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Why Bet on Hockey? Because the Underdog Said So!!! (02-17-2009) |
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Wednesday, 18 February 2009 |
The purpose of this article is to provide advice on how the average sports bettor can achieve a higher return on investment (ROI) by betting on hockey. Most North American sports bettors bet on football, baseball and basketball, as these are the most popular sports in the U.S. Hockey is the least popular main league sport but may be one of the more profitable sports to bet if one utilizes successful betting strategies.
Hockey is by far one of the trickiest sports to bet on. Unlike most sports, the action related to betting on a spread is a lot less common. Thus, most bets are moneyline. This creates a huge imbalance for several matchups where the oddsmakers may lay lines as high as -400 for the favored team. That being said, would you feel comfortable betting $400 to win $100 in a sport where the momentum and or outcome of the game can be altered within the blink of an eye?
This NHL season favourites are winning 3 times out of 5. This is a decent winning percentage overall. However, given the fact that many teams are heavily favoured in certain matchups, one will risk losing a substantial amount of money by betting the favourite. Therefore I recommend passing on betting moneyline on the favourite for any hockey games where the line is above -120. It just isn’t worth the risk.
The real value in hockey is in betting the underdogs. Assuming that you are able to win at least 50% of your underdog plays, this strategy is guaranteed to net you a positive ROI over the long run. With proper handicapping, one can truly capitalize on playing underdogs. I don’t know how many times that I have noticed matchups where the wrong team was favored. When this happens, the underdog usually pays 110 to 130 units. If you do your homework, you will be able to spot these mismatches and build your bankroll. Sometimes, there is an enormous amount of value in playing a heavy underdog in hockey. Often these types of bets can pay up to 250 units. If you believe that the heavy underdog has a serious chance of pulling off the upset then you should take the risk.
The key to profitable NHL underdog betting is fairly simple. Bet higher amounts on the most probable underdogs and lower amounts on the less probable ones. By scaling your bets, the monetary returns on these types of plays will more or less come to the same thing. In other words, you should bet a lot more on a 120 unit underdog that you believe has a very strong chance to come away with the victory than a 250 unit underdog that is clearly a long shot. In this scenario, a $100 bettor should bet $400 to $500 on the 120 unit underdog and no more then $200 on the 250 unit long shot. The dollar returns on each play are quite similar but the risk is properly leveraged.
The concept value betting is based on the ability to not necessarily maximize winning percentage, but to focus more on maximizing ROI. Scaled betting is absolutely critical for maximizing ROI when betting on hockey. My advice is to add these kinds of hockey bets to your sports betting portfolio. You do not need to know anything about hockey in order to be able to benefit from these types of investments since there are many sports betting professionals such as myself who can do this work for you. At the very least, you should consider purchasing an NHL subscription and see if it works for you.
I will share with you my recent successes with NHL underdog betting. I have played 8 NHL underdogs from Friday, February 13 to Monday, February 16. I was very successful down that stretch as I ended up winning 6 of those games. If these outcomes were football or basketball games I would have netted approximately 370 to 400 units. Instead my NHL underdogs netted 584 units. The monetary value of my success is even more magnified when adding the component of scaled betting. During my 6-2 NHL underdog stretch, $1000/unit bettors made a profit of $20,320. This is approximately $7000 more than what $1000/unit bettors would make with a 6-2 ATS run for basketball or football.
Alex has a very special treat for sports bettors. He is releasing a special NHL “End of Season Moneymaker” package at a special discounted price of only $250. This package will give you all of his NHL plays for the rest of the season including playoffs! This package is beneficial for all sports bettors. Regardless of being an NHL fan or not, it is designed to build your bankroll.
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