Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Boston Red Sox -152

I'll hop back on the Red Sox again Tuesday after cashing them in Monday in a 4-2 victory in Game 1 of this series with the A's.  The reasons are mostly the same as we have two teams headed in opposite directions, plus the Red Sox have a big advantage on the mound tonight.

The Red Sox have gone 18-2 in their last 20 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in 14 of those 20 games.  The A's are 4-20 in their last 24 games overall and have been held to 2 runs or fewer in 13 of those 24 games.  The injuries just keep piling up for them as they are now without All-Star C Shea Langeliers.

Rookie Jake Bennett is proving he belongs in the big leagues.  He is 6-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 10 starts this season, allowing just 17 earned runs, 4 homers and 9 walks in 59 1/3 innings.  He has allowed just 6 earned runs in 38 2/3 innings in his last six starts for a 1.40 ERA during this stretch.  Boston is 5-0 in Bennett's last five starts with all five wins coming by 3 runs or more.

Rookie Gage Jump has been overwhelmed in his first season in the big leagues.  He is 0-5 with an 8.31 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 20 earned runs and 7 homers in 21 innings.  The A's are obviously 0-5 in those five starts.  Bet the Red Sox Tuesday.

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15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Astros -105

The Houston Astros are highly motivated for wins right now.  They are just 1.5 games out of the wild card and just 2 games out of 1st place in the AL West.  The Angels are tied with the Rockies for the worst record in baseball at 42-65 this season.  Given their motivational advantage and their advantages both on the mound and at the plate, getting the Astros at nearly even money tonight is a gift.

Peter Lambert is 8-5 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 17 starts this season allowing just 33 earned runs and 11 homers in 98 innings with 94 K's.  He has actually been at his best on the road, going 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA in six road starts.  Lambert has been on a roll of late with a 1.52 ERA in his last four starts while allowing just 4 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings with 26 K's.  He held the Angels to 2 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in his lone start against them this season.

Reid Detmers is 3-7 with a 4.13 ERA in 21 starts for the Angels this season, including 0-5 with a 4.09 ERA in 11 home starts.  Detmers does not enjoy facing the division rival Astros, going 1-4 with a 7.19 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 11 career starts against them.  He has allowed 41 earned runs and 9 homers in 51 1/3 innings in those 11 starts.  Bet the Astros Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/White Sox OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Yankees and White Sox tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with whopping 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.  It was a similar forecast last night when these teams combined for 14 runs, and it will be more of the same in Game 2 tonight.

The White Sox are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season with one of the most improved offenses in baseball.  They should get to the overrated Garret Cole, who is 3-5 with a 3.92 ERA in 11 starts this season while allowing 11 homers.  Cole is 1-3 with a 4.73 ERA in five road starts.  He has posted a 3.99 ERA in six career starts against the White Sox allowing 17 earned runs and 6 homers in 38 1/3 innings.

The Yankees are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season and just broke out for 9 runs in Game 1 yesterday.  They should get to Anthony Kay, who is 7-4 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 19 starts and two relief appearances this season.  He is 0-1 with a 9.72 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in two career starts against the Yankees, allowing 9 earned runs and 15 base runners in 8 1/3 innings.

The White Sox and Yankees have combined for at least 8 runs in five of their last six meetings, including 14 runs or more three times.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Orioles/Tigers OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Orioles and Tigers tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with whopping 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center.  These teams combined for 13 runs in Game 1 yesterday, and it should be more of the same today given the forecast.

The Orioles have scored at least 3 runs in 14 of their last 15 games overall including 5 runs or more in nine of them.  This is where regression finally hits Detroit starter Troy Melton, who has posted some unsustainable numbers in 10 starts this season.  Melton has walked 8 batters in his last two starts and has allowed 17 base runners in 10 2/3 innings to two of the worst offenses in baseball in the Royals and Angels.

The Tigers have scored at least 4 runs in 18 of their last 26 games overall.  They will hang a big number on Dean Kremer, who is 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA in six starts this season while allowing 18 earned runs and 10 homers in 32 innings.  Kremer is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA in three road starts.  He is 0-2 with an 8.43 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in two career starts against Detroit, allowing 10 earned runs and 21 base runners in 10 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Rays OVER 8

The Texas Rangers have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team in the 2nd half of the season.  They have gone 30-8 OVER In their last 38 games overall and 16-1 OVER in their last 17 games.  The Rangers and their opponents have gone for at least 9 combined runs in 15 of their last 17 games overall, and 8 runs or more in 16 of them.

The Rays have a solid offense scoring 4.5 runs per game.  I expect them to get to Cal Quantrill, who is 3-3 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.31 WHIP this season.  He is 0-2 with a 4.29 ERA in five starts, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 21 innings.  He allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings of a 15-1 loss to the Braves in his last start.

The Rangers are red hot at the plate scoring 3 runs or more in 12 of their last 14 games overall, including 7 runs or more six times.  That's bad news for Griffin Jax, who has regressed big time of late with a 5.00 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 15 earned runs in 27 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on San Diego Padres -1.5 (+120)

The Padres just swept the Marlins over the weekend winning all three games by multiple runs.  They climbed to within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the National League and are highly motivated to get into the playoffs.  The Colorado Rockies have the worst record in baseball at 42-65 on the season and are just simply playing out the string at this point.

The Padres have a massive advantage on the mound tonight that should have them winning this game by multiple runs.  Michael King is 6-7 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 4-4 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 11 home starts.  He is 4-3 with a 2.25 ERA in 13 night starts this season.  He tossed a complete game shutout in a 6-0 victory over the Rockies in his last start against them.

Michael Lorenzen is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 3-9 with a 6.71 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 22 games this season, which includes 21 starts.  He has allowed 75 earned runs in 100 2/3 innings.  Lorenzen does not enjoy facing the Padres, going 0-2 with a 8.68 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in four career starts against them, allowing 18 earned runs and 37 base runners in 18 2/3 innings with just 11 K's.  

The Padres are 8-1 in their last nine meetings with the Rockies with seven wins by 2 runs or more.  That includes 6-0 in their six meetings in San Diego with all six wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Diamondbacks/Pirates OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Diamondbacks and Pirates tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 12-15 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates have one of the most improved offenses in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 14 of their last 21 games overall.  The Diamondbacks have scored at least 3 runs in 14 of their last 16 games, and at least 5 runs in nine of their last 14 games.  Both offenses should stay hot given the favorable forecast tonight.

Brandon Pfaadt is 5-1 in spite of a 4.71 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in eight starts and 10 relief appearances this season.  He has allowed 34 earned runs in 65 innings.  Pfaadt does not enjoy facing the Pirates, going 1-0 with a 6.06 ERA in three career starts against them while allowing 11 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.

Bubba Chandler has been a major disappointment for the Pirates this season.  He is 3-8 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 19 starts and one relief appearances this season.  Chandler has been at his worst at home, going 2-3 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in eight starts while allowing 20 earned runs in 39 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Marlins OVER 8

The Marlins and Phillies combined for 15 runs in Game 1 yesterday.  They also combined for 16 and 10 runs in their previous two meetings.  It will be more of the same tonight in Game 2, and this total of 8 is too low as both of these starting pitchers are getting too much respect.

Aaron Nola may be the most overrated starter in baseball.  He is 3-8 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 21 starts this season while allowing 70 earned runs and 25 homers in 108 1/3 innings.  He has allowed multiple earned runs in 19 of his 21 starts this season.

Sandy Alcantara is 10-6 with a 4.07 ERA in 22 starts for the Marlins this season while allowing 65 earned runs in 143 2/3 innings with just 110 K's.  He is 1-3 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last four starts against the Phillies, allowing 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 19 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.