Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#35/36 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-120) - New York Rangers at Carolina, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We are well aware that the Rangers have struggled to score goals for much of this season but the key here is that Hurricanes goalie Pyotr Kochetkov (lower body) is out and Frederik Andersen has been struggling badly!  The veteran netminder is having a rough start to the season and has lost 4 straight starts with an unsightly .854 save percentage during this run.  In fact, on the season the veteran netminder has allowed at least 3 goals in all but 2 of his dozen games!  The point being that this is a great game for the Rangers offense to get back on track and, they have shockingly been better on the road in comparison with at home this season.  New York has averaged scoring 3 goals in their 14 road games this season!  As for Carolina, they love playing at home and consistently score well here.  In fact, 8 of the 9 Hurricanes home games have totaled at least 7 goals and we love this spot for another over!  The Canes have been waiting for this one after losing 4-1 over the weekend at Buffalo.  Back home and ready to push the pace, this game should feature plenty of scoring chances.  The Hurricanes have averaged scoring 4 goals at home this season plus have allowed at least 3 goals in 8 of 9 games on home ice this season.  Our computer math model is showing the highest probability as 7 goals in this one with 8 as the 2nd highest probability based on the simulations. Over is the play Wednesday in Carolina

Champions League #224241/224242 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (+105) – Monaco at Pafos, Wednesday at 12:45 pm ET - Look for a rather wide-open match here.  Pafos is hosting and they are well aware of the fact that Monaco is having issues defensively and that will put the hosts in attack mode from the outset in this one.  However, Monaco is the overall stronger side and is favored on the road here for a reason.  Monaco has allowed 4 goals in back to back matches plus has allowed 3 or more goals in 3 of their last 4 in French Ligue 1 action.  The concerns defensively are genuine for this club.  However, Monaco can score well and Pafos is from the weaker Cyprus League.  At times Pafos can frustrate opponents but usually the stronger side gets their goal-scoring going and we saw this in Champions League action when Bayern Munich put up 5 goals on this Pafos club!  We look for a 3-2 or at least 3-1 final when all is said and done in this one. Per all of the above, you can see why we like the over plenty in this one and why we have no hesitation in grabbing this total and not having to lay any juice with the over at 3 goals! 

ASAwins NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 8pm ET - The Pelicans are one of the 4 worst teams in the NBA with an eDIFF (efficiency differential) of minus -12.9 on the season. Memphis has an eDIFF of 4.3 on the year. A closer look at each team's last five games and we see the Pels aren’t getting any better with an eDIFF of -12.5 compared to the Grizz in their last 5 games at -1.7. Memphis has won 2 of their last 3 games with the lone loss coming to the Nuggets. New Orleans is coming off a win over the Bulls, their first win in 10 games. These teams are similar offensively but the Grizzlies hold a decisive advantage on the defensive end of the court with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.150-points per possession allowed versus the Pels who are 29th in the league at 1.226PPP. Memphis has won 5 straight in the series dating back to the start of last season and we like them to extend the streak here.

#744 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana Tech -2.5 over Indiana State, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Weird spot here as these 2 non-conference foes just faced off a week ago @ Indiana State. The Sycamores won that game 60-51 as 3.5 point favorites. Just based on that line 1 week ago, La Tech should be favored by at least 3.5 here. In that loss, LT shot 29% from the field, 12% from beyond the arc (2 of 16) and only made 11 of their 20 FT attempts. Even with that horrible shooting effort, it was a 5-point game with under 1:00 minute left. That’s because LT dominated the boards pulling down nearly 30% of their misses which led to 6 more shot attempts and 10 more FT attempts in that loss. If the Bulldogs do anything but shoot terrible in that game they could have picked up a big road win. Indiana State didn’t light the world on fire either (33%) but they made 9 more triples (+27 points from 3) and the game still was fairly tight. We expect ISU to have problems again offensively here vs a La Tech defense that ranks 2nd in the nation allowing opponents to shoot just 32% from the field while allowing only 55 PPG. The Sycamores are 1-2 on the road this season with their only win coming @ SIU Edwardsville. They have shot under 40% this year on the road and jot only 26% from deep. La Tech is coming off back to back 20 win seasons and they’ve been tough at home going 27-6 SU since the start of the 2023 season. Meanwhile, ISU is off a 14-18 year and their head coach, Matthew Graves, has never had a winning season in his 6 years as a head coach (South Alabama and ISU). LT has had a full week to stew over last Wednesday’s loss @ ISU and we like them to win this game at home and cover this short number.

#746 ASA PLAY ON Memphis -10 over Southern Illinois, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Rough spot here for the Salukis. They played on Sunday & Monday in Florida and now Wednesday in Memphis. 3 games in 4 days and they split beating Delaware, who is 2-4 on the season, and losing to UAB. They have actually been on the road since November 12th playing @ Nevada (loss), @ North Dakota State (loss) and then the 2 neutral site games we discussed above. We wouldn’t be surprised if this team is out of gas. They are going to get a major effort from Memphis in this game as the Tigers have started the season 1-4. They’ve faced the 6th most difficult schedule in the country thus far including losses @ Ole Miss (by 6), vs Purdue (by 4), and vs Wake Forest (by 1 on a last second 3 pointer from the Demon Deacons). The last 2 games listed in that stretch were played last week in the Bahamas and Memphis has had off since Friday. SIU will be the lowest rated team Memphis has faced this season (128th per KenPom), while the 3-3 Salukis haven’t played a team yet this season rated higher than the Tigers. Southern Illinois is one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country (24% ranks 348th) and only 13% of their points come from deep (2nd to last in the country). They’ll have to score inside here and they are facing a Memphis D that ranks 56th in defensive efficiency despite playing one of the most difficult schedules in the nation. The Tigers are the much taller team (two 7 footers in the starting line up) which will make it tough for SIU to score inside the arc. This is a must win for Memphis and they have 3 straight home games to make some hay. Let’s lay it.