Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#704 ASA PLAY ON South Dakota -7 over Southern Indiana, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota is 1-2 on the season with their losses coming in OT vs Utah Tech and @ Creighton where they played well losing by 16 as a 26 point dog. The Coyotes have some continuity returning this year with 4 regulars (3 starters this year) that played key roles last season. Southern Indiana sits at 0=2 and has all transfers in their starting line up and only 1 player that played here last year in their top 8. It’s going to take some time them to figure out how to play together. These 2 faced off last season @ Southern Indiana and South Dakota was a 2.5 point road favorite in that one and lost outright. We were on SIU in that game as South Dakota was coming off an upset win @ Western Michigan just a few days earlier and the set up to take Southern was solid. We’re now getting the Coyotes at home, where they were 14-2 last season, laying only a few points more than they did on the road last season. The Screaming Eagles are 0-1 on the road this year and have been a terrible road team going 5-27 SU away from home since the start of the 2023 season. It’s early in the season but South Dakota has been the much better shooting team to date hitting almost 47% of their shots compared to 33% for Southern Indiana (344th nationally). The Screaming Eagles are also averaging less than 1.00 point per possession so far this season. Let’s take South Dakota at home on Wednesday night.

ASA play on LA Clippers +3 vs. Denver Nuggets, 10:40pm ET - If you are in your 50’s plus, you have come to hate the two most dreaded words in the NBA basketball dictionary…”load management”. Long gone are the days of NBA players toughing it out and playing through adversity or minor injuries. When it comes to this game tonight we know that Kawhi Leonard is likely to sit for the Clippers as they manage his fragile minutes. As far as this bet is concerned, the Nuggets are the team that is concerned about keeping their super stars healthy. Jamal Murry logged 37 minutes last night against the Kings while Aaron Gordon played 30 minutes. Both have nagging injuries right now and could see limited game action tonight. Of course, Nikola Jokic will play but the Clippers have two bigs (Zubac, Lopez) on their roster that can at least slow the Joker and make him work harder than usual. The Clippers are rested and have lost 5 straight games making this a semi-desperate situation. These same two teams met in the playoffs a year ago and it was a grueling 7-game series with the Nuggets prevailing. The home team won 8 of the 11 meetings a year ago and we get a revenge-minded-rested Clippers team against an unrested Nuggets here. Clippers 15-8 SU their last 23 when holding a rest advantage over an opponent with an average MOV of +7.3ppg.

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 233 Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets, 7pm ET - The Bucks have been consistent on the offensive end of the court, ranking 10th in Offensive Efficiency (117.8) and averaging 119.6 points per game while playing at the 11th-fastest pace (101.5 possessions). Charlotte's defense has been leaky, ranking 26th in Defensive Efficiency (120.3) and allowing 121 points per game, with opponents exploiting their 26th-ranked opponent eFG% allowed (59.3%). Milwaukee's defense under Doc Rivers continues to be just mediocre. The Bucks aren’t much better than the Hornets defensively ranking 19th in Deff, allowing 117.1. Both teams shoot the ball extremely well with the Bucks ranking 2nd in eFG% shooting 58.8%, the Hornets rank 11th at 55.8%. Our math model is projecting 237 total points being scored in this one and we agree with the numbers.

ASA play on: Blackhawks +135 vs. Devils, 9:30pm ET - The New Jersey Devils (11-4-1, 23 points, 1st in Metropolitan) roll into Chicago as -150 road favorites against the Blackhawks (8-5-3, 19 points, 3rd in the Central), but this screams value on the home dog at +130. After grinding through a brutal seven-game road trip (where they went 3-3-1 but outscored opponents 20-15 in those spots), the Hawks return to the United Center—where they're a crisp 3-2-1 this season, averaging 3.0 goals per game at home while allowing just 2.4. Familiar ice, rested legs, and a raucous crowd could flip the script on a Devils squad that's been middling away from Newark (4-4-0, outscored 28-30 on the road, with a -2 goal differential). Don't sleep on Chicago's offensive surge supporting the outright win: They're 17th in the NHL in even-strength offense (2.28 GF/60 over the last 15 games, up from 29th earlier), fueled by Connor Bedard's league-leading pace (25 points in 16 GP, including 9G-16A at even strength) and linemate Andre Burakovsky's chemistry (7G-7A, +14 rating). The Hawks' 58.3% actual goals ratio at 5v5 ranks third league-wide (outscoring foes 35-25), a massive overperformance on their underlying xG that screams positive regression at home—where Bedard's shot volume spikes (3.8 SOG/GP) and their power play converts at 22% (12th overall). Add in Tyler Bertuzzi's recent hat trick and Spencer Knight's .910 SV% anchoring the crease (with a shutout last outing), and Chicago's got the firepower to exploit New Jersey's road vulnerabilities: The Devils rank just 18th in road PK% (79%) and have allowed 3.88 GA/G away, including multi-goal outbursts in four of eight tilts. New Jersey's elite overall form masks the split—Jesper Bratt (OT winner vs. MTL) and Jack Hughes drive their attack, but road woes include a .871 SV% from Jacob Markstrom (3.95 GAA away) and fatigue from a compressed schedule. Chicago's home cooking turns this into a trap game; model implies ~45% win prob for the Hawks (vs. implied 43.5% at +130).

#308 ASA PLAY ON Miami OH +4 over Toledo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Toledo has been a terrible road team this season with an 0-4 SU mark including 2 losses as double digit favorites. The Rockets have had a tendency to lose games outright when laying points. In fact, Toledo has lost 18 times outright as a favorite since 2021 and 12 of those losses have come as a favorite of a TD or more. They can’t be trusted laying points on the road as they are 3-14 ATS in that situation dating back to the start of the 2022 season. As you might expect, the Rockets road numbers are WAY off their home numbers. Take a look at this…Toledo averages 44.3 PPG at home and 14.8 PPG on the road. They average 512 YPG (on 7.9 YPP) at home and 334 YPG (4.6 YPP) on the road. And it’s not as if they’ve played a much tougher slate away from home compared to at home with 3 of their 4 road opponents currently have a losing record and the only one with a winning record (Western Michigan) is 5-4. Miami OH is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming vs UNLV (who is currently 7-2) in a game the Redhawks led by 14 points in the 4th quarter and blew it. They are 29-5 SU at home their last 34 games. At home Miami is averaging 36 PPG (just 16 PPG on the road) and 419 YPG at home (301 on the road). Nice value here with Miami coming off a tight 24-20 road loss @ Ohio while Toledo destroyed Northern Illinois at home. The Rockets have never beaten Miami Oh by more than 4 on the road and we don’t think they will here. The Redhawks are absolutely live to pull this upset at home.