Sports Handicapper John Ryan's Picks & Predictions

Washington Mystics vs Connecticut Sun
8-Unit Bet on the Sun favored by 9 points.

The following betting algorithm has produced a solid 28-18-2 ATS record good for 61% winning bets since 2011. Simply, bet on teams that scored 90 or more points and with that opponent having committed 10 or more turnovers then our team did. If both these teams made the playoffs in the previous season our favorite has gone 13-4 SUATS good for 77% winning bets.

Pacers vs Nuggets
8:30 ET | ESPN | MSG
8-UNIT bet on the Under priced at 215.5 points

Consider betting 70% preflop on the Under and then look to add 15% more at 219.5 points and the last 15% amount at 223.5 points during the first half of action.

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 62-29 Under Playoff record for 68% winning bets since 2002. The requirements are:

·      Bet the Under in game 6 or 7 of an NBA Playoff series.

·      The home team has won between 50 and 80% of their games in the current season.

·      The total is at least 10 points lower than the NBA season total average, which is 227 points.

From my predictive model we are expecting the Pacers and knicks to combine for 180 or fewer shot attempts and shoot no better than 37% from beyond the arc. In past games in which the Pacers met these measures has seen the Under go 41-13-2 for 76% winning bets. In past games in which the Knicks met these measures has seen the Under go 60-16-3 for 79% winning bets. 

Panthers vs Bruins

7 ET | TNT | TD Garden

8-Unit Bet on the Bruins priced as a 125 underdog.

The following NHL Betting algorithm has produced a 118-123 record averaging a 138 dog wager for a 12.8% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $44,150 profit over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on winning record underdogs using the money line in the playoffs.

·      They are facing a foe that has won 60 to 75% of their games in the current season.

·      That foie has won four or more of their previous games.

If it is a divisional matchup these dogs have produced a 79-75 record averaging a 143 bet for an 18% Roi and making a $37,450 profit for the Dime Bettor.

CWS vs Yankees

7:10 ET | Yankee Stadium

8-Unit bet on the CWS using the money line priced as 235 underdogs.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced an 87-159 record for just 35.4% winning bets, but averaging a 222 underdog bet results in a highly profitable 12% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $34,560 profit over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on underdogs priced at 175 and greater using the money line.

·      The underdog has played five consecutive games and did not have 10 or more hits in any of them.

·      Our underdog has a solid bullpen posting a 3.00 or lower ERA over their last 10 games.

If we drill down farther into the database we learn that if these dogs are priced between a 200 and 250 dog and facing a non-divisional foe they improve to 24-38 for 39% winning bets, but by averaging a 225 wager results in a highly profitable 24% ROI and a $22,350 profit for the Dime Bettor on only 62 bets spanning the past five seasons. So, a bettor following this system is going to lose far more bets than they win, but they know that throughout the season, significant profits have been made in each of the past five seasons.

The White Sox will have right-hander Mike Clevinger on the hill, who is 0-1 in two starts with a 5.40 ERA and a 2.099 WHIP. His second start was significantly better completing 5 1/3 innings allowing one run on four hits and with no free passes. In five career starts against the Yankees, he is 2-2 with a solid 3.00 ERA and a 1.033 WHIP. His last two starts against the Yankees last season saw him go 1-1 winning the last start 9-2 where he completed six strong innings allowing one earned run on three hits with three walks and six strikeouts. 

Clevinger averages 94 MPH which has heavy late-breaking sinking action. He augments his sinker with an extremely good change that averages 86 MPH. These two pitches combine for nearly 70% of his pitches thrown. His change averages a very low 1500 RPM, which accounts for the effect gravity has on that pitch as it gets close to the plate. This combination of pitches works extremely well against an aggressive pull-happy team like the Yankees.

The Yankees will hand the ball to right-hander Nestor Cortez, who is 1-4 in nine starts with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP including 51 strikeouts spanning 53 2/3 innings of work. His fastball accounts for 50% of his pitches thrown, averages 91 MPH, and is slightly below the league average. He then mixes in a curve ball that averages 86 MPH and accounts for 30% of his pitches thrown and uses it against both right and left-handed batters. He also has a pitch that I call a frisbee that averages 14% of his pitches thrown and averages just 77 MPH. 

Cortez has been outstanding when pitching ahead in the count allowing a 0.84 batting average and 28% whiff percentage this season. However, this elite performance level is prone to regression. The White Sox hitters will be prepared to try and get ahead early in the count knowing Cortez has allowed a 0.347 batting average and 18% whiff percentage this season.

After a horrific start to the season that saw them with just three wins in their first 25 games, they have played much better ball since. Over the next 18 games, they have posted a solid 10-8 record averaging a 152 underdog bet resulting in a highly profitable 35% ROI and making the Dime Bettor an $8,680 profit. So, the market has not adjusted its' pricing to the current performance level and remains pricing them as that team that started poorly.

The Yankees are the first AL team to earn 30 wins on the season and in all their games have averaged a -135-wager good for a 14% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $8,740 profit this season. The Yankees have won four consecutive coming off a road sweep of the Minnesota Twins and now begin a seven-game home stand starting with this three-game set against the White Sox. The Yankees are 10-18 in home games when on a two or more-game win streak averaging a 153-favorite resulting in a terrible -38% ROI and causing the Dime Bettor a $14,420 loss in games played over the past two seasons.

Tigers vs Diamondbacks
9:40 ET | Chae Field

8-Unit Bet on the Tigers using the money line.

The following betting algorithm has produced a 59-37 averaging a +114 wager resulting in a $14,030 profit for the Dime Bettor and a robust 28% ROI since 2010. The requirements are:

·       Bet on favorites of 130 and greater.

·       The favorite has lost four consecutive games to the current opponent.

·       The game is a non-divisional matchup.

If our team has a 0.500 record or worse they have gone 18-9 averaging a +111 -1.5 run line for a 40% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $12,310 profit.

Padres vs Braves
7 :20 ET | Truist Park

8-Unit Bet on the Braves using the -1.5 run line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has gone15-12 averaging a -100-betting line for a solid 20% ROI and has made a $44,640 profit for the Dime Bettor. The requirements are:

·       Bet on home favorites.

·       The road dog is coming off a terrible shutout loss priced as a -200 or greater favorite.

Teams that were shutout in their previous game and were priced as a 170 and greater favorite and now on the road priced as a 140 or greater underdog are an imperfect 0-7 averaging a 175 underdog for as 51% ROI.

Brewers vs Astros

8:10 ET | Minute Maid Park

8-Unit bet on the Astros priced as -110 favorites using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has gone 101-62 averaging a -100-betting line for a solid 20% ROI and has made a $44,640 profit for the Dime Bettor. The requirements are:

·       Bet on home teams.

·       The home team is on a 10-game run committing not more than a single error in each of those games.

·       The opponent is averaging four or more home runs per game.

If the game is the first game of a series these home teams have gone 30-20 averaging a 104 bet resulting in a 23% Roi and making the Dime Bettor a $14,020 profit over the past five seasons.