Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on LA Tech/WKU OVER 144

This total is way too short for a game involving Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers rank 39th in adjusted tempo and control the tempo playing at home.  They are scoring 84.5 points per game and allowing 78 points per game this season, combining to average 162.5 points per game with their opponents.

The Hilltoppers are coming off a 102-91 home win over Sam Houston State for 193 combined points.  WKU and its opponents have combined for at least 145 points in 12 of its 13 games this season, making for a 12-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 144-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on Robert Morris/Oakland OVER 161.5

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 40th in adjusted tempo, 65th in adjusted offense and just 307th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Grizzlies are 10-4 OVER in all games this season scoring 82.5 points per game and allowing 84.2 points per game.

Robert Morris has been a solid offensive team this season scoring 77.0 points per game.  The Colonials have been much better on offense than defense, ranking 159th in adjusted offense but just 221st in adjusted defense.  Both teams should get whatever they want offensively in this high-paced shootout with the Golden Grizzlies controlling the tempo at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Thunder/Suns NBA ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix +10

The Phoenix Suns will be max motivated for revenge tonight after getting blown out 138-89 by the Thunder in the NBA Cup.  They had only lost 123-119 in OKC in their previous meeting.  Now the Suns get the Thunder at home this time around, where they are 11-5 SU this season.

They also face a very banged up Thunder team with Hartenstein out, plus Joe and Wallace questionable.  It's an overvalued Thunder team with the best record in the NBA.  They are coming off three straight wins against short-handed teams in the Warriors who were without Curry, Butler and Green, a Blazers team that is missing a ton of key players and a Hawks team that was without Young, Johnson and Porzingis.

The Suns are healthy and ready to go tonight.  There's a good chance they get Grayson Allen back for this one, but they have been playing well without him all season either way.  The Suns are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming on the road at Golden State by 3 and at Cleveland.  They beat the Warriors, the Lakers by 24 and the Kings by 27 in their three home games during this stretch.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +11.5

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss to the Suns on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat the Raptors by 21 as 8.5-point home dogs, the Grizzlies by 4 as 8-point home dogs, upset the Bucks as 10.5-point road dogs and crushed the Nets by 20 as 3-point home favorites.

A big reason for their resurgence is the return to health of one of the most underrated young superstars in the game in Alex Sarr (17.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.4 BPG).  They are missing Kyshawn George (15.0 PPG), but they have seven of their top eight scorers healthy and forming a nice chemistry right now.

This is a terrible spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 125-115 win in Miami last night.  The Heat had several players get injured during the game that aided the Timberwolves in the win.

Minnesota is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in its last five games overall with the other win aided by early injuries to Giddey and White of the Bulls as well.  They were upset by 16 by the Nets as 12-point favorites, failing to cover by 28.  They were upset by the Hawks by 24 as 5.5-point favorites, failing to cover by 29.5.  They aren't playing well right now, and they certainly should not be double-digit road favorites over the surging Wizards today.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Buffalo Bills -7.5

The Buffalo Bills were really pissed off when they lost to the Eagles at home last week.  They want to get that sour taste out of their mouths heading into the playoffs, and they still have AFC wild card seeing to play for.  That's evident by the fact that head coach Sean McDermott will play his starters.

Josh Allen and the entire Buffalo offense is healthy and ready to go with the exception of TE Dalton Kincaid, who is listed as questionable.  And there's no question that the Bills are going to hang a big number on what is one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now in the New York Jets.

The Jets are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with all four losses coming by 23 points or more.  They are clearly tanking and would be better off losing this game too, and they know it.  They have allowed a whopping 38.3 points per game in the four losses.  Even poor offenses like Miami (34 points) and New Orleans (29) made easy work of them.

The Jets have been a mess defensively since trading away Quentin Williams and Sauce Gardner.  They have since lost they next best defender in DE Will McDonald.  They have 12 defenders either on IR or out for this one.  Their starting CB's last week in Stiggers (out) and Stephens (questionable) could both miss.

The injury situation isn't much better on offense, either.  You know both Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor could have returned to action, instead they have both been out with 'injuries', so the Jets have gone with rookie 3rd-stringer Brady Cook.  That experiment has been a disaster with Cook averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt on 131 attempts with a 1-to-7 TD/INT ratio.

Of course, he doesn't have much help either with the two beast weapons in WR Garrett Wilson and TE Mason Taylor out.  Now the top two RB's are likely out with Breece Hall questionable and Isaiah Davis out for sure.  Hall reportedly suffered a knee injury after getting his 1,000 yards last week.  I'm guessing they are going to sit him and keep this tank going.

I know the Bills could pull starters especially if they get a big lead by halftime, but I don't think it matters.  This New York offense is incapable of coming back.  I also think the Bills have one of the best backup QB's in the league in Mitchell Trubisky, and he will keep the points coming if he gets in there.  

This will be similar to the 30-10 beat down by Buffalo in the first meeting when the Bills outgained the Jets 403 to 154, or by 249 yards total yards.  The Bills also won the final meeting last year 40-14 in Buffalo.  I really like the Bills -1.5 in 6-point teasers with the Bengals -1.5, the Rams -2.5 and the 49ers +8.5 at current lines as of this writing Friday night.  But I'm willing to lay the -7.5, too.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

No. 2 Ranked Football Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has SEVEN Top-10 Football Finishes (#1 2024, #3 2018, #3 2017, #4 2009, #5 2014, #5 2012, #10 2008) to his credit! Jack has put together a MASSIVE 2154-1824 Football Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $146,030! That includes a 1476-1218 Football Run over his last 2694 plays! He backed it up by finishing as No. 1 Ranked Football Capper in 2024-25!

No. 2 Ranked NFL Capper All-Time! Jack has SIX Top-10 NFL Finishes (#3 2009, #4 2023, #4 2017, #5 2024, #8 2019, #10 2008) to his credit! He is riding a 641-513 NFL Run that has his $1,000/game players winning $71,240! That includes a 368-283 NFL Run since November of 2021! He delivered an 81-56 NFL Record two seasons ago and finished as the No. 4 Ranked NFL Capper in 2023-24 as a result! He followed it up with an 87-66 NFL Record last season to finish as the No. 5 Ranked NFL Capper in 2024-25 as well!

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15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +3.5

The New Orleans Saints have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They continue to play hard here down the stretch and would love to go into next season on a 5-game winning streak.  I think we are getting tremendous value on the Saints +3.5 here.

The Saints are going more pass-happy trying to win Tyler Shough rookie of the year.  They are also going more pass-happy due to necessity down their top two running backs.  This pass-happy approach has led to some more high-scoring games here recently and this Saints offense is thriving under Shough.

The Saints have scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games.  Shough went 22-of-27 passing for 333 yards and 2 TD in leading the Saints to a 34-26 comeback win in Tennessee.  He threw 49 times for 308 yards and a TD in leading the Saints to 29 points against the Jets the previous week.

But what makes the Saints underrated is their defense, which ranks 9th in total defense at 305.5 yards per game and 7th at 5.1 yards per play.  Not many would guess the Saints have a Top 10 defense, but that's the case here.

The Saints ran revenge from a 24-10 home loss to the Falcons in a very fluky result.  the Saints missed two FG's and scored a total of 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They basically left 17 points off the board in that game.  I suspect they won't do that again in the rematch.

I think the Falcons played their 'Super Bowl' on Monday Night Football last week upsetting the short-handed Rams 27-24.  They will now be on a short week, and they are 'fat and happy' and not worried about the result of this Week 18 game.  I think the Saints want it more and are the healthier, more motivated team coming into this one.

London, Mooney and Pitts are all battling injuries and questionable to go for the Falcons this week.  The Falcons have a ton of concerning injuries defensively, especially in the secondary and on the defensive line.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR or out, plus top CB AJ Terrell is questionable.  NT Orhorhoro is questionable, and DE Dorlus is out with injuries suffered last week.

This is a very poor Atlanta defense that has allowed at least 24 points in eight of their last 10 games overall, and they should have allowed 24-plus in that first meeting with the Saints.  I think given all their injuries, the Saints will do whatever they want offensively in this one.

The Saints are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS with Shough as their starting QB.  New Orleans is 18-2 ATS in its last 20 games when going for road revenge, 16-1 ATS in its last 17 revenge games overall, and 9-1 ATS in the 2nd meeting with Atlanta the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Falcons OVER 43.5

The Saints are going more pass-happy trying to win Tyler Shough rookie of the year.  They are also going more pass-happy due to necessity down their top two running backs.  This pass-happy approach has led to some more high-scoring games here recently and this Saints offense is thriving under Shough.

The Saints have scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games.  Shough went 22-of-27 passing for 333 yards and 2 TD in leading the Saints to a 34-26 comeback win in Tennessee.  He threw 49 times for 308 yards and a TD in leading the Saints to 29 points against the Jets the previous week.

The Falcons are thriving on offense as well down the stretch with Kirk Cousins.  They put up 29 points and 476 total yards on the Bucs three weeks ago, 26 points and 342 yards on the Cardinals two weeks ago and 27 points and 345 yards on the Rams last week.  The Falcons are very healthy on offense as Cousins is clicking wtith London and Pitts, and Bijan Robinson is putting up monster numbers to close out the season.

But the Falcons have a ton of concerning injuries especially in the secondary and on the defensive line.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR or out, plus top CB AJ Terrell is questionable.  NT Orhorhoro is questionable, and DE Dorlus is out with injuries suffered last week.

The first meeting between these teams ended 24-10 in favor of the Falcons.  But the Saints missed two FG's and scored a total of 3 points on two trips to the Atlanta 1-yard line.  They basically left 17 points off the board in that game.  I suspect they won't do that again in the rematch.

This is a very low total for a game involving both teams teams right now, especially the Falcons.  The Falcons are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall, and they have combined for 44 or more points with their opponents in nine of their last 10 games overall.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this low 43.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Titans/Jaguars OVER 46.5

The Jaguars have one of the best offenses in the NFL since trading for WR Jakobi Myers.  They have scored at least 23 points in nine consecutive games and will hang a big number on this terrible, banged up Tennessee defense this week to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.

The Titans have also played in a lot of shootouts here recently due to that poor defense, plus the offense playing their best football of the season.  The Titans are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall going for 60 or more combined points three times.  They have scored at least 24 points in four consecutive games.

But their defense has been awful, allowing 29 points to Cleveland, 37 to San Francisco and 34 to a bad New Orleans offense last week.  The Saints threw for 320 yards on their terrible secondary to get the 34-26 comeback win.

While the Titans are fully healthy on offense which is a big reason for their improvement on that end, they are missing a ton of starters on defense.  That includes LB Arden Key, SS Amani Hooker, FS Xavier Woods and four more CB's in L'Jarius Sneed, Jaylyn Aarmour-Davis, Kevin Winston Jr. and Marcus Harris.

Trevor Lawrence is as hot as any QB in the NFL down the stretch and will have a field day against this Titans defense.  Lawrence has accounted for 16 TD and only 1 INT in his last five games.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, light winds and no precipitation in Jacksonville Sunday.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore -3

The Baltimore Ravens are the much better team than the Pittsburgh Steelers, period.  Even though they lost the first meeting 27-22 at home a few weeks ago, the Ravens were the better team in that game.  They will be out to prove it this week and win the AFC North, which would be the ultimate revenge.

The Ravens outgained the Steelers 420 to 318, or by 102 total yards, in that 27-22 loss on December 7th.  The refs took a TD off the board, and the Ravens were done in by the refs the entire game to be honest.  They kept driving deep into Pittsburgh territory but got nothing out of it.

Now the Ravens are fully healthy in the rematch and by far the much healthier team coming into this one.  They are coming off a 41-24 road win at Green Bay to keep their hopes alive thanks to 200-plus rushing yards and 4 TD from Derrick Henry.  You can bet they are going to ride Henry into the ground in this game.  They also have extra rest after playing last Saturday night.

Lamar Jackson is back healthy for this one and should be as healthy as he has been in a long time after sitting out last week.  The only starter they are missing on offense is WR Rashod Bateman, but he's replaceable.  They are fully healthy on defense with only CB Marlon Humphrey listed questionable.

The Steelers could not overcome the suspension to DK Metcalf (59 receptions, 850 yards, 6 TD) last week in an ugly 13-6 road loss at Cleveland that cost them clinching the division.  The offense was lost without him and WR Calvin Austin (28 receptions, 317 yards, 2 TD).  Then TE Darnell Washington (31 receptions, 364 yards, 1 TD) got hurt and is now out for the year.  They will get Austin back, but Metcalf is suspended for this game and Washington has been placed on IR.

The Steelers already had one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season even with these guys healthy.  They rank 26th in total offense at 300.4 yards per game.   This is now certainly a Bottom 5 offense in their current start without Metcalf and Washington.  The Steelers also rank 27th in the NFL in total defense at 356.8 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by 56.4 yards per game on the season.  They have been winning with smoke and mirrors all season, and their luck finally runs out this week.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -6.5

I released the Vikings -6.5 Sunday night shortly after the lines came out.  I anticipated the Packers would rest their starters in this game because they were locked into the 7th seed.  The Vikings are currently -10.5 as of this writing Saturday night as they have indeed decided to rest starters, so I have done my job here and will not hedge.

The Packers have two banged up QB's in Jordan Love and Malik Willis, so it was pretty easy to anticipate they would rest those two and start Clayton Tune, one of the worst 3rd-string QB's in the NFL let alone backups.  Tune has completed 15-of-27 passes with 3 INT and no touchdowns while averaging 2.9 yards per attempt and taking 8 sacks.  He has a 21.3 QB rating.

The Vikings got good news when JJ McCarthy was upgraded to starter this week.  That's big because he's a big upgrade over backup Max Brosmer.  The Vikings have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to get to 8-8 on the season.  I love backing teams who are going for a winning record in their final game of the season because it means so much to them to finish with a winning mark rather than a losing record.

The Vikings are really balling out on defense under coordinator Brian Flores, and it's a shame they have wasted what is a Top 5 defense in the NFL.  The Vikings have been playing elite defense for five straight weeks.  They held the Seahawks to 219 total yards, shut out the Commanders 31-0 while allowing 206 total yards, gave up just 143 total yards in a win over the Giants and stymied the Lions last week in a 23-10 win while holding them to 231 yards and forcing six turnovers.

What a tough ask for Clayton Tune to go up against this Brian Flores defense this week.  I would be surprised if the Vikings don't score on defense or special teams in this one, but we're not going to need it because McCarthy and company will do enough on offense to get us the cover.  The Packers couldn't care less about this game, while it's the 'Super Bowl' for the Vikings to finish with a winning record.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos -7

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser on the Bengals -1/Broncos -1

I anticipated the Chargers would rest their starters when I released the Broncos -7 Sunday night.  I've done my job and got us on a great line as it is now up to Denver -14.5 as of Saturday night.  I would not hedge back.

Jim Harbaugh announced early in the week that he would sit Justin Herbert.  For one of the most injury-ravaged rosters in the NFL, it was the only move for Harbaugh to make.  Wild card seeding doesn't matter much in the AFC and he knew it.

If some starters do play, they likely will only play for a series or two.  Other starters for sure sitting for the Chargers include RB Omarion Hampton, LT Salyer and LB Perryman plus a lot of backups.  The Chargers will start the embattled Trey Lance for this one.  This will be similar to Denver's 38-0 win over Kansas City in Week 18 last year when the Chiefs rested all of their starters.

Denver cannot afford a letdown.  The Broncos are playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, meaning home-field advantage and a first-round bye.  If they lose and the Patriots win, they would overtake them.  I expect the Broncos to be 'all in' this week knowing they have a bye on deck to rest up and get ready for the playoffs next week.

What a tough ask for Lance making this start against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Broncos rank 4th in scoring defense at 19.2 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 282.1 yards per game, 2nd at 4.9 yards per play and 1st in sacks at 4.0 per game.  The Broncos also have the benefit of extra rest heading into this one after beating the Chiefs last Thursday.

"This is a playoff game," Denver head coach Sean Payton said after Wednesday's practice. "I just finished telling our team, 'Now we have to focus on, what are the strengths of Trey (Lance)?'" Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals -7

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser on the Bengals -1/Broncos -1

The Cincinnati Bengals are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS since getting Joe Burrow back.  They upset the Ravens 32-14 and took the Bills to the wire in a 39-34 loss on the road.  After falling flat in the rematch with the Ravens at home, the Bengals have been unstoppable the last two weeks.

They beat Miami 45-21 as 3.5-point road favorites behind 407 total yards.  They followed it up with a 37-14 home win over Arizona as 7-point favorites last week with 429 yards.  They called off the dogs late in both games.  They won't be calling off the dogs against division rival Cleveland this week, and I fully expect them to finish strong.

The Browns played their 'Super Bowl' last week in upsetting the Steelers 13-6 at home.  That was a Steelers team missing several key starters including both starting WR's in DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin.  It's easy to see how they held the Steelers in check.  Their task gets much more difficult this week against the Bengals.

While the Bengals are very healthy with Joe Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Brown all ready to go on offense plus an ever-improving defense that is pretty healthy, the Browns have too many injuries to be competitive this week.  The Bengals are fully healthy on offense and only missing a DE starter on defense.

Rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. has been Cleveland's best weapon and scored their lone TD against the Steelers last week.  Once he departed with a groin injury, the Browns couldn't do anything on offense.  They are also without leading rusher RB Quinshon Judkins and TE David Njoku, plus four starters are out on the offensive line.  Shedeur Sanders will not be able to keep up with Burrow and company.

Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite LB Carson Schwesinger suffered a season-ending injury last week against the Steelers.  This defense hasn't been as good since losing DT Maliek Collins to IR.  They had the best run defense in the NFL with him in the lineup, and they've been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL without him since.

The Browns are 1-4 SU in their last five games despite playing four of those five games at home.  In their lone road game during this stretch, they lost 31-3 at Chicago while being held to just 192 total yards.  This game will play out similarly with the Browns getting burried by Burrow and this high-octane Cincinnati offense.  Cincinnati is 12-0 ATS in the 2nd meeting with Cleveland over the last 12 seasons.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.