Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Washington Wizards -1

The Washington Wizards (34-26) come into this game undervalued due to having lost six of their last seven.  Well, they were without Bradley Beal for most of that stretch, and he has since returned as the Wizards are now as close to full strength as they've been all season.

The Chicago Bulls (37-23) are far from full strength.  They lost starting point guard Derrick Rose (18.4 ppg) for at least a month with a knee injury, and Taj Gibson (10.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg) is out with an ankle injury.  Then, leading scorer Jimmy Butler (20.2 ppg) sprained a ligament in his left elbow against the Clippers last time out and will miss three to six weeks.

All of these injuries have led to some real poor play by the Bulls here of late.  They have lost two of their last three games, all at home.  They were blown out by both the Hornets (86-98) and the Clippers (86-96), while barely escaping the Timberwolves (96-89).

The Wizards put an end to their six-game losing streak with a 99-95 home win over Detroit last time out on Saturday.  Beal had eight points, six rebounds, five assists and three steals in 32 minutes in his first game back after missing the previous eight games. The Wizards will have now had two days' rest in between games to get ready for the short-handed Bulls.

Plays on any team (WASHINGTON) - after failing to cover the spread in five or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 73-38 (65.8%) ATS since 1996. 

The Bulls are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Bulls are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Washington is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 trips to Chicago.  Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

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Pick released on Mar 03 at 11:24 am

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois -1.5

The Northern Illinois Huskies (12-15) are way undervalued right now due to their losing record on the season.  Well, they have been playing their best basketball of the season coming into this one, and I look for that to continue tonight against Western Michigan (17-11).

The Huskies will be highly motivated for their seniors as this is Senior Night.  Well, three of the Huskies' top six scorers are seniors, so it will mean more to this team than most.  Anthony Johnson (10.8 ppg), Jordan Threloff (8.2 ppg) and Aaron Armstead (7.3 ppg) are all seniors.

Northern Illinois will also be motivated to avenge not only a narrow 65-69 road loss to Western Michigan on February 14th, but also several close losses in a row in this series.  The Huskies have lost 10 in a row to the Broncos, but the last three have all come by 5 points or less.  I look for them to put an end to this skid tonight.

Northern Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  It beat Ball State 75-63 as 5-point home favorites, only lost to WMU by 4 as 6-point road dogs, lost to CMU by 2 as 10.5-point road dogs, lost to EMU by 8 as 2-point home favorites, beat Toledo by 2 as 11-point road dogs, and topped CMU by 18 as 4.5-point home dogs in its last six games overall.  Toledo and CMU are two of the best teams in the MAC, so beating both of them is no small feat.

The Huskies are 8-1 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  NIU is 13-2 ATS after covering 3 of its last 4 against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 19-9 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons.  NIU is 19-6-4 ATS in its last 29 MAC games.  Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday.

Pick released on Mar 03 at 11:22 am

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Hawks UNDER 199.5

The Houston Rockets are going to be lost offensively tonight.  They were already without second-leading scorer Dwight Howard (16.1 ppg), and now they'll be without MVP candidate James Harden (27.1 ppg, 6.9 apg), who has been suspended for one game for kicking Lebron James last time out.

This total has been inflated because the Rockets have played four straight games that saw 200 or more combined points.  Well, that game against Cleveland on Sunday was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation before going into OT.  There's no question the Rockets will suffer offensively without Harden tonight.

Atlanta has really been playing in some low-scoring games here of late.  It has gone 6-0 to the UNDER in its last six games overall with combined scores of 177, 185, 183, 191, 183 and 184 points.  That's an average of 183.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total.

One of the biggest reasons for Atlanta's improvement this season has been its defense.  It ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.8 points per 100 possessions.  Well, Houston actually ranks ahead of the Hawks at 3rd in defensive efficiency, yielding 99.7 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta is giving up just 91.0 points per game in its last six.

The Hawks and Rockets did combined for 201 points in their first meeting on December 20th, but Harden and Howard both played in that game.  They have combined for 163 and 197 points in their two previous meetings.  So, in their last three meetings, they're averaging a combined 187.0 points per game.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (ATLANTA) - off a road win against a division rival against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less are 70-28 (71.4%) since 1996.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Rockets last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Hawks last five games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Hawks last six games overall.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

Pick released on Mar 03 at 10:50 am

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Kings/Knicks UNDER 200

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Sacramento Kings and New York Knicks.  This total has been inflated due to both teams frequently going over the total in recent games.  The value is clearly with the under in this one as a result.

The Kings have gone over the total in five of their last six.  Well, the Kings are now without two of their top three scorers in DeMarcus Cousins (23.7 ppg) and Darren Collison (16.1 ppg).  They won't be nearly as effective offensively without these guys.

New York has gone 3-0 to the over in its last three games overall.  Well, it is also without two starters in leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (24.2 ppg) and top assist man Jose Calderon (9.1 ppg, 4.7 apg).  The Knicks' roster is an embarrassment without these two.

The Kings and Knicks have played in some very low-scoring games in New York in recent meetings.  Not counting overtime, the Kings and Knicks have combined for 186, 201, 185 and 176 points in their last four meetings in New York.  That's an average of 187.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.

New York ranks 28th in the league in offensive efficiency at 98.8 points per 100 possessions.  Sacramento is 20th at 101.3 points per 100 possessions.  New York also ranks 28th in the NBA in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  It will control the tempo playing at home, so look for this one to be played at a snail's pace.

The Knicks are 20-8 to the UNDER when playing with two days' rest over the last three seasons.  The Knicks are 21-8 to the UNDER off three or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last four vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 16-7 in Knicks last 23 home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

Pick released on Mar 03 at 10:50 am