Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -128 

The Chicago Cubs are in must-win mode here after losing four straight games overall and the first two games of this series with the Cardinals.  They will take Game 3 of this series Saturday at home. 

Quintana is 5-3 with a 3.81 ERA in 10 career starts against the Cardinals.  Dakota Hudson is 7-5 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in 14 road starts this season. 

The Cubs are 37-17 in their last 54 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Cubs are 9-0 in Quintana’s last nine starts against the NL Central.  The Cubs are 4-0 in Quintana’s last four home starts against the Cardinals.  Bet the Cubs Saturday. 

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Stanford +10.5 

When this line was released early in the offseason in May, Stanford was a 2.5-point favorite over Oregon.  Now the Cardinal are 10.5-point home underdogs to the Ducks this week.  That’s a 13-point adjustment based off the opener and I believe it’s the perfect ‘buy low’ opportunity on Stanford here. 

The betting public wants nothing to do with Stanford now after they went on the road and got blown out 20-45 by USC and 27-45 by UCF in back-to-back weeks.  But Stanford played without starting QB KJ Costello against USC, and he means everything to them.  And the loss in the heat down in Orlando against UCF isn’t really surprising when you consider UCF has only lost one game over the past three seasons combined. 

Now Stanford returns home where they were last seen beating Northwestern 17-7 in the opener.  They are a much different animal at home.  In fact, Stanford is a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdogs.  They have won eight of those games OUTRIGHT as an underdog.  You can bet David Shaw will have his team highly motivated off those two losses and with Oregon coming to town Saturday night. 

Conversely, it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Oregon.  They lost to Auburn 21-27 in their opener, but came back the next week and took out their frustrations on Nevada in a 77-6 home win.  Then last week they went through the motions and beat Montana 35-3.  So this will be their first true road game of the season and probably almost as tough of a test as that neutral site game was against Auburn. 

Oregon is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games off a win by more than 20 points.  David Shaw is a perfect 10-0 ATS after two or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of Stanford.  Stanford is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Oregon, outscoring them by a combined 84 points in those three meetings.  The Cardinal are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss.  Bet Stanford Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +39.5 

This is one of my favorite spots to fade Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are in a SEC sandwich game here.  They just won their SEC opener last week at South Carolina, and now they step out of conference for a game against Southern Miss before dipping back into SEC action next week against Ole Miss.  They won’t be fully invested in this game, which will make it tough to cover this massive 39.5-point spread. 

Alabama is fortunate not to be 0-3 ATS this season.  They only led Duke 14-3 at halftime as 33.5-point favorites but outscored them 28-0 in the second half to cover.  Then they failed to cover as 55.5-point favorites against New Mexico State and as 26-point favorites against South Carolina in their two games since.  This is another inflated number simply because it’s Alabama. 

There’s been several concerns about Alabama despite the easy schedule thus far.  Their rushing attack only produced 145 yards on 42 carries against Duke for 3.5 yards per carry.  They only had 76 rushing yards on 25 attempts against South Carolina for 3.0 yards per carry.  Defensively, the Crimson Tide have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in all three games this season.  They clearly aren’t as strong at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball as they have been in years’ past. 

I’d argue that Southern Miss could be the best team they’ve faced yet.  This is a Southern Miss team that returned 16 starters and is among the favorites to win Conference USA this season.  They’ve managed to go 2-1 to start despite playing a tough schedule that has featured road games at Mississippi State and Troy.  The 15-38 loss at Mississippi State was a misleading final because they were only outgained by 42 yards.  Then they outgained Troy by 98 yards in their 47-42 win last week. 

This is a Southern Miss offense that returned 10 starters and is hitting on all cylinders.  They are scoring 33.3 points per game and averaging 453 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play.  They are averaging 79 yards and 1.2 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average this season.  They can certainly move the ball and score on this Alabama defense that gave up 459 total yards to a bad South Carolina offense last week. 

This is an early start time at 12:00 AM EST and won’t be the same kind of home-field advantage for Alabama as it would be if it was a night game.  They are just looking to get in and get out with a victory.  Southern Miss is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 non-conference games.  The Golden Eagles are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 September games.  Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. C-USA opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.   

Plays against favorites of 31.5 or more points (Alabama) - outgaining opponents by 1.0 or more yards per play, after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in two straight games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (Southern Miss) - after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game, with eight or more offensive starters including QB returning, in the first month of the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1992.  Alabama is once again overvalued this week.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -2 

The California Golden Bears just got ranked after a surprising 3-0 start to the season.  They are feeling good about themselves now and getting pats on the back.  But I think this is the toughest test they’ve faced yet this season, and I expect them to fall flat on their faces. 

Cal now has to go out East for a 12:00 EST start time to face Ole Miss.  That means this will be a 9:00 AM body clock game for them coming from the West Coast.  They aren’t used to playing games this early, while Ole Miss is. 

This is an Ole Miss team that I expect to get better in a hurry as the season goes on.  They brought in two new coordinators in Rich Rodriquez and Mike MacIntyre.  Both are former head coaches in the Pac-12 who are familiar with California’s schemes.  That will be a huge advantage for the Rebels as they prepare for the Golden Bears. 

I think the Ole Miss players should now be accustomed to the new schemes that Rich Rod and MacIntyre have installed.  I’ve particularly been impressed with the improvement of the Ole Miss defense thus far under MacIntyre.  They are only giving up 20.3 points per game and 5.0 yards per play on the season.  They are holding opponents to 12 points and 63 yards per game less than their season averages.  It’s only a matter of time before this talented offense takes off under Rich Rod. 

Cal has had a problem scoring the last two years offensively.  The Golden Bears average just 23.3 points per game, 351 yards per game & 5.1 yards per play this season.  They don’t look improved at all on that side of the ball.  Cal will suffer its first loss of the season on the road against an up-and-coming SEC opponent in an early start time here Saturday. 

Cal is 21-45 ATS in its last 66 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  They only beat North Texas by 6 as 14-point home favorites last week.  They were outgained by both Washington and North Texas despite winning those games.  Their luck runs out this weekend.  Take Ole Miss Saturday. 

20* Auburn/Texas A&M CBS No-Brainer on Texas A&M -3.5 

I like the fact that Texas A&M is battle-tested already having lost 10-24 at Clemson as 16.5-point underdogs to cover the spread.  The Aggies were only outgained by 100 yards by the Tigers in that tough atmosphere.  They handled their business with blowout wins over Texas State and Lamar and covered the spread in both games.  Now sitting at 2-1 this season, this game is very important to them in their SEC opener. 

Adding to the motivation for the Aggies is the fact that they want revenge from a 24-28 road loss at Auburn last year.  Texas A&M led that game 24-7 in the 4th quarter, but gave up 21 unanswered points to lose a heartbreaker.  The Aggies feel like they gave that game away as they were clearly the better team and outgained Auburn by 145 yards in the loss. 

Now the Aggies are back home at Kyle Field with home of the best home-field advantages in the country.  Auburn freshman QB Bo Nix hasn’t seen an atmosphere as hostile as this one.  Nix is only completing 52.4% of his passes on 84 attempts this season, so accuracy is an issue.  I expect him to have his worst performance of the season thus far Saturday. 

No question the Aggies have the clear advantage at quarterback with Kellen Mond in this one.  Mond is completing 65% of his passes and has accounted for seven total touchdowns already.  Mond has certainly played a lot better at home than he has on the road in his career.  And his mobility will be a huge asset against an Auburn defensive line that is clearly their strength. 

The 12th man at Kyle Field has been a problem for opponents recently.  The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Texas A&M is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.  The Aggies are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 September games.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Texas A&M Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte +42 

The Clemson Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country and the defending national champs.  With that distinction comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to.  Clemson is fortunate not to be 0-3 ATS this season, but because they are 2-1 ATS they are being overvalued this week. 

Clemson beat Georgia Tech by 38 as 36.5-point favorites in the opener.  Georgia Tech failed going into the end zone at the 1-yard line which proved to be the difference in covering or not.  Clemson then failed to cover as 16.5-point favorites in a 14-point win over Texas A&M.  And last week Clemson never led by more than 28 as 28-point favorites against Syracuse, but got a breakaway 57-yard run with 48 seconds left to win by 35 when they were just trying to run out the clock. 

Now this is a terrible spot for Clemson.  It’s a ACC sandwich spot.  They were sky high last week in their ACC opener at Syracuse, and now they have an ACC game at North Carolina on deck next week.  They won’t have their full focus here against Charlotte in this non-conference game, which is going to make it extremely difficult for them to cover this massive 42-point spread. 

Not to mention, Charlotte looks pretty good.  They beat Gardner Webb 49-28 at home in their opener.  And they went on the road and only lost 41-56 at Appalachian State as 23.5-point dogs in Week 2.  That’s an Appalachian State team that has been one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country in recent years.  And last week they throttled UMass 52-17 as 20.5-point favorites. 

As you can see, Charlotte has an explosive offense that is capable of scoring more points than anyone has yet on this Clemson defense.  The 49ers are averaging 47.3 points and 522.3 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play this season.  They have shown tremendous balance with 297 rushing yards per game and 7.1 per carry, and 226 passing yards per game and 9.0 yards per attempt.  I believe the 49ers are one of the single-most underrated teams in all of college football based on what I’ve seen so far. 

Dabo Swinney is 1-8 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games as the coach of Clemson.  His teams are only winning by 8.4 points per game in this spot.  Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Clemson is 2-6 ATS in its last eight non-conference games. 

Plays against favorites of 31.5 or more points (Clemson) - outgaining opponents by 1.0 or more yards per play, after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in two consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road teams (Charlotte) - an excellent offensive team averaging 6.2 or more yards per play against a team with an excellent defense allowing 4.2 or fewer yards per play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Charlotte Saturday. 

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulsa -3 

There’s a reason a 1-2 Tulsa team is favored over a 3-0 Wyoming team Saturday.  And if not for the records, Tulsa would be a much bigger home favorite.  But I think we are getting a ton of value here because of the records on Tulsa, and that’s why I’ve made this my 25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR.  This game has blowout written all over it. 

Tulsa’s two losses are against Michigan State and Oklahoma State.  And they went on the road and beat San Jose State by 18 as 6-point favorites in their lone win.  They have faced a brutal schedule thus far, and I came away impressed by the losses to Michigan State and Oklahoma State as well. 

Tulsa actually led Oklahoma State 21-20 in the second half before eventually losing 21-40 last week.  They deserved to cover the 13.5-point spread, but Oklahoma State busted a long run in the final minutes when they basically could have kneeled on it.  It was much closer than that 19-point margin would indicate.  They also lost 7-28 at Michigan State to cover the 23.5-point spread, and they held the Spartans to just 303 total yards in the loss. 

Tulsa’s offense is better than it has shown due to the tough schedule, but the defense has really impressed me the most.  The Golden Hurricane are only allowing 28.0 points and 386 yards per game this season.  They are one of the most improved defensive teams in the country the last few years.  They are holding opponents to 61 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play less than their season averages this season. 

Wyoming is overvalued due to being 3-0.  Their win over Missouri in the opener at home was a fluke.  They were outgained by 148 yards and had over a 20-point swing in turnovers go in their favor.  They beat Texas State 23-14 on the road the next week, but were outgained by 151 yards in another fluky win.  And we’ve seen how bad Texas State has been against everyone else this year.  Then last week they only beat Idaho 21-16 at home as 27.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 16 yards by Idaho! 

Wyoming could easily be 0-3 instead of 3-0 when you consider they were outgained in all three games.  They are getting outgained by 105 yards per game on the season now.  Their offense is averaging 66 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play less than their opponents average allowing.  Their defense is giving up 95 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play more than their opponents normally average. 

Tulsa hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2016 and that’s a huge goal of theirs this year.  They realize this home game against Wyoming is a must-win for them if they want to go bowling.  I have no doubt they will be ‘all in’ Saturday to try and get a win.  Meanwhile, Wyoming is feeling fat and happy after that Missouri win in the opener, and they were fortunate not to get upset by both Texas State and Idaho in the two games since.  Tulsa is a much different animal than those two teams. 

The Golden Hurricane are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.  Tulsa is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games off an ATS loss.  Wyoming is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 September games.  The home team has won four of the five meetings between these teams in this all-time series.  Bet Tulsa Saturday.