Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on OVER 226.5 Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers, 7pm ET - The 76ers are playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second night of a back-to-back so it’s unlikely Embiid suits up for Detroit tonight. That means more spacing for the 76ers offense, better ball movement and a faster pace without waiting for the big guy to lumber down the floor. Last night the 76ers played a slower, more deliberate game with Embiid, we anticipate tonight’s game will be more like Wednesday’s game at Washington where the 76ers took 99 field goal attempts and played in space. In their last 5 games the Sixers have the 4th best offensive efficiency in the league at 1.262-points per possession and an eFG% of 60% which is also 4th best. Detroit will need to score in this game too for us to cash this ticket and we expect them to put up 115 or better with an offense at averages 117.5ppg on the season. Detroit is 10th in oEFF for the year averaging 1.175-points per possession with the 5th best team FG% at 48.2%. Both teams are around league average in pace of play for the season, Philly has been much faster in their last 5-games, Detroit slightly slower than league average. Detroit is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, Philly ranks 17th in dEFF. Both teams are playing worse on that end of the floor in their past 5-games though with higher-than-normal points per possession allowed. We expect this game to finish closer to the league average of 231 total points. Bet OVER.

#959 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays -160 over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 2:10 PM ET - We lost with our play on the Blue Jays yesterday as Sean Burke pitched much better than expected for the White Sox plus the Jays uncharacteristically allowed 3 unearned runs in the game. We will come right back with Toronto here as the money line is available today at a reasonable price and we will not hesitate to back the Jays in a bounce back spot. Chicago is 2-5 thus far and incredibly they have allowed 9 or more runs in 4 of their 5 losses. Their bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this season. Now, in comparing bullpens one will see that the Jays also have a rather high ERA so far. However, that has been isolated to two tougher performances and a few relievers. Toronto is 4-3 this season and has allowed 3 or less runs (not including extra innings runs) in 5 of their 7 games this season. As for the White Sox starter here, they are likely to again use Grant Taylor as an opener and then Anthony Kay will likely get most of the work. Kay has a 5.50 ERA in his career. The Blue Jays are also using an opener here and then their bullpen with possibly Lazaro Estrada getting the bulk of the work. Overall, we like this Toronto bullpen much more than the White Sox bullpen. In terms of the hitting, the Jays batting average this season is 4th in the AL while the White Sox team batting average is a paltry .208 and that ranks 24th in the majors. We get a little back here after losing yesterday's bigger play and Saturday we again invest in last year's AL Champion Blue Jays and fade a White Sox team known for being horrible year in and year out - including an AL-worst 60-102 last season. Lay the moderate, yet reasonable, money line price Saturday with Toronto

#967/968 ASA PLAY ON Over 7.5 Runs (+100) – St Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers, Saturday at 1:10 PM ET - Colder weather comes to Detroit by tomorrow but today's afternoon game will actually be mild weather with a southerly breeze. Comerica Park is certainly a pitcher-friendly park but this will be a decent day for hitting. Also, Detroit's Jack Flaherty is coming off a rough 8-15 season and also had a tough first start in which he allowed 4 hits and 4 walks in only 4.1 innings and he was lucky the damage was not worse. The Cardinals' Dustin May is on his 3rd team in 2 seasons and last year he went 7-11 and struggled and he is coming off a very rough season opener in which he got pounded at home by the Rays. Cardinals bats will respond off the shutout loss and we get line value too with STL having low-scoring results since the high-scoring series with TB that opened the season plus the Tigers are off B2B low-scoring games. We take advantage of the line value with the lower total here as both these pitchers are very likely to struggle in this one. Our computer math model projects a total of 9 to 10 runs here and even if it only gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. Bet the Over in this one.

ASA NHL play on Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 (+110) over NY Islanders, 7:00 pm ET Saturday - The Islanders looked horrible last night in a 4-1 loss to the Flyers and that game was on home ice so the test here in Carolina will be even tougher. The Islanders are playing with a lot of pressure to make the post-season while the Hurricanes are well-set and even have a shot at the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference! The pressure seems to be getting to the Islanders as they have lost 3 straight and now they are on the road and facing a Canes team that's last 4 wins have all been by a margin of 3+ goals! The Hurricanes have scored at least 4 goals in each of their last 7 home ice wins and they averaged scoring 5 goals in those 7 victories! The Islanders have one high-scoring win in their last 7 games but they scored an average of only 2 goals in the other 6 games. This one sets up to be a home blowout. We lay the puck line (-1.5 goals) for a plus money return (+110) on the Hurricanes as they should dominate this match-up Saturday.   

German Bundesliga - #202421/202422 ASA PLAY ON OVER 3.5 goals (+100) Bayern Munich at Freiburg, Saturday at 9:30 AM ET - Bayern Munich has scored at least 4 goals in 4 of its last 5 matches and also has averaged scoring 3.5 goals over its last 10 matches.  Freiburg will be unable to slow them down but they at least have the benefit of this match being on their home pitch where they were shutout once in their last 4 matches but averaged scoring 3.3 goals in the other 3 matches.  Both clubs are entering this match off of wins and the confidence is high for both in what should be an entertaining and high-scoring affair.  The first meeting this season was a 6-2 Bayern Munich win and we only need to total half of that to be a winner here!  Over gets the call in this one!  

#649 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -1.5 over UConn, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Illinois has a number of key advantages in this game, especially on offense. They rank #1 per KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency averaging 131.7 points per 100 possessions which is the highest ever in the KenPom era (since 1997). They are shooting 36% from deep in this tourney and that includes a 3 of 17 effort (17%) vs Iowa in the Elite 8. The Illini were outscored by 24 points from beyond the arc in that game and still won by double digits. UConn has hit only 29% of their triples in this tourney and were trailing Duke by 19 points in the Elite 8 before coming back for a 1 point win. They also went to the wire with Michigan State winning by 4 and that was with a rare hot shooting night from deep as the Huskies hit 43% of their 3s in that tight win. Illinois should have solid advantages in some key areas that aren’t often talked about but should loom large in this game. They are the much better FT shooting team at 78% (UConn 71%) and the Illini should get their more often as well. Connecticut fouls a lot with 24% of their opponent’s points coming from the charity stripe which is 19th most in the country. Illinois opponents only score 13% of their points from the FT line which is dead last in the country. Illinois should also control the boards where they rank 3rd nationally on the offensive glass while UConn is barely in the top 90 on the defensive boards. The Illini also rarely have empty possessions with an offensive turnover rate that ranks in the top 10 in the country (UConn 178th in that key stat). Defensively, the Huskies have better efficiency numbers, however Illinois still sits in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and they have stepped it up on the Big Dance holding 3 straight opponents under 60 points (VCU, Houston, and Iowa). Two of those offenses, Houston & Iowa, rank in the top 20 nationally in efficiency and both are rated higher offensively than Connecticut. Another “hidden” advantage not many are talking about is the fact that this will be a semi home game for Illinois. They have a huge contingent in Indianapolis which is only 2 hours from Champaign. Our one worry here is Connecticut head coach Hurley has had very good tourney success and has been in this spot. Illinois coach Underwood has not been to the Final 4. That being said, we still feel the Illini have enough key advantages to get this win.

#645 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma -1 over Baylor, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - This is a semi final match up in the Crown Tourney being played in Las Vegas. Oklahoma picked up a win in OT vs Colorado on Wednesday while Baylor topped Minnesota. The Sooners won despite shooting only 37% from the field and just 27% from deep which is well below their season averages of 47% and 36%. They put up only 1.09 PPP in that win and their season average was 1.23 PPP. OU was getting good shots and because of that, the Shot Quality analytics score in that game had the Sooners winning by 19 points rather than 4 points. Baylor rolled over a Minnesota team that was playing with only a 6 man rotation and shot only 39% overall and made just 3 of 23 triples (13%). The Gophs also made just 47% of their FTs in that game. OU started just 1-9 in SEC play but since that poor start, they won 9 of their final 12 games and are rated as a top 20 team metrically since early February per Bart Torvik analytics. Down the stretch this Oklahoma team beat a number of NCAA tourney teams including Vandy, Georgia, Texas, Missouri, and Texas A&M. They didn’t have a good shooting night on Wednesday, however since early February this Sooner offense ranks 7th in the country in efficiency as we expect a much better performance vs a Baylor D that ranks outside the top 100 in efficiency. While OU was scorching in the 2nd half of the season topping a number of quality opponents, Baylor is just 7-14 since January 1st after winning 10 of their first 12 prior to that. We mentioned Oklahoma topping a number of NCAA tourney teams, not so much for Baylor. The Bears beat ONE NCAA tourney team the entire season topping Central Florida (a 10 seed) by 1 point. The Sooners have been playing their best basketball over the last 2 months, they have the better efficiency numbers both offensive and defensively, and we’re only laying 1 point. Oklahoma wins and moves onto the Crown Tourney Championship on Sunday.