Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#813 SIU Edwardsville +25.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8 PM ET - SIUE is the highest rated team Wisconsin has faced this season currently sitting at #180 per KenPom yet the spread is similar to the Badgers games vs NIU (304th) and Ball State (263rd). Another comparison is Wisconsin’s first opponent, Campbell, sits about 10 spots below SIUE in the KenPom rankings and the spread for that game was +21. Value is on the Cougars here who are 2-0 SU this season as an underdog including beating Drake on the road over the weekend. The Cougs made the NCAA tourney last year with a 22-12 record and they return 5 of their top 8 players from a season ago. Their only chance to keep this game close is to play with a slow tempo (297th in adjusted tempo) and shorten this game. They have a very good defense ranking 82nd in defensive efficiency, 20th in FG% allowed and 58th in 3 point FG% allowed. They have held all 3 of their D1 opponents to 64 points or less (Drake, Indiana State, and UTSA). The Cougars also have the size up front to compete with the Badgers with 2 starters at 6’9 and 7’1 and a few bench players with size as well. We don’t expect Wisconsin to shoot 50% here which is their average on the season. They’ve faced 3 defenses ranked 336th, 276th, and 194th in efficiency. The Badgers have a HUGE revenge game on deck later this week vs BYU who knocked them out of the NCAA tourney last year winning by 2 points. They’ll be fine with getting out of here with any type of win and moving onto that game. We’ll take the points.

ASAwins NHL play on OVER 6.5 goal Edmonton at Buffalo, 7pm ET - Tonight’s Edmonton at Buffalo game is the clearest high-event spot on the slate, with the model projecting 7.2 total goals and finding an 8% edge on the Over 6.5 (currently -120 juice). Both teams rank top-8 in pace and expected goals over the last 10 games, Edmonton’s power play remains lethal on the road, and Buffalo’s goaltending has been leaky against high-danger chances. With the total shaded to the over at -20 already, the model still sees strong value pushing past 6.5 in what should be an up-tempo, mistake-filled affair in KeyBank Center. Edmonton on 5-1 run to the OVER, Buffalo OVER in 4 straight.

ASAwins NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 vs. L.A. Clippers, 7pm ET - This is a very favorable scheduling spot for the Sixers who have had 2 days of rest and now face a Clippers team playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back. The Clippers lost a hard-fought game in Boston yesterday 118-121 and are now just 2-8 SU in their last ten games with 5 of those L’s coming by more than 6-points. We love the fact that Philly is rested, but also coming off a loss in their most recent game in Detroit 105-114. The 76ers continue to be undervalued by the oddsmakers as witnessed by their 8-1-1 ATS record in their last 10 games. Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in six home games this season, the two losses are respectable coming against Detroit and Boston and 3 of the four wins have come by more than tonight’s spread. The Clippers are 1-4 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -10ppg. In each team's last ten games the Clippers have a negative net rating of -7.4, the Sixers have a positive net rating of +2.9 which is a great indicator of where these teams currently stand. This game have blowout written all over it.

#478 ASA PLAY ON Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 over Dallas Cowboys, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We have to take more than a FG here with the Raiders at home vs the worst defense in the NFL. Hard to lay points on the road with a terrible defense, much less more than a FG and on the road so Dallas is a fade here. The Raiders have actually been competitive over the last month with their only no show vs KC on the road. They took Denver to the wire on the road in their most recent game and lost by 1 point at home vs Jacksonville a week prior to that. In their 10-7 loss @ Denver the Las Vegas defense held the Broncos to 3.9 YPP and the Raiders missed a FG late that would have tied the game. In their OT loss at home to the Jags a week earlier they outplayed Jacksonville (5.5 YPP to 4.8 YPP) but a failed 2 point conversion in OT was the difference. Big edge here to the Raider defense that has held 4 of their last 6 opponents to less than 5.0 YPP (Denver, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Chicago). They are in the top 10 in YPP, YPC, and YP pass completion allowed. They are a top 10 defense per DVOA while Dallas ranks 31st in that metric ahead of only Cincinnati. The Raiders only stinker at home was vs the LA Chargers (lost by 11) otherwise their other 3 home tilts were a win and two 1-point losses. Dallas has 1 road win on the season (@ NY Jets) and their 4 road losses have come by an average of 11 PPG. They are trending down having lost 3 of their last 4 games and the last 2 were double digit losses @ Denver and at home vs Arizona. The offense has carried this team, as we all know, as the D ranks 28th or over in total YPG, YPP, yards rushing and yards passing per game. The offense hasn’t looked great the last 2 games totaling 41 points while averaging barely 5.0 YPP. If they struggle again tonight vs a good LV defense, Dallas is cooked. The Boys have been road favorites just 4 times since the start of last season and covered only 1 of those games (@ Jets). Let’s take the points.