Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Rays/Guardians UNDER 7

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 7 ticket between the Rays and Guardians this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 50's with double-digit winds blowing in from center field and the possibility of rain to boot.  Conditions will certainly be favorable for these two solid starting pitchers.

Drew Rasmussen is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in five starts for the Rays this season.  He has allowed just 7 earned runs and 18 base runners in 25 2/3 innings with 26 K's.  Rasmussen has owned the Guardians with a 1.69 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in four career starts against them, allowing just 3 earned runs in 16 innings.

Gavin Williams is 4-1 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six starts for the Guardians this season.  He has allowed just 13 earned runs and 39 base runners in 35 2/3 innings with 44 K's.  Williams has thrived against the Rays, going 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA in four career starts against them while allowing just 6 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings.

The UNDER is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between the Rays and Guardians with 7 or fewer combined runs in seven of those eight meetings, and 6 or fewer in six of them.  They have combined for 5 runs or fewer in four consecutive meetings, including the first two meetings in this series.  It should be more of the same in Game 3 today given the forecast.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

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15* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Rockies/Reds OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati tonight.  There will be 10 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center.  These teams combined for 9 runs on 22 hits yesterday and it should be an even higher-scoring game today.

The Reds are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those nine games, and 11 or more five times.  They have scored at least 5 runs in seven of those nine games.

Tomoyuki Sugano is 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA in five starts for the Rockies this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 26 1/3 innings.  He went 10-10 with a 4.64 ERA in 30 starts for the Orioles last season and is due some regression in Colorado.

Brandon Williamson is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five starts for the Reds this season.  He has allowed 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 25 innings.  Williamson is 0-1 with a 9.35 ERA in two home starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 8

The Red Sox have scored a total of 27 runs in their last four games and are starting to come to life at the plate.  The Blue Jays have scored at least 3 runs in eight of their last nine games, and 4 runs or more six times.  

After two brutal starting pitching matchups to open this series with Suarez vs. Cease and Tolle vs. Yesavage, the hitters should finally have their way in Game 3 today against these two gas can starting pitchers.

Bryan Bello is 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.27 WHIP in five starts for the Red Sox this season.  He has allowed 22 earned runs, 8 homers and 50 base runners in 22 innings.

Eric Lauer hasn't been much better, going 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in four starts and one relief appearance this season.  He has allowed 17 earned runs, 6 homers and 35 base runners in 22 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Angels/White Sox OVER 8.5

There will be 15 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Chicago this afternoon to aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Angels and White Sox.  These are two dead nuts OVER teams as it is.

The White Sox are 10-5 OVER in their last 15 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 11 of those 15 games, and 11 or more combined runs in nine of them.  The Angels are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs in five of them.

The only game that didn't go over was yesterday in a great starting pitching matchup between Soriano and Martin that saw 7 combined runs and a total of 7.5.  This is a big downgrade today in quality of starting pitchers.

Yusei Kikuchi is 0-3 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP In six starts this season, including 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in four road starts while allowing 16 earned runs in 18 innings.  Erick Fedde is 0-3 with a 3.42 ERA in three starts and two relief appearances for the White Sox this season.  The Angels have a 5.71 ERA as a bullpen while the White Sox have a 4.98 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Pirates OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Cardinals and Pirates tonight.  There will be steady 15 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Pittsburgh.  It should be a similar slug fest to yesterday when the Cardinals beat the Pirates 11-7 for 18 combined runs.  These are two underrated offenses with both averaging 4.8 runs per game this season.

Andre Pallante is 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in five starts for the Cardinals this season.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 36 base runners in 25 1/3 innings.  Pallante allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings of a 8-3 loss to the Pirates in his last start against them.

Bubba Chandler is 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five starts for the Pirates this season.  He has allowed 13 earned runs and 36 base runners in 24 innings.  Chandler allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners in 4 innings to the Rangers in his last start.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Cubs/Padres NL No-Brainer on OVER 9

The Cubs are scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.  They are 16-5-1 OVER in their last 22 games overall.  They have scored at least 7 runs in 10 of their last 16 games overall.

The Padres are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall.  They have gone for 10 or more combined runs in six consecutive games now.

Matt Waldron is 0-1 with a 12.46 ERA and 2.31 WHIP in two starts for the Padres this season, allowing 12 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.  Jameson Taillon is 1-1 with a 4.55 ERA in five starts for the Cubs, including 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two road starts, allowing 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Magic/Pistons UNDER 212

Both the Pistons and Magic are big, physical defensive-minded teams.  Both lack the shooting needed to make a deep postseason run.  That makes this a great matchup for UNDERS.

The Magic are 7-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall and have been in playoff mode in all seven games.  They went for 206 combined points with the 76ers in the play-in and 211 combined points with the Hornets in the play-in before going for 213 combined points with the Pistons in Game 1 of this series.

Game 2 saw the Pistons bounce back with a 98-83 win and 181 combined points in a dominant defensive effort.  Game 3 was the outlier with the Magic winning 113-105 for 218 combined points.  The Magic shot 15-of-33 (45.5%) from 3 in Game 3 including 7-of-9 from Desmond Bane.

Game 4 the shooting came back down to reality in a 94-88 win by Orlando and just 182 combined points.  Now the books have set this total at 212 for Game 5, which is 30 more points than Game 4 finished with.  This discrepancy is too much as these are two of the worst shooting teams left in the playoffs.

Franz Wagner (19.9 PPG) suffered a calf injury late in Game 4 that will likely keep him out for Game 5.  That's a big blow to the Magic offensively, but he's a liability defensively so they should be even better on that end.  Wagner had scored at least 17 points in seven of his past nine games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 209

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That clearly was not going to happen again in Game 2.  The Lakers won 101-94 for 195 combined points in yet another defensive battle despite the fact that Kevin Durant returned.

Durant sat out Game 3 and the Lakers pulled off the 112-108 (OT) upset.  This game was tied 101-101 at the end of regulation for just 202 combined points and it was a terrible beat for UNDER bettors like myself.

Game 4 was the outlier with the Rockets winning 115-96 for 211 combined points, barely sneaking over the total.  The Rockets shot 50% from the field and the Lakers 48.1% and it still only reached 211.  It was the blowout nature that allowed both defenses to relax in the 4Q and squeak over the total.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  I expect this game to be close, and for the defensive intensity to be there for 4 quarters for both teams.  Three of four meetings in this series have seen 205 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation, and that should hold true for this one as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.