Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Pittsburgh Pirates +101

The Pittsburgh Pirates have the advantages on the mound and at the plate tonight over the Houston Astros and should not be underdogs as a result.  The Pirates are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season with one of the most improved offenses in baseball.  The Astros are missing nearly half their offense due to injury and scoring 4.4 runs per game this season.

The Pirates just scored a total of 25 runs in their 3-game sweep of the Twins last series.  They should stay hot against Michael Burrows, who is 3-6 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 11 starts for the Astros this season while allowing 38 earned runs and 13 homers in 63 1/3 innings.  Burrows is 1-2 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in five home starts.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with the Astros having a 5.20 ERA this season.

Bubba Chandler has struggled, but he has been better than Burrows.  He is 1-6 with a 5.02 ERA in 11 starts this season allowing just 7 homers in 52 innings.  He has posted a 4.40 ERA in his six road starts.  The Pirates rank in the top half of baseball with a 4.07 ERA as a bullpen.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Pirates Tuesday.

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20* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Marlins/Nationals OVER 9

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in Game 2 of this series tonight.  The Nationals are 38-20-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.4 runs per game.  The Marlins are 37-21-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.2 runs per game and allowing 4.6 runs per game.  This total of 8 is too short for Game 1 tonight.

Due to so many injuries to their rotation, the Miami Marlins will make this a bullpen game starting with Lake Bachar.  Their bullpen has posted a 4.89 ERA on the road this season, and I expect the Nationals to hang a big number on them today.

The Marlins should crush Miles Mikolas, who is one of the worst starters in baseball.  Mikolas is 1-4 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 12 games this season, including 1-2 with a 7.66 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in five home games allowing 19 earned runs and 7 homers in 22 1/3 innings.  He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with the Nationals having a 4.64 ERA overall and a 5.12 ERA at home.

The OVER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings with 10 or more combined runs in six of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on A's/Cubs OVER 7.5

This total of 7.5 has been adjusted down too much for the winds blowing in at Fenway Park tonight.  These two starters will still get rocked.  The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the A's and Cubs with 8 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 meetings, and 11 or more combined runs in seven of them.

Rookie Gage Jump will be making just his 2nd career start.  The first did not go well as he allowed 4 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings to the Mariners.  The Cubs are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season with one of the better offenses in the National League.  The A's have a 4.49 ERA as a bullpen this season with one of the worst units in baseball.

Jameson Taillon is 2-4 with a 5.37 ERA in 11 starts for the Cubs this season.  He has allowed a whopping 19 homers in 60 1/3 innings already.  Taillon has allowed 16 earned runs and 8 homers in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Tigers/Rays OVER 8.5

The Rays are scoring 4.8 runs per game with one of the best offenses in the American League.  The Tigers beat the Rays 10-9 in Game 1 yesterday for 19 combined runs, and this total of 8.5 is too short with two gas can starting pitchers going for both teams.

Jack Flaherty is 0-7 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 6.04 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in six road starts.  He has allowed 21 runs, 15 earned, 6 homers and 49 base runners in 22 1/3 innings on the road this season.  Flaherty is 0-2 with an 8.66 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in four career starts against the Rays, allowing 17 earned runs, 4 homers and 31 base runners in 17 2/3 innings.

Steven Matz is 4-2 with a 4.67 ERA in nine starts for the Rays this season allowing 23 earned runs and 7 homers in 44 1/3 innings.  Matz allowed 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 3 1/3 innings of a 11-6 loss to the Tigers in his last start against them.  

The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 10 or more combined runs in five of those seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Blue Jays/Braves Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  The Braves are 10-3-1 OVER in their last 14 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in 11 of those 14 games, and 9 or more in 10 of them.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Braves right now.

The Blue Jays have gotten a lot healthier and are starting to rake because of it.  They have scored 5 runs or more in three straight and six of their last 10 games overall.  The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games going for 11 or more combined runs in all three.

Kevin Gausman is 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA in 12 starts and 2-1 with a 3.45 ERA in five road starts.  But this will be one of his toughest tests of the season against Atlanta.  He has allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 12 innings in his last two starts against the Braves.

Bryce Elder has finally come back down to reality after a great start to the season.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of an 8-0 loss to the Red Sox in his last start.  He allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone career start against Toronto.

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket tonight as well with double-digit winds blowing out to right field in Atlanta. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Padres/Phillies NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

With both the Padres and Phillies trending under recently, we are getting value with the OVER 8 in Game 1 of this series tonight.  I think both lineups will have their way with these two overrated starters, who both offenses saw less than a week ago in San Diego and will give them an advantage getting to see them again.

Aaron Nola is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is 3-4 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 11 starts this season, allowing 36 earned runs and 10 homers in 56 2/3 innings.  Nola is 0-1 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in four home starts.

Randy Vasquez is 5-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 11 starts for the Padres this season.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts, the last of which came against Philadelphia.  Vasquez does not enjoy facing the Phillies, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.30 WHIP in two career starts against them, allowing 10 earned runs, 5 homers and 23 base runners in 10 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.