Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#430 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -3 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Niners have a lot to play for. If they win out, they lock up the #1 seed in the NFC and home field all the way through the Super Bowl if they can make it that far. The Super Bowl is being played at the home stadium in Santa Clara. This offense has been lights out averaging nearly 35 PPG over their last 5. They haven’t punted since November! Brock Purdy is back on QB and he is a perfect 5-0 both SU & ATS winning all 5 games by double digits. They are in a quite a battle with the Rams and Seahawks for the NFC West crown. The Bears most likely will win the NFC North as their magic number is 1. They just need 1 win in their final 2 games or 1 loss by Green Bay in their final 2 games. The defense has been poor on the road allowing 29 PPG which doesn’t match up well with SF’s potent offense. They’ll struggle to slow down the San Francisco passing offense which ranks #1 in the NFL in success rate. Chicago’s pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete over 66% of their passes (22nd) and 7.1 yards per pass attempt (28th). The Niners are 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite facing a Chicago team that has been outgained by 1.1 YPP on the road and outscored by 4 PPG away from home. These teams have the same record (both 11-4) but San Francisco’s point differential is more than twice that of Chicago (+74 for SF and +33 for the Bears). On top of that, the Niners have a -4 turnover differential on the season while Chicago is +21 (by far the best in the NFL) yet they have the same record. That speaks volumes as to how much better SF is. If San Fran doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch here, they win this game by more than a TD.

#429/430 ASA PLAY ON Over 52.5 Points – Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - 2 explosive offenses and not so great defenses should lead to a very high scoring game in this one. Let’s start with the Niners offense. They haven’t punted since November! Yes you read that correctly. In their last 2 games they’ve scored 85 points on 18 offensive possessions. That includes 10 TD’s, 5 FG’s, a missed FG, an interception, and a fumble. Since QB Purdy returned from an injury, the Niners have gone 5-0 both SU and ATS and they’ve averaged 34.4 PPG during that stretch. They are facing a Chicago defense that ranks 25th in total D, 28th in YPP allowed, and the Bears are giving up 2.62 points per drive on the road (30th in the NFL). The SF offense should continue their big time offensive success in this game. On the defensive side, the 49ers have not been great as of late. They have allowed 51 points in their last 2 games and forced only 4 total punts in those 2 games. Those games were vs Tennessee (31st in total offense & 30th in scoring) and Indy with Philip Rivers playing in his first game at QB directly off the couch. Now they are facing a Chicago offense that is averaging 26 PPG (9th in the NFL) and they lead the NFL in rushing success rate. The Bears also average 14 plays per game of more than 10 yards which is the most in the NFL. Looks like perfect weather in Santa Clara on Sunday night and we should be plenty of offensive snaps with both teams in the top 10 in seconds per play. This looks like a game where both offenses will have to “keep up” with the other and a shootout is very likely.

#422 ASA PLAY ON Miami Dolphins +6 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We faded the Bucs last week and picked up a win and they continue to be priced as if they are much better than they actually are. We know they “need to” win as they battle for the NFC South crown but throw that out the window. Often times that doesn’t matter and it’s already priced into the number. In fact, in the final 2 weeks of the regular season, teams that have to win to keep their playoff hopes alive vs teams that have been eliminated have been a big time money burner. Those “have to” win teams are 69-109 ATS dating back to 1990 including 0-1 this year with Minnesota beating Detroit on Xmas day as an underdog. Tampa continues to be overpriced as they’ve now lost 7 straight ATS and 6 of their last 7 SU yet they are nearly a TD favorite on the road here? Their only outright win since October was at home vs Arizona and the Bucs were outgained 6.3 YPP to 4.9 YPP in that win. The defense hasn’t been good (27th in YPP allowed) and the offense has tanked since October. Over their past 9 games, the Buccaneers are averaging 4.6 yards per play, which ranks 29th in the league ahead of only Cleveland, NYJ, and Las Vegas. They haven’t been explosive on that side of the ball gaining 10 or more yards on just 21% of their passing plays over that span which is 30th in the league. Miami is off back to back losses after winning 4 straight. We faded them last week taking Cincinnati who was off a shutout loss. The score was lopsided but the Fins were only outgained by 18 yards and the YPP numbers were dead even. We look for Miami to play well in their home finale coming off that loss. New QB Ewers now has a few weeks of practice and a game under his belt so improvement is expected. The betting splits are as we expected here with almost 60% of the wagers on the Bucs yet more than 60% of the money on Miami which speaks volumes. Even if the Dolphins don’t come out on top in this game, we look for it to be close so taking the points is the way to go.

#419/420 ASA PLAY ON Over 39.5 Points - New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We get two terrible teams in full rebuild mode, with nothing to play for late in the season, which is typically a favorable OVER betting situation. Going into this season the Saints thought they had their future QB on the roster in Spencer Rattler. It turns out the future guy on the depth chart was rookie Tyler Shough. Shough has exceeded expectations this season with 1,792 passing yards in 9 games with 7 TD and 5 INT. He has helped lead the Saints to three straight wins, two of which were against teams fighting for their playoff lives. New Orleans scored 24, 20 and 29 points in the past three games, averaging 336 total yards and 5.5YPP in the process. Overall, the Saints defense has been pretty good this season, but what do they have to play for against the Titans? New Orleans has allowed 20+ points in 12 of their fifteen games and with total set so low, that’s all we need the Titans to get to for this game to go OVER. Tennessee has looked better with their rookie QB as well in recent games with 31, 24 and 26 points in their last three outings. Those numbers came against three quality defenses of the Browns, 49ers and Chiefs so it’s not like they did it against poor defenses. The Titans offense averaged just 4.7YPP on the season but in their last 3 games that number goes to 5.7YPP. While the offense has improved, the defense has not. The Titans have some of the worst defensive statistics in the league, including allowing 6.0YPP (26th) and 26.9ppg (26th). The Titans have allowed 25+ in 4 of their last five games and 30 or more in three of those.

#306547 ASA PLAY ON Winthrop +18 over Texas Tech, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Wouldn’t be surprised if Tech is a bit flat here which wouldn’t be ideal vs a very solid Winthrop team. The Red Raiders are coming off a huge, upset win over Duke at Madison Square Garden back on December 20th. They erased a 17 point deficit and made a FT with 3 seconds remaining to win 82-81. They’ve had 9 days to bask in the glow of that win AND they start Big 12 play facing Oklahoma State next. Winthrop is 8-6 on the year and ranked 122nd per KenPom. Their 6 losses have all come by 6 points or less including 3 top 100 teams. The Eagles lost @ Arkansas by 1 and @ Nebraska by 7, two teams power ranked very similar to Texas Tech. Winthrop is a very dangerous dog, especially a large underdog, for a number of reasons. First they are experienced with all seniors in the starting lineup and a few more contributing off the bench. Second, the Eagles shoot the ball very well hitting 37% of their triples (58th in the country) and they are very efficient on offense (top 60 in offense efficiency). They are a good rebounding team and they don’t turn the ball over (13th in offensive turnover rate) limiting extra possessions for their opponent. Lastly, this team can score. They average 90 PPG and even vs their top 100 opponents they are averaging 82 PPG. It’s really difficult to pull away from a team that can put points on the board like Winthrop can. The Red Raiders haven’t been elite on defense this season ranking 293rd in opponents FG% and 228th defending the arc. We highly doubt they’ll shut down Winthrop’s offense. Let’s take the huge points here.