Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Cleveland Cavaliers -13.5

The Denver Nuggets were able to win their first game without Nikola Jokic.  They got that one game bump without their superstar and pulled off the 106-103 upset as 7-point road dogs to the Toronto Raptors.  I would also assume the Raptors took them lightly.

Game 2 without Jokic is where the Nuggets come back down to reality.  It would be different if they had Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun, but they don't and are down four starters.  Jokic's backup in Jonas Valanciunas just suffered a long-term injury in his first game starting in his place against Toronto.  It has gone from bad to worse, and even Jamal Murray is on the injury report tonight.

The Nuggets certainly don't want to be this short-handed against one of the best teams in the NBA in the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The Cavs have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their last two were very impressive, winning by 12 in San Antonio and by 16 at home against Phoenix.  They will make easy work of the Nuggets tonight, too.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

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20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska -2

Nebraska is off to a 13-0 start this season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Huskers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and that will be on display tonight as they host Michigan State in their Big Ten home opener.

The Huskers have won 17 straight games dating back to the NIT last season.  They went on the road and upset Illinois 83-80 as 9-point dogs which followed up their 90-60 home win over Wisconsin as 2.5-point favorites to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play.

Michigan State has only played one true road game all season, and it was a lackluster 76-72 road win at Penn State as 12.5-point favorites.  The Spartans will be in over their heads here in what will be their toughest test of the season.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Sam Houston/WKU OVER 165.5

Sam Houston State is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-2 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Bearkats and their opponents have combined for at least 162 points in seven of those nine games.

What makes them an OVER team is ranking 36th in adjusted tempo and 30th in average length of offensive possession.  They are a solid offensive team ranking 98th in adjusted offense and 85th in 3-point percentage.

Western Kentucky also profiles as an OVER team and will gladly run with the Bearkats.  The Hilltoppers rank 42nd in adjusted tempo and 70th in average length of offensive possession.  They will attack the rim, and Sam Houston ranks 333rd in 2-point percentage defense at 58.2%.  WKU ranks 293rd in defending the 3, and the Bearkats want to shoot a ton of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington Wizards ML +100

This is a terrible spot for the struggling, banged up Brooklyn Nets.  They are coming off consecutive blowout home losses to the Rockets by 26 and the Warriors by 13.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that loss to the Rockets last night, and they will be short-handed tonight.

The Nets will be without their top three scorers in Michael Porter Jr. (25.8 PPG), Cam Thomas (21.4 PPG) and Nicolas Claxton (13.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.2 APG).  I give them no shot of keeping this game competitive with the Washington Wizards without these guys.

The Wizards have quietly gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss to the Suns on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat the Raptors by 21 as 8.5-point home dogs, the Grizzlies by 4 as 8-point home dogs and upset the Bucks as 10.5-point road dogs.

A big reason for their resurgence is the return to health of one of the most underrated young superstars in the game in Alex Sarr (17.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.3 BPG).  They are missing Kyshawn George (15.0 PPG), but they have seven of their top eight scorers healthy and forming a nice chemistry right now.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -12.5

This is a terrible spot for the short-handed Sacramento Kings playing without their two best players in Sabonis and LaVine.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 120-106 home loss to the Boston Celtics last night.

The Kings are really struggling, going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their three games overall with blowout losses to the Lakers by 24, the Clippers by 41 and the Celtics by 14.  They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days tonight, so they will have nothing left in the tank for the Suns.

Phoenix had yesterday off and will be motivated to bounce back from a road loss to Cleveland.  That ended a 4-game winning streak for them and a 6-game ATS winning streak.  This is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They should get Grayson Allen back tonight as he was at shootaround, so the only player they are missing is Jalen Green, who they have been without for basically the entire season.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hornets/Bucks OVER 231.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy and running the offense.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time with Ball, Bridgers, Miller and Kneuppel all expected to go tonight.  These four all average at least 19.3 points per game and are developing a nice chemistry.  They are without their most important defender in C Ryan Kalkbrenner (1.8 BPG) right now so they have to play more small ball.

The Bucks are certainly more of an OVER team with Giannis (28.9 PPG) back and healthy.  They just beat the Hornets 123-103 for 236 combined points in his return to the lineup two games ago.  The Hornets went on to go for 257 combined points with the Warriors in their next game.  It should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Hawks/Knicks NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 245.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 16-8 OVER in their last 24 games overall finishing with 245 or more combined points in 14 of their last 23 games.  It doesn't matter if Trae Young is there or not, they still play fast, efficient offense.  Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis just returned to the lineup, too.

The Knicks are 4-0 OVER in their last four games and 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games.  They just went for 266 combined points with the Spurs, 255 with the Pelicans, 253 with the Hawks and 250 with the Cavs in their last four games coming in.  This total of 245.5 is pretty short for a game involving these two teams right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Pacers OVER 237.5

The Spurs are more of an OVER team without Victor Wembenyama, their best defender and probably the best defender in the NBA.  They have to play more small ball without him and they also play faster not trying to involve him on offense.

The Spurs went 6-1 OVER in their seven games without Wembenyama leading into the NBA Cup semifinals.  They went for 237 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They lost Wembenyama to injury in the 1H against the Knicks last time out, and came from way behind to beat the Knicks 134-132 for 234.5 combined points.

The Pacers are getting healthier and playing faster, more efficient offense as a result.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 245 points with Houston, 258 with Miami and 262 with Boston.  Nesmith and McConnell are back healthy to join Siakim, Mathurin and Nembhard as the Pacers are now putting a respectable offensive team on the floor.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* CFB Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas State -14

Texas State fought hard down the stretch to make a bowl game after a 3-6 start.  They went 3-0 in their final three games with blowout wins over Southern Miss 41-14, LA-Monroe 31-14 and South Alabama 49-26.  Now they will be extra motivated to finish it off with a winning record.

Texas State is arguably the best 6-6 team in the country when you look at the numbers.  The Bobcats went 1-4 in games decided by 7 points or fewer, so they were very close to being a 10-2 team.  Their only two blowout losses came to Arizona State and James Madison, one of the best teams in the Big 12 plus a playoff team.

Texas State averages 476.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense while allowing 399.4 yards per game and 5.7 per play on defense.  The Bobcats are outgaining opponents by 77 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play, which is the sign of a team that is much better than 6-6.

I'll gladly lay the big number here with the Bobcats because they have an elite, up-tempo offense and will keep pouring on the points for four quarters.  They rank 12th in scoring offense at 36.1 points per game, 8th in total offense at 476.3 yards per game and 16th at 6.7 per play.  They don't have anyone significant in the transfer portal.

Rice only got an invite to this bowl game with a 5-7 record because other teams opted out.  I don't think the Owls even want to be here.  The Owls started 3-1 but dropped six of their final eight games, including blowout losses to North Texas 56-24 and South Florida 52-3 in their final two games.

QB Chase Jenkins hit the transfer portal, a player this putrid Rice offense could not afford to be without.  He threw for 1,025 yards with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 531 yards and five scores.  His dual-threat ability was the only thing saving this offense.  Even with Jenkins, the Owls ranks 112th in scoring offense at 19.8 points per game, 108th in total offense at 311.2 yards per game and 130th at 4.6 yards per play.  They have no chance to keep up with Texas State in this one.

Making matters worse for the offense is they will be without second-leading receiver Drayden Dickmann (37 receptions, 323 yards, 3 TD) and RB Daelen Alexander (392 yards, 3 TD).  The Owls also lost to UTSA by 48 and Memphis by 24 down the stretch.  They allowed 34 or more points in five of their final six games.  They are prone to getting blown out, and they will get blown out by a better, more motivated Bobcats team today.  Bet Texas State Friday.

20* Navy/Cincinnati Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Navy -4

For starters, Service Academies like Navy are 19-3 SU & 19-3 ATS in their last 22 bowl games.  These service academies never have any players opt out and they always show up with their best effort in these bowl games.  That will be no different for Navy in the Liberty Bowl today.

The Bearcats don't want to be here.  They lost four straight games to close out the season when they were in contention for a Big 12 title.  They have had at least a dozen players opt out of this bowl game, most notably QB Brendan Sorsby, who is listed by 247Sports as the top-ranked QB in the transfer portal.

Sorsby is completing 61.5% of his passes for 2,786 yards with a 26-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 580 yards and 9 TD as one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  It's a major blow as now the Bearcats are down to four-year senior Brady Lichtenberg who has 333 career passing yards and freshman Samaj Jones, who has just 2 pass attempts this season.

The losses are huge on defense, where almost the entire secondary is following CB coach Eddie Hicks to Arkansas.  The Bearcats will be without S Christian Harrison (66 taclkes, 1 INT), S Trevon Gola-Collard (71 tackles, 3 PD), S Jiquan Sanks (50 tackles, 4 PD), CB Logan Wilson (35 taclkles, 6 PD), DE Mikah Coleman (33 tackles), CB Ormaine Arnold (16 tackles, 3 PD), S Tayden Barnes (25 tackles) and a couple other depth pieces.  DE Dontay Corleone has declared for the NFL Draft.

The weakness of this Cincinnati defense is against the run where they allow 173.5 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  The Bearcats allowed 228 or more rushing yards in four of their final six games.  That's bad news for them going up against this potent Navy triple-option, which ranks 1st in the country at 289.3 rushing yards per game and 4th at 5.8 per carry.

Navy Senior QB Blake Horvath wants to finish his career strong as arguably the best QB in program history.  He has rushed for 1,147 yards and 15 TD, but he's the best passer they have ever had completing 61.1% of his passes for 1,472 yards and 10 TD this season.  He will have a huge game as the Midshipmen run away with this one.  Bet Navy Friday.