Jack's Free Pick Friday: Arizona State +2
The Arizona State Sun Devils have been impressive getting to 8-3 this season despite battling through key injuries, most notably to QB Sam Leavitt and WR Jordan Tyson. They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS since losing Leavitt to a season-ending injury and have been impressive in all three games offensively.
They went on the road and beat Iowa State 24-19 as 7.5-point dogs while racking up 467 total yards and outgaining the Cyclones by 131 yards. They came back from their bye week and were a little rusty in a 25-23 home win over a feisty West Virginia team. But they were hitting on all cylinders again last week in a 42-17 road win at Colorado, racking up 580 total yards while outgaining the Buffaloes by 280 yards in a dominant effort.
Tyson (59 receptions, 689 yards, 8 TD) made his return last week from a 3-game absence and had 2 receptions for 61 yards against Colorado. The Sun Devils are running wild right now with backup QB Jeff Simms. They have rushed for an average of 256 yards per game in their last three games. Simms has rushed for 409 yards and two scores while averaging 4.9 per carry. Raleek Brown has rushed for 1,078 yards on 6.2 per carry.
The one constant for this Arizona State team has been a dominant defense. The Sun Devils are only allowing 23.0 points per game and 5.1 yards per play, holding opponents to 8.4 points per game and 0.8 yards per play below their season averages. They have done it against a much tougher schedule having to face the two best teams in the Big 12 in Utah and Texas Tech.
The Sun Devils are the only team to beat Texas Tech winning 26-22 at home where they are 5-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming to Houston in the game where Leavitt got injured, and their first game without Tyson. There was nothing fluky about that win over the Red Raiders as they outgained them 394 to 276, or by 118 total yards. It was their most impressive defensive effort of the season.
Arizona has benefited from a much softer schedule to get to 8-3 this season. The Wildcats have avoided the two best teams in the Big 12 in Utah and Texas Tech. They lost to the best Big 12 team they faced in BYU at home. They have benefited from a home-heavy schedule with seven home games compared to just four road games. They are 2-2 on the road losing at Iowa State by 23 and at Houston. They are getting too much respect from their current 4-game winning streak coming into this game.
Teams have been able to run on this Arizona defense as BYU had 258 rushing yards, Houston had 232, Cincinnati had 190, Kansas had 170 and Baylor had 181. The Wildcats have allowed an average of 193.3 rushing yards per game in their last six games. The Sun Devils should run wild on them here, and that favorable matchup will be the biggest difference in the game.
Another matchup that favors the Sun Devils is they have one of the best pass defenses in the country, and Arizona is a pass-happy offense with QB Noah Fifita. Arizona State has allowed 201 or fewer passing yards in five of its last six games. ASU beat Arizona 49-7 last year while holding Fifita to 14-of-29 passing for 126 yards. Wrong team favored here. Bet Arizona State Friday.
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