Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Fresno State -3.5
The San Jose State Spartans look like they have quit on the season. They are now 3-8 after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games. It's three straight results that lead me to believe they quit on head coach Ken Niumatalolo.
It started with a 26-16 home loss to Air Force as 6.5-point favorites. The most shocking result came the next week with a 55-10 road loss to Nevada as a 9.5-point favorite, failing to cover the spread by 54.5 points. And last week it was a 25-3 road loss to San Diego State as 11-point dogs.
To add insult to injury the Spartans lost star QB Walker Eget to an injury in that loss to SDSU. Eget has thrown for 3,058 yards and 17 TD and is a huge loss for them. Freshman backup QB Tama Amisone is averaging just 4.7 yards per attempt on his 41 attempts this season and has yet to throw a TD pass.
San Jose State is a tired team right now playing for a 5th consecutive week. Fresno State will be playing for just a 3rd straight week and has been at home the last two weeks. The Bulldogs will have plenty left in the tank here and will be wanting to finish strong after a home loss to a solid Utah State team last week.
The Bulldogs put forth their two most impressive efforts of the season prior to that loss to the Aggies. They beat Wyoming 24-3 as 3-point home favorites, and they upset Boise State 30-7 as 17-point road dogs. They have starting QB EJ Warner back healthy for the finish now after he sat out three games due to injury.
No question the Bulldogs have the much superior defense in this matchup. They rank 37th in scoring defense at 20.6 points per game, 22nd in total defense at 299.5 yards per game and 19th at 4.8 yards per play. San Jose State ranks 121st in scoring defense at 31.7 points per game, 108th at 403.4 yards per game and 108th at 6.0 yards per play. Bet Fresno State Saturday.
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