Sports Handicapper John Ryan's Picks & Predictions

Green Bay vs San Francisco
6:40 PM EST, January 19, 2020
NFC Championship Game
NFL: 10-Star Bet on ‘OVER’ the posted total

Let us start with this power-query that has earned a 77-32-2 ‘OVER’ record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. Play over with road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and are outscoring opponents by 4 or more points-per-game and after allowing thtree points or less in the first half of their last game.

The Packers are 27-10 ‘OVER’ in road games when facing elite offensive teams averaging 6.5 yards-per-play in games played since 1991.

The Packers are 18-5 ‘OVER’ after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.

From the predictive side of things, the 49ers are projected to score 1t least 28 points and the Packers have posted a 101-13 ‘OVER’ record in games in which they allowed 28 or more points since 1991 including 10-0 ‘OVER’ in playoff games.

The 49ers are 125-29 ‘OVER’ when they have scored 28 or more points since 1991 including a perfect 5-0 ‘OVER’ in playoff games.

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs

3:05 PM ESTPM EST, January 19, 2020
NFL: 7-Star Best Bet on the Tennessee Titans

The Chiefs are in a classic Catch-22 situation. Should they choose to attempt to contain Henry they will expose themselves to the passing arm of Ryan Tannehill, who was atop the NFL with a 135 quarterback Passer Rating Index and net yards-power-pass-attempt. It has been a long time since a quarterback led the league in both categories since throwing down field will logically cause more incomplete passes and potential interceptions.

Tannehill has not had to win games with his arm so far in the playoffs, which gives little scouting intelligence for the Chiefs to prepare for in this game. The Chiefs know that play action pass will be part of the TItans offensive scheme since they led the NFL with a total of 1,568 passing yards using play action.

The Chiefs will be at their most vulnerable in second and shorter than five yards. If the Titans use play action and the Chiefs are playing run stop it will leave every receiver on the field in man coverage with no safety help. Tannehill has been incredibly accurate with throws of any length and he will exploit any man-coverage situation downfield.

If the Chiefs show blitz and back out and the Titans are running the ball behind Henry the result will be a first down. Henry is gaining chunk yards meaning big gains that are rarely seen from run plays and more common from pass receptions and yards after the catch.

Tannehill and the Titan receivers led the NFL in average yards gained using play action by a wide margin. They used play action 124 times, which ranked 15th most in the NFL, but gained the most passing yards.

This situational betting system has earned a solid 79-44-2 against-the-spread (ATS) record spanning the last 10 seasons. The system instructs us to be on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that has a defense that allows an average of between 335 and 370 yards-per-game on the season and is facing an elite team that is gaining an average of 370 yards-per-game on the season.

From the predictive side of things, there is high probability that the Titans gain 100 or more rushing yards and teams in past Championship games that have attained this measure are a stout 24-13 SU and 24-13 ATS since 2000 including road warriors sporting a 7-8 SU record and an eye-popping 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning NFL picks.

Tennessee vs Kansas City
AFC Championship Game
Arrowhead Stadium
2:30 PM EST, January 19, 2020
10-Star Best Bet ‘UNDER’ the Total

I will not provide the color and background of these teams as that would only be a regurgitation of the tons of content already on the web and on television. The predictive metrics are what is important in my content and let us get right to it.

Tennessee is 9-2 ’UNDER’ after allowing 14 or fewer points in their last game in games played over the last two seasons.
The Chiefs are 6-1 ‘UNDER’ in games following a 40+ point outburst and have won at least three consecutive games. Home favorites of 5.5 to 9 points on a three or more game win streak and are coming off a 40+ point game are 24-11 ‘UNDER’ since 1991 including a perfect 4-0 ‘UNDER’ in the playoffs.

For the first half the following power-query underscores the 7-Star play on the ‘UNDER” for the first half. The query has earned a 42-11 ‘UNDER’ record over the last five seasons for 79% winning bets. The requirements are to play ‘UNDER’ with any team using the first-half total that is a good offensive team averaging 23 to 27 points-per-game and are facing an average defensive team allowing 18 to 23 PPG and after a win by 14 or more points.

The key projection is that the Titans will rush for 150 to 200 yards. In playoff games in which the host allowed 150 to 200 rushing yards, the ‘UNDER’ is 16-7 for 70% winners including a 12-1 ‘UNDER’ (8-16 straight-up and 6-18 ATS in case you were wondering) record when the opponent gained between 180 and 200 yards.

Loyola-Illinois vs Illinois State
4:00 PM EST, Sunday, January 19, 2020
7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Illinois State Redbirds

This situational betting system has earned a solid 46-27-2 against-the-spread (ATS) record since 2010 and requires us to bet on an underdog that is coming off a 10 or more point loss to a conference rival and is now facing an opponent that is coming off two consecutive dominating games covering the spread as a double-digit favorite in each game.

Loyola is a money-burning 8-21 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a favorite spanning games played over the last two seasons.

Illinois State does not shoot well from the free throw line, but they do shoot well from beyond the arc ranking 58th in the nation consisting of 353 Division-1 programs with a 36% 3-point shooting percentage. From the predictive side of my tools note that Loyola is 2-10 ATS for 17% when their opponent has made between 38% and 45% of their 3-point shot attempts.

Davidson vs Fordham
12:00 PM EST, Sunday, January 19, 2020
7-Star Best Bet on the Fordham Rams

Let us start with a situational betting system that has earned a consistent 74-33-3 ATS the record over the last five seasons. The requirements are to play on struggling underdogs that are averaging 63 or fewer points-per-game on the season and are facing an opponent that is an average offensive team scoring between 67 and 75 points-per-game on the season and are coming off two or more consecutive ‘OVER’s games.

 Davidson is just 2-10 ATS when facing teams that average 14 or fewer turnovers this season and 2-9 ATS after a game in which they failed to cover the spread this season.