Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Texas A&M/FSU OVER 171.5

Texas A&M is a dead nuts OVER team playing 'Bucky Ball' under first-year head coach Bucky McMillan.  The Aggies rank 33rd in the country adjusted tempo and 13th in average length of offensive possession at 14.6 seconds.  The Aggies are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 167 points with Montana, 177 with Manhattan and 204 with Mississippi Valley State.

Florida State also profiles as an OVER team with how fast they play.  The Seminoles rank 7th in the country adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession at 13.8 seconds.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game and more opportunities for points.  This total of 171.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU/Mississippi State OVER 162.5

SMU Is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mustangs rank 41st in the country in adjusted tempo and 14th in average length of offensive possession at 14.6 seconds.  They are loaded with offensive talent scoring at least 87 points in six of their seven games this season, and 100 or more three times already.

Mississippi State also likes to play fast ranking in the top 1/3 in the country at 118th in adjusted tempo and 78th in average length of offensive possession at 16 seconds.  In their two games against the two best teams they have played like SMU, they lost 96-80 to Iowa State for 176 combined points and lost 98-77 to Kansas State for 175 combined points.  

SMU profiles similarly to K-State with an elite offense and suspect defense.  Miss State really has a suspect defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Jazz OVER 242

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.  The Kings also profile as an OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  This figures to be one of the biggest shootouts of the season tonight especially with both teams playing relaxed basketball after already being eliminated from advancing in the NBA Cup.

The Jazz are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 251 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The Jazz are 7-2 OVER in their nine home games scoring 128.4 points per game and allowing 128.6 points per game, combining to average 257 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Hawks OVER 236.5

This is a must-win game for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Raptors have clinched Group A in the NBA Cup with a 4-0 record.  The Cavaliers' only chance to advance is on point differential, so they not only need to win but have massive incentive to win by margin.  They have a +33 point differential trailing Miami (+49), which is 3-1 and locked into that point differential.  At the very least they need to win this game by 16-plus points to catch Miami.

The Atlanta Hawks have already been eliminated from advancing with a 1-2 record.  I question their motivation as a result.  They are coming off a 132-113 road loss to Washington as 11-point favorites in their last NBA Cup game to get eliminated.  I question how much they'll be motivated to play defense tonight knowing they are already eliminated.  Meanwhile, the Cavs should be playing as fast as possible to win by as much as possible.  That will benefit the OVER tonight.  

The Hawks are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall.  The Cavs rank 7th in pace while the Hawks rank 10th, so these are two Top 10 teams in pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5

This is a must-win game for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Raptors have clinched Group A in the NBA Cup with a 4-0 record.  The Cavaliers' only chance to advance is on point differential, so they not only need to win but have massive incentive to win by margin.  They have a +33 point differential trailing Miami (+49), which is 3-1 and locked into that point differential.  At the very least they need to win this game by 16-plus points to catch Miami.

The Atlanta Hawks have already been eliminated from advancing with a 1-2 record.  I question their motivation as a result.  They are coming off a 132-113 road loss to Washington as 11-point favorites in their last NBA Cup game to get eliminated.  They weren't impressive the game prior either with a 3-point win over the Hornets as 8-point home favorites.  I'll gladly back the more motivated team looking for as big of a blowout as possible.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -8.5

The New York Knicks (2-1) are max motivated tonight.  They need to win to capture Group C, otherwise they will be eliminated.  They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Miami Heat (3-1).

The Milwaukee Bucks (2-1) lose out on the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Heat so their only chance of advancing is on point differential.  But they know they are essentially eliminated unless they win this game by 50, which isn't happening.  They are only +13 in point differential and trailing everyone above them by anywhere from 11 to 48 points.  They also need both Cleveland and Detroit to lose tonight, and both are favored.

Knowing their fate is pretty much already sealed, I don't expect the Bucks to bring back Giannis tonight.  He was questionable in their last NBA Cup game and didn't play, losing at Miami to lose out on the tiebreaker with the Heat now.  That was basically their 'last stand' in this tournament, and they won't be all that motivated knowing they won it all last year.

The Knicks are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bucks.  Bet the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons -3

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They finally had their 13-game winning streak come to an end with a 117-114 loss in Boston.  But it will take zero effort for them to refocus here considering this is a must-win for them if they want to advance in the NBA Cup.

It's not a must-win game for Orlando, although they'd rather win this game than rely on point differential to advance.  But the Magic are in great position from a point differential perspective at +61 during their 3-0 start.  So they can still lose this game and advance on point differential as as none of the contenders are within 28 points of them.  In the back of their minds they know they are advancing either way.

The Pistons are 7-1 at home this season while the Magic are just 4-5 on the road.  The Pistons beat the Magic 135-116 in their last home meeting on October 29th earlier this season.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Arizona State +2

The Arizona State Sun Devils have been impressive getting to 8-3 this season despite battling through key injuries, most notably to QB Sam Leavitt and WR Jordan Tyson.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS since losing Leavitt to a season-ending injury and have been impressive in all three games offensively.

They went on the road and beat Iowa State 24-19 as 7.5-point dogs while racking up 467 total yards and outgaining the Cyclones by 131 yards.  They came back from their bye week and were a little rusty in a 25-23 home win over a feisty West Virginia team.  But they were hitting on all cylinders again last week in a 42-17 road win at Colorado, racking up 580 total yards while outgaining the Buffaloes by 280 yards in a dominant effort.

Tyson (59 receptions, 689 yards, 8 TD) made his return last week from a 3-game absence and had 2 receptions for 61 yards against Colorado.  The Sun Devils are running wild right now with backup QB Jeff Simms.  They have rushed for an average of 256 yards per game in their last three games.  Simms has rushed for 409 yards and two scores while averaging 4.9 per carry.  Raleek Brown has rushed for 1,078 yards on 6.2 per carry.

The one constant for this Arizona State team has been a dominant defense.  The Sun Devils are only allowing 23.0 points per game and 5.1 yards per play, holding opponents to 8.4 points per game and 0.8 yards per play below their season averages.  They have done it against a much tougher schedule having to face the two best teams in the Big 12 in Utah and Texas Tech.  

The Sun Devils are the only team to beat Texas Tech winning 26-22 at home where they are 5-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming to Houston in the game where Leavitt got injured, and their first game without Tyson.  There was nothing fluky about that win over the Red Raiders as they outgained them 394 to 276, or by 118 total yards.  It was their most impressive defensive effort of the season.

Arizona has benefited from a much softer schedule to get to 8-3 this season.  The Wildcats have avoided the two best teams in the Big 12 in Utah and Texas Tech.  They lost to the best Big 12 team they faced in BYU at home.  They have benefited from a home-heavy schedule with seven home games compared to just four road games.  They are 2-2 on the road losing at Iowa State by 23 and at Houston.  They are getting too much respect from their current 4-game winning streak coming into this game.

Teams have been able to run on this Arizona defense as BYU had 258 rushing yards, Houston had 232, Cincinnati had 190, Kansas had 170 and Baylor had 181.  The Wildcats have allowed an average of 193.3 rushing yards per game in their last six games.  The Sun Devils should run wild on them here, and that favorable matchup will be the biggest difference in the game.

Another matchup that favors the Sun Devils is they have one of the best pass defenses in the country, and Arizona is a pass-happy offense with QB Noah Fifita.  Arizona State has allowed 201 or fewer passing yards in five of its last six games.  ASU beat Arizona 49-7 last year while holding Fifita to 14-of-29 passing for 126 yards.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Arizona State Friday.

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20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah State +3.5

Utah State has one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  The Aggies are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 22.8 points per game in those five wins.  They will relish this opportunity to knock off Boise State and eliminate them from MWC title contention.

Boise State is without star QB Maddux Madsen and should not be favored by 3.5 points on the road at Utah State without him.  In their first road game without him, they lost 17-7 at San Diego State with 268 total yards.  In the game they lost him, they lost 30-7 at home to Fresno State and finished with 193 total yards.  Their only win since losing Madsen came against Colorado State, which has quit on the season at 2-9 with a fired head coach and in the midst of a 5-game losing streak with four of those losses coming by double-digits.

It's Senior Day for senior QB Bryson Barnes, one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  Barnes is completing 62.2% of his passes for 2,502 yards with an 18-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 644 yards and 8 TD.  He leads a potent Utah State offense that is putting up 41.2 points per game, 490 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play at home this season.  Bet Utah State Friday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas -19.5

North Texas (10-1, 6-1 AAC) is in a 3-way tie for 1st place in the AAC.  Only two teams will make it, so the Mean Green are max motivated heading into this game with Temple.  They are not only motivated to win, but to do so with style since the playoff committee is keeping Tulane ranked ahead of them.  And the fact that they are going for style points couldn't have been more obvious than seeing what they've done in recent weeks.

Indeed, North Texas is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Mean Green beat UTSA 55-17 as 4-point home favorites, Charlotte 54-20 as 26-point road favorites, Navy 31-17 as 6.5-point home favorites, UAB 53-24 as 17.5-point road favorites and Rice 56-24 as 18-point road favorites.  They have scored 53 or more points in four of their last five games, which is a clear indication they have been trying to keep scoring late into games and have executed it to perfection.  They are taking no prisoners.

Temple has lost three straight to fall to 5-6 this season.  The five wins have not been impressive as they have come against the five worst teams they have faced in UMass (0-12), FCS Howard, UTSA (6-5), Charlotte (1-10) and Tulsa (4-7).  During their 3-game losing streak they were blown out by 31 at home by TCU and blown out at home by 24 by Tulane.  Now they hit the road here to face a max motivated North Texas team, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

Temple just doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep up with North Texas.  The Owls managed just 14 points and 233 total yards against ECU and 13 points and 204 total yards against Tulane.  North Texas ranks 1st in scoring offense at 45.3 points per game and 1st in total offense at 488.6 yards per game in the entire country.  This is going to be another blowout in the Mean Green's favor.  Bet North Texas Friday.

20* CFB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Mexico +1.5

New Mexico is 8-3 this season including a perfect 5-0 at home.  The Lobos are 5-2 in conference play and fighting to make the MWC Championship Game.  A win over San Diego State here would go a long way in getting them to the title game as they trail the Aztecs by one game and are in a three-way tie for 2nd place.

New Mexico has come up clutch here down the stretch to put itself in this position.  The Lobos have won four consecutive games including a 33-14 home win over Utah State and a 40-35 upset road win against UNLV, a team they are tied with in 2nd place.  The Lobos will be fresh as they had a bye three weeks ago before beating both Colorado State and Air Force.

San Diego State will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and is a tired, banged up team.  In their last road game, they lost 38-6 at Hawaii.  They also lost by 23 at Washington State and have been much worse on the road than they have been at home.

This San Diego State offense is broken.  In their last three games against Hawaii, Boise State and San Jose State the Aztecs have averaged just 16.0 points per game and 269.7 yards per game.  That includes just 76.7 passing yards per game during this stretch.  They lost their best playmaker in WR Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) to injury against Boise State two games ago and haven't had any semblance of a passing game since.

The Aztecs need to be able to run the ball to be successful, making this a terrible matchup for their offense.  New Mexico's biggest strength is a run defense that allows just 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, ranking 23rd and 18th in the country in those departments, respectively.  They held Air Force's triple-option attack to just 110 rushing yards on 48 carries last week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

15* CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on San Diego State/New Mexico UNDER 42

This game will be played close to the vest with what's at stake.  A trip to the Mountain West title game is on the line for both San Diego State and New Mexico.  I think both teams will be playing tight offensively, and this will turn into a defensive battle between two of the best defenses in the MWC.  

SDSU ranks 4th in scoring defense at 12.5 points per game, 8th in total defense at 262.4 yards per game and 3rd at 4.1 yards per play.  The Aztecs are led by a defense that is legitimately one of the best in the country.  New Mexico is 54th at 25.0 points per game, 51st at 367.6 yards per game and 55th at 5.6 yards per play with a stop unit that has gotten stronger as the season has gone on.  They have allowed 22 points or fewer in four of their five games during their current 5-game winning streak.

This San Diego State offense is broken.  In their last three games against Hawaii, Boise State and San Jose State the Aztecs have averaged just 16.0 points per game and 269.7 yards per game.  That includes just 76.7 passing yards per game during this stretch.  They lost their best playmaker in WR Jordan Napier (48 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TD) to injury against Boise State two games ago and haven't had any semblance of a passing game since.

The Aztecs need to be able to run the ball to be successful, making this a terrible matchup for their offense.  New Mexico's biggest strength is a run defense that allows just 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, ranking 23rd and 18th in the country in those departments, respectively.  They held Air Force's triple-option attack to just 110 rushing yards on 48 carries last week.

This New Mexico offense is not lighting up the scoreboard.  They were held to 20 points by Colorado State and 20 by Air Force in their last two games, which are two of the worst defenses in the Mountain West.  The Lobos also aren't in a hurry ranking 103rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 27.8 seconds.

San Diego State is a dead nuts UNDER team going 8-3 UNDER in its 11 games this season.  The Aztecs and their opponents have combined for 42 or fewer points in seven of their 11 games this season, including 31 or fewer in four of their last five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State Egg Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 63.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Ole Miss and Mississippi State play every year in the Egg Bowl, and every year it's more low-scoring than projected.  Both teams are coming off a bye week so they've had two full weeks to prepare for this game.  That favors defense over offense when both teams are as familiar with one another as they are coming into this Egg Bowl.

The UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings in the Egg Bowl finishing with 59 or fewer combined points in all eight meetings.  The last seven have all seen 55 or fewer combined points, and the last three in particular have been very low-scoring with 40 combined points in 2024, 24 in 2023 and 46 in 2022.  These are all with Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss and his high-octane offenses.

I also like the fact that this game will be played close to the vest with what's at stake for both teams.  Ole Miss is trying to qualify for the 12-team playoff, and a win will get them in.  Mississippi State is 5-6 this season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  I think both teams will be playing tight, which also favors the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Bears/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Chicago Bears are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 44 points in 11 of their 13 games this season.  This total of 44 is very low for a game involving the Bears right now.

The Bears rank 8th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game, 6th in total offense at 369.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Bears rank 27th in scoring defense at 26.5 points per game, 27th in total defense at 362.8 yards per game and 30th at 6.3 yards per play.  Chicago games are averaging 52.8 combined points per game this season.

A lot has been made of the struggles of this Philadelphia offense, but this is the perfect defense for them to get on track against and hang a big number today.  The injuries are ugly for this Chicago defense.  They will be without all three starting LB's in Hyppolie II, Edwards and Sewell.  They will be without two more starters in DE Robinson and CB Stevenson.  The Eagles should get whatever they want on the ground against Chicago.

I trust the Bears to do enough offensively in this one to get us this OVER.  They will likely be playing fast in the 2H in a trailing game state and it will lead to either quick scores or quick turnovers from Caleb Williams.  The Cowboys racked up 473 total yards on the Eagles last week.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.