Free NBA Picks & Today's ATS Expert Basketball Betting Predictions

After losing Game 2 by only three points, the Clippers shouldn't be overly worried. They shot the ball horribly in that game and still almost came back to win (37% field goals & 27% from three.) Today, we should see vast improvements from that performance. I believe that they'll be ready for this challenge on the road. Los Angeles was actually slightly better on the road in the regular season than at home. Dallas, on the other hand, owned a better road record (% wise.) In their last meeting back in this arena, the Clippers won by nine points. One thing to know is that the Clippers were 11-1 ATS this season after playing three consecutive home games. For Dallas, they are just 2-9 ATS in their eleven games following a win as an underdog this season. I expect Kawhi to have a much stronger game and lead his Clippers to a 2-1 series lead. 

Score Prediction: 115-104 Clippers.

1* Free Sharp Play on Wolves vs Suns over

The Minnesota Timberwolves hold a 2-0 lead and have been doing it with their defense and some help from the Suns. Minnesota had the leagues number one defense and it showed up in the first two games, holding the zSuns to under 100 points in both home games. They were also helped out by sloppy guard play from the suns. Booker fouled out and committed 6 to and the team had 19 in total. Booker, Durant and Bradley Beal combined to shoot 18 for 45 and I dont expect that to happen at home. Depending on the market, the total was 214.5 in Game 1 and 213.5 in Game 2. The adjustment has been made for Game 3, as the number is a full seven points lower (depending on the market). The Suns played well at home during the regular season against the Wolves, and have covered in six straight at home. Phoenix failed to crack 10 made 3-point field goals in both Games 1 and 2, and Grayson Allen’s injury has a lot to do with that. They ranked fourth in 3-point field goal percentage at home this season. I think Phoenix will play a lot better on their home court and i think they have dropped this number too much.

Play on the OVER.

Dave's Friday Free Play:

1* on Phoenix Suns -4.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns shot terribly in Minnesota in the first two games of this series.  They will shoot it much better at home and should get a lot more from Booker and Beal than they got in those two games in Minnesota.  Keep in mind the Suns won all 3 matchups in the regular season by double-digits and know what it takes to attack the Timberwolves.  They will put their best foot forward tonight with their season on the line in Game 3.  Phoenix is 35-21 ATS in its last 56 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  The Suns are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 100 points or less.  Take Phoenix.

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Cavaliers vs Magic

1 ET | Kia Center

5-Unit Bet on the Over currently priced at 201.5 points.

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 22-10-1 Over record good for 69% winning bets since 2006. The requirements are:

·      Bet the Over.

·      The home team priced between a 3.5-point favorite and a 3.5-point underdog.

·      The game occurs in the playoffs.

·      The home team is coming off a home win.

·      The road team shot less than 25% from beyond the arc.

Consider betting 75% preflop and then look to add the remaining 25% of your 8-Unit best bet at 196.5 points during the first half of action.

My predictive model shows an 82% probability that the Magic have an 85% probability that they will score 111 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In home games over the last five seasons the Magic have seen the Over go 31-11 for 74% winning bets when they have met these performance measures in games that had a posted total of 200 or more points.