final 13 points of the game to get the close win.  The Pirates are averaging just 251 total yards on the road (Memphis averages 497 at home) and they’ve scored just 10, 17 and 20 points in those 3 road tilts (Memphis is averaging 42 PPG at home).  This is also a revenger for the Tigers after dropping a close 31-27 game @ ECU last season.  The Tigers are the much better team this season and we expect them to be ultra focused after getting upset and playing their worst game of the season last week.  Lay it.