Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#5/6 ASA NHL play on UNDER 6 -120 Montreal at Buffalo, 7 pm ET Wednesday - Both teams are here thanks to riding red-hot goalies as defense and goaltending has been the theme for both teams so far in this post-season. Both clubs are off round one wins and head into round two with plenty of momentum. The Canadiens have given up only 13 goals in regulation time of their 7 games in this post-season. The Sabres have allowed only 4 goals in regulation time of their last 4 games and these have been the 4 games that Lyon has started in goal. We expect another big game from the Buffalo netminder here at home but note also that Montreal has allowed 2 or less goals in each of its last 3 road post-season games as they continue to play well away from home. This one is set up well to be a 2-1 battle as first games of the series also can see a bit of a more conservative style of play as teams want to establish the physicality and defense early in a series moreso than just hitting the ice flying around on the attack. Clearly defense is the theme tonight and we expect less than 5.5 total goals in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 215 Philadelphia 76ers at NY Knicks, 7pm ET - The first game of this series cruised to an OVER largely because the Knicks put up 137 points themselves, but Philly completely punted late in the game, or they would have scored more than 98-points. We expect another higher scoring game here with the shooting percentages leveling out as the Knicks aren’t shooting 63% again but should be around their season average of 48%. We are also banking on the Sixers shooting better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1 at 41% (46% on season). The season O/U record between these two rivals is 3-2 to the OVER and interestingly enough, one of the two teams has scored 130 or more points in three meetings. All 5 meetings this season have finished with 221 or more total points being scored. The Knicks are the 2nd best offensive net rating in the playoffs at 124.5, the 76ers are 9th at 109.3. The Knicks have the best post season eFG% at 59.4%, the 76ers sit 10th at 55.3%. Based on their playoff efficiency stats our model projects 218.3 total points being scored. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but it certainly points us in the right direction. We are on the OVER in this one.

#971 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (-130) over Houston Astros, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - The Dodgers let us down yesterday as Ohtani pitched well but LA surprisingly got shut down at the plate. We will get some back here today after that top game loss Tuesday. Los Angeles had a rare 4-game losing streak last week but then responded with B2B wins prior to yesterday's loss. Also, before the Dodgers 4-game losing streak they had gone 7-2 this season when entering a game off a loss. We like backing strong teams off a loss and LA fits that category today plus they have a huge pitching edge. Not only do the Astros have a league-worst bullpen ERA this season, the Houston starter today is Lance McCullers and he has a 6.32 ERA this season and had a 6.51 ERA last season. The Dodgers will counter with Tyler Glasnow on the mound here and he is 3-0 with a 2.56 ERA in his 6 starts this season and he has held opponents to a .146 batting average this season! Last season he held hitters to a .177 average and this followed his first season with LA in which he held opponents to a .190 batting average! Look for Glasnow to frustrate the Astros hitters here while LA bounces back at the plate against McCullers and an overall weak Astros bullpen. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one and note that the Dodgers 10 road wins this season have all been by a margin of at least 2 runs!

#962 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Rays -140 over Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 1:10 PM ET - The Rays are going for the sweep here and we expect them to get the job done as they continue to dominate at home this season while the Blue Jays road struggles continue. Toronto's loss yesterday dropped them to 6-12 in road games this season while Tampa Bay is a fantastic 13-4 in home games this season. The Rays are 7-1 against left-handed starters this season and this game is a battle of southpaws. Toronto has Patrick Corbin on the mound and he is off to a decent start this season but went 40-81 the past 6 seasons and with a high ERA too and we don't trust that the 36-year old veteran has suddenly just flipped a switch. In fact, Corbin has allowed 12 hits in 10 innings in his past two starts and this is a sign the normal fade is coming again for the lefty. As for Rays southpaw Shane McClanahan, he is 36-18 with a 3.03 ERA in his career and is off to a solid start to this season. McClanahan is back from injury after Tommy John surgery cost him the 2024 season and then when he was set to return in 2025 he had a shoulder injury. He looks like he is back in top form as he went 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his 4 spring training starts this year and also has pitched well so far in the regular season and particularly at home. We look for the Rays to improve on their 5-0 divisional record this season with another win here as the Jays road slump continues. Lay the moderate, yet reasonable, money line price Wednesday with Tampa Bay