Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Providence/Rhode Island UNDER 133

Providence ranks 265th in adjusted tempo this season while Rhode Island ranks 197th.  Both like to play in the half court.  And with this being a rivalry game, the defensive intensity will be maxed out, thus I think we get an UNDER here.

Rhode Island is really struggling on offense this season.  The score 62.9 points per game on 37.4% shooting including 24.6% from 3-point range.  They only average four made 3-pointers per game.  They rank 261st in adjusted offense.  But they do defend well, holding opponents to 64.7 points per game on 41.6% shooting.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 118, 136 and 109 points.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Friars last four games following a loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pacific +10.5

Pacific has some impressive results despite the 3-5 record.  They only lost by 10 at Stanford as 15-point dogs, upset North Dakota State as 5.5-point road dogs and crushed North Dakota by 30 on the road.  They also upset Cal Davis as 6-point road dogs, so they have played their best away from home going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS.  Their four home losses all came by 4 point or less, too, so they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points this season.

Now they are catching double-digits here against a UC-Santa Barbara team that is clearly overvalued.  They have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost outright by 9 as 9-point favorites at Northern Arizona, only won by 13 over Hampton as 17.5-point home favorites, won by 18 over North Alabama as 18-point home favorites, and lost by 11 at Duquesne as 3.5-point dogs.

Pacific beat UC-Santa Barbara 80-71 as 4.5-point home dogs in their lone meeting last season.  The Gauchos are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Pacific Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on North Dakota +16

Portland just got to play Michigan State, Villanova and UNC in a tournament in Portland.  They were flat in their 100-79 win over Multnomah Bible in the game following that tournament, and I still think they'll be lacking motivation here against North Dakota to win this game by margin.

North Dakota is playing very well of late.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset Elon as 6.5-point road dogs, upset Utah Tech by 15 as 3.5-point home dogs, upset CS-Fullerton by 16 as 5.5-point dogs and covered in a 19-point loss at Iowa State as 24-point dogs.

Portland is 2-18-1 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Pilots are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after a combined score of 165 points or more.  The Fighting Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take North Dakota Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2.5

Missouri State has only played two home games this season.  They have one of the better home-court advantages in the country and won their two home games by an average of 29.5 points per game.  Now they play their MVC home opener against Bradley, which is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS away from home this season and losing by 18.0 points per game.

Bradley lost by 22 at Utah State, by 21 on a neutral to Auburn and by 11 on a neutral to Liberty.  Missouri State beat a very good Middle Tennessee team by 24 at home.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as Missouri State is 21-5 SU in its last 26 home meetings with Bradley.  The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Braves with three wins by 15 points or more.

The Braves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  Bradley is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bears are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Warriors OVER 232

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in the NBA in pace and 9th in offensive efficiency.  They have scored at least 119 points in seven of their last 10 games overall.  But they are slacking on defense coming off a championship season, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

Houston is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Rockets rank 12th in pace so they like to push the tempo.  They rank 28th in defensive efficiency as they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  But they do have some talent on offense and like to play small ball, which favors the OVER.  The Rockets have scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games, while allowing 120 or more points in five of their last six.

These teams just met on November 20th two weeks ago with the Warriors winning 127-120 for 247 combined points.  And we only need 232 here, so there's value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Kings/Clippers NBA Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 227.5

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 4th in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency.  Any total below 230 is low for a game involving the Sacramento Kings.

The Los Angeles Clippers may be getting back both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George from injury today to boost their offense.  They will have no problem getting into a shootout with the Kings either way.  10 of Sacramento's last 13 games have seen 229 or more combined points.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going over the total in their previous game, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a bad defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 73-34 (68.2%) since 1996.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: North Carolina +8

It's definitely a worse spot for Clemson than it is for North Carolina.  Clemson had its hopes of making the 4-team playoff crushed last week with an upset home loss to South Carolina.  They gave up 360 passing yards to Spencer Rattler.  UNC star QB Drake Maye should light up this Clemson defense as well.

The Tar Heels have been locked into the ACC Championship Game for a few weeks now.  It has shown in their performances the last two weeks with upset losses to Georgia Tech and NC State.  But they should be 'all in' here trying to win their first ACC Championship, and I think we are getting extra line value on them because of those upset losses where they weren't motivated.

Underdogs have gone 9-2-1 ATS in all North Carolina games this season.  They have only lost one game by more than 4 points this season, and that was a 13-point loss to Notre Dame.  Clemson also lost to Notre Dame by 21.  Clemson is coming off its 'dream crusher' loss and may have a hard time getting back up off the mat, no matter what head coach Dabo Swinney says.

Drake Maye will keep the Tar Heels in this game for four quarters.  He is completing 67.7% of his passes for 3,847 yards with a 35-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 629 yards and six scores.  Those are Heisman-esque numbers.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Fresno State +3.5

Jake Haener is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  Fresno State is 5-0 in his five starts since returning from injury while outscoring the opposition by a total of 110 points and by an average of 22.0 points per game to punch their tickets into the Mountain West Championship Game for a rematch with Boise State.

Haener is completing 73.5% of his passes for 2,432 yards with a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio in only eight games this season.  Keep in mind Haener did not play in their 40-20 loss at Boise State in their first meeting.  His presence is going to make all the difference for the Bulldogs, and I fully expect them to win this game outright.

Boise State was fortunate to beat both Wyoming and Utah State in its final two games of the season.  They won 20-17 at Wyoming as 14.5-point favorites, the same Wyoming team that Fresno just beat 30-0.  Last week they were leading by 5 against Utah State in the final minutes and got a red zone stop.   They promptly rushed 91 yards for a TD and got a pick-6 to turn a 5-point game into a 19-point game, and one of the worst beats in history for Utah State +17 backers like myself.  That misleading final is definitely playing into this line.  They gave up 468 yards to Utah State.

While the return of Haener has been huge for the Bulldogs, the play of their defense has been just as important during their current seven-game winning streak.  They won two games without Haener by holding San Jose State to 10 points and New Mexico to 9.  They are allowing just 14.9 points per game in their last seven games.  I think getting a second chance at this Boise State offense, this defense will be much more prepared and won't be caught by surprise by dual-threat QB Taylen Green.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Fresno State) - a good offensive team (390-440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG), after allowing 3.75 yards per play or fewer in their previous game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1992.  The Bulldogs are 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games following an ATS win.  The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with Fresno State Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Michigan OVER 51.5

It will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game.  I think both teams will be playing pretty freely.  Michigan already knows it will be going to the four-team playoff win or lose, while Purdue is just happy to be here after winning the Big Ten West.  I expect both offenses to thrive, and both defenses to struggle in this one.

Purdue has lit up the scoreboard when Aidan O'Connell has been healthy and the weather conditions have been good.  Keep in mind the only game they played in a dome this season they lost 29-32 at Syracuse for 62 combined points.  They had 485 total yards in that defeat to the Orange early in the season.  The Boilermakers haven't faced an offense as good as Michigan, either.  They lost a 31-35 shootout to Penn State and beat Maryland 31-29 in two games against the two best offenses they have faced.

Michigan has yet to play in a dome this season, but we just saw them put up 45 points and 532 total yards against Ohio State on the road.  They have played a weak schedule of opposing offenses this season, and certainly not many passing attacks as good as this Purdue pass attack.  They beat Maryland 34-27 for 61 combined points, combined with Penn State for 58 points and combined for 68 points with Ohio State against the three best offenses they have faced.

Michigan is 13-3 OVER in its last 16 games as a neutral field favorite.  Harbaugh is 6-0 OVER as a neutral field favorite as the coach of Michigan.  The OVER is 8-1 in Boilermakers last nine games following an ATS win.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +17

This is a terrible spot for Michigan.  The Wolverines just went on the road and upset the Ohio State Buckeyes to shock the country.  It was their first win in Columbus in 22 years.  That win punched their ticket into the four-team playoff regardless of whether they lose this game to Purdue or not.  As a result, I don't think they will be fully motivated, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this inflated number.

This is exactly the role that I like to back Jeff Brohm.  He is great as a big underdog.  Brohm is 22-11 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Purdue.  Brohm is 15-3 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of the Boilermakers.  Brohm is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Purdue.  Brohm is 9-1 ATS after winning six or seven of his last eight games as a head coach.

Purdue star QB Aidan O'Connell lost his brother but still played in a 30-16 win at Indiana to punch Purdue's ticket into the title game.  Players will rally around him, and they'll be extra motivated to win this game for their humble quarterback who just does things the right way, earning his spot as a walk on.  He is completing 63.8% of his passes for 3,115 yards with a 22-to-11 TD/INT ratio this season.  He has formed a great chemistry with former high school teammate Charlie Jones, who has 97 receptions for 1,199 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Michigan will gets its points, but Purdue's defense is good enough to hold them in check.  The Boilermakers have an underrated stop unit allowing 23.1 points per game and 347 yards per game.  This game will be played in a dome in Indianapolis, which favors this Purdue offense as well.  Any time the conditions have been perfect this Purdue offense has thrived.  The only few games they struggled they were either without O'Connell or playing in a ton of wind outdoors.  Bet Purdue Saturday.