Sports Handicapper John Ryan's Picks & Predictions

Guardians vs Phillies 
8-Unit Bet on the Phillies priced as 170-favorites using the money line. 

The Phillies have the best record in MLB despite going just 3-6 over their last nine games and only four games over 0.500 (24-20) since June 1. However, if there was a time where the schedule woudl wake up this sleeping giant it would be now. The Phillies face the AL Central-leading Guardians for three games and then face the New York Yankees for three more home games before embarking on a rigid road trip involving the Seattle Mariners and the LA Dodgers. 

The Phillies may make headline news with an acquisition ahead of the trade deadline next week, but they are truly a complete team from top to bottom. It appears they have a need for better hitting outfielders, but they should not overlook the defensive talent of those players. I look at strong defensive players that make run-saving plays the same as any other player that hits an RBI single. The goal is to outscore your opponent and the Phillies have the best starting pitchers in MLB at the forefront. Most of all the team chemistry is like no other I have ever seen spanning 30+ years of attending and watching games (I have attended more than 2200 MLB games in my life). 

So, with the rise in competition now upon them the Phillies will rise above that competitive level and get back to playing their best baseball. All great teams go through slumps and not one has ever been immune to struggles. However, keep in mind that the Phillies remain the only team in MLB to have suffered no more than a 3-game losing streak this season.  

Phillies skipper Rob Thomson is 24-8 for 75% earning a 38% ROI when facing a foe that has won 58% or more of their games and with that foe starting a pitcher that allowed a run in three or fewer innings in their previous start. Ben Lively starts for the Guardians and he is coming off a solid start completing 5 1/3 innings of work, allowing two earned runs on six hits including two walks and two strikeouts. The Guardians lost 2-1 to the Padres, who scored both runs in the second inning. Thomson is also 13-7 when facing a team that has won 58% or more of their games and facing a starter that allowed two or more runs and completed less than six innings of work in their last start. 

Over the past three seasons, the Phillies are 25-7 for 78% winning bets earning an 18% ROI when playing at home and it is the first game of the series.  

From my Predictive Model 

My predictive model is expecting that their starter Christopher Sanchez will complete six or more innings of work and that the offense will have at least one multiple-run inning. IN past home games in which the Phillies met or exceeded these projections has produced an incredible 51-3 record for 94% winning bets over the past three seasons. In road games in which the Guardians allowed these performance measures has seen them go just 13-48 for 21% winning bets over the past three seasons. 

Twins vs Tigers 
8-Unit Bet on the Tigers priced as +145-underdogs using the money line. 

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 54-35 record averaging a 115-underdog wager for a 28% ROI and a $35,790 profit spanning the past five seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on home teams that have batted 0.220 or worse over their previous seven games.  

They are starting a pitcher that allowed 5 or more runs in each of his last two starts.  

If our home team is a dog of 140 or greater they improve to a 10-13 record (44%) averaging a 177-wager for a 25% ROI and a $8,590 profit for the Dime Bettor on only 23 bets placed.  

xA’s vs. Angels  

8-Unit Best Bet on the Angels priced as 105-underdogs using the money line. 

This betting algorithm has gone 103-64 for 62% winners and has earned a 19% ROI and has made the Dime Bettor a $40,950 profit over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on home teams taking on a divisional foe. 

The game occurs after the all-star break. 

The foe has won 6 or more of their past 8 games. 

The foe has won 45% or fewer of their games in the current season. 

If the home team has a losing record they soar to a remarkable 14-2 (88%), averaging a –110 wager resulting in a 76% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $13,925 profit over the past five seasons.  

Premium Best Bets for July 26, 2024 

Rockies vs Giants 
8-Unit Bet on the Giants priced as –175-favorites using the money line. 

The Predictive Model Projections 

From my predictive model, we are looking for the Giants to post at least one multiple run inning and for Rockies starter, Kyle Freeland, to complete no more than five innings. In past home games when the Giants met these projections has seen them go 115-25 (82%) averaging a –123 wager resulting in a 49% ROI and a monster profit of $94,270 for the Dime Bettor spanning the past five seasons. When on the road, the Rockies are just 22-118 (16%) averaging a 175-underdog bet resulting in a –55% ROI and a loss of $8,725 for the Dime Bettor in games played over the past five seasons. 

The Supporting Betting Algorithm 

This betting algorithm has gone 103-64 for 62% winners and has earned a 19% ROI and has made the Dime Bettor a $40,950 profit over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on home teams.  

That home team has been on a solid fielding streak committing no more than a single error in any of their last 10 games.  

The opponent hit four or more home runs in their previous game.  

If our home team is coming off a loss, they improve to 82-46 averaging a –101 wager resulting in a 26% ROI and a $43,620 profit for the Dime Bettor.