Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA free play on Chicago Bulls -118 vs. New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET - There is something very strange about this game/line as the Pelicans are getting a ton of support from the public, yet the line moved from them being favored to the Bulls now laying -1.5-points. This will be the first time this season the Pelicans ‘were’ a road favorite and we’re not so sure they are better than the injury depleted Bulls. Chicago will be without Giddy and White but expect Tre Jones and Ayo Dosunmu to step up in their absence. The Pelicans have their own concerns with depth as Herb Jones and Alvarado are both out of the line up tonight. The Pelicans have an efficiency differential of minus -7.2 on the season, the Bulls are better overall at -4.1. New Orleans is just 2-11 SU on the road this season whereas the Bulls are a respectable 8-8 SU at home. The Bulls have lost to the Pelicans twice this season which should mean we get a focused effort out of the Chicago roster tonight. Play on the Bulls.

#712 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -20 over St Joes, Wednesday at 4 PM ET - St Joes has played one of the easiest schedules in the country (333rd SOS) yet they already have 5 losses. They’ve only beaten 1 team ranked inside the top 250 and they are 0-4 in true road games. The Hawks have dropped nearly 100 spots in the KenPom rankings since the start of the year and now barely sit inside the top 200 (197th). Their situation isn’t ideal as their head coach left in September to join the NY Knicks staff leaving them in limbo. They did hire Penn coach Steve Donahue who had losing seasons in 3 of his last 4 years for the Quakers. His system doesn’t necessarily fit the players on this team. The Hawks are a poor shooting team ranking outside the top 320 in both FG% and 3 point FG% and they are facing an elite St Louis D that ranks inside the top 10 in the nation in both FG% and 3 point FG% allowed. The Billikens are also outstanding on offense ranking 16th in FG% and scoring over 90 PPG (3rd in the nation). STL’s only loss came by 1 point @ Stanford and they’ve already topped 3 top 100 teams this season. 8 of their 12 wins have come by more than 20 points and they topped St Joe’s here by 16 last year and this year’s STL team is currently ranked nearly 100 spots higher than last year’s team while this year’s St Joe’s team is currently more than 100 spots lower than last year’s team. St Louis will be the highest rated team the Hawks have played so far this season and this one could get ugly.

ASA NBA play on Washington Wizards +11.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - The Bucks have Giannis back in the lineup, but the facts are they weren’t great with him early this season and we’re not sure they should be laying double-digits here. On the season the Bucks have the 20th rated Net rating at -2.8 and they currently sit 11th in the East. Washington has a season long Net rating of -11.9 but in their last 10 games they’ve played significantly better with a Net rating of -3.8. In fact, in comparing each teams last 10 games we see the Wiz have a better scoring differential of -3.4ppg versus the Bucks at -5.1ppg. Historically we like to fade teams coming off extended road trips which is the case for Milwaukee as they just played 5 straight away from home. The Wizards are 2-1 SU their last 3 games with solid wins against the Raptors and Grizzlies before a 14-point loss to the Suns. This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these two teams with the series tied 1-1 and we expect Washington to keep this game close.

#257 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +9.5 over Ohio St, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - @ Arlington, TX - Too many points here in our opinion. Our power ratings have this line at a TD in favor of OSU so we have some value with the Canes. 2 high level defensive teams with a very low total (41 right now) makes the points even more valuable. Miami is off an impressive win as a dog @ Texas A&M. Both defenses dominated that game and the Canes rush D held the Aggies to 89 yards on 2.5 YPC. A&M entered that game averaging 188 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC so a very impressive performance by Miami who is allowing only 87 YPG rushing on the year. The Canes also beat Notre Dame this year and those 2 wins (A&M and ND) are the 2 most impressive wins for either of these teams this season. OSU was very good this year but their best win was maybe 14-7 at home vs Texas? A Longhorn team that turned out to be not as good as advertised. Maybe their win over Michigan to end the season? A Michigan program that was, and is, in disarray. In their one “step up” type game this year vs a very high level opponent, the Buckeyes lost in the Big 10 Championship game vs Indiana. OSU’s only TD in their game vs Indiana was a 25 yard drive after an interception. They did very little offensively especially on the ground where they had 58 yards rushing. Neither team will be able to run much in this game with 2 outstanding, top 10 rush defenses. Both QB’s are outstanding with Miami’s Beck throwing for 3200 yards and 26 TD’s and OSU’s Saying throwing for 3300 yards and 31 TD’s. Both complete over 70% of their passes. Miami had a few hiccups vs SMU in OT (outgained SMU by 50 yards) and vs Louisville (lost by 3 but had 5 turnovers). This team can lose focus at times during the year when favored but when dialed in, they are as talented as anyone. Canes are 2-0 ATS as a dog this year winning both outright. If both these teams are at their best, there is not a 10 point difference. We’ll take the points

#249 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +5.5 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - Iowa is healthy for this one and they’ll have their full roster in tact for this game according to head coach Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes finished with an 8-4 record and all 4 losses were by 5 points or less. That includes a tight 5 point loss vs #1 Indiana and a 2 point loss vs Oregon, both CFP teams. This team rarely loses by margin including the post-season as they are 4-3 SU in bowl games since 2017 with 2 of those losses coming by 3 points. They’ve only lost 7 games by 10 or more points in their last 52 contests and 5 of those setbacks came at the hands of Ohio St, Michigan, or Penn St. The defense simply finds a way to shut teams down. Even high level offensive teams. This year they held Indiana to 20 points (they average 39 PPG), USC to 26 points (they average 36 PPG) and Oregon to 18 points (they average 37 points). Iowa ranks in the top 10 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring D (15 PPG allowed) and they are at full strength with a full key pieces back from injury. Vandy’s offense has been very good this year but they’ve had a few bumps in the road vs high level defenses. They only faced 2 teams that ended the year in the top 25 in total defense and scored 14 and 17 points in those 2 games (vs Bama & Missouri). Vanderbilt QB Pavia had a really good year but he seems to be a bit distracted right now with his Heisman trophy presentation antics (basically ripped on the voters for not selecting him) and he has filed a lawsuit to attempt to play again next year despite using up his eligibility. We think Iowa’s defense will give him big problems. Iowa’s offense can be tough to watch at times but they did average 29 PPG this season and topped 30 points in half of their games (6). The Commodores defense is solid but not great ranking 55th in total D and 59th in YPP allowed. We think Iowa does enough on offense to keep this game close. They are 3-0-1 ATS as a dog this year and we like them to cover this one.