Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

Jack’s Free Pick Monday: Utah Jazz -5 

After a brutal road-heavy schedule early that had the Jazz actually sitting below .500 until the midway point in the season, they have finally had the schedule lighten up, and they’ve taken advantage.  Indeed, the Jazz are 6-0 in their last six games overall with all six wins coming by 6 points or more and by an average of 13.5 points per game. 

The Blazers have been great at home this season, but they are just 8-12 SU & 8-12 ATS on the highway.  They are giving up 113.9 points per game on the road this season.  Compare that to Utah, which allows just 104.1 points per game at home, and it’s easy to see why I’m on the Jazz tonight. 

The Jazz have had the Blazers’ number in recent meetings as well.  They have gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  They won in blowout fashion in both meetings this season, winning by 30 in Portland and by 21 at home.  They clearly have Portland figured out.  The home team is also 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Utah. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - off a home win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams are 70-21 (76.9%) ATS over the last five years.  Bet the Jazz Monday.

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15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Hawks PK 

It’s safe to say the Atlanta Hawks aren’t tanking.  They have some impressive results over the last few weeks that show they can play with anyone.  And I certainly think they can beat the Magic at home tonight, especially since the Hawks are the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

The Hawks beat the Heat by 24 as 6.5-point home dogs on January 6th.  They followed that up with only a 3-point road loss at Toronto as 13.5-point dogs.  They upset Philadelphia as 10.5-point road dogs on January 11th.  They upset Oklahoma City as 10.5-point home dogs on January 15th.  And last time out they led the Celtics the entire way until the 4th quarter and lost by 8. 

The Magic are starting to show some fatigue.  The will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and their 9th game in 16 days.  They have lost three straight coming in and are just 5-12 SU & 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Orlando is 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games with six of those losses coming by 10 points or more.  Roll with the Hawks Monday. 

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Western Kentucky -4.5 

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are a lot better than their 9-9 record would suggest.  Each of their last six losses have come by 6 points or less, including the last three by a combined five points. 

One of those losses was a one-point defeat at Marshall, 69-70.  That game was played on January 12th, so the Hilltoppers don’t have to wait long for their shot at revenge.  They’ll be highly motivated for a victory here, especially since they also lost by a single point 66-67 to Marshall in the C-USA Tournament last year. 

Marshall is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in true road games this season, and three of those wins have come by a combined five points, so they were very close to being 1-8 on the road this year.  Western Kentucky is 5-2 at home with wins over the likes of St. Mary’s and Wisconsin.  They also have road wins over West Virginia and Arkansas this season.  Those four wins alone show you that this is a very good team. 

Marshall is 0-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  The Thundering Herd are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games off five or more consecutive wins.  Western Kentucky is 6-0 ATS off a home ATS loss where they won straight up as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Bet Western Kentucky Monday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +11.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are highly motivated for a victory here Monday night.  They have lost three straight coming in and will be excited to play the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference in the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Mavericks will be rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 3rd game in 8 days. 

The Bucks are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to going 11-2 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  But now they are being asked to lay double-digits consistently, and betting on double-digit favorites in the NBA is a quick way to lose a lot of money. 

The Mavericks have owned the Bucks, going 9-2 SU & 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Their two losses came by a combined 8 points with one by 7 and one by a single point.  Asking the Bucks to have to win this game by 12 or more points to cover is simply asking too much. 

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games, in non-conference games are 40-10 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points in this situation have gone 29-6 ATS over the last five years as well.  Take the Mavericks Monday.