Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 10pm ET - This is a steep price to lay with the Hawks so let’s grab the value tonight with the home team Blazers. Portland has quietly put together a 7-3 SU streak in their last 10 games but have now lost 2 in a row. They are working on some chemistry issues with Jrue Holiday and Robert Williams work their way back into the rotation. Also, Deni Avdija is out with an injury so picking up his points/assists must come from the rest of the starters. Atlanta made a big trade and sent Trae Young to the Wizards for CJ McCollum and Cory Kispert which is going to be a big upgrade for the Hawks moving forward. Atlanta is coming off a 116-141 loss to the Lakers on Tuesday night as their defense allowed the Lakers to shoot 58% overall and 56% from the 3-point line. Back to the value in the number. Portland was recently +5.5 at home against the Knicks, +6.5 and +7 versus the Rockets. Atlanta grades out much lower than those two teams in our power ratings, especially considering the current play of each team right now. The Blazers have lost 2 straight games but prior had a 5 game winning streak with W’s over Houston (2x) and the Spurs. In the Hawks last 10 games they were plus +2.5 and +3.5 at Toronto which is a comparable team in this situation. The efficiency differential between these two teams is close. Portland has an eDIFF of +2.7, Atlanta is +3.6. Grab the points with the home dog in this one.

#849 ASA PLAY ON UC Riverside +5.5 over Long Beach State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - These 2 have the exact same 6-11 records on the season but UC Riverside has played the tougher schedule (83rd SOS). UCR is 1-4 in Big West play but they’ve faced the toughest slate in conference play having already played the 3 highest rated teams in the conference, Hawaii, UC San Diego, and UC Santa Barbara. Half of the Highlanders wins this season have come on the road and their stats away from home are almost identical to their home stats. We’re getting some value here with this number because UCR has lost 5 in a row, while Long Beach has won 3 of their last 4. Riverside’s last 2 losses have gone to the wire losing by 1 and 3 points vs Cal St Bakersfield and UC San Diego. Meanwhile, LBSU hasn’t created margin in any of their wins this year vs D1 opponents. They have just 4 wins vs D1 teams and those have come by 3, 4, 6, and 8 points. They are a poor defensive team ranking 338th in opponent’s FG%, 349th defending the arc, and 308th in PPG allowed (77 PPG). The Beach also struggles to shoot the 3 ranking 309th barely making 30% of their triples. Tough to lay this number with a team that is bad on defense and can’t make 3’s. Riverside has been very competitive when traveling to Long Beach with a 2-3 SU record (3-2 ATS) with their 3 losses here coming by 1, 2, and 8 points. Too many points as we look for this one to go down to the wire.

#306530 ASA PLAY ON Florida Gulf Coast +3.5 over Queens, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Huge home game for FGCU who sits at 1-3 in ASUN play but they are ranked per KenPom as the 4th best team in the conference. They are coming off back to back home losses vs Austin Peay and Lipscomb, who are the 2 highest rated teams in the league. That puts the Eagles in must win mode at home as they can’t afford to fall too far behind in the conference race. Tonight they take on Queens who is playing their 3rd straight road game in the span of 8 days. The Royals are 4-0 in conference play but they haven’t faced any of the top 5 teams in the Atlantic Sun and 2 of their wins have come against the 2 worst teams in the league, Jacksonville and North Florida. Both of those 2 opponents are ranked outside the top 300 and those are the Royals only 2 road wins this season. They also just happened to come last Thursday and Saturday, so Queens is off 2 straight road wins vs bad teams and now take a solid step up in their 3rd straight road game vs a desperate team. Overall for the season the Royals are 2-7 SU on the road losing by an average of 15 PPG. They shoot just 44% away from home while allowing their opponents to make 52% of their shots. Their defense stinks 340th in efficiency, 336th in opponent’s eFG%, and 343rd defending the arc. They’ll have rough time tonight facing an FGCU offense that hits 47% of their shots at home and averages 86 PPG. Queens hasn’t beaten a single top 200 team this season (FGCU ranks 189th) and we don’t see them winning on the road here. We like Florida Gulf Coast to get the outright win or, at the very least, the underdog ATS cover at home tonight.