Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASAwins NHL play on: Utah Mammoth @ San Jose Sharks – Over 6.5 (-110) - The over thesis here pivots on advanced metrics revealing San Jose's goaltending woes beyond raw stats. While SJS boasts a respectable .912 team SV% (12th), their expected SV% (xSV%) ranks near the bottom at ~.885 —highlighting vulnerability to high-danger shots and shot quality (29th in GSAx). This inflates their 3.26 GA/GP (23rd), especially at home where they play at the NHL's 4th-fastest pace (32.1 shots allowed/GP). Utah counters with 3.16 GPG (15th) and a 553 shot volume (12th) vs. SJS's 23rd-ranked PK% (77.4%). Expected starters Vitek Vanecek (UTA, .875 SV% - has allowed 4 goals last two starts) and Yaroslav Askarov (SJS, .903 SV% but 4+ goals in 4/10 starts) add volatility, with SJS home games averaging 6.2GPG.

ASAwins NHL play on: St. Louis Blues @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Over 5.5 (-128) This matchup remains a prime over opportunity, fueled by Toronto's potent offense against a St. Louis squad prone to defensive lapses. The Blues rank 32nd in goals against at 3.84 per game, with a team SV% of .861 that's bottom-tier (32nd) and ties into deeper issues in shot quality (xSV% ~.905, 28th). Jordan Binnington has struggled on the road (.887 SV%, 3.50+ GAA), while Joseph Woll (confirmed starter for TOR) sits at .906 SV% but has surrendered 3.05 goals in 1 start this season. Toronto's games have gone over 5.5 in 16 of 19 (84%), and their 19th-ranked PK (78.95%) could falter against STL's 12th-ranked PP (22.9%).

ASAwins NBA play on: San Antonio Spurs -5.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Injuries to both teams will dominate the headlines but the Spurs are the deeper team and can overcome the absence of Wembanyama. Memphis will be without Ja Morant so expect rookie Cedric Coward to fill his minutes. San Antonio is 6-2 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +7.5ppg. The Spurs are coming off a 13-point home win over the Kings with De’Aaron Fox pouring in 28-points with 11 assists. Memphis is off to a 4-10 SU start which includes a 1-5 SU road record. They are losing on the road by an average of -13.3ppg. The Grizz are in a dilemma right now and have to be considering blowing up this roster and starting over. They are bad on both ends of the court with 29th FG% overall, 27th in 3PT% and rank 27th in offensive efficiency. It’s not much better on the defensive side with the 18th ranked DEFF, 24th FG% D and 19th 3PT% defense. Memphis gives up the 27th most 2nd chance points in the NBA and the Spurs scored the 4th most. San Antonio is 7th in offensive efficiency at 1.186PPP and rank 7th in FG% (49.7%) and 17th in 3PT%. The Spurs have the better overall roster and it will show tonight against a Memphis team that has lost 4 straight on the road.

World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage - #225405/225406 ASA PLAY ON OVER 6 goals (-105) Liechtenstein at Belgium, Tuesday at 2:45 ET - Belgium is a massive favorite here as they are favored by 5.5 goals on the goal line. We look for them to dictate the flow of this match and remember they won the prior meeting 6-0 at Liechtenstein and now are at home for this one. Also, Belgium should be ready to go strong here as their last match was a disappointing draw in a match they were a massive -625 money line favorite. Now back at home and facing an even weaker foe, Belgium is going to cut loose here and pile up goals. The result should be 7 or more finding the back of the net here and the Over gets the call in this one!

#626 ASA PLAY ON Yale -8.5 over Rhode Island, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Yale is off a 22-8 season and NCAA tourney appearance last year losing by 9 vs Texas A&M in round 1. They return 4 of their top 6 players from that team and rank 73rd nationally per KenPom which is nearly 100 spots higher than the next best team in the Ivy League (Cornell). They are taking on a Rhode Island team that lost everyone off last year’s team. Literally everyone. Their top 8 players are all transfers. The Rams are 3-1 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country (358th out of 365 teams). Their 3 wins are vs teams all ranked outside the top 300 and those teams currently have a combined record of 0-10 vs D1 opponents. The one team they’ve faced ranked inside the top 200, Tulsa, rolled the Rams by 17 points on a neutral court. This will be their first true road game of the season. Yale has played the tougher schedule (3-0 record) having not faced a team ranked lower than 240. They are the better team and they have a little extra motivation here. That’s because they lost @ URI last year by 6 points. The Bulldogs made only 22% of their triples in that tight loss which was WAY below their season average of 39% which ranked them 4th in the country. Yale also made 7 fewer FT’s and still nearly won on the road. We expect them to shoot much better at home in this one. Yale ranks 22nd nationally in FG%, 4th in 3 point FG%, and they make over 82% of their FT’s so far this season. We like the home team to win by double digits here.

#103 ASA PLAY ON Akron +3.5 over Bowling Green, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This is a lost season for a Bowling Green team that had high hopes entering the year. They went to a bowl game last year and now sit at 1-5 in MAC play, 3-7 overall. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games and in their only win during that stretch, a 5 point win over Toledo, they were outgained by over 200 yards. They are in a bit of disarray with head coach Eddie George firing his offensive coordinator a few weeks ago. The Falcons have used 4 QB’s this season and went with freshman Hunter Najm in his first start of the season. He has completed just 54% of his passes in limited action this year and has only 1 passing TD (2 interceptions). It looks like he’ll get the start here. The Falcons are getting outgained in MAC play by a average of 60 YPG and outscored by an average of 11 PPG. Akron is 4-8 on the year but ascending unlike BG. The Zips have won a total of 8 games the prior 3 seasons so there isn’t a “disappointment” level that the Bowling Green program has with their season. In fact, a win here gives them their most wins since the 2017 season. They have won 2 of their last 3 games with their only loss coming in OT last week vs Kent, in a game Akron outgained them 530 to 374 total yards. The Zips have a positive YPG differential in MAC play and they are averaging 24 PPG compared to BG’s 16 PPG. Akron should have a huge edge at QB with senior Ben Finley who has thrown for over 6,000 career yards and 41 TD’s. We have Akron rated as the better team and while BG looks to be just playing out the season, the Zips have so motivation to get to 5 wins. Take the points.