Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -4 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8pm ET - The biggest game on the docket tonight is this one and we will be on the home team minus the points. San Antonio is at a clear scheduling disadvantage here having played last night against the Jazz. This will also be the Spurs 3rd game in 4 nights, 4th in six days AND 7th in eleven days. Absolutely a horrible schedule situation for San Antonio. Meanwhile the Rockets have been at home since Jan 13th and have 1 day rest for tonight. Houston is 14-3 SU on their home court and the three losses have come to the three best teams in the NBA (Det, OKC, Denver) who have a combined 96-32 record. The Rockets average Margin of Victory at home is +9.1ppg this season. The Spurs are a very good road team at 13-8 SU this season but this is a tough spot. Plus, they beat the Rockets earlier this season and hold a 3.5 game lead in the division. The Rockets have an efficiency edge defensively, the Spurs have a slight advantage offensively. The advantage the Rockets can use to their advantage tonight will be 3-point shooting. The Rockets have the 6th best 3PT% (37%) going up against a Spurs D that allows 36.1% (18th). The home team has won and covered 4 of the last five in this State rivalry.

Champions League #224201/224202 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-110) – Club Brugge at Kairat, Tuesday at 10:30 am ET - Look for a rather wide-open match here. Kairat Almaty is hosting this match and their most recent Champions League match was a 1-0 loss but this followed a number of high-scoring games. In Champions League games prior to that one, 4 of 5 Kairat matches totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4.5 goals apiece. Club Brugge is favored on the road here and will take advantage of facing a foe they should be able to hold the upper hand against. The visitors have scored multiple goals in 7 of last 9 games overall and a stretch of high-scoring battles have been the theme. 8 of those 9 matches reached a total of 3+ goals. Club Brugge will score very well here but it is also difficult to trust a defense that has played a role in this team allowing an average of 2.1 goals in the last 8 games. We look for a 3-2 or at least 3-1 final when all is said and done in this one. Per all of the above, you can see why we like the over plenty here and why we have no hesitation in grabbing this total and only having to lay minimal juice with the over at 3 goals!

ASA play on: Chicago Bulls -3.5 vs. LA Clippers, 8PM ET - The Clippers are on the second night of a back-to-back after playing in Washington on Monday, and they've struggled significantly in these situations this season. They've gone 1-5 straight up when playing without rest, with an average loss margin of -6.3 points per game on the second day of a back-to-back — that's a clear fatigue and performance drop-off for a road-weary squad. Meanwhile, the Bulls are rolling at home. They just crushed the Nets by 22 points on Sunday, extending their current home winning streak to 3 straight. Chicago has won 5 of their last 6 at the United Center. We like the Bulls at home here.

#660 ASA PLAY ON Missouri +1.5 over Georgia, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot for Mizzou coming off a road loss @ LSU facing UGA who is coming off a big home win vs Arkansas. We’re getting excellent value here on the Tigers at home where they are 11-0 this season including wins over high level opponents Florida & Auburn. In fact, the Gators currently rank 9th per KenPom and have only 1 loss since December 9th and that was @ Missouri. The Tigers have one of the largest home/road dichotomies in the country averaging 89 PPG at home and just 68 PPG on the road. Their average margin of their home games is +20 PPG while on the road they are -8 PPG. Missouri is one of the best shooting teams in the country hitting 51% of their shots (13th nationally) but at home that number jumps to almost 56% including 39% from 3. The only 2 teams in the country that shoot a higher percentage in their home games are Arizona and Gonzaga. UGA has only played 3 true road games this season and while they are 2-1 in those games, their 2 wins came vs South Carolina (2nd lowest rated team in the SEC) in a game they only led for 33% of the time and vs Florida State who is 7-11 and rated 112th nationally. Their one good opponent on the road was @ Florida who rolled the Bulldogs 92-77. The Dawgs have not had much success on the road in SEC play winning just 7 of their conference road 38 games since the start of the 2021 season. We like Missouri to win this one at home.

#656 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas -122 over Vanderbilt, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We were on Vandy on Saturday vs Florida which turned out to be our only loss of the day in hoops. The Commodores were coming off a 16 points loss @ Texas and were “all in” on their home game vs the Gators. They put in a lot of time and effort into trying to pick up that home win vs a top 10 opponent and came up short losing 98-94. Vandy shot 51% in the game, 36% from 3 and made 20 off their 22 FT’s and still lost at home. We can’t imagine there won’t be some type of letdown on the road after that devastating loss. The Dores are 4-1 on the road this year, however all of their wins have come vs teams outside the top 40 and their 1 road game vs a team inside the top 40 was a 16 point loss (Arkansas ranks 23rd). The Razorbacks have played the 9th most difficult schedule in the country but they are still 13-5 on the year. All 5 losses came on the road vs top 35 teams including 3 top 10 teams (Houston, Michigan St, and Duke). After each of their first 4 losses this season, Arkansas has bounced back with a win and cover in their following game. They are off a poor performance on Saturday losing @ Georgia 90-74. They are 10-0 at home this year (8-2 ATS) with 8 of those wins coming by at least 9 points including topping Tennessee by 11 and Louisville by 9. The Razors also beat a very good Texas Tech team by 7 on a neutral court this season. At home they are shooting over 51% and scoring 97 PPG with a winning margin of +24 PPG which ranks in the top 20 nationally (home winning margin). While we don’t think this will be a blowout, with the spread currently at -1 all we need is a win from Arkansas and we’re confident about that.