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Does the Quality of an Opponent Give you an NBA Pick Advantage? (02-07-2009) |
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Saturday, 07 February 2009 |
The NBA season is a long one and because of this presents a number of NBA Picks angles through the year. Some prescribe to the back to back game scenerio betting where they fade a team playing for the second night in a row! Other's look to capatilize on teams playing their last game of a long road trip (more than 5 games) as an angle to play against. In this article I decided to through another angle into the mix where I looked at the quality of teams and how they faired versus the number in certain situations. As an example, is there a profitable NBA pick when two bad teams or two good teams play each other? Well, let's take a look:
Scenerio #1
Two Bad Teams Playing Each Other
First, let's define a bad team. In this analysis these would be teams who are winning less than 40% of their games on the season. Over the last three seasons when two bad teams have met the road team has hit 54.6% ATS while the over has hit 53.5%. Both coming in a slight money maker. However, if the home team is an underdog in this matchup the road team has hit a profitable 59% versus the number while the UNDER becomes the play hitting 63.4%.
Scenerio #2
Two Good Teams Playing Each Other
As with the first scenerio let's first define a good team. For the purposes of this article a good team is any team winning 60% of more of their games on the season. In the same time span as above the home team has hit 56.2% while the under come in 56.4% of the time. Refining our approach, if the home team is listed as a dog they have grabbed the cash 59.3% of the time while the under rocks to 62%.
Scenerio #3
The most profitable angle for Winning an NBA Pick
With all of this said the most profitable angle to consider and gain an advantage is playing a home dog, two good teams, both coming off a win in their previous game. The home team covered a whopping 63.4% of the time.
After finishing #1 last season in the NBA, Michael Alexander has been red hot on the NBA Hardood hitting 70% of his selections! Join him again today he takes the books to school with more NBA Picks winners! All GUARANTEED to win!"
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