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Using the AFP as a Contrary Indicator
Posted by Joe Gavazzi | Monday, 29 September 2014

Everyone agrees that finding value is the key to a long-term winning percentage as a sports handicapper.  It is easy for the public to follow early season momentum in college football.  It is easy because it is obvious.  Obvious tends to be a long-term loser in football handicapping.  If you are serious about seeking value, you will consider using the AFP as a profitable contrary indicator. AFP is an abbreviation for “away from the pointspread.”  It is the number that a team wins or loses vs. the pointspread in any given game.  For example, if a 7 point favorite wins the game by 17 points, they have a +10 AFP in that contest.  The AFP can be used for individual games as a cumulative measure for any period of time, or season to date; or, as a home/road indicator using only those games.  It is an easy to use way to determine a true measure of how successful a team has been vs. the pointspread in a given period of time.  It is also one of the ways the linemaker uses to...

NFL Cold Starts and September Surprises
Posted by Jim Feist | Monday, 29 September 2014

So…are we all set for the Cardinals/Texans Super Bowl? Would be quite a surprise, wouldn’t it, with both combing to go 12-20 last season. They’ve been part of a group of surprise teams so far in the NFL. Atlanta bounced back from an awful campaign by slaying their longtime division rivals (and tormenter) in the opener, a 37-34 comeback over the Saints that may give them some early confidence, though that did't carry over to Week 2. Miami did the same to the Patriots, a hat tossing 33-20 comeback win, stomping all over Bill Belichick’s “new and improved” defense. But, as Red Auerbach used to say about hoops, “It ain’t the 5 that start, it’s the 5 who finish.” Just think back one year ago at this time. The surprising Chiefs started 3-0, similar to 2011 ago when the Arizona Cardinals began 3-0, a pair of teams who weren't on anybody's radar to make deep playoff runs. Yet, there they were at the end of September among the NFL elite in the standings. I bring this up...