Free Sports Picks from Top Betting Handicappers - Best Bets of the Day

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Magic/Spurs UNDER 224

The San Antonio Spurs are 14-1 UNDER in their last 15 games overall and 20-3 UNDER in their last 23 games.  They have gone for 217 or fewer combined points in 10 of their last 14 games, and this total of 224 is too high for a game involving the Spurs right now.

The Orlando Magic are 3-2 UNDER in their last five games with 224 or fewer combined points in three of those five games.  The Magic remain without their best scorer in Franz Wagner (22.2 PPG) and clearly miss him on the offensive end.

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace.  The Spurs rank 3rd in defensive rating while the Magic are 15th.  The Magic and Spurs have gone for 226 or fewer combined points in four of their last five meetings, and they have gone for 221 or fewer in three of those.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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Free Pick on Ducks +103

(#65) Vegas Golden Knights | ML | . 

Vegas comes into this game as an underdog. I'm a bit surprised, even on the road. The Golden Knights are off four consecutive defeats which makes me like them even more. They are too good of a team to be losing this many games and have revenge on their minds off B2B OT losses against the Ducks earlier this year. 

Anaheim has also lost consecutive games including a very bad performance against the Canucks last time out. I believe that the Ducks are going to continue to struggle as long as Leo Carlsson remains out of the lineup as he's done so much for them this year. I'll take my chances with VGK as a road dog. 

Burns' Prediction: 4-1 Vegas.

Luck Factor quantifies how much a team’s results have been inflated or deflated by randomness rather than repeatable skill. It isolates outcomes driven by volatile, unpredictable events—turnovers, tipped passes, fumble recoveries, missed kicks, late-game variance—by comparing expected results (derived from play-by-play efficiency and situation-neutral metrics) to actual wins and losses. The goal is to strip out what teams can’t control and identify where regression is likely.

In application, we focus on the Luck Factor gap, calculated from actual wins versus analytically expected wins. If one team has three more wins than its underlying performance supports (i.e., +3 luck) and the opponent has three fewer wins than expected (–3 luck), the resulting luck gap is 6.

That differential matters because markets tend to price records, not causes. Large positive gaps flag teams that are often overvalued, while large negative gaps identify teams that are undervalued and “due” as variance normalizes.

Denver has 1.3 more wins than they earned with OKC with 2.2 fewer, a Luck Gap of 3.5 saying OKC is undervalued. 

Large away favorites that don’t have a bad delta points allowed is 1368-1066-47. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total. 

Big favorites versus opponent fat and happy off a win is 564-395-20. When the team we are betting on is also angry off a win, it’s 60.5% and 15.5 ROI. Fade big dogs with great records is 755-562-34 for +136.80 units and nice 9.4 ROI. 

Our contrarian indexes, with worldwide online and brick and mortar sportsbooks, the other has to do with super-square outlaw money, has this as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide. In particular, public dogs generally die. 

Winsanity rolls on.

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy just posted a 7–1 night, improving to 322-254 overall, +$4,427 at $100 units.

College basketball continues to dominate at 113-75 (60%), +$3,018. Today, 4 more winners, led by the Summit League Game of the Year. 7 NBA led by 3 Wise Guy bets!

The NBA stays scorching at 65%.

No gimmicks. No volatility chasing.

Just proven edges, disciplined execution, and results that keep stacking across every sport.