Jack's Free Pick Sunday: San Francisco 49ers -3
The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 16.4 points per game. This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (75.8).
Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 34.4 points per game during this five-game winning streak. He just threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis. He should stay hot against a Chicago defense that ranks 19th in scoring at 23.6 points per game, 25th in total defense at 348.1 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.
The 49ers will be max motivated because if they win out they will get the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Bears could be in a big letdown spot here after another improbable 22-16 (OT) home win over the Packers. Trailing 16-6 in the final two minutes, they kicked a 43-yard FG in the wind, got the onside kick and scored a TD on 4th down to tie it at 16-16. They forced a fumble in OT and took advantage with a 46-yard TD pass from Williams to Moore to walk it off.
Several Bears players were seen wearing cheese grater hats after the game as it was a huge win over a division rival in the Packers that gave them a 1.5-game lead. The Bears will be 'fat and happy' off that win, plus they have the luxury of knowing they just need to win one of their final two games to clinch the division, or have the Packers lose one of their final two games. The Packers play the Ravens Saturday night, and if they lose that game the Bears will clinch the division and be even less motivated for this game against the 49ers.
I think the 49ers are the better team on both sides of the football, they are at home, and they have more to play for here. Not only does Kyle Shanahan deserve Coach of the Year for what he is doing with this banged up roster, Robert Saleh is proving his chops as a defensive coordinator. Despite losing Bosa and Warner early in the season, the 49ers still rank 11th in scoring defense at 21.3 points per game and 18th in total defense at 332.2 yards per game. With as good as their offense is, they just need an average defense to be a contender and they have that. They are also as healthy as they have been in a long time on both sides of the football.
Both the Bears and 49ers are 11-4 this season. The Bears rank 1st in the league with a +21 turnover differential while the 49ers are -4. That just shows you how much better the 49ers are as they are a net -25 in turnovers compared to the Bears and still have the same record. The Bears are 7-2 in one-score games. I think this is where Chicago's luck finally runs out.
The Bears haven't been nearly as potent offensively without WR Rome Odunze (44 receptions, 661 yards, 6 TD). They had 6 points in 58 minutes against a banged up Green Bay defense last week. RT Darnell Wright didn't travel with the team. Defensively, the Bears are very short-handed in the secondary with four CB's out and another three CB's questionable, including starters Wright and Gardner-Johnson. LB TJ Edwards is questionable this week as well. Purdy will light up this secondary. The Bears are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after playing Green Bay. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
No. 2 Ranked Football Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has SEVEN Top-10 Football Finishes (#1 2024, #3 2018, #3 2017, #4 2009, #5 2014, #5 2012, #10 2008) to his credit! Jack has put together a MASSIVE 2143-1813 Football Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $147,030! That includes a 1465-1207 Football Run over his last 2672 plays! He backed it up by finishing as No. 1 Ranked Football Capper in 2024-25!
No. 1 Ranked NFL Capper All-Time! Jack has SIX Top-10 NFL Finishes (#3 2009, #4 2023, #4 2017, #5 2024, #8 2019, #10 2008) to his credit! He is riding a 637-505 NFL Run that has his $1,000/game players winning $75,890! That includes a 364-275 NFL Run since November of 2021! He delivered an 81-56 NFL Record two seasons ago and finished as the No. 4 Ranked NFL Capper in 2023-24 as a result! He followed it up with an 87-66 NFL Record last season to finish as the No. 5 Ranked NFL Capper in 2024-25 as well!
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