Free Play for Thursday

St. Louis Cardinals -141

Bottom Line: I like the Cardinals on the road here with the experience of Wainwright and their success against Washington.  The Cards have won 7 straight against the Nationals and are 4-0 in their last 4 in Washington.  They are an impressive 36-16 in Wainwright's last 52 starts as a favorite, including 14-5 in his last 19 starts as a road favorite.  The Nationals are 1-5 in Jordan's last 6 starts as an underdog.  Also, the Cards have won Wainwright's last 3 starts against the Nats.

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1* Free Play Chicago White Sox.

Despite winning yesterday, the Red Sox are reeling a little bit to start the season with injuries to key players and I think their free fall resumes on Thursday. Boston will send lefty John Lester (1-2,  2.57 ERA) to the hill for the second game of this three game set with Chicago. Lester has struggled versus the White Sox over his career with a rather pedestrian 4-5 record and 5.43 ERA. Chicago sends its ace Chris Sale (3-0, 2.66 ERA) to oppose the Red Sox; the lefty is coming off his worst start of the season to date as he gave up three earned runs in just five innings of work but still managed to get the win. Sale has never started a game against Boston in his career but has given up zero runs in 5 2/3 relief innings vs. it. He didn’t get the run support he deserved last season but this White Sox team has a few more potent bats in 2014 and they’ve come up big for him so far. The White Sox are still a strong 6-3 in home games and have won four of their last six overall. Boston meanwhile has lost four of six coming into this contest and is just 4-6 on the road. I think Sale is worth the price of admission in this one.

AAA

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Brewers/Pirates OVER 6.5

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates.  They are overreacting to solid starts to the season by both of tonight's scheduled hurlers in Yovani Gallardo and Edinson Volquez.

Gallardo has opened 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA through three starts this season, while Volquez is 0-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his three starts.  Impressive, indeed, but an aberration when you look at how these starters fared last year.  They haven't magically become two of the best starters in the league in 2014.

It's amazing that Volquez was given the opportunity to start 32 games last season with how awful he was.  The right-hander went 9-12 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in 2013 in his time between the Padres and Dodgers.  Gallardo was better last year, but his 12-10 record with a 4.18 ERA and 1.362 WHIP are certainly nothing to be proud of.

The OVER is 21-10-2 in Gallardo's last 33 starts during Game 1 of a series.  The OVER is 5-0-1 in Pirates last six games as a favorite.  Milwaukee is 26-12 to the OVER in road games vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 runs per game or fewer over the last three seasons.  Pittsburgh is 34-17 to the OVER vs. poor power teams that average 0.9 home runs per game or fewer over the last two years.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

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Milwaukee (Gallardo) @ Pittsburgh (Volquez)-----The Brewers are coming off a confidence building win yesterday vs. Saint Louis and will travel to Pittsburgh and have their ace, Gallardo, on the mound for the first game in this series. The Brewers just swept the Pirates last week and this is a rematch of the same pitching matchup. The Brewers won the game 3-2 as both pitchers tossed solid games. The difference was a RBI by Lucroy in the 8th after Ryan Braun had reached base on a single.  Ryan Braun was given the day off yesterday to get him rested for this game. Braun is 11-for-31 career vs. Volquez. The current Brewers roster is hitting .259 vs. Volquez  with a .427 SLG%. Volquez has a 4.74 career ERA vs. the Brew Crew and while he has only given up 2ER this season in 14 IP, I still have my doubts about this guy.

Gallardo will take the mound for the Brewers with a 2.61 career ERA vs. the Pirates in 21 starts. Gallardo is off to a blazing start this season with a 1.07 WHIP in 3 starts. The Brewers are 8-2 over their last 10 games and are 6-0 on the road. The Brewers have 5 guys in their starting lineup hitting .300+ vs. Volquez. Look for them to get 4+runs across the plate and for the Brewers  2.50 team ERA to hold true in this one here tonight.

Play on Brewers on ML

FREE PLAY for 4/17

Milwaukee Brewers -101

The Key: Milwaukee is showing value at this price on the road with Gallardo gripping the pill.  The Brewers are 6-0 on the highway this season and have won 10 of 11 road games dating back to last season.  Gallardo is in awesome form.  The Brew Crew has won each of his first three starts while he's posted an ERA of 0.96.  Gallardo is 11-3 with an ERA of 2.45 in 20 starts against the Pirates with the Beermakers going 16-4 in these games.  The Brewers are 6-0 in his last six road starts dating back to last season.  Take Milwaukee.

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04/17 05:10 PM  MLB   (971) BOSTON RED SOX VS (972) CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Take: UNDER
Reason: Your free pick for Thursday, April 17th, 2014, comes in baseball as the Red Sox and the White Sox meet in Chicago. Chicago is a good pitchers park and what happens when these teams meet? 4-1-1 under in this park, plus White Sox are 6-0 under when they face AL East after the opener in this series, a 2-1 Chicago win. Boston had only 3 hits! An unimpressive Boston offense is in town, one that is hitting into double plays and not hitting extra base hits. Boston is 9-2 under on road, 13-4-1 run under overall. At least ace Jon Lester is going, 2.57 ERA, having a fine start and the team is 3-0 under the total in his three starts. The under is 15-5-2 in Lester's last 22 starts overall. Unfortunately for the Boston offense faces another ace in Chris Sale, with a 2.66 ERA and a 3-0 record. Don’t look for many hits or runs and the under is 5-1 when the White Sox face a left-handed starter. Play the Red Sox/White Sox Under the total.

Dodgers at Giants (-120  7)

The Dodgers send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound to face Madison Bumgarner at San Francisco.  Ryu was roughed up by the Giants the last time out.  He then pitched very well against the Dbacks.  Who isn’t right now?  Ryu owns a career 3.89 ERA and is 2-3  vs the Giants.  Bumgarner owns the Dodgers.with a career ERA of 2.60 and a record of 9-3.  Throw in the San Fran bullpen ERA of 1.78.  I really looked for reasons to take LA here with them being the dog, but kept coming back to the Giants as a small fav at home.  

<p>

Free Play San Francisco Giants -120

Chicago White Sox -113 

If you like lefties this is the game for you with Jon Lester going against Chris Sale. I like the chances of Sale as much for his ability as for the fact that the Pale Hose are absolutely raking to start the season with power all throughout the lineup.  

Sale can dominate as much anyone in the AL and is off to a hot start. He is also pitching deep into games too with two of his starts going 7+  innings. Great value with Boston coming to town. Good Luck, Razor Ray. 

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<p>Rating: 1 Unit <b>MLB Free Pick</b></p>

<p>A pair of ace left-handers square off Thursday in Chicago when Jon Lester of the Boston Red Sox matches up against the White Sox's Chris Sale. Lester won his last start but remains desperate for run support after the Boston bats produced five total runs in his first three outings. However, it's not likely that the Red Sox offense will break through against Sale, who has won all three of his starts and has held current Boston players to three hits in 25 career at-bats. </p>

The Brewers travel to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Yovani Gallardo is on the hill for the Brewers and he has been on fire.  He is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA over his first 3 starts and should have little trouble dominating the Pirates lineup.  The Pirates have lost 5 of 6 and are not an elite team. Edison Volquez is throwing for the Pirates and he has been one of the brighter spots for the Bucs this season.  Edison is 0-0 with a 1.29 ERA over 2 starts.

This game is in Pittsburgh so there is even more value in the line.  Brewers ML is my free play of the day.

Colorado Rockies (Morales) at San Diego Padres (-130) (Kennedy) 6:40 ET

10* San Diego (-130)

With MLB on a 67% run, I give my strongest winner for Thursday Night Action.  Go into the weekend a winner.

We are right back on the Padres today, following our Top Play of the Day winner on them yesterday.  That victory pushed the Padres mini-streak to 5-2 over which time starters have a 2.89 ERA.  In fact, San Diego starters have allowed 3 or less runs in 7/8 recent games.  Kennedy looks to join that group after working 6 innings, allowing 4 runs on 8 hits, in a 6-2 loss to Detroit.  Chances are that will happen, as in 8 starts against Colorado, Kennedy has a 2.25 ERA.  Always eager to fade the poor traveling Rockies.  Again this season, Colorado stands 4-2 at home but just 3-7 on the road.  Morales is not the answer.  In 12 2/3 IP, Morales has allowed 23 BR, resulting in a 6.39 ERA.  In 14 IP against San Diego, mostly in relief, Morales has a 6.28 ERA.  Ride the San Diego hot streak, with the better pitching against the poor traveling Rockies.

Mac Attack’s 2* MLB Free Play on Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants ML.

The Dodgers have now lost four of their first five games this season against the Giants and are having a hard time hitting the Giants pitching. The Dodgers have just scored three combined runs in their first two games in this series, and Carl Crawford is 0-8 at the plate. Hyun-Jin Ryu will need another solid outing with the lineup struggling, as he’s 2-1 on the season with a 2.57 ERA and has 22 strikeouts in 21 innings pitched. Ryu has started six games against the Giants in his career, and he’s 2-3 with an ERA of 3.89.

The Giants have won four of their last five games and have taken an early lead for first place in the NL West. Brandon belt continues to tear the cover off the ball with a .300 batting average, and he has four hits in this series.

However, the Giants pitching that has allowed two or less runs in three of their last four games has been the real story. Madison Bumgarner has contributed to those numbers, as the Giants starter is 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA and has 20 strikeouts in 16.1 innings. Bumgarner has also dominated the Dodgers in his career, as he’s 9-3 with a 2.60 ERA in 12 starts against LA.

The Dodgers are 7-1 in Ryu's last 8 starts as an underdog and 15-7 in Ryu's last 22 starts. The Giants are 5-0 in Bumgarner's last 5 starts as a favorite and 27-12 in Bumgarner's last 39 starts as a home favorite. The Giants are 5-1 in Bumgarner's last 6 starts vs. Dodgers.

Why would you pick against the Giants at that price. San Fran has had the Dodgers number all season and now has one of its better pitchers on the mound, a pitcher who has won five of his last six starts against the Dodgers. The Dodgers for whatever reason can't hit the ball with a loaded lineup, and it doesn't help with the Giants pitching staff on point. 

Give us the Giants at the very generous odds here.

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Thursday MLB Free Play from Doc’s Sports Take #956 San Diego Padres over Colorado Rockies (Thursday, 6:40pm EST) Two middling teams from the NL West battle it out in San Diego as the Rockies and Padres close out a four-game series on Thursday. We’re less than three weeks into the 2014 season, but it hasn’t taken long to get some separation amongst the competitors in the NL West. The Dodgers and Giants have distanced themselves at the top, the Diamondbacks are the worst team in baseball at the bottom, and that leaves the Pads and Rockies right in the middle. There isn’t a lot that separates these two teams as far as overall ability, but San Diego has some value today for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, they have the edge on the mound with Ian Kennedy. The veteran right-hander is rounding back into his old form from his Diamondback days where he had three very good seasons. He’s cut his walks down significantly so far and his strikeout rate is better. He’s also getting a few more groundballs. Add it all up, and we should see a pitcher with an ERA in the low 3’s if he can keep it up. Franklin Morales goes for Colorado and is getting a second chance in the rotation due to the injury to Brett Anderson. Morales has had trouble maintaining consistency his entire career and so far in 2014 he’s been plain bad. He comes in with a 6.39 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in three appearances. But most troubling is his excessive walk rate at five batters per nine innings. Both of these offenses are comparable when you adjust for park effects. Colorado is a team that has thrived on home field advantage is Coors over the years, but they don’t have that here today. The Padres are a bit better overall, have the better pitching matchup and are playing in Petco. Put it all together and we should get a victory from San Diego.

FREE MLB PLAY THURSDAY  (4-17-14)

HOUSTON ASTROS @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS  (8:10 PM EST)

PLAY ON: HOUSTON ASTROS -115  (MLB)

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ST LOUIS BLUES @ CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS  (8:05 PM EST)

PLAY ON: CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS +122  (NHL)

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DMack's Free Play for Thursday, April 17, 2014 is on the Rays/Yankees Over  

Try as he might, C.C. Sabathia can barely break 90 on the juggs gun and it's shown over the past two years as he's been basically been throwing batting practice. His ERA is 6.63 in three starts this year, basically picking up right where he left off last year. His LT ERA vs the Rays is 3.78 in 34 starts and Tampa Bay has touched up the new svelte big man for 16 earned runs on 22 hits over 18+ innings the last three times they've faced him. David Price rocks a 3.66 LT ERA vs the Bombers with the over 13-6 in those starts. Unless both starters are razor sharp, this one should go flying over the total.

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FREE MLB Over-Under THURSDAY  (4-17-14)

MINNESOTA TWINS @ TORONTO BLUE JAYS (GM 2) (7:10 PM EST)

PLAY ON: OVER 8.5 +108  (MLB)

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