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1% GOLD RUSH on Chargers/Jaguars: over 43½

#463 ASA FREE PLAY ON Carolina Panthers +3.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This game falls into a betting strategy we have used regularly this NFL season with great results and has us on the Panthers plus the points. Atlanta isn’t in the best scheduling situation here having played overseas last week, a loss to the Indianapolis Colts 25-31. The Falcons have been a disappointment this season with 4 straight losses and a 3-6 SU record. Carolina on the other hand has exceeded expectations to this point at 5-5 SU, which includes a 30-0 win at home against this same Falcons team in mid-September. The one key advantage the Panthers utilize is their rushing attack which is 8th in the league at 133.1 yards per game. They run it for 4.6 YPC (13th) which allows them to control the pace of the game. The Falcons should take advantage of an Atlanta defense that allows the 29th most rushing yards per game at 146.4 and gives up 4.9 YPC (27th). On the other side of the football, the Falcons have middling offensive statistics including a 5.5 YPP average (19th). The Panthers defense doesn’t have great overall numbers but they’re near league average in most key categories: 16th YPG allowed 17th in rushing defense and 15th against the pass. Atlanta will have a tough time putting away this pesky Panthers team that is coming off an embarrassing loss last week to the Saints.

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers were stunned at home against the lowly Saints last Sunday but that's a loss many should have seen coming as they were in a big letdown spot returning home off an 'upset' win in Green Bay the previous Sunday. Here, I look for Carolina to bounce back as it looks to sweep the season series against the Falcons. Atlanta has to travel back from Berlin after dropping a tough overtime game against Indianapolis last Sunday. The health of Falcons WR Drake London is obviously a big concern. He's dealing with a back injury on top of an illness and questionable to play on Sunday. Even if he can go, I question where the Falcons can get going from a standing start and win by margin in this divisional clash. Take Carolina.

Big Sunday Card with NFC South Total of the year, an Executive Level Tier 1 Side plus 2 plays from a 38-3 system and on from a 21-0 System including SNF. We also have Early season CBB Systems and NBA. Comp play below.

The NFL Comp play at 1 eastern is on the Under 49 points in the Cincy at Pittsburgh game. This one fits  a nice 9-1 under system that pertains to Divisional home teams in week 16 or earlier in the 2nd meeting of the season if the posted total is between 46 and 56 and the home team is favored by 13 or less vs a team off a bye week. The Bengals have the extra rest to figure out how to fix an inept defense. The Steelers are 4 of 5 under after scoring 10 or less and are hanging on at 5-4 in the AFC North. They are 5-1 under in divisional home games. Expect this game will see some points but stay under the total here today. GL Rob V-

OU:1-9-0 

Nov 16, 202501:00Sun112025SteelersBengalshome------5.549

1* Free Pick on Rams -2½

Ravens @ Browns
Sunday, November 16, 2025 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Records & Trends

Ravens (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS): 2-2 ATS on road, 1-0 ATS in division, 3-1 ATS L4 games
Browns (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS): 3-0 ATS at home, 1-2 ATS in division, 1-3 ATS L4 games

Head to Head History
Baltimore crushed Cleveland 41-17 in Week 2. Ravens have won the last 3 meetings; Browns have dropped their last 2 (both road losses). Cleveland’s lone bright spot lately: a 31-6 home rout of Miami. No visitor has scored more than 17 points at Huntington Bank Field this season (Week 3 vs. CIN).
Offensive Matchup
Baltimore boasts a top 10 rushing attack led by Derrick Henry, but Cleveland’s pass defense is stingy and Myles Garrett is a one man wrecking crew. Expect constant heat—Henry included. The Ravens explosive offense faces a Browns D that ranks 25th in points allowed yet has been lights out at home.
Underdog Angle
Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as a home division dog. In the Week 2 blowout, the Browns actually outgained Baltimore, posted more first downs, and ran 19 more plays—despite starting Joe Flacco.
Intangibles
Myles Garrett publicly called out the team after last week’s loss. Facing a division rival at home, the Browns will bring maximum effort. Rookie QB Dillon Gabriel keeps the offense simple against a Ravens defense that bleeds points.
Expectation
Low scoring, physical slugfest. Cleveland’s home dominance + motivation + historical cover rate as a divisional dog keeps this within a touchdown.
Pick: Browns +7.5 (BetOnline has +9 as of posting 11/15 4:45 EST)

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