New York Giants (2-10) at New England Patriots (10-2)
Monday Night Football – 8:15 PM EST – ESPN
Current Line: Patriots -7 (opened -7.5)
Total: 46.5
ATS & Total Trends
Giants
7-5 ATS overall
4-3 ATS on the road
3-1 ATS last 4 games
7-5 to the Over
6-2 Over in last 8
Patriots
8-4 ATS overall
3-3 ATS at home
3-1 ATS vs NFC
6-6 O/U overall
3-1 Over vs NFC
Head to Head (since 2015)
Patriots lead series 2-1
Giants won the most recent meeting in 2023 (10-7 at MetLife)
Since 2001: Giants are an outstanding 6-1 ATS vs New England (3-4 to the total)
Offensive & Defensive Splits
Giants
Score 22.0 PPG (30.9 PPG allowed on the road)
Played the league’s toughest schedule to date
Have held 4th quarter leads in several losses
Patriots
Score 26.5 PPG overall → 29.8 PPG vs NFC
Allow 18.8 PPG overall → 17.3 PPG at home
Last 8 games: allowing just 18.1 PPG
Played the league’s easiest schedule so far
Both teams prefer a methodical, clock controlling pace, but New England’s elite defense consistently gets offenses off the field on third down.
Key Situational Spots
Giants are off to their bye next week → 1-4 ATS in road games before a bye L5
After the bye, Giants face two very winnable games (Las Vegas, Washington) — classic “look ahead” spot
QB Jason Dart is cleared from concussion protocol and expected to start (many believe the team would be wiser to hold him out until after the bye)
National TV road game for a 2-10 team that just suffered a soul crushing OT loss last week
Historical Comp (Marc Lawrence)
The only time this season we’ve seen a 10-2 (or better) team on a 9-game win streak host a team on a 6-game losing streak:
2023 49ers (9-game win streak) vs Cardinals (6-game losing streak) → 49ers won 38-13
Small sample, but the superior team obliterated the inferior one.
Line Movement & Market Sentiment
Opened Patriots -7.5 → steamed down to -7 on heavy Giants money.
The public is pounding the desperate road dog getting points on Monday night. Sharp money has followed.
Final Take
Everything lines up for a flat spot for the Giants:
Road primetime game
Before their bye
Facing a far superior opponent
Coming off an emotionally draining loss
Looking ahead to two soft games post-bye
Meanwhile, New England is healthy, rolling on a 9-game win streak, fighting for the AFC’s #1 seed, and has been a brick wall at home against everyone — especially NFC offenses.
We’re paying a small premium laying the touchdown with the better team in every phase, but this has all the makings of a comfortable Patriots win that covers in the second half.
Play: Patriots -7
Let's cash some tickets!
