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Dave's Thursday Free Play:

1* on Guardians/White Sox UNDER 8.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the UNDER 8.5 tonight between 2 of the worst offenses in the league in the Guardians and White Sox.  The Guardians rank 26th scoring 3.66 RPG while the White Sox rank 28th scoring 3.42 RPG.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 matchups with 8 or fewer combined runs in 5 of the 6.  Logan Allen has yielded 2 ER in 10 2/3 innings in his last 2 starts against the White Sox.  Jonathan Cannon sports a 4.50 ERA in 72 innings this year and has been respectable at least.  Light winds will be blowing in from left center in Chicago tonight.  Take the UNDER.

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Thursday's Free MLB Pick 

PLAY ON: Cleveland Guardians -124

Free Play – Take #961 Cleveland -124 over Chic. White Sox (7:40 p.m. ET, Thursday, July 10)

The backdrop of this AL Central four-game series is about streaks. Cleveland had lost 10 in a row before heading to Houston, when they made an abrupt turn and swept the Astros to start a three-game winning streak. Yesterday, Chicago ended Toronto’s 10-game winning streak. The White Sox had not stopped a double-digit streak like that in 17 seasons. The series lid-lifter will have Jonathan Cannon (3-7, 4.50 ERA) dueling with Logan Allen (5-7, 4.07 ERA) of the Guardians. Allen has lost his past three starts, though he hasn't pitched poorly in any of those games. In Allen’s last outing, he permitted one run and two hits in six innings in a 1-0 loss to Detroit. My research finds Allen is 7-0 after giving up one or fewer earned runs last start. (Guardians record) At the same time, the Pale Hose have struggled with mediocre competition, going 0-14 against marginal losing teams (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season since 2024.

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Free Video Picks (871-693 long-term) 232-193 and 28-21 runs

1* Free Pick on Braves/A's over 10

1* Best Bet on A's +138

No analysis provided.

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Braves/A's OVER 10

Sutter Health Park in Sacramento continues to be a hitter's paradise.  The Braves and A's have combined for 11 runs in each of the first two games of this series and should reach or exceed that number again in Game 3 given the forecast.  Temperatures will be 100 degrees at game time with light winds blowing out to center.  Spencer Strider continues working his way back from injury.  JP Sears has not enjoyed pitching at Sutter Health Park this season with a 5.63 ERA in 8 home starts.  He also has a 6.99 ERA in 10 night games this season.  Give me the OVER.

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1* Free Pick on Braves -157

1* Free Play on Rangers -108

Thursday MLB Free play. My selection is on Texas over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Thursday.

The Rangers will look to earn a series split with a win on Thursday night in Anaheim. This has been a wild series all the way and there's a good chance we'll see more of the same with the starting pitching matchup of Patrick Corbin for Texas and Jack Kochanowicz for Los Angeles in the finale. Corbin has defied expectations this season, posting a 4.34 FIP and 1.29 WHIP - excellent numbers by his recent standards. The Rangers won his most recent start by a 7-4 score in San Diego and he has worked six innings in back-to-back outings, allowing just five earned runs and one home run. Kochanowicz continues to struggle for the Angels having recorded a 5.58 FIP and 1.56 WHIP in 18 starts. For his big league career he owns a 5-14 record. Look for him to struggle against a Rangers offense that has picked up the pace a bit lately, ranking 11th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last week. Take Texas.

Rangers +102

The Rangers are worth a free move here on Thursday. Texas sends out Patrick Corbin, who has been consistent as of late. He’s at a point in his career, where the vet will give you 5-6 innings and let up 2-3 runs. He logged a quality start at San Diego last timeout. The Rangers offense should give him plenty of support against Kochanowicz, who owns a 5.42 ERA so far this season. Texas has already roughed him up for 8 hits and 4 runs and this will have a similar feel. Back Texas. My daily free plays are meant to be cheap bankroll plays. Remember folks, money management is the key to profits when it comes to sports gambling. Strong lean on the RANGERS ML tonight. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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Jack's Free Pick Thursday: San Diego Padres +111

The San Diego Padres are showing great value as home underdogs to the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday.  I give the Padres the advantage on the mound in this one, which is why the value is so good.

Randy Vasquez has been solid for the Padres this season with a 3.79 ERA in 18 starts.  Vasquez has allowed just 2 earned runs and 9 base runners in 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks.  He has posted a 2.37 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three career starts against Arizona.

It has been a disastrous season for Eduardo Rodriquez to say the least.  He is 3-5 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 15 starts for the Diamondbacks in 2025.  Rodriquez allowed 8 earned runs, 3 homers and 12 hits in 4 1/3 innings to the Royals in his last start on July 4th.  Bet the Padres Thursday.

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T.M. Selection: Padres.

This is the finale of a four-game series and I think that the Padres can even things up after falling 8-2 yesterday. With the win, the D-Backs improved to 23-22 on the road. With the loss, the Padres are still a good 28-17 at home. The bottom line though here is that I trust Padres' starter Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.79 ERA) here over his counterpart Eduardo Rodriguez (3-5, 5.78). Consider the Friars on Thursday night!

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 San Diego.

1* MLB - Dbacks/Padres FREE PICK on Padres +111

This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our Thursday Free Play. The Padres are scuffling around, unable to take advantage of the slumping Dodgers in the National League West but they are just a game out of the final Wild Card spot. The loss last night dropped them to 28-17 at home and they come into tonight as the short home underdog and we will be on that value. Randy Vazquez is coming off a quality start against Texas and has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts and while he has one of the worst K:BB% in baseball, it is not a huge concern when he is at home as he has a 3.12 ERA at PETCO Park compared to a 4.57 ERA on the road. Arizona bounced back from a 1-0 loss on Tuesday as they went yard four times last night which accounted for seven of their eight runs and the offense has been admittedly good on the road. The pitching though has not as they are No. 25 in ERA and that brings in Eduardo Rodriguez who has been awful at home with a 6.32 ERA but has not been much better on the road with a 5.26 ERA which is No. 77 of 100 qualified starters. This is a good spot for the Padres to take this series before a weekend home series against the Phillies. Play (956) San Diego Padres

+$28,240 MLB run. It was a 2-1 Underdog Wednesday in MLB with the winners on the +131 Rays and +114 Angels and we roll that into Thursday. Matt has THREE Underdogs today, one early and a Double Play late. SWEEP IT!

PSP Data Driven 1* Under.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the under.