Sports Handicapper John Ryan's Picks & Predictions

Maple Leafs vs Senators 
7-unit bet OVER 5.5 goals. 

The following NHL betting algorithm has produced a 22-9-3 OVER record good for 71% winning bets. The requirements are: 

Bet on home teams in the second half of the season and the playoffs. 

They are coming off a win by three or more goals. 

The total is 5.5 or lower. 

Our team is priced between a –120- favorite and a 120 underdog. 

The opponent has been scorching hot having won 11 or more of their previous 15 games. 

Nuggets vs Clippers 
5-Unit bet on the UNDER currently priced at 212.5 points 

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 61-29 Under Playoff record for 68% winning bets since 2002. The requirements are: •Bet the Under in game 6 or 7 of an NBA Playoff series. •The home team has won between 50 and 80% of their games in the current season. •The total is at least 10 points lower than the NBA season total average, which is 227 points. If the total is more than 20 points lower than the NBA season total average, then the Under has gone 11-3 for 79% winning bets. If the home team is favored the Under is 9-2 for 82% winning bets. 

Nuggets vs Clippers 
7-Unit bet on the Clippers priced as a 6.5-point favorite. The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 60-16 SU and 51-24-1 ATS record good for 68% winning bets over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on favorites priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points.  

They are on a two or more-game ATS losing streak.  

They have won 50 to 60% of their games.  

The opponent has a winning record. 

If the game occurs in the playoffs, this system has produced a highly profitable 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS record good for 75% winning bets. 

Knicks vs Pistons 
7-unit bet on the Knicks priced as a 1.5-point underdog. 

Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 5-Units preflop at +1.5 and then look to add 2-more units at 5.5 points. Another option is to add the 2-units after a 10-0 scoring run by the Pistons. Both scenarios must be executed in the first half of action. 

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 24-8 SU and 23-8-1 ATS record good for 743% winning bets. The requirements are: 

The game is in the playoffs and is game 6 or game 7. 

Our team has won between 60 and 70% of their games. 

The total is 10 or more points lower than the average season total. 

Our team is priced between a 4.5-point favorite and dog. 

If the opponent has won three games and looking to close out the series has seen our teams go 13-3 Su and 12-3-1 ATS for 80% winning bets. In case you wanted to know, the Under in these games have gone 13-3 for 82% winning bets. No official bet on the UNDER. 

Game Context 

The Knicks, the No. 3 seed, have leaned on their veteran core and playoff experience, with Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns driving a fifth-ranked offense (111.7 PPG). Despite a 1-3 regular-season record against Detroit, New York has controlled much of the series, outscoring the Pistons by +7 points through five games. The Pistons, the No. 6 seed, have exceeded expectations after a 14-win 2023-24 season, boasting a top 10 offense and defense since February. Cade Cunningham’s All-Star play and Detroit’s 3-1 season-series win highlight their upset potential, but their inexperience has shown in clutch moments. 

Key Matchups Favoring the Knicks 

The Knicks’ path to victory hinges on exploiting these critical matchups, leveraging their experience, physicality, and offensive firepower. 

Jalen Brunson vs. Cade Cunningham 

Why It Favors the Knicks: Brunson, averaging 33.2 points and 8.8 assists on 47.8% shooting in the series, is a playoff-tested closer with an 8.6-minute time of possession and 42.4% clutch usage rate. His ability to break down defenses with pull-up jumpers and playmaking (27.0 shots per game) overwhelms Detroit’s perimeter defense, which ranks 28th in 3-point defense (38.1% allowed). Cunningham, averaging 25.8 points and 9.0 assists, is a dynamic playmaker but struggles defensively against Brunson’s quickness, shooting 51% in fourth quarters. Brunson’s 32+ points in three straight games and 30+ points with 7+ assists in all four games show his dominance. Cunningham’s 33.5 PPG in wins vs. 22.3 in losses ties Detroit’s fate to his output, but New York’s OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges can disrupt him, as seen in Game 5 when he was held to 22 points. 

Impact: Brunson’s scoring and clutch play give the Knicks control of the game’s tempo, a critical edge against Detroit’s faster pace (No. 7 in possessions per game). If Brunson exploits mismatches, as he did in Game 4 (32 points, 11 assists), New York can dictate a half-court game, where they’re 6-16 against top-10 point-differential teams like Detroit. 

Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Jalen Duren 

Why It Favors the Knicks: Towns, averaging 22.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks while shooting 50% from three, is a matchup nightmare for Duren. His floor-spacing (2.0 made 3s per game, 44.5% from deep) pulls Duren away from the paint, where Detroit relies on his rim protection (1.2 blocks per game). Towns’ 31-point, four-3-pointer Game 3 and 5-of-7 three-point Game 4 performances exposed Detroit’s 34% 3-point defense in the series. Duren’s double-doubles (12 points, 13 rebounds in Game 2) are impactful, but his 6’10” frame struggles to contest Towns’ perimeter game. Towns’ 12.8 RPG (second in the NBA) also counters Detroit’s paint-scoring strength (No. 3 in points in the paint). 

Impact: Towns’ versatility forces Detroit to adjust, opening driving lanes for Brunson and cutters like Josh Hart. If Towns hits 3+ threes, as he has in four of seven matchups with Detroit, the Knicks can stretch the floor and exploit Detroit’s sixth-worst 3-point defense, creating high-percentage looks. 

OG Anunoby/Mikal Bridges vs. Tobias Harris/Malik Beasley 

Why It Favors the Knicks: Anunoby and Bridges, elite two-way wings, neutralize Detroit’s perimeter scoring. Anunoby, averaging 18+ points in six of nine recent games, exploits Detroit’s switching defense, which leaves him open (42% from three in the series). Bridges’ length disrupts Harris (20.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 58.3% FG), holding him to 15 points in Game 4. Beasley, Detroit’s X-factor with 300+ threes this season, has slumped (9/30 from three since Game 1), partly due to Bridges’ defense. Detroit’s 41% 3-point shooting in Game 3 was an outlier, as the Knicks’ eighth-ranked 3-point defense (36.9% allowed) typically contains shooters. 

Impact: Anunoby and Bridges’ defensive versatility limits Detroit’s spacing, forcing Cunningham into tougher shots. Offensively, Anunoby’s scoring and Bridges’ cutting (10 points, 4 steals in Game 3) provide secondary options, reducing reliance on Brunson and Towns. This matchup tilts the Knicks’ way in a low-scoring game (212.5 total). 

Knicks’ Starting Five vs. Pistons’ Depth 

Why It Favors the Knicks: New York’s starting five—Brunson, Towns, Anunoby, Bridges, and Hart—has played more total and fourth-quarter minutes than any NBA lineup, excelling in clutch situations (3-13 as moneyline underdogs of +102 or longer). Their 36.9% 3-point shooting and 26.0% offensive rebounding rank eighth and 12th, respectively, providing balance. Detroit’s depth, with Tim Hardaway Jr. (24 points, 7 3s in Game 3) and Ausar Thompson, is potent, but their bench scored only 22 points in Game 4 vs. New York’s 5, showing inconsistency. Isaiah Stewart’s questionable knee status weakens Detroit’s physicality (1.4 BPG). 

Impact: The Knicks’ cohesive starting unit, with low turnover rates (No. 4 in the NBA), thrives in tight playoff games. Their ability to push the pace in transition (No. 2 in fastbreak points) after defensive stops can exploit Detroit’s youth, especially if the Pistons’ bench, led by Beasley (3/18 from three since Game 1), falters. 

Scenarios for a Knicks Win 

Brunson Outduels Cunningham: If Brunson scores 30+ points and dishes 7+ assists, as he has in all four games, he controls the game’s flow, limiting Cunningham’s impact (under 25 points in losses). New York’s 79.0% series win probability hinges on this. 

Towns Exploits the Perimeter: Towns hitting 3+ threes forces Duren to guard away from the rim, opening the paint for Hart (6.6 APG in 40+ minute games) and Anunoby. This was key in Game 3’s 118-116 win. 

Defensive Pressure on Shooters: Containing Beasley and Hardaway (combined 12/38 from three since Game 1) with Bridges and Anunoby keeps Detroit’s offense one-dimensional, as seen in Game 5’s 94-point output. 

Transition Offense: The Knicks’ No. 2-ranked transition game (111.7 PPG) thrives if they force turnovers (Detroit: 14.2 per game). A +5 turnover margin, as in Game 1, leads to a 106+ point output. 

Player Prop Bets with Value 

Based on series trends and matchup analysis, these prop bets offer strong opportunities (odds via DraftKings/BetMGM, subject to change): These are not more than 1.0-unit bets and prefer 0.75 units per prop bet. 

Jalen Brunson Over 30.5 Points (-105, DraftKings) 

Why: Brunson’s playoff volume (+8.5 FGA vs. regular season) and 33.2 PPG in the series make this a safe bet. He’s cleared 30.5 in three straight games, facing a Pistons defense allowing 118 PPG since Game 2. Detroit’s 28th-ranked perimeter defense struggles with his 51% fourth-quarter shooting. 

Risk: Cunningham or Thompson could pressure Brunson into turnovers, but his 8.6-minute possession time and 42.4% clutch usage minimize this. 

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 Made 3-Pointers (+110, FanDuel) 

Why: Towns is shooting 44.5% from three, averaging 2.0 made 3s on 4.7 attempts. He’s hit 3+ threes in four of seven matchups with Detroit, including 4/8 in Game 3 and 5/7 in Game 4. Detroit’s 34% 3-point defense in the series and sixth-highest opponent 3-point make rate favor Towns, especially in 40+ minute games (2.7 3s per game). 

Risk: Duren could contest more aggressively, but Towns’ 50% 3-point shooting in the series suggests he’ll capitalize on open looks. 

Josh Hart Over 5.5 Assists (+100, DraftKings) 

Why: Hart averages 6.6 assists in 26 games with 40+ minutes, as he’s done in three series games. His role as a connector in transition and off Towns’ spacing creates assists, especially with Brunson drawing defenders. Detroit’s seventh-ranked PPG allowed (109.3) doesn’t deter Hart’s playmaking (5.5 APG in wins). 

Risk: A low-possession game could limit opportunities, but the Knicks’ No. 2 transition ranking ensures Hart’s involvement. 

Cade Cunningham Under 42.5 PRA (Points + Rebounds + Assists) (-110, FanDuel) 

Why: Cunningham averages 25.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 9.0 assists but falls to 22.3 points in losses. Anunoby’s defense and New York’s low-turnover rate (No. 4) limit his playmaking. He’s cleared 42.5 PRA in only two of four series games, and the Knicks’ eighth-ranked 3-point defense contains his 30.8 PPG vs. New York. 

Risk: A high-scoring game (212.5 total) could boost his PRA, but New York’s tempo control (bottom-10 pace) caps his ceiling. 

Brewers vs CWS 
7-Unit bet on the CWS priced as a 150-underdog. 

So, ugly dogs like the Rockies and the CWS do come through with big wins occasionally. As we witnessed last night with the Rockies winning 2-1 over the scorching hot Atlanta Braves. Today is the White Sox showing up on my models and systems.  

Teams that have yet to win their 10th game and are playing at home in May priced between a 120 and 180 underdog have gone 41-46 for 47% winning bets that have averaged a 152 bet and earning a 15.1% ROI and a $20,600 profit for the Dime bettor and a $1,030 profit for the casual fan who is betting $50 per game. 

Burke relies on a four-pitch mix: a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. Below are the details of each pitch, including average speeds and key characteristics, based on 2024 data from Baseball Savant and other sources. 

Four-Seam Fastball 

Average Speed: 95.3 MPH 

Top Speed: 99.4 MPH 

Spin Rate: 2,546 RPM 

Usage: Primary pitch, thrown in the strike zone 50% of the time. 

Characteristics: Burke’s fastball is his best offering, featuring significant “ride” up in the zone due to its high induced vertical break (17 inches) and seven feet of extension. It generates whiffs and misses bats consistently, with the ability to touch 98-99 MPH when needed. The pitch’s movement profile (6 inches horizontal toward a right-handed batter, 12 inches drop) is slightly below league average but effective due to velocity and release point. 

Slider 

Average Speed: 86.9 MPH 

Top Speed: 89.9 MPH 

Spin Rate: 2,395 RPM 

Usage: Thrown in the strike zone 52% of the time. 

Characteristics: Burke’s slider is a hard, late-breaking pitch with 4 inches of horizontal movement away from right-handed batters and 30 inches of drop. It’s a swing-and-miss pitch, generating a 7/30 whiff rate in a 2024 start against the Athletics. The slider’s effectiveness complements the fastball, particularly against right-handed hitters. 

Curveball 

Average Speed: 79.7 MPH 

Top Speed: 82.9 MPH 

Spin Rate: 2,504 RPM 

Usage: Thrown in the strike zone 47% of the time. 

Characteristics: Burke’s knuckle curve has excellent depth, with 5 inches of horizontal movement away from right-handed batters and 58 inches of drop, making it a plus pitch when located well. Its slower speed and sharp break create a significant velocity differential from the fastball, disrupting hitters’ timing. The curveball’s near-60% strike rate in 2024 highlights its reliability. 

Changeup 

Average Speed: 84.6 MPH 

Top Speed: 86.6 MPH 

Usage: Least-used pitch, with some arm-side fade but limited reliability. 

Characteristics: The changeup is Burke’s weakest offering, featuring 16 inches of horizontal movement toward right-handed batters and 29 inches of drop. He lacks confidence in the pitch, throwing it sparingly, and it remains a work in progress. Improving its consistency could elevate his effectiveness against left-handed hitters. 

Recent Performance and Stats 

Burke’s 2024 MLB stint was brief but impressive, showcasing his potential as a starter. In four appearances (three starts) for the White Sox, he posted a 2-0 record with a 1.42 ERA and 22 strikeouts over 19 innings, yielding a 1.00 WHIP and a 22:7 K:BB ratio. His standout performances included: 

September 22, 2024, vs. Oakland Athletics: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 hits, 8 K, 0 BB. Burke dominated with his fastball-slider combination, allowing just three baserunners. 

March 27, 2025 (Opening Day) vs. Los Angeles Angels: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 hits, 3 K, 0 BB, 73 pitches (49 strikes). This efficient outing demonstrated improved command and set a positive tone for the 2025 season. 

April 25, 2025, vs. Unknown Opponent: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 hits, 5 K, 2 BB. Despite allowing runs, Burke generated 10 whiffs and a 29% CSW (called strikes plus whiffs), showing his stuff remained effective. 

In the minors, Burke’s 2024 season with Triple-A Charlotte saw him go 2-6 with a 4.62 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 64.1 innings across 16 starts. His career minor-league walk rate (around 4.0 BB/9) and occasional command issues highlight areas for improvement, but his bat-missing ability (13.0 K/9 in college, 10+ K/9 in minors) underscores his upside. 

Facts Supporting a Solid Start 

Several factors suggest Burke is capable of deliveringa strong performance: 

Elite Fastball: Burke’s four-seam fastball, averaging 95.3 MPH and touching 99.4 MPH, is a plus pitch with exceptional ride and extension. Its 17 inches of induced vertical break makes it difficult to square up, leading to weak contact (90.3 MPH average exit velocity, 8.5% barrel rate in 2024). 

Breaking Ball Effectiveness: Both the slider and curveball generate whiffs and strikes, with the slider’s late break and the curveball’s depth creating a diverse attack. These pitches are particularly effective against right-handed hitters, who struggle to adjust to the velocity and movement differentials. 

Athletic Delivery: Despite his 6-foot-6 frame, Burke’s delivery is smooth and repeatable, reducing the likelihood of mechanical breakdowns. His athleticism allows him to maintain velocity deep into games, as seen in his six-inning outings. 

Recent Success: Burke’s 1.42 ERA and 2-0 record in 2024 MLB appearances, coupled with his Opening Day gem in 2025, indicate he can handle major-league hitters when his command is on. His ability to limit walks (0 BB in two of his best starts) is a positive sign. 

Motivation as Opening Day Starter: Being named the White Sox’s Opening Day starter in 2025 reflects the organization’s confidence in Burke. This role could boost his focus and preparation, leading to a dialed-in performance. 

Scenarios for a White Sox Win 

The White Sox’s 2024 season was historically poor, with only 41 wins, making victories rare. However, specific scenarios could align for Burke to lead the team to a win: 

Favorable Matchup Against a Weak Offense 

Scenario: Burke faces a team like the 2024 Washington Nationals or Miami Marlins, who ranked in the bottom five in MLB for runs scored (4.10 and 3.94 runs per game, respectively). These teams struggle against high-velocity fastballs and breaking pitches, playing into Burke’s strengths. 

Why It Works: Burke’s fastball and slider can exploit teams with high strikeout rates (e.g., Nationals: 22.3% K rate). If he limits walks and keeps the ball in the park, he can pitch 6+ innings of 2-or-fewer runs, giving the White Sox a chance to capitalize on minimal offensive output. His 2024 start against the Athletics (1 ER, 8 K) shows he can dominate weaker lineups. 

Efficient Pitching and Defensive Support 

Scenario: Burke throws 70-75% strikes, as he did on Opening Day 2025 (49/73 pitches for strikes), and the White Sox defense, led by players like shortstop Brooks Baldwin, minimizes errors. The team’s 2024 fielding percentage (.981) was below average, but improved infield play could keep runs off the board. 

Why It Works: Efficiency allows Burke to go deep into games, preserving a shaky bullpen (4.82 ERA in 2024). If he induces weak contact (40.4% hard-hit rate in 2024) and gets groundballs with his curveball, the defense can turn double plays, limiting baserunners. A 2-1 or 3-2 win is feasible if the offense scratches across a few runs. 

Offensive Outburst from Key Players 

Scenario: White Sox hitters like Luis Robert Jr. or Andrew Vaughn provide a rare power surge, hitting a home run or driving in 3+ runs. The team’s 2024 offense was anemic (3.12 runs per game), but Robert’s 30-HR potential and Vaughn’s clutch hitting could spark a breakout. 

Why It Works: Burke only needs 3-4 runs to win if he pitches to his 1.42 ERA form. A game where the White Sox score 4+ runs (which happened in 25% of their 2024 games) paired with Burke allowing 2 or fewer runs (as in three of his four 2024 appearances) sets up a winnable low-scoring affair. 

Facing a Struggling Opposing Starter 

Scenario: Burke matches up against a pitcher with poor recent form, such as a rookie with a 5.00+ ERA or a veteran coming off an injury. For example, a pitcher like the 2024 Patrick Corbin (5.92 ERA) would give the White Sox a chance to score early. 

Why It Works: The White Sox offense, while weak, can capitalize on hittable pitches. If Burke outduels the opposing starter by throwing 6 innings of 1-2 runs, the White Sox could build a lead early and hold it with a short bullpen effort from relievers like Prelander Berroa. 

Home Game at Guaranteed Rate Field 

Scenario: Burke pitches at home, where the White Sox had a slightly better 2024 record (23-58) than on the road (18-63). Guaranteed Rate Field’s pitcher-friendly dimensions (97 park factor for batting, 100 for pitching) favor pitchers who limit home runs. 

Why It Works: Burke’s ability to miss bats (22 K in 19 MLB innings) and induce weak contact reduces the risk of home runs, a key factor at home. Fan support and familiarity with the mound could boost his confidence, as seen in his Opening Day shutout. A home game against a mid-tier AL Central opponent like the Royals or Twins could tilt the odds in Chicago’s favor