Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Boston Red Sox -120

The spot really favors the Boston Red Sox tonight.  They had yesterday off while the Houston Astros were playing a double-header in Baltimore on Thursday.  It's safe to say the Red Sox will be the fresher team for Game 1 of this series Friday.

I'll also gladly fade Houston's Michael Burrows.  He is 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 22 earned runs and 7 homers in 31 2/3 innings.  Burrows allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings to the Red Sox on April 1st, so they've already seen him once this season.  This awful, tired Houston bullpen has a 6.63 ERA as well.

Jake Bennett will make his MLB debut for the Red Sox today.  He has earned this promotion by going 2-1 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in five starts at Triple-A this season, allowing just 2 earned runs and 15 base runners in 21 innings.  Bet the Red Sox Friday.

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20* Cavs/Raptors Game 6 No-Brainer on Toronto +4.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a terrible road team in the playoffs over the last several seasons.  They lost outright as favorites by 22 in Game 3 and by 4 in Game 4 in Toronto.  But most alarming was them being life and dead with the Raptors at home in Game 5.

The Raptors only lost 125-120 in Cleveland in Game 5 despite a lot of things going against them.  Brandon Ingram got hurt early in that game, and the Cavs shot 53.1% from the field and 50% from 3.  The Raptors were able to hang tough by outrebounding the Cavs by 13, and they have really been outworking them on the boards to turn this series around.

Too much is being made of the Ingram injury.  He has actually been a liability for the Raptors in this series, shooting it terribly.  Barrett and Barnes are playing the best basketball of their careers to keep the Raptors competitive in this series.  And I expect them to win outright tonight.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

15* Lakers/Rockets Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 205.5

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and the Rockets without Kevin Durant.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That clearly was not going to happen again in Game 2.  The Lakers won 101-94 for 195 combined points in yet another defensive battle despite the fact that Kevin Durant returned.

Durant sat out Game 3 and the Lakers pulled off the 112-108 (OT) upset.  This game was tied 101-101 at the end of regulation for just 202 combined points and it was a terrible beat for UNDER bettors like myself.

Game 4 was the outlier with the Rockets winning 115-96 for 211 combined points, barely sneaking over the total.  The Rockets shot 50% from the field and the Lakers 48.1% and it still only reached 211.  It was the blowout nature that allowed both defenses to relax in the 4Q and squeak over the total.

Game 5 was back to reality with the Rockets beating the Lakers 99-93 for 192 combined points.  Four of five meetings in this series have seen 205 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation, and that should hold true for this one as well.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  I expect this game to be close, and for the defensive intensity to be there for 4 quarters for both teams.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Padres OVER 8

The Padres are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in seven consecutive games now, so this total of 8 is pretty low for a game involving the Padres right now.

The White Sox are 10-6 OVER in their last 16 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 11 of those 16 games, and 11 or more combined runs in nine of them.  They have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball, but a terrible staff and bullpen that has a 4.88 ERA on the season.

Left-handed rookie Noah Shultz is talented, but this will be one of his toughest tests of the season.  The Padres are hitting .267 against left-handed starters this season and will be going with a right-handed heavy lineup tonight to counter him.

German Marquez is an absolute gas can.  He is 3-1 with a 4.38 ERA in five starts this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 6 homers in 24 2/3 innings.  Marquez allowed 6 earned runs and 11 hits in 6 innings of a 10-3 loss to the White Sox in his last start against them last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Blue Jays/Twins OVER 8.5

Two gas can starting pitchers go tonight in Minnesota when Patrick Corbin takes on Simeon Woods-Richardson.  This will actually be the 2nd meeting of the season between these two starts, and that gives both lineups a big advantage having already seen them once.

Woods-Richardson is 0-4 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 21 earned runs, 6 homers and 51 base runners in 30 innings.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings of a 10-4 loss to the Blue Jays on April 10th.  Woods-Richardson is now 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA in three career starts against Toronto, allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 12 innings.

Patrick Corbin has been one of the worst starters in baseball for the last several years.  He is due some regression after a decent start this season.  Corbin is 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in six career starts against Minnesota, allowing 23 earned runs and 8 homers in 30 2/3 innings.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings on April 10th in his last start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* DBacks/Cubs NL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

The Cubs are scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.  They are 17-5-1 OVER in their last 23 games overall with 7 or more combined runs in 18 of those 23 games, and 8 or more in 16 of them.  The Cubs have scored at least 7 runs in 10 of their last 17 games overall.  This total of 7 is too short for a game involving the Cubs right now.

The Diamondbacks are 13-6-2 OVER in their last 21 games overall with 7 or more combined runs in 20 of those 21 games.  They are scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 5.5 runs per game this season.  This total of 7 is too short for a game involving the Diamondbacks as well.

Zac Gallen has notoriously had huge home/road splits throughout his career.  This season is no exception as he is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in three road starts this season, allowing 8 earned runs and 25 base runners in 14 innings.  Gallen has allowed 10 earned runs, 3 homers and 17 base runners in 10 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.

Colin Rea is 3-1 with a 4.61 ERA for the Cubs this season, allowing 14 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings.  Rea is 0-0 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in four career starts against Arizona, allowing 12 earned runs and 30 base runners in 18 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Brewers/Nationals OVER 8

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 21-9-2 OVER in all games.  They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per game this season.  They have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.02 ERA.

The Brewers just scored 28 runs in their three-game series with the Diamondbacks.  They should stay hot at the plate tonight against Jake Irvin, who is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in six starts this season while allowing 16 earned runs in 29 2/3 innings.  Irvin has allowed 8 earned runs and 17 base runners in 9 innings in his last two starts against Milwaukee.

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket with temps in the 60's and light winds blowing out to center in Washington tonight.  I think Jacob Misiorowski (1-2, 3.31 ERA) is getting too much respect here keeping this total lower than it should be tonight.  The OVER is 5-1 in Misiorowski's six starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Reds/Pirates OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Reds and Pirates tonight.  There will be 10 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center.  It was a similar forecast the last three days when the Pirates went 3-0 OVER in their last three home games with the Cardinals going for 18, 9 and 15 combined runs.

The Pirates have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  The Reds are heating up at the plate going 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in eight of those 11 games, including 6 runs or more seven times.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in nine of their last 11 games.

Brady SInger is 2-1 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in six starts for the Reds this season, allowing 16 earned runs, 5 homers and 47 base runners in 29 innings.  Singer has allowed 8 earned runs in 9 innings for a 8.00 ERA in his last two starts against Pittsburgh.  He is 2-4 with a 6.37 ERA in six career starts against them.

Mitch Keller is 3-6 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 19 career starts against the Reds.  He has allowed 58 earned runs and 11 homers in 93 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night Line Mistake on Dodgers/Cardinals OVER 8

The Cardinals are really a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are scoring 5.0 runs per game and allowing 5.1 runs per game with a terrible bullpen that has a 5.15 ERA this season.  The Cardinals are 3-0 OVER in their last three games going for 15, 9 and 18 combined runs with the Pirates.

The Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.4 runs per game this season.  They have actually been a lot better at scoring runs on the road.  This total of 8 is too low for these two starting pitchers, lineups and bullpens.

Emmet Sheehan is 2-0 with a 4.78 ERA in five starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 26 1/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Matthew Liberatore, who is 0-1 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 16 earned runs and 8 homers in 30 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.