Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Washington -27

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Washington Huskies early in the season after going 13-18 overall while finishing in 18th place in the Big Ten and failing to quality for the conference tournament.  The Huskies will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season and should make a run at the NCAA Tournament.

Danny Sprinkle led Montana State and Utah State to three consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances from 2022 to 2024.  His first season at Washington was a disaster, but this proven winner will get it turned around this season thanks to the players he was able to bring in to help out 2024 McDonald's All-American Zoom Diallo, who averaged 11.7 PPG as a freshman last year.

USC transfer Wesley Yates (14.1 PPG) shot 43.9% from 3-point range last season and added 1.2 steals per game.  SoCon Player of the Year Quimari Peterson did it all at East Tennessee State.  Freshman Hannes Steinbach is a stretch big and elite passer coming over from Germany.  Bryson Tucker is ready for a bigger role after averaging 5.4 PPG and 2.9 RPG as a freshman at Indiana last year.  Lathon Sommerville is a Rutgers transfer that adds physicality to the interior to go along with injury-plagued senior C Frank Kepnang (6.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG), who is healthy to start the season.

The Huskies blitzed Arkansas-Pine Bluff 94-50 as 33.5-point favorites in their opener.  Steinbach shined with 21 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists showing off his versatility at 6-11.  Diallon had 14, Yates 14, Peterson 13 and Tucker had 12 points.  Sommerville added 9 points and 5 rebounds while Kepnang had 7 points, 9 boards and 2 blocks.

Denver is picked to finish near the bottom of the Summit League this season.  It's easy to see why as the Pioneers are rebuilding under first-year head coach Tim Bergstraser, who was previously at DII MSU-Moorhead.  Denver loses all five starters and only brings back one player that played any significant minutes last year.  Bergstraser will be relying on mostly transfers that he brought with him from MSU-Moorhead.

The Pioneers lost 84-73 at Seattle as 12.5-point dogs in their opener.  I think the fact that they covered the spread, albeit by just 1.5 points, provides us with extra value here.  The Pioneers turned it over 18 times and shot just 37.5% against a Seattle team that lost three of its top four scorers from last year.  Bet Washington Thursday.

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15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Long Island/IU Indy OVER 182

IU Indianapolis brought in West Liberty DII head coach Ben Howlett to try and turn around the program.  At the very least, the Jaguars will be one of the most fun teams to watch in the country.  He brings a brand of positionless basketball with him, running a player-driven motion offense and 40-minute pressure on defense.  The goal is to play as fast as possible and speed the opponent up.

West Liberty averaged over 100 points per game last season under Howlett.  He brought three West Liberty transfers with him.  The Jaguars are off to an eye-opening start, losing 118-102 to Ohio State for 220 combined points while sailing OVER the 171.5-point total by nearly 50 points.  Oddsmakers are going to struggle to set their totals high enough in the early going, including tonight.

Long Island also likes to play fast and is coming off a 89-67 loss at Notre Dame which went OVER the 136-point total by 20 points.  That's a ND team that likes to play slow, too.  Long Island has some nice chemistry with three starters and four key reserves back from a team that went 17-16 last year, including their top two scorers in Malachi Davis (17.7 PPG) and Jamal Fuller (12.5 PPG).  They added two-time JUCO All-American Greg Gordon who is an elite scorer.  They will all relish this opportunity to pad the stat sheet against IUPUI.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Illinois State ML +105

Illinois State is coming off a 22-win season and looks like a contender to win the Missouri Valley this season.  The Redbirds return three starters including their two leading scorers in Chase Walker (15.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Johnny Kinziger (14.6 PPG, 78 3-pointers).  They also return Landon Wolf (6.3 PPG), Ty Spence (7.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG) and Jack Daugherty (6.3 PPG, 59 3-pointers).  They are one of the most experienced teams in the country.

Ohio went 16-16 last year and figures to be worse off this year.  That's because they lost three of their top four scorers from last year in Clayton (14.0 PPG), Brown (13.2 PPG) and Mitchell (13.2 PPG).  That's a lot of production to replace, and the Bobcats are off to a rough start.

Ohio lost the opener 89-85 to Arkansas State as 3.5-point home favorites.  That's a Arkansas State team rebuilding with a first-year head coach.  The Red Wolves have five new starters this season, so the fact that they beat Ohio on the road is a bad sign for the Bobcats.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Illinois State on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Georgia Southern/App State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61

Georgia Southern is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Eagles are 6-2 OVER in their eight games this season finishing with 62 or more combined points in five of their last seven games overall.  The Eagles rank 33rd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds.

Appalachian State plays even faster.  The Mountaineers rank 10th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.2 seconds.  They have gone 4-2 OVER in their last six games finishing with 60 or more combined points four times.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game, and this total of 61 is too short for a game involving these two teams right now.

Georgia Southern has one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Eagles rank 127th allowing 35.4 points per game, 133rd allowing 469 yards per game and 127th allowing 6.5 yards per play.  The Mountaineers should be able to name their number here, and I fully expect the Eagles to be able to keep up in a shootout.

Georgia Southern QB JC French is very comfortable in Clay Helton's offense.  He is completing 61.5% of his passes for 1,677 yards and 14 touchdowns while also rushing for 202 yards and five scores.  He should light up a App State defense that allowed 45 points to Coastal Carolina recently.  There will be no wind and no rain in the forecast for this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* UTSA/USF ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 67

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all six games.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the entire country in tempo snapping the ball every 21 seconds.

The Bulls are relentless on offense.  They are averaging 49 points per game, 574.8 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play in conference games.  They have incentive to run up the score as they are trying to not only win the AAC, but do it with style points.  We saw just that when they beat Charlotte 54-26 and North Texas 63-36 in recent weeks.

UTSA has gone 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall finishing with 74 combined points with Rice, 72 with North Texas and 74 with Tulane.  So this total of 67 isn't really that high when you look at recent results for both teams.  UTSA has an elite offense and terrible defense.

The Roadrunners racked up 48 points on a very good Tulane defense last week finishing with 523 total yards in the proces.  QB Owen McCown was near perfect, completing 31-of-33 passes for 370 yards and 4 TD in the win.  He should light up this soft USF defense as well.  But the Roadrunners allow 30.2 points per game, 401.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season to rank 113th, 124th and 103rd in the country in those respective categories defensively.

These teams last met in 2023 and finished with 70 combined points.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain expected.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Clippers/Suns NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix ML -122

The injury situation really favors the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They get Jalen Green into the lineup for the first time this season as he comes over from the Rockets in the Kevin Durant trade.  They are fully healthy with the exception of Dillon Brooks now.

The Clippers will be without their two best players in James Harden (23.3 PPG, 8.6 APG) and Kawhi Leonard (24.3 PPG).  The Clippers have been overvalued all season and continue to be overvalued here as a short road underdog without these two.  They are 3-4 SU & 1-6 ATS this season and it won't get better until these two return.  Bet the Suns on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Raiders/Broncos AFC West No-Brainer on Denver -8.5

Note: I really like a 6-point teaser with the Broncos -2.5/Eagles +8.5.  The Lions -2.5 or better is another good option to pair with the Broncos.

Teams on short rest off an OT game are 26-47 SU & 23-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  Road teams in this spot are 9-27 SU & 10-25-1 ATS.  Worse yet, those same overtime teams when playing on Thursday night football are 6-21 SU & 4-23 ATS over the last 20 years.

That's what the Las Vegas Raiders are up against tonight.  They are coming off a gut-wrenching 30-29 OT loss to the Jaguars last week in which their defense was on the field basically the entire 2H.  That game was their 'last stand', and they missed the potential game-winning 2-point conversion in OT.  It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after that defeat.  

The Raiders were sellers at the trade deadline sending their best receiver in Jakobi Myers to the Jaguars.  This is likely the worst WR room in the NFL now and it's no wonder Geno Smith has looked like a shell of his former self all season.  The Raiders rank 29th in scoring at 16.5 points per game and 30th in total offense at 283.2 yards per game.  It's not going to get any better without Myers moving forward.

Geno is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL to boot.  That offensive line will not hold up tonight against the best pass rush in the NFL in the Broncos, who lead the NFL with 40 sacks and are also 1st in allowing the fewest sacks (9) in the league.  Denver ranks 4th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 279.9 yards per game and 1st at 4.8 yards per play.

This tired Raiders defense will not be able to contain this Denver offense.  This Raiders D was on the field for 76 plays against the Jaguars on Sunday.  The Raiders have allowed 25 or more points in five of their last six games with the only exception coming against the lowly Titans.  They have allowed 30 or more points in four of their last six games.  Denver should easily win this game by double-digits, just as it did in both meetings last season.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.