Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Padres/Tigers OVER 8

I'll fade both of these starting pitchers tonight by backing the OVER in Game 1 between the San Diego Padres and Detroit Tigers.  The Tigers have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball scoring 4.6 runs per game this season.  The Padres are scoring 4.4 runs per game and capable of more.

Randy Vasquez went 4-7 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 20 starts for the Padres last season with only 62 K's in 98 innings.  He is due some regression this season after opening 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA in four starts.  He is getting away with putting a lot of runners on base thus far with 14 walks in 20 2/3 innings and only 8 K's.

Keider Montero went 6-6 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 16 starts and three relief appearances as a rookie for the Tigers last season with only 77 K's in 98 1/3 innings.  Montero allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings in his first and only start this season against the Brewers.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

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15* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Brewers/Giants OVER 7.5

The San Francisco Giants have quietly been one of the best OVER teams in baseball.  They have gone 15-7 OVER in all games while scoring 5.1 runs per game this season.  The Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 5.1 runs per game as well and have scored at least 5 runs in four of their last five games coming in.

Quinn Priester is due some major regression for the Brewers.  He has managed to allow only one earned run in 10 innings despite allowing 12 base runners in his two starts this season.  He got to face the Rockies and Tigers, and now he takes a big step up in class here against the Giants.  Priester is 7-9 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with only 77 K's in 109 2/3 innings in his career in the big leagues.

Robbie Ray has also allowed a ton of traffic on the bases this season.  He has allowed 9 earned runs, 4 homers and 30 base runners in 19 1/3 innings in four starts this season.  Temps will be in the 60's with light winds blowing out to center at Oracle Park in San Francisco tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Marlins OVER 8

One of the best-kept secrets in baseball is that the Miami Marlins are 64-23 OVER in all home games dating back to last season.  The Marlins are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all nine games.  The Marlins have scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 11 games coming in.

The Cincinnati Reds have gotten healthier and are showing what they are capable of offensively when that's the case.  The Reds have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last 10 games overall.  The Reds are scoring 7.7 runs per game in their last 10 games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in Reds last six games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all six games, and 11 or more in five of them.

Nick Lodolo will be making his first start of the season for the Reds and will be on a pitch count.  Max Meyer is getting too much respect from the books tonight as well.  Meyer allowed 6 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 innings of a 8-2 home loss to the Reds in his lone career start against them last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Clippers/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles ML -115

The Los Angeles Clippers controlled the entire Game 1 against the Denver Nuggets until the final few minutes of regulation and OT.  The Clippers showed they were the better team, and they have the better overall roster that will win out in Game 2 tonight.

Kawhi Leonard didn't play in any of the four regular season meetings with the Nuggets.  He had 22 points on 9-of-15 shooting in Game 1, and I fully expect him to be more aggressive in Game 2 to assure the Clippers win this game.  Zubac had 21 points and 13 rebounds and is one of the best possible defenders in the league for Nikola Jokic.  Harden had 32 points, and I love Powell.

The Nuggets attempted 11 more FT than the Clippers in Game 1 and that was a big difference.  The Clippers showed that they could take Jamal Murray out of the game with their ability to defend him.  They will gladly continue to leave Russell Westbrook open as he made just 5-of-17 attempts despite being open for almost all of them.  

The Clippers have a lot more depth than the Nuggets do as well as six players played almost all the minutes for the Nuggets in Game 1.  The Clippers have four guys who can contribute off the bench.  I have no doubt the Clippers are the better team and will get back into this series and eventually take control of it.  Bet the Clippers Monday.