Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#712 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska -16 over Maryland, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Terps. First off, they stink on the road with a 1-7 Big 10 record away from home. All but 1 of those losses have come by double digits including losing by 11 @ Rutgers who rates as the worst team in the conference. Their average loss on the road in Big 10 play is by 18 points and now they face one of the best teams in the nation on the road. Despite their 4-12 record in conference play, they’ve actually faced a fairly generous strength of schedule (8th in the Big 10) and faced only 4 games thus far vs the top 5 in the conference (Michigan, Illinois, Michigan St, Purdue, and Nebraska) who all sit in KenPom’s top 11 nationally. They’ve lost all of those games (home or away) by at least 18 points and the average loss in those 4 games is by 27.5 points. The Terps like to shoot the 3 ball (46th nationally in percentage of shots from 3) but they are not good at it (272nd nationally and 15th in the Big 10). Here they face a Nebraska defense that ranks #1 in the conference and 9th in the nation allowing opponents to shoot only 29% from deep. That’s bad news for a Maryland team that already struggles to score on the road averaging just 66 PPG and facing a Husker D that gives up only 60 PPG at home. On the other end, Nebraska also loves to shoot the 3 (8th nationally in percentage of shots from beyond the arc) and they make them at a high rate (1st in the Big 10 in conference games at 38%). The Maryland D struggles big time guarding the arc allowing opponents 37.5% on the season (356th in the nation). The Huskers should get plenty of extra opportunities as well with their defense creating turnovers at a 20% rate (1st in Big 10 play) and Maryland’s offense giving the ball away at an 18% rate (15th in conference play). The Huskers also have a huge edge from the FT line making 79% of their freebies in conference play to just 67% for Maryland. There are 4 teams in the Big 10 that rank outside the top 100 nationally per KenPom (Rutgers, PSU, Maryland, and Oregon). Nebraska has faced 2 of those teams at home winning by 23 vs Penn State and by 35 vs Oregon. We look for another blowout tonight.

#684 ASA PLAY ON St Joes -1 over George Mason, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met just on February 7th @ George Mason and the Patriot squeaked out an 80-72 win which ended up being their largest lead of the game. It was basically a dead even contest with each leading for about 43% of the game (14% of the time they were tied). That was despite St Joes shooting only 31% from the field (GM shot 41%) and 27% from deep. The Hawks also only went to the FT line 4 times the entire team (made 2) while George Mason made 10 FT’s. Even with those numbers, the game still went to the wire. The 8 point margin was a bit deceiving as it was a 2 point game with under 1:00 minute remaining. The Hawks now get a shot at George Mason at home where they are 11-3 on the season. There are 4 teams in the A10 ranked in the top 100 per KenPom (St Louis, VCU, George Washington, and Dayton) and St Joes is 2-0 at home vs those teams topping GW and Dayton. The Patriots are in a bit of a free fall after starting the conference slate with an 8-1 record, they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 with their only win during that stretch coming at home vs this St Joes team. They are 4-4 on the road this season but have lost 3 of their last 4 away from home. Mason’s 4 road wins in A10 play have all come vs the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference (Loyola, LaSalle, Fordham and St Bonnies) and only by an average of 6 PPG. These 2 sit tied in 4th place in the A10 with 9-5 record but St Joes is playing the much better ball winning 9 of their last 12 with their 3 losses all coming by 8 points or less. The Hawks have covered 5 of their last 6 at home and they are 5-2 ATS in A10 play. George Mason is just 2-5 ATS on the road in conference play and we like St Joes at this short number.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 10:10 pm ET - The Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla is very good in the 2nd night of a back to back but this is going to be a different animal tonight. Boston is playing their 4th straight road game and the previous three were all ‘big’ games against the Warriors, Lakers and Suns. This will also be their 3rd game in four nights AND they’re playing in altitude in Denver. The other schedule disadvantage for Boston is the fact the Nuggets have been off Sunday and were embarrassed on national TV by the Warriors. Denver is getting a little healthier with the return of Cam Johnson and Christian Braun giving them some much needed depth. Denver is 46-28 SU at home since the start of last season with an average +/- of +5.0ppg. They are exceptional off a loss with a 42-17 SU record since 2024, winning those games by an average of 5.3ppg. Boston has been fantastic on the road this season at 20-10 SU but this is a difficult spot for them. Denver should have an advantage from beyond the arc with the best 3PT% in the NBA at 39.4% going up against a C’s defense that ranks 17th in opponents 3PT% shooting. Denver also has the 8th best 3PT% shooting defense in the NBA which should contain the Celtics 10th rated 3-point shooting. We will lay the points with the home team that is rested and off a loss.