Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: 76ers/Celtics OVER 213

The books have progressively set the total in this series lower and lower after three straight unders to open the series.  They dropped it down to 213.5 for Game 4, and the Celtics went off from 3 in a 128-96 victory and 224 combined points.

Now they have set it even lower at 213 for Game 5, and I believe there's value with the OVER for a couple of reasons.  The main one being Joel Embiid (26.8 PPG) returning for Game 4, and he should be even more productive in Game 5 in his 2nd game back.  Embiid helps open up everything offensively for Philadelphia, but he's still a liability defensively.

The Celtics are going to continue to hoist up 3-pointers at the highest rate in the NBA tonight.  They are averaging 114 points per game in this series and will likely eclipse that to pave the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  

But the 76ers should have one of their best offensive games of the series after being held in check in three of four games thus far.  And with their season on the line, fouls could definitely come into play in the 4th quarter.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -111

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after three straight losses to the Dodgers and Padres.  They had gone 11-1 in their previous 12 games while scoring 6 runs or more in nine of those 12 games, and 7 runs or more eight times.

The Cubs have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Edward Cabrera, who is 2-0 with a 2.73 ERA in five starts this season, allowing just 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 29 2/3 innings.  Cabrera owns the Padres, going 1-0 with a 0.54 ERA in three career starts against them, allowing one earned run in 16 2/3 innings with 17 K's.

Walker Buehler went 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts in 2024 and 10-7 with a 4.93 ERA in 24 starts in 2025.  He is 1-2 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in five starts in 2026, allowing 13 earned runs and 33 base runners in 20 1/3 innings.  Buehler allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners in 5 innings in his last start against Chicago.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Phillies OVER 8

The Giants are heating up at the plate going 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall while scoring 6, 6 and 4 runs.  The Phillies are also heating up at the plate going 4-1-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all six games.  This total of 8 is too short tonight given how poor both starting pitchers have been to start the season.

Jesus Luzardo is 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in five starts for the Phillies this season, allowing 21 earned runs and 42 base runners in 27 1/3 innings.  Luzardo is 2-1 with a 5.23 ERA in six career starts against the Giants, allowing 18 earned runs in 31 innings.

Tyler Mahle is 1-3 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in five starts for the Giants this season, allowing 15 earned runs and 6 homers in 25 2/3 innings.  This despite making four of his five starts at home in friendly pitching confines.  In his lone road start, Mahle allowed 8 earned runs in 4 innings to the Reds.  

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia with 9 or more combined runs in six of those seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Blazers/Spurs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 217.5

The Blazers are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have the worst offense in the playoffs, but they were the best defense in the NBA over the final 15 games of the regular season as they were just trying to sneak into the playoffs.

That has played out in this series with the UNDER going 3-1 in four games with 209 or fewer combined points in all three games.  This total of 217.5 has been set too high again for Game 4.  The Blazers are scoring just 101.3 points per game in this series and the Spurs will lock them down again.

The Spurs have scored 112 points per game in this series despite shooting lights out from 3 the entire series, which is unlikely to continue.  They shot 45.5% from 3 in Game 1, 48.5% from 3 in Game 2 and 42.4% from 3 in Game 4.  They can't possibly shoot it any better, and yet three of the four games saw 209 or fewer combined points.  Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tigers/Braves OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.7 runs per game this season.  The Detroit Tigers have a much better lineup than they get credit for scoring 4.6 runs per game this season.

The Tigers have gone 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in six of their last seven.  They have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last eight games.  The Braves are 4-1-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all seven games, and 9 or more in five of them.  They have scored at least 5 runs in six of those seven games.

Two starters due some major regression square off tonight.  Casey Mize can't sustain his 2.51 ERA this season, and Martin Perez in particular can't sustain his 2.70 ERA with how much he pitches to contact.

Mize allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 2/3 innings to the Braves in his lone start against them last season.  Perez allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings to the Tigers in his final start against them last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Astros/Orioles OVER 9

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 21-8 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game and allowing 6.0 runs per game.  They have gone 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall with 11 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.

The Baltimore Orioles are a perfect 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall with 11 or more combined runs in six of those seven games.  A big problem for both of these teams is their bullpens.  The Astros have a 6.31 ERA on the season and a 7.25 ERA on the road, while the Orioles have a 4.18 ERA on the season and a 5.19 ERA at home.

The Astros will make this a bullpen game starting with Kai-Wei Teng.  The Orioles will go with Shane Baz, who is 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs and 43 base runners in 28 1/3 innings.  Baz has allowed 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Astros.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.