Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

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ASAwins FREE CBB PLAY ON Eastern Michigan -3.5 over Northern Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

We’ve been on EMU each of their last 2 games, one an ATS win and one an ATS loss.  As we’ve said in each of our last 2 write ups regarding Eastern Michigan, this team is peaking right now.  Even in their 64-55 loss on Saturday, it looked for much of the game they would win outright @ Ball State as they held an 11 point lead at half and led for much of the 2nd half.  The Eagles (+6 @ Ball State) still held that 11 point lead with less than 10 minutes remaining in the game.  However, they were outscored by 20 points over the final 9:00 minutes giving Ball State the 9 point win which was their largest lead of the game.  Now we’re getting the Eagles back at home as a small favorite, in a revenge game, coming off that disappointing ending on Saturday.  We expect they’ll play very well.  EMU has one of the top defenses in the MAC (2nd in defensive efficiency) and they are facing a NIU team that simply doesn’t shoot the ball well (12th in the MAC in eFG%).  The first meeting between these 2 was in the middle of EMU’s 0-7 start to conference play.  The Eagles (+5) took NIU to the wire losing 71-68.  Now we get Eastern at home and playing much better than they were at that time as they’ve won 5 of their last 7 with their only losses @ Akron by 1 (best team in the MAC) and @ Ball State by 9 (EMU led by double digits in 2nd half).  This is not a great match up for Northern Illinois.  As we mentioned they struggle on offense, especially away from home, where they average only 64 PPG.  They are facing a very good Eastern Michigan defense that is allowing 58 PPG at home.  NIU fouls a lot and Eastern gets to the line more than any other team in the MAC.  NIU defends the 3 very well but they aren’t nearly as good defending inside the arc.  EMU doesn’t shoot a lot of 3’s and scores the majority of their points inside the arc.  The Eagles have topped the Huskies 10 straight times here at home and they make it 11 on Tuesday.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Mississippi State -4 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

We faded Bama on Saturday @ Ole Miss and the Tide played possibly their best game of the season.  They routed Mississippi by 25 points, shot 55% for the game (9% above their average), 43% from beyond the arc (7% above their average) and scored a ridiculous 103 points (20 points above their average).  It was just one of those games for Bama where everything went right.  We love looking to go against those teams in their following game as they tend to come back to earth, especially if that game is on the road.  We’re also getting a solid Mississippi State team (17-10 overall / 8-6 in the SEC) coming off a road loss as a favorite @ Texas A&M.  The Bulldogs are a definite bubble team and they travel for 2 more road games @ Mizzou and @ South Carolina after this game making this a very important home game.  MSU is 6-1 at home in SEC play with their only loss coming vs Auburn in the conference opener back in early January.  Their average margin of victory at home is +12 and they shoot nearly 50% from the field here.  The Bulldogs are also the #1 FT shooting team in the SEC (conference play) hitting 79% so if they need to hold a lead late, chances are they will.  They should also dominate the boards in this game as they are one of the best rebounding teams in the conference (#2 offensive rebounding & #2 defensive rebounding) and they face a Crimson Tide team that is one of the worst on the boards.  Bama won the first meeting at home behind 49% shooting (38% for MSU) and +11 margin at the FT line.  That changes tonight as we fully expect Mississippi State to play some extra fire with Alabama potentially coming in a bit full of themselves off their big road win Saturday.  Lay the number.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Ole Miss +8.5 over Auburn, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

We were on Ole Miss on Saturday at home vs Bama and they laid a complete egg losing 103-78 as a 2.5 point favorite.  The Rebels had been playing very well leading into that contest and we think they bounce back and play well here after that embarrassing performance at home.  They’ll have some definite motivation here as they blew a 17 point halftime lead at home vs Auburn just a few weeks ago and lost in double OT 83-82.  Ole Miss matches up very well with the Tigers having beaten them twice last year and taking them to double OT this season.  The Rebels have also had great success @ Auburn winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.  They have one of the top players in the conference in guard Tyree (leads the SEC in scoring at 21 PPG) and his backcourt mate Shuler is a veteran as well.  We really like the Rebels veteran guards on the road vs an overvalued Auburn team.  Four of the Tigers last six wins have come in OT and they made a monumental comeback here on Saturday erasing a 17 point second half deficit vs Tennessee to pick up the 7 point win.  One of their top players, Isaac Okoro, was out with an injury and is questionable at best for this one.  Even if he does play we expect Auburn to limit him as he has missed 3 straight games not having played since February 12th.  Another key here is Auburn has Kentucky on deck so they want to make sure he’s ready for that game (Tigers lookahead spot here).  Auburn is a poor shooting team (13th in the SEC in eFG% and they are not a great FT shooting team at 68% if they are trying to close the game out late.  We like Ole Miss to give Auburn all they can handle here.  The Tigers have rarely won big in conference play this season – in their last 12 games only 1 win by more than 9 points.  Another Auburn game goes to the wire as we take Mississippi to cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma +2.5 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

This is simply a must win for Oklahoma’s NCAA tourney hopes.  Right now the Sooners are sitting barely in the tourney or barely out of the tourney depending on which bracket expert you follow.  After losing 3 straight games, they can’t afford a loss here with 2 of their last 3 games on the road.  This game isn’t a true home game for them as it will be played in Oklahoma City although the crowd will be all OU.  They’ve also played at this venue once already this season beating Mississippi State in late January.  Oklahoma is coming off 3 straight losses and because of that we’re getting some value in this game.  Let’s keep in mind their 3 losses weren’t necessarily unexpected as they were beaten @ Kansas, lost at home to Baylor, and then lost over the weekend @ Oklahoma State.  The first two setbacks were absolutely expected as they were facing to 2 best teams in the Big 12 and 2 top 5 nationally ranked teams.  We weren’t surprised they lost @ arch rival OSU over the weekend as those first 2 games took a lot out of this team while the Cowboys were playing their Super Bowl, so to speak, at home.  We expect a huge performance after getting embarrassed on Saturday.  The Sooners have lost only 2 home games (including games at OKC) this year and those were vs Kansas & Baylor.  Now they face a young Texas Tech team (3 freshman in their top 7 players) that is coming off a 30-point blowout win @ Iowa State.  The Red Raiders come in fat and happy so to speak while OU Is backed into a corner.  These two met just on February 4th and Tech was an 8.5 point favorite at home.  That tells us this line should be pick-em or OU favored by 1 so the value is there.  In that first meeting Texas Tech won 69-61 and while the Sooners attempted 10 more FG’s, the Raiders shot lights out hitting over 50% for the game and from beyond the arc.  Despite the red hot shooting from Tech, OU led at half and trailed by just 3 with 1:00 minute remaining in the game.  Now they get the Red Raiders away from home where they are just 3-4 SU in conference play.  We like OU to get this much needed win tonight.

ASA’s play on: UNDER 231.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors, 7:30PM ET

This the second meeting of the season for these two teams who met last year in the Eastern Conference Finals. We expect a playoff type atmosphere for this contest north of the border between two teams that feel they can win it all this season. The Raptors last thirteen games have been against a very soft schedule with only three of those games coming against a team with a winning record, and all three were against the Pacers. The last time the Raptors faced a team of the Bucks caliber was back on January 22nd against the 76ers and that game ended with 202 total points. The Bucks played an OT thriller last night against the Wizards but because of their depth, fatigue won’t be an issue tonight. The Bucks games have averaged 227 total points per game when Milwaukee is not rested. When these same two teams squared off earlier this season the posted total on the game was 227 and they combined for 220 total points. In fact, nine of the last ten meeting has resulted in 231 or less total points. These two teams are the two best defensive efficiency teams in the NBA as the Bucks allow just 1.021 points per possession and the Raptors give up just 1.042PPP. This game shapes up to be a very low scoring affair with a playoff like intensity. Bet UNDER!

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Nashville Predators Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

This is a fantastic situation.  Ottawa is playing the 2nd night of a back to back.  The Senators were involved in the only game on the NHL schedule last night as they lost at Columbus in OT.  It was another deflating loss for Ottawa and also their 20th defeat in their last 25 games!  While the Senators are wrapping up a miserable season, the Predators are in the middle of a sprint to the finish over the last six weeks of the regular season as they are very much alive in the playoff race.  Nashville has a big scheduling edge here as they were off both Sunday and Monday.  The Predators also have revenge here as they lost at Ottawa 5-4 in December.  With Marcus Hogberg having gotten the call against the Blue Jackets last night, Craig Anderson is expected to get the start in goal for the Senators tonight.  Anderson is 4-8-1 with a 3.57 GAA in his 15 road games (14 starts) this season.  The Predators will have a huge edge in goal whether they use Pekka Rinne or Juuse Saros.  Both have been great recently and that is why Nashville has allowed only 2.5 goals per game in its last 11 games.  The Predators have averaged nearly 4 goals per game in their last 8 victories.  The Senators have averaged about 1.5 goals per game in their last 16 losses.  Based on the huge edges here it comes as no surprise that the Predators are a -330 favorite on the money line.  Where the value lies in a situation like this is the puck line and with Ottawa likely to be held to just 1 or 2 goals and the Predators likely to score 4 or more goals (see recent averages noted above), we have no hesitation in investing in the puck line (-1.5 goals) in this one.  Per our computer math model, this one is forecast to be a revenging home blowout Tuesday.  Laying the 1.5 goals with Nashville is the value play here.