1* Free Play Minnesota Twins.

I think the home side offers good value in the opener of this four game set. Minnesota turns to Phil Hughes (10-6, 4.06 ERA) who is a pedestrian 3-3 with a 6.34 ERA over his last six starts. The last time he faced the White Sox he gave up four runs over five frames while not receiving a decision in a 10-9 victory in Chicago on April 3rd; note though, Hughes owned a minuscule 1.34 ERA vs. Chicago lifetime previous to that somewhat shaky outing. The visitors counter with Hector Noesi (4-7, 5.21 ERA) who gave up four runs over seven frames in a 5-4 setback at Minnesota on June 20th, lucky to escape with the no-decision. The Twins swept a four game set in this series at Target Field from June 19-22 and all signs point to another rout in my opinion as Hughes gets the slight nod on the bump and that’s more than enough to tip the scales in our favor; consider a second look at MINNESOTA in this one.

AAA Sports

Free Play for Thursday

Cleveland Indians -107

Bottom Line: The Indians get the call as Thursday's free play with Kluber on the hill.  He's been outstanding against the Royals, going 4-1 with a 3.33 ERA in 8 career starts against them.  The Indians are 6-1 in his last 7 starts versus the Royals.  Kansas City's Duffy is 1-1 with a 5.51 ERA in 3 career starts versus Cleveland.  The Royals are 4-11 in Duffy's last 15 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog.  The Indians are 9-1 in Kluber's last 10 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  Bet the Indians.

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Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Seattle Mariners -133

The Seattle Mariners (53-48) are fighting for a Wild Card spot in the American League this season.  They have been one of the most underrated teams in baseball, and the same can be said for tonight's starting pitcher, who doesn't get the credit he deserves season after season.

Hisashi Iwakuma has been nothing short of dominant over the last three seasons.  He went 9-5 with a 3.16 ERA in 2012, and 14-6 with a 2.66 ERA in 2013.  Iwakuma is 8-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.994 WHIP over 15 starts in 2014, including 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.662 WHIP in his last three.

Wei-Yin Chen is no more than an average starter for Baltimore.  The left-hander has posted a 4.21 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including a 4.68 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in eight road starts.  Chen is 0-2 with a 4.56 ERA in four career starts against Seattle.

Iwakuma is 14-4 (+15.4 Units) against the money line after two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  The Orioles are 0-4 in their last four games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  The Mariners are 20-9 in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record.  Seattle is 16-5 in Iwakuma's last 21 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.  Bet the Mariners Thursday.

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FREE PLAY for 7/24

San Diego Padres -121

The Key: The Cubs can't be trusted with Edwin Jackson on the mound.  They are just 16-35 in the veteran right-hander's last 51 starts, 6-20 in his last 26 starts as an underdog of 1-10 in his last 11 starts versus NL West foes.  He has a 5.61 ERA on the season and an ugly 9.60 ERA over his last three starts.  He is 0-5 with a 6.95 ERA in nine career starts versus the Padres with his clubs losing each of his last eight starts against them.  San Diego's Tyson Ross has a 2.70 ERA on the season and a 1.35 ERA over his last three starts.  He should benefit from facing a Chicago club that isn't familiar with his stuff.  His only previous appearance against the Cubs came in relief with Oakland in 2010, yielding no hits over two scoreless innings at Wrigley Field.  The Padres are 5-1 in their last six versus NL Central opponents and 5-2 in Ross' last seven starts versus NL Central clubs.  Take San Diego.

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Thursday's MLB Free Pick  ---San Diego Padres -121---

This is a great spot to back the Padres. As bad as San Diego has been in 2014, the Cubs have been even worse and Chicago has been a free fall since trading away Samardzija and Hammel. The Padres won easily 8-3 yesterday and I like their chances of cashing in another comfortable win given today's pitching matchup.

San Diego will send out Tyson Ross, who despite a 8-10 record has a strong 2.70 ERA and 1.171 WHIP over 21 starts. Ross has been even better of late, posting a 1.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Chicago will counter with Edwin Jackson, who has been one of baseballs worst starters this season. Jackson is 5-10 with a 5.61 ERA and 1.563 WHIP over 20 starts and comes in with an awful 9.60 ERA and 1.800 WHIP over his last 3 starts. On top of that, Jackson is 0-5 with a 6.95 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over 9 career starts (1-9 team record) against the Padres.

Key Trends - Jackson is 5-19 over the last 3 seasons against poor power teams who average 0.9 or less home runs per game and 3-17 in his last 20 starts following a start where he didn't walk a batter. San Diego is 5-1 in their last 6 against the NL Central and 4-1 in Ross' last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.

System - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SAN DIEGO) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after scoring 8 runs or more are 233-130 (64%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE PADRES -121!

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Detroit Tigers +120

This is a good pitching matchup with Max Scherzer vs. Garrett Richards. This one comes down to the fact that I believe in Scherzer a lot more than Richards at this point so getting him at +120 is just too good value to ignore. If you are looking for more, you can also see that Scherzer to just 3 hits over 7 innings back in April. 

He has only been an underdog twice all season and the Tigers won both games.  On the diamond you have to take your chances a little more.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Thursday 5* FREE MLB Play

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072514

Arizona (Miley -1.15) over Philadelphia (Kendrick) @ 7:05 Eastern

Philadelphia is coming off a much needed series closing win over the Giants behind lefty Cole Hamels who is on an incredible run via quality starts.  Tonight, though, the Phillies return to action when Arizona comes to town.  The Phillies are 6-2 L8 in the series 13-3 in Philly vs. Arizona.  Actually, Arizona has a better road mark at 23-25 than the Phillies home record of 20-32.  For Arizona lefty Miley hits the hill with 4 straight quality starts.  The D’backs have won Miley’s last three team starts behind 20 2-2/3 innings and a 1.74 ERA.  Arizona is a PERFECT 5-0 off a loss and 4-0 vs. a losing unit.  Philadelphia is 3-10 in Kyle Kendrick’s L13 team starts.  Critical the Phillies are 0-6 as an underdog.  The club house in Philadelphia is riddled with trade talk because of aging veterans and inconsistent play up and down the lineup.  Manager Sandberg is trying to make changes, but the Phillies are hitting only .238 as team #27 in baseball.  Actually, Arizona is a better hitting unit #17  with a decent .256 average.  With the D’backs performing much better in July, I will take a ticket with the visitor.

Baltimore was two innings away from sweeping the Angels but it allowed two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to lose by a run. Still, the Orioles were glad to take two of the three games to square back to even on the current roadtrip before starting a four-game series in Seattle. Baltimore is still a solid 29-22 on the road this season and holds onto a three-game lead over the Yankees and Blue Jays in the American League East. The Orioles are 14-2 in their last 16 games following a loss. Seattle lost two of three against the Mets to open the week and is now 9.5 games out in the American League West but it still sitting in the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Mariners could be a lot better but have not been able to get the job done at home where they are just 25-28 on the season. They send Hisashi Iwakuma to the hill and he is having a solid season with a 2.95 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 15 starts but while Seattle is 5-1 in his six road starts, it is just 4-5 in his nine home starts despite his numbers being even better at Safeco Field. The issue is run support as the Mariners are averaging just 2.8 rpg in those nine home outings. Additionally, the Mariners are 0-4 in Iwakuma's last four starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Baltimore turns to Wei-Yin Chen and while he has been average, he is winning. He is 10-3 on the season including 5-1 on the road thanks to a ton of run support as he is getting 6.4 rpg through eight road games. He struggled the first couple months but he has a 3.88 ERA in June and July while allowing three runs or less in eight of those nine starts. The Orioles are 8-3 in Chen's last 11 road starts against teams with a winning record. Play (971) Baltimore Orioles

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I'm backing the KC Royals on Thursday evening.  Much needed back-to-back wins by the Royals after dropping seven of their previous eight games.  A win on Thursday and the Royals would regain second place in the AL Central.  We can't knock Corey Kluber, but this will be the fourth time this season the Royals have faced the Cleveland righty.  Just as important, I expect the Indians to struggle at the plate against KC's Danny Duffy.  The left-hander has been outstanding in most of his last nine starts, allowing 2 runs or less in seven of those outings.  Duffy will face a Cleveland lineup that's 4-14 in 18 road games against lefties this season, averaging just 3.34 rpg. And we should note the Indians have won just 21 of their last 73 games on the road against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or smaller.  I expect the Cleveland lineup to continue to struggle at the plate in this one and I'm recommending a play on the Royals on Thursday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

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FREE PLAY - FROM TONY GEORGE SPORTS 

NY Mets @ Milwaukee

The Mets are on fire.  10-4 run, WOW.  This series is notorious for the Under, 7-1 the last 8 meetings, but remember that trends tend to reverse and even out more times than not and with the total at 7.5, oddsmakers look for this to be a low scoring affair tonight.  I like the Brew Crew at home here, and while their starting pitcher stats do not match the numbers of the Mets starter on the season, the Mets offense, no matter how hot they are will struggle again tonight and that will be doom.

Matt Garza takes the hill at home tonight with a solid 3.71 ERA his last 3 and considering that the Mets as a team are hitting a paltry .156 as a team against right handers their last 5 games, and .170 overall as a team, I consider Garza with run support which he will have, the winning pitcher here tonight as he squares off against Dillon Gee whose ERA on the season is 2.92 but in his last 3 his ERA has increased to 4.00.  It is Garza’s 0.96 WHIP that is impressive in his last 3 starts.  The Brew Crew have put up 18 runs in their last 4 games, including a sweep of the Cincy Reds who were hot, while the Mets have managed just 9 runs in their last 4 games.

It is about pitching and hitting folks, but in this game while I consider the pitching and bullpens almost dead even, it is the hitting and offense of Milwaukee that hold value, especially at home because the Mets are 7 games below 500 on the road.  A little chalky on the line here but worth the stretch for a half unit play in this contest tonight.

Free Pro Pick on Milwaukee -145

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FREE MLB Over-Under THURSDAY  (7-24-14)

CLEVELAND INDIANS @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS  (8:10 PM EST)

PLAY ON: OVER 7.5 +106  (MLB)

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Thursday MLB Free Play from Doc’s Sports Take #965 Cleveland Indians (-107) over Kansas City Royals (Thursday, 8:10pm EST)  We’re roughly 100 games into the 2014 season and there aren’t too many hidden gems floating around the league anymore. But one guy that continues to fly a little bit under the radar is Indian’s starter Corey Kluber. The right-hander has had a breakout season at 10-6 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He also has an impressive 9.7 strikeout rate per nine innings. He didn’t make the All-Star team, which was a big oversight. But that probably gives us some extra value with Kluber not getting all of the attention that he deserves. The Indians as a team struggled a bit out of the gate, but they are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They’ve won 12 of 18 coming into Wednesday and the decisions haven’t been particularly close for the most part. They have outscored their opponents 92-64 collectively during their run and they’re getting contributions from the entire roster. The Royals, on the other hand, have hit a wall after staying in contention near the top of the AL Central for most of the season. Kansas City dipped under .500 for the first time since early June and the main culprit is still the offense. They are 12th in the AL in runs scored and are in desperate need of a bat before the trading deadline. They’ll need a big effort for lefty Danny Duffy today to stay close, and I don’t see it. Duffy has had some impressive outings this season, but he is wildly inconsistent and usually blows up in at least one inning. The Indians are a patient team at the plate, so I’m confident they can put up a crooked number or two in this one. Take the Tribe here.

Free Pick on Chicago White Sox +

The White Sox are showing unbelievable value as a huge road underdog against division rival Minnesota. While Chicago comes in off -back-to-back losses, it's not like Minnesota is playing great either. The Twins are just 2-4 in their 6 games since the break and should not be this big of a favorite with Phil Hughes on the mound.

Hughes has a solid 10-6 record, but has a not so great 4.06 ERA, which is only slightly better than the Hector Noesi's 4.62 ERA. On top of that, Hughes has an ugly 5.49 ERA at at home and has been hit hard in his two starts against the White Sox this season. He allowed 4 runs in 5 innings on 4/3 and 5 runs in 5 innings at home on 6/22. Not to mention Hughes is an awful 2-10 in his last 12 starts at home in night games and his team has lost by an average score of 2.3 to 6.6.

Another huge factor in this one is that the Twins swept the White Sox in the most recent series between these two teams. All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 who are  revenging a sweep at the hands of their opponents, after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival (lost 1-2 to KC yesterday) are 33-16 since 1997. That's a 67% system in favor of the White Sox. Take Chicago!

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On Thursday the free MLB Play is on the Minnesota Twins. Game 968 at 8:10 eastern. The Twins fit a 90% system here that plays on certain home favorites off a home dog win by 2 or more runs in a game where the total was 8 or less and their opponent arrives off a home loss. The Twins are 7-0 as a home favorite of -140 or more and 6-1 as a home favorite off a home dog win. Chicago has lost the last 5 to the Twins and is 0-9 on the road off a 1 run loss and 0-5 as a road dog of +140 or more off a home loss. They have H. Noesi going and he was pedestrian like in a 7 inning 4 earned runs appearance here in June. He will oppose Phil Hughes tonight who has a 7-2 record against them with a 2.78 era. With the Whitesox just 2-8 on throwback Thursday we will take the Twins tonight. On Thursday their are 3 More Big MLB Plays up one is the MLB Game of the Week from a Powerful 27-2 League Wide system, their a Big totals play from a 90% system and a 12-1 Dog system. Jump on and cash big on Throw back Thursday. For the free play take Minnesota. RV