Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat -1 

The Miami Heat had yesterday off and now host the Lakers.  They should be more than 1-point favorites over the Lakers in this matchup considering the Lakers are on the 2nd of a back-to-back. 

The Lakers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 15-6 SU in their last 21 home meetings with the Lakers.  Bet the Heat Sunday. 

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Carolina Panthers -3.5 

The Carolina Panthers will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday against the Detroit Lions.  They were embarrassed on National TV on Thursday last week in a 21-52 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are playing as well as any team in the NFL right now.  They’ll be looking to show the kind of team they really are this week as that effort was an aberration based on the way the Panthers had played up to that point previously. 

The Panthers are still 6-3 on the season and right in the thick of the playoff race.  They have everything to play for the rest of the way, and I also like the fact that they have extra time to prepare for the Lions this week.  That’s because they did play last Thursday, giving them three more days off than the Lions.  That’s a hidden advantage here that I don’t think is being factored into the line. 

I went 4-1 in the NFL last week, but my lone loss was on the Lions +7 over the Bears.  I thought they would play with a sense of urgency in a must-win game, but they did not, and they were terrible the entire game.  They were thoroughly outplayed by the Bears.  Now, at 3-6 on the season and three games behind the Bears in the NFC North, I could see the Lions pack it in.  They realize they have nothing to play for the rest of the way. 

I should have seen it coming with the trade of Golden Tate to the Eagles.  Tate was Matthew Stafford’s security blanket, and without him he has looked lost.  The Lions have lost three in a row by 14 at home to the Seahawks, by 15 at the Vikings and by 12 at the Bears.  If that’s not the sign of a team struggling, then I don’t know what is. 

Tate was so important to Stafford because he could get the ball out quickly to him.  That helped mask the woeful offensive line in Detroit that simply hasn’t given Stafford any time to throw this season, especially in recent weeks.  As a result, this Detroit offense has been held to just 15.0 points per game the last three weeks.  It won’t get any easier against a very good Carolina defense this week. 

The Panthers look as good as they have offensively maybe ever this season, averaging 26.8 points per game.  And their defense is holding opponents to 17 yards per game below their season averages despite facing a brutal schedule of opposing offenses.  This Detroit offense will be one of the worst units the Panthers have faced all season, and they should have their way with them. 

Christian McCaffrey should have a huge game rushing against a Detroit defense that ranks 28th against the run, giving up 132.7 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  The Lions also rank 31st in passing yards per attempt (8.9) allowed this season.  Even Mitchell Trubisky torched them for 348 yards last week through the air.  They were without their top corner in Darius Slay in that game, and he could miss this game as well with a knee injury. 

Detroit is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team that commits one or fewer turnovers per game in the second half of the season.  Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS off a blowout road loss by 14 points or more as the coach of Carolina.  Rivera is 12-2 ATS after allowing 25 or more points in two consecutive games as the coach of the Panthers.  Look for an inspired, bounce-back effort from Carolina this week.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

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15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -2 

The Colts are such a better team with Andrew Luck at quarterback that it’s like night and day.  They have been competitive this season and come in playing their best football of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, outscoring their last three opponents by a combined 49 points.  Yet they continue to get no respect as only 2-point home favorites against the Tennessee Titans this week. 

The Titans looked awful through their first seven games this year.  They opened 3-4 with all three of their wins coming by exactly 3 points.  But then they had their bye week and have delivered back-to-back eye-opening performances, winning 28-14 at Dallas and 34-10 at home against New England.  No question those two results were impressive, but it also has the Titans now overvalued. 

And I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Titans.  We’ve seen several teams over the years have a letdown after beating the Patriots, and I expect that to be the case again this week.  Mike Vraebel and company put a lot of effort into beating their former team last week, including Dion Lewis, who was not shy with his comments after the game about how much the team wanted to beat the Patriots.  It’s only human nature for them to have a letdown the next week. 

Even after those two performances, the Titans are still scoring just 18.7 points per game on the season while ranking 30th in total offense at 299.0 yards per game.  This offense still isn’t any good, and it doesn’t stand much of a chance of keeping up with the Colts score for score.  The Colts are scoring 28.9 points per game while ranking 9th in total offense at 379.8 yards per game behind Luck.  And they’ve gotten some key playmakers back in recent weeks in T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle and Marlon Mack that will only make them even more explosive moving forward. 

The Titans are 1-9 ATS in last 10 road games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.  The Colts are 48-27 ATS in their last 75 games after scoring 25 points or more in two consecutive games.  Tennessee is 16-34-2 ATS in its last 52 games following a win.  The Titans are 10-27-3 ATS in their last 40 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Colts are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Indianapolis is 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 November games.  The Colts are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Indianapolis. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Tennessee) - off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage between 45-55% on the season are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Colts Sunday. 

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans -2.5 

The Houston Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.  They have reeled off six straight victories following an 0-3 start.  Yet they aren’t getting any respect from the books.  They are only 2.5-point favorites here in a great spot against the Washington Redskins, who are one of the most fraudulent 6-3 teams you will ever see. 

The Texans are coming off their bye week.  It was good timing because their defense has injuries in the secondary, at linebacker and at receiver where they could get some guys back that they were missing previously.  And they now come out of the bye playing with a ton of confidence due to the six straight wins.  I think they make it seven in a row Sunday. 

The Redskins have gotten to 6-3 with smoke and mirrors.  And last week’s 16-3 win over Tampa Bay was one of the most misleading box scores of the season.  The Bucs racked up 501 total yards and 29 first downs in that game and punted once, but managed only 3 points.  They held the Redskins to just 286 total yards and outgained them by 225 for the game. 

This is a similar situation to two weeks ago when the Falcons were coming off the bye and facing the Redskins.  They rolled to a 38-14 victory while amassing 491 yards.  So, the Redskins have allowed 496 yards per game on average in their last two games against the Falcons and Bucs.  Their defense is leaky, and their offense is now one of the worst in the league. 

Indeed, the Redskins are scoring just 19.6 points per game on the season while ranking 26th in total offense at 337.4 yards per game.  You just can’t win in this league consistently with those kind of offensive numbers, which is why there’s no way they should be 6-3.  And the offense is only going to continue to be poor due to all the injuries.  The Redskins are missing three starters on the offensive line, and they have a few others questionable.  They have also been playing without their top two playmakers in Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson, as well as receiver Paul Richardson. 

The bye also gave new receiver Demaryius Thomas time to get acclimated to the offense.  The Texans, who rank 14th in total offense at 369.1 yards per game while scoring 24.0 points per game, should only continue to get better on offense now with Thomas around.  And they could finally get fellow receiver Keke Coutee back from a hamstring injury this week. 

Defensively, the Texans have one of the best units in the league.  They are giving up just 20.4 points per game while ranking 9th in total defense at 336.3 yards per game.  JJ Watt is in line to earn Comeback Player of the Year as he’s back to being his former self.  And Jadeveon Clowney is also wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks.  Watt and Clowney will be licking their chops at the opportunity to get after Alex Smith while working against a Redskins offensive line full of backups. 

Jay Gruden is 2-9 ATS after allowing 14 points or less as the coach of Washington.  The Redskins are 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.  The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a tam with a winning road record.  Washington is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games following a win. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Washington) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Texans Sunday. 

20* Vikings/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +3 

The bye week came at a great time for the Minnesota Vikings.  They had some of their star players miss last game or the last few games, and they have a good chance at getting back some this week.  WR Stephon Diggs will return from a rib injury, and there’s a good chance both S Andrew Dendejo (groin) and LB Anthony Barr (hamstring) make their returns this week as well.  Not to mention, CB Xavier Rhodes (foot) is expected to play as well. 

The Vikings will be as close to full strength now as they’ve been since Week 1.  And they’ll be highly motivated for a win here Sunday night with first place on the line in the NFC North.  They sit at 5-3-1 right now, just 0.5 games behind the Chicago Bears for first place.  I expect them to handle their business here as I believe they are the better team in both sides of the ball, and they are in a prime spot here off their bye. 

The Bears are starting to get too much respect from the books due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But those three wins came against the Jets, Bills and Lions, which are three of the worst teams in the NFL.  Their other three wins came against the Cardinals, Bucs and Seahawks.  They haven’t beaten a team that currently has a winning record yet.  In fact, they have only PLAYED one team that currently has a winning record, and that was a home loss to the Patriots.  They have simply feasted on an easy schedule. 

The Vikings have owned the Bears, going 6-1 SU In the last seven meetings.  Mike Zimmer is 9-1 ATS off a division win as the coach of Minnesota.  Chicago is 6-24 ATS in its last 30 games after scoring 25 or more points in two consecutive games.  The Bears are 0-8 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to lose by 15.4 points per game on average the next week.  Take the Vikings Sunday.