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NFL TEAMS RANKED IN THE BOTTOM 3 ON THE ROAD (ATS/TOTALS) (10-20-2008) |
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Monday, 20 October 2008 |
I took a look at NFL teams ranked in the bottom 3 vs the line, and total, as Denver fits this description tonight.
I took a long hard look at tonight's Denver at New England game. One of the things I wanted to research, is how teams ranked in the bottom 3 of the league (Denver), fared when playing on the road? I took a look at these teams from an overall ATS mark, as well as totals, and also in lined games where the pointspread was close, as it is here (currently +3), so I isolated games where the pointspread was +4 to -4. I went back all the way to 1997, and if your interested in these defensively poor teams on the road, here is some information for tonight's game as well as your archives going forward. The overall record of these teams in all games on the road is 119=139-6 ATS since 1997, or they cover just 46.1% of the time. certainly not highly but a bit less than the expected outcome. When I reduced the sample set to expected competitive games where the line was +4 to -4, the results were 47-50-3 ATS, or very neutral.
I then took a look at totals, to see if these defenseless teams produced an over-abundance of over games. The results were 141-118-4 to the over, or about 54.4% of the time. Certainly a bit profitable, but if nothing that stands outside the realm of ironclad money. It also goes in the face of games with totals of 47.5 or higher (see previous article on NFL totals), although those totals in this particular part of the season, have not fared well, perhaps because the weather is at is best, mid-season in the NFL.
I then narrowed the research down to recent trends, to see if anything changed from the longterm pattern. The last 5 years with a line of -4 to +4, these teams have gone 12-9-2 while overall they have been 17-21-2. The totals over the past 5 years has been 20-19-1 for the over, so all the longterm history seems to be in sync with the short term history.
Best of luck on your week ahead, and look forward to going for my 12th straight winning week in the NFL in the week ahead!
East
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