Jack's Free Pick Monday: Boston Red Sox -111
I like the spot for the Boston Red Sox tonight. They are coming off two consecutive one-run losses, while the Houston Astros are coming off two consecutive two-run wins heading into Game 1 of this series. I look for the Red Sox to be playing with a sense of urgency tonight.
I also believe Boston has a massive advantage on the mound. Ranger Suarez was a big get for them in the offseason. Suarez went 12-8 with a 3.20 ERA and in 26 starts for the Phillies last season, including 6-5 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 road starts. He allowed one earned run in 7 2/3 innings in his lone start against Houston last season.
Lance McCullers just can't seem to stay healthy for the Astros. He sat out all of 2023 and 2024 before going 2-5 with a 6.51 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in 2025 for the Astros. He allowed 40 earned runs and 10 homers in 55 1/3 innings. He only pitched 8 innings in spring training and will be on a pitch count tonight.
This Houston bullpen was used heavily in splitting their series 2-2 with the Angels over the weekend. The bullpen logged 18 1/3 innings to a 4.91 ERA against Los Angeles. Boston's bullpen pitched 12 innings with a 2.25 ERA in three games against Cincinnati. Bet the Red Sox Monday.
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