Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Vancouver Canucks Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Edmonton Oilers, Saturday at 3:35 PM ET - The Canucks are available at about -135 on the puck line in this match-up.  Having that extra 1.5 goals on your side could prove very valuable in this game as it should be a rather close match-up.  The Oilers are going to the post-season and their spot is locked up as well as their position and so their main focus here is just staying healthy as they tune up for their first-round playoff series against the Jets.  As for the Canucks, they still have 3 games left against the Flames after this one.  Vancouver had the long pause not too long ago as the covid-19 pandemic was particularly rough in the BC province of Canada.  That said, the Canucks are still looking to make the most of these final few games and to build some early momentum for next season which will be here before you know it!  The NHL is looking for an October start and getting back to a traditional October start time table for their seasons going forward.  If you grabbed the road team at +1.5 goals in each of the last 7 meetings between these teams you went a perfect 7-0!  5 of the 7 wins were outright wins and 2 of the games were losses by just a single goal.  With Oilers likely to be the much less focused team here, we feel there is excellent line value with the +1.5 goals and the Canucks.  Vancouver is off back to back ugly losses and they want to absolutely hit the "reset button" and work to finish the season the right way these next 4 games.  Edmonton has won 3 of its last 4 games but all 3 wins were by just a single goal.  Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying a reasonable price in doing so) with road underdog Vancouver is the big value play here.

#979 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -137 over Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 7:37 PM ET - Great line value spot here with Aaron Nola and the Phillies.  Nola has lesser numbers in recent starts but is coming off a game in which he lasted a career-low 58 pitches.  Coming off a tough start like that, there is no doubt that Nola is highly motivated to get back on track here and he faces a Blue Jays lineup that is not familiar with him.  The result is excellent line value here as this line has dropped from the -150 range to the -135 range and this is essentially ignoring the fact that the Phillies have a big pitching edge here.  Nola is considered the Phillies ace and Toronto is countering with a guy that is their #5 in the rotation and also very likely to soon be losing his rotation spot.  Anthony Kay has a 6.45 ERA in his career and is winless in his 3 appearances (2 starts) this season and has a 10.24 ERA with opponents hitting .350 against him.  The Phillies enter this game having won 8 of 11 games and the Jays are 0-3 this season in games in which Kay has pitched.  With yesterday's Philadelphia win to open up the series, the road team has now prevailed in 7 of Toronto's last 9 games.  We fully expect that road team trend to continue here behind a strong bounce back start from Nola and more troubles for Kay!  This one will be all Phillies per our computer math model.  We will grab the road team at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet PHILADELPHIA -137

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 over NY Knicks, 1 PM ET - Both teams have incentive to win here as they jockey for positioning in the East and we expect a close game throughout with the Hornets cashing in as a sizable underdog. New York just clinched their first playoff spot in a long time and will be a dangerous team in the postseason. Charlotte has a young exciting cast but won’t be a viable team in the East for years to come. New York has the 10th best average margin of victory in the NBA at home this season of +4PPG which obviously doesn’t get a cover in this matchup. The Knicks rely on a stellar defense but struggle offensively with the 15th ranked home offensive efficiency in the Garden. Charlotte has the 23rd ranked road differential in the NBA but it’s less than today’s spread at -3.5PPG. New York is 3-0 ATS this season when favored by 5 or more points but this is clearly an unfamiliar role for them has it’s happened just three times this season. These two teams have split this season but Charlotte has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Expect a playoff like intensity by both teams today and a close game that goes down to the wire.

ASA FREE PLAY: OVER - Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 pm ET - We like Over in this big Eastern Conference showdown between the Heat and Bucks. Combined these two have favored the Over all season long with a 77-62-1 Over record. Both are known for their defense but the offenses for each team have been outstanding lately. In their last five games the Heat have the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.232PPP while the Bucks are 3rd overall. Milwaukee does not defend the 3-point shot well with the 28th ranked 3-pt% defense in the NBA while the Heat are 13th in 3-point shooting at 36.6%. Both teams' offenses are playing at a high level right now and based on current trending data our model is predicting 238 total points being scored.