Ben Burns Sports Handicapper Picks

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup	Selection	W/L
NHL \| Feb 02, 2012 Nashville Predators vs. Philadelphia Flyers	Philadelphia Flyers -117 at 5 DIMES	Won $100
Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Predators are on an extended winning streak. Off a big comeback win and with a big divisional game (St. Louis) on deck, I expect their streak to come to an end tonight though. These teams faced each other, at Nashville, in mid-January. The Predators won that one by a score of 4-2. The Flyers had a commanding 38-35 edge in shots on goal in that one though and now they get to face the Preds here at Philadelphia. The Flyers are off a 2-1 loss vs. Winnipeg. They haven't lost two in a row yet in 2012 though and they're 4-1 the last five times that they failed to score more than one goal in their previous game. While the Preds are 5-5 (-1.2) against teams from the East, the Flyers are 8-4 (+2.8) against teams from the West. They're also 13-7 (+5.9) against teams with a winning record. The Flyers were laying -185 when they last hosted the Preds, a 3-2 Philly win almost exactly one year ago (2/3/2011) to the day. We're getting a MUCH better price this year and I feel that's providing us with excellent value. *10
NHL \| Feb 02, 2012 Chicago Blackhawks vs. Edmonton Oilers	Chicago Blackhawks -160 at 5 DIMES	Lost $160.0
Reason: I'm playing on CHICAGO. I don't regularly play road favorites. However, in this case, if they were facing the Oilers at home the Blackhawks would be much too expensive. The fact that they are playing at Edmonton, has kept the line somewhat reasonable. I expect the Hawks to be at their best and feel that the (still) fairly steep price will prove justified. The Hawks lost a tough one at Vancouver to start the second half. That was their third straight loss. They're a very talented team though, one which is also extremely well-coached. Therefore, losing streaks rarely get too long. Note that Chicago is an outstanding 11-2 (+8.8) the last 13 times it was off three or more consecutive losses. While three straight losses should provide all the incentive the Hawks need, additional motivation should come from the fact that the Oilers have beaten them twice in a row. The last time that they were here at Edmonton, the Hawks were embarrassed by a score of 9-2. Then, the Oilers added insult to injury by beating the Hawks at Chicago. The Hawks are still 14-8 against teams with a losing record though while the Oilers are still only 9-13 against teams with a winning record. (They're now an awful 32-74 / -27.1 against winning teams the past few seasons.) The Hawks are also still 6-1 their last seven games here at Edmonton. Prior to the 9-2 debacle, they'd outscored the Oilers 30-8 in winning six straight here. Its payback time. *10
NBA \| Feb 02, 2012 Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers	Total 207 un-110 at BETUS	Won $100
Reason: I'm playing on Denver and LA to finish UNDER the total. These teams faced each other at Denver last week. That game proved to be high-scoring with the Clippers earning a 109-105 victory. That result is one of the factors giving us a slightly higher O/U line to work with tonight. However, with the game now being played at LA, I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring rematch. We've seen that the "new version" of the Clippers can score. They've also been quite solid defensively too though, particularly here at home. For the season, they're allowing 93.6 points per game here, holding opponents to just 42.3% shooting. The 12 games here are averaging 193.8 combined points, seven of them staying below the total. Note that the UNDER is 1-0 when the Clippers have played a home game with an O/U line in the 205 to 209.5 range. The UNDER is now 7-2 the last nine times that they played a home game with a total in that range. The Nuggets have indeed been a high-scoring team. Although, it should be noted that their games are still averaging "only" 204.6 points per game, which is less than tonight's O/U line is currently sitting at. It should also be noted that the Nuggets have started to play some lower-scoring games of late. Last time out, they lost 100-97. That game went to OT so the score was misleading. The score was only 91-91 after regulation. Prior to that was the game vs. the Clippers. However, before that, the Nuggets played a 96-81 game against the Raptors. Note that the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go 13-7-1 the past 2+ seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. While these are different teams, its still worth mentioning that the UNDER is 10-2 the last dozen times that the Nuggets faced the Clippers at LA, including 3-0 the last three. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. *10 (Main Event)
NBA \| Feb 02, 2012 Portland Trail Blazers vs. Sacramento Kings	Total 189½ ov-116 at 5 DIMES	Lost $116.0
Reason: I'm playing on Portland and Sacramento to finish OVER the total. The Blazers are off a blowout win of Charlotte last night out. They dominated the Bobcats on both sides of the ball, earning a 112-68 victory. That game stayed below the total, partly due to it being so lopsided. It was still on pace to sneak above the total but as it was such a blowout, the teams combined for only 40 points in the fourth quarter and there was no late fouling etc. The Bobcats are only averaging 85 points per game on the road though. Tonight, the Blazers will take on a Sacramento team which averages greater than 96 per game at home. A blowout like last night is possible, but unlikely. Either way, I'm expecting a fairly high-scoring game. These teams just faced each other at Portland on 1/23. That game finished with 190 points but still stayed below the total. That's because that O/U line was set at 194.5 though. Tonight, however, we're getting a lower number to work with. Considering that the Kings score far more points per game at home (96 instead of 87!) and that the Blazers allow more on the road, I feel that the adjusted number is providing us with excellent value. Note that the Kings have already seen the OVER go 2-0 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. The OVER is now 5-1 their last six in that situation. During the same stretch, the Blazers have seen the OVER go 16-11 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. The Blazers' last visit here produced 209 combined points. That brought the OVER go 11-5 the last 16 meetings here at Sacramento. I expect those stats to improve here. *9
NBA \| Feb 02, 2012 New Orleans Hornets vs. San Antonio Spurs	New Orleans Hornets +9-104 at 5 DIMES	Lost $104.0
Reason: I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. Both teams played last night. The Hornets lost vs. Phoenix. The Spurs won and covered vs. Houston. Both teams will now be playing their fourth game in the past five nights. That's tough on any team. However, in tonight's case, I expect it to prove particularly difficult for the "aging" Spurs, who have still been playing without Ginobili. The Spurs have been trying to give their veteran players plenty of rest this season. However, last night both Duncan and Parker were forced to play more than 30 minutes. As of this writing, I'm not going to bank on it. However, given the way Popovic road him last night, I won't be at all surprised if Duncan gets the night off here. Popovic doesn't like these four games in five nights situations and probably figures he can beat the "lowly" Hornets without a full lineup. Even if Duncan does play, I expect his minutes to be limited and for Popovic to feature a heavy dose of his "bench" players. The Hornets are still playing hard. After squandering a lead last night and having lost a tough one (104-102) vs. the Spurs at New Orleans, I expect them to respond with their best effort here. Not only are the Spurs off back to back big divisional wins, they've got a showdown vs. Oklahoma City on deck. The Thunder are the top team in the Western Conference right now and they beat the Spurs by double-digits (at OKC) a few weeks ago. So, that's another reason not to fully focus on New Orleans. Note that the Spurs are just 3-8 ATS against teams with a losing record. The Hornets are 6-3 ATS on the road this season. They're also 4-1 ATS the last five times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. Catching the Spurs in a "tough spot," I expect them to hang around and keep this one close the entire way. *9
NCAA-B \| Feb 02, 2012 Wright State vs. Butler	Butler -9½-105 at 5 DIMES	Won $100
Reason: I'm playing on BUTLER. I'm well aware that this year's Bulldogs haven't dominated the Horizon the way that we've grown accustomed to. Having recently successfully played against them, I'm also well aware that they've lost three straight and that they've got an awful ATS record this season. That said, I still have a lot of respect this team. The recent losses and the poor overall pointspread record have helped to keep this line reasonably low and I expect the Bulldogs to bounce back with a win and cover. Yes, the Bulldogs have dropped three straight. However, a closer look shows that all three of those losses came on the road. This will be their first home game since mid-January. Their most recent home game came back on 1/15. The Bulldogs, laying a similar number to what they are this evening, won by a score of 71-55. Including that result, Butler is 5-2-1 ATS (8-0 SU) the last eight times it was listed as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. During the same stretch, Wright State is only 1-5-1 ATS (0-7 SU) as a road underdog in the +6.5 to +9 range. While the offense has admittedly struggled, the Butler defense remains outstanding. The Bulldogs are allowing less than 60 points per game at home and tonight they'll be facing a Wright State team that is averaging a mere 52.9 points per game on the road. I won't be surprised if the Raiders manage less than 50 here. The Bulldogs won but didn't cover at Wright State. Including that victory, they're 9-1 the last 10 meetings in the series. That includes a 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS mark the last three meetings here at Butler. While the Raiders would surely love to avenge the earlier loss, note that they're 2-4 ATS (0-6 SU) the last six times that they attempted to avenge a home defeat. I successfully played against the Raiders in their last road game. Listed as +11 underdogs at Detroit, they lost by a score of 69-53. They're now 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road in 2012 and that includes a 58-38 setback at Wisconsin-Milwaukee. I expect them to have trouble scoring once again and for the determined Bulldogs to pull away for a double-digit victory. *10