Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets -4

The Charlotte Hornets have gone 19-6 SU & 16-9 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  They have pulled to within 3.5 games of the Orlando Magic for 1st place in the Southeast Division.  They will be highly motivated to make that 2.5 games after tonight.

The spot really favors the Hornets.  They are fully healthy and will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.  They are coming off a 136-106 home win over the Miami Heat.  The starting 5 of Miller, Ball, Knueppel, Bridges and Diabate has been the best lineup in the NBA this season, and now they have scoring punch off the bench with Coby White.

The Magic are a tired team playing their 6th game in 9 days.  They are coming off two tough losses to the Hawks and Thunder on a back-to-back Monday and Tuesday.  They remain without two of their top four scorers in Franz Wagner (21.3 PPG) and Anthony Black (15.3 PPG) tonight.

The Hornets crushed the Magic 124-97 and 120-105 in their last two meetings, both in Orlando since Christmas.  It will be more of the same tonight as the Hornets are the better, more rested, healthier team coming into this one.  Bet the Hornets Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -2.5

The spot really favors the Miami Heat tonight.  They will be motivated coming off consecutive losses to the Magic and Hornets within their division.  They now trail the Magic by 0.5 games for 1st place in the Southeast Division.

The Heat have had the last two days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  This extra rest has allowed Bam Adebayo to get back healthy after sitting out the loss to the Hornets last game.  Norman Powell is back, and the only key player they are missing now is Andrew Wiggins.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, too.

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers.  They come in overvalued after going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with consecutive road wins over the Rockets following four straight home wins.  They beat the Rockets 124-116 last night.

Now the Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days.  All five starters played more than 33 minutes last nigh for the Lakers, and they aren't a very deep team.  At the very least I would expect LeBron James to sit this game, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's more.  They'll have nothing left in the tank for Miami tonight.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Line Mistake on Hawaii +15.5

I'm high on Arkansas and think they are as talented as anyone in the country.  They are very capable of making a deep run with that talent.  However, I am fading them in the Round of 64 due to the spot, which I think is being overlooked here as everyone is high on this team after winning the SEC Tournament.

Arkansas escaped with 3-point wins over Oklahoma and Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament before beating Vanderbilt 86-75 in the Championship Game on Sunday.  The Razorbacks shot 15-of-24 (62.5%) from 3-point range to beat Vanderbilt.  You tip your cap to them, but they aren't going to shoot that well again.

Now the Razorbacks are feeling 'fat and happy' after winning the SEC Tournament.  They probably think they can just show up and beat Hawaii.  They are going to be a tired team having to fly all the way out to Portland to play this afternoon game on Thursday.  They won't be prepared for Hawaii.

Hawaii only had to play two games to win the Big West Tournament after getting a bye into the semifinals.  And they were two of their best games of the season beating Fullerton 78-63 as 5.5-point favorites despite shooting just 13.6% from 3.  They beat UC-Irvine 71-64 as 1.5-point dogs in the Championship Game despite Irvine shooting 45.5% from 3.  Impressive results given the shooting numbers that went against them.

What I love about this matchup is that Hawaii actually has the height to defend Arkansas and won't be overwhelmed. Arkansas ranks 34th in the country in average height while Hawaii actually ranks 26th, so they are the taller team.  Hawaii is an elite defensive team as well.

The Rainbow Warriors rank 43rd in adjusted defense, 16th in effective FG percentage defense and 28th in 3-point percentage (30.7%) defense.  They take away the 3-pointer and are a versatile defense that can go zone if they need to to try and counter Arkansas' isolation-heavy attack.  They may just force Arkansas to hoist a ton of 3-pointers, and if they are off a little the Rainbow Warriors can hang.  Bet Hawaii Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -9.5

Wisconsin has gone 5-1 SU in its last six games against teams ranked inside the Top 10 in Kenpom.  The Badgers have wins over Illinois (twice), Purdue, Michigan State and Michigan during this stretch.  Their lone loss came by 3 to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament.

Amazingly, the Badgers have been dominant down the stretch despite playing without Nolan Winter (13.3 PPG, 8.6 RPG).  But Winter is expected back for the NCAA Tournament, and the Badgers are clearly capable of beating anyone at their best.

High Point is getting too much respect for its gaudy 30-4 record.  But the Panthers played the 341st ranked schedule in the country and didn't play anyone ranked in the Top 100 in Kenpom. They lost to the four of the five best teams they played in UAB, Southern Illinois, App State and Winthrop.

High Point is atrocious defensively ranking 161st in adjusted defense.  The Panthers rely heavily on forcing turnovers to help out their offense.  They rank 5th forcing turnovers on 21.9% of opponents possessions.  That makes this a nightmare matchup for them.  Wisconsin doesn't turn it over, ranking 3rd in the country in turnover percentage (12.8%) on offense.  This line is way too short today.  Bet Wisconsin Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Troy +13

I think this is going to be an ugly, defensive battle and in those types of games I like taking the underdog catching double-digits.  Troy ranks 309th in adjusted tempo while Nebraska ranks 218th.  Both teams rely on defense, and running down the shot clock on offense to find the best available shot.

After a blistering start to the season as part of Nebraska's record winning streak, the Huskers have cooled off substantially here down the stretch.  They have gone just 6-6 SU & 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They lost by 20 at UCLA, needed OT to beat Iowa at home and lost by 16 to Purdue in their last three games coming in.

Troy showed what it was capable of in non-conference play upsetting Kent State, Furman and San Diego State on the road while also taking USC to OT.  After a lull in play toward the end of the Sun Belt season, the Trojans have saved their best basketball for last.

They have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall beating Louisiana by 19, ULM by 15, Southern Miss by 8 and Georgia Southern by 16.  The Trojans have one of the most respected couches in the country in Scott Cross to come up with the proper game plan to compete with Nebraska.

The Trojans have some nice balance with F Victor Valdes (14.8 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.0 RPG), F Thomas Dowd (14.8 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 1.3 BPG), G Cooper Campbell (12.7 PPG, 4.2 APG, 39.1% 3-pointers) and G Cobi Campbell (9.0 PPG, 40.4% 3-pointers).  All the pressure in on the Huskers as they are 0-8 all-time in the NCAA Tournament and looking for their first win in program history.  Bet Troy Thursday.

20* Troy/Nebraska South Region No-Brainer on UNDER 138

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off when Troy meets Nebraska in the Round of 64.  This will be an ugly, low-scoring game and this total of 138 has been set too high as a result.

Troy ranks 309th in adjusted tempo.  The Trojans have gone 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall with 138 or fewer combined points in eight of those 11 games.  And that's even with playing several up-tempo teams in the Sun Belt.

Nebraska ranks 218th in adjusted tempo and 7th in adjusted defense.  The Huskers have gone 20-6 UNDER in their last 26 games overall.  They went for 132 combined points with Purdue, 124 with UCLA and 140 at the end of regulation with Iowa in their last three games coming in.

With neither team looking to push the tempo, this game will be one of the best defensive battles of the opening round.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NDSU/Michigan State East Region No-Brainer on UNDER 143.5

Michigan State is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 253rd in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted defense.  Nothing comes easy against the Spartans and they don't allow 2nd chance opportunities ranking 1st in defensive rebound rate.

North Dakota State also plays slow ranking 239th in adjusted tempo.  The Bison were a great rebounding team this season but a lot of that was due to the opposition in the Summit League.  They won't get any easy 2nd chance points against Michigan State, and it will be a lot of one shot and done on offense for both teams as both are great rebounding teams.

North Dakota State is 11-4 UNDER in its last 15 games overall.  The Bison just went for 132 combined points with North Dakota, 124 with Omaha and 141 with Oral Roberts in their three Summit League Tournament games.  This total of 143.5 is very high for a game involving NDSU right now.

Michigan State has been in a lot of overs lately which has inflated this total.  But teams have shot 45.5% or better from 3 against them in four of their last five games.  That's unsustainable, especially since they were great at defending the 3 prior to that.  Even after that onslaught, the Spartans still rank 112th defending the 3 at 32.9% for the season.  The Bison will get nothing easy against them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.