Free Sports Picks from Top Betting Handicappers - Best Bets of the Day

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Texas A&M/Houston UNDER 142.5

Houston is the perfect UNDER team. The Cougars rank 351st in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted defense.  They are coming off a 78-47 win over Idaho and just 125 combined points.  They have gone for 142 or fewer combined points in nine of their last 12 games overall.

Texas A&M played a similar team to Houston in St. Mary's in the Round of 64 and won 63-50 for just 113 combined points.  That was even with St. Mary's shooting 10-of-23 (43.5%) from 3-point range and Texas A&M shooting 8-of-23 (34.8%) from deep.

Texas A&M isn't going to be able to speed up Houston just as it wasn't able to speed up St. Mary's.  Houston is going to do everything to make sure Texas A&M doesn't get out and run.  The Cougars are great at taking care of the ball and won't allow easy points in transition.  Nothing will come easy for either team today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

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1* Free Pick on Houston -9½

Houston is the most physical team in the country and it shows every time they step on the court.
They don't just beat you; they wear you down until you want to be anywhere else.

Texas A&M lives on the offensive glass to make up for their poor outside shooting.
The problem is that Houston is one of the few teams that can actually out-muscle the Aggies in the paint.

The Cougars rank near the top of every defensive metric, including effective field goal percentage allowed.
They force opponents into long scoring droughts that turn five-point leads into fifteen-point leads in a flash.

Texas A&M struggles to find consistent scoring when they aren't getting second-chance opportunities.
Against this Houston frontline, those put-back chances will be few and far between.

Houston’s defense is the gold standard because they don't allow anything easy at the rim.
They rank inside the top ten for blocks and steals, making every entry pass a high-risk play for the offense.

Texas A&M relies heavily on drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line to stay competitive.
However, the Cougars have the bench depth to absorb foul trouble and maintain their aggressive style of play.

The Aggies are one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to effective field goal percentage.
If you can't hit jump shots against Houston, you are essentially asking for a blowout loss.

Houston has covered the spread in eight of their last ten neutral-site games.
They travel well and their style of play translates perfectly to the high-pressure tournament atmosphere.

Texas A&M will try to turn this into a rock fight, but Houston is the better team in that environment.
The Cougars are more disciplined and commit fewer unforced errors when the game slows down.

Look for Houston to dominate the middle ten minutes of the game to build a double-digit lead.
Once they have the cushion, they will use their ball control to limit any chance of an Aggie comeback.

The Cougars don't take their foot off the gas even when they have a comfortable lead.
Their relentless ball pressure will force turnovers that lead to easy transition buckets.

This number is big, but Houston's elite defense makes it very hard for opponents to keep the score close.
The Cougars will win the battle in the trenches and pull away late to cover the spread.

Bet Houston -9.5 (-115).

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Botafogo SP +265

The UFC Fight Night main event this Saturday at The O2 Arena in London pits undefeated featherweight contenders Movsar Evloev against hometown fighter Lerone Murphy in a high-stakes matchup with title implications looming. Evloev enters as the betting favorite, riding a perfect 19-0 professional record built largely on relentless grappling pressure and control. He has secured the majority of his victories by decision, 12 out of 19 overall, including all nine of his UFC wins, showcasing a grinding style that wears opponents down through takedowns, top control, and sustained pace rather than seeking early finishes. This approach has proven highly effective against elite competition, allowing him to dominate rounds and avoid risks that could lead to upsets.

Murphy, boasting a 17-0-1 record (with the draw in his UFC debut), counters with explosive finishing power and sharp striking. He has racked up eight knockouts in his career, including several first-round finishes, and his recent UFC performances highlight a knack for landing devastating shots like knees, elbows, and precise combinations. His ability to avoid damage while maintaining high output makes him dangerous in stand-up exchanges, and he thrives when fights remain at range where his reach and power can shine.

One compelling angle here is the historical trend of home-country fighters in UFC events held in the United Kingdom. UK-based competitors have occasionally defied expectations as underdogs, capitalizing on crowd energy, familiarity with the venue, and the psychological boost of performing in front of passionate fans. While not every home fighter wins, these bouts have produced notable upsets or closer-than-expected results, particularly when the underdog possesses knockout upside against a more methodical opponent. Recent UFC cards in the UK have shown that local fighters often perform with extra intensity, turning potential decisions into highlight-reel moments.

Betting trends in featherweight title eliminators and undefeated-vs-undefeated clashes further support looking at the underdog side when the price offers value. Favorites in grinding stylistic matchups can become overbacked due to their consistency and records, but underdogs with finishing tools have cashed at plus-money odds by catching opponents in exchanges or capitalizing on openings that the favorite's cautious approach leaves exposed. Murphy's active schedule compared to Evloev's longer layoff adds another layer, momentum and sharpness can play a role in five-round wars where early damage shifts momentum.

This spot presents a live underdog opportunity at around +195 to +205. Murphy's finishing power gives him a clear path to victory if he keeps the fight standing or stuffs takedowns effectively, while the home-crowd factor and his explosive style make him more than just a live dog, he's a fighter capable of turning the fight with one big shot. For bettors seeking value over chalky favorites in this card, backing Murphy outright offers strong potential in a matchup where the grinding favorite could be vulnerable to power if the pace isn't fully controlled.

*Free Play on Texas* Sean Miller is 11-4 ATS when coaching in the NCAA Tournament on just one day of rest for his team. He has been great at these short turnaround situations. Texas certainly has flaws, but Gonzaga isn't the same team without Braden Huff. They have had several close wins against teams they should have easily beaten. The Longhorns have length and athleticism to bother the Zags here. On the underdog. 

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PSP Data Driven 1* Gonzaga.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Gonzaga is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference. Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Gonzaga.

Texas vs Gonzaga CBB Free Pick

The Angle(s): Gonzaga is 23-11 to the under on the season and held Kennesaw State to 64 points on 36% shooting from the field in the last round. Texas has relied on scoring over defense all season, but I expect the Zags to keep the Longhorns, and the total score, in check. 

The Bet: UNDER (3%). 

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Charlotte Hornets -16

The Memphis Grizzlies will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after a home loss to the Boston Celtics last night.  They will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  They will likely rest some guys that played last night as they are clearly just trying to give their young guys a look in the midst of tanking.  The Charlotte Hornets are trying to win a division title and get out of the play-in.  They won't take the Grizzlies lightly tonight.  They beat the Heat by 30 and the Magic by 19 in their last two games coming in.  They will only be playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  Give me the Hornets.

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Ricky's 1* play on ILL.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- VCU is 1-8 in its last 9 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.

- Illinois is 15-5 in its last 20 games.

- Illinois is 14-4 in its last 18 games played in March.

Verdict: The value is on the favorite.

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Illinois -11

The Key: The VCU Rams were fortunate to come back from 19 points down to beat a short-handed UNC Tar Heels team missing their best player.  The Rams needed OT to prevail 82-78 over the Tar Heels.  Now they have a short turnaround after 5 players played at least 31 minutes for them.  They take a big step up in competition against Illinois, which was able to rest guys late in a 105-70 blowout of Penn.  Illinois will be the best team that VCU has faced this season.  The only other team in their stratosphere is Vanderbilt, which beat VCU by 15 on a neutral.  The Big Ten has been dominant in the big dance thus far and that should continue in this matchup.  Take Illinois.

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The Saturday Comp play comes in round 2 N.I.T Action on Nevada at 9 eastern. Liberty comes in off an upset win in round 1 but these teams in tonights situation likely start packing for a return trip home. Round 2 dogs of 6 or more that are off a dog win at +3 or more are 1-7 straight up and to the spread if they lost the game prior to the upset win as a favorite and the home team won a round 1 game as a favorite. Nevada is 16-2 at home and took out Murray St in round 1 by 14. Liberty first overall on Conference USA rebounded from a round 1 upset loss in Conference tournament action by taking out George Mason on the road but this is a much tougher task. Play on Nevada. GL Rob V-