Sports Handicapper John Ryan's Picks & Predictions

Clippers vs Wolves 
3 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Clippers priced as an 8.5-point underdog. 

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced impressive results going 55-48 SU and 72-30-1 ATS (71%) winning bets since 2016. From 2016 to the current game scoring has been on a historic rise lead wide and is the reason this season is selected as the starting point for the algorithm. The requirements are: ØBet on road teams. ØThat road team lost to the host in their previous meeting by 3 or fewer points. ØThe host is coming off an upset loss.  

If our road team is priced as a dog of not more than 6.5 points they have soared to a highly profitable 19-12 SU and 25-6 ATS (81%) winning bets record since 2016. 

Michigan vs Ohio State 
1:00 EST 
7-Unit bet on the Buckeyes priced as a 9.5-point underdog. 

The following NCAA Basketball betting algorithm has compiled an exceptional long-term record of 430-278 ATS record good for 61% winning bets dating back to 1998. The requirements are: 

Bet on home teams. 

Both teams average 76 or more PPG. 

The road team is coming off a game in which 175 or more points were scored. 

New England vs Seattle Seahawks 
Super Bowl LX 
10-UNIT bet on the Patriots priced as a 5-point underdog. 

Algorithm #1: This betting algorithm has compiled an impressive and highly profitable 30-53 SU and 55-28-1 ATS record for 66.3% winning bets since 1983: The required criteria are: 

Bet on underdogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points. 

They are a team that has outscored their opponents by 5 or more PPG in the first half. 

Our dog is coming off a win by 6 or fewer points. 

If the game occurs in the playoffs, our dog has gone 3-5 SU and 7-1 ATS for 88% winning bets. 

Algorithm #2: This betting algorithm has compiled an impressive and highly profitable 14-11 SU and 17-7-1 ATS record for 71% winning bets since 1983: The required criteria are: 

Bet on any team using the money line that  

Won their last game by a margin of three or fewer points. 

The game occurs from week 6 through the Super Bowl. 

Our team is the underdog. 

Both teams have won 75% or more of their games. 

Algorithm #3: This betting algorithm has compiled an impressive and highly profitable 14-8 SU and 19-3 ATS record for 86.4% winning bets since 2010: The required criteria are: 

Bet on dogs of 3.5 and more points.  

It is a non-conference matchup  

The dog has won 18 or fewer games over the past three seasons prior to the current season. 

If our dog is priced between 3.5 and 6 points has seen them go a ferocious 9-3 SU and 12-0 ATS for 100% winning bets since 2010. 

The Patriots are priced as a 4.5-point dog. It is a non-conference matchup since it is the Super Bowl. The Patriots have won 8 games in the 2022 season, 4 games in the 2023 season, and 4 in the 2024 season for a total of 16 wins over those three seasons.   

Teams that won 16 or fewer games in the three seasons prior to the current one has compiled a 6-1 ATS record when priced as a dog of 3.5 or more points has compiled a 10-7 SU and 15-2 ATS record for 88% winning bets since 2010. 

Super Bowl underdogs that have allowed an average of 23 or fewer PPG, have won 11 or more games, and have a positive turnover margin of at least 6 have gone 9-6 SU and 11-4 ATS for 73.3% winning bets since 2003. 

From the Predictive Models: My predictive models show a high probability that the Patriots defense will allow 21 or fewer points to the Seahawks. The Patriots defense posted a 17.7 yards-per-point ratio, or the opponents had to gain 17.7 yards to put up 1 point on the scoreboard. 

In the Super Bowl games, dogs that have a strong defense that has posted a yards-per-point allowed metric of 17 or more have gone an impressive 14-8 SU and 17-5 ATS good for 77% winning bets since 2002. Also, dogs in the Super Bowl that outscored their opponents in the second half of their games have gone 13-10 SU and 17-6 ATS for 74% winning bets.  

In the Super Bowls since 2001 season, dogs that allowed 21 or fewer points have compiled an 8-2 SUATS record.  

Even when the Patriots allowed 24 or fewer points and had the same or fewer turnovers, has produced an impressive 15-3 SU (83%) and 13-4-1 ATS record for 77% winning bets since Drake Maye was drafted.  

Of note is that this Super Bowl marks only the third time that the two teams competing were not in the playoffs in the previous season. The dog has gone 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS and is a very small sample size. It has not happened since the 2004 season when the Patriots defeated the Panthers 32-29 but covered as a 7-point dog. Prior to that game, it was the 14-point underdog Patriots and the unknown Tom Brady defeated the “greatest show on turf” Rams 20-17. Interesting how the Patriots are involved in all three games. 

The Patriots are projected to play a ‘cleaner’ game than the Seahawks and have both fewer penalties called on them and fewer penalty yards marked off against them. Once again, dogs in the Super Bowl that have met both performance measures have gone 7-2 SUATS since the 2002 season. 

Live Betting Strategies: Over the past 24 Super Bowls, the team that has scored first has not had any advantages in winning the game. In fact, the teams that have scored first have gone 13-11 SU and 11-13 ATS for 46% winning bets. Worse yet, if the team that scored first was the favorite as seen them collapse in a big way, going just 5-6 SU and 2-9 ATS for 18% winning bets. 

Consider betting 8 units preflop on the Patriots priced as a 4.5-point underdog. If the Seahawks score first in any fashion (offensive TD, FG, defensive pick-6, or a defensive safety) bet 4-units on the Patriots using the spread. If the favorite scores the first points of the SB by way of safety or a converted FG attempt has seen them go just 6-11 SU and 5-12 ATS for 29% winning bets.  

Intuitively, logic would dictate that a favorite scoring the first seven or more points in a SB would go to win the game. However, not so fast, as these favorites collapse to the depressing tune of a 4-3 SU and 1-6 ATS record. 

In the 2023 season, the 49ers took a 10-0 lead after Jake Moody made a 55-yard FG and Christian McCaffrey scored on a 21 yards pass from Jauan Jennings with Moddy converting the extra point. The 49ers led 10-3 at the half.  

The Chiefs came back with 13 unanswered points on the merits of 2 converted field goals by Harrison Butker and a 16-yard pass Mahomes TD pass to Marquez Valdes-Scantling. After the 49ers had to settle for an FG in overtime, Mahomes threw a 3-yards TD pass to Mecole Hardman with three seconds left in OT. 

Last year broke a string of three consecutive SBs in which the favored scored the first 7 or more points of the game and ended up losing. Last year, the Eagles scored the first 34 points of SB LIX and defeated the Chiefs 40-22. On February 12, 2023 of the 2002 season, the 1.5-point favorite Eagles scored the first 7 points against the Chiefs but lost 38-35. On February 13, 2022 of the 2021 season, the Rams got out to a 7-0 lead but saw the Bengals Joe Burrow throw a 75 yard TD pass to Tee Higgins on the first play of the third quarter to take a 17-13 lead. The Bengals lead increased 7 points (2-13) with just 5:58 left in the game. However, Matthew Stafford had other ideas and threw the winning 1-yard TD pass to Cooper Kupp to win thew game 23-20. 

Lead Changes in the Super Bowls: Last year’s SB marked the first time in the last 24 games in which there was not one lead change after the first score. In the 2022 SB, the Chiefs and Eagles and in the 2021 SB, the 49ers vs Chiefs, posted 8 lead changes after the first score marking the most in the previous 24 games.  The average number of lead changes over the last 24 SB games has been 3.58 which is 7.8% more than the average regular season game has had.  

Player Prop Bet Considerations 

Consider betting no more than 2 units on these player props. 

1. Drake Maye OVER 30.5 Pass Attempts 

Why it's excellent for a Patriots upset: If New England wins as underdogs, it likely means Maye had to throw frequently to keep pace with Seattle's offense. The Seahawks have the #3 run defense and allow the 5th-most pass attempts per game (600 in regular season). In a competitive upset scenario, Maye would need 35+ attempts, making this a strong over bet. 

2. Hunter Henry OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards 

Why it's a great upset angle: Seattle's defense is vulnerable to tight ends (5th-most receptions and 6th-most yards allowed to TEs). If the Patriots pull off the upset, Henry would likely be a key weapon, especially with Stefon Diggs potentially neutralized by Devon Witherspoon. Henry exceeded this number 10 times in the regular season, including 5 of his last 7 games. 

3. Drake Maye OVER 40 Rushing Yards 

Why it's perfect for an underdog win: This prop has drawn heavy betting action after Maye's 65-yard rushing performance in the AFC Championship. If the Patriots upset Seattle, it would likely involve Maye using his mobility to extend plays and convert crucial third downs. Seattle's defense allows QB scrambles when their coverage holds up, creating opportunities for rushing yards.