Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#653 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma -3.5 over West Virginia, Sunday at 5:30 PM ET - We were on the Sooners yesterday vs Baylor and picked up an easy win 82-69 leading for 90% of the game. After a poor shooting night vs Colorado in round 1 (just 37%), the Sooners rebounded nicely hitting 50% vs the Bears. This is a very good shooting team that is in the top 45 nationally in eFG% and 3 point FG% while ranking in the top 20 in offensive efficiency. As we stated yesterday, OU’s numbers since early February have been very impressive as they are a top 20 team metrically and rank 11th in offensive efficiency during that stretch. They have now won 10 of their las 13 games including a number of wins over NCAA tourney teams including Vanderbilt, Texas, Georgia, Missouri, and Texas A&M. This offense shoots a lot of 3’s (44% of their FG attempts come from deep) and they hit them at a high rate (almost 37%). WVU has solid defensive numbers but their weakness is defending the arc where they barely rank inside the top 200. Offensively, the Mountaineers are not good. They rolled over Creighton yesterday with an outlier offensive performance hitting 53% overall and 40% from 3 point land. That’s from a team that has shot just 44% on the season (241st) and 32% from deep (246th). The prior game, a come from behind OT win over Stanford, they made only 2 of 20 from deep. This is not a good offensive team as they finished 15th in the Big 12 in efficiency and dead last (16th) in 3 point FG%. They are also one of the worst FT shooting teams in the country (328th making only 68%) which could definitely bit them in a tight game (Sooners shoot 75% from the FT line). One of OU’s weaknesses is on the defensive glass but that shouldn’t be a huge factor here as WVU is a poor offensive rebounding team (12th in the Big 12). Oklahoma is better on the offensive glass (90th in the country / WVU is 178th) and they turn the ball over at a much lower rate (29th in the country to 191st for WVU). The Sooners have already taken out 2 Big 12 teams to get to this point (Colorado & Baylor) and they get their shot at a 3rd today. Big offensive edge for Oklahoma and we’ll lay the short number in the Crown Championship game.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3.5 at Golden State Warriors 10pm ET - The Warriors are not the same Warriors that it was in the past and to be honest, and are barely above the likes of Memphis, New Orleans and Dallas, even though they have 10 more wins on the season. Golden State is 4-11 SU in their last 15 games and the 4 wins came against Washington twice, Brooklyn by 3-points and Dallas in OT. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since March 5th and coincidentally that team was Houston by 2-points in OT. Golden State is pretty much locked into the 10th seed in the Western Conference and are just trying to stay somewhat healthy. Houston on the other hand still has a shot at the 4 seed which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs. Houston has won 5 straight games and 7 of their last nine overall. One of those losses came recently in Minnesota where they were a 2-point favorite. The loss isn’t the interesting factor in that game, it’s the spread of -2 which is obviously slightly lower than today’s spread against a far worse GST team. These two teams played on this court in November with the Rockets winning 104-100 and that was without Durant playing for Houston, while the Warriors had Butler, Curry and Green in the lineup. Houston has the 7th best average +/- over the last 10-games of +10.4ppg. Golden State has an average +/- scoring differential of minus -7.3ppg over that same 10-game period. Houston is healthy and will win this game by 4+ points.

ASA NBA play on OVER 238.5 Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:10pm ET - Indiana is doing one thing really well right now and that’s shooting the basketball. The Pacers have the best eFG% in the NBA over the last 5-games at 62.5%, and last 10 games at 62.2%. Overall, the Pacers offenses has been dialed in with the 6th best offensive rating over that same 10-game stretch. Defense, not so much as they rank 29th in defensive rating in their last 10. Indiana is also playing up-tempo with the 4th fastest pace of play over the last 5-games. Indiana just played the Hornets, and the two teams produced 237 total points. Charlotte is better defensively than the Cavs, play slower with the two teams being near-equal offensively. As far as the Cavs are concerned, they will be well rested here with their last game being April 2nd. When the Cavs have played with 2-3 days rest they have gone OVER in 6 of nine games with an average OVER of +13.8ppg. Cleveland scored 120+ in 7 of their last twelve games and come into this game with the 6th best offensive efficiency rating at 1.190-points per possession. They play at an above average pace and have a defensive efficiency rating of 1.149ppp allowed which ranks 14th. On the subject of defense, the Cavs have allowed 120+ in 4 of their last six games. In the three meetings this season these two teams produced 229, 254 and 236 total points. With the current trends of each we expect a game well into the 240’s on Sunday.

#918 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 (-125) over Miami Marlins, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - This game might start a little later than the scheduled first pitch as some rain could move through the Bronx around mid-day. However, once this game gets underway it is likely to be another blowout win for New York. The Yankees have won 4 straight and in their 7-1 start to the season all 7 wins have been by a multi-run margin. The Marlins are 5-3 this season but their 5 wins came against the teams that were the worst in each league last season respectively. Miami beat up on the AL-worst White Sox and NL-worst Rockies to begin the season. Now they are facing a much tougher opponent here and that is showing as the Marlins have lost both games and by an aggregate score of 17 to 9. All 3 of Miami's losses this season have been by 2+ runs. The Yankees also have a massive pitching edge here as Max Fried is going for the Bronx Bombers while the Fish have Chris Paddack slated to get the start here. Paddack is coming off a 5-12 season in which he compiled a 5.35 ERA. His first start of the season was a disaster too even though it was against the White Sox. As for Fried, he is coming off another fantastic season and also has started this season with a perfect 2-0 record. The southpaw has allowed only 5 hits in his 13 and 1/3 scoreless innings so far. Dominating home win in the forecast here in the Bronx Sunday. Lay the 1.5 runs Friday with the New York Yankees

#1 ASA NHL PLAY ON Minnesota Wild Money Line (-115) over Detroit Red Wings, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Wild are off a 4-1 win yesterday while the Red Wings are also in a B2B but off a 4-1 loss. This one is a case of two teams heading opposite directions right now as playoff pressure has been heating up for each team. Detroit has lost 15 of its last 23 games. Minnesota has won 17 of its last 28 games including key B2B wins as they enter this battle at Detroit. The Wild have also been road warriors with wins in 10 of their last 15 away from home. The Red Wings have lost 8 of last 10 games on home ice including 3 in a row! Look for this one to make it 4 in a row as Detroit's collapse continues here late in the season. Minnesota Wild Money Line is the play in this one!

Italian Serie A #201217/201218 ASA PLAY ON Over 2 Goals (-133) – Torino at Pisa, Sunday at 12 ET - Excellent value here as getting to 2 goals gets us a push here and we are predicting much more with a 2-2 draw or at least a 2-1 final here.  These two clubs are conceding the highest average goals in all of Serie A as both are allowing 1.8 goals per match.  When these clubs met at Torino earlier this season the final score was 2-2 and we would not be surprised to see a similar result here.  Both clubs have been struggling defensively this season and there is reason to believe both clubs will have success offensively here.  Torino has been shutout only once in its last 9 matches and has averaged 1.8 goals scored in the other 8 matches.  Pisa is off a shutout road loss but scored 3 goals in their most recent match at home.  Pisa has been shutout once in the last 5 matches as a host but did average scoring 1.5 goals in the other 4 matches.  7 of Torino's last 8 matches totaled 3+ goals.  6 of Pisa's last 9 matches totaled 3+ goals.  5 of those 6 totaled at least 4 goals!  Per our computer math model, a 2-2 or 2-1 final are the most likely outcomes in this one.  Take advantage of the over being set at only 2 goals in this one.  Over is a top game bet for us here.