Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

ASA NBA play on UNDER 213.5 Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:10 pm ET - The first two games of this series stayed below the totals but the 3rd snuck over the number with 225 total points being scored. Today’s game will shift back to an UNDER based on pace of play, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency metrics. The volume of field goal attempts in this series has been pretty consistent with 164, 161 and 165. Game 3 went OVER the total largely due to the Cavs having a great shooting night at 58% overall and 38% from deep. The Cavs are one of the leagues better shooting teams at 48.1% on the season but it’s unrealistic to expect them to shoot at 58% again in Game 4. Especially when you consider they are facing a Pistons defense that allowed the 3rd lowest percentage in the NBA this season at 44.1%. In the playoffs thus far the Pistons are the 12th slowest paced teams, the Cavs are the 9th slowest. Detroit’s offense in the playoffs has been ‘average’ with a Net rating of 110.2 and an eFG% that ranks 10th out of the 16 playoff teams. With the oddsmakers adjusting the line up slightly after G3 we will bet the value and play UNDER tonight.

#905 ASA TOP PLAY ON New York Yankees Run Line -1.5 (-100) over Baltimore Orioles, Monday at 6:35 PM ET - The Orioles are likely starting Brandon Young and he is expected to be facing southpaw Ryan Weathers of the Yankees.  There are a ton of edges for New York in this one including the fact that Baltimore is 0-9 this season against left-handed starters.  Also, the Orioles faced the Yankees in the Bronx earlier this month and lost all 4 games in true blowout fashion.  In fact the aggregate score of the 4 games was a whopping 39 to 10.  This shapes up to be another blowout.  The Orioles Young went 0-4 with an 8.72 ERA in his 7 home starts last year in his rookie season.  This year Young has again struggled and his two home starts have seen him compile a 6.52 ERA and he allowed 16 hits in 9 and 2/3 innings in those two starts.  This was after allowing 47 hits in 32 innings at home last season!  Young should get pummeled again here while the Yankees Weathers now has a 3.57 ERA in 31 starts the last 3 seasons combined.  This includes a solid 5-inning win versus the Orioles in that 4-game Yankees sweep earlier this month.  The Yankees will be in bounce back mode here after a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers in Milwaukee this past weekend.  Keep in mind the Yankees entered that series on a 16-3 run!  Here they will take advantage of facing an Orioles side that is off a 2-1 win yesterday but that had lost 8 of 10 games prior to that victory.  We look for the Orioles to drop to 0-10 on the season when facing a left-handed starter.  As for having confidence to invest in the run line here, note that 23 of 26 Yankees wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs.  Also, 17 of the Orioles 23 losses this season have been defeats by a margin of 2+ runs.  This game has the right ingredients to be a road rout and this is a great spot Monday.  We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line for a top game in this one!

Liga Portugal (Primeria Liga): #206610 ASA PLAY ON Benfica Goal Line -1.25 (-107) over Braga, Monday at 3:15 ET - Great spot for a home blowout.  Braga is off a disappointing 3-1 loss in mid-week action in Germany as they were battling in Europa League action.  Benfica has a significant rest edge here as a result.  Also, Benfica is going for the #2 spot in the table for the season and, though Braga is also a solid club the visitors have been quite inconsistent in recent weeks.  Benfica, on the other hand, has revenge from a 3-1 loss to Braga in League Cup action in January.  Being at home for this rematch is a big boost for Benfica as they have won 3 straight on their home pitch and the 3 victories came by an aggregate score of 9 to 1.  That is domination and we expect more of the same here as Benfica gets some revenge and they take advantage of a worn-out Braga side that is playing for the 4th time in 12 days while this will be just the 2nd game for Benfica from April 26th until today, May 11th.  Huge situational edge and the fact the goal line is at -1.25 means that if Benfica wins this match by only 1 goal it would only be a half-loss at the books.  However, we certainly are not expecting only a 1-goal win, we are confident in yet another home win by a multi-goal margin for the hosts in this one.  We will take Benfica on the goal line at -1.25 goals here in Benfica Monday.