Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Tampa Bay Rays -118

I love the spot for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight.  They had yesterday off while the Minnesota Twins were completing a 3-game series in New York against the Mets.  All three of those games were decided by 2 runs or less, and each of their last six games have been decided by 3 runs or fewer so their suspect bullpen has had heavy usage.

The Rays have been a potent offensive team this season scoring 4.8 runs per game while scoring at least 5 runs in nine of their last 12 games overall.  They get to face their former teammate in Taj Bradley for the first time and will clearly have the perfect scouting report on him.  Look for this to be the game Bradley regresses in a major way.

Drew Rasmussen is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He has gone 1-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.61 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 19 2/3 innings.  Rasmussen has held the Twins to one earned run and 5 base runners in 8 innings in his last two starts against them.  Bet the Rays Friday.

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15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Yankees/Astros OVER 9

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 18-8 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per game.  The Astros are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 11 or more combined runs in five of those six games against the light-hitting Cardinals and Guardians.

Now they must face the offensive juggernaut in the New York Yankees who are scoring 4.9 runs per game this season.  And the Yankees are clearly capable of coming close to covering this total on their own against Lance McCullers and this putrid Houston bullpen that has posted a 5.75 ERA on the season.

McCullers is 1-1 with a 6.20 ERA in four starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers and 18 base runners in 13 innings in his last two starts against the Yankees.

The OVER is 3-1 in Will Warren's last four starts with 17, 21 and 10 combined runs in the three OVERS.  He has allowed 3 homers in his last four starts and he is due some regression here against one of the best lineups he has seen this season.  Warren allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings of a 8-7 loss to the Astros in his last start against them.  

The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings with 8 or more combined runs in all six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Cubs/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 9

The Cubs are really raking at the plate right now during their 10-1 run in their last 11 games.  They have scored 7 runs or more in eight of those 11 games and are capable of covering this total on their own.

While the Cubs are scoring 5.6 runs per game this season, the Dodgers also have one of the best lineups in baseball scoring 5.5 runs per game this season.  And both of these potent lineups should have their way with these two suspect starting pitchers tonight.

Jameson Taillon is 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA in four starts this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 6 homers in 22 2/3 innings.  Taillon is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in four career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 12 earned runs and 32 base runners in 19 innings.  He's backed by a poor, tired Chicago bullpen that will be playing for an 8th consecutive day.

The Cubs should stay hot against Emmet Sheehan, who is 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in four starts for the Dodgers this season.  Sheehan has allowed 13 earned runs, 4 homers and 28 base runners in 20 innings.  The Dodgers also have a tired bullpen playing for an 8th consecutive day.  

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Phillies/Braves OVER 9

The Braves are scoring 5.8 runs per game with one of the best lineups in baseball.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  The Braves are 3-0-1 OVER in their last four games with 9, 14, 15 and 13 combined runs.

The Phillies are 3-0 OVER in their last three games going for 15, 9 and 11 combined runs with the Cubs.  They are finally getting their bats going and are too talented offensively to stay down for long.  But their staff has been terrible this season as they allow 5.6 runs per game.

The Braves should hang a big number on Andrew Painter, who is 1-1 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.36 WHIP allowing 9 earned runs in 18 11/3 innings this season.  Painter just faced the Braves in his last start and allowed 3 earned runs in 4 innings on April 19th.  The advantage goes to Atlanta's hitters getting to see him again for the 2nd time in less than a week.

Grant Holmes is 1-1 with a 3.42 ERA in five starts for the Braves this season allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 26 1/3 innings.  Holmes allowed 2 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings opposite Painter in that start on April 19th.  Getting to face him again for the 2nd time in less than a week is a big advantage to Philadelphia hitters as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nationals/White Sox OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 18-6-2 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in 21 of those 26 games.  This total of 9 is actually too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

The Nationals have one of the best lineups in baseball hitting .253 and scoring 5.5 runs per game.  But they have one of the worst staffs and bullpens in baseball.  Their bullpen has a 5.37 ERA this season.  It's a big reason Washington is allowing 6.2 runs per game.

The White Sox are a dead nuts OVER team going 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 11 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 games.  That includes 16 and 18 combined runs with the Diamondbacks in two of their last three games.  This total is actually pretty short for a game involving the White Sox right now too.

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket with temps in the 60's and 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Chicago.  Miles Mikolas will get rocked like he always does.  He is 0-3 with a 9.15 ERA and 1.98 WHIP this season allowing 20 earned runs and 6 homers in 19 2/3 innings.  Erick Fedde is 0-3 with a 3.92 ERA, allowing 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 20 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Lakers/Rockets Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 206.5

These are two dead nuts UNDER teams in their current state.  Both teams play at a snail's pace and both rely on defense right now with suspect offense.  That's especially the case for the Lakers without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

The Lakers were able to pull off the 107-98 upset for 205 combined points in Game 1.  They got a nice break with Kevin Durant scratched before the game with a knee injury suffered on Wednesday in practice last week.

The Lakers shot a ridiculous 60.6% from the field and 52.6% from 3-point range in Game 1.  That clearly was not going to happen again in Game 2.  The Lakers won 101-94 for 195 combined points in yet another defensive battle despite the fact that Kevin Durant returned.  Now Durant has been downgraded to questionable for Game 3 with that same knee injury, and he clearly won't be 100% if he plays.

The Rockets have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA all season and will shut down the Lakers in Game 3 at home.  The Lakers have been dominant defensively since losing Reaves and Doncic.  They have held their last five opponents to just 95 points per game and will limit the Rockets again.  Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.