Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#669/670 ASA PLAY ON Under 158 Points – Cleveland State vs Valparaiso, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Our projections have this game landing right around 150 points so value to the Under. These 2 played last season and the total was set at 149 with CSU winning 75-67 for 142 total points. The teams combined to shoot just over 46% in the game on 67 total possessions. So they shot fairly well but still barely cracked 140 points. Toledo wants to play fast but Valpo will do everything in their power to slow them down and make this a half court game. All of Valparaiso’s games with the exception of Kentucky, have been under 70 total possessions including 2 games at 63 possessions. Besides Kentucky, they’ve held their other 3 opponents to 63 or fewer points. The problem has been the offense. This Valpo team can’t shoot. They rank 358th in FG% and 290th in 3 point FG%. They have yet to top 68 points on the season. CSU’s defense has been poor but 3 of the 4 teams they’ve faced have offenses ranked in the top 135 efficiency wise and 2 of those in the top 80. The one lower level offense they’ve faced was Radford and they held them to 1.00 PPP. The game was higher scoring (169) because Radford is a very fast paced team as well. That game had 82 possessions. Offensively, Cleveland State hasn’t been a great shooting team. They rank 242nd in FG% and while they’ve shot the 3 well (37%), the Valpo defense is allowing just 32% from beyond the arc. In a game where we project the possessions to be in the low 70’s, these 2 offenses will have to be very efficient to get to this number. Take the Under.

UNDER 6.5 Goals - Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres - Tonight's matchup in Buffalo screams low-scoring affair, making UNDER 6.5 goals a sharp play. The Flames' offense is an absolute wasteland—dead last in the NHL at 2.10 goals per game and a dismal 7.1% shooting percentage, turning prime chances into airballs. Buffalo isn't lighting it up either, ranking 23rd with 2.89 GF/G and 24th in shot percentage at 10.4%, so don't expect a shootout from either side. Calgary's netminder Devin Cooley has been lights-out in relief, posting a stellar 1.75 GAA and .935 SV% across three appearances, though his 0-2-1 record underscores the Flames' scoring drought. Facing Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who's started four games for the Sabres with a 3.02 GAA and .883 SV%, but Buffalo's back end has leaked goals—except those blowups came against elite offenses like Colorado (6 GA in a 6-3 loss) and Carolina. Against lesser attacks, they've been stingier. Add that seven of Calgary's last nine games have finished with 6 or fewer total goals, and this has all the makings of a 2-1 grinder.

ASAwins NBA play on: Miami Heat -6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 7:40pm ET - The Warriors are in a tough scheduling situation here which is why this line is as high as it is in Miami’s favor. Golden State played last night with the “big 3” (Green, Butler, Curry) all logging 31+ minutes. This is the Warriors 6th game in nine days, 3rd in four days and the second of a B2B so don’t be surprised if several players are rested tonight. Golden State has an overall average point differential of minus -5.8ppg on the season with a below average offensive efficiency rating (23rd) and slightly better than average dEFF (11th). Miami has been a big surprise this season and have played at the fastest pace in the league. They are 6-1 SU at home with a +6.8ppg average +/-. The Heat are about league average in both oEFF and dEFF but simply out score opponents with volume. Miami is the 8th best shooting team at 48.8%, 4th in 3PT% at 38.5%. They should get plenty of open looks against a fatigued Warriors team that ranks 20th in opponents FG% and 15th in 3PT% allowed. Miami has the 3rd best FG% and 3PT% defense in the NBA which will limit Golden State on the offensive end. Don’t be intimidated by the spread on this game which looks unusually high, but they made it this for a reason. Bet Miami.

ASAwins NBA play on: Over 228.5 Knicks @ Mavericks – 9:30pm ET - Last season these two met twice and the games exploded for 243 and 241 total points. That wasn’t a fluke; both teams still love to get up and down. Dallas plays at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA (102.9) while the Knicks sit right around league average (100.3). More importantly, New York brings the 3rd-best offense in the league (121.1 points per 100 possessions) to town tonight. Dallas ranks dead-last in offensive efficiency on the season (105.0), but they’ve woken up lately, posting 107.1 over their last 5. The bigger story is Dallas’ defense, which looks elite on paper (3rd-best DefRtg), but has been torched recently: 116 to Milwaukee, 123 to Phoenix, 133 to the Clippers, 133 to Portland, and 120 to Minnesota. Every one of those opponents is worse offensively than these Knicks. New York has also been living in the Over lately — their last 6 straight games have all totaled at least 228 points. League-wide scoring is sitting at ~234 points per game this season, making this total look suspiciously low.