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NCAA Upset Alert (03-18-2009) |
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Wednesday, 18 March 2009 |
GONZAGA? Do they really think they are a sweet 16 or even an Elite 8 team?
Akron versus Gonzaga
Round 1 NCAA Tournament
Friday March 19th, 7:25 EST
I am very surprised that the talking heads are all seemingly supporting Gonzaga to make a huge run in the tournament. Make a long story short, I just do not see this happening for a wide array of reason. In fact, based on my Ai Simulator they will have their hands full just getting out of the first round here against Akron. There is a decent money line system that has produced a 411-294 mark making 36.4 units since 1997. Play on any team that is an average 3PT shooting team hitting 32-36.5% facing an average 3PT defense allowing 32-36.5% and after 15+ games and after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better. Akron is a strong 8-1 against the money line (+7.4 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons; 6-1 against the money line (+5.4 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season. Take Akron for a 3* LIVE MAJOR DOG.
Some items to remember when filling out those brackets. Yes, I think we all love the Cinderella story, but identifying that team is nearly impossible to do given all of the potential suitors. Keep in mind that 9 of the past 10 Champions had a winning percentage of 82% or higher, played a TOP-15 schedule, shot 37% or better from 3-point land, and shot a MINIMUM of 69% from the charity stripe. Identify those teams to make at a minimum the Sweet 16 and you will be well on your way to having a competitive bracket in your office pools.
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